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Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

Is there a scenario where deflation (appreciation of money) out runs the majority of people or countries? Especially if your skills as a worker are not changing much and your becoming easier to replace with smarter, lower cost technology?

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I spoke at a big bitcoin-adjacent company this week and one of the best questions was from someone who asked what the downsides of bitcoin adoption might be.

I always do appreciate these steelman questions, the skeptical questions, the ones where we challenge ourselves. Only when we can answer those types of questions do we understand the concept that we are promoting.

So the classic example is that in modern economic literature, "deflation is bad". This, however, is only the case in a highly indebted system. Normally, deflation is good. Money appreciates, technology improves, and goods and services get cheaper over time as they should. Price of Tomorrow covers this well. My book touches on this too, etc. The "deflation is bad" meme is still alive in modern economic discourse and thus is worth countering, but I think in the bitcoin spectrum of communities, people get that deflation is fine and good.

My answer to the question was in two parts.

The first part was technological determinism. In other words, if we were to re-run humanity multiple times, there are certain rare accidents that might not replicate, and other commonalities that probably would. Much like steam engines, internal combustion engines, electricity, and nuclear power, I think a decentralized network of money is something we would eventually come across. In our case, Bitcoin came into existence as soon as the bandwidth and encryption tech allowed it to. In other universes or simulations it might look a bit different (e.g. might not be 21 million or ten minute block times exactly), but I think decentralized real-time settlement would become apparent as readily as electricity does, for any civilization that reaches this point. So ethics aside, it just is what it is. It exists, and thus we must deal with it.

The second part was that in my view, transparency and individual empowerment is rarely a bad thing. Half of the world is autocratic. And half of the world (not quite the same half) deals with massive structural inflation. A decentralized spreadsheet that allows individuals to store and send value can't possibly be a bad thing, unless humanity itself is totally corrupted. I then went into more detail with examples about historical war financing, and all sorts of tangible stuff. In other words, a whole chapter full of stuff. I've addressed this in some articles to.

In your view, if you had to steelman the argument as best as you could, what are the scenarios where bitcoin is *BAD* for humanity rather than good for it, on net?

- if things became very cheap and the money becomes strong it may lead to a surge of new resource consumption. If the part of humanity that has gone without for so long reaches a point where they can afford these cheaper products would their desire and ability to consume naturally increase?

I somewhat agree with the “time preference” counter argument, however I still believe, in a number of cases/populations, the time preference argument doesn’t hold.

If someone asked you to make a cocktail of the things that get you excited about nostr what would be in it?

ODELL brought me here, legend.

Replying to Avatar Derek Ross

Hey! Are you a new Nostrich? Are you practicing safe nsecs?

https://void.cat/d/Ujcm7u44K6uqrcT2K5YGaK.webp

You should never enter your nostr private key (nsec) into web clients. Think of this as your password, but you can't change it, and it's used to post all of your events and notes on nostr. It's very important. You need to keep it safe!

So, if you're using a web client such as snort, primal, coracle, satellite, or iris etc., you should not be entering in your nsec private key into these websites. It's just good security practice! Some web clients won't even function or allow you to sign into them unless you're using a Nostr extension (sometimes referred to as NIP-07).

To help you and your private key stay safe, you may use a web browser extension to hold your key for you and sign your events and notes on nostr on your behalf. The two most popular ones are nos2x and Alby. Nos2x was developed by nostr:npub180cvv07tjdrrgpa0j7j7tmnyl2yr6yr7l8j4s3evf6u64th6gkwsyjh6w6 and is very basic, but to the point. nostr:npub1getal6ykt05fsz5nqu4uld09nfj3y3qxmv8crys4aeut53unfvlqr80nfm has some nice additional features included, such as a being a Lightning wallet, giving you a Lightning address, and a Nostr address.

I personally use them both for different situations. On desktop, I use Alby. On my Android phone with the Kiwi browser, I use nos2x.

If you have questions, do not be afraid to ask! 🤙

New to nostr and want to know. Does the act of simply of opening a brand new nostr account on one of these web based clients expose me to what you say above? I just starting using one of the web clients but haven’t even looked at my nsec let alone copied it (yet). Does that count?

Unfortunately it seems there will always be incentives for people to scam, some may need to scam out of necessity. Punishment is only one tool in the belt and it doesn’t have much efficacy, or why would we be talking about it? An it especially has little effect on those that are desperate.

Like others have alluded to, the scammees need tools and education to defend themselves. At the same time scammers need a barrier to entry and punishment if caught?

Replying to Avatar bitcoin.rocks

The blue check is gone

Thanks #[1]​ for showing me the light 💡

The following explains my reasoning, and was just posted on Twitter:

This month’s bitcoin sticker contest marks the end of our journey here on Twitter.

One year ago, bitcoin.rocks was born out of a desire to accelerate Bitcoin adoption. I launched a simple educational website to make it easier to orange pill people when they ask about Bitcoin. Naturally, I came to Bitcoin Twitter to spread the word.

A couple months later, I launched our free Bitcoin stickers to allow anyone to put an orange pill in public that links to our educational bitcoin website. Since then, I have been blown away by everyone who has gotten involved. Whether you’ve put 1 sticker in public or 1,000 — thank you. You have helped accelerate Bitcoin adoption!

40,000 stickers and 1 year later, it’s with a heavy heart that I say goodbye to Bitcoin Twitter. But this is not a goodbye to you, only a goodbye to centralized services which seek to surveil us, profit from our content, and invade our subconscious.

Our sticker contests are not going anywhere. They’re just moving to a place without surveillance. A place without censorship. A place where I can maintain the valuable connections I’ve built here without fear of someone flipping a switch and taking that all away.

All of our sticker competitions, sticker bounties, and communication is moving to Nostr.

Nostr is not just another social media website. Nostr, like Bitcoin, is a decentralized protocol —not a centralized platform. Bitcoin allows me to truly own my money and spend it without fear of censorship. Nostr allows me to truly own my social connections and speak without fear of censorship.

But why? Why not continue to post on Twitter *and* Nostr?

Because, in the words of Disclosure: “WHERE YOUR FOCUS GOES, YOUR ENERGY FLOWS”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZ5opH51lA

Just like I do not wish to put any of my energy into the centralized financial system, I do not wish to put any of my energy into a centralized communication platform.

You may be reading this thinking that you will never be censored here. But one day, you will. And when that happens, all of the energy you have poured into your content and following will be gone in the blink of an eye. Your business can be destroyed overnight. Your strong social community can be erased in an instant. This is true of all centralized platforms.

But on decentralized protocols like Nostr, all of the energy you pour into your content and following are yours forever. No one can take them from you. No one can silence your voice.

Joining Nostr is incredibly easy. If you can download an app, you can download a Nostr client and experience all that Nostr has to offer. Here’s a simple guide: https://bitcoin.rocks/nostr

Once you’ve downloaded your Nostr client, search our npub to follow us there: npub18kpw3akvdsyk239lx0jgwksr74sq4nlha3r8u9g2rnrhztfpfhysy469c4

Thank you all so much for making the first year of the bitcoin.rocks journey so fun, exciting, and rewarding. I hope you will all join me for the next year in the one place aligned with the values of what brought us all here in the first place: Bitcoin.

Choice one

I’m trying to see if I can understand this correctly, feel free to help out.

My brain can’t seem to figure out how the “neg real rates”erodes the debt. It seems to be something to do with inflation, given they state a “healthy dose” of it helps. So inflating money supply erodes debt somehow?? Help I’m tail spinning!

But I do understand how low nominal interest rates would help when servicing debt. I now understand the terms “negative real interest rates” and how it’s derived. Just missing something.

Thanks in advance

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

I know physicians in Egypt that, after their shift, go home and stack physical dollar bills. They earn no interest. If a thief or a fire takes their home, they're done.

They have looked around at the monetary technologies available to them, and decided that this was the best one: stacks of paper claims issued by the global hegemon that they're not particularly fond of, stored in their own home rather than trust the banks. What a sad state of affairs.

They put as much of their illiquid net worth as possible into buying a condo, and the rest of their liquid net worth goes into paper dollars with no interest. So, for starters, they have to sacrifice liquidity for savings.

Egypt is not a very tech-savvy market; bitcoin, stablecoins, and other similar tech are all on the fringes. Many Muslims believe that bitcoin is speculation and thus bad, and so I appreciate the work that Saifedean and others do to show that no, bitcoin is interest-free sound money and good. If anything it's fiat money that doesn't conform to Muslim ideals. But more importantly, most Egyptians haven't actually spent time to understand the tech, unlike Nigeria or other countries. It's just not a "thing" there yet.

The only time I encountered someone in person who had not yet heard of bitcoin, was in Egypt. I was speaking to a friend, and we were talking about the Iranian protests; she was happy that many women had taken off their head coverings if they wanted to (she herself was someone who did so in Egypt, where it's permissible). I was like, "yeah, but it's rough for them. They risk getting bank accounts shut off. That's why some of them have promoted bitcoin. but I think it's still way too small yet."

And she was like, "what's bitcoin?"

And I was surprised. Many people haven't understood bitcoin, but most have heard the name. She hadn't heard the name even in 2022.

What we have today is clearly a local maximum. This is clearly not the height of monetary technology.

nostr:note1thet3ggupzn9rmll84u4s2zunhah9a6l2ucjkvr95xlcp0h36tqqsg9eqc

I assume they don’t know about nostr either? Even though I’m still not 100% sure nostr or BTC is a way forward for people in situations like you explain, I do feel these new technologies, at the very least, show them another way.

A touch extreme but makes sense