**Response to @balajis:**
This article adds economics to a Lanchester-style model. Good takehome: raw budget size is not the only factor.
"These equations...can also be used to "back out" how successful a weapon would need to be against its counte…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627900124793024513#m
**Response to @balajis:**
"Since it was first proposed during World War I, the Lanchester Combat Model... in various forms has been used to address quantitatively the competition between opposing forces."
[1]: maa.org/book/export/html/115…
[2]: t…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627898736289673217#m
Interesting analysis that reminds me of Lanchester's laws.
If you have two militaries that are trying to economically attrit each other, you can't just compare raw budgets. You also need to account for replenishment costs in PPP terms, counterweap…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627896597626621953#m
Why might LLMs have weird personalities?
They're trained on social media posters, like Reddit, Wikipedia, and Twitter users. And these folks are cognitively...atypical.
Put another way, the strong and silent type isn’t part of AI training data.
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627744768062066724#m
**RT @sidhant:**
India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) of India and Singapore's PayNow digital payments systems to be linked. Event to be witnessed by Indian, Singapore PMs.
https://nitter.moomoo.me/sidhant/status/1627642074953814016#m
**Response to @balajis:**
US regulators are just as corrupt as the military industrial complex.
The SEC hungers for financial crises like Raytheon hungers for wars. That’s their meal ticket, that’s when careers are made.
Moreover, even when s…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627606586964447233#m
After failing to prevent the financial crisis or dotcom crash, was the SEC disbanded?
No, their budget was increased. It’s flat during good times and rises in crisis. More failure, more funding!
nitter.moomoo.me/jespow/status/1627415364111040513#…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627605868828332032#m
**Response to @balajis:**
Being too mimetic of course can make one an NPC. But being reflexively contrarian is itself a form of mimesis. So is language acquisition itself!
Trivial, but — the optimal amount of mimesis on anything is somewhere bet…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627509040686440449#m
AI is mimetic
That’s what supervised learning is
Shows that “avoid mimesis” is not always the right strategy
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627507834329108480#m
**Response to @balajis:**
Btw, I’m not even saying all the criticism is bad or even wrong.
Criticism of actually existing markets can sometimes reveal market opportunities.
Criticism of actually existing politics can sometimes reveal political …
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627370872251240448#m
**Response to @balajis:**
When comparing civilizations past, present, and future one might talk about architectural aesthetics or sheer population size.
But aesthetics have a degree of arbitrariness, and even a locust swarm is numerous.
Math and …
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627351831092535297#m
**Response to @balajis:**
The out-of-sample attack…
“the tactic exploited by Pelrine is rarely used, meaning the AI systems had not been trained on enough similar games to realise they were vulnerable, said Gleave.” ft.com/content/175e5314-a…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627295029239898112#m
Reminds me of work on adversarial images.
Is this an adversarial strategy, where a human/computer combo finds a strategy that beats another computer — but not a human?
nitter.moomoo.me/moreisdifferent/status/1626968428601909249#m
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627294763098718212#m
**Response to @balajis:**
The reason wokes don't like to be called wokes is because they want to be naming you rather than vice versa
You are an x-ist, y-ist, and z-ist.
But they are just good people.
This works. When the immune system can't tag …
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627278590529400837#m
**Response to @balajis:**
I find some of these more or less plausible; one can add other X-risk scenarios.
One observation is that in some cases, like the COVID lab leak theory, those working on X-risk also ended up actually creating what they war…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627038539069403142#m
The ABCDs of catastrophe
AI: AGI kills us
Bitcoin: Hyperinflation bankrupts us
Climate: Warming ruins us
Democracy: Authoritarians conquer us
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1627037705287897091#m
**Response to @balajis:**
To be fair, the author does hedge.
"So are chatbots doomed to fail? Not at all. But it does suggest that it’s still very early days for chatbots..."
But even five years later they were still at the trough of the hype c…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1626968429747146754#m
**Response to @balajis:**
Within the Abrahamic tradition, there is Protestant-vs-Catholic.
Does each corporation (a person!) get to invent a superintelligence and commune with it as it sees fit, in a Protestantish way?
Or will there be a push for…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1626940806912446464#m
**Response to @balajis:**
To generalize, the Abrahamic concept of AGI is a personal relationship with one new god. Like Protestantism.
The Sinic version takes that god and fuses it with a centralized state.
The Dharmic version is a multiplicity o…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1626940088285552640#m
**Response to @balajis:**
Discussed in v1 of the book, to be expanded in v2. thenetworkstate.com/god-stat…
https://nitter.moomoo.me/balajis/status/1626936616429453313#m