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curt finch
5bbb392c31d8df7eea9c15f88a19832b397d5d480d141ef143f98945f545001d
on alby

if you have a nuclear weapon and you use it do you think it will help you win in a limited engagement between two Nations that are close by each other?

the calculus everybody has made for 70 years that no it won't help it'll make it worse and that is why they have not been used

a crazy person could do it

North Korea seems crazy

Iran is not crazy and nor is Russia and neither is Israel. Pakistan and India are definitely not crazy

Russia's so incompetent they probably lost the keys

it doesn't really matter who is president very much since they have very little power, especially domestically

Obama couldn't close Guantanamo

Trump couldn't get his little wall built in 4 years of whining

maybe go to a coffee shop and talk to people who are not electronic

travel, health, playing with toddlers, riding my bike, swimming at Barton springs, eating at Casa de luz, spending more time in San Miguel de Allende

mostly just more travel

and more frequent testing to find old people diseases very early

stop being so butt hurt

nobody knew what to do so they printed bazillions of dollars and a lot of other dumb s***

did kamala say anything one way or the other last night about #Bitcoin?

I apologize for my inability to pay attention to politicians for either side

fuck Russia, says All of its neighbors

credit to geopolitical futures

humans have been around for a million years

and 20,000 years ago you lived in a 300 person tribe

the other tribes were essentially not human to you and you killed them willy-nilly

the world wars industrialized it

nuclear weapons put a lid on it

but the fire is still burning

in order to kill your fellow you have to objectify him, call him a cockroach for example

this is not new

the words of Jesus were not in vain and they have changed the world just not enough and slowly

I've only ever been to conferences for stuff that I don't care about but had to be there for business reasons

so maybe I'll join you

#Bitcoin since Valentine's Day

a buy order in at $53333

partly because it's easy to type and I am lazy

I don't think I have ever heard a better answer to anything in my entire life

how do you filter just generally so that the information you're getting is more likely to be informative

that includes even people just talking to you

where can I find news specific to advances in #Bitcoin that move the Ball forward

the ETFs count

but I also mean fedimint, lightning etc

things that change the world?

I'm sick of bombastic YouTube 'smash that like button' guys who just talk about how it's going to go to a trillion dollars a coin

looking for something like coindesk but it's progress desk or something

I've been meaning to listen to one of his shows for many years but isn't he like a wrestler or something?

you know the Kardashians are also popular

I think that implies a lot more intent than is really there

systems self-reinforce according to baked in rules that are offer success to the successful even in the plant kingdom

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

The complicated aspect about the Social Security system in the United States is that it was falsely marketed.

It's called an "entitlement" because people pay into it and are supposed to get it back like a pension, regardless of whether they are rich or poor when they retire. And so the Baby Boomer generation views any cuts to their social security as a rugpull, basically. It's not insurance or charity; it's an entitlement.

However, although it was marketed as like an entitlement/pension, that's not how the math worked out in practice. And it's because population growth is slowing. It was based on ponzi math, assuming that every generation will be bigger than the one that came before it. But the Baby Boomer generation was huge.

In addition, when Social Security was created, the retirement age was set near the average life expectancy. Many people would not live long enough to collect it, and most would collect it for a handful of years. Only a small minority of outliers would work for like 40 years and then live off social security for like 20+ years. But then over the decades, life expectancy increased by like 15 years, so the default assumption is indeed that someone can work for 40 years and then have 20+ years of retirement, even though the amount they pay into it doesn't really mathematically cover that. It's not designed for that en masse.

And so Baby Boomers had like a 3.5 worker-to-retiree ratio to support in their peak earnings years, while Millennials will have more like a 2.5 worker-to-retiree ratio or less to deal with. Which means they get a worse deal. Many Millennials don't even think they'll get it at all, despite paying into it.

That breaks up the social contract and sets up inter-generational political conflict. "Fourth Turning" stuff.

It's a big reason why "defined benefit" plans are inherently unstable; they rely on being able to predict the future.

And it's also a big reason why, when speaking about deficits, nothing stops this train.

they will just print more pieces of paper and then they'll hand them to the old people

old people vote

30 years ago I thought it was insolving and I really didn't think I was ever going to get any but now I'm 60 I think I might get a little bit

they will means test it. tax it .AMT it

it won't be enough

eventually it will fail somehow probably through too much inflation

who is selling now?

the under 3 months crowd

mostly

#primal is failing to post my graph unfortunately

they'll just print more