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信念的重量
吉姆·柯林斯在探寻卓越企业特质时，访问了一位曾在越战中被俘却最终生还的美军军人。
吉姆问他：“在那样的绝境中，您是如何熬过来的？”军人的回答有些意外：“我坚信自己可以活着出去。我有这个信念。”
吉姆追问：“那为什么其他人没能挺过来呢？”军人平静地说：“他们都是乐观主义者。”
吉姆不解，认为这与军人自己坚信能活下来的说法矛盾。军人解释道：那些乐观主义者，他们的希望是脆弱且有条件的。他们天天盼望着外部的变化能拯救自己，比如：“也许今年圣诞节前，我就能回家了！”圣诞节过去了，希望落空。他们又将希望寄托到下一个时间点：“复活节前，我一定能出去！”
希望一次次燃起，又一次次被冰冷的现实浇灭。在这种反复的盼望与失望的循环中，他们的精神被彻底摧毁，最终陷入绝望而没能坚持下去。
而他自己的信念，不是对某个特定日期、某个外部事件的乐观预期，而是一种内在的、不动摇的确定性：无论何时、无论环境如何恶劣，我 自己最终会活着出去。这种信念，像一根无形的脊梁，支撑他在没有尽头的苦难中站立。
这个关于信念与乐观的生死攸关的故事，对我们理解比特币世界的HODLER有着深刻的启示。比特币，对于许多人而言，是一场充满不确定性、剧烈波动甚至被视为“囚笼”或“地狱”的投资旅程。在这趟旅程中，同样充斥着大量的“乐观主义者”。
他们可能是那些因为短期市场上涨而情绪高涨，设定“下个月翻倍”、“年底到XX万美元”等具体价格目标的人。他们的乐观，就像战俘对圣诞节、复活节的期盼一样，是基于外部的、易变的短期市场走势和新闻事件。
他们希望通过快速的价格上涨来“逃离”当前的成本区或实现财富自由。然而，当市场迎来不可避免的回调，当设定的短期价格目标未能实现，当所谓的“利好”没有立即带来预期效果时，这些短期乐观者的希望就会迅速破灭。一次次的希望落空，带来的是巨大的失望和恐惧。
最终，许多人在市场低谷时，像那些在反复失望中绝望的战俘一样，选择割肉离场，彻底退出了这场数字货币的长征。他们被自己脆弱的短期乐观所“杀死”。而真正的HODLER更像是那位幸存的战俘。他们或许不总是情绪激昂，不一定设定具体的短期价格目标，但他们拥有的是对比特币的核心价值——去中心化、抗审查性、有限稀缺性以及其作为数字黄金的长期潜力——的坚定信念。
他们的HODL，正是这种信念最直接的体现。在市场剧烈下跌，人人恐慌抛售时，HODLER能够顶住压力，不动如山，甚至逆势买入。这并非因为他们乐观地认为“明天就会涨回去”，而是因为他们坚信比特币的长期价值不受短期的价格波动影响，当前的低谷只是通往未来目标的必经之路。他们的信念，像战俘的内在确定性一样，不依赖于外部环境的快速改善，而是根植于对事物本质的深刻认知。
从越战战俘的故事中，我们学到了生存的智慧：在漫长而艰难的旅程中，脆弱的短期乐观是致命的毒药，只有基于深刻理解的坚定信念，才能支撑我们穿越黑暗，抵达光明。在比特币的长征中，最终能够分享其巨大价值的，不是那些寄希望于快速暴富的乐观者，而是那些拥有对长期价值不动摇的信念，并将其化为坚韧不拔的HODL信念者。这，才是穿越牛熊、行稳致远的关键所在。 知道
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[0904.1556] The Algebra of Grand Unified Theories
https://arxiv.org/abs/0904.1556
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particle_physics_and_representation_theory
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https://arxiv.org/abs/0904.1556
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Sehr spannendes Gespräch, danke euch.
https://fountain.fm/episode/KIbvqZ9AqZb3MjBan0UE
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