One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

The future can be incredible. The potential is there. It’s going to be a fight. It won’t be easy. But it’s necessary.

Ignore the doomers and the gloomers. Make the world a better place, each and every day.

At some point she publicly claims having watched non-existent "rape videos" of Palestinians during October 7 attack.

But then,

She and UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron wrote a joint article published in The Sunday Times on 17 December 2023 calling for actions which would "pav[e] the way to a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza".

You crazy mf. Was it all this? You didn't wanted ANY ceasefire, you wanted "your ceasefire".

Baerbock expressed support for Israel and its right to self-defense during the 2023 Israel–Hamas war. On 23 October 2023, she blocked a declaration by EU ministers calling for "an immediate humanitarian cease-fire" to help civilians in the Gaza Strip.

Read carefully, SHE FUCKING BLOCKS HUMANITARIAN CEASE-FIRE.

At least 10,000 children dead more wounded since her amazing policy here.

But she was really sorry about the children in Afghanistan.

Somehow this makes sense in her mind, which I will never understand.

Baerbock opposed the decision of the Biden administration to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine.

Back to sanity for a split second.

In September 2023, Baerbock accused Azerbaijan of breaking its promise not to resort to military action in Armenian-held Nagorno-Karabakh and called on it to halt the offensive and return to negotiations.

Again shining star of geopolitics.

In May 2023, she visited Saudi Arabia and praised Saudi efforts to find a solution to the wars in Yemen and Sudan.

At this point, its clear that we are not living in the same reality with her.

Praising Saudi efforts for peace ✌️.

She is an absolute #berliner even though she is not from #berlin.

In May 2023, she urged China to take a clear stance on the Russo-Ukrainian War, saying "neutrality means taking the side of the aggressor."

In September 2023, she named the Chinese President Xi Jinping "a dictator" next to Vladimir Putin, but that also followed the U.S. president referring to the Chinese President a dictator on June.

She is a golden mix of ignorance and superiority complex.

"In March 2023, on a visit to Baghdad, Baerbock called on Iran to cease its missile attacks on Iraqi territory."

I have absutely no idea what she was talking about here, but her display of geopolitics knowledge until now just makes me skip even trying to figure out what she is talking about.

Let's continue.

In a keynote speech to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on 24 January, she said in English "We are fighting a war against Russia, not against each other"

Somehow she enters a war with Russia 🇷🇺 without anyone else noticing.

She warned that Turkey's threat to launch a new offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria will only help the Islamic State jihadists.

Then shares her amazing wisdom without understanding "who really ended DAES".

In July 2022, she rejected Turkey's territorial claims to Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, stating that "Lesbos, Chios, Rhodes and many others are Greek territories and nobody has the right to question them."

She somehow reaches to Turkey 🇹🇷 and decides that the islands I marked on the map are Greek 🇬🇷 islands and this is unquestionable.

Fair.

April 2022, she hosted a donor conference during which European and international governments agreed to extend 659.5 million euros ($718.6 million) in aid to Moldova, which hosted more than 100,000 refugees from Ukraine at the time.

She finds some other good refugees and helps them. Good.

For a short time period she really becomes the voice of reason in the entire mess created by US and UK.

In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, she argued against blocking Russian access to SWIFT.

In January 2022, Baerbock refused to supply German weapons to Ukraine amid rising tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border, while the NATO allies including the United States opted to send arms in support of Ukraine.

Suddenly she wakes up and understands the neo-con ideology maybe not so good?

She said, "We cannot allow hundreds of thousands of children to die because we don't want to take action." She also promised to speed up the evacuation of more than 15,000 vulnerable Afghans, including staff who worked for Germany and their family members.

So suddenly she becomes pro-immigration, due to, drumroll please, "children" ofc.

The refugess from Belarus had no children ofc, they were not the right kind of refugess.

On 23 December 2021, Baerbock warned that Afghanistan is "heading into the worst humanitarian catastrophe of our time", with major economic sectors collapsing and more than 24 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Which didn't happen and since neo-con bombings of Afghanistan 🇦🇫 stopped, we did see the end of one of the worst humanitarian catastrophe of our time.

Baerbock harbors strong Atlanticist(read imperialist neo-con) views and is assumed to follow a foreign policy in coherent with the one pursued by the U.S. President Joe Biden.

Baerbock backed Poland's efforts to stop the flow of migrants seeking entry in EU territories from Belarus.

During this time, it was discovered that Baerbock committed plagiarism in a book she authored having copy-pasted 29 sentences altogether from other works.

Another wrongdoing unearthed was that she published false information about her professional background in her CV. She incorrectly claimed that she was a member of German Marshall Fund and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees along with many other minor institutions, which she had no formal ties to.

So she represents extremely high morals with amazing lying capabilities. Keep the amazing lying capacity in mind, it will become relevant many times again.

She lost the constituency to Scholz by over 15,000 votes, but was nonetheless elected to the Bundestag through the Green list in Brandenburg. She was essentially one step away from replacing Olaf Scholz, which means Germany 🇩🇪 had no good options at that point.