reminder to compare setting fantasy football lineups to the game in Squid Game where they have to guess which glass panel to step on. Each one is only 50/50, but the chances you fall through are almost 100 percent over the course of it.
Bills just stuffing the run
Anthony Richardson out with a concussion? I knew this would be a shit day.
Metcalf out with a rib injury -- not good.
If Josh Jacobs stays healthy, he'll be RB1 or 2 -- Jimmy G's checkdown on every play
right on cue, White fights hard, scores TD
The Akers back in the dog house yet again would be hilarious if I didn't draft him on a team
Cam Akers, Alex Mattison and Racchad White might all be Mike Davis
Bijan got a goal-line carry, but stuffed
love seeing Latavius Murray get the TD when I have no Bills. Can always count on other people's misery being a source of joy, no matter what else happens.
have a bad feeling about these games -- trying to reverse jinx with this post, but not feeling it.
Went Purdy, Wilson, Dimes, Flowers/Sanders, Wilson/Thomas, Giants D, respectively. LFG.
Following tough calls today, hoping to go roughly 65 percent (all PPR): Dak vs Purdy. Russell Wilson vs Stafford, Danny Dimes vs. Anthony Richardson, Zay Flowers, Miles Sanders, AJ Dillon, Garrett Wilson (3 of 4), Kyle Pitts v Michael Thomas, Giants D vs Broncos D,
Will lay out some of the 50/50 calls closer to game time -- I don't think I'll tinker any more unless news breaks close to the game.
Have a lot of tough lineup decisions this week. Very hard to get everything right.
Say you have 8 50/50-ish call, only 1 in 512 you don't make an error, and often it's a major one. Already sat Cousins (364, 4) for Anthony Richardson.
Week 2 ATS Picks
Last week was poor, not just the 1-4 record — sometimes you lose on coin flip games, and it’s just bad luck, but these were bad picks. I had the Giants (40-0), the Steelers (30-7) and also the Bears (38-20). They weren’t 14-point spreads, either.
The Steelers one was especially bad because while I thought the Giants and Bears were good values, I didn't even like the Steelers to begin with! I just thought it was odd and went contrarian for that reason. Never force it. You will know when it’s time to do the odd thing because you’ll feel it. If you don’t feel it, don’t do it.
This week, my lines were much closer to the actual ones which is good and bad. Good because my finger’s more on the pulse of the league, but bad because I have less conviction.
In any event, here’s are my picks in the three SuperContest-style pools:
Normal 1 and 2 (1-4)
Giants -4 — I’d feel a lot better if I knew for sure Andrew Thomas (hamstring) were playing and at something close to full capacity, but I’m buying low after that traumatic Sunday night disaster.
Jaguars +3.5 — Maybe the Chiefs with Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back will crush them, but Jones hasn’t played all summer, Kelce might not be 100 percent, and they’re laying more than a field goal on the road against a good team.
Titans +3 — I could have used this in my “ugly” entry too. The Chargers just strike me as soft. A field goal at home seems like more than enough to make up for the talent disparity.
Team +3.5 — Sam Howell looked pretty bad against the Cardinals, but this seems like too many points for the Broncos to lay until they prove something.
Falcons -1.5 — I’m not sold yet on the Packers, and the Falcons should run all day on them.
Ugly (2-3)
Seahawks +5 — The Lions are a fun up-and-coming team, and who wants to touch the Seahawks after they got blown out at home last week against the Rams?
Rams +7 — Speaking of which, who wants to take the Rams and their no-names on offense against the 49ers, while getting only one score?
Patriots +3 — Any takers for the Mac Jones Patriots against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Tua?
Panthers +3 — Was there anything redeeming about the Panthers 14-point loss to the Falcons last week?
Steelers +2.5 — This was the most hold-my-nose of all. The Steelers are a bad team, they face what might be a serious contender if Deshaun Watson is back and they’re getting only 2.5 points?
Monday night home dog divisional rival coming off an embarrassing loss should bring it, and the Browns have oddly played well against the Bengals (who were out of sync due to the Burrow injury last week) of late.
Updated Survivor Pick
I wrote I was leaning Bills earlier this week, but I changed my mind and am now leaning Cowboys.
I had misgivings earlier in the day when I had to email in the pick for my home league pool, and I as was walking to get a haircut, it dawned on me what could be the reason why: The Damar Hamlin incident.
No, I don’t think he died and was replaced by a body-double, but while Hamlin’s recovery is great news, it was marketed as a feel-good story and a great reminder to learn CPR, and anything else besides the elephant in the room: Why did a 24-year old in excellent physical condition suffer a sudden cardiac arrest?
I don’t feel that question has been answered satisfactorily, especially in an environment where the league coerced players — especially marginal ones like Hamlin who could easily be cut — to inject themselves with novel medication they didn’t need that has increased risk of heart attacks, especially in 16-24 YO males.
People speculated his cardiac arrest was in fact caused by comotio cordis shortly after the incident, but I don’t believe that condition was ever diagnosed and confirmed by his doctors. (I could be wrong, but I just searched for 20 minutes and saw numerous articles claiming Hamlin himself attributed it to comotio cordis, but with no quoted statements or supporting links. One of the articles claimed Hamlin’s vaccination status was unknown! If he were unvaccinated, people would be screaming it from the rooftops, given all the speculation about the mRNA shots to which Hamlin’s collapse gave rise.
That is not to say I know conclusively the mRNA shot caused Hamlin’s heart attack. I do not. But given the incentives, the NFL’s coercive policy, the prevelance of heart problems as a result of the shot and the bizarre avoidance of the topic or communication of a clear and certain diagnosis, I would set the odds on it being mRNA-related at about -1000, i.e., the moneyline on a roughly 14-point favorite. Don’t forget the NFL, one of the military industrial complex’s go-to public relations partners, was happy to help sanitize the Pat Tillman story too. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine them doing the same on behalf of the pharmaceutical conglomerates, especially given their mRNA-shot policy and the advertising dollars at stake.
But what does a reserve safety who was inactive in Week 1 have to do with my Survivor pick? After the Hamlin game against the Bengals, which was cancelled, the Bills beat a weak New England team at home, barely outlasted the Dolphins in a home playoff game and then got blown out in Cincinnati. Then they opened the year, losing to the Zach-Wilson Jets.
For me, there is something rotten about the whole affair. The players are forced to pretend Hamlin is a feel good story when many of them have to believe among themselves it was likely caused by the injections they also took (most of them at least.) NFL players are not typically from the laptop class whose professional and social incentives align such that they dare not question “The Science.” So I imagine they are going along with an unpleasant charade while simultaneously trying to compete and coalsece as a team at a high level. Maintaining a lie takes a psychological and emotional toll.
That’s just my speculative opinion, of course — maybe Hamlin really did just have a freak occurrence of comotio cordis, and the team has moved on entirely from the incident or might even be inspired by his recovery. As I said, I do not know for sure. But the whole situation seems off to me, and it’s enough to sway me from majority Bills to majority Cowboys. (Though I will probably still sprinkle in a couple Bills among my 10 offshore sportsbook entries, because even if the shot was the cause, the idea it’s distracting them, might be wrong.)
THURSDAY NIGHT OBSERVATIONS
That was annoying. First off NFL GamePass has switched to DAZN, and I’m having tons of problems with it, unable to stream multiple games, unable to watch the “Game in 40” using Apple TV, so I have to watch on my desktop, and today there was no edited version at all, so I watched only five minutes of highlights. I suppose it’s an even more efficient use of my time, but I’m missing a lot of what happened.
Secondly, I had a coin-flip call between Kirk Cousins and Anthony Richardson in the NFFC, and I went Richardson. Third, I have AJ Brown in that league too. And that was the only NFFC team that won last week. I also had Alexander Mattison going in another league. At least the Vikings covered in my picking pool, but let me double check that the picks actually saved.
I sat Cousins because it was a road game against a good defense, and I thought there was blowout/dud potential. He went 31-44-364-4 with no picks.
Mattison (8-28-0, 6-3-11-0, fumble) was obviously a bad matchup, but I played him because the Vikings have no one else. He’s the Mike Davis of this year, and I knew it, but like a donkey I drafted him anyway in the seventh round in one league.
I’m glad Justin Jefferson (13-11-159-0) hasn’t scored yet because he’s not on any of my teams. What a paragon of consistency.
TJ Hockenson (8-7-66-2) was the third tight end off the board for most of draft season (Darren Waller crept ahead of him late in some cases) and was the second most targeted player in the game. As I said, I didn’t watch, except for the two TD catches, so I have no idea what the other targets looked like.
Jalen Hurts had a modest day and threw a pick, but those easy QB-sneak TDs where the line gets behind him and pushes are going to add up and hurt the team’s running backs.
D’Andre Swift (28-175-1, 3-3-6-0) was a zero in Week 1, and his owners are lucky that (a) Kenneth Gainwell was hurt, so they had clarity; and (b) that the matchup was so good you would want to use Swift. I hope people in my leagues still kept him on their benches, but I haven’t checked yet. Rashaad Penny (3-9-0, 1-1-5-0) did almost nothing, but it would have been a major leap of faith (or desperation) to use him. The Eagles backs could be a headache all year, especially with Hurts stealing some many easy TDs, but Swift has major upside, especially if he gets more active as a receiver.
The only silver lining for me was my Primetime Devonta Smith (5-4-131-1) who didn’t see a lot of work, but made it count with a long TD. Brown (6-4-29-0) did little, but he just needs to stay healthy and will get his.
Jake Elliott nailed a line-drive 61-yard FG at the end of the first half. A lot of people want to get rid of kickers from fantasy football, but I love when they kick you a touchdown. Not that I have him anywhere.