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Resonance Cascade The II
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Watching the consumption of things we currently value, cascading into an energy network

Technology trends to the marginal cost of production. This is even more true with AI

Is the ECB on nostr? What platform is that I'm not familiar?

Got all these fucking clowns going on about supercycles, 8 year bull markets etc.

Yet the most comforting (and required) thing, is if the cycle repeats. Required because it flushes out the sewage

What about royalty? Like Nigerian princes? I hear they're quite rare...

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the crazy things about AI and robotics is that in the year 2025, most people still don't use Roombas or other robotic vacuum cleaners.

They're useful in many contexts, but they're not clearly better across most metrics than a human with a vacuum cleaner yet. They've been out for a very long time, gradually improving. And that's one *very specific* task with pretty clear visualization requirements and floor mobility requirements and pretty low safety thresholds with high repetition levels, and yet that market isn't dominated by robotics yet.

That's an example of why I continue to view white collar computer-work AI as being *way* ahead of in-the-field blue collar robotic AI in terms of competing with human jobs.

The moment where it's a joke to buy a human-powered vacuum instead of a robot vacuum, rather than a debatable trade-off, is kind of the canary in the coal mine moment for consumer robotics. We can't even nail that yet, but once we do, it's kind of a floodgate moment, considering how long that task has been in the works for, and it will probably quickly expand to other areas following that moment.

That's kind of my basic test for robot hype. Yes, they're getting better and better. Yes, they do backflips now. Yes, it's a big deal. But in-the-field blue collar skilled work is a really high bar, and we haven't fully cleared the "vacuum carpeted areas of the same house floor area over and over" stage of that yet.

Everything is kind of hype until that stage is fully breached. Then it's off to the races.

What's your view of that heuristic?

This is my yardstick for self-driving cars, if we cannot nail a simple task like vacuuming, or mowing grass.

I hope all these clowns buy all the shit they can, more Bitcoin for the virtuous

Couldn't agree more. Especially bank runs and exchange failures also cascading liquidations excite me