A very good article 🇩🇪 on the current situation in #Mali, and the Sahel region.

I'm just posting this because the last part of this veeeery long article coincidentally confirms one of my recent comments about the predominantly tribal organisations of African societies, the fragility of governments and their inability to assert their authority on their whole territories, primarily because of the inadequate borders drawn in Berlin in 1884. This is currently being exploited by rebel armies, for example, Burkina Faso has lost 40% of its territory to islamists rebels! Without the French, and now the Wagner army, the regime's days would be numbered. We've seen this before in former Zaire with Kabila, and there's a similar situation in Cameroon with Boko Haram in the North, and anglophone secessionists in the South, but there, the government receives massive military aid from the US, Israel, and France, though this could change if the recent Gabon scenario repeats itself in Cameroon (unlikely)...

Concerning Mali, a war lead by Nigeria and the ECOWAS to reinstate their now former "democratically elected" president would only have catastrophic consequences, as several neighbouring countries have announced their intention to join and fight on Mali's side. This would have the necessary ingredients for a WW scenario. Like in 1917, a "banal" incident could potentially lead to a WW. Also, a war will surely create the same conditions as after the destabilisation of Libya by the US/Obama and France/Sarkozy, the ensuing instability in the region, and the migrant crisis that plunged Europe into chaos.

No one wants another "Wir schaffen das!" episode.