US Dollar finds some gains on calm sessions, eyes on PCE
==========
The US Dollar is trading with mild gains at 104.3, close to Friday's peak of 104.50. The Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious approach toward the easing cycle, signaling caution but not panic over higher inflation projections. Investors are waiting for incoming data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures for February, which are expected to dictate the pace of the USD in the short term. The odds of easing starting in June stand near 60%. US Treasury bond yields are falling. Technical analysis suggests that the US Dollar Index is under bulls control with stable buying pressure and a long-term bullish bias.
#UsDollar #FederalReserve #Inflation #PceFigures
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-trades-mildly-up-in-quiet-wednesday-202403271644
Mexican Peso surges to eight year high against US Dollar amid lack of catalyst
==========
The Mexican Peso rallied to a new eight-year high against the US Dollar with the USD/MXN pair breaching last year’s low of 16.62, extending its losses to the 16.50s. Mexico’s narrowed trade deficit and the tighter labor market in Mexico contributed to Peso's ascent, surpassing expectations. Mexico’s economic schedule revealed that the Balance of Trade clocked a narrower deficit than January’s figures, but it exceeded the consensus. In the meantime, the labor market remains tight as the Unemployment Rate was below the previous month’s figures and estimates. Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja remained dovish via an interview with El Financiero. Governor Rodriguez commented that the battle against inflation hasn’t been concluded, though adding that in upcoming meetings it would discuss further rate cuts to the main reference rate. Banxico revealed international reserves grew to $216.9 billion, adding $411 million in US Dollars up to March 22, 2024. Attention turns to Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on Wednesday.
#MexicanPeso #UsDollar #CurrencyExchange #TradeDeficit #LaborMarket #UnemploymentRate #Banxico #FederalReserve
GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling could continue to hold above 1.2600
==========
GBP/USD lost traction and dropped below 1.2650 on Wednesday. The 200-day SMA aligns as strong support near 1.2600. Technical sellers could refrain from committing to an extended slide in the absence of fundamental drivers. The US Dollar held resilient against its major rivals on Tuesday. The UK's FTSE 100 Index trades lower, while US stock index futures rise. No data releases from the UK. The 200-day SMA aligns as strong support near 1.2600. First resistance is located at 1.2640 before 1.2670-1.2680 and 1.2710.
USD/INR loses upside traction on likely RBI intervention
==========
The Indian Rupee (INR) is recovering despite renewed US Dollar demand. The recovery is supported by likely intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb sharp swings in the Indian Rupee. The positive Indian economic outlook, with expected acceleration in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and net buying by foreign portfolio investors, could strengthen the INR and limit the upside of USD/INR. Investors will closely watch the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Friday, despite the markets being closed for Good Friday. The US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) is also due on Thursday.
#Usd/inr #Rbi #IndianRupee #UsDollar #IndianEconomy
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inr-loses-upside-traction-on-likely-rbi-intervention-202403270350
EUR/USD Price Analysis: The initial support level is seen at the 1.0800 mark
==========
EUR/USD is trading at 1.0817, gaining 0.09% on the day. The initial support level for the major pair is seen near a low of March 22 and a round figure at 1.0800. The immediate resistance level will emerge at the 100-period EMA at 1.0870. The US economy is expected to remain steady at 3.2% in Q4. The bearish outlook of EUR/USD remains unchanged as the major pair is below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The softer US Dollar provides some support to the major pair. The German February Retail Sales and the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annualized growth numbers for the fourth quarter are awaited for fresh impetus. The next contention level is located near the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.0762. On the upside, the key upside barrier will emerge at the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and a high of March 21 at the 1.0940–1.0945 region.
#Eur/usd #ForexMarket #SupportLevel #ResistanceLevel #UsDollar #GermanRetailSales #UsGdp
EUR/USD holds above 1.0800 on a weaker US Dollar, eyes on US data, Fed's Bostic speech
==========
EUR/USD is trading at 1.0816, adding 0.08% on the day. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady at 5.25–5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting last week. FOMC Chair Powell said the recent elevated CPI inflation data hadn’t changed the view that inflation is trending lower. ECB Governing Council member Edward Scicluna stated that an interest-rate cut from the ECB as soon as April could be warranted and shouldn’t be ruled out. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index and US New Home Sales data will be released on Monday, along with the Fed's Bostic speech. The German Retail Sales and US GDP Annualized growth numbers for Q4 will be released on Thursday.
Quiet week ahead in the markets
==========
Compared to last week’s bumper slate of event risk, this week will be considerably more subdued, influenced not only by limited global asset drivers but also by liquidity thinning ahead of the long Easter weekend. The headline event for the week will be the US Core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation), but given that it is released on Good Friday at 12:30 pm GMT, the response to this release could be minimal. Other data this week includes US durable goods orders data for February, US consumer confidence for March, US growth GDP data for Q4 2023, and the Aussie CPI monthly indicator for February. G10 FX (five-day change): AUD/USD finds some support above the 0.6500 mark, Australian CPI data eyed. EUR/USD fell for a second consecutive week, ending Friday just above the March low of 1.0796. Gold turned south following a record-setting upsurge on Wednesday and erased the majority of its weekly gains. Litecoin price shows strength as it attempts to recover last week’s losses. Key events in developed markets and EMEA this week include the Fed's favoured measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator, and signs of weakness in real consumer spending. The macro and technical picture suggests shorting rallies in GBP/USD.
#Markets #UsCorePceData #UsDurableGoodsOrders #UsConsumerConfidence #UsGrowthGdp #AussieCpi #G10Fx #Eur/usd #Gold #Litecoin #Gbp/usd
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/quiet-week-ahead-in-the-markets-202403250008
AUD/USD finds some support above the 0.6500 mark, Australian CPI data eyed
==========
AUD/USD trades on a weaker note near 0.6512 in Monday’s early Asian session. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers indicated that they will be in a position to cut interest rates when they have confidence that inflation is progressing towards the 2.0% target. China's Premier Li Qiang said on Sunday that the nation’s low inflation and low central government debt ratio means there is ample room for macro policy. The Australian February CPI inflation data and US Q4 GDP numbers will be in the spotlight this week. Market players will keep an eye on the Australian CPI inflation data on Wednesday, which is expected to show an increase of 3.6% YoY in February from 3.4% in the previous reading. On Thursday, the Australian February Retail Sales and the US GDP growth numbers for Q4 will be released.
#Aud/usd #AustralianCpi #UsQ4Gdp
Dollar retreats on soft US PMIs, bond yields tumble
==========
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in February fell to 47.8, way below estimates of 49.5, and 49.1 previously. US Bond yields tumbled, with the 10-year rate settling at 4.18% (4.25%). The 2-year US treasury rate slumped 11 basis points, finishing at 4.53%. The Dollar Index (USD/DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of 6 major currencies, retreated below the 104 level to 103.87 at the New York close. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) rebounded against the Greenback, settling at 0.6525 (0.6500). New Zealand’s Kiwi (NZD/USD) rallied 0.3% to 0.6105 from 0.6085 Friday. Sterling (GBP/USD) climbed to 1.2660 (1.2620). The Euro (EUR/USD) edged up 0.25% to 1.0840 (1.0807 Friday). The Japanese Yen weakened past the 150 Dollar mark. The USD/JPY pair finished at 150.12 (149.90 Friday). Wall Street stocks gained. The DOW climbed to 39,050 from 38,880 Friday while the S&P 500 added 0.79% to 5,133 (5,080 Friday). Other economic data released Friday saw the Eurozone January Unemployment Rate dip to 6.4%, against forecasts at 6.5%, unchanged from 6.4% previously. China’s February Caixin Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.9 from 50.8 previously, beating estimates at 50.6.
#Dollar #UsPmis #BondYields
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-retreats-on-soft-us-pmis-bond-yields-tumble-202403040330
Global environment and strong US economy to support USD
==========
The global environment and strong US economy are expected to support the USD. Global rates have risen as markets scale back expectations of rate cuts, aligning with the view that market pricing remains too aggressive on most G10 central banks. The US economy remains strong, supported by a tight labor market. Concerns about regional banks in the US have been reignited by the New York Community Bank incident. The war in the Middle East has continued, but the market impact has been limited. The USD has outperformed this year due to the repricing of global rate cuts and the underlying strength of the US economy. GBP has also benefited from a sharp repricing of the Bank of England and elevated inflation. The Scandies have faced headwinds, while JPY faces headwinds from a dovish Bank of Japan and higher global real rates. The outlook is for a stronger USD and weaker Scandies in the medium term. Risks to the forecast include a sharp drop in core inflation and a more resilient global economy. The publication is prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
#Usd #GlobalRates #UsEconomy #G10CentralBanks #LaborMarket #RegionalBanks #MiddleEast #Gbp #Scandies #Jpy #Inflation
Stock Market Today: Major indexes on track to open lower, eyes on US inflation data
==========
S&P 500 futures are down 0.43%, Dow Jones futures drop 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures lose 0.77%. The Utilities Sector was the best-performing major sector in the S&P 500 on Monday, rising 1.14% on the day. V.F. Corp (VFC) rose 14% to $17.43 as the top gainer of the first trading day of the week. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed on Monday that the US consumers' one-year inflation expectation held steady at 3%. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release January CPI data ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday. The headline annual CPI is forecast to rise 2.9% on a yearly basis, at a softer pace than December's 3.4%. The Core CPI is expected to increase 3.7%. Dallas Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Lorie Logan said that there is no urgency to cut interest rates. Airbnb Inc. (ABNB) and MGM Resorts International (MGM) are among top companies that will release earnings reports after the closing bell. January Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be featured in the US economic calendar later in the week.
#StockMarket #S&p500 #DowJones #Nasdaq #InflationData #UtilitiesSector #V.f.Corp #FederalReserveBankOfNewYork #UsBureauOfLaborStatistics #Cpi #DallasFederalReserveBank #AirbnbInc. #MgmResortsInternational #EarningsReports #RetailSales #IndustrialProduction #ProducerPriceIndex
Australian Dollar depreciates despite improved Consumer Confidence, US Dollar remains calm
==========
The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreats after posting gains in the previous two sessions, despite the release of improved Australia Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index surged 6.2% to 86 in February from 81 in January, marking its highest reading in 20 months. However, the index remained below the neutral 100 mark since February 2022. The depreciation of the Australian Dollar is attributed to the moderation of Australian inflation, leading to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has completed its monetary tightening cycle. The US Dollar (USD) remains calm, with market sentiment mixed ahead of the release of important US inflation data scheduled for Tuesday.
#AustralianDollar #UsDollar #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #ReserveBankOfAustralia #MarketSentiment
Five fundamentals for the week: US CPI overtowers (almost) everything
==========
The article discusses five key fundamentals for the week, focusing on the impact of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the market. The absence of Chinese traders due to the Lunar New Year holiday is expected to have a positive impact on markets. The US CPI data, including Core CPI MoM and headline CPI YoY, will be closely watched as it will affect various assets such as gold, equities, and the US dollar. UK inflation data is also expected to have a global impact. The US Retail Sales report and US Consumer Sentiment survey will provide further insights into the state of the US economy.
#UsCpi #MarketImpact #ChineseHoliday #UkInflation #UsRetailSales #UsConsumerSentiment
Gold price on February 12: Rates in main Indian cities
==========
Gold prices fell in India on February 12, with the price standing at 62,147 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 240 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 62,337 per 10 grams. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey quickly increasing their gold reserves. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. The price of gold is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar.
#Gold #India #Price #Mcx #FuturesContracts #CentralBanks
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202402120909
Gold price on February 12: Rates in main Indian cities
==========
Gold prices fell in India on February 12, with the price standing at 62,147 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 240 compared to the previous day. Futures contracts for gold also decreased to INR 62,337 per 10 grams. Central banks are the biggest buyers of gold, with emerging economies such as China, India, and Turkey quickly increasing their gold reserves. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset and a hedge against inflation and depreciating currencies. The price of gold is influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, interest rates, and the strength of the US Dollar.
#Gold #India #Price #Mcx #FuturesContracts #CentralBanks
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-gold-price-today-gold-falls-according-to-mcx-data-202402120909
Australian Dollar extends its gains due to improved risk appetite amid a subdued US Dollar
==========
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining ground due to improved risk appetite and a weakening US Dollar (USD). The AUD/USD pair is being weighed down by the subdued USD, despite stable US Treasury yields. The rise in Chinese New Loans may provide additional support for the Australian Dollar. However, the Australian money market is trending lower, disregarding a record surge in US markets. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial US inflation data that could impact interest rate expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged positive trends in recent inflation data but stressed the need for continued progress. Chinese New Loans data showed a record high, but concerns about deflation in China are dampening sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is declining amid a risk-on sentiment in the market. The US CPI data for January is expected to show a moderation to 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM. Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan stated that there is currently no pressing need to lower interest rates. The Australian Dollar is hovering around 0.6520, below the immediate barrier of the nine-day EMA at 0.6530. Key support is expected at 0.6500, while key resistance is at 0.6550. The AUD/USD pair is influenced by factors such as interest rates set by the RBA, the price of Iron Ore, the health of the Chinese economy, inflation in Australia, and market sentiment. The RBA's decisions impact the AUD by setting interest rates, while the health of the Chinese economy affects the AUD as China is Australia's largest trading partner. The price of Iron Ore is a driver of the AUD, as higher prices increase demand for the currency. The Trade Balance, which is the difference between exports and imports, also influences the value of the AUD. The AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6520 in the Asian session, with a focus on risk sentiment and the upcoming US CPI data.
#AustralianDollar #UsDollar #RiskAppetite #UsInflationData
EUR/USD Forecast: Sellers aligned ahead of 1.0800
==========
The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.0788 early on Thursday, turning south mid-European session and currently trading in the 1.0750 price zone. The US Dollar finds support in firmer US government bond yields, holds within familiar levels. The European Central Bank Economic Bulletin repeated the well-known message of higher for longer. EUR/USD met sellers ahead of 1.0800, aims to extend its slide below 1.0700. The European Central Bank (ECB) released the Economic Bulletin, usually published two weeks after the central bank’s meeting. The document showed the Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner, adding the risks to economic growth remain tilted to the downside. The upcoming American session will bring the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended February 2 and December Wholesale Inventories. Additionally, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires, and speculative interest will pay close attention to their comments in search of fresh clues. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair seems poised to extend its decline. The daily chart shows it met sellers around a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the 20 SMA maintains its firmly bearish slope above it. Also, the pair flirted with the weekly high and was unable to extend its rally, suggesting unconvinced buyers. Finally, technical indicators turned lower within negative levels, in line with resurgent selling interest. For the near term, the 4-hour chart supports the bearish case. Technical indicators rotated sharply lower, retaining their bearish slopes. Particularly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator anticipates further slides, as it currently stands at 41 without signs of bearish exhaustion. At the same time, EUR/USD is currently extending its slide below the 20 SMA, which formerly offered support. A steeper decline could be expected once the pair slides below 1.0720.
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-forecast-sellers-aligned-ahead-of-10800-202402081254
EUR/USD remains capped near 100-day SMA amid emergence of USD dip-buying
==========
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains back closer to the 1.0800 mark, a fresh weekly high, and turns neutral during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Expectations for an interest rate cut at the start of the second quarter have been growing stronger, undermining the Euro. The USD Index (DXY) has stalled its retracement slide from the highest level since November 14 amid the Federal Reserve's less dovish outlook. The markets are still pricing in five rate cuts over the course of the seven remaining FOMC policy meetings this year. Traders now look to the release of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, which, along with scheduled speeches by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, might provide some impetus. The market focus remains glued to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due next week.
#Eur/usd #UsdDip-buying #InterestRateCut #UsdIndex #FederalReserve #FomcPolicyMeetings #UsWeeklyInitialJoblessClaims #RichmondFedPresidentThomasBarkin #UsConsumerInflation
USD/JPY Outlook: Bulls look to seize near-term control, move beyond 148.80 hurdle awaited
==========
The USD/JPY pair is gaining positive traction for the second successive day, with bulls looking to move beyond the 148.80 resistance level. The momentum is supported by the dovish remarks from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the underlying bullish sentiment in global equity markets. Investors believe that wage growth in Japan may outpace that of 2023, leading to the exit of the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the USD's lackluster performance and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate cut path may cap any significant appreciation in the USD/JPY pair. Traders are awaiting the release of US economic data and speeches by central bank officials for further direction.
#Usd/jpy #Forex #BankOfJapan #EquityMarkets #WageGrowth #FederalReserve
Asian stocks track Wall Street higher, Japan’s Nikkei leads gains
==========
Asian stocks are tracking Wall Street higher, with Japan's Nikkei leading the gains. Most Asian stocks are edging higher following the S&P 500 closing at a record high. China's Shanghai is up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.08%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.26%, South Korea's Kospi is up 0.16%, India's NIFTY 50 is down 0.86%, and Japan's Nikkei is up 1.91%. Japan's December current account balance was lower than expected, with a surplus of 744.3 billion yen compared to the expected surplus of 1.02 trillion yen. In China, policymakers plan to bolster markets ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The Chinese economy is facing deflationary pressures, and officials are under pressure to take more measures to boost the economy. In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) also left its benchmark interest rate steady. Mainland Chinese stock markets will be closed on Friday for the Lunar New Year and will reopen on Monday.
#AsianStocks #WallStreet #Japan'sNikkei #ChineseStimulusMeasures