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Contraversial Post:

https://nostr.download/9e42d1558568c1e6a522adbe0866b71daf3f6c3dc919f04e16f62086d67fa132.mp4

BITCOIN IS DESTINED TO FAIL ON ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY.

No reality where BTC overtakes Gold

Intro

First things first I should straight up tell you the reader, that BTCs explosive growth is not organic. Companies like 3 Arrow capital showed you can greatly game the system with shitcoins, absorbing that economic energy and channeling it into real world assets and Bitcoin where there had to be at least one sound asset to legitimize the whole effort of decentralized money. With the collapse of firms like Binance and 3 Arrow, Wall Street has completely gamed the ebbs and flows of crypto capitalization. Dont believe me? We are at the end of a Crypto Cycle in 2 months and there hasnt been a hint of Shitcoin appreciation completely locking up the volitality of Bitcoin to be constant more or less by 10% of a target price set by Blackrock, Microstrategy and a few influencial holders of BTC from sanctioned states like North Korea and Iran, interestingly enough Russia has joined that sector. I should note alot of the downward pressure is also the US selling btc to slam the price down but I cant prove that, and Coinbase where most btc from major btc Miners globally end up. Turns out you can centralize mining if the BTC isnt being spent in the real Economy. Save this idea for later.

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Wall Street/CIA carefully plans BTC corruption

Behind every Influencer that you watch daily, every podcast economist with a British and Canadian accent with 20 years experience in tradfi and every "Libretarian" that is promoting Trumps executive orders as genius is essentially a funding campaign by the CIA to ensure you stick to Americas financial institutions.

How? Before I get to that point lets talk about some recent discoveries and procliamations by the US government.

In truth I debated with myself how to approach this topic, I could bore all 10 of you with a 100 page essay of connecting the dots in the news to paint my picture of the current reality, but i decided to tackle this a different way.

How is bitcoin failing from its fundamental mission?

Peer to Peer money, that was Saitoshis initial description of Bitcoins success, not BTC being valued by the BIS as collateral for a loan. The idea for success is that people pay their employees in bitcoin, the employees go into the real networked economy and spend that BTC earned. Thats what a real economy looks like, and when the CIA was tasked to eliminate such a threat as alternative shadow banking networks and money not tied to Usury, (which is debt based money designed to take everything from a country to a small group of non christians historically), They knew shutting down BTC wouldnt work in the long run because you cant kill an idea BUT you can corrupt it.

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Lets talk about some recent disturbing news

What triggered me to finally speak out was this bit of news about Tether this year aggressively and increasingly selling off bitcoin on their balance sheet in favor of slowly replacing it with Gold, Gold miners and Gold leveraged companies.

I knew it was happening as early as May but in June, Tether completely understood the geopolitical realities of whats coming. Similar to Bukele recently buying 50 million in Gold which is more than the entire budget of BTC daily buys this year. That sale was a panic buy because Bukele already established mining plans for Gold in El Salvador last yeat theres no need to buy it but the current political situation is moving quickly to a completely two stack divided global economy.

The problem with Western countries is that theyve been convinced that ultimately what matters to a country is its balance sheet. Number goes up means you can afford anything doesnt matter how that number goes up, the change now which Russia and China for the last decade has been warning about is that this will change. It doesnt matter how high the number is if Nations that produce the things you need are no longer buying the scheme.

That brings us to news number 2 China being threatened with War and Sanctions is in a position where it must hit the global reset button.

This year China officially opened up its economy by essentially creating a Gold backed Yuan returning economics back to the traditional Gold started prior to the 1970s. There are numerous Gold vaults outside of China in Brics nations like in Saudi Arabia, UAE that states that Gold is tethered and exchangable into Yuan and vice versa. China has no control over those vaults thus this solves the trust problem about using the Yuan as a reserve currency in Major economic hubs around the World. This is also just the beginning, if this works very rapidly the world will return to Gold as the basis or measurement of economic value.

This is not a pipe dream, constantly we hear the US capital markets are the deepest and most mature, however again this doesnt matter if the US provides no value at all behind those markets besides the threat of terrorism and War. This isnt a hard concept to grasp for those living outside of the US and Europe, its just a institutional brainwashing and fear of what will happen if its impelemented.

Essentially whats going to happen is that countries will be forced to make a decision within 5 years or increasingly less. Go to War with the US or join Chinas Reset plan where Gold is the reserve and Russia heads the design of the BRICS international settlement layers. In the past this process should have take 20 years but now the US has become more and more desperate to solve its critical materials and energy problem which completely locks up the US ability to wage unlimited forever War and create terrorism. Its a Mafia style system not one really run my any metrics of sustainability.

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Lets return to Wall Street/CIA plans for BTC

Theres alot more in the news but I have to cut this short. But lets just talk about how the BTC trajectory cant be sustained.

First we have to come to the conclusion that in order for btc global value to continue it requires two things. Peer to Peer real world economics in order to assert a native value for commodity produced like an employer needing to pay his employees in btc because thats what the employee perfers, or the alternative a value placed upon on it by existing moneys with the value of peer to peer transaction like the US dollar aka Microstrategy using debt to create the demand side pressure inflating the price.

The argument is well what about Gold, why does that get a pass? Because China, India and Russia the biggest GDP by PPP economies just said so.

Without the peer to peer real economh aspect the CIA figured they could use the principals of BTC to actually help the US agenda.

We've had a successful soft coup of Argentina by Milei promising to use BTC to usher in a new economy reality, and then immediately sent the Gold to the UK and Israel oh and selling off natural resources to Black rock and exclusivity rights meant for the state like access to water to Israel. And now currently that same playbook was deployed by Donald Trumps promise of a BTC national reserve.

This will never happen, but the promise is all thats needed to win an election but more importantly the need to keep society hopeful and calm. Instead the first thing approved was a stablecoin/CBDC establishment more on that later.

To note Canadas previous election had a bitcoin candidate promising both loyality to the US/Israel in a trump style campaign but that failed and now Conor Mcgregor a bitcoin candidate again is attempting the same in Ireland without a single hint of a economic plan only loyality to the US and Israel in a Trump style campaign.

This style is literally formulated in a lab now and many opposition leaders parroting the same points without a plan or reason, only bitcoin and the desire to stop immigration by going to war for US/Israel, problems created by Neoliberalism fabricated in the halls of the US and Israel.

The only assured thing in their plan is support for a CBDC/Stable coins to manage Crypto interactions with Bitcoin etc.

But to note a completed CBDC system will be introduced before any attempt to allow Wall Street to fully allow BTC value to flow freely and under the very watchful eyes of the bitcoiners that will just let it happen. Why?

Because in America, Greed always wins even against the individuals basic intuition to survive.

You want a million dollar BTC, then accept that the USD centralized digital and also that you concede to becoming sanctionable if you ever decide you are independent of our slave system.

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Conclusions

So lets draw some conclusions, at the moment its clear the US and Western Countries will not allow BTC economies to organically grow and the final nail planned is stable coin usage. Stable coins are de facto CBDCs because to get a stablecoin wallet you will have to be KYCd.

That only leaves BTC as savings, that is completely fine because then Wall street can control the price and flows of value nothings fundamentally changed in this scenario, you anon wont spend your btc and so like a house youll use The US institutions for loans thus the Usury balance is kept and secured they still own you and can sanction you for political instability.

The added bonus is the US can use this new system to kill their debt on paper while continuing the agenda of terrorism and War trading citizens lives for 1% well being in their bunkers.

Meanwhile the World splits into 2 reserve currency status, where eastern nations use Gold/Yuan/Multipolar currency reserves and the American empire including Europe will increasingly see more activity of trade using a US CBDC/Stable coin between banks. European Euro for instance will fade in relevance for goods and services, American banks and political system wins.

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Discussion

Consciousness Incarnate 3mo ago

Thanks for the bottom signal

2bc1cc92... 3mo ago 💬 1

Here’s the emerging reality:

East: A gold-backed multipolar settlement system (Yuan + BRICS vaults).

West: CBDCs, Stablecoins, total surveillance, soft financial prisons.

The dream was that Bitcoin would replace these systems. The reality is more subtle: Bitcoin will live between them in the shadows & cracks.

It won’t replace the dollar or become China’s reserve but it will remain the one tool to step outside both worlds, briefly, when you need to be sovereign.

The Bitcoin-as-global-reserve dream has failed. Wall Street controls the narrative. Governments won’t let a parallel economy scale.

But Bitcoin still works as designed. You can hold it, send it, and save yourself. It’s the most powerful tool the common man has ever had against financial slavery.

Bitcoin is not the messiah. But it is still our shield. And in the cracks of empires, that shield might mean the difference between slavery and sovereignty.

nostr:nevent1qqsg6uurjfwsedrnxg7dlsjzdsu09v9zmu53gcnxgyw3nrt6znpzpfspzemhxue69uhkummnw3ezu6rfve5hx6pwdaexw0kcn8c

nicodemus 3mo ago

Yeah… see, I’ve heard all of this before. And it continues to be, at best, dubious speculation.

Did anyone *really* believe that bitcoin would become a unit of account via monetary velocity overnight?

Did anyone really believe nation states would abdicate their power to control the flow of wealth?

Of course nation states are deciding alternatives (like gold)! They already own that monopoly! Nevermind the susceptibility of gold to violence - which they also own a monopoly on.

Listen - for those that need to hear it:

Bitcoin has proven itself as a Astor of Value. Thats step 1.

It’s slowly building up more and more momentum as a Method of Exchange. Thats step 2. Nostr is proof of this. The scale is still really small.

Once a critical mass of exchange is happening with sats - by the people (!!), not corps who answer to nation states (!!) - *then* we start the slow process of bitcoin becoming a Unit of Account.

The authorities may *never* accept bitcoin. This does NOT matter. Ask people in Nigeria whether it matters. Look at the primitive numbers we see on cross-border remittances in bitcoin.

If bitcoin grows as an economy mostly in the hands of plebs, then this means it depends on distribution. That distribution is going to happen slowly. In fact, you should *prefer* it to happen slowly and more organically. (But spend your sats wisely - not on stupid influencer shit).

Face it - peaceful revolutions don’t happen overnight nor do they happen with approval from the existing authority.

It’s gonna get way, WAY messier. If you make enough value to improve your life along the way, by all means - TAKE IT. And distribute the sats.

But don’t buy into this crap that bitcoin is destined to fail because it faces opposition and it’s growing slowly - thats what it is supposed to be doing.

Who gives a shit what the nations do? Survive, outlast, let freedom money work for you in every way it can.

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago

My post brings up the trajectory not use case of BTC. It may shine some light on why Jack Dorsey also said without P2p bitcoin will fail. What i want people to be aware of is two things that even now after reading my post people wont recognize:

1.) Its clear that people will accept CBDCs and total monetary capture in the real commodity with only a promise that Wall Street will pump their bags. This gives government unlimited power over people who claim to want freedom money. Its regulatory capture of BTC eventually if not already because governments still have leverage to shut down big businesses and supply chains.

2.) BTC from this point on in the current trajectory appears to be defined by the products Wall Street provide and already the banks are rehypotheticating Btc based on this, the same happenes to Gold until China and Russia said ok enough is enough. It wont be a million dollars like even the great Samson Mow suggests in this environment and if no one is spending BTC in the real economy its destined to eventually become less important as time goes on by design.

MacTrap 3mo ago

This goes for #btc and any other #cryptocurrency

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago

Unfortunately I agree but the arguement for the last 14 years was that BTC was not crypto its something more because it has to be. BTCs raise happened because people recognized we have to at least try to break the debt based system. Then the people that became millionaires are trying to convince everyone after us that Microstrategy/blackrock ETF shares owning 10% of the supply is good for bitcoin.

MacTrap 3mo ago

That "btc not crypto" bullshit is moronic, to say the least. I feel that btc became kind of a religion, with true belivers and true grifters, like any other church. Usualy the true believers are the ones oaying for the grifters good life and maintaing them in positions of power. Case in point: microstrategy. The moment they began talking about etfs I knew it was ovet and it was time to find a good oportunity to liquidate. A shame realy, cause this was a beautiful idea, but I am out.

nicodemus 3mo ago

It doesn’t matter who owns how much. It will eventually be distributed further.

It’s simple - mistakes are going to happen. Bitcoin is incredibly easy to lose. Very very hard to gain. That’s the point!

Think of it this way:

You lose 10%. Now, to recoup, you have to gain 11%. Lose 30%, you have to gain 42%. And so on.

As it exchanges more and more hands, bits get broken off. It gets splintered.

The ultimate end for any wallet is to have handfuls of sats in it.

It keeps getting said, but people really don’t get it: we are so, so early.

I expect wrench attacks to become common. I expect nation states to seize bitcoin from anyone they can. I expect the on-ramps to bitcoin to be shut down to all but “licensed” bankers, but the off-ramps to be plentiful.

And if not? If there is no interest in bitcoin by the bankers, authorities, the infrastructure corps, et al? Then bitcoin grows ever more slowly while becoming more distributed and more decentralized. If it survives, it just gets stronger.

The only way it dies is if everyone just accepts their fate and rolls over - which history is against, on a global scale - OR something better comes along.

The history of money is clear. Strong money drives out weak money. It always has. Our little fiat experiment? A cosmic blip when compared to hard money. It’s easy to forget that. But that’s the kind of timescale we are talking about for bitcoin. History tells us that bitcoin’s “end game” is likely decades away. So, so early.

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago

I agree with everything you said and tell you that you and bitcoiners are walking into a situation where BTC will become irrelevant.

nicodemus 3mo ago

If bitcoin is still operating, it is not irrelevant. That’s how the market works.

So it either dies completely, or it will be a means of escape for those that embrace it.

And that’s always been the deal. It goes to zero or ends up eating everything.

So are you saying it’s going to die?

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago

What im saying is not hard to grasp, BTC is turning into a expensive Blackberry. Youll make money trading with someone who sees value in it at a high cost, like an ebay auction bht not as money. There is usage but its path isnt global freedom peer 2 peer money. For some thats ok, for the original vision its a horrible end to a brilliant movement addressing a real problem.

nicodemus 3mo ago

I guess I’m saying your arguments fail to make a compelling case for that. But thanks for your warning - this has always been a possibility.

Implausible Deniability 3mo ago

On another note i am warning you like a mirror reflecting something you cant see. Be careful thinking that bitcoin has to win, because you will allow the state to take everything else from you on the promise that they will use bitcoin as a way to help people, the promise youll be financially strong and that the countries economy will survive. Its the same playbook with stocks in the 70s, some people did get rich but its just delaying the optics of decline of the overall situation.

nicodemus 3mo ago

Yeah, see bitcoin winning doesn’t involve any of those things. At least to me.

Bitcoin winning means it continues to survive and hasn’t had 100% of all coins captured by the state - something that I think is impossible over any reasonable length of time.

I don’t think nation states will ever use bitcoin as their currency. Best case is that they use it as a settlement for trade with other countries (that they don’t trust).

I don’t expect countries to ever serve their people, and bitcoin certainly won’t enable that - tho it may hinder the state from harming them on some small scale.

I don’t think bitcoin will make most people rich.

I don’t think bitcoin will protect people’s money from theft any better than a bank can. UX and personal security will always fall flat.

I *expect* economies to fall over and even some nations to die (and be reborn as something else). The EU is done, as far as I’m concerned.

So perhaps your warning is to the foolish. The utopian dreamers.

Bitcoin promises the ability to always allow me to send money where I want anywhere in the world quickly, prevent theft when I take no action, and to prevent monetary inflation.

None of those promises guarantee it as a store of value - but they sure do help.

I think your concerns are largely echoing ideas and values that people have assumed and aren’t part of bitcoin’s core mechanics.

None of those mark bitcoin as a failure. It’s just hard money. So long as it survives, it will continue to be hard money. And eventually it will be used by people where the state prevents them from doing what hard money allows.

nicodemus 3mo ago

Of *course* people will accept CBDCs. This should be expected. They will not leave the incumbent until forced to.

As the old adage goes, “bitcoin will be forced upon them” due to economic reality. Either because bitcoin is so valued OR because they need the economic freedom in one way or another.

You might say, “but they control the fiat on-ramps and off-ramps”. And you’d be right. But that won’t stop its usage, because at the end of the day bitcoin is and will be used to purchased goods and services between merchant and buyer - no other intermediary needed. The level of authoritarianism endured will dictate how bespoke the goods/services are. And it will be different from nation to nation. The eta of globalization and global trust (which is needed for the kind of coordination you suggest) is *fucking over*.

Wall St’s usage of bitcoin and crypto at large is just going to be a fiat money making scheme, for the most part. It can largely be ignored unless you’re primarily interested in trading out your sats for fiat.

Infrastructure like mining and hosting is unlikely to go away due to the fiat-making schemes. Left to its own, this *could* result in regulation around who gets to mine - which is an issue. But the bitaxe projects and others have already shown that this will only lead to further decentralization as the people fabricate their own machines off of the (unprofitable) others. This plus nodes continuing to be easy to run should give anyone a great deal of confidence.

But it ain’t gonna be a fun ride. Anyone who has thought this isn’t a war and that the masses would just adopt bitcoin have been deluding themselves.

We have a long, long road ahead of us. I think maybe some people are just now waking up to this.

Deleted Account 3mo ago 💬 3

IMO these are just anticipated road blocks anyone could have thought about years ago.

BRICS even in best case hold as much physical gold as the EU for example. Would you therefore say if the EU inflates and reevaluated their gold, bitcoin would therefore become irrelevant? Quite the opposite.

Just let these numbers sink in:

—-

The overall global payments industry revenue was approximately $3.3 trillion in 2023, reflecting the scale of transaction fees, infrastructure, compliance, and processing costs combined.

Cross-border payment costs are notably high, with average fees ranging from 1% to over 5% of transaction value depending on the corridor and payment type, contributing a large share to total industry expense.

—-

Sure gold won’t lose all its value over night to btc. But the fact that especially BRICS aren’t aligned yet in a single market and currency, and have to rely on neutral gold vaults is the perfect example.

And what is it with the obsession with “you have to spend your btc and others have to accept it”?

In hyper inflation states you want to spend the inflating money as fast as possible and hold on to the appreciating one for later. Doesn’t mean you CAN’T spend it but why would you.

The invention of the internet took more than 40 years to add about 2 trillion to global GDP. That was in 2010. Today it’s about 16 trillion and still just 3.4%

Until 2010 this was basically just Emails on steroids. Look what then happened.

And when you think about a future integrated with AI gold vaults and 2% margins for payment systems won’t be profitable.

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U-P-G-R-A-Y-E-D-D 3mo ago 💬 1

Generally agree.

BTC has been usurped by the banks and quarantined as a traceable store of value. The peer to peer use case has been a failure outside of niche micro communities (so far).

The strategy was always to control and KYC the on/off ramps and they've been quite successful with this. Maxis cheered this process on as their bags appreciated.

The genius act is the successor to Kissinger's highly-successful petro dollar scheme. It will expand international demand for dollars and treasuries - both essential to keep the USD system afloat. Frankly, it's genius.

This also creates a de-facto CBDC system. All genius-compliant stablecoins (including Tether and USDC) can blacklist any wallet with a single phone call. No due process necessary. Most dont even realize this, as sanctioning wallets will continue to be extremely rare until the system has established hegemony.

As you said, there will be two competing systems - gold backed and BTC "backed." Both will be defacto CBDCs. This will trend towards a bipolar world order (vs. multipolar).

I see this as bullish for BTC price, but bearish for humanity. There's significant potential for conflict as the two systems wrestle for hegemony. This will be the Layer 0 battlefield of the 21st century.

Even more concerning is how disempowering the Stable Coin Digital Currency (SCDC) system will be for everyone but the controllers of the smart contracts' private keys and the AI chainalysis operators. Orwell's dystopia seems quaint in comparison to our current trajectory.

So what can the plebs to?

1) Don't give up cash money without a fight.

2) Buy Bitcoin AND physical gold (hedge your bets).

3) Develop parallel economies using P2P BTC

4) Develop and promote private BTC layer 2 and payment systems

5) Shift from BTC maxis to privacy maxis

6) Normalize Monero and integrate into #3

Deleted 3mo ago

The fight with Bitcoin is already lost. Monero is the way. You can't win with a transparent blockchain.

Schmidt 3mo ago

From a privacy perspective, a transparent blockchain is worse than a bank account.

ChadXMR 3mo ago

From a surveillance perspective, a transparent blockchain is an etatist's wet dream 🤔

ABH3PO 3mo ago

Yo don't expose your xpubs, I'm nost saying it's not bad, but it's not as bad as your bank account pe transparent to the public, which is FUD.