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Rajesh
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Bitcoin friendly Family Photographer πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ§‘

Colodial silver is great too. May be the only silver you want to hold πŸ˜‚

Useful backdrop, may need to colour coordinate attire when walking past πŸ˜…

Replying to Avatar Lyn Alden

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.

Those satanic banking families do seem to like the β€œ33” number

Golden hour by the stables

Good afternoon Nostrites πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§πŸ‘‹

Don’t conflate vaccine induced shingles with monkeypox folks #2WeeksToSpreadTheCream

Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Actually yes, one with 8 doctors who were going to talk about the β€œthing” #ImNotFeelingSuicidal

🐘 in the room on the thing we’re not supposed to talk about #CarryOnDyingSuddenly

🐘 in the room on the thing we’re not supposed to talk about #CarryOnDyingSuddenly

Girl with a Dolphin Fountain 🐬 overlooking TB #London

Engaging no entry sign at front of trendy Mayfair diner #London

Green plaques in London. So famous you’ve never heard of them πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§

This should act as an accelerant for Nostr here in England. Country is going full 🀑 🌎

Durov was arrested as he got off his private jet on the tarmac at Le Bourget airport in Paris. BFMTV reports that the Telegram founder was put on a wanted list JUST MINUTES before landing in Paris, and an arrest warrant was issued.

Durov "will be presented to an investigating judge on Saturday evening before a possible indictment on Sunday for a multitude of offenses: terrorism, narcotics, fraud, money laundering, receiving stolen goods, pedo criminal content," TF1 reports.

Floral ☎️ #London