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7210583622172e5cfb82ef7cb3204491a5ac6796439bbbaf4534805a5238c3c1
“That is not dead which can eternal lie, And with strange aeons even death may die.”

My hands are tied

The billions shift from side to side

An' the wars go on with brainwashed pride

For the love of God and our human rights

An' all these things are swept aside

By bloody hands, time can't deny

An' are washed away by your genocide

An' history hides the lies of our civil wars

D'you wear a black armband when they shot the man

Who said peace could last forever?

An' in my first memories, they shot Kennedy

I went numb when I learned to see

So I never fell for Vietnam

We got the wall in D.C. to remind us all

That you can't trust freedom when it's not in your hands

When everybody's fightin' for their promised land

Long crosspaste coming from something I found elsewhere. Idgaf about blackrock in the long run, but this is interesting. Full paper at the end.

These are the authors:

• ⁠Andrew Ang is a managing director at BlackRock in New York, NY.

• ⁠Tom Morris is a managing director at BlackRock in London, UK.

• ⁠Raffaele Savi is a managing director at BlackRock in San Francisco, CA.

"It is optimal to hold a small allocation to BTC with utility functions that exhibit a preference for positive skewness, like Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) or Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences when there is a small probability of the bliss regime occurring. The allocations are very sensitive to changes in the probability of the bliss regime."

and

"There is a “normal” regime with a relatively low mean (but still high in absolute terms) of 95% per year with large volatility of 114% per year. The other regime is a “bliss” regime which has an extremely high mean of 467% but with lower volatility of 51%. The bliss regime has a probability of approximately 3%. The infrequent occurrence of a draw from the bliss regime can fit the very long right-hand tail of the empirical distribution of BTC returns. In the context of Peterffy’s quote, the possible BTC appreciation to “a million dollars” can be modeled by the bliss regime."

and

"We consider only the role of BTC as a direct investible asset. This ignores any perspectives of the remarkable technology in the blockchain or the wider web3 ecosystem of which crypto is part, the possible role of crypto as a form of fiat money and possible seigniorage value, the market structure of BTC itself, the positive network externalities of BTC and other crypto in tokens and other membership-related features, or underlying fundamental valuation of BTC. These effects likely would lead to further demand for BTC holdings beyond that captured by financial wealth in a utility function."

IN CONCLUSION

"The bliss regime occurs with a small probability. The large positive skewness captured by the infrequently occurring bliss regime induces even investors with power utility, which is locally mean-variance, to hold significant allocations to BTC. Behavioral investors with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) utility are even more sensitive to the large positive skew, because they overweight the bliss regime compared to its objective probability. With CPT, an investor need only believe the bliss regime will occur with probabilities around 0.0005 to hold optimal BTC allocations of approximately 3%."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4042239

Replying to Avatar preston

So I was lucky enough to get an advanced copy of nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a new book in preparation for a podcast we’ll be recording, and all I can say is get ready people! My god get ready...

If you can’t understand the value prop of Bitcoin after reading this book, you’ll never get it. The best part, she doesn’t even discuss bitcoin until chapter 20. 🤣

Mark my words, it’ll be a landmark classic that generations will reference. It's insanely thorough but also very accessible considering the complexity of the material that’s covered.

I think she plans to have it punished very soon (within a month or two), so watch-out for it! It’s the ultimate orange pilling device for people that are intellectually curious.

Absolutely stoked for this! Thanks for letting us know!

"Let's think the unthinkable, let's do the undoable, Let us prepare to grapple with the ineffable itself, and see if way may not eff it, after all"

"To allow ourselves to be seduced by the story of apocalypse is like clutching the railing of a sinking ship. The solid feel of the wood and metal may make you feel more secure,

But to survive

You have to get off the ship"

The last myth, 184

I'm gonna have to toss and turn on that for now. I do appreciate it though. I've been really interested in building a pwnagotchi too, and I gotta make up my mind.

Pwnagotchi.ai in case you haven't seen it.

Nothing worth taking seriously as it's entropy is straight up awful and a lot of things had to be hard-coded for efficiency. This was just a learning project for myself and I think it looks pretty cool.