DCA Strategy (hourly, daily, weekly)

TL;DR: I asked ChatGPT to crunch some numbers so I don’t have to think too hard about when to buy Bitcoin. Turns out: it kinda matters – but not that much. Weekly DCA is a gamble, daily is chill, hourly is overkill (unless you're into spreadsheets and order spam).

I came across a dataset going back to 2017 with hourly OHLC prices from Binance (UTC-based, it seems). I’m no data analyst (and barely use Python), so I let my friend ChatGPT do most of the heavy lifting while I nodded approvingly.

Curious to see how much of a difference timing actually makes, I ran some comparisons between hourly, daily (at different times), and weekly DCA strategies (on various days and times).

Fees weren’t included – so if you're using a platform that charges per order, hourly DCA might nibble away at your sats faster than you think.

The results?

In the worst case, the deviation between the best and worst strategy is around 4%.

Surprisingly, both the top performer and the worst performer turned out to be weekly strategies.

If you want to reduce that variance, daily DCA seems like a solid middle ground.

Hourly DCA? Only moderately useful. Even if you consistently hit the worst time of day for your daily DCA order, the deviation is still only around 0.3–0.4% (depending on the time range you’re looking at). But hey – that’s just 30 orders a month instead of 720, which might matter if you’re tracking things for tax purposes.

You could turn this into a science project (and add stuff like volatility, Sharpe ratio, etc.) – or just go with your gut and buy whenever your coffee kicks in and Bitcoin crosses your mind.

I did this little experiment back in late December and haven’t touched it since.

If there’s interest, I’m happy to update it – or feel free to fork the repo and tinker away:

GOOD MORNING!

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3 more days till the next Upendo Block Party. 🎉

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Ein kleiner Text für meine Familie:

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Weil das zugrunde liegende Protokoll offen ist, kann jeder eigene Apps darauf aufbauen. Der Buzzbot zum Beispiel ermöglicht es, für Posts kleine Prämien zu vergeben – und belohnt damit echte Interaktion aus der Community. So lassen sich Inhalte gezielt anschieben, ohne Werbung zu schalten oder Algorithmen zu bespielen. Reichweite entsteht durch Beteiligung – nicht durch Bezahlung.

Das Beste: Du brauchst nur einen einzigen Login. Damit kannst du dich bei beliebigen Nostr-Apps anmelden und überall deine Kontakte, deine Inhalte und deinen Ruf mitnehmen – wenn du willst.

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Stell dir vor, du bekommst Empfehlungen, Meinungen oder Reviews – nicht anonym oder gekauft, sondern von Menschen, denen du vertraust. Von deinen Kontakten, nicht von Algorithmen. Das gilt für alles: Inhalte, Orte, Produkte, Nachrichten. Relevanz entsteht aus echten Beziehungen – nicht aus Werbeprofilen.

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Let's try this

Touted as a bitcoin book, the manuscript only mentions the word once throughout. While the interpretation of its reference remains open to debate, the half-cocked comment, “see how that worked out”, and the author’s own admission, indicate it was meant to be dismissive.

Despite this the novel is a kaleidoscope of sound money spawned literary themes complete with evident btc-vocab like “Citadel”. The book tackles the devolution of The United States in a rapidly-inflating economy, the “New IMF” releasing a world wide currency called the “Bancor” backed by gold, copper, and various amounts of consumable commodities (an idea floated by John Nash in his essay, “Ideal Money”, as well as many other Austrian economists), and a general real-world palpability to a society on the decline as framed up though the intergenerational experience of The Mandible Family.

From Great Grand Dad (GGD) on down through young Willing, the chemistry of the characters and the silent turned not so silent role a huge family fortune on the decline plays as a backdrop to all that occurs is compelling, authentic, and believable. Shriver tackles unique characters like a linebacker, and acerbic wit, economic prowess, and a love of the threads that tie a family across time and place are strident throughout.

The book rests on its dialogue, indeed 85% of the book is strictly conversations happening in a particular location or another. The “backdrop” of the dystopic future is more of an afterthought to the foreground of the characters. The plot - which I’m not going to spoil - progresses smoothly and naturally, up until the final section of the book, where an abrupt jump forward in years felt like a truncated and not fully cooked Act III. The novels apotheosis is the family crawling out of NYC pushing a bicycle stocked with the silver cutlery handed down from many generations prior - the vestige of The Mandible Family Fortune - on their way to Uncle Jared’s Citadel (a farm upstate).

As dystopic sci-fi is meant to do, there is some very reasonable forecasting. For starters, predicting the widespread absence of toilet paper prior to The Covid Era must been seen as not only literary foresight but literal forecasting. Reading a novel published in 2016 that discussed swapping roles of toilet paper for entire dinners, and romanticizing of how it might feel to reach up onto a shelf and grab a “cushy 9 pack of squishy TP” has an eerie sense of omniscience from a retrolooking 2025.

Moreover, the literary conceit of a sovereign state within the contiguous United States being located in Nevada also jives with something like what a Texas might still become. Terms like “The Other 49” became common expression in this new self-declared sovereign territory with low taxation and no subsidies.

Finally, the “chipped up” reality of everyone having a piece of tech stuck into their spinal cord at the base of their neck (so it couldn’t be dug out) is just too on the nose for something that could be incoming. All transactions digital, cash aboloshed, auto and instant taxation. The plausibility of such an outcome was well if not swiftly established by the author with the flick of a logical pen. It’s simply Google Maps, plus our Credit Card statements, on auto transmit to the new IRS every single time we transact. Not too big of a leap considering.

On par with other books that don’t really have anything to do with bitcoin but somehow map it’s future rather accurately, e.g., Jeff Booth’s The Price of Tomorrow, Nassim Talib’s Anti-Fragile, or David Rogers Webb’s The Great Taking, this book accomplishes a similar reality but does so in the form of something far stickier than books about economics, it does so with a story.

Willing is by far my favorite character and Shriver’s sense of humor runs through his emotionless drawl. There was a hue of The Glass Family, and young Zooey amidst these pages.

since you asked