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PeakyBTC
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Bitcoin. MMA. Laughs

I paid $9,000 for a home water filter that filters all the water in the house. It includes a reverse osmosis filter at my sink that provides pure H20 for all our drinking water.

Lifetime guarantee. Company will transport the new filter to the new house when we move

Good investment or bad investment?

If your job forced you to wear a mask again, would you quit?

My job is to valuable to me to quit.

When all the miners in the world are competing for 1 Satoshi, that’s actually gonna be hilarious.

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

“We should change Bitcoin now in a contentious way to fix the security budget” is basically the same tinkering mentality that central bankers have.

It begins with an overconfident assumption that they know fees won’t be sufficient in the future and that a certain “fix” is going to generate more fees. But some “fixes” could even backfire and create less fees, or introduce bugs, or damage the incentive structure.

The Bitcoin fee market a couple decades out will primarily be a function of adoption or lack thereof. In a world of eight billion people, only a couple hundred million can do an on chain transaction per year, or a bit more with maximal batching. The number of people who could do a monthly transaction is 1/12th of that number. In order to be concerned that bitcoin fees will be too low to prevent censorship in the future, we have to start with the assumption that not many people use bitcoin decades out.

Fedwire has about 100x the gross volume that Bitcoin currently does, with a similar number of transactions. What will Bitcoin’s fee market be if volumes go up 5x or 10x, let alone 50x or 100x? Who wants to raise their hand with a confident model of what bitcoin volumes will be in 2040?

What will someone pay to send a ten million dollar equivalent on chain settlement internationally? $100 in fees per million dollar settlement transaction would be .01%. $300 to get it in a quicker block would be 0.03%. That type of environment can generate tens of billions of dollars of fees annually. The fees that people pay to ship millions of dollars of gold long distances, or to perform a real estate transaction worth millions of dollars, are extremely high. Even if bitcoin is a fraction of that, it would be high by today’s standards. And in a world of billions of people, if nobody wants to pay $100 to send a million dollar settlement bearer asset transaction, then that’s a world where not many people use bitcoin period.

In some months the “security budget” concern trends. In other months, the “fees will be so high that only rich people can transact on chain” concern trends. These are so wildly contradictory and the fact that both are common concerns shows how little we know about the long term future.

I don’t think the fee market can be fixed by gimmicks. Either the network is desirable to use in a couple decades or it’s not. If 3 or 4 decades into bitcoin’s life it can’t generate significant settlement volumes, and gets easily censored due to low fees, then it’s just not a very desirable network at that point for one reason or another.

Some soft forks like covenants can be thoughtfully considered for scaling and fee density, and it’s good for smart developers to always be thinking about low risk improvements to the network that the node network and miners might have a high consensus positive view toward over time. But trying to rush VC-backed softforks, and using security budget FUD to push them, is pretty disingenuous imo.

Anyway, good morning.

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

If I’m creating three new multisig wallets, should I go with 12 or 24 words?

Damn I wanna play Starfield but only have a PS5

Has anyone ever changed careers with two young kids? How did you manage the risk?

My prediction: bitcoin stays below 40k til June of next year.

Too many negative macroforces

5 years from now, will there be more users on Threads or Nostr?

Favorite Nostr client?

I use Damus on iPhone. But will switch if I can find a zappable client with iPhone.

I have 2 under 2. My best bit of advice: Try to be your best at all times. Work at 115% of your capacity. Do all the chores. All the diaper changes. Everything you can muster.

Because there will come a time where you or your wife will feel like somehow one of you is doing all the work. But if you commit to do as much as you possibly can, that rift can’t emerge.

I’ve found that taking care of 2 kids isn’t exactly the hard part. It’s maintaining a healthy, loving relationship with your partner that is the hardest. So keep that as the #1 or #2 priority.

Jordan Peterson on This Past Weekend was great

My wife has a Camry. 2018. It’s great. Reliable. Good gas mileage.

There’s massive value in a simple algo

I.e first five posts you see are most interacted posts of the day

Top 5 accounts you typically engage with.

No need for politically motivated algos we are used to. Simple common sense algos are incredible.

You think you’ll recommend something other than Raspberry Pi Zero for seed signer? What would have to change in the hardware industry to make a better option?