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Good morning ๐ŸŒž๐ŸŒ„ Nostr and friends. I hope everyone has a great Sunday ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ๐Ÿ˜Š.

Good morning Calle. I hope you have a wonderful day today.

Replying to Avatar Ava

So, looking at raw numbers with 50,000 devices:

Your individual odds = 1 in 50,000

Waiting time = 75-80 days

So you're looking at:

โ€ข A 0.002% chance of mining a block

โ€ข Waiting ~2.5 months for that tiny chance

With 1 million devices:

Your individual odds = 1 in 1,000,000

Waiting time = 3-5 days

That's:

โ€ข A 0.0001% chance of mining a block

โ€ข Every 3-5 days, someone in that million gets lucky

โ€ข But it's probably not you

However, these statistics are oversimplified. Here's how Bitcoin mining actually works:

Your real chance of mining a block = (Your hashrate / Total network hashrate)

For perspective:

โ€ข With 1 TH/s of mining power, odds are roughly 1 in 249,694,649 per block

โ€ข A new block is mined every ~10 minutes

โ€ข But it's a continuous probability game, not a scheduled event

When more devices join the network:

1. The total network hashrate increases

2. Your individual device's hashrate stays the same

3. Therefore, your relative share (and odds) decrease

So when they say 'a device will mine a block every X days,' it's misleadingโ€”it's a network-wide statistic, like saying 'someone will win the lottery every drawing.' It doesn't improve your individual device's chances; more competition actually makes your odds worse.

This is why solo mining has largely been replaced by industrial mining operationsโ€”the odds for individual miners have become increasingly unfavorable as the network has grown.

I don't gamble, and I don't play the lottery. These devices are fun and educational, but they are expensive lottery tickets with worse odds.

Hmmm ๐Ÿค” interesting numbers

Wow that's a bit bloody, just throwing it out there

Oh no I'm so sorry to hear this. Is everything ok ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ? I hope you have a better day today ๐Ÿ’œ๐Ÿงก.

I'm doing well thank you ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿผ. Just worried about you. You're a great friend and I don't like to see you sad.

How are you feeling about it? Do you like it here ?