https://youtu.be/jV9mEkvJAbE?si=uFVxxyU9nrQtBrp0

https://youtu.be/3lmjY7G1NHg?si=vzaCejKd0-HHiH2K

https://youtu.be/_PJvpq8uOZM?si=AyxpGtdM4sWi2nnv

https://bsky.app/profile/jay.bsky.team/post/3m2hf4ygsnc2e

U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut stated on Saturday that there was "no evidence" that protests in the city amounted to a rebellion or significantly hindered law enforcement, and that the White House's justification was "untethered to the facts," according to https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-judge-temporarily-blocks-trump-administration-deploying-national-guard-2025-10-04/

. The injunction will remain in place until at least October 18, pending further litigation.

"The President's determination was simply untethered to the facts," Immergut wrote.

What are the facts, Immergut?

Here are some of the latest:

Federal agents deploy tear gas to repel anti-ICE crowd blocking ICE facility’s driveway in Portland, Oregon.

🎥: https://twitter.com/Julio_Rosas11?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

— TheBlaze (@theblaze) https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1974574838053494799?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

🚨 BREAKING: DHS has deployed BLACKHAWKS over the ICE facility in Portland, as rioters get tear-gassed and pepperballed by agents

Following my wrongful arrest, Secretary Noem promised to SURGE additional DHS resources into the area.

Looks like she’s following through! NO MERCY! https://t.co/sBej0cW1h6

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1974591900146659654?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Breaking: The first of the Portland Antifa ICE rioters has been federally convicted.

Trantifa militant Julie Winters, formerly Christopher Hudson, has pleaded guilty to felony intimidation of a federal officer and resisting arrest. Other serious charges were dropped as part of… https://t.co/tMs7sAXnMr

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1974260079823028236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Portland (Oct. 4) — Far-left anti-government extremists have surrounded the ICE facility in an attempt to storm the building. They are encouraged to get arrested for the cameras and will have immediate access to cash and free lawyers. https://t.co/RXgB1M6XBn

— Andy Ngo (@MrAndyNgo) https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1974571368592323023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told Reuters, "President Trump exercised his lawful authority to protect federal assets and personnel in Portland following violent riots and attacks on law enforcement — we expect to be vindicated by a higher court."

The White House filed a notice of appeal to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals late Saturday night.

?itok=1txzE6U2

Portland Mayor Keith Wilson told reporters that his city was peaceful and "this narrative was manufactured."

Yet local police appear to be protecting domestic terrorists, such as Antifa warriors, while arresting journalists and conservatives:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/portland-police-arrest-journalist-not-antifa-prompting-top-trump-officials-investigate

What Democrats fear...

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-young-masculine-men-what-democrats-fear-rally-front-portland-ice-chanting-usa

Oregon's Democratic Attorney General Dan Rayfield filed the lawsuit after Trump announced plans to https://www.zerohedge.com/political/oregon-governor-says-theres-no-insurrection-tells-trump-stand-down

to Portland to "protect federal immigration facilities from domestic terrorists."

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/antifa-night-ngos-day-left-wing-political-machine-runs-247-outside-portland-ice-facility

The state argued the action unlawfully seized control of its National Guard and violated the 10th Amendment, emphasizing that Portland's protests have been peaceful. Immergut agreed that Oregon is likely to prevail, warning that Trump's legal approach could allow a president to deploy troops "virtually anywhere at any time," thereby undermining the separation of civil and military authority.

Meanwhile, leftist Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois on Saturday warned that President Trump was preparing to send 300 Guard troops to Chicago in the very near term.

And take a look at the chaos just yesterday in the crime-ridden sanctuary city...

"Law enforcement under siege in Chicago as agitators hurl rocks, bottles at federal vehicles departing violent protest near scene of apparent coordinated attack on ICE officers in Brighton Park earlier today," Border Hawk wrote on X.

BREAKING: Law enforcement under siege in Chicago as agitators hurl rocks, bottles at federal vehicles departing violent protest near scene of apparent coordinated attack on ICE officers in Brighton Park earlier today

Follow Border Hawk and https://twitter.com/Wid_Lyman?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

— Border Hawk (@BorderHawkNews) https://twitter.com/BorderHawkNews/status/1974590806565785798?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Kristi Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, wrote on X, "Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon. I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way. If you see a law enforcement officer today, thank them."

Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon.

I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way.

If you see a law…

— Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) https://twitter.com/KristiNoem/status/1974553061851849049?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Chaos.

🚨 BREAKING: Chicago - Riots are forming in Chicago following a targeted attack on federal agents where a woman was shoot by agents.

Local police have been accused of leaving Federal Agents cornered and not helping.

Chicago PD & Federal Agents are on the scenes of a reported… https://t.co/sKjp2olpbX

— The Questionable Gardner (@T_Q_Gardner) https://twitter.com/T_Q_Gardner/status/1974597272621957123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Here's one of the DHS vehicles that was rammed by the woman who was shot. I warned showed the videos where people in Chicago were boxing federal agents in and nothing was done about it other than a few tough talking appearances. This is the result. https://t.co/kkBZ1nnNE8

— Kim "Katie" USA (@KimKatieUSA) https://twitter.com/KimKatieUSA/status/1974646566456893930?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The attack yesterday in Chicago underscores the dangers law enforcement officers face every day as they remove criminal illegal aliens from American neighborhoods.

The violence and dehumanization of these men and women who are simply enforcing the law must stop. We are praying… https://t.co/3K7uxuG2SI

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/1974833638291255742?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Headlines:

?itok=QaSFveDH

?itok=zXbZ6Wv0

. . .

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden

Sun, 10/05/2025 - 11:05

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/judge-blocks-trumps-portland-guard-deployment-amid-antifa-violence-ice-targeted-chicago

Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/race-to-the-dung-heap

As I https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/crypto-will-cause-the-next-trillon?utm_source=publication-search

become an essentially unregulated $4 trillion slush-y money market fund reminiscent of 2008.

But watching the headlines coming out of commercial real estate, private credit and subprime auto over the last week or two — and I’m not certain we don’t have a new leader, or leaders, in the nationally televised Race To The Financial Dung Heap™.

Let’s try to make this case as clear and as simple as possible, with examples and charts for people with very short attention spans, like myself.

First, commercial real estate. When the pandemic hit, it didn’t just empty restaurants and stadiums—it hollowed out the very premise of office real estate.

Remote work turned once-bulletproof towers into stranded assets almost overnight, leaving landlords with vacant floors, plunging rents, and billions in debt that no longer penciled out. We still haven’t recovered.

By mid-2025, the U.S. office vacancy rate had climbed to a record 20.7%, according to Moody’s Analytics.¹

?itok=lEKZbgIU

New York was in the middle of converting 4.1 million square feet of offices into housing, the most since 2008.⁴ CMBS delinquency rates had risen for six straight months through August, hitting 7.29% overall and 11.66% for office loans, both records.² ³

?itok=eV69zILZ

Reappraisals continue to be brutal, one headline after another. In New York, the 18-story office tower at 440 Ninth Avenue, near Hudson Yards, was sold in April 2025 for just over $100 million, a 62% plunge from the $269 million it fetched in 2018.

In San Jose, the Sobrato Office Tower changed hands in May 2025 for $63.7 million, down nearly 61% from its $163.1 million assessed value.

Houston saw Chevron unload the former Noble Energy headquarters in June 2025 for $18.2 million, a fire-sale compared with a previous valuation near $130 million.

🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43

In San Francisco, a vacant downtown tower at 199 Fremont Street was sold in July 2025 for $111.3 million, well below the levels comparable buildings had commanded only a few years earlier. And in August 2025, Manhattan’s One Worldwide Plaza was reappraised at $345 million—just 20% of its 2018 valuation—leaving lenders facing potential losses of nearly half a billion dollars.

Banks are not immune. As of the second quarter of 2025, unrealized losses on securities were still near $400 billion.⁵ Regulators had already warned that non-bank CRE lending—the shadow financing that filled the void left by banks—could transmit and amplify shocks across the system.⁶

MSCI data showed distress had climbed to $116 billion by early 2025, the highest in a decade.⁷ Even the multifamily sector, long considered the safest corner, was showing strain.

From there we move to private credit, the $1.7 trillion darling of institutional allocators, which has been running into its own wall. In 2024, the default rate for mid-sized U.S. companies financed by private credit had more than doubled to 8.1%, up from 3.6% in 2023, according to Fitch.⁸

?itok=jQfrgIs3

Funds had kept many troubled borrowers alive with covenant waivers, extend-and-pretend refinancings, and payment-in-kind tweaks. But when loans had stayed in breach for multiple quarters, lenders often moved to take the keys.

One day last week I was sitting at a bar on Park Ave. and two younger gentleman from the banking world sat next to me. They looked late 20s/early 30s and started to talk shop, so I joined in, leaning over and asking candidly after their second martini: “What’s it really like out there for CRE and private credit?”

Their affect changed and the answer was visible. One guy just shook his head. The other said, verbatim, “Everyone is in breach of their covenants”.

“What happens when people go to hit the bid when everyone’s marks are all inflated,” I asked the guy closest to me. “We’re going to need a bailout,” he said.

And it’s not just drunk 28 year old junior bankers saying this. Look at this hot-shit PIMCO executive on CNBC a couple days ago, essentially admitting that both public and private credit markets are flashing warning signs: public bonds are seeing high-profile defaults where companies can’t restructure effectively, while in private credit many borrowers are already unable to service cash interest and are resorting to “payment in kind” just to stay afloat.

He says borrowers are being forced to choose between costly but flexible private loans or cheaper public debt that becomes unworkable in distress, highlighting growing fragility across the system. At the same time, asset managers are under fee pressure and leaning on efficiency tools like AI just to manage risk.

Taken together, it points to rising defaults, strained borrowers, and lenders tightening terms—the classic setup for a credit crunch.

There have been clues along the way that this was happening. In 2024, corporate bankruptcies reached their highest level since 2010, and private-credit managers—from Blackstone to midsize players—expanded workout teams aggressively. Compensation packages for senior restructuring professionals ran as high as $1.5 million.¹⁰

?itok=iKQkLIwf

Distressed-for-control transactions, in which lenders seize ownership through debt positions, had tripled compared with pre-2022 levels.¹⁰ Liquidity worries surfaced too: by September 2025, some funds were resorting to selling loan portfolios in the secondary market to support reported yields.¹¹

?itok=os9hqFWt

Even the Boston Fed had raised the question of whether private credit’s growth posed systemic risk, pointing out its jump from $46 billion in 2000 to about $1 trillion by 2023.¹² The late September bankruptcy of First Brands, with over $10 billion of debt, off-balance sheet liabilities and questions about whether receivables had been double-pledged, underscored the fragility.¹³

First Brands is, of course, an auto parts maker, which leads this horse directly towards other financial nuclear horse piss water.

Delinquencies on auto loans 90 days past due reached 5% in the second quarter of 2025, up more than 12% from a year earlier.¹⁶ Net losses in subprime auto ABS were running at 9.44% as of January.¹⁴ Recovery rates were weak because wholesale used-car prices remained high, with the Manheim index still up 2.2% year over year in September.¹⁵

?itok=tS6PisSk

, which is also a great read.

Also in September 2025, Tricolor Holdings, a major subprime auto lender focused on low-credit and undocumented borrowers, filed for bankruptcy and said it would liquidate. Federal prosecutors were investigating allegations that the company had pledged the same collateral multiple times to warehouse lenders.¹⁸ ¹⁹ Big banks including Fifth Third, JPMorgan, and Barclays were left staring at hundreds of millions in potential losses.

?itok=5NejSdvy

Earlier in August, another subprime lender, Automotive Credit Corp., had abruptly stopped making new loans.²⁰ The subprime auto ABS market, at roughly $80 billion, is far smaller than subprime housing ever was—but the echoes are unmistakable.

As usual, the easy money of the past 5 years only hid the risks; it didn’t erase them. By 2025, the AAA labels, perpetual funds, and clever underwriting had given way to a harsher reality: empty lobbies, mounting defaults, and repos in the driveway.

As it relates to how I invest personally, this setup makes me want to avoid any names in private credit (i.e. APO, BX, OWL, PRIV and the likes), in regional banking (KRE or any of its components), in the buy now pay later space which I highlighted 2 years ago and was way early on (SOFI, UPST, AFRM, Klarna, etc.) or subprime autos (CACC, CVNA, ALLY, etc.).

Ultimately my friends may get the bailout they talked about that night at the bar. But that would only come after a sharp ‘shit hits the fan’ type deleveraging that sees stock prices fall quickly, prompting the rescue.

Moody’s Analytics, “US office vacancy reaches record high,” July 8, 2025.

Trepp, “CMBS Delinquency Rate Rises for Sixth Straight Month to 7.29%,” Sept. 24, 2025.

Multifamily Dive, “CMBS delinquencies hit 7.29%, a post-pandemic record,” Sept. 16, 2025.

Financial Times, “New York leads office-to-housing conversions,” Sept. 29, 2025.

FDIC, “Quarterly Banking Profile Q2 2025,” Aug. 25, 2025.

Financial Stability Board, “Non-bank CRE financing risks,” June 19, 2025; Bloomberg, “Shadow CRE lending may amplify bank shocks,” June 21, 2025.

MSCI Real Assets, “US commercial real estate distress update,” Aug. 20, 2025.

Fitch Ratings, “Private credit default rate doubled in 2024,” Mar. 3, 2025; Fitch, “Private credit outlook,” May 30, 2025.

Preqin/Brookfield, “Private credit to $1.7 trillion,” 2025; Deloitte, “Private credit survey,” 2025.

Wall Street Journal Pro, Isaac Taylor, “Private-Credit Firms Expand Restructuring Teams Amid Bankruptcy Surge,” Mar. 12, 2025.

Bloomberg, “Private credit leans on secondaries to support liquidity optics,” Sept. 4, 2025.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, “Is private credit a systemic risk?,” May 21, 2025.

Financial Times, “First Brands bankruptcy raises red flags for private debt,” Sept. 29–30, 2025.

S&P Global Ratings, “US Subprime Auto ABS Tracker,” Mar. 10, 2025.

Cox Automotive / Manheim, “Used vehicle value index,” Sept. 17–22, 2025.

New York Fed / LendingTree, “Household Debt and Credit Report,” Sept. 23, 2025.

Experian / Auto Remarketing, “Auto finance state of the market,” Aug. 28, 2025.

Bloomberg, Carmen Arroyo, Isabella Farr, Scott Carpenter, “Subprime Auto Lender Collapse Delivers Blow to Risky Debt Market,” Sept. 11, 2025.

Financial Times, “Tricolor bankruptcy and alleged fraud probe,” Sept. 10, 2025.

Auto Finance News, “Automotive Credit Corp pauses new originations,” Aug. 7–8, 2025.

QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about

with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden

Sun, 10/05/2025 - 10:30

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/race-financial-dung-heap

https://youtu.be/03pKMOt3TCQ?si=aO7WpXVsKXk0YAdZ

https://youtu.be/LwYY1CuAnRY?si=qC0VIp1LYLJGgwpC

Dendera lights https://youtu.be/g507G2Ei2To?si=Bhxxck3qIGkVT7-u

https://youtube.com/shorts/YVFxX0eTvbg?si=Gew8sQ-f_2lr6Qrg

https://x.com/batteryvoltas/status/1974833120248512980?s=46

https://open.spotify.com/track/3D3DJLdJKgYiRq3izO5p0q?si=JIbBSNqCSbiji7oQx5TTGw

https://x.com/kevin_mckernan/status/1974821167857877416?s=46&t=qOgY0pZFDhZf47-9Z5k7iw

Georgia's ruling party Georgian Dream has gone so far as to describe unrest in the capital is an attempt to stage a coup in the country. "This is a direct attempt at a coup. They literally broke into the presidential palace," the ruling party's general secretary and Tbilisi Mayor, Kakha Kaladze, has https://tass.com/world/2025253

.

?itok=j8cOZkLi

Opposition parties have charged Georgian Dream with being too close to Russia and running the country based on authoritarian rule, and so called for the mass boycott of the municipal elections.

Thousands of protesters were seen in Freedom Square and along the central Rustaveli Avenue. The flag of the European Union was being waved prominently alongside Georgian flags, which for ruling officials has raised the spectre of the influence of Western 'anti-Russian' NGO's.

Protesters had at one point set fires, blocked roads, and engaged in confrontations with police - resulting in riot control measures being deployed. Russian media https://www.rt.com/russia/625905-mass-protest-hits-georgian-capital/

:

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze reiterated his claim that the protests were “organized by foreign intelligence agencies” to overthrow the government.

He vowed an “uncompromising” stance against lawbreakers, stating that “anyone who participates in operations ordered by foreign special services will be given a just punishment,” according to First Channel.

🧵🇬🇪 UPRISING Tbilisi, Georgia 🇬🇪

Mass protests are taking place on the occasion of the local parliament elections:

"The demonstrators have completely blocked traffic on Melikishvili Avenue. They accuse the authorities in power, including the founder of the ruling party… https://t.co/wvn4i8X8u6

— Culture War Report (@CultureWar2020) https://twitter.com/CultureWar2020/status/1974518066487996460?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

By evening, groups were seen marching toward the presidential palace and tried to breach the perimeter fence, after which the government declared it an illegal gathering.

RT writes further, "People began gathering in the center of Tbilisi Saturday evening. Later, one of the organizers urged demonstrators to take the keys to the presidential residence into their own hands. They stormed the property and managed to break into the courtyard of the residence."

Protesters earlier en route to the standoff at parliament and the presidential grounds...

Tens of thousands of people are continuing to stream in to Tbilisi's central Rustaveli Avenu, heading towards the protest outside the Georgian Parliament.

🔴 Live updates:https://t.co/W8TRQOhCF5

— OC Media (@OCMediaorg) https://twitter.com/OCMediaorg/status/1974459913578668469?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The country of some 3.7 million people has been beset by accusations of election fraud under ruling officials. These charges grew more fierce in the wake of last year's contested parliamentary elections, during which time the government froze the EU accession process.

Once again a former Soviet satellite state finds itself in the center of an 'east-west' struggle involving European integration on one side, and the Russian sphere of economic and political influence on the other.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden

Sun, 10/05/2025 - 07:35

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/georgias-govt-condemns-coup-attempt-after-pro-eu-protesters-tried-storm-presidential

https://x.com/marttimalmi/status/1760886692469162491?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1760886692469162491%7Ctwgr%5E239662a29c7387ee680bbd155b00ad240d4247a1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Funchainedcrypto.com%2Fsatoshis-emails-to-a-bitcoin-co-developer-the-5-most-revealing-quotes%2F

https://mmalmi.github.io/satoshi/