𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗢𝗻-𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝘁 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸: "𝗧𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲? 𝗬𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝘁 𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴!"

nostr:npub1qh5sal68c8swet6ut0w5evjmj6vnw29x3k967h7atn45unzjyeyq6ceh9r & nostr:npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8 dive into why understanding whether you're a trader, investor, or saver is crucial—and how knowing which "bucket" you fall into can shape your investment strategy.

We also break down the power of enhanced DCA and explain why following the "Sell and buy back later" crowd is a fool's errand. Plus, we discuss how Bitcoin investors can identify absolute bear market bottoms and local tops during bull runs using on-chain metrics!

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:58 Understanding Market Signals and Human Behavior

05:48 The Investor vs. Trader Mindset

09:01 Bitcoin as the World's Best Long-Term Conviction Asset

12:13 On-Chain Analysis: A New Perspective

15:00 Investing Frameworks for Bitcoin

17:53 The Power of Enhanced DCA

21:13 Market Cycles: Predicting Tops and Bottoms

24:00 The Future of Bitcoin Market Dynamics

Enjoy🤜🤟

https://youtu.be/p2GtbX6RXrU?si=oaj1zqpdvdR9HTXq

#Bitcoin #Investing #marketanalysis #onchain #trading #psychology #marketcycles, #dca #crypto #signalovernoise

Who here agrees?

Found at Token2049

Nice. Just met nostr:npub1spdnfacgsd7lk0nlqkq443tkq4jx9z6c6ksvaquuewmw7d3qltpslcq6j7 in Singapore and he helped me onboard my wife and her company‘s boss to #nostr 🔥🔥

Thanks sir, much appreciated🙏

The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“

nostr:npub1sn0wdenkukak0d9dfczzeacvhkrgz92ak56egt7vdgzn8pv2wfqqhrjdv9 just quoted nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a in his amazing speech at Token 2049

Lets gooo. We are winning!

„The dollar is done. There is nothing stopping this train.“

nostr:npub1sn0wdenkukak0d9dfczzeacvhkrgz92ak56egt7vdgzn8pv2wfqqhrjdv9 just quoted nostr:npub19taxhhc7a7xs60ct6gh26sdhnaqcdq84zzcmaduqvzgqrjqct4dsat7eyn in his amazing speech at Token 2049

Lets gooo. We are winning!

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗶𝘁𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿: "𝗜 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝗨𝗽𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻"

nostr:npub104xlufdz2twl7p35jqz2vmf4qstxrsmxnexszw7kcqlhqwj8s62srjpyta and nostr:npub1qhx7lnggpv64f0wt5xyjj7h90qh5ewu35pspr66sj8alc4gvcfjqqn04l8 talk about all things recession. Is a recession on the horizon? If so, what key indicators are flashing warning signs? Is the U.S. government, with its war-time deficit spending, distorting economic indicators? And most importantly—why stay bullish on Bitcoin in face of a recession?

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:11 André's Early Days in Bitcoin

14:45 Understanding the Current Economic Landscape

29:51 Recession Indicators and Their Implications

45:00 Bitcoin's Future: Catalysts and Predictions

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhD_CkRjsqg

Enjoy🤜🤟

#Bitcoin #recession #economicindicators #cryptocurrency #investment, #macro #cryptomarket #monetarypolicy #lessnoisemoresignal #signalovernoise

A recently had a post on how the US Treasury is influencing the longer-dated bond curve:

https://primal.net/e/note1sfptwc5qzah4tn5atrpqkht8466596hlv2allcf5zeak49gnt29q34qk6z

Here‘s some more insight on this topic:

Stephen Miran et al. call it: "Activist Treasury Issuance"

This podcast should be worth your time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-HembzMIvA

Who here on #nostr has taken the orange pill and has found a new type of existentialism?

feat. Orangecrypto

#Bitcoin

𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐠𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧

I just finished reading Matthew Pines‘ brilliant paper, “𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑁𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑘 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 & 𝐵𝑖𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑖𝑛,” from the Bitcoin Policy Institute, and oooh boy, it’s amazing.

A few key points really clicked for me; I increasingly believe that the future macro-order will look as follows:

𝐎𝐧 𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞, 𝐰𝐞 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭 (𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚/𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚) 𝐝𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝, 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐂𝐁𝐃𝐂 𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐬. 𝐎𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭 (𝐔𝐒 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐬) 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐁𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐬.

At the start of this geopolitical contest, the U.S. was the undisputed winner. Thanks to having the global reserve currency (USD) and the world’s safest reserve asset (U.S. Treasuries), capital flowed into US markets, forcing countries like China to rely on the dollar for trade while financing America’s debt, benefiting their geopolitical opponent even more.

However, China has found a way out. Instead of recycling dollar reserves into treasuries, they’ve been buying hard assets, real estate and Western equities. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China is also lending dollars to emerging markets in exchange for collateral like infrastructure (ports, land, dams).

But China is going further. By building a cross-bridge CBDC network with its partners, China can deepen financial ties and bypass the U.S. dollar system ever more.

All of this increasingly looks like a “heads China wins, tails US loses” situation.

So, how can the US and its allies counteract this?

Judging by what’s happening on Wall Street and the conversations happening in Washington DC, the US is discovering the power of Bitcoin and dollar-based stablecoins as a tool to counter these adversary efforts to challenge US geoeconomic power while reinforcing liberal value systems around the world.

For one, it can be argued that soon-to-be regulated private stablecoins are winning the fight against China’s Belt and Road initiative and cross-bridged CBDC arrangements on the US’s behalf. After all, market-driven transaction volume in the biggest US dollar denominated stablecoins vastly outpacing the CBDC efforts of the People’s Bank of China to-date.

Global demand for stablecoins, which are backed by US bonds, could become a crucial tool for U.S. debt financing. In a way, US denominated stablecoins act as indirect tax levied on dollar bitcoin flows. How so?

They can be viewed as a tax because foreign users indirectly "pay" by contributing to the demand for US assets, which allows the U.S. to finance its government debt more easily and cheaply. Essentially, international users of stablecoins are helping fund the U.S. government, much like how a tax supports government revenue.

It’s quite ironic when you think about it: the rise of Bitcoin, alongside today’s decentralized global altcoin casino, has unintentionally gifted the U.S. government a new strategic macro buyer for its debt—one poised to become even more influential in the near future. Put simply: if it weren’t for global shitcoin trading, stablecoins wouldn’t have grown as rapidly as they have.

In short, Bitcoin and stablecoins are emerging as some of the most potent geopolitical tools the US and its allies have against Eastern powers. It’s high time key decision-makers recognize that allowing Bitcoin to flourish—potentially even surpassing gold in monetary significance—would disproportionately benefit the US. After all, American citizens and companies hold a substantial portion of the global Bitcoin supply, and its adoption would fuel growth in US capital markets.

Bitcoin and the US dollar naturally complement each other, with US. dollar stablecoins serving as the crucial link between them! Stablecoin issuance will by driven by demand for Bitcoin and its rising dollar price.

nostr:npub1tccnjexzau3x5ea8c69v047nqfy3xm4w4yl9j788sts0usl87nhsvce6fh put it well, when it wrote: “As the US finances more deficits w/ T-Bills, inflation rises secularly = BTC up = more stablecoins = more T-Bills = inflation up more = BTC up = more stablecoins = more T-Bills... wash, rinse, repeat.

This should also prompt the US to adopt a light tax policy on Bitcoin, recognizing that Bitcoin demand fuels stablecoin growth—and these stablecoins already act like an international "tax" on a growing global base of users that support US government debt.

#Bitcoin #Stablecoins #Geopolitics #USDollar #CBDC #Macroeconomics

Being a critic of anything is important. However, here are three things I found to be just wrong criticism:

„Who will build the roads?“

-> Statists falsely assume no one would build the roads

„Who will run the relays?“

-> No-coiners falsely believe that #nostr is not gonna work

„Who will buy the bonds?“

-> Fiat haters falsely think, the government bond market of Western sovereigns like the United Stated is about to collapse

Have you heard about Travis Kling‘s theory „A Lack of Pretense That Any of This Shit Does Anything or Will Ever Do Anything" and „Financial Nihilism: The Zeitgeist of Young America".

In it he raises some great points about how monetary relativism caused by global central banks has been driving people to speculate on shitcoins!

I have been in "crypto" for the past 8 years as well. For me personally though, I don't feel like being pulled into the pervasive quiet quitting mentality he describes.

As a matter of fact, I never felt more excited about this space. However, this is mainly because of #Bitcoin! Being an open-minded person, trained as a financial journalist, I always had the ambition to study and understand the entire space.

This has always helped me not drift into the Bitcoin Maxi camp, for better I would argue. Nonetheless, I have always been a Bitcoin realist.

Today, my excitment is growing because Bitcoin is showing real world adoption. The Bitcoin ETFs have only been the start. The big US banks are coming, it's not if but when as Howard Lutnick has been pointing out in one of his latest X posts: https://x.com/howardlutnick/status/1831080474124681316?s=46&t=dsOG2YNLvX4R1JCEEpiQ2w

Also, there is a lot of interesting stuff happening around scaling Bitcoin with REAL layer-2 technologies. There is decentralized social media taking off in the form of #Nostr.

The financialization of Bitcoin is happening as we speak. I can see it at the very bank I am working for. However, this inevitable financialization mustn't be bad.

In fact, there are technology providers out there like nostr:npub19yfzme2usrukjgwxs3eekfnj5xhnarygpqjr2m48agsvvgz32ggqhymc68 that will make sure the financing of Bitcoin will happen in a peer-to-peer, non-custodial, open, transparent way thanks to multi-signature and collaborative custody - an upgrade to the system.

I recently got to talk about these topics with nostr:npub1797h37mc98f6363m5nysxd0t2swuz7nxq4z83saw77em3czld6xqvuar68 and nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z on a recent podcast. You can check the episode here: https://youtu.be/9LQ4AElWDMc?si=YNklO3uKLnCE4fcv

So, why am I telling you all this? I want to prove a point that „crypto“ can still be interesting, if you shift your focus and attention to Bitcoin!

Also, I feel like I have the responsibility to convey this message to all the laggards (boomers, etc.) that are now looking at crypto and want to invest in all sorts of projects. At the bank, I talk to a lot of them, on a regulary basis. Well, they are behind the curve and don't know yet that a lot of crypto enthusiasts have quietly given up on crypto...

As such, I feel like this message is very important and needs to be presented to older folks so they can be warned and their invested wealth potentially be protected!

So, to sum things up: I will keep on pushing. Also, I will be starting my own podcast very soon and I hope to provide content that is signal over noise.

#lessnoisemoresignal

Well, multisig cold storage custody is coming.

Generating a yield is coming with risk, you might not want this! Possibly better: conservatively borrow against your BTC stack and let BTC do the magic over a long time period.

„Crypto“ is among the top 10 least attractive hobbies men can have according to women.

Ergo, crypto wealth might not help you to get girls after all.

Interestingly, reading is considered the most attractive trait men can have. True Bitcoiners , who have done their research have done a lot reading, or else they woule not be Bitcoiners.

Ergo, Bitcoin knowledge is attractive in the eyes of girls 👀?

Related: Even nostr:npub15dqlghlewk84wz3pkqqvzl2w2w36f97g89ljds8x6c094nlu02vqjllm5m says that he has never met a Bitcoin critic who had spent even 100 hours of studying #Bitcoin

Most importantly: Crypto is NOT Bitcoin

The same for me!

For our upcoming book, we’ve been exploring the history surrounding the founding of the Bank of England, often referred to as a "revolution bank" by contemporary commentators.

What stands out to me are the striking parallels between this monumental project and the development of Ethereum. Both embody a blend of meticulous planning and inherent hubris. Despite the founders' well-meaning intentions, the reality often strays far from their original vision—true for both the BoE and Ethereum.

Just as the BoE became the blueprint for central banks across the globe, Ethereum has inspired a vast ecosystem of crypto networks.

One might argue that Ethereum is the modern-day equivalent of the BoE—a project aimed at creating and steering “optimal” monetary systems, yet accompanied by unintended consequences and interventions.

From a high-level perspective, I would categorize the systems as follows:

Central banking, as seen with institutions like the BoE, revolves around creating money, controlled by a select few—the "high priests" of fiat currency.

Platforms like Ethereum democratize money creation, making it accessible to a wider group (though it still concentrates power in certain hands, it’s arguably more open than the traditional central bank model).

Bitcoin represents the attempt to remove human control over money altogether—designed to prevent anyone from arbitrarily creating currency.

There will be a more detailed post on how Ethereum resembles the BoE.

Also, thanks to nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z for agreeing to take a look at our book and support us with his knowledge on the various Bitcoin topics🙏

Thanks sir!

It gives me great joy that I was recently invited by nostr:npub1s5yq6wadwrxde4lhfs56gn64hwzuhnfa6r9mj476r5s4hkunzgzqrs6q7z to his podcast.

Together with nostr:npub1797h37mc98f6363m5nysxd0t2swuz7nxq4z83saw77em3czld6xqvuar68, we talked about:

-Why peer-to-peer lending is so important in the Bitcoin context

-How Swiss banks like are so advanced when it comes to Bitcoin

-Why, stablecoins will most definitely be adopted by traditional banks

- And how banks should be thinking about tokenizing all sorts of assets.

As someone who has been in the Bitcoin space for about 8 years 🕰️ and knows how real Bitcoiners truly think, I want to take this knowledge and contribute to the bank’s understanding of Bitcoin and Bitcoiners! 💡🏦

Here's our talk: https://youtu.be/9LQ4AElWDMc?si=cAjJ2A6ydE2BUEYG

#Bitcoin #tokenization #digitalassets #peertopeer #lending #bitcoinbanks

This is the same for all banks. Obviously technical setup etc. differs depending on how the bank is doing it (build your own custody solution or do sub-custody with third party sub-custodian).

Generally though, in Switzerland, thanks to changes in Swiss law and banking regulations, banks can separate digital assets from their balance sheets. This allows them to offer true custody accounts, ensuring that assets belong to the client. By law, these assets are fully segregated from the bank's estate during bankruptcy and are returned to the client.

Hello world! 🌍

The Cantonal Bank of Zurich is now offering its clients the option to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum. 🚀 This marks yet another major step forward for the Swiss banking industry. Earlier this year, the third-largest bank, Post Finance, also introduced its own crypto offering.

It seems like only a matter of time before the two largest banks (looking at you, UBS 👀) will need to follow suit!

When it comes to Bitcoin and digital assets, Swiss banks are far ahead of their US counterparts. 🇨🇭 In the US, regulatory hurdles still prevent banks from fully engaging with Bitcoin.

Offering custody for digital assets like Bitcoin involves significant costs due to the capital backing required (thanks to Basel III regulations 💰).

However, in Switzerland, thanks to changes in Swiss law and banking regulations, banks can separate digital assets from their balance sheets. This allows them to offer true custody accounts, ensuring that assets belong to the client. By law, these assets are fully segregated from the bank's estate during bankruptcy and are returned to the client. 🔐✅

At Archip Maerki Baumann, this is why we're able to offer a segregated wallet for each of our clients holding Bitcoin with us.

As I understand it, something similar is possible in Wyoming 🇺🇸, thanks to the efforts of nostr:npub1uyz4w2w4rcphk0q5arzkutrecgscxwzajj4dkvh9mjyqjtxslm6qea8632 and others, but it's still rare in most of the United States.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #DigitalAssets #SwissBanking #FinancialInnovation

Good observation. I‘d assume that demand is not strong enough, which is why issuance has to be suppressed by scaling down long-dated issuance.