Because it's fun to speculate, here is my base case Bitcoin fiat price prediction around Bitcoin Core's v30 update:

1) Phase 1 - illegal content shock: headline embeds -> "nodes = content hosts?" -> cloud/AUP (Acceptable use Policy) scares -> compliance FUD -> Bitcoin Price drops significantly (e.g. 15-35% from pre-headline level in days-weeks).

2) Phase 2 - Relief / "Clarity" pump: Bills/agency guidance sketch a registered/filtered-node path; ETFs = "safe exposure".

Governments start to introduce more rules/regulations, the Bitcoin price recovers and significantly increases because of 'regulatory clarity'.

The Bitcoin price pumps into new all time highs, e.g. 30-80% off the local low over weeks-months as ETFs absorb flows and "policy certainty" narratives hit TV.

This price increase makes Bitcoiners not want to fight the regulation.

3) Phase 3 - Managed plateau: derivatives + ETF plumbing keep upside orderly; self-custody payments stagnate.

The containment phase: range-bound, capped rallies into options walls; cycles continue but blow-offs fade faster.

This scenario fits state incentives (domesticate, don't destroy), matches market-structure (CME/ETF dominance), and leverages the scandal to cement licensed infrastructure without overt bans.

It's the elegant path: use scandal to legitimize licensed infrastructure, then market-structure (ETFs, options gamma, weekend liquidations) keeps price in a pen. Holders feel wealthier and resistance evaporates.

This pattern is often used by governments and large corporations: seduce -> habituate -> enshittify.

Enshittification (platform capture) is the process of platforms/governments degrading UX to extract value as they mature and entrench.

The system buys consent with upfront benefits, trains behavior while hiding true costs, then flips the switches (fees, filters, frictions) once lock-in and network effects make exit expensive.