Subnostr

# Comprehensive Analysis

Title: 2025: The Year Central Banks Finally Chose Gold Over U.S. Treasuries

URL: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/p/2025-the-year-central-banks-finally?publication_id=87095&post_id=175300220&isFreemail=true&r=133f0v&triedRedirect=true

Collected: 2025-10-05 03:37:11 +0000

Analyzed: 2025-10-05 03:39:07 +0000

## Overall takeaway

Central banks are increasingly favoring gold over U.S. Treasuries, reflecting a strategic shift towards economic stability amid global uncertainties.

## Conceptual model

- Gold now comprises 28% of central bank reserves.

- Central banks purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2021.

- Preference for gold is driven by dollar debasement concerns.

- 43% of central bankers plan to increase gold reserves next year.

- Gold is viewed as a long-term store of value.

## Next steps (optional)

- Monitor central bank gold purchasing trends.

- Evaluate the impact of gold accumulation on global markets.

- Consider personal investment strategies in gold.

## Short summary

Central banks have shifted their asset preferences, now holding more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, driven by a desire for economic stability and protection against dollar debasement. With increasing purchases, gold comprises about 28% of their reserves, reflecting a long-term strategy amid rising global uncertainty.

## Comprehensive summary

• Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, acquiring over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, compared to an average of 400-500 tons in the previous decade.

• For the first time since 1996, central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a percentage of their reserves, with gold making up about 28% and Treasuries around 24%.

• This trend has been gradual, starting around 2015, coinciding with the U.S. imposing sanctions on Russia, which prompted nations to reconsider holding dollar reserves.

• The weaponization of the dollar has led to a growing preference for gold, which cannot be seized or sanctioned.

• Central banks are accumulating gold as a long-term store of value and hedge against dollar debasement, making them less sensitive to gold price fluctuations.

• A recent survey indicated that 43% of central bankers plan to increase gold reserves in the next year, a rise from 29% the previous year.

• An overwhelming 95% of central bankers believe global official gold reserves will continue to rise, reflecting strong confidence in gold's value.

• This shift represents a long-term strategy by risk-averse financial managers to secure assets before potential crises.

## Entities

- keyword: line, holdings, u.s., central, banks, reserves, year, dollar, gold, treasuries

- location: Russia, Nixon, U.S., Russian, Washington, Lau

- organization: U.S. Treasuries, Treasury

## Related content

1. Get Ready For Trump’s Monetary Reset - by Matt Smith

Why: similarity 0.94

Summary: • Gold has surged 45% since 2024, with an unknown US buyer purchasing 2,000 metric tons (64 million ounces) since November 2024 - nearly 25% of the US government's supposed gold stockpile

• This buyer demands physical delivery, doesn't care about price or short-term profits, suggesting it's likely the US government (Fed or Treasury) acting on Trump's plan

• Trump's team is orchestrating a monetary reset to avoid economic collapse, surrounded by billionaires with a workable plan unlike previous administrations who merely exploited the system

• Gold is fleeing London for the US, with delivery delays extending from two days to two months as someone high in Wall Street and government executes Trump's economic policy

• A gold audit is being prepared to show other nations (China, Russia, BRICS) the true state of US solvency as they seek alternatives to the current US-led monetary order

• Trump plans to remonetize gold and "monetize everything" to restore US wealth through productivity, taking inspiration from an unlikely source (implied to be China)

• The plan aims to redraw US supply chains and fix massive debt/deficit problems that previous administrations considered unsolvable

• This represents the biggest monetary system change since Nixon severed the dollar from gold in 1971, potentially creating a "Golden Age" for prepared investors while degrading lifestyles of the unprepared

• The author frames this as a "Fourth Turning" moment where radical ideas get adopted rapidly, warning that Doug Casey's long-predicted "Greater Depression" and economic "Abyss" are finally

URL: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/p/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

2. Dollar's Decline Meets Rising Dedollarization: The Threat Comes from Within | The Daily Economy

Why: similarity 0.94

Summary: • The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen nearly 8.5% in the first half of the year, marking one of the sharpest declines since the mid-1980s, with the worst performance since inauguration since the 1971 Nixon shock

• Dollar weakness is driven by Trump administration's aggressive trade policies, escalating tariff conflicts, diplomatic reversals, and deteriorating US fiscal position with substantial tax cuts and growing entitlement obligations

• Foreign investor sentiment has soured significantly, with Bank of America surveys showing bearish dollar sentiment at highest levels since 2006 and foreign ownership of Treasurys declining to 32.9%

• The dollar has emerged as a funding currency for global carry trades, with investors selling dollars to finance positions in higher-yielding emerging market currencies, reflecting declining confidence in US growth exceptionalism

• Despite weakness, the dollar maintains dominance with nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, over 50% of global trade invoicing, and nearly 90% of global foreign exchange transactions

• Incremental de-dollarization signs are emerging, particularly in Asia with ASEAN promoting local currency use and countries like China, India, and South Korea increasing currency swap agreements

• The expanded BRICS bloc is pushing de-dollarization through joint liquidity pools and alternative commodity trading platforms, though internal frictions limit progress

• Central banks have dramatically increased gold purchases, accumulating over 1,000 tons annually for three consecutive years, with gold now representing 20% of global reserves

• The greatest threat to dollar dominance comes from within through fiscal indiscipline, rising debt-to-GDP ratios,

URL: https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/dollars-decline-meets-rising-dedollarization-the-threat-comes-from-within/

3. Gold’s New All-Time High Is Here — Here’s How We’ll Profit

Why: similarity 0.94

Summary: • Gold reached a new all-time high of $3,833 per ounce on September 29, 2025, marking a significant bull run.

• Central banks have increased gold purchases, buying over 1,000 tons annually, more than double pre-2022 levels.

• A record 43% of central banks plan to increase gold reserves, signaling a shift away from dollar dominance.

• The Fed's recent rate cut and projected additional cuts indicate a move towards more accommodative monetary policy.

• Potential return of quantitative easing could lead to high inflation, making gold a crucial hedge against currency debasement.

• Investment banks are predicting gold prices could reach $4,000 or more by 2026, given continued

URL: https://www.crisisinvesting.com/p/golds-new-all-time-high-is-here-heres?publication_id=87095&post_id=174939335&isFreemail=true&r=133f0v&triedRedirect=true

4. The Gold at Fort Knox Was Stolen from Americans | Mises Institute

Why: similarity 0.93

Summary: • President Trump, Elon Musk, and Senator Rand Paul are calling for an audit of US gold reserves at Fort Knox, which haven't been audited in over 40 years, with the US Mint claiming 8,133.46 metric tons without verification

• The article argues that much of the gold at Fort Knox was originally stolen from Americans through FDR's Executive Order 6102, which outlawed private gold ownership and forced citizens to surrender gold coins at below-market prices

• Evidence of this theft includes the fact that Fort Knox gold is primarily lower-quality "coin gold" from melted Depression-era coins, rather than the high-quality gold bars used in international transactions

• The US government defaulted on its gold obligations twice: first in 1934 when it refused to pay World War I Liberty Bonds in gold as promised, and again in 1971 when it defaulted on international obligations under Bretton Woods

• The article contends that US officials lie when claiming "the United States has never defaulted," noting that the government kept gold that should have been paid to bondholders and dollar holders

• The gold reserves represent a "legacy of theft and lies" - originally meant to flow in and out as Americans redeemed dollars for gold, the government instead declared the gold permanently theirs through defaults and broken promises

URL: https://mises.org/mises-wire/gold-fort-knox-was-stolen-americans?

5. The Imminent Restructuring of the Monetary System – Mark E. Jeftovic is The Bombthrower

Why: similarity 0.93

Summary: • The global financial system, built on leverage and fiat expansion since 1913, is unsustainably distorted through derivatives, credit expansion, and hidden leverage, requiring a painful but necessary restructuring

• Trump and Scott Bessent are signaling a multi-step transition to sound money backed by gold, commodities, and Bitcoin, avoiding an immediate collapse that would occur if they simply declared a gold-backed dollar overnight

• Foreign nations (China, Russia, BRICS) have stopped accumulating U.S. Treasuries while U.S. debt reaches 123% of GDP, making debt servicing mathematically unsustainable and forcing monetary restructuring

• Key transition signals include government gold accumulation since 2016-2018, LBMA/COMEX physical shortages, and gold's quiet revaluation without triggering panic

• Centralization of FICC trading by 2025-2026 will force a purge of leverage from the Treasury market, similar to how LIBOR's transition to SOFR caused 2023 bank failures

• Bitcoin serves as either a central bank liquidity tool or escape hatch for early movers, with institutional adoption already underway through BlackRock, Fidelity, and MicroStrategy

• An inevitable market collapse will lead to a new Bretton Woods 2.0 system featuring multi-reserve assets (gold, Bitcoin, commodities) instead of sole fiat reliance

• Key risks include the Fed/Treasury losing control of the unwind, foreign actors' positioning, and early market panic creating domino collapses

• The transition is already under

URL: https://bombthrower.com/the-imminent-restructuring-of-the-monetary-system/#

6. (2) Reverse Logan's Run - by Rudy Havenstein

Why: similarity 0.92

Summary: • The document discusses the potential for governments, particularly the U.S. and Belgium, to finance expenditures by revaluing gold reserves instead of increasing public debt or taxes.

• The U.S. government holds the largest gold reserves globally, which could be revalued from a statutory price of $42.22 per troy ounce to current market values around $3,300.

• Inflation rates, particularly in the housing market, have been significantly high, with existing home inflation averaging 13.4% annually since 2012.

• Aggregate household debt increased by $185 billion in Q2 2025, reaching $18.39 trillion, highlighting a significant rise since the pandemic.

• Delinquency rates for student loans and credit card payments, even among upper-income Americans, have surged, with 10.2% of student debt reported as significantly overdue.

• The author describes a "demographic dystopia," attributing rising living costs to government and Federal Reserve policies that harm younger demographics.

• Inflation is impacting luxury goods, with anecdotes illustrating high spending on items like fashion and premium smoothies, contrasting with broader economic struggles.

• The housing market faces challenges, evidenced by a significant drop in sales and increasing investor purchases, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

• Economic commentary suggests a looming financial reckoning, with concerns over rising deficits and a potential consensus for a new monetary order amidst ongoing fiscal issues.

• The document concludes with reflections on market manipulations through AI trading bots, raising regulatory concerns about the future of financial markets.

URL: https://rudy.substack.com/p/reverse-logans-run?publication_id=234677&post_id=169877917&isFreemail=true&r=133f0v&triedRedirect=true

7. June 2025 Newsletter: 3 Misconceptions About US Debt - Lyn Alden

Why: similarity 0.92

Summary: • **US fiscal deficits will remain large for the foreseeable future**, with the federal government consistently spending more than it receives in tax revenue, creating annual deficits that accumulate into total outstanding debt

• **"We owe it to ourselves" is misleading** - while some debt is held domestically, the $36 trillion federal debt translates to $277,000 per household, and holdings are unequally distributed between institutions, individuals, and foreign entities

• **Selective default has serious consequences** - defaulting on retirees, insurance companies, or banks would cause existential crises and protests, while defaulting on foreign entities ($9 trillion held) would damage US credibility and ability to attract future foreign investment

• **Foreign central banks are buying gold** in response to the US freezing $300 billion in Russian reserves in 2022, seeking assets protected from default and confiscation

• **China holds less than $800 billion in treasuries** (about 5 months of US deficit spending) and represents the highest selective default risk among foreign holders

• **Defaulting on the Fed's $4 trillion in treasuries would be problematic** as the Fed has assets and liabilities, pays interest on bank reserves, and is currently operating at a loss with hundreds of billions in unrealized losses

• **Currency devaluation is the more likely path** than outright default, as seen in the 1930s gold devaluation, 1970s decoupling from gold, and the 40% money supply increase in 2020-2021

URL: https://www.lynalden.com/june-2025-newsletter/

8. Nobody for Fed Chairman - The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity

Why: similarity 0.92

Summary: • President Trump threatens to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell if he doesn't cut interest rates, though he backtracked after stock markets fell; Trump likely won't reappoint Powell when his term ends in May

• Leading candidates to replace Powell include Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett

• The next Fed chairman faces a no-win situation with $37 trillion in national debt, pressure to keep rates low to manage debt payments, and the risk of causing economic meltdowns

• Fed's low interest rate policies weaken the dollar, erode Americans' standard of living, and create bubble-boom-bust cycles since the gold standard ended in 1971

• Reduced demand for Treasury securities forces the Fed to increase purchases, pumping more money into the economy and further devaluing the dollar

• Rising gold prices and cryptocurrency interest reflect concerns about national debt; foreign countries are increasing gold holdings and considering challenging the dollar's reserve currency status

• Congress and Trump criticize Powell for spending $2 billion on Fed headquarters renovations, though this pales compared to harm from inflationary policies

• Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests investigating the entire Federal Reserve institution and potentially supporting "Audit the Fed" legislation

• Ron Paul argues that no person can know correct interest rates, central planning is destructive, and the proper answer to who should be Fed chairman is "nobody"

URL: https://ronpaulinstitute.org/nobody-for-fed-chairman/

## Pointed questions for discussion

- What implications does the shift to gold have for global monetary policy?

- How might this trend affect the future of the U.S. dollar?

- What risks do central banks face by increasing gold reserves?

## Sentiment

Score: 0.80

## Provider

OpenRouter / openai/gpt-4o-mini