People have discussed how there's been a lot of bitcoin selling among 5+ year hodlers.
What often gets left out of the discussion is that over time, more and more hodlers naturally age into being 5+ year hodlers. So, some long-term hodlers are selling, but that's part of more and more people becoming long-term hodlers.
At 30%, the percentage of bitcoin that has been unmoved onchain for 5+ years is near its peak level.
hodlwave.com
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What I realized the other day is there is a five year window of buyers whose cost basis was .00036$ to 200$ from 2009 to 2013. Compared to the institutional buyers moving markets today, Their cost basis was extremely small and they control a majority of supply. I still think the four year cycle is valid, And we are due for a major correction, Maybe after one more all time high, But people like the Winklevoss twins were in way before BlackRock and these are the kind of people who determine the tops and bottoms.
Also there are time-lock possibilities with nostr:nprofile1qqsvetzrdtkpc8kz4eg54hstse8rx7cye5cvcgw9p4e7pt4s6nadw9gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0ca38a7 where you need to move your coins approx every year…
This trend should continue IMO and the % should and could raise in the upcoming years if the average of returns for holders would diminish over time as it is doing in the last 5+ yrs
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Thanks for always bringing clarity Lin!
Dec 17 here and still here.
Hodl life
The other thing that people overlook is that many OG’s had weak self custody setups….some of these on chain moves are simply setups changes.
I bet 10%.
Makes sense
That’s true but long term hodlers also age out of their bodies, or lose their keys. So the percentage of longterm holders that are both interested and able to sell could be going up despite the percentage amount of sats moved falling.
Your point kinda makes the drawdown from the peak even more dramatic. It should naturally rise but it appears to be the largest drawdown in the history of that chart!
My bitcoin will begin joining that statistic a year from now 😎
