âThailand's department of disaster prevention and mitigation said that temperatures will exceed 40 C in at least 28 provinces on Saturday.â
The latest EEI data release (April 17, 2023) gives us a clearer view of the impacts of the energy imbalance (link to data in comments)
âSchematic overview on the central role of the Earth heat inventory and its linkage to anthropogenic emissions, the Earth energy
imbalance, change in the Earth system, and implications for ecosystems and human systems.
âThe Earth heat inventory plays a central role for climate change monitoring as it provides information on the absolute value of the Earth energy imbalance, the total Earth system heat gain, and how much and where heat is stored in the different Earth system components. Examples of associated global-scale changes in the Earth system as assessed in Gulev et al. (2021) are drawn, together with major implications for the ecosystem and human systems (IPCC, 2022b).
âUpward arrows indicate increasing change, downward arrows indicate decreasing change, and turning arrows indicate change in both directions.
âThe percentages for heat stored in the Earth system components are provided over the period 2006â2020.â 
Being able to curate your own experience is where itâs at for sure.
As an aside the OnlyZaps toggle solves my constantly hitting đ€đ» by accident. đ Was driving me nuts since you couldnât undo a like
#Japan issues heatwave warning 
The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) is the most robust measure we have of the rate of climate change how much warming is already locked in due to past emissions and heat accumulation.
Here is an update of data previously available:
Since records began this is the first time a temperature of 45°C has been recorded in Thailand.
Location independence, that is the ability for a team to be able to work from anywhere, in a well designed office-in-the-cloud, is going to become a major adaptation strategy for a world where physical environments become increasingly unstable.
For example, the flash flooding in Fort Lauderdale this week is projected to become the new norm as we continue to heat.
One-day downpours have âincreased in frequency and magnitude in the area over the last few decades. These heavy rainfall events coupled with sea level rise on the Florida coast need to serve as significant âwake up callsâ for the residents of South Florida about the severe risks that climate change poses to them.ââProf Jason Furtado University of Oklahoma meteorology (See https://apnews.com/article/downpour-flood-fort-lauderdale-climate-change-7b58c3737086207d30a8370261863847)
So itâs great to see that young companies are embracing flexible and location independent working as it means they will be more resilient from the get go.
Image source: https://www.flex.scoopforwork.com/company-founding-year
Mmm seems Damus drops links if there are several in an update đ€
Here is the image link that was attached to the original update
(fyi #[1])
Location independence, that is the ability for a team to be able to work from anywhere, in a well designed office-in-the-cloud, is going to become a major adaptation strategy for a world where physical environments become increasingly unstable.
For example, the flash flooding in Fort Lauderdale this week is projected to become the new norm as we continue to heat.
One-day downpours have âincreased in frequency and magnitude in the area over the last few decades. These heavy rainfall events coupled with sea level rise on the Florida coast need to serve as significant âwake up callsâ for the residents of South Florida about the severe risks that climate change poses to them.ââProf Jason Furtado University of Oklahoma meteorology (See https://apnews.com/article/downpour-flood-fort-lauderdale-climate-change-7b58c3737086207d30a8370261863847)
So itâs great to see that young companies are embracing flexible and location independent working as it means they will be more resilient from the get go.
Image source: https://www.flex.scoopforwork.com/company-founding-year
Did you know:
The strongest El Nino events in recorded history were the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events. Both of these reached a peak sea surface temperature of 2.3ÂșC in the Nino 3.4 region.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are projecting a 2.4Âș anomaly by September for this region.
Will this El Nino be the record breaker?
(BOM forecast details here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean)
#ElNino2023
Did you knowâŠ
đȘŠđTwitter
https://slate.com/technology/2023/04/twitter-inc-x-corp-elon-musk-x-nevada.html
For the longest time wet bulb temperatures of 35°C and above were considered to be the human survivability threshold.
However a new study, whoâs goal was to help people better prepare for heat waves found that the threshold was lower. (See https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021)
After analyzing their data, the researchers found that critical wet-bulb temperatures ranged from 25°C to 28°C in hot-dry environments and from 30°C to 31°C in warm-humid environments â all lower than the long-held 35°C wet-bulb theory.
âOur results suggest that in humid parts of the world, we should start to get concerned â even about young, healthy people â when it's above 31 degrees wet-bulb temperature.ââW. Larry Kenney, professor of physiology and kinesiology and Marie Underhill Noll Chair in Human Performance.
This is of particular interest to people living in the equatorial belt as we continue to heat.
#ClimateLiteracy #WetBulbTemeratures
How climate literacy should inform business decisions.
In May of 2014 various climate models projected a major El Niño event on the horizon, the full onset was only later in 2014, dissipating in May-June 2016. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014â2016_El_Niño_event)
The impact of this strong El Niño in our part of the world led to a severe water crisis in the City of Cape Town for example, with dam levels beginning to decrease rapidly in 2015. Cape Townâs Water Day Zero came very close. (See https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis)
The water crisis had a significant impact on businesses in the area, especially those that rely heavily on water, such as agriculture, tourism, and hospitality. Some of the observed impacts included:
đ Reduced agricultural production and income, leading to job losses and food insecurity.
âïž Reduced tourist arrivals and spending, affecting hotels, restaurants, and attractions.
đ” Increased operational costs and risks for businesses due to water tariffs, restrictions, and shortages.
đ Reduced consumer spending and confidence due to higher living costs and uncertainty.
đč Reduced investment and economic growth due to lower business confidence and competitiveness.
Now we face another El Niño but this time with the backdrop of a planet that has warmed by another 0.2°C since 2014/16.
This may not sound like much but these 0.2°C means that extreme events onto us to grow in intensity.
If you are in the Cape Town or Western Cape in general how are you planning for an event that are set to rival the conditions experienced in 2017?
How will the El Niño affect the area you are in? Do you know?
#climateliteracy #climatecrisis #leadership #adaptation
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) issued its Seasonal Climate Watch â April to August 2023 a few days ago.
El Niño is projected to have its impact as it did in 2015/16 which led the City of Cape Town to almost hit Day Zero with its water supply.
In 2017 the dry conditions also contributed to South Africaâs worst wildfire disaster in Knysna, where more than 700 homes were gutted.
Will we be better prepared this time?
https://www.weathersa.co.za/Documents/SeasonalForecast/SCOLF202303_03042023224249.pdf
#ElNino #SouthAfrica
Copernicus ECMWF data for March 2023. (https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-march-2023)
One month does not a trend make however we are moving ever closer to being permanently above the 1.5° mark.
March 2023, now joins the Marches of 2016 (hottest year on record), 2017, 2019 and 2020 all of which were above 1.5°
The projection for the year is that we will end at about 1.3° above preindustrial but it is still early days. 2024 will however be an entirely different story even with a weak El Niño.
Reminder from the latest AR6 Synthesis Report:
âClimate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5°C than at present (1.1°C) but lower than at 2°C (high confidence). Climate-related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security, and economic growth are projected to increase with global warming of 1.5°C. In terrestrial ecosystems, 3â14% of the tens of thousands of species assessed will likely face a very high risk of extinction at a GWL of 1.5°C. Coral reefs are projected to decline by a further 70â90% at 1.5°C of global warming (high confidence). At this GWL, many low-elevation and small glaciers around the world would lose most of their mass or disappear within decades to centuries (high confidence). Regions at disproportionately higher risk include Arctic ecosystems, dryland regions, small island development states and Least Developed Countries (high confidence).â
I was a heavy user of those! Most my lists were private. The best part was being able to add an account to a list without having to follow it.
The team at Copernicus ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) has just published a Climate Change Services dashboard.
The more of these data points that are made publicly available the better everyone can get at developing adaptation strategies as we continue to heat.
Check it out here:
Donât be caught off guard.
The instruments we use to measure the natural world have been sending back data as pictured.
As a result of these changes we are beginning to feel the impacts as projected by the models.
For example, as the 2023 European summer gets underway:
In southern European countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the severe drought and scarce rain are forcing water restrictions. In these countries there is a call on citizens to limit water use to the bare minimum. In Italy, the government has declared a national drought emergency in several regions of the country. Drinking water in these regions is becoming scarce, forests are prone to burning and there has been observed glacier melt in the Dolomites (https://www.dw.com/en/water-scarcity-eu-countries-forced-to-restrict-drinking-water-access/a-62363819)
In Germany, low water levels affected the inland shipping operations on the Upper and Middle Rhine in 2022. The German Farmersâ Association has issued a harvest warning for 2023, saying that without imminent rain, this yearâs harvests could be severely affected by projected late-summer heat waves.
In France, four departments are already subject to restrictions as of March 1, 2023: Ain, IsĂšre, Bouches-du-RhĂŽne and the PyrĂ©nĂ©es-Orientales. Residents of these areas are forbidden to water their gardens, fill their pools or wash their cars. Franceâs nuclear power plants, which rely on water for cooling, had to reduce their output due to the heat last year and are projecting the same challenges this summer (See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/edf-to-curb-nuclear-output-as-french-energy-crisis-worsens)
Adaptation to this ânew normalâ should be high on the agenda.
Donât be caught off guard.
The instruments we use to measure the natural world have been sending back data as pictured.
As a result of these changes we are beginning to feel the impacts as projected by the models.
For example, as the 2023 European summer gets underway:
In southern European countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy, the severe drought and scarce rain are forcing water restrictions. In these countries there is a call on citizens to limit water use to the bare minimum. In Italy, the government has declared a national drought emergency in several regions of the country. Drinking water in these regions is becoming scarce, forests are prone to burning and there has been observed glacier melt in the Dolomites (https://www.dw.com/en/water-scarcity-eu-countries-forced-to-restrict-drinking-water-access/a-62363819)
In Germany, low water levels affected the inland shipping operations on the Upper and Middle Rhine in 2022. The German Farmersâ Association has issued a harvest warning for 2023, saying that without imminent rain, this yearâs harvests could be severely affected by projected late-summer heat waves.
In France, four departments are already subject to restrictions as of March 1, 2023: Ain, IsĂšre, Bouches-du-RhĂŽne and the PyrĂ©nĂ©es-Orientales. Residents of these areas are forbidden to water their gardens, fill their pools or wash their cars. Franceâs nuclear power plants, which rely on water for cooling, had to reduce their output due to the heat last year and are projecting the same challenges this summer (See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-03/edf-to-curb-nuclear-output-as-french-energy-crisis-worsens)
Adaptation to this ânew normalâ should be high on the agenda.
Re 2) now that the atmosphere and oceans are heating the power of these storms will increase exponentially - does not bode well for those in these regions
Btw for a cyclone to form it needs the ocean to be 27° throughout a depth of about 46m.