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Raoul Cavalli
99070643b651e98529748765e9ade36841a2a434e528d479f1ba15228d1e9706
A sovereign individual.

🚨 Saylor Live from nostr:npub167n5w6cj2wseqtmk26zllc7n28uv9c4vw28k2kht206vnghe5a7stgzu3r :

“The most detrimental thing you could do to your company or product is a good idea. Basically, bad ideas make you get better. If I wanted #Bitcoin to fail, I would fund the best developers to make it better.”

#Nostr #Prague thoughts

👀

Picking up on nostr:nprofile1qqsp4lsvwn3aw7zwh2f6tcl6249xa6cpj2x3yuu6azaysvncdqywxmgprpmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuumwdae8gtnnda3kjctvqyvhwumn8ghj7ur4wfshv6tyvyhxummnw3ezumrpdejq4k23nj ‘s sharp take on BitBonds. They aren’t just the new junk bonds. They’re a confession of where fiat is headed.

The state needs convexity. Bitcoin provides it. BitBonds are the vehicle.

What starts as a workaround becomes a benchmark. Junk bonds did it. Mortgage-backed debt did it. BitBonds will too. if Bitcoin survives the volatility.

But this isn’t just about finance. It’s about nation states survival imo,

The fiat system is drowning in its own promises. Yields are rising. Buyers are disappearing. And BitBonds is a hybrid bond wrapped around Bitcoin. A last-ditch play to roll sovereign debt with digital collateral.

Here’s how it works: governments issue bonds with ultra-low coupons. 90% of the proceeds go to state spending. 10% buys Bitcoin. Investors get fixed income plus a piece of BTC upside. If Bitcoin rallies, it’s a convex windfall. If it collapses, governments still win: borrowing at a discount compared to traditional rates.

The pitch is seductive: “safe” Bitcoin exposure, no custody headaches, all within a regulated wrapper. Ideal for pension funds, family offices, and bureaucrats pretending they understand innovation.

But every financial product with asymmetric payoff begins the same way: hype, leverage, and someone eventually left holding the bag.

We’ve seen this movie: junk bonds in the ’80s, mortgage-backed securities in the 2000s, ESG debt in the 2010s. Each began as a workaround, not a solution. Each ended with a “correction” and survivors who shaped the next cycle.

If pilot programs succeed, BitBonds could hit $2T by 2030. They’ll reshape how governments borrow, how allocators think about #Bitcoin, and how systemic risk hides in plain sight.

#BitBonds are not a financial innovation. They’re a monetary confession. The dollar needs Bitcoin more than Bitcoin needs the dollar.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

nostr:nevent1qqsqepxunrwwvkscxpzpvu3t0c5tw5j6zzmjx8hpv4kpwapja5umylgz9td5e

I was wondering! Makes sense

« I can't buy coffee with Bitcoin »

Maybe... But look at it follow the script:

Bitcoin isn't failing as money.

It isn’t trying to (and can't) “replace the dollar overnight.”

It’s going through the same monetization path that gold, silver and other non-fiat monies went through.

🔸 First: it’s a collectible. A curiosity. Held by cypherpunks and early tech circles.

🔸 Then: it becomes a store of value.

A hedge against broken currencies.

A savings tool in fragile economies.

A way to exit the noise and hold something finite.

🔸 With time and liquidity: it matures into a medium of exchange.

We're already seeing this with Lightning adoption across Africa and #LATAM.

Remittances.

Merchant use.

Micro-payments.

🔸Eventually: it can serve as a unit of account.

That’s the last mile. And the hardest.

It means people think in sats, not dollars.

Meaning a coffee would, in your mind, cost 1500 Sats, not $6.

This doesn’t happen through press releases or politics.

It happens organically, driven by utility and necessity.

Trying to rush #Bitcoin into the final phase before it completes the first ones is a big mistake and irrational expectation.

Most people get frustrated that it’s “not money yet.”

That’s like judging a teenager for not being a CEO.

Let it grow.

We’re watching a monetary revolution unfold in real time and we’re somewhere between Stage 2 and 3.

(Depending on where you are in the world)

In the #MiddleEast and #Africa?

That curve is bending faster than most realize.

P.S: What stage do you think we're in, globally or locally?

Curious to hear where your region sits on this curve #nostr!

I love in the US bubble unfortunately!

🟣 Not only the federal government owes $37 trillion. America is drowning in debt.

In 2025, they'll run a $1.9 trillion deficit (more than 6% of GDP) and pay over $1.11 trillion just to cover interest. More than the entire U.S. defense budget.

By 2035, the Congressional Budget Office projects U.S. debt will hit $58 trillion, or 130% of GDP.

Moody’s has already stripped the U.S. of its last AAA credit rating.

Their warning? Debt is no longer a long-term issue. It’s now a strategic liability.

Even worst: M2 is expanding again → Up 4.2% year-over-year as of March 2025.

That’s the fastest pace since 2022. We’re watching inflationary pressure return, while real yields evaporate.

#Bonds, once the gold standard of safety, are now melting ice cubes.

And still, #Congress continues to shovel more fuel on the fire.

The latest round of extended #Trump-era tax cuts, wrapped in the ironically named “One Big Beautiful Bill,” will gut federal tax revenue by $4.5 trillion over the next decade, while offering just 1.1% additional GDP growth.

I don’t see this as #policy, but arithmetic failure.

→ As trust is dying, #capital is flocking to #Bitcoin.

The new hedge against political incompetence.

With a fixed supply of 21 million and no central issuer, Bitcoin is structurally immune.

When fiat collapses, code doesn’t beg for bailouts.

Look, we’re experiencing a coordinated, institutional repositioning: 👇

🟠 Over 59% of institutional investors in the U.S now allocate at least 10% of their #portfolios to BTC and digital #assets.

🟠 #BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust crossed $50 billion in AUM in less than a year. #Fidelity is right behind. Total spot ETF assets are projected to hit $80 billion by end of Q2 2025.

🟠 The latest #Coinbase / #EY-Parthenon survey is crystal clear: 83% of institutional investors plan to increase their #crypto allocations in 2025. 59% of them will go beyond 5% of AUM.

🟠 Nearly 100 publicly listed companies now hold BTC on their balance sheets.

🟠 #Treasury management firms are spinning up Bitcoin-specific advisory practices.

👉 Now, sovereigns are entering the game.

🟠 In March 2025, the U.S. #government consolidated seized BTC into a newly designated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

I see it as an admission. #BTC is no longer a threat. It’s an asset.

🟠 European central banks are buying too. Quietly, but with intent.

What was once ridiculed as “internet money” is now treated like digital gold.

#Nostr, I’m not writing about a “crypto story” here but about a capital allocation story.

The old model of relying on bonds is broken.

Real yields: gone.

Trust: gone.

The “risk-free rate” now carries systemic risk.

And we’re watching the global risk-free asset quietly shift from Treasury bonds to the hardest money ever.

𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵.

The world’s largest asset managers are already on it.

The next move is fully strategic.

Yours could be too.

Man!