Why Bombing Iran Won’t Work

The United States is debating whether to bomb Iran.

However, history provides a clear answer: bombing campaigns, not supported by a ground war, never lead to victory. If anything, they make the opponent more determined.

8 times before a great power tried to achieve its goals by bombing a minor power:

1. Italy vs. Ethiopia in 1936

Italy bombed Ethiopian towns and villages, even using poison gas, in an attempt to force Ethiopia to surrender.

This strategy failed and it took an Italian ground invasion of Ethiopia and the subsequent conquering of the country to get Ethiopia to surrender.

2. Japan's Bombing of China (1937-1945)

Between 1937 and 1945, Japan relentlessly bombed Chinese cities causing great numbers of civilian casualties.

This did not break the will of the Chinese people, and the conflict ended in a Japanese defeat by the United States.

3. The Soviet Attack on Finland in World War II

During World War II, the Soviet Union conducted a (relatively small) bombing campaign against Finnish cities. This did not lead to Finland's capitulation.

In the end it was Finland's recognition that its military was heavily outnumbered and didn’t stand a chance against the Red Army that made it quit fighting.

4. The Korean War

To force North Korea to stop fighting the US attacked food and industrial centres. What led to the end of the war though were US nuclear threats and the realisation that neither side had the capacity to break the stalemate.

5. The Vietnam War

The “Rolling Thunder” bombing campaign by the US had as goal to force North Vietnam to stop fueling the war in the south and accept an independent South Vietnam.

The bombing campaign failed and North Vietnam eventually won the war.

6. The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

The 1980s Soviet bombing campaign in Afghanistan intended to crush rebel forces by attacking population centres. This did not have the intended effect and the war ended with the Soviets withdrawing, not the insurgents.

7. The First Gulf War in 1991

Before invading, the US first tried to force Saddam Hussein to abandon Kuwait via an extensive bombing campaign.

This campaign failed to achieve its objective and a ground invasion was needed to accomplish the task.

8. The Bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999

The only campaign that appears successful, at first glance, was the bombing campaign that coerced Yugoslavia into submission in 1999. And the bombing campaign definitely played a role…

But closer examination reveals that NATO's threat of a ground invasion and Russia's diplomatic pressures were the decisive factors that made Yugoslavia capitulate.

Conclusion

The historical record is clear: bombing campaigns without the credible threat or actual use of ground forces are unlikely to achieve strategic objectives.

This holds especially true for Iran, where the complexities of regional dynamics and the potential for proxy engagements make a purely aerial strategy not only ineffective but likely counterproductive.

And since a ground invasion of Iran is not a viable threat, the only real option to end tensions in the Middle East is via diplomatic means.

Why Bombing Iran Won’t Work

The United States is debating whether to bomb Iran.

However, history provides a clear answer: bombing campaigns, not supported by a ground war, never lead to victory. If anything, they make the opponent more determined.

8 times before a great power tried to achieve its goals by bombing a minor power:

1. Italy vs. Ethiopia in 1936

Italy bombed Ethiopian towns and villages, even using poison gas, in an attempt to force Ethiopia to surrender.

This strategy failed and it took an Italian ground invasion of Ethiopia and the subsequent conquering of the country to get Ethiopia to surrender.

2. Japan's Bombing of China (1937-1945)

Between 1937 and 1945, Japan relentlessly bombed Chinese cities causing great numbers of civilian casualties.

This did not break the will of the Chinese people, and the conflict ended in a Japanese defeat by the United States.

3. The Soviet Attack on Finland in World War II

During World War II, the Soviet Union conducted a (relatively small) bombing campaign against Finnish cities. This did not lead to Finland's capitulation.

In the end it was Finland's recognition that its military was heavily outnumbered and didn’t stand a chance against the Red Army that made it quit fighting.

4. The Korean War

To force North Korea to stop fighting the US attacked food and industrial centres. What led to the end of the war though were US nuclear threats and the realisation that neither side had the capacity to break the stalemate.

5. The Vietnam War

The “Rolling Thunder” bombing campaign by the US had as goal to force North Vietnam to stop fueling the war in the south and accept an independent South Vietnam.

The bombing campaign failed and North Vietnam eventually won the war.

6. The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan

The 1980s Soviet bombing campaign in Afghanistan intended to crush rebel forces by attacking population centres. This did not have the intended effect and the war ended with the Soviets withdrawing, not the insurgents.

7. The First Gulf War in 1991

Before invading, the US first tried to force Saddam Hussein to abandon Kuwait via an extensive bombing campaign.

This campaign failed to achieve its objective and a ground invasion was needed to accomplish the task.

8. The Bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999

The only campaign that appears successful, at first glance, was the bombing campaign that coerced Yugoslavia into submission in 1999. And the bombing campaign definitely played a role…

But closer examination reveals that NATO's threat of a ground invasion and Russia's diplomatic pressures were the decisive factors that made Yugoslavia capitulate.

Conclusion

The historical record is clear: bombing campaigns without the credible threat or actual use of ground forces are unlikely to achieve strategic objectives.

This holds especially true for Iran, where the complexities of regional dynamics and the potential for proxy engagements make a purely aerial strategy not only ineffective but likely counterproductive.

And since a ground invasion of Iran is not a viable threat, the only real option to end tensions in the Middle East is via diplomatic means.