Close enough.
I'm getting about one Lyn Alden a day following me--she must really like me!
That's been a looooong time coming.
Been a long time! Good to see you.
GM ☕
Only the paranoid survive, the rest are ngmi.
Many engineers do this with other endeavors, such as politics and law. Their biggest sin is assuming humans are a "system" to be "optimized", using force if necessary.
This was a great article!
In a lot of ways this has already happened. Much more interest exists now in NGU, political engagement, and "integration" with tradfi services than in censorship resistance, bypassing existing financial structures, and make politicians irrelevant.
I've had good luck, but at my level of Rust development skill, I probably haven't thrown anything really hard at it.
My public prediction:
By 2030, the USD will have ceased to be a reserve currency except among some subset of US trading partners, and hyperinflation will then be in full force.
There is no longer anyone running the train, only thugs looting its cargo and jumping off before it derails, leaving everyone else holding the bags.
And there is nobody coming to save you.
Maybe I'm just easily impressed.
The ability of MS copilot/GPT to analyze, fix, or write new Rust code is pretty mind blowing.
I'm not a Rust expert, but I'm getting close to being an expert Rust prompt engineer 😆
Ah, I see now the emphasis you were going for in your original note. Polls estimate voter sentiment, prediction markets estimate odds of winning.
Yes, completely agree! Skin in the game generates a quite different signal.
GM ☕
Well sure, having skin in the game is a big improvement, and at least in theory converges to an equilibrium one can draw information from.
But the results are still skewed by non-representative participants, and unfortunately, so little volume that they are are easily manipulated.
If these things had 100x the trading volume I might put more stock in them.
Hey, it could happen...
Then there is the subgroup of people who *want* to be controlled.
