I honestly won't be surprised if #Bitcoin reaches 250k-500k within the first 12 months following #BTC Spot ETF approval.
#Bitcoin's Potential Valuation Based on "Global Wealth" using the "multiplier effect"
Assumptions,
1. Global wealth: $400 trillion
2. Maximum number of Bitcoins: 21 million
3. Percentage of Bitcoins lost: 12%
4. Multiplier effect: 2x (is this a lot or conservative?)
Calculations:
Available #Bitcoin,
To calculate the number of available Bitcoin, we consider the 12% loss rate.
Available Bitcoins = 21 million x 0.88 = 18.48 million Bitcoins
Captured Global Wealth,
The next step is to calculate the amount of global wealth that could potentially be captured by Bitcoin, under various scenarios.
Without Multiplier
For instance, if Bitcoin captures 5% of global wealth:
Captured Global Wealth without Multiplier = $400 trillion x 0.05 = $20 trillion
With Multiplier
The multiplier effect can then be applied to this amount:
Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = $20 trillion x 2 = $40 trillion
Value of One #Bitcoin
The value of a single Bitcoin can be estimated using the following formula:
Value of One Bitcoin = Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier / Available Bitcoins
Therefore, with the multiplier, if #Bitcoin were to capture:
A conservative 5% of Global Wealth,
One Bitcoin would be approximately = $40 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoins = $2,167,567
A reasonable 10% of Global Wealth
Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = ($400 trillion x 0.10) x 2 = $80 trillion
One Bitcoin would be approximately = $80 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoin = $4,335,135
An outrageous 20% of Global Wealth
Captured Global Wealth with Multiplier = ($400 trillion x 0.20) x 2 = $160 trillion
One Bitcoin would be approximately = $160 trillion / 18.48 million Bitcoins = $8,670,270
This is all speculative and intended solely to understand the multiplier effect.
Most importantly, what is your opinion? could we see similar numbers within a couple of decades?
I firmly believe that approving multiple #Bitcoin ETFs in unison has the potential to catalyze a surge in market value that could reach into the trillions of dollars,
and,
It appears that various spot #Bitcoin ETFs are on track for simultaneous rollouts, a move that is sure to induce significant price volatility.
Each of these ETFs will attract investments and will actively market themselves to garner as much interest and capital as possible.
Interestingly,
These institutions will serve as educational hubs for the wider public, likely catalyzed by a substantial uptick in price,
The "god candle" is coming,
This phenomenon will undoubtedly accelerate adoption, inspire additional research, and seize the attention of a diverse audience.
The simultaneous launch of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs is poised to fundamentally transform and mature the #Bitcoin landscape.
How many inflows do you think will happen in the first year?
2nd year?
5 year?
No empire is safe from technological disruption (#Bitcoin)
We have 5,000 years of written records showing that people usually fail to recognize the strategic importance of new technologies.
Not the exception.
Time and time again,
Empires rise and fall because they keep allowing themselves to be surprised by the emergence of game-changing technologies.
Even more absurdly,
The people in charge of these empires keep acting like they have an option to refuse or ignore new technologies after they emerge,
1. As if the cat can be put back in the box.
2. As if they live in an isolated bubble completely separated from the rest of the world.
3. As if their empire is the only empire which gets to decide how they’re going to use this technology.
Why do rulers keep allowing their empires to be disrupted by new technologies?
Why do empires keep forfeiting important technological leads over to their adversaries?
There are several explanations.
1. This thought experiment highlights a national strategic security dilemma that US faces right now.
2. If a new technology aka #Bitcoin does have vital national strategic security implication.
3. This would imply that barriers slowing society down from reaching consensus about the strategic importance of that technology would represent a national strategic security hazard.
The point is that no empire is safe from technological disruption, you must prepare individually.
USA🇺🇸 should sit down and study #Bitcoin as a matter of national security...
#Bitcoin has survived its own most elite developers rage-quitting and denouncing the system.
It has weathered a majority of miners proposing game-breaking changes.
It has overcome an attempted corporate takeover.
It can certainly withstand a few asset managers attempting to allocate trillions upon trillions of dollars.
Bitcoin exists as a direct response to centralized systems such as PayPal.
The energy cost of PoW (Proof of Work) is what liberates us from the tyranny of the centralized monetary and payment systems that some hold dear.
Countries don't ban Bitcoin; they simply exclude themselves from the Bitcoin network.
The more I learn about #Bitcoin, the more I respect gold.
Conversely, the more I understand gold, the more I come to appreciate #Bitcoin.
So, it seems that digital bearer assets, which can't be seized or frozen, are indeed quite important, doesn't it? 🤔
If you are here from X, let me know.
like so I can follow you here.
Right now,
The entire world is essentially a giant neon sign that reads,
"BUY #BITCOIN"
How incredibly refreshing it is that the #Bitcoin protocol doesn't care at all about the price that the outside world assigns to #BTC
1. No measures are being implemented.
2. No rescue packages are forthcoming.
3. It simply adheres to the protocol, producing one block at a time.
4. Block after block after block like a psychopath and sociopath combined.
We can remain sane, healthy, and grounded for longer than the outside world can resist the inevitable rise of Bitcoin.
I don't usually make absolute predictions,
but this one is too obvious not to mention:
We will never see #Bitcoin valued below $10,000 again.
#BTC exists only because the 2008 crisis pissed off so many people that someone, or a group of someones (Satoshi), went rogue and built an entire monetary system that could not be tampered with.
Twenty One #Bitcoin interconnected topics:
1. Mathematics
2. Finance
3. Politics
4. Economics
5. Game Theory
6. Energy
7. Physics
8. Information Technology
9. Cybersecurity
10. Social Dynamics
11. Monetary Policy
12. Open-source Development
13. Behavioral
14. Law
15. Network Theory
16. Cryptography
17. National Security
18. Blockchain Technology
19. Decentralization
20. Peer-to-Peer Systems
21. True digital Property
What would you add? 🤔
The minute this happens, it legitimizes #Bitcoin, which they will never do, as it undermines every Keynesian economic model.
1. Decentralization
- Both Austrian economics and #Bitcoin emphasize the power and efficiency of decentralized systems.
- Central planning is inefficient because it cannot process all individual knowledge and preferences.
-#Bitcoin eliminates the need for a central authority, reducing mismanagement or corruption.
2. Sound Money
- Austrian economics emphasizes the importance of sound money for economic stability.
- #Bitcoin, with its capped supply and predictable issuance rate, acts as digital sound money, protecting against inflationary tendencies in Keynesian models.
3. Individual Sovereignty
- Austrian economics stresses the importance of individual choice and voluntary exchange.
-#Bitcoin empowers individuals to take control of their finances without relying on third-party intermediaries.
4. Price Discovery
- Austrian economists argue that market-set prices are optimal and should not be manipulated by external actors like governments.
-#Bitcoin markets are an example of extreme price discovery, free from government intervention.
5. Low Time Preference
- Austrian economics encourages saving and long-term planning, contrasting with the immediate consumption fostered by Keynesian economics.
-Bitcoin, as digital gold, encourages saving due to its deflationary nature.
6. Transparency and Trust
- Austrian economics critiques the inefficiencies and lack of transparency in centrally planned economies.
-#Bitcoin’s transparent ledger and open-source nature provide a level of openness and trust not found in traditional financial systems.
7. Global and Non-political
- Austrian economics leans towards free markets and globalization, aligning with #Bitcoin, which operates globally and transcends political boundaries.
Satoshi Nakamoto should win the Nobel Prize.
Key Insights about the Inevitable Paradigm shift (#BTC edition)
1. Being unbanked doesn't mean being unbankable.
#Bitcoin is your way in.
2. The best position for #Bitcoin is one that disrupts and one that collaborates.
3. There's not a single flaw in the #Bitcoin blockchain when it comes to financial transparency.
4. Decentralization is the rarest asset in the financial world.
5. HODLing for the sake of HODLing can backfire.
6. Smart contracts are the quickest way to make financial systems more efficient.
(New development in #BTC, read the post from a couple days ago)
7. #Bitcoin skeptics often don't understand decentralization.
8. Controversy around #Bitcoin is its strongest growth catalyst.
9. Don't know if it's proven, but #Bitcoin sure feels like the future of finance.
10. Double down on educating people about its potential for financial inclusion.
11. Triple down on topics that challenge traditional banking systems.
12. Quadruple down on user-friendly #Bitcoin education content.
13. Quintuple down on building a community around responsible #Bitcoin usage.
14. #Bitcoin strategy is all game theory.
It's a global financial chess game.
15. Making your first transaction in #Bitcoin may be confusing.
The next one is a breeze.
The conversation should be nuanced.
Before anything,
I will keep repeating this,
After studying everything that I have studied,
my conclusion about #BTC always ends the same:
#Bitcoin is the single greatest technological invention of our lifetime.
Hear me out,
It's a decentralized, peer-to-peer electronic cash system, first adopted by individuals with internet connections.
The ramifications of this innovation are hard to imagine and put in to words; it literally changes everything.
#Bitcoin is the single most resilient technology in the world.
Humans have never built a stronger, more secure computing network.
We have never seen a decentralized, open-source software project grow so big and so fast.
I believe there will only be 1 globally adopted digital store of value, and my answer is #Bitcoin.
Everything else in the crypto "industry" is attempting to be a company, an app, or a "cover" on the fiat system.
Bitcoin is the true 0-to-1 innovation.
What is your conclusion? 🤔
Every golden nugget about #Bitcoin's potential you need to understand:
1. Startling fact: Global wealth sits around $900 trillion. Put that in perspective!
2. The mystery of lost Bitcoins: Approximately 15% are gone forever. That's huge!
3. If #BTC grabs just 1% of that global wealth, guess the value?
A staggering +$500k per Bitcoin.
4. Dive deeper:
#BTC isn't just another currency.
It's global, a true owned property, and critical for financial evolution. 🌍
5. Do the math: With 15% Bitcoins MIA, we're left with 85% of the capped 21 million. That's 17.85 million Bitcoins in play.
6. Break it down: $9 trillion (1% of global wealth) divided by those 17.85 million Bitcoins gives us $504,205.
7. Now, get creative: Imagine the scene at 5%? 10%? 20%? And if it skyrockets to 50%?
8. It's not just optimism. This trajectory feels inevitable.
9. Words of wisdom: Contemplate #Bitcoin not just as an investment but as a lifeline.
Buy #BTC like it's the air you breathe.
Physics + #Bitcoin:
1. Bitcoin mining necessitates computational effort.
2. In real-world applications, #Bitcoin mining uses a substantial amount of electricity.
a. "Work" - representing the computational effort.
b. "Power" - indicating electrical consumption.
3. This imagery juxtaposes:
-The physics concept of work + Power with #Bitcoin
After a century of unsuccessful attempts, it’s clear that government-issued currency cannot be apolitical.
gold is heavily regulated by governments,
no alternative digital asset can truly escape the influence of those who market it unscrupulously.
The only genuinely neutral, free-market money on the planet is #Bitcoin.
If you own zero #BTC , you are not prepared for the next 10 years!
Always Aim for 1B (Ultimate Goal!)
10 #Bitcoin = 1B Sats.
If you don’t hold any Bitcoin it means you have completely 100% utterly trust in your government and central banks.
if you are here from twitter/𝕏 comment so I can follow you.
BitVM: Revolutionizing #Bitcoin Contracts
Have you ever imagined how we could push #Bitcoin's boundaries beyond its current capabilities?
Enter BitVM.
Let's see if its worth the time... 👇
🔷 What is BitVM?
BitVM is a powerhouse system designed to execute advanced Bitcoin contracts, all without altering Bitcoin's fundamental rules.
Let's check it out.
🔷 How does BitVM Stand Out?
Rather than running computations directly on Bitcoin, BitVM merely verifies them.
This mirrors the workings of optimistic rollups, an innovative approach in blockchain.
In essence, a participant (we'll call them the "prover") makes a claim. If they're bluffing, another (the "verifier") steps in, busts their claim, and there are consequences.
🔷 BitVM Mechanics: A Deep Dive
Large-scale programs are committed to an address named Taproot.
Although it demands hefty off-chain efforts, the footprint on Bitcoin remains minuscule.
Complex calculations take place outside the Bitcoin realm.
They're only inscribed on-chain during disputes.
🔷 The Importance of BitVM:
At present,
Bitcoin's smart contract capabilities are rudimentary.
But with BitVM, we're venturing into an era of intricate off-chain contracts and calculations.
Think game-changers like Chess or Poker and even bridging Bitcoin to "alternative" blockchains.
🔷 But... Are There Limitations?
Nothing's perfect.
BitVM predominantly functions between two participants: the prover and verifier.
Both must invest considerable effort off-chain.
🔷 Geek Talk: Tech Bits
Drawing inspiration from Optimistic Rollups and a proposal named MATT, BitVM doesn't require any tweaks to Bitcoin's core principles.
Using well-established Bitcoin notions like hashlocks and timelocks, the prover dissects the program, committing to it.
If challenged, a robust system settles disputes.
🔷 Inputs, Outputs, and Beyond
The prover displays their decisions through specific digital commitments.
While these are typically shown off-chain, disputes may require on-chain validation.
Off-chain is the way to go, saving valuable space. But disputes?
They're settled on-chain.
Excitingly, we can share vast data in advance and reveal the key when needed.
🔷 Looking Ahead
While NAND circuits have their place, they're not always the most efficient.
Bitcoin already has tools, so why not use them?
With a storage capacity of up to 4 MB, there's room for innovation.
🔷 A Brighter Tomorrow
Imagine linking channels to forge a network akin to the "Lightning Network."
With our existing system combined with off-chain solutions, the sky's the limit.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin can, in a sense, verify any program's execution because it can encode checks in large digital trees (Taptrees).
The current model focuses on two-party interactions.
It would be great to expand this in the future.
To put it simply,
#Bitcoin has a system where participants can show their choices and verify decisions.
There are some limitations, but there are also exciting possibilities for future expansions and improvements.
Now, please share your opinion. 🤔
Is it worthwhile?
Will it work?
Could it become similar to LN⚡️?
#Bitcoin reignited the thirst for knowledge that the pressures of the medical realm had once subdued.
Writing here brings me great joy, though it's hard to put into words.
At its core,
This platform allows us to sharpen our skills, dive into topics, and truly understand them.
The key is to write in a clear way that anyone can understand.
It also lets us explore what truly interests us.
For me,
This includes learning about the newest trends in AI, understanding software, discussing medical topics, and breaking down complex/simple ideas about #Bitcoin so they're easier to grasp.
I'm also passionate about subjects like nuclear energy, physics, and game theory.
#Bitcoin opened up these opportunities for me. I'm deeply grateful for it.
It pushed me to create this and deepened my love for learning.
I've never been more curious or eager to learn, and living in such exciting times is truly special.
MDBitcoin (MD₿TC) started because of the hard work and stress from being in the medical realm.
Here’s how it happened: (#BTC)
A long time ago, I was super busy in the medical world.
It felt like I was running a never-ending race, and I was really tired.
Then, a friend from work talked about Bitcoin.
At first, I didn't pay much attention because I had so much other stuff to do.
But one day, during a really busy shift, I took a short break and looked into Bitcoin.
What I found was really interesting.
Soon, every break I took was spent learning about Bitcoin.
It was fun and different from my medical world.
And here's the cool part:
The more I learned about Bitcoin, the more excited I got about being in the medical world.
It was like these two very different things helped me see each one better.
That's how I got the name "MDBitcoin".
It mixed both things I cared about.
Now, I was not only excited about being in the medical world but also about how cool #Bitcoin could be.
Some people say those who liked #Bitcoin early on were just lucky.
But I think it was more than that.
It wasn't easy believing in #Bitcoin when it had so many ups and downs.
It’s really cool to see people from all over coming together because they believe in a new way of doing things with Bitcoin.
If you ever feel lost or unsure, just remember: Life can surprise you.
Follow what you love, even if they seem very different, and try to do a little better each day.
You can do so much if you keep trying.
Never quit. Always work hard.
The Future of #Bitcoin Mining
A Geothermal Revolution
In the ever-evolving world of Bitcoin,
El Salvador blazes is blazing a new trail. 🌋
Have you heard of the Lava pool? 🤔
Lava Pool, born from the collaboration between Volcano Energy and Luxor, emerges as El Salvador's inaugural Bitcoin mining pool.
They are going to start to harness the country's geothermal power.
🔷 The Backstory
Rewind two years, and El Salvador made headlines by adopting BTC as legal tender.
Now, they're pushing the envelope further.
🔷 Mining & Revenue: A Game Changer
Volcano Energy is set to mine #Bitcoin on home turf, pledging a hefty 23% of net earnings to the government.
All under the banner of public-private synergy.
All BTC mining happens exclusively in the pool.
🔷 Luxor's Edge
With Luxor's Hashrate Forward Marketplace in play, operations get a solid backing.
Their marketplace offers cutting-edge hedging strategies, ensuring price volatility doesn't rain on the parade.
🔷 First-Mover Feats
El Salvador is no stranger to leading the pack.
Being the first to legitimize BTC in 2021, the nation now pioneers with Lava Pool, integrating BTC into their energy game.
The result? Capitalizing on a treasure trove of renewable resources.
The biggest win?
A potential revenue goldmine for El Salvador. Spearheaded by Nayib Bukele, this Central American gem aims to pump profits back into bolstering energy infrastructures, signaling a brighter economic dawn.
🔷 Who's Leading the Charge?
While Volcano Energy & Luxor hold the reins now, whispers suggest other crypto mining giants might soon hop on the bandwagon.
With a steady 23% revenue rate, it's a win-win for the nation and the quest for more geothermal energy harnessing.
🔷 Investment Galore
After securing a whopping $1 billion in investments recently, Volcano Energy earmarked $250 million for Bitcoin mining and green energy ventures.
🔷 Visionaries at the Helm
Gerson Martinez of Volcano Energy paints a dream of a cohesive energy-Bitcoin ecosystem, grounded in investor & citizen value.
On the flip side, Luxor's Ethan Vera champions geographically decentralized mining, expressing eagerness about this monumental partnership.
♦️ Wrapping Up
As BTC miners venture into diverse revenue avenues, this geothermal revolution couldn't have been more timely.
The development has come at a time when #BTC miners are exploring more ways to diversify their revenue streams amid the anticipation of digital asset volatility.
This is bullish!
What are your thoughts? 🤔
Satoshi has been trending worldwide for the past week.
This is a clear sign that people are paying attention.
Traditional fiat currency is safeguarded by military force.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is secured through mathematical principles.
Satoshi Nakamoto effectively addressed the Byzantine Generals Problem.
I will always repeat this the genius of Satoshi was to recognize the need for a system that humans couldn't tamper with.
Also, Satoshi Nakamoto brought together years of research on cryptography, along with proof of work, to create #Bitcoin - a gift to humanity that cannot be replicated, debased, or halted.
Would you truly want to explain to your children or grandchildren in the year 2040 that you declined the opportunity to save in Bitcoin in 2023?
The advent of the internet has paved the way for various innovative decentralized platforms and technologies. (#BTC)
Two such platforms are #Nostr and Silk Road. ⚖️
Nostr is designed to address the shortcomings of current social media platforms, such as ad-driven models, addiction-inducing techniques, secret algorithms, and centralized control.
The protocol's simplicity, resilience, and verifiability make it an attractive alternative for users who wish to regain control over their online social experiences.
Silk Road was an online marketplace operating on the darknet, primarily known for its role in facilitating the sale of illegal drugs, weapons, and other illicit goods and services.
Founded by Ross Ulbricht in 2011, Silk Road employed Tor, an anonymity network, and #Bitcoin, a decentralized cryptocurrency, to shield its users from identification and prosecution.
Nostr and Silk Road serve as examples of the power and potential risks associated with decentralized platforms.
While Nostr seeks to address the flaws in today's social media landscape by empowering users and fostering censorship resistance.
Silk Road showcased the darker side of decentralization and anonymity, enabling criminal activities in the process.
As the development of decentralized technologies continues, it is crucial to strike a balance between empowering individuals and maintaining ethical boundaries to ensure the responsible use of such platforms.
What are your thoughts? 👇
Can #NOSTR be used in the same way as Silk road, using specifics relays?
