We are inundates with propaganda in normal everyday life.

Anything with a gatekeeper will be mostly propaganda.

This is why we Nostr.

ALL of the things measured from within a system that steals from you are designed to keep you in it. Feeding on your energy and getting more chaotic and dangerous.

Prisoners dilemma of the highest order that most people as prisoners can’t see.

My sobering thoughts this morning after reading Nuclear War by Annie Jacobson.

Choose your time wisely!

#Bitcoin

#Nostr

#Fedimint

#Cashu

What aspects do you enjoy most about your favorite sci fi or fantasy novels? Obviously it’s a mix of everything but what consistent themes do you find yourself returning to frequently?

To give an example, I tend to like complex and internally consistent magic systems or “hard magic” systems, eg Brandon Sanderson. He basically invents an alternative physics in a given series and there’s a whole set of stories around that.

I also put a lot of weight on complex characters, eg Game of Thrones. You know it’s good writing when someone can push a kid out of a window in the first episode and then somehow kind of make you almost like the guy later on.

If you don’t like sci fi and/or fantasy, what is it about the genre(s) that you dislike? And do you like one but not the other, or both or neither?

What would be the primary rule of: a “rules based international order” sitting on top of money that steals from people?

Good evening.

In case you were confused by the title, The Inflation Reduction Act did not, in fact, reduce inflation.

Have a great night.

I regret to inform you that this is real 😂 nostr:note18shdtsxjzehdfuzqvfl5355uwgy676qg54n5kpyz3dfcjdp8572qj0r3ha

We should be using this time where they are obsessively focused on fighting Elon Musk to get set and ready. It’s unlikely they will not eventually find the right leverage point. Then after they publicly flog him for a while, they’re coming for us.

Frankly, dishonest people despise honest money.

#Bitcoin

Scarcity fuels innovation!!

The increasing totalitarian control structure actually accelerates all

of the building of freedom tech by creating more value for it.

Celebrate that you are just early in the realization.

#Bitcoin

#Nostr

One of the big macro questions is when will the US banking system run into the liquidity floor, requiring the Fed to end quantitative tightening? Due to current regulations and the "ample reserve" regime, banks generally have liquidity requirements relative to their overall size, and their overall size keeps growing nominally.

-Big banks ran into the liquidity floor in September 2019 at $1.5 trillion with the repo spike, and the Fed had to end quantitative tightening and resume mild quantitative easing (which was then overshadowed by the giga-liquidity-bazooka in 2020/2021).

-Smaller banks ran into the liquidity floor in March 2023 at $3.0 trillion (the new floor) with the regional bank crisis. Both the Fed and the Treasury provided liquidity in response, although the Fed has maintained quantitative tightening. Liquidity has been maintained above that level without being greatly elevated, which is probably what would have happened post-2019 if not for the pandemic/lockdown stuff thereafter.

The New York Fed thinks the liquidity floor will be reached sometime in 2025, and that they'll go back to gradual balance sheet expansion then. Andy Constan, formerly of Bridgewater, thinks it'll be late 2025. I debate him a bit on this since both of us cover this closely, and I generally think it'll be mid 2025, although there are enough moving variables that neither early 2025 or late 2025 would surprise me, so conservatively I say "by the end of 2025."

I was talking to a large institutional investor today, and he said that his contact who is a major repo operator at an investment bank, thinks the current floor is now $3.3 trillion, which is roughly where it is currently. That basically means any further quantitative tightening has to be offset by reverse repo drainage, or they'll have a repo issue and the Fed will need to end QT. My estimate is somewhere in the $3.1-$3.2 trillion range for the liquidity floor, meaning I think there's a bit more room than that repo operator. But either way it's pretty tight.

This is all kind of rambling but generally when that liquidity floor is reached and is responded to, it tends to be good for a lot of liquidity-driven assets, including bitcoin. And it'll probably be with a whimper more than a bang, kind of like the September 2019 repo crisis that nobody other than macro nerds remember.