Subnostr

No, just say existing bondholders aren't getting anything above 2%. Then the interest expense goes to very low. Then cut spending so it's 100% funded through tax receipts. No additional debt issuance necessary.

So maybe likely in the next few years then

Chris 1y ago

In fact, I think this dynamic is what REALLY ignites the parabolic move in Bitcoin for this cycle. 2024-26.

Just my 2 cents.

Replying to

Ben Ewing

No, just say existing bondholders aren't getting anything above 2%. Then the interest expense goes to very low. Then cut spending so it's 100% funded through tax receipts. No additional debt issuance necessary.

So maybe likely in the next few years then

Chris 1y ago

Like I was saying, this is legally (and functionally) impossible.

Legally, because it violates the contract law that the US (and others) depend on to run their international bond markets. Full stop.

Functionally, because the second they tried such an obviously “banana republic” move, there would be a complete collapse in the price of the entire medium to long end of the yield curve. As in “Game Over”. Requiring the FED to print 100s of trillions to mop up the blood bath of the collapsed tsy market and likely all bond markets dependent on the tsy market for reference like mortgages and corporates.

Much more likely, as external buyers for longer US govt paper continues to dry up while yields drift higher, the Fed will be forced to re-initiate some form of QE (infinity) to pick up the slack and keep rates under control.

I (and others like Larry Lepard/Preston Pysh) expect this to be coming very very soon. Possibly even before the e end of this calendar year.

Very very bullish for Bitcoin and Gold.

Replying to

Ben Ewing

Gundlach floated the idea lately that US could say that any bond coupon will be capped at 2%, which would dramatically reduce the govt interest expense but also make the us treasury market instantly illiquid, so us couldn't issue more debt, resulting in massive austerity. This would solve the problem of debt going forward. It would also likely not be good for bitcoin, as it would make us dollar harder.

Chris 1y ago

I didn’t see what JG specifically said, but what you outlined here does not sound coherent (or feasible) to anyone (like me) that spent decades working in the US bond markets.

If the FED introduced a form of YCC (yield curve control) that forced the entire curve to be flat at 2 percent, the only way to achieve this would be to print the 10s of trillions necessary to, effectively, buy up all/most of the available supply. Past AND future.

This would be very very BAD for the US dollar (read: hyperinflation territory) and very very GOOD for ANY hard asset. Especially Bitcoin and Gold.

There is exactly ZERO chance anything like this will be attempted NEAR term. However, some (creeping) version of this will become absolutely inevitable LONG term.

Replying to

mattaroo

AI is a dead end. It does not lead to accession for humanity. We don’t need technology when we have high vibrational consciousness spreading rapidly throughout humanity 💜🌹💜

Chris 1y ago

IMO, it’s providing an environmental pressure point to further accelerate us (as a species) into this ascension process.

“We are the Tech”

👁️🪬💓🧬

Replying to

zach

Tell the ones you love that you love them.

Chris 1y ago

My Joy! 🎸🎶

Replying to

mattaroo

Yes. I agree. I say perpetual bid because on a log chart they will be always look like buyer’s. The Hedge Fund Carry Trade unwind continues and I think that the suits will learn the hard way by trying to outsmart this asset and failing. I know I did. Just about everyone I know did. I look at each of my BTC purchases as its own 4 year minimum hold period.

Chris 1y ago

Agreed 🍊🚀

Tempting but potentially lethal to trade ☠️

Better to just HODL!

Replying to

IntuitiveGuy☯️

Will this happen again..? 😅😂

Chris 1y ago

Mkt needs more despair and capitulation to set up for the next (massive) leg up of this bull run. IMO

Replying to

IntuitiveGuy☯️

Will this happen again..? 😅😂

Chris 1y ago

Nope….

Replying to

mattaroo

IMO, since we have a perpetual bid (ETF's) I just don't see how the selling pressure can get to the point that we see low to mid 50K. My bet is that if we hit 60k, that is the floor. Of course, nobody knows and I am always taken back by the volatility of BTC.

Chris 1y ago

Curious. Why do you think there is a consistent and “perpetual bid” from the ETFs? As we speak, we are on day 7 of consecutive OUTFLOWS from the ETFs.

IMO (as a former wall st guy), The ETFs are more than anything, a momentum trading vehicle. Up AND down. Hence, they are selling now as there is no upward momentum for the time being.

In fact, if we do hit low 50’s again, the ETFs will likely be the weak marginal seller that creates that low!

Just food for thought 😉

PS

Once this overhang clears and we make new ATHs, the ETFs will almost surely pile back in and drive the next part of this cycle higher than even you and I imagine.

That’s the ride we are in for now with the wall st traders in the flow. 🤪

Replying to

mattaroo

The carry / basis trade is unwinding as the funding rates have gone negative. Price should bounce off of 60k. Start stacking.

Chris 1y ago

More likely the price bleeds down into the mid/low 50s over next month (or 2) on further deteriorating sentiment and speculators/short term holders continuing to capitulate.

Setting up for a ripping rally in Aug-Nov that takes price violently through ATHs and touching 100k for the first time. Just as Fed is pivoting to mop up all the treasuries coming home to roost. 💵 🔥

I’ve been buying all along the way, and will continue to until we make new ATHs. 😉

Chris 1y ago

This guy seemed to be eyeing my coffee with intense curiosity this morning.

👀 ☕️ 🤤

#GM

#Nature