Burned Before, Bond Markets Resume Rate-Cutting Trades Worldwide
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Bond traders are cautiously reloading wagers that burned them just weeks ago as the Federal Reserve and key global peers finally appear set to begin reducing interest rates as soon as June. The prospect of lower rates is boosting the allure of shorter-dated obligations due in around five years or less. Investors are feeling a flicker of what unfolded in late-2023 when the Treasury market rallied into year-end as expectations swept global markets that policymakers would reduce rates early in 2024. Rates traders are leaning toward June as the start of the Fed easing cycle, after entering the year banking on a March kickoff. For all of 2024, they see a bit more than Fed officials’ median forecast of 75 basis points of reductions. Among the major central banks, the Bank of Japan stands apart, with economists projecting it will lift rates again later this year, after scrapping its easing program last week.
#BondMarkets #InterestRates #FederalReserve #GlobalPeers #RatecuttingTrades
US Inflation Gauge Seen Bolstering Fed Patience on Rates
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The core personal consumption expenditures, which excludes food and energy costs, is seen rising 0.3% in February, following its biggest monthly increase in a year. The inflation gauge is forecast to climb 0.4%, the most since September. These high inflation readings indicate why the Federal Reserve is cautious about cutting interest rates too soon.
#UsInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates
America Is Down to Its Last 100 Cotton Mills
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Many of the US's remaining textile factories that turn cotton fibers into yarn and fabric are shutting down for good. The Chicago World's Fair in 1893 showcased the growth and prowess of the US textile industry, with over 60 cotton-specific manufacturers. The US is now left with only 100 cotton mills. Export markets remain the last hope for farmers.
#UsCottonMills #TextileIndustry #CottonFibers #Yarn #Fabric #ExportMarkets #Farmers
UK In Grip Of Worst Health-Related Work Crisis Since 1990s
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Britain is facing a £16 billion ($20.1 billion) annual bill to cover the rising cost of disability benefits over the next five years as the country grapples with the longest sustained rise in health-related inactivity since the 1990s. The UK is experiencing a unique employment crisis, with 600,000 more working-age Britons than before the pandemic neither in work nor looking for a job due to ill health. The lack of available workers has become one of the most pressing economic issues in the country. The problems appear to be concentrated among the young (aged 16 to 24) and the old (aged 55-64), with the middle-aged groups seemingly unaffected. Spending on disability benefits is forecasted to rise by £16.1 billion to £52.2 billion between 2023-24 and 2028-29, a 45% increase. The trend reflects older workers being more likely to experience ill-health, and a recent trend of deteriorating health among young people. Health-related inactivity is likely to remain a major challenge for years to come.
#Uk #Employment #DisabilityBenefits #HealthrelatedInactivity #Economy
Biden Budget Showcases Looming US Tax Battle
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Competing Democratic and Republican fiscal plans presented in Washington in recent days showcased how US tax policy will be a key battle line in the November elections.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-12/world-economy-latest-tax-battle
Analysis of US CPI Report for January
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The US CPI report for January is expected to show that inflation continued its [trend] in January. CPI in December advanced 0.2%. Economists will be looking closely at the [breakdown] of inflation, particularly goods versus services. The trend has been a softening in goods while services prices have been stickier. The report should also show rent costs beginning to soften, reflecting market data.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-02-13/us-cpi-report-for-january
Apollo’s Zelter Sees Pockets of Stress Amid Resilient US Economy
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Apollo Global Management Inc. CEO, Marc Zelter, sees pockets of stress among corporate borrowers in the US economy despite its overall strength. Zelter mentioned that some companies still have a poor business plan, excessive debt, or have not fully recovered from the impact of Covid-19. He made these comments in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
#ApolloGlobalManagementInc. #MarcZelter #UsEconomy #CorporateBorrowers #Stress
US Yields to Climb Further Over Coming Weeks: MLIV Chat
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According to a chat on MLIV, US yields are expected to climb further over the coming weeks. The chat suggests that the 10-year yield could rise by another 20 or 30 basis points, and that the whole yield curve has room to rise. The strong US economy is seen as the main driver behind the rising yields. The chat also discusses the potential impact on equity markets, stating that the current backdrop of a strong economy is generally positive for stocks, but higher yields could eventually squeeze the economy and lead to a downturn in equities. The chat also briefly mentions the Swiss National Bank and its need to take action to weaken the Swiss franc due to the country's lack of inflation and currency strength.
#UsYields #MlivChat #EquityMarkets #SwissNationalBank
Asia Stocks to Rise, Treasuries Steady Before CPI: Markets Wrap
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European equity futures declined before crucial US inflation data later Tuesday that may offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The Euro Stoxx 50 contract fell 0.3%, mirroring losses in US counterparts. The yen and the dollar were steady in Asia ahead of the inflation data release. The report is expected to show the first reading below 3% for year-over-year headline inflation since March 2021, supporting the disinflation narrative.
#StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
Asia Stocks to Rise, Treasuries Steady Before CPI: Markets Wrap
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European equity futures declined before crucial US inflation data later Tuesday that may offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. The Euro Stoxx 50 contract fell 0.3%, mirroring losses in US counterparts. The yen and the dollar were steady in Asia ahead of the inflation data release. The report is expected to show the first reading below 3% for year-over-year headline inflation since March 2021, supporting the disinflation narrative.
#StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
FrontView REIT Working With Advisers on IPO This Year
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FrontView REIT, a landlord targeting 'e-commerce resistant' tenants, is considering an initial public offering (IPO) for this year. The Dallas-based company, formerly known as NADG NNN, is working with underwriters including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. on the potential IPO. FrontView's portfolio includes properties in high-traffic locations and tenants such as Starbucks, Walgreens, Chipotle, Rite Aid, and Wells Fargo. The company is led by Executive Chairman Stephen Preston and CEO Randall Star. Triple net lease REITs have underperformed the broader market in the past year.
#FrontviewReit #Ipo #RealEstate #Underwriters #JpmorganChase #BankOfAmerica #TripleNetLeaseReits
Ukraine Aid Debate Obscures Looming Spending Fight, Shutdown Risk
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The article discusses the Ukraine aid debate and its impact on the looming spending fight and the risk of a government shutdown. Congressional correspondent Erik Wasson highlights the next big hurdle for lawmakers and mentions the possibility of a US government shutdown. The article emphasizes the need to start discussing the potential shutdown again.
#UsGovernmentShutdown #UkraineAidDebate #SpendingFight
Surveillance: HSBC’s Kettner Sees Shock Potential in CPI Report
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HSBC's Kettner warns that the US inflation report has the potential to shock markets. The report on the US consumer price index (CPI) is an important milestone for the Federal Reserve's efforts to slow down inflation. The report is scheduled to be released tomorrow. Kettner believes that even a small indication of less-dovish data could spook the markets.
Six Years After Volmageddon, Volatility Fears Resurface in US Stocks
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Six years after a famous blowup in the volatility market shattered a lengthy calm in US stocks, Wall Street is growing concerned over a new boom in trades that bet against equity turbulence. Billions of dollars are pouring into strategies that seek to juice returns by selling options.
Uber Raises Expectations for the Gig Economy
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Uber's earnings report boosts expectations for the gig economy ahead of Lyft and DoorDash results. Lyft and DoorDash are set to report their financial results this week. Uber's earnings report indicates positive growth in the gig economy. The article highlights the significance of Uber's performance in shaping expectations for other gig economy companies. The gig economy refers to a labor market characterized by short-term contracts and freelance work. Uber's strong earnings report suggests a positive outlook for the gig economy as a whole. Lyft and DoorDash's upcoming financial results will provide further insight into the state of the gig economy.
How a Second Trump Administration Could Upend US-China Relations
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Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a harsher stance toward trade with China. The Biden administration has continued the Trump tariff regime and enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China's use of technology. Trump is suggesting even higher tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods. The impact of these potential tariffs on the US economy and global trade is analyzed in this episode. It explores whether it would lead to higher prices for Americans, a slowing of the economy, increased domestic manufacturing, or more imports from other countries.
#Us-chinaRelations #TradeTariffs #DonaldTrump #BidenAdministration #GlobalTrade #UsEconomy #Inflation #DomesticManufacturing
Australian Bonds Fall Ahead of US Inflation Data: Markets Wrap
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Australian and New Zealand bonds fell ahead of US inflation data this week. The two nations’ 10-year yields climbed three basis points in early trading Monday. US inflation data due Tuesday will be crucial for the Federal Reserve. Headline year-over-year inflation is expected to come in at 2.9%. Core inflation is set to ease fractionally lower to 3.7% on an annual basis. The S&P 500 closed above 5,000 index points for the first time. The yen is the worst performer among Group of 10 currencies this year. Oil prices rose Friday, capping five days of consecutive increases for the price of West Texas Intermediate. In Asia, data set for release includes inflation and industrial output reports for India.
#AustralianBonds #UsInflationData #FederalReserve #S&p500 #Yen #OilPrices #India
In Trump-Biden Rematch, the Only Sure Loser Is China
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In a potential Trump-Biden 2024 election rematch, Trump is proposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, which would significantly reduce the $575 billion trade pipeline between the US and China. Trump has other escalations in mind if he wins the election. The article suggests that China would be the only sure loser in this scenario.
Trump Says There’s ‘No Way’ Taylor Swift Can Endorse Biden
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Former President Trump says there’s 'no way' Taylor Swift can endorse President Biden for re-election, claiming she could not be 'disloyal to the man who made her so much money.' Trump stated that he signed and was responsible for the Music Modernization Act for Taylor Swift and all other musical artists, while Joe Biden didn't do anything for her and never will.
CPI, Super Bowl and Gym Fatigue: Sunday US Briefing
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US inflation likely continued to slow at the start of the year, with the core consumer price index (CPI) falling below 3% for the first time in nearly two years. Economists forecast Tuesday's report to show the CPI ticking closer to the 2% target. The Federal Reserve is expected to start lowering interest rates soon, but not likely in March.
#UsInflation #Cpi #InterestRates #FederalReserve #SuperBowl
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/cpi-super-bowl-and-gym-fatigue-sunday-us-briefing