//The Wire//2300Z February 24, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS IN GAINS FOR THE AFD, THOUGH CDU/CSU TAKES LEAD. POPE FRANCIS REMAINS IN CRITICAL CONDITION. AMERICAN GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES DRAW IRE OF FEDERAL WORKERS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Vatican City: Over the weekend the Vatican confirmed that Pope Francis remains in critical condition regarding his previous illness.
Germany: Sunday's election resulted in Friedrich Merz becoming the new Chancellor, as the CDU/CSU took 33% of the vote. While falling short of any sort of majority, the AfD party surprised many by coming in second place, winning 24% of the vote. AC: The key takeaway from this election is that the AfD now has more bargaining power than in previous years, albeit falling short of their own goals. Though by American standards the AfD is a rather lukewarm center-right party (at best), throughout Germany the AfD party has been vilified as extreme-far-right (which may be technically true for Germany's perspective, by comparison with other political parties). As such, this signals a significant shift in atmospherics throughout the nation, even if radical changes in the grand scheme of national politics will be challenging to arrive at..
-HomeFront-
New York: Sunday evening American Airlines Flight 292 bound for Delhi was diverted to Rome due to a bomb threat. After a security inspection in Rome detected no threat to the aircraft, the flight was cleared for departure to Delhi. AC: These types of bomb threats are relatively common. Though American Airlines has not specified the exact details of what resulted in the brief diversion, it is very likely that a threat was received (probably on social media) that referenced this specific flight, which caused the security concerns.
Georgia: This morning Delta Flight 876 (bound for Columbia, SC from Atlanta) experienced an in-flight emergency via smoke filling the passenger cabin. The aircraft promptly returned to Atlanta due to the smoke.
California: Saturday night, Delta Flight 43 (bound for Sydney from Los Angeles) also experienced an in-flight emergency with smoke filling the passenger cabin.
AC: Of note, though two separate emergencies of similar characteristics (and via the same airline) occurring within 24 hours of each other is rare, it must be noted that both smoke incidents involved separate airframes. The Los Angeles emergency involved an Airbus A350, and the Atlanta incident involved a smaller regional jet, a Boeing 717-200.
Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted over the past few days regarding various initiatives to improve the efficiency of government agencies. Over the weekend an email was sent out from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to every single federal employee, requesting them to provide a short list of 5 bullets regarding what they had completed last week.
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Analyst Comments: As the OPM email was sent out to everyone, from every single military service member to the highest-paid directors of various federal agencies, mass pandemonium has largely been the result. The initial knee-jerk reaction for many department directors of various levels of bureaucracy has been to order their subordinates to not reply to the email. The Department of Defense also issued guidance to prevent all service members from responding to the email as well.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: THOUGHT CRIMES REMAIN CONCERNING THROUGHOUT EUROPE. KASH PATEL CONFIRMED AS FBI DIRECTOR. TWO JUVENILES ARRESTED FOR ALLEGED SCHOOL ATTACK PLOT IN TEXAS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Scotland: This morning a 74-year-old woman was arrested for speech and thought crimes. Rose Docherty (a well known, pro-life advocate) was arrested for demonstrating via standing on a sidewalk outside Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, a very large medical complex that houses abortion facilities. At the time of her arrest she was holding a sign that read "Coercion is a crime, here to talk, only if you want".
-HomeFront-
Texas: Two juveniles were arrested for an alleged plot to attack a school in Houston. The two unidentified girls, aged 15 and 16, allegedly posted the details of the plot on social media.
Washington D.C. - In Congress, Kash Patel was confirmed as the next Director of the FBI this afternoon. This morning Senator Mitch McConnell announced that he will be stepping down from his seat in the Senate. AC: This is not an immediate resignation, but rather an announcement that he will not seek reelection next year.
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Analyst Comments: The arrest of Rose Docherty was made under the so-called "buffer zone" laws, which have recently gained scrutiny after being denounced by American Vice President JD Vance. Regardless of the recent media coverage, the policing of thought crimes and the persecution of Christianity throughout Scotland, the British Isles, and almost all of western Europe has remained a little-discussed (yet exceptionally grave) concern for many years. Silent Christian prayer, even including praying inside one's own home, has been relentlessly targeted by authorities, drawing the ire of those who have been subjected to public Islamic calls for prayer, which have included the participation of hundreds of official government officials and buildings. As pointed out by American diplomats (such as JD Vance), this double standard is a very large societal problem that is impacting civilization itself throughout Europe.
Regarding the alleged threats in Texas, neither of the two girls were attendees of the school which was threatened (Memorial High School), both were students at neighboring schools. While inter-school rivalries are extremely common throughout the nation, in this case authorities state that the undisclosed attack details were specific and credible enough to warrant the arrests. However, the FBI is the lead agency in charge of this investigation, which has caused doubts due to the FBI's long and very questionable history pertaining to these types of events.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR EXPANDS IN THE CONGO. TENSIONS BUILD BETWEEN THE US AND UKRAINE FOLLOWING ZELENSKY BEING SIDE-LINED DURING PEACE TALKS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The advance by M23 rebels in the eastern districts of the country has continued, with the rebels capturing the city of Bukavu yesterday. Separately, in the northeastern region of Bunia, Uganda launched an invasion of their own, deploying special forces soldiers throughout the region.
AC: The flimsy attempt to conceal the M23 "rebels" as an independent group has largely fallen away, as the military uniforms that the "rebels" are now wearing more or less confirm that these forces are in fact mercenaries slow-walking a Rwandan invasion of the DRC. Uganda now wanting a piece of the action is very likely to escalate the situation further, and probably marks a new era of the decades-long conflict.
Europe: Tensions remain elevated between the United States and Ukraine, with Ukrainian leader Zelensky expressing a variety of hostile sentiments towards the United States for himself not being invited to the peace talks conference currently underway in Saudi Arabia.
-HomeFront-
USA: The arrival of winter weather conditions throughout much of the central and eastern parts of the nation has caused significant travel delays. Many airlines have issued ground stops for much of the central United States due to poor weather conditions. In Kentucky, the casualty figure has risen to 14x fatalities resulting from the recent flooding disasters throughout much of the state.
Arizona: This morning an aircraft collision was reported at the Marana Regional Airport, which resulted in the destruction of two small planes. Two fatalities were reported as a result of the collision. AC: As the focus remains on aviation mishaps nationwide, it will be up to the individual to conduct their own analysis to determine if these events are happening more often, or if the increased media coverage is skewing the overall risk assessment.
Washington D.C. - Various Presidential actions continue, with a handful of cartels being formally designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) this afternoon. AC: This decision was made weeks ago, and already in practice as evidenced by the significant intelligence collection efforts recently undertaken by the United States in Mexico. As the formalization of this decision is solidified in policy, the ball is now in the court of the various cartels to determine what their reaction will be.
On the diplomatic front, relations between the United States and Russia have improved significantly over the past few days, at the expense of rapidly deteriorating relations with Ukraine and most of Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an official restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia, as part of ongoing conversations pertaining to peace talks.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As has long been theorized since the start of the war (and as the conflict in Ukraine draws to a close), a lot of things are going to happen in very rapid succession. Perhaps most frustratingly, a lot of things are going to happen that may seem to be nonsensical to some. This is due to the rabid censorship efforts over the past few years that have painted a specific picture...the vast majority of those in the west have largely been looking at the war through a lens that is completely one-sided. This is nothing new, however, reality is often a great equalizer in the realm of information warfare...at a certain point all of the propaganda and gaslighting falls away to reveal the reality of the situation. In the case of Ukraine, there are many people who likely still believe everything they have heard about the war, the motivations for the conflict beginning, and so on. As such, when the lies are increasingly more and more detached from the truth, the more damage is done; the bigger the lies are, the harder they fall.
Over the next few weeks, the American taxpayer is going to learn a lot of inconvenient truths, and as a result may feel a level of betrayal as the situation does not turn out the way that it has been portrayed for years. More specifically, harsh statements will very likely continue to be traded between the United States and Ukraine as it becomes more clear that ever since the West became involved in the conflict Ukraine has had very little agency or leeway to decide their own fate. Ukrainian leaders may even seek to bite the hand that feeds them, as that hand starts feeding them less. Likewise, many European nations which have been involved in the war will probably continue to express hostile sentiment toward the United States (as Germany already has), for a variety of reasons: some probably justifiable, some not so much. Either way, the rapid pivot away from the policy of the past four years is likely to cause issues domestically among Americans who have differing (and often combative) opinions on the war.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SEVERE WEATHER STRIKES APPALACHIA, MAJOR FLOODING REPORTED. MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE CONCLUDES IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: The Munich Security Conference concluded yesterday, with the focus on Ukraine being palpable among participants. While no real progress was made publicly with regards to a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, various actors have made their positions more clear. British PM Kier Starmer declared his willingness to send British soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Germany spent most of the time responding negatively to American statements that urged Germany to pay for their own defense. American Vice President JD Vance spent much of the summit pointing out the freedom of speech problems within Europe at large, signaling a new era of American concerns on the topic, as well as indicating a hard turnaround of American foreign policy away from a multipolar Europe. On the sidelines, the Ukrainian War remained a concern, with Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy expressing increasing levels of irritation that Ukraine is being sidelined with regards to the negotiations to end the war.
Canada: This afternoon a catastrophic aircraft crash was reported in Toronto. Delta Flight 4819 suffered a mishap while landing at Pearson International Airport, which resulted in the removal of both wings and the debris coming to a rest on the runway upside down. The fuselage remained mostly intact during the crash landing, and all passengers and crew are reported to have survived at this time. AC: As this is a developing situation, not much is known with any certainly regarding what caused the crash landing. However, weather conditions were less than ideal at the time of the incident.
-HomeFront-
Southeastern U.S. - Disaster strikes Appalachia again as severe storms have caused unprecedented flooding throughout the region over the past few days. Most of the severe flooding has been reported in Kentucky, which has resulted in 8 fatalities so far. Virginia has also been host to severe flooding, and significant power outages have been reported throughout the Mid-Atlantic, to the northeastern United States. FEMA has been activated, and most of the various jurisdictions throughout the region have varying levels of emergency declarations in place.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The weather events throughout the eastern United States are compounded by not only the winter weather that occurred before the flooding, but additional weather systems that are expected to sweep through the region over the next few days. Catastrophic flooding is bad enough during the best of times, but disaster recovery efforts are made exponentially more difficult when heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures are expected throughout the disaster area. Throughout the disaster zone, power outages during cold weather conditions will also undoubtedly result in more complications and more pressing needs, as many people throughout the region rely on electricity to heat their homes.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
This week's intel update is out 👍 https://youtu.be/5BaJ4kWo4og
Approximately one hour ago, a small commercial aircraft was reported as being overdue while conducting a routine flight in Alaska. A Cessna Caravan (tail number N321BA) operating for Bering Air was reportedly carrying 10x souls at the time of being reported missing.
I have pulled the aircraft's flight path, and imported all data I have to the CIP/COP Map below: https://arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=204a59b01f4443cd96718796fd102c00
Unfortunately it's not much, but I've plotted my best guess for where the aerial search is likely to be conducted. So far at least one search and rescue aircraft has been observed heading to the aircraft's last known location. I hope to have more information (and hopefully good news) by morning; this is just what I have completed tonight.
Yeah just getting set up, and figuring all of this out.
//The Wire//2300Z February 6, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USAID DISCLOSURE SCANDAL CONTINUES. MINOR AIRCRAFT COLLISION AT SEA-TAC.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Greece: Earthquakes continue as before, and increase in magnitude. Most of the earthquake clusters remain centered to the northeast of the volcanic island of Santorini. A state of emergency has been declared as the island has experienced around 7,700 earthquakes over the past week.
Philippines: Overnight a US government-affiliated aircraft crashed in Maguindanao del Sur, resulting in the deaths of four American crew members. One active duty soldier, and three US military contractors were killed in the crash. AC: Details have been hard to come by as this aircraft was an Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) asset. Anytime a spy plane crashes, the details regarding the circumstances of the crash will usually not be disclosed. The aircraft itself was a heavily-modified Beechcraft King Air 350 registered as N349CA.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The White House has walked back President Trumps claims on his plan for Gaza, with the White House stating that the United States will not be sending boots on ground to achieve his goals. The White House also stated that the American taxpayer will not be funding this venture. Yesterday afternoon SECDEF Hegseth reaffirmed American support to Israel, and stated that "all options" are being considered with regards to American involvement in the Middle East.
Also in Washington, scandal continues to develop regarding the audit of USAID, and the various entities that this agency was sending tax dollars to.
Washington: A minor aircraft collision was reported in Seattle, as a Japan Airlines aircraft collided with a Delta aircraft while taxiing. Japan Airlines Flight 68 struck the tail of Delta Flight 1921 last night, resulting in minor damage to both aircraft. AC: No injuries were reported and this appears to be a fairly common aviation mishap.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Although no formal evacuation orders have been issued in Santorini, many Greeks have departed the island voluntarily. Local media reports that roughly 12,000 people have already left the island, even though most of the earthquakes have been comparatively small. Nevertheless, local concern is beginning to mount, leading to many locals making preparations just in case.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//The Wire//1800Z February 5, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRUMP ANNOUNCES AMERICA WILL SEIZE GAZA STRIP. USA WITHDRAWS FROM UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - As part of a press conference conducted in conjunction with PM Netanyahu's visit to the United States, President Trump suddenly announced several startling policy decisions. First, President Trump reiterated multiple times that he supports the forced expulsion of every human soul in Gaza, into other nations such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan (among others). Secondly, President Trump declared that the United States will seize control of Gaza, and be responsible for managing the entire Strip. AC: As most people were rather taken aback by this bold statement, and even though Trump reiterated his words and articulated his thoughts very clearly, no one is really sure what this means in practice.
Also in Washington, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Council. AC: It's not clear how this will work out, since this appears to be contradictory to Trump's stated goals in Gaza. For instance, this (and other executive actions) have resulted in a complete defunding of the UNRWA. To many America-first voters, this may seem to be a positive budget cut at face value. However, this agency (and the UN at large) is really the only entity in the region that is corralling the refugees in Gaza. As such, if Trump wants to defund the only civilian groups that can facilitate the mass exodus of Palestinians to wherever they are destined to be, the only other options are to use military logistics to achieve this forced migration.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: For those that do not understand the sheer magnitude of President Trump's policy decision in Gaza, this is a once-in-a-century policy decision the magnitude of which is impossible to convey. Even if this is a negotiation tactic (for instance, to oversell American involvement, so that the counter-offer of Israeli occupation of Gaza looks reasonable by comparison), this is an unprecedented line of logic altogether. As stated (with much fatigue) many times before, the issue regarding the current war in the Middle East is the most hot-button issue there is, with many states (and the US government) quite literally making certain opinions on this war illegal, to some degree. So right up front, no honest discussion can be had, even by those who have the most innocent and/or neutral intentions. This is one of the most important details to remember moving forward.
Nevertheless, any comments on President Trump's recently announced policy decisions in the Middle East probably will (rather tiresomely) not have much weight at all or be able to change what is about to happen. Pushing aside the literal Merriam-Webster's definition of ethnic cleansing (and the destabilization that brings), if Trump is indeed serious about his aspirations for owning beachfront property in Gaza, he may find that getting there is more challenging than he previously thought. Trump theorizing about invading Greenland or Panama does not ring the same as invading Gaza, one of the most heavily militarized regions on Earth.
Just to wargame the significance of this for a moment, in 1990, the U.S. military invaded Panama as part of Operation Just Cause, with the goal of ousting General Manuel Noriega from power. The United States achieved this goal in 41 days after very little effort on the part of the Panamanian forces. Greenland, being an arctic nation largely centered around one or two main (but still very small) cities would not really be much of a military challenge either. Gaza, on the other hand, presents one of the most significant military challenges possible in warfare...an entrenched adversary, who is strongly dug in throughout an urban area. Even Israel, largely cratering the entire Strip, has not been able to have nearly the military success that they wanted. Bottom line: If the U.S. Military can't even build a single bridge in Gaza there's very little chance of a military campaign going as intended. No one who has seen true war wishes that experience on anyone else, and certainly not for the end result to be a five star hotel on a beach, as has been publicly conveyed already, before any of this gets started.
As stated previously, peace can come about in two ways, through a negotiated end to arms, or by killing/removing every living soul on one side of the conflict. With Trump's highly-detailed comments, no one, not even the most staunch and die-hard Trump supporter, can deny that he has made his aspirations very publicly known. Once again, this may seem like a fickle detail, but it really does matter...the United States is looking to invade another nation not because they flew planes into our buildings, or because of a general idea of "freedom".....Trump has directly stated this is purely for real estate purposes, publicly pontificating the Gaza skyline and musing on the commercial ventures that the highly-lucrative beachfront access offers in Gaza. It's hard enough to get a population to send their sons to die halfway around the world for some other country's "freedom", but it's another thing entirely to get people to die for a Burger King parking lot.
Once again, if this whole thing is a grand game of bluff, and even if it never comes to fruition, the damage has already been done in the form of long-standing international norms being fractured. Even just a few years ago, diplomats would exert the most extreme care when speaking about the Middle East, and now, this radical policy shift will probably have unintended consequences...such as heightening the terrorism risk here at home.
Speaking more broadly regarding the current threat environment in the United States, of course the entire Arab/Islamic world probably will be rather upset by this policy shift, and thus not entirely friendly to the United States (especially those currently living in the United States). Considering the current shake-ups in government, it was probably an unwise decision to piss off all of the FBI agents (who now have the perfect motivation to let a terror attack slip through, just to spite Trump) at the same moment the risk of Islamic retaliatory terror attacks is extraordinarily high. Anytime a people are quite literally pressed up against a wall, and know with 100% certainty that they will be forcibly removed from their homes, never to return again, they will fight to the death. Even Israel was smart enough to gaslight the Palestinians into thinking that the millions of refugees would someday be allowed to go back to what was left of their homes, as the Israeli government knew the power of an enemy that has no hope for a peaceful existence one day. Now, President Trump has removed the illusion altogether, not just for the Palestinians, but for the whole world. The United States has zero moral ground to stand on by opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine at this point, as even Russia is not really interested in exiling every single human being in their new "occupied territories" to a completely different nation.
On the exact same day President Trump announced this shocking policy shift, the White House also announced that he would be attending the Super Bowl this weekend in New Orleans. As a reminder, this exact same city was host to a complex Islamic-based terror attack a mere 32 days ago. It was also probably a rather poor judgement call for President Trump to state that if Iran were to assassinate him, Iran would be annihilated.....because this creates the conditions for a third party to carry out some malign act...and blame it on the Iranians. Trump has told the world that his demise would result in a total destruction of Iran...which is what Israel wants more than anything else. Netanyahu even gifted President Trump a golden pager during his state visit yesterday...a very clear, bold, and morbid message indeed.
All in all, the conditions are nearly perfect for the situation to get out of hand; even if this is a grand game of bluff, the escalation of risk is exceptionally great when it comes to the terrorism risks this game brings to the table. Bullying Canada (and to some extent, the Mexican government) is nothing compared to inflaming tensions with the Muslim world...and this could not have come at a worse time.
Most federal law enforcement agencies are angry at Trump for personal reasons (many of which are about to be fired, and thus have nothing to lose by doing their jobs poorly). Most people of Islamic faith or more generally supporters of the Palestine movement now have more motive than ever to conduct some sort of attack, and quite literally none of the personal threats to Trump (from the campaign) have really been addressed at all. Even the two attempts on Trump's life during the campaign just fizzled out of the news cycle and no real answers ever came from the counterterrorism world on what actually happened in each case.
Even Trump's own supporters have to be conducting some sort of retrospective analysis at this point. Americans have to assess their future based on the words AND actions of their nation's leadership; for better or worse, this is a huge planning factor with variable importance. Granted, in the long run, all of this is is largely unimportant as people will eventually forget the things a person does. They'll forget the remarks, they'll forget the documents that were signed...but they won't forget how a person made them feel. And right now, it's become patently obvious that President Trump has kinder words for the people of Israel, than for the citizens of his own nation.
If Trump's actions/policies are 99% good for the country, but that last 1% involves occupying yet another hostile desert country in the Middle East, what was the net gain? To be sure, there's always the "this is just 5d chess" crowd, who will take any negative action by President Trump and try to turn it somehow into a positive action. Even as this report is written, scores of heavy-hitting pro-Trump influencers are heavily perpetuating the Sunk Cost Fallacy, gaslighting their fans into thinking that an American occupation of Gaza really is the best option. Or that this is some masterful "Art of the Deal" negotiating tactic. At this point, rejecting the words that have come directly out of Trump's mouth, verbatim, is a rejection of reality itself. At some point the American people are going to have to understand that the end result is what matters most, not what the initial intentions were. Somewhat ironically, the love of Trump from the political right, and the hatred of Trump from the political left, are equally illogical and ignorant of the reality of the situation. This alone makes any sort of semi-neutral perspective despised by both sides. But this also means that this is all the more reason for the average citizen to step up, try to do the right thing, and contribute the best they can in steering the ship through the tough times ahead.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//