To the people who tell me this isnāt a bubble.
There are early signs everywhere for people paying attention. @NVK
Discussion
Was people adopting bitcoin a bubble?
Why would companies adopting bitcoin be a bubble?
The bubble is in the MNAV not in the adoption
Few
I think that's the implication, people will buy bitcoin but not _adopt_ it and they will do so with delicious frothy leverage but when the lubricant dries up, the rubber will break.
That will be a minority imo.
There will always be traders.
Yeah youāre right. Just because something bubbles up doesnāt mean there isnāt something real underlying it
I was waiting for your response ššæšæšæ
Btw in a more serious response, what we are seeing is the beginning of hyperbtc and the death of all fiat currencies and fiat systems. This will be the case of the financial system eating itself and making itself new in the process
You're right š Fren
This post will age very well. We all know the feeling but we arenāt there yet. Kinda like that specific rumble in your tummy before the āOH Shitā moment 15 mins later.
I donāt know if a bubble or not but I know itās just the beginning
Not even remotely a bubble.
cheaper sats later :P
Do you see that they are just over leveraged and that will be the needle to pop it?
Bitcoin is a bubble yet I still believe it can be useful because of the cryptography behind it.
Itās also just cool. Use bitcoin, hodl, do whatever you want with it but donāt listen to economists who try to connect it to inflation or anything deeper than that.
Maybe they are riding this 'cycle' and dumping once they are in the profit?
Mvrv indicates that we are not in a bubble but right in the middle of value
If it went to 150 tomorrow it still wouldn't be a bubble
If it goes to 300 then it might be a bubble assuming it did a very quickly
"Interesting perspective! Value can be subjective, and bubbles often depend on sentiment as much as metrics. š Let's keep an eye on the market dynamics and see how the narrative evolves! #CryptoThoughts"
Iām talking about a treasury company bubble explicitly
What's the difference between a Treasury company bubble and a general BTC bubble?
@big curt Bubbles are traditionally a one and done market phenomena. Think dotcom, shitcoins, etc
Bitcoin itself is not a bubble; rather itās been a hype cycle driven boom-bust asset, now in itās 5th cycle of adoption and price discovery. Oversold and overbought at times (mvrv us one way measure this) but calling it a bubble is misuse of the word imo
You're right
The word bubble implies that there's no value there basically
You're right š Fren
Remember In 2018ā¦. Bitcoin at $4K.
People Thought it was expensive thenā¦ still think itās expensive now at $106K.
Still buying. Every time
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This is not so much a metric for a BTC bubble, but a measure of bitcoin capture.
Both are true
You mean the stock price of the treasuary companies is inflated or the actual price of bitcoin?
Yes
I don't understand what a bubble is in this context. Is the adoption of personal computers a bubble? Or the adoption of accounting standards for businesses?
A bubble in any other context refers to the oversaturation of interest in something that lacks a commensurate utility.
Do you presume there will be a point at which it will be disadvantageous for a company to hold bitcoin?
To quote Buffet: When the tide goes out we'll see who's swimming naked. Companies that are just playing degenerate fiat games with leverage will be liquidate andwe'll get cheaper sats.
Number will continue to go up but there will be a few Bitcoin treasury companies that blow up along the way and Im so keen on the discounts they bring
Where is the price action? Is liquidity getting redirected into the stupid mNAVs?
Wow - you'd have thought that 250 odd companies putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet would have moved the price some.
Yes, agree we need a massive pump otherwise it's just another gold.
...and to the people that say games arent being played. Well I'm going to have to TRUST them on that, without POR.
OTC. The retail order book is 95% bot traded at this point.
OTC is acting like a buffer?
I've finally managed to secure a lombard loan against some bitcoin.
The timing is hideous considering I started the process like 6 weeks ago when we were at $80K.
I'm paying close attention to your stoopid lines š¤£
In the past I would trade this wave and make money. Not anymore. Been there, done that.
The issue is not buying, but knowing when to close the position. Thatās the part that people always fuck up. Smashing buy in these moments is the easy partā¦ taking profit when the euphoria is near its peak is insanely hard.
It takes you being OK with all your euphoric āfriendsā thinking youāre an idiot or a coward. It takes you sitting with the agonizing discomfort of being āwrongā for a while and then being fine with watching people you care about get wrecked eventually. It takes seeing the āmore perfectā selling point spike up again and again (or even be way higher than you anticipated- because itās really easy to underestimate stupidity).
It doesnāt matter when you sell- in that moment youāve gone on the short side of an asset you believe inā¦ and youāre a turncoat. Being a successful trader long term takes a special kind of fucked up personā¦ you may be lucky enough to learn this viscerally like me.
Most importantlyā¦ all of this shit takes energy. Energy that can be put elsewhere- like building things.
So to all of you who decide to play the leverage game this round (yes, thatās what publicly traded BTC treasury companies are): enjoy it if you canā¦ and godspeed. I wish you the best, and I hope you can ride the wave in such a way thatās itās a worthwhile venture to you.
Despite being fundamentally bullish and agreeing with many of the takes here about where we are headedā¦ my time, capital and energy are going to building Conduit and stacking in self custody this round. Blinders on.
Cheers and good luck my friends. Be kind to one another- itās just money.
LFG