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Dug
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Being the man my dog thought I was (also GFY) he liked knots

love going out for a spin on my e-bike, I bought it in 2020, 4 months into my #bitcoin  journey, due to my “on paper” profits covering the expense. Fortunately I did not realise profits to pay for it. If I had, by the time the bike actually arrives 6 months later the #bitcoin  I would have sold would have been worth around 4x what the bike was worth. I would also have had to pay capital gains on what I had sold, pushing the effective price of the bike up between 20-40%. 😭

Don’t get too far over ur skis, don’t think you’re a genius when you’ve made a little money this bullrun. Stay humble,don’t sell your #Bitcoin  & if you think that item you can now justify/afford will add value to your life,maybe borrow some money (cheaply, cycle to work scheme in the uk?!?) or save a little fiat. Also, don’t get distracted by what you could buy, enjoy the beauty in the world. 😘

Since US law enforcement agencies have been able to identify a money laundering offence involving this particular wallet, then they are well equipped to detect such crimes, and there is no need to criminalise mixers or #bitcoin wallets as a technology and its developers in general.

This is exactly what we talk about in our meetings with regulators: we understand that US law enforcement has all the tools to track #Bitcoin  transactions on the blockchain. That is why real criminals, and even more so oligarchs, use completely different schemes to launder dirty money.

Besides, Western intelligence services are diligently training dictatorial regimes how to recognise both traditional banking and crypto-assets transactions, so the oligarchs have this knowledge from the intelligence services under their control in non-democratic countries. They don't want and don’t need to use such tools.

And to be precise, I definitely think it's very harmful to promote or ask oligarchs, criminals to use your privacy payment tools. It gives more opportunities to weaponise this kind of rhetoric by any kind of government.

Our 15 years of human rights practice shows that real oligarchs prefer other tools for laundering dirty money. For example, the daughter of dictator Nursultan #Nazarbayev, Dariga #Nazarbayeva - #UK law enforcement authorities failed in their attempts to hold her accountable for money laundering. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/08/uk-agency-loses-case-against-ex-kazakh-president-family-aliyev-nazarbayev

Kazakhstani regime used political lobbyists, expensive Western law firms, and the Kazakhstani state apparatus to succeed in laundering her dirty money.

This scheme works for the oligarchs, people who have stolen billions from the budget of a country where their family members have been in power for decades, politically persecuting any dissent, torturing and killing.

They do not need mixers, they have perfectly mastered money laundering schemes through investments in expensive real estate and consultations with former higher officials, top Western law firms.

Mixers and self-hosted wallets, on the other hand, are used by activists who are financially excluded by authoritarian regimes and do not have the privilege to use banking services in general due to political repression.

Moreover, the knowledge of US intelligence agencies is used to financially exclude regime critics and their family members both domestically and transnationally. This is exactly what #Turkey, #Kazakhstan and other regimes do all the time, sharing knowledge gained from Western partners with #Russia, #Iran, #China to repress dissenters abroad.

In less than 5 minutes Kazakhstan blocks fundraising via bank account or @stripe for families of political prisoners, so bitcoin p2p transactions and mixers are currently the only instrument to protect human rights in such authoritarian countries. Regimes can trace such transactions, but they can't stop them and so far it has helped save lives.

Therefore, an effective fight against money laundering would begin not with the criminalisation of privacy payment tools and their developers, but with ending the impunity of authoritarian regimes and their oligarchs in using legal schemes to circumvent sanctions through the banking systems of third countries.

đŸ«Ą

Replying to Avatar Dan

GM!

Yes it is. đŸ«Ą

Gm nostriches, sun is streaming through the window, #coffeechain was oh so creamy, fiat currencies are coughing up blood and independent, censorship resistance, non inflationary, energy secured money is a thing. What a time to be alive. Share the good word of Satoshi, stay humble, stack sats, be happy. #bitcoin #grownostr

Stay vigilant out there, fight for your freedom to transaction and the right “to selectively reveal oneself to the world” (thank you Eric). The European Union appears to be working to actively remove these rights. Combined with their new rules of cash transactions, I am honestly concerned. nostr:note1et58xmrmh2ag8xmjc7r98crzn8fq0f97ngda90vq6d6hatfdsm3q7ew4yd

Great RHR last week, been waiting to post this pic for a while and this clip was just what I was waiting for. Economies and just like ice skating. Stay humble. https://fountain.fm/clip/Jxc75ECDyk14gOprdvy9

GM freaks, Maximum pumpiness on a Tuesday morning with the legendary Tyler S. TA is basically horoscopes for nerds, no offence, but loving the notion that #bitcoin hasn’t been able to “flip bullish on the RSI” since March

.. whatever that might actually mean. Onwards and upwards nostriches.

Gm nostriches. For all those Unit of Account maxis out there, looking back on this time last year, I have more #bitcoin now than I did back then. Things are moving in the right direction. All other metrics are just noise. Stay humble, stack sats, spend to support the ecosystem, increase your stack. #grownostr

Wife: what you working on, is it due for tomorrow or something? You’re very busy.

Me: errrr, I’m just writing something to send to someone with a profile picture where he is made up of sandwiches and goes by the name of shinobi about ossification.

Wife: sorry I asked.

Replying to Avatar Dug

GM nostriches, keep it classy, get some sunshine, and here is a little note on where we are in mining and the halving. I’m just an average guy, but have explored mining a little, also, if you get to the end, I have had some research training along the way, so fingers cross, you don’t think what I’ve written is complete BS.

How’s about an update on how things are looking for the average #bitcoin  miner going into the #halving, who knows how long it will take to return to pre halving $usd value for the subsidy. But what about a new graph with some new insight?

Looking at the first graph, after the halving it took up to 175 for revenues to reach pre halving overs, which is at times called the miners “valley of death” (I think or I just made that up). Also worth noting is that when prices returned to those levels, in both 2016 and 2020 there was quite a bit of resistance making it back over that level (something worth remembering in the coming months), but this is oh so short term.

Current mining rewards mean nothing, if you got into mining closer to all highs, it is likely that you would only be comfortable once post halving rewards exceeded pre halving all time high block rewards. (Current block rewards)/(all time high block rewards). Remember $corz?!?!? They aped in with leverage and loans and once price started to turn, 💀. If you get into mining at ATHs, you’re going to have been under water for a while.

But look at the yellow dots (graph 2), we are already at all time highs, this time is different by quite a way. If prices were where they were 4 years ago, there would likely be much less interest in #bitcoin  mining and many more miners struggling. Miner rewards in previous cycles post halving went down to under 20% of their all time rewards, this cycle they are unlikely to dip much below 40%, so miner profitability is likely under much less pressure this time around. Having said that, a 50% cut in revenue (not profit) will likely affect all miners, with only the best financed, best managed with cheapest power are likely to survive/flourish, I’m looking at you $clsk and barefoot!!!!! In epoch 2, it took over 300 days to get back to miner profits being what they were at the previous ATH!!!!

But, but, but my friend, this is only part of the complex system that is mining, rewards are distributed across the entire network and that has been growing for 4 years. Given hashrate (or your miners’ share of the network) has increased quite dramatically/exponentially since 2012:

hashrate increased from 0.78 exahash in 2016 to 97 exahash in 2020 (blockchain.com), what miners earn has also reduced significantly.

As a result, rather than block rewards, fees or fiat price per coin, miners tend to give more attention to hashprice, or basically what they can expect to earn for each tera or peta hash provided to the network per day. Hash price peaked in late 2017 at nearly$3500 per day/peta hash but by Jan 2020 was around $150 per day/petahash $0.15 per th, but again, this is not the full story, how much did it cost a miner to provide that hash rate to the network,how many dollars are they making per machine? This is fag packet maths, but if you happened to have an S9 at the peak, it was still profitable mining with energy costing you over $1 per KWh!!!!! That point in history when you could actual plug a miner into a wall socket and print money!!!!

So, let’s put a little practice and numbers into this theory, going into the 2020 #halving a miner could make $0.1272 per day/tera hash. After the halving that was 0.07636. This means that your average S19 with 95T and 34j/Th (thanks BLOCKWARE solutions for an insightful case study) would be making (after 8c/kWh power) $1.325 worth of bitcoin per day. During this period it took Hash price 175 days (nearly 6 months) after the 2020 halving to get back to the level it was pre halving, that is a long time for a miner to be operating with a reduced revenue. Good job this theoretical person bought the newest generation miner!

Today, a lovely new S21, 195T, with an efficiency of 17.5 watts/terahash (thanks bitmain.com), with hash price at a very respectacle $0.108 per day/terahash and again 8c per kWh, this can earn you $14.42 per day 🙌, today. However, come Saturday (đŸ€ž), rewards halve, but power costs stay the same, meaning profit will drop to $3.85 per day, even for the best miner on the market (at the moment). FYI, if price at the halving was around $32k, even an s21 would only just breakeven.

If miners don’t have the latest generation miners, they will have difficulty staying profitable (makes sense). Our friendly s19 from earlier makes $4.37/day today, but after Saturday (đŸ€ž) it would effectively cost you $71.7k to mine a #bitcoin. While miners are likely tied into fixed price power contracts, if they haven’t got strong cash positions, it is only a matter of time before this starts causing problems, unless price starts to rip!

Look back on those yellow dots from earlier, we hate saying it and cringe whenever we hear it, but even if the institutions and etf’s have affected things, this time appears to be quite different!

Good work in making it is far, I think the numbers get pretty close and would have ideally had data for graphs through to the end, but wasn’t able to get hold of it, please be kind, I’m trained in qualitative research not quants, I tried my best!!!! Peace. âœŒđŸ»#grownostr #minebitcoin #halfining. Now time to wake up the fam and turn on the #coffeechain. Pura Vida.

I love that I do some nice analysis and bitcoin properly takes me to school with initial block rewards for the new epoch!!!