Subnostr

GM

**Prediction:** A quarter of the current altcoin market cap ($250 billion) held by altcoin investors will rotate into Bitcoin over the next 24 months.

This capital largely represents retail investors who initially sought quick price pumps but are now realizing those gains are unlikely to materialize.

When Ethereum falters, the rest of the altcoin market's narrative falters with it. I predict that this exodus will begin in early March, marking the start of a significant shift in market dynamics.

February is traditionally the strongest month for altcoin price appreciation, coinciding with Bitcoin's halving cycles and creating a predictable pattern of performance. And yes, this is where we're at with the depth of analysis with altcoin holders. However, this February will likely be the last gasp for the "alt season" narrative. With only 18 days left in the month, altcoin holders are running out of time to get into season.

The assumptions underpinning altcoin investments have proven incorrect and are becoming increasingly untenable. Based on my conversations with Ethereum (ETH) holders—who I believe represent a majority of ETH investors—their initial assumptions were as follows:

1. Diversification outside of Bitcoin makes sense.

2. Ethereum is "the next Bitcoin."

3. Ethereum is decentralized.

4. Ethereum is the backbone of Web3 with higher potential than Bitcoin.

5. Proof-of-stake is superior to proof-of-work.

6. "Alt season" is imminent.

These assumptions were flawed from the outset, but now they have become both exhausting and embarrassing for many investors to maintain—and they know it.

The proliferation of frivolous projects like Jailcoin, Trumpcoin, and Lucrecoin has made the crypto space seem even more absurd while diluting potential capital that might have otherwise flowed into Ethereum had it been a sound project.

To date, Ethereum's most "successful" projects include Uniswap, MakerDAO, Polygon, Chainlink, and Arbitrum. While these projects are often cited as examples of Ethereum's utility, they fail to justify its long-term value proposition. Take Uniswap as an example: it allows users to swap tokens easily via liquidity pools, eliminating the need for traditional order books.

> "Uniswap revolutionized crypto trading by introducing automated liquidity pools, allowing users to trade directly from their wallets without intermediaries."

However, liquidity remains a critical issue. The altcoin industry relies heavily on speculative price pumps to attract new capital, but with retail investors exiting and chasing the next gimmick coin (e.g., Trumpcoin or Jailcoin), Ethereum struggles to sustain meaningful liquidity or new investment.

While some ETFs may allocate funds to Ethereum, it's increasingly clear that retail capital in the alt market is driven by pump-and-dump excitement rather than Ethereum's original promises.

Long-term ETH holders were primarily hoping for Bitcoin-like returns but have been disillusioned by ETH/BTC price charts consistently underperforming.

This month marks the end of the "alt season" narrative as Bitcoin gains a new wave of advocates—disgruntled former altcoin investors who feel misled by false promises.