The fact that bond yields are UP today is the most noteworthy thing, imo.
Discussion
Say more please!
The entire play is to bring 10 year T down to roll over some 8 trillion in short term debt
This is either blip on fake tweet this morning or the market is playing chicken to see if they can flip the policy
I'm glad my son is young and hopefully by the time he's coming of age we'll be in a more relaxed time. But maybe nothing gets easy again.
Sats are safety.
I believe this, but I also worry I believe this sometimes.
It is the best we got. I encourage you teach him all the old school boy scout skills, handyman skills, basic car mechanics, hunting, fishing and planting a garden before 15 years old. Quality time with Dad outside enforcing human fundamental survival. Even if he wants to become and it is available to be white collat Pro, he has all the qualities of a fine outdoorsman that can be forever useful.
So far, he has helpd me grow some basil and also destroy one plant. He's on his way. He is very naturally mechanically inclined though, so I'm real excited. He got a powerwheel type car for birthday and had a blast helping me build it while only nearly stabbing himself twice.
It means selling into the 10 year. Which you would think there would be buying as a move to safety. If there is selling is that people not seeing USDT as safe? Are countries that hold USDT as the reserve currency of the world pissed and they are starting to dump?
You lose USD as the reserve asset then you get high intrest rates that smoke market and could indicate that we are losing the ability to print endless money without the massive ramifications.
It is one day. Could be a blip on the radar and probably is. I see USD as the reserve asset until BTC is. Tether and stable coins have already become and will become an enormous USDT buyer to help maintain that reserve status for another 25 to 50 years. Just because people on the street know usd and want usd not rubles or other FIAT.
Eventually people will stop wanting any fiat and a constant drain on their wealth. That won't be until BTCs NGU technology is entrenched in every humans mind and the volatility drops closer and closer to USD levels.
I know advisors. This isn't panicking their clients like something like this usually does. Maybe because they realize the Fed putt will make everything OK and Covid triggering the Fed putt so recently they aren't panicking selling they are calling and saying what bonds should I sell to rotate into equities.
I think this is saying. People are just loading up. Which in my mind means people think trump will negotiate his way out of this and we will be in a better place in the next few months.
Selling bonds that didn't get crushed with the markets and loading up for the rebound. We went positive with one fake news tweet about a pause on tariffs. Imagine what happens when a handful of countries see this as an opportunity to become the US's largest trading partner and says hey tariffs us 5% we will put no tariffs on you, let's do this.
The world is a freemarket more than the stockmarket is a freemarket. Countries will come crawling in trying to ink the best deal with the US. Markets will explode and we will have brought working class jobs home and flipped the perpetual get fucked on tariffs perpetually market on its head.
Your not bullish enough. 😘
I’m a risk averse lawyer who is always looking for the worst case scenario. Winning is hard to appreciate.
Is that because bond yields going up shows that the market doesn’t view government debt as being the safest thing to buy in this environment? What is the flight to safety play right now? Is it literal cash?
No. It's either inflation expectations or selling us bonds because of currency risk.
Based on my little AI assistant:
If bond yields rise while stocks fall, it suggests:
- A potential breakdown of confidence in fiat credit systems (people fleeing both paper assets).
- A shift in perception: from monetary illusion (artificial boom) to economic reality (capital misallocation).
- Possibly a move toward higher time preferences — people want more immediacy in consumption or certainty in assets.
- The consequences of malinvestments being exposed as unsustainable once credit expansion slows or reverses.
Stocks are up or flat today.
Yields rising during a market crash is unusual. Normally, Treasuries are the safe haven. This move could mean inflation fears from tariffs, worries about rising deficits, or a broader loss of confidence in US debt. Bond market might be sounding the alarm.
Like seagulls picking over a sandwich in traffic.
It also decoupled from the stock market right when China announced retaliatory tariffs
yea, given stocks are back a bit I’d say fear is subsiding
Noted
This is why i don’t trade anymore
Noted…. I don’t get it.
It simply means money is moving from equities to bonds ..
If more money chase treasury bonds then gov can issue more bonds at lower yield ( interest rate ) ..
The whole point of this tarrif shakeout is to reduce 10 year T bills yeild ..which I. Turn pushes down mortgage rates ..
Club that with lower energy cost ( oil is failing ) .. you kick start the housing market .. the American dream
Makes sense ?
But bond yield if getting higher?
It fell sixty basis points over last week .. some profit taking going on .. small recovery this morning .. I am expecting Bessent would bring it down to 2 percent and force the hands of Powell ...to bring short term fed rates down to 3 percent ..
That is when growth stocks ( including #bitcoin ) kick back in ..
Powell is not acting right !
So more printing, brilliant.
Yes .. you can't bring manufacturing back to US if dollar gets stronger .. that is simple arithmetic given China and India are in race to devalue their currencies ..
Good for asset holders .. socialism for the poor !
So how is it looking now with the treasuries?
It is great time for treasuries .. instead of US , investors are checking out Germany.. it is a process ..
I thought your thesis was yield has to go down, when it's clearly quite the opposite
Yes .. nothing ever goes down in a line .. besides Gold is always a better hedge in turbulent times .. that's is why my portfolio is always
30 : 30 : 30 :: BTC : GLD : VTI ..
Coming from Jack Bogle class of investing , I used to be 60 : 40 .. but I gave up on bonds in favor of BTC and Gold .. cuz Gold is ultimate hedge and BTC is good Karma !
Despite my own investments ( and temporary losses ) I still like Trump Bessant stgy .. someone is atleast trying to cover main street ..
Well, your thesis might have been right but reality ended up being drastically different
Yes .. you are right .. but look at the results ..
Trump got ten percent across the board ..that are good enough to fund the tax cuts ( including those on tips and Social security) .. he claims to have seventy countries for bilateral talks .. I would give him 35 :-) .. and he has China in the corner with 125 percent .. let say effectively half cuz Apple and Tesla would obviously get a pass ..
And markets are back ..roaring
What is lost is the idea that reputation is under question ... Well , in international relations , no one gives a flip .. it is all transactional .. politics is never an assumption!
Besides ..that is exactly why it is called reverse repo .. people who were long are selling to cover their losses ... It will fall sharper tomorrow..
Check out Oil too ..
Indeed
Nobody stops this train?!?!
Good evening #nostr
I thought we're killing the stock market to bring down the yield?!?
Luke Growman has some great tweets about this recently. Including ones laced with dank memes. He started calling the flip to rising 10 year a week or so ago. You and him should just team up and be like a science fiction duo called “The Enlightenment Tribunal” those who all other federal reserve demi gods answer to at the end of time and space.
I’ve been kind of teamed up with Luke in the macro sense since like 2019.
Everyone keeps saying that's telling us something. But, I'm not smart enough to know what that is.
Meaning: Bonds are less of a hedge for Stocks?
J Pow is still the conductor on the Mortgage Rate Train?
Is the market expecting a shortage of dollars in the near term?
All assets (equities, bonds, bitcoin, even gold) are selling off now so there’s a flight to cash.
What breaks next?
Very unexpected.
What do you suspect is happening oh wise one?
Inflation was priced much lower than expected, interest rate should have started at 5-6%, the plan aims to devalue the dollar by up to -20% over the years. Soft increase I guess.
You mean because not considered a safe haven?
Where is all the cash going?
Stocks down
Bonds down
Gold down
Bitcoin flat
People just selling into cash and holding it??
Many people ask why.
The short answer is because nothing stops this train.
The longer answer is that 1) the rest of the world isn’t buying as many Treasuries anymore, 2) investors prefer cash to Treasuries, and 3) there are now balance of payments issues and so the United Stated has EM-like characteristics where stocks and bonds can struggle together due to capital outflows.
nostr:nevent1qqsyalrlpf2zggf7dqm3x42w9zw7u5nhv6jgxfyuclcr4mt3en0275qurnxr0
China dumping treasuries?
Post nudes
Curious if you have theories as to who is selling. Tom Luongo suspects the UK, which tracks with their response that caused the panic of 1837.