This is just an expected drawdown related to global M2 declining from late September 2024 through mid-January 2025. M2 has since been moving higher (primarily because of a weakening US dollar).
With an expected 8-12 week delay, I expect bitcoin to start rising again in earnest in the coming 1-5 weeks. Hopefully new ATHs by the end of May 2025.
Plenty of time to refi your house and tap equity.
Fingers crossed!
The frontrun begins
M2 really has that much of a delay ? Never knew
I never thought (or knew) much about these things in the past, but if you think about it, it makes sense as it takes time for changes at the top to filter down since the economy is such a massively large animal
According to DR. Ross #bitcoim is acting rationally do to 🤡🌍🌎🌏 fiat liquidity debt cycles
колличество монет, и колличество денег разное в 2025.. так что думаю цена уже не будет иметь смысла.!
Dr Jeff
Are you full bull again so soon after the Joe C interview?
I’m used to steady consistency from you - could you kindly explain the super quick flip and flip back this time?
Would be good to have Jeff Walton on to discuss $MSTR S&P inclusion, etc. I believe Joe equivocated regarding what will happen if ₿ not > $96k w new FASB rules. “PunterJeff” on X.
alright, i'm gonna unplug for 5 weeks and come back and we better be over 100k Dr Jeff. gracias!
So that's why you said mid March? You think that's when the M2 lag in the rope disappears?
Yes.
If the 8-12 week historical lag holds true, then we should see a local bottom in bitcoin price sometime between mid-March and mid-April.
From there, it's upward and onward.
Good time to stack sats. Get after it!
Do you have a graph correlating M2 money supply and BTC price? That is interesting POV and your conclusion makes my uneducated brain hurt. If you don't have any reference material that is fine. But was curious how your hypothesis works if you follow it back over time.
Based on my 4 year following of bitcoin, the M2 to bitcoin price correlation is definitely the most compeling one. I'll try to find some charts and get back to you.
It seems very compelling! Going back and applying a few rules of selling or buying BTC based on percent changes in M2 the correlation held consistent for most moves. But I probably would get wrecked still. Im interested in discussing what you have decided is a good percentage change, or rate of change, or other metric of the M2 to justify that a local top or bottom is in for BTC?
After reading multiple books and watching countless hours of videos on trading, I learned that trading is hard as fuck, and I am by no means smart enough to do it, so I just dollar cost average all the time like a freaking maniac, with some dry powder on the side for market break-downs like the current one. I do, however, punt a leverage long here and there, based on technical analysis, which has been semi-successful for me so far. I do not like to sell my BTC, so I almost never do, at least not any real ammount. I might be willing to sell a small portion if the price went unsustainably parabolic in a short period of time.
This is Raoul Pal's GMI chart from some while back.
Nik Bhatia's The Bitcoin Layer chart from late 2024
Rational Root's global liquidity vs. Bitcoin
crazy!
So your telling me we have a chance???
I agree. Better get those sats now on a discount.
