Again
Waffling
Good Morrow Squires and Squirettes
It's now inevitable... Buckle up.
#btc
123
You're right. Most aren''t good people in the biblical sense. The bible teaches there is only one way to Heavan, and that's through Jesus. Take it or leave it, the world doesn't care. After all it's only your eternal soul up for grabs.
Yeah, it's pretty insane but nothing to what it will do in the next 20 years!
Def broke it
Testing ... Testing .. Is this thing on!?
Investing directly in Bitcoin can be complex, requiring technical knowledge to manage a digital wallet and securely store private keys. However, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a more accessible way for investors, especially institutions, to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without the challenges of direct ownership. What are Bitcoin ETFs? Bitcoin ETFs are investment vehicles that track the price of Bitcoin, allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency's price movements without actually owning it directly. While Bitcoin itself trades on crypto exchanges, Bitcoin ETFs trade on traditional stock exchanges, combining features of mutual funds, stocks and bonds. There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin Futures ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to the current market price ("spot price") of Bitcoin. They hold actual Bitcoin as the underlying asset, not derivatives.
How Spot Bitcoin ETFs Work
The ETF issuer purchases Bitcoin from holders or exchanges and stores it securely in a digital wallet. Shares of the ETF are then issued, with each share representing a certain amount of Bitcoin held. The ETF share price is designed to track the current Bitcoin market price. Market makers help maintain liquidity by constantly offering to buy and sell ETF shares. Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs are available in only 8 countries including Canada, Germany, Brazil and Australia. The U.S. has not yet approved any spot Bitcoin ETFs due to investor protection and market manipulation concerns.1
Bitcoin Futures ETFs
Unlike spot ETFs, Bitcoin futures ETFs do not hold actual Bitcoin. Instead, they use derivatives like futures contracts to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements.
How Bitcoin Futures ETFs Work
Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a set price on a future date. Investors essentially bet on whether Bitcoin's future price will be higher or lower than the current price. These contracts trade on exchanges like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The U.S. SEC has approved several Bitcoin futures ETFs, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO). Futures-based Bitcoin ETFs also exist in Canada and Hong Kong.1
Spot vs Futures Bitcoin ETFs
The key differences between spot and futures Bitcoin ETFs are:
Spot ETFs hold actual Bitcoin, while futures ETFs hold derivatives contracts
Spot ETFs directly track Bitcoin's current price, while futures ETFs track the price indirectly
Spot ETFs require secure custody of Bitcoin, while futures ETFs do not.
Impact on Bitcoin's Price
Bitcoin ETFs, especially spot ETFs, could significantly impact Bitcoin's price by:
Increasing demand from new investors who prefer ETFs over direct Bitcoin ownership
Providing a stamp of legitimacy and boosting confidence in Bitcoin
Enabling more active trading of Bitcoin exposure by institutions and speculators
Conclusion The emergence of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly spot ETFs, represents a major development in making Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors. By enabling regulated Bitcoin investment without the complexities of direct ownership, ETFs could improve market liquidity and accelerate institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024:
Many experts believe Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in 2024, potentially surpassing $100,000
The average peak price prediction across sources is around $87,875
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 is expected to be a major catalyst, historically preceding record-breaking rallies
If Bitcoin repeats past trends, it could reach $148,000 by the first half of 2025
Increased institutional demand and the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are also seen as key drivers pushing prices higher
However, some warn of a potential pre-halving rally followed by a sharp correction
More bullish predictions see Bitcoin reaching as high as $200,000 in 2024
One analyst believes an imminent supply shock due to macro events and diminishing Grayscale supply could propel Bitcoin to $500,000 by Q4 2025
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025:
Forecasts for 2025 have a wider range. The average prediction sees Bitcoin climbing to $122,688 in 2025
However, some expect a major correction after the 2024 peak.
One prediction sees Bitcoin falling significantly from 2024 highs, potentially dropping over 50% by mid-2025 before settling in a range of $58,500 to $68,000 by year-end, indicating a shift to a bearish trend
In contrast, another forecast estimates Bitcoin could reach $105,743 in the first half of 2025 before closing the year around $90,002, up 113% from March 2024 prices
Nostr sure catches fire in my PM. GN Folks
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) exploring Bitcoin for diversification:
GPIF Overview
GPIF is the world's largest pension fund with $1.5 trillion in assets under management as of December 2023.
Its current portfolio includes domestic and foreign stocks, bonds, and alternative assets like infrastructure and real estate.
Exploring New Investment Options
GPIF is exploring diversifying its portfolio beyond traditional holdings by considering assets like Bitcoin, gold, forests, and farmland.
This move signals a potential shift towards more unconventional investments for the pension fund.
GPIF aims to gather information on how other pension funds incorporate such assets and their practical investment experiences.
Fact-Finding Mission
GPIF clarified that this is a preliminary step to explore new investment options.
Any expansion of investment targets will depend on the findings and subsequent research from this initiative.
The fund has not made any firm commitments to invest in Bitcoin or other new asset classes yet.
Portfolio Diversification Efforts
In recent years, GPIF has focused on enhancing operational sophistication and diversifying its portfolio.
Since 2022, it has handpicked 56 active funds spanning North American, developed countries, and Japanese stocks.
Considering Bitcoin could further propel GPIF's diversification efforts if it decides to invest in the future.
So where does this demand come from?
Is it all institutions, family offices and corporations?
Based on the historical price data and adoption trends, emerging markets are likely to play a crucial role in driving Bitcoin's mainstream adoption and market share growth over the next decade, potentially even overshadowing institutional adoption in developed economies.
Africa
Many African nations suffer from high inflation, capital controls, and underdeveloped financial systems. Bitcoin provides an alternative store of value and payment rail. Countries like Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya are already seeing growing cryptocurrency adoption.
Latin America
Similar economic challenges like inflation and lack of banking access make cryptocurrencies attractive in Latin America. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, and Mexico could drive significant Bitcoin adoption as remittances and a savings vehicle.
Southeast Asia
With large unbanked populations and remittance corridors, Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, Philippines, and Indonesia represent fertile ground for Bitcoin adoption, especially through mobile payments.
India
Despite recent regulatory hurdles, India's huge population, remittance flows, and tech-savvy youth make it a market with immense potential for Bitcoin and crypto adoption in the long run.
Eastern Europe
Countries in Eastern Europe like Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia have shown rising cryptocurrency usage, driven by factors like economic instability and capital controls.
Middle East
Oil-rich nations like the UAE are positioning themselves as crypto hubs, while economic challenges in places like Iran and Turkey could spur grassroots Bitcoin adoption as a censorship-resistant asset.
Emerging markets plagued by issues like inflation, currency devaluation, capital controls, and lack of financial access are prime candidates for leapfrogging into Bitcoin and crypto adoption over this decade. However, regulatory clarity and easy-to-use services will be key to driving mainstream uptake in these markets.
what is the likely price of bitcoin in the period 2028 to 2033:
Here are my observations and predictions for Bitcoin's adoption rate and probable price range over the second half of the next decade (2028-2033):
Adoption Signals
The price charts show Bitcoin has experienced several major boom and bust cycles driven by speculation and changing narratives around its adoption. However, some key signals point to increasing real-world adoption:
Institutional investment from funds, corporations and payment companies entering the space
Retail adoption through easy-to-use apps and services
Emerging use cases like remittances, e-commerce, and decentralized finance (DeFi)
Improving regulatory clarity in major economies
Scaling solutions like Lightning Network enhancing Bitcoin's usability
2028-2030 Adoption Predictions
Adoption Rate in 2028: 15-25% of the global population
Adoption Rate in 2030: 25-40% of the global population
By 2028-2030, I expect Bitcoin to have achieved a degree of mainstream adoption, being used for various financial services by a sizable minority of the global population. Drivers could include:
More institutional products, corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin
Widespread cheap/fast payment rails and remittance corridors
Retail investment demand through simple apps and services
Emerging markets leapfrogging traditional finance
However, volatility, regulatory hurdles and competition from other crypto assets may limit full mainstream adoption in this period.
2031-2033 Adoption Predictions
Adoption Rate in 2033: 40-60% of the global population
Towards the early 2030s, I predict Bitcoin could cross into majority global adoption, if current trends continue. This could be driven by:
Bitcoin establishing itself as a legitimate heavy weight asset class and store of value
User-friendly DeFi services building on Bitcoin bringing crypto to the masses
Improving scalability, privacy and regulatory integration
Broader economic drivers like inflation and loss of trust in fiat currencies.
Of course, this is just a potential scenario.
So what does this mean for price?
2028 Price Prediction: $400,000 - $800,000
By 2028, if Bitcoin achieves 15-25% global adoption as a mainstream financial asset and payment rail, its price could realistically reach the $400,000 to $800,000 range. This accounts for Bitcoin's market cap growing to several trillion dollars as institutional and retail investment continues pouring in.
2030 Price Prediction: $800,000 - $1,600,000
With an projected adoption rate of 25-40% by 2030, Bitcoin's price could potentially double from 2028 levels to between $800,000 and $1.6 million per BTC. This assumes Bitcoin cements itself as a legitimate store-of-value and medium-of-exchange globally.
2033 Price Prediction: $1.5 million - $3 million
If Bitcoin realizes majority global adoption of 40-60% by 2033, driven by user-friendly DeFi services and economic factors, its price could reach $1.5 million to $3 million per coin. This valuation accounts for Bitcoin potentially capturing over 10% of the global money supply and investment markets.
I'm noticing some trends emerge in Crypto trading data of late.
- Increasing trend of using deep learning methods like Long short term memory networks for price prediction.
- Growing interest in sentiment analysis and social media data to predict price movements. This can cause feedback loops.
- Dex's are gaining in popularity.
- Machine learning enabling intelligent decentralised apps for trading.
- Crypto market as a whole is becoming more linked to financial market. This brings in the sharks and extra regulations.
Just more reasons this hodl hard friends.
Not an issue.
Peter Schiff is a moron. That's it. That's the note.