variolation aspirational

with a side of hormesis

agreed, if one is holding fiat, and believes, like me, that it is a mathematical certainty that Bitcoin is worth 1000 or more times gold, then one should move all in to Bitcoin asap, else risk missing the few huge run-up days.

if one receives fiat every week or two, then DCA that into Bitcoin as that cash flows in (ex, $100 every Friday)

cash flow

recruit, but speld in a hip way

rekrut

rekruit

rekrut

/jk

store brand medical tape for sensitive skin

just need a tiny piece

no more nasty desert mouth in the morning, gotta be much healthier to avoid that

for new folks:

good time to learn about and do:

consolidate small utxos

coinjoin non-anonymous utxos

move to deep cold offline storage

donate small utxos

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settled on primal because wallet is so convenient

gain inspiration from seeing the tiny closets in old houses :)

and we have clothes washing machines now... :)

🫂

🫂

busy, but intend to investigate...

Breedlove had him on last week. intriguing, so I had to look it up.

from perplexity.ai

Are there any historical cases where tax protestors were successful

The claim that tax protesters have achieved meaningful legal victories against federal income tax requirements is largely unfounded, but a few cases yielded limited procedural successes while ultimately affirming tax obligations:

### Partial Successes in Court

1. **Vivien Kellems (1948)**

- Refused to withhold payroll taxes for employees, arguing the IRS overstepped its authority.

- The IRS seized her bank account, but she later recovered the funds through litigation[1].

- **Outcome**: While she claimed victory, her case did not challenge the constitutionality of tax withholding, which courts upheld in subsequent rulings[1].

2. **John L. Cheek (1980s–1990s)**

- Argued wages weren’t taxable income and that he lacked "willfulness" to evade taxes.

- The Supreme Court overturned his initial conviction (*Cheek v. United States*, 1991), ruling jurors must assess whether a defendant’s belief in tax laws being invalid was a "good-faith misunderstanding"[4].

- **Outcome**: Cheek was retried, convicted again, and imprisoned. The ruling clarified that sincere (but unreasonable) beliefs could negate criminal intent, though constitutional challenges remain inadmissible[4].

3. **Vernice Kuglin (2000s)**

- Faced criminal charges for tax evasion but avoided jail by arguing her constitutional misinterpretation was non-willful.

- **Outcome**: With legal counsel specializing in protester cases, she received probation and civil penalties instead of incarceration[2].

### Key Limitations

- **No Constitutional Challenges Sustained**: Courts consistently reject arguments that the 16th Amendment or income tax laws are invalid. For example, Arthur J. Porth’s Thirteenth Amendment claim failed (*Porth v. Brodrick*), as did Irwin Schiff’s "income = corporate profit" theory[1][4].

- **Temporary Delays, Not Exemptions**: Protesters like Kent Hovind (10-year sentence) or Jack Ray Carr (6-year sentence) delayed consequences but faced eventual prosecution[1].

- **Civil Penalties Remain**: Even when avoiding criminal charges (e.g., Kuglin), protesters still owed back taxes, interest, and fines[2][4].

### Historical Context

- **Tax Strikes**: Movements like the 1931–1933 Chicago tax strike disrupted collections but failed to invalidate tax laws[3].

- **Frivolous Arguments**: Courts classify claims about "voluntary" taxes or non-income wages as legally meritless, with penalties for misuse[1][4].

In summary, while a handful of protesters achieved narrow procedural wins (e.g., jury instruction adjustments or reduced sentences), no court has upheld core tax protester arguments. The IRS and judiciary maintain that federal income tax filing and payment obligations are unequivocally mandatory[1][4].

Citations:

[1] Tax protester history in the United States - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_protester_history_in_the_United_States

[2] Case Studies: Winning Against The IRS In Court (3 Famous Cases) https://silvertaxgroup.com/winning-against-the-irs-case-studies/

[3] The History Of Tax Resistance: How Pocketbook Worries Became ... https://www.forbes.com/sites/taxnotes/2024/01/22/the-history-of-tax-resistance-how-pocketbook-worries-became-ideological/

[4] U.S. Supreme Court Overturns Tax Protester's Convictions - RFPA https://sb.rfpa.org/u-s-supreme-court-overturns-tax-protesters-convictions/

[5] Tracing the Opposition to Taxes in America https://www.splcenter.org/resources/reports/tracing-opposition-taxes-america/

[6] Cheek v. United States - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheek_v._United_States

[7] Tax Protest Movement - ADL https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/tax-protest-movement

[8] Tax protester - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_protester

[9] Protesters Win a Case Over I.R.S. - The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/24/business/protesters-win-a-case-over-irs.html

[10] Tax protester statutory arguments - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_protester_statutory_arguments

[11] [PDF] Joseph R. Banister - IRS https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-utl/banister.pdf

[12] Taxing Times: The Trials and Tribulations of Tax Resistance https://www.library.illinois.edu/hpnl/blog/taxing-times-the-trials-and-tribulations-of-tax-resistance/

[13] List of historical acts of tax resistance - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historical_acts_of_tax_resistance

[14] Nay Nay We Won't Pay - Evaders, Protesters and Resisters Versus IRS https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterjreilly/2015/03/27/nay-nay-we-wont-pay-evaders-protesters-and-resisters-versus-irs/

[15] The Truth About Frivolous Tax Arguments — Section I (D to E) - IRS https://www.irs.gov/privacy-disclosure/the-truth-about-frivolous-tax-arguments-section-i-d-to-e

[16] 7 Key Tax Protests That Shook America - ThinkAdvisor https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2013/03/14/7-key-tax-protests-that-shook-america/

[17] Anti-tax law evasion schemes - Law and arguments (Section III) - IRS https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/anti-tax-law-evasion-schemes-law-and-arguments-section-iii

[18] History of War Tax Resistance - War Resisters League https://www.warresisters.org/history-war-tax-resistance/

[19] Woman Beats IRS in Court Over Income Tax Protest - Fox News https://www.foxnews.com/story/woman-beats-irs-in-court-over-income-tax-protest

[20] Internal Revenue Service's Efforts Against Illegal Tax Protesters https://www.gao.gov/products/115485

[21] The Truth About Frivolous Tax Arguments — Section III - IRS https://www.irs.gov/privacy-disclosure/the-truth-about-frivolous-tax-arguments-section-iii

[22] What is an 'illegal tax protester,' and why can't the IRS use that term ... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/federal-eye/wp/2014/09/11/what-is-an-illegal-tax-protester-and-why-cant-the-irs-use-that-term-any-more/

[23] Tax Protesters Sail on Seas of Fantasy - Faucher Law https://faucherlaw.com/tax-protesters-sail-on-seas-of-fantasy/

[24] Consequences - National War Tax Resistance Coordinating ... https://nwtrcc.org/resist/consequences/

[25] Tax Protest Movement - ADL https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/tax-protest-movement

[26] The Supreme Court Declined a Protestors' Rights Case. Here's What ... https://www.aclu.org/news/criminal-law-reform/the-supreme-court-declined-a-protestors-rights-case-heres-what-you-need-to-know

[27] Supreme Court Ruling Supports Tax Protester - The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/1991/01/09/business/supreme-court-ruling-supports-tax-protester.html

[28] [PDF] Criminal Tax Manual 40.00 -- ILLEGAL TAX PROTESTERS https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/tax/legacy/2006/02/28/40ctax.pdf

[29] Tax Protester FAQ - Evans-Legal.Com https://evans-legal.com/dan/tpfaq.html

[30] [PDF] Study of Tax Court Cases In Which the IRS Conceded the Taxpayer ... https://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Research-Studies-Study-of-Tax-Court-Cases-in-Which-the-IRS-Conceded-the-Taxpayer-was-Entitled-to-Earned-Income-Tax-Credit-EITC.pdf

better from Google Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking Experiment, though they hide cutting off your finger behind the words "Tricking you...". Let's call social-bio-mechanical-engineering from now on.

This is a fascinating and complex question! There's no single definitive dollar amount, but we can break down the factors to give you a realistic understanding. It's not just about the Bitcoin value itself, but also about *who* you are and *why* a nation-state would target you.

Here's a breakdown of the elements to consider:

**1. The Immense Difficulty of Brute-Forcing BIP39 Passphrases:**

* **12 words = High Entropy:** A 12-word BIP39 passphrase, drawn from a 2048-word dictionary, has roughly 2¹²⁸ possible combinations. This is astronomically large.

* **Current Computing Power:** Even with massive computing resources, brute-forcing this space is currently considered practically impossible within any reasonable timeframe (years, decades, even centuries with current technology).

* **Nation-State Resources:** Nation-states have access to significant computing power, potentially including custom ASICs, supercomputers, and cloud computing resources. They could theoretically dedicate more resources than any individual or criminal group.

**However, Brute-Forcing is Still Extremely Expensive & Time-Consuming, Even for Nation-States.**

**2. Factors Beyond Just Bitcoin Value:**

A nation-state isn't just going to target you *solely* for the Bitcoin if brute-forcing is required. The cost and risk of such an operation are immense. They would need other compelling reasons:

* **Intelligence Gathering:** Are you a person of interest for intelligence purposes? Do you hold sensitive information beyond just Bitcoin? This could include:

* **Political figures:** Dissidents, opposition leaders, activists.

* **Journalists:** Especially those investigating sensitive topics.

* **Business leaders:** In strategic industries or with geopolitical importance.

* **Military or intelligence personnel:** Even if retired, they might be targets for information.

* **Individuals involved in illicit activities:** (Though this is a grey area - nation-states might prefer other methods for this).

* **Geopolitical Leverage:** Could gaining control of your Bitcoin (and potentially your identity/information linked to it) give them geopolitical leverage? This is less likely unless you are a very high-profile individual.

* **Disruption or Sabotage:** Could compromising your wallet disrupt something they want to disrupt? Again, unlikely unless you are connected to critical infrastructure or highly sensitive systems (which should not rely on a personal Bitcoin wallet for security).

* **Demonstration of Capability:** In rare cases, a nation-state might want to demonstrate its cyber capabilities. Cracking a seemingly "uncrackable" passphrase could be a form of signaling or intimidation. This is less about the *value* of your Bitcoin and more about projecting power.

**3. The "Worth It" Threshold - A Dynamic and Subjective Calculation:**

* **Cost vs. Benefit Analysis:** For a nation-state, the "worth it" calculation involves weighing the potential benefit (Bitcoin value + other factors) against the immense cost, time, and risk of a brute-force attack.

* **Opportunity Cost:** Nation-states have limited resources. Are there easier, more lucrative, or strategically important targets they could pursue instead? Brute-forcing your passphrase is likely to be a very low-efficiency operation compared to other cyber activities.

* **Risk of Detection and Retaliation:** Attributing a brute-force attack, while difficult, is not impossible. A nation-state undertaking such an operation would have to consider the potential diplomatic or retaliatory consequences if discovered.

**4. Estimating a Hypothetical Value Threshold (Very Rough and Speculative):**

Considering the immense cost and effort of brute-forcing, and the alternative methods available to nation-states (phishing, keylogging, social engineering, software vulnerabilities, hardware compromises – which are *far* more likely attack vectors), the Bitcoin value alone would likely need to be **extremely high, likely in the hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars** to *solely* justify a dedicated brute-force attempt on a 12-word BIP39 passphrase.

**However, remember this is highly speculative and depends heavily on the factors in point #2.**

**It's more likely they would target you if:**

* **You are a high-profile individual with geopolitical significance.** In this case, even a smaller Bitcoin balance could be a *component* of a larger operation aimed at intelligence gathering or leverage.

* **Your Bitcoin is exceptionally large AND you possess other highly valuable intelligence.** The Bitcoin becomes the "cherry on top" of a broader intelligence operation.

**5. Important Caveats and Real-World Considerations:**

* **Focus on Easier Attacks:** Nation-states are far more likely to use easier and cheaper attack vectors than brute-forcing. This includes:

* **Targeted Phishing:** Crafting highly convincing phishing attacks to steal your passphrase.

* **Keylogging/Malware:** Compromising your devices to record your keystrokes.

* **Social Engineering:** Tricking you into revealing your passphrase through manipulation.

* **Software/Hardware Vulnerabilities:** Exploiting weaknesses in your wallet software or hardware.

* **Supply Chain Attacks:** Compromising hardware before it even reaches you.

* **Brute-Force is a Last Resort:** Brute-force would be an absolute last resort if all other methods have failed and the target is exceptionally high-value.

* **Quantum Computing (Future Threat):** While currently not a practical threat to BIP39 security, advancements in quantum computing *could* theoretically reduce the cost of brute-forcing in the future. However, this is still highly speculative and years away.

**In Conclusion:**

It's extremely unlikely a nation-state would target you *solely* to brute-force your 12-word BIP39 passphrase just for the Bitcoin, unless:

* **Your Bitcoin balance is astronomically large (hundreds of millions or billions).**

* **You are a person of significant geopolitical interest, and the Bitcoin is a secondary, but still valuable, component of a larger operation.**

For most individuals, even with substantial Bitcoin holdings, the risk of a nation-state brute-forcing your passphrase is practically negligible. **You should be far more concerned about phishing, malware, social engineering, and other simpler attack vectors.**

**Focus your security efforts on:**

* **Strong passphrase generation and secure storage (offline, hardware wallet).**

* **Being extremely vigilant against phishing and social engineering.**

* **Keeping your software and devices secure.**

* **Using reputable and secure wallet software and hardware.**

By focusing on these practical security measures, you will be far better protected against the *real* threats, which are not (currently) nation-state brute-force attacks on your BIP39 passphrase.

from perplexity.ai, a bit hand-wavy...:

In 2025, Bitcoin's value has significantly increased, with current prices around $103,839[4]. Looking forward 20 years, the decision to upgrade from 12 to 24 BIP39 seed words for protecting generational wealth depends on several factors, including the security level and the amount of wealth being protected.

For a simple middle-class American in 2025, considering the potential future growth of Bitcoin, it would be prudent to upgrade from 12 to 24 BIP39 seed words when their Bitcoin holdings reach a value of approximately $500,000 to $1,000,000. This recommendation is based on the following considerations:

1. Increased security: 24-word seed phrases offer significantly higher security than 12-word phrases. A 24-word seed phrase has 256 bits of entropy compared to 128 bits for a 12-word phrase, making it exponentially more secure[5].

2. Future value projections: Some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025[6]. Given this potential growth trajectory, a $500,000 to $1,000,000 Bitcoin holding in 2025 could become substantially more valuable over the next 20 years.

3. Generational wealth protection: As the value of Bitcoin holdings increases, the importance of securing it for future generations also grows. The additional security provided by a 24-word seed phrase becomes more crucial for larger amounts of wealth.

4. Potential for long-term appreciation: With predictions of Bitcoin potentially reaching $350,000 by 2025 according to some experts[2], the value of Bitcoin holdings could increase significantly over the next two decades, making enhanced security measures more important.

It's important to note that while 12-word seed phrases are still considered secure for most users, the decision to upgrade to 24 words provides an extra layer of protection for more substantial holdings, especially when considering long-term, generational wealth preservation.

Citations:

[1] https://bringin.xyz/blog/learn/what-are-bip39-seed-words/

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-robert-kiyosakis-bullish-2025-160900772.html

[3] https://vault12.com/learn/crypto-security-basics/what-is-bip39/

[4] https://watcher.guru/news/why-2025-could-be-bitcoins-defining-year-according-to-a-u-s-senator

[5] https://tangem.com/en/blog/post/seed-phrase-faq/

[6] https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/01/01/what-is-bitcoins-price-prediction-for-2025/

[7] https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1598e7e/what_is_a_bip39_seed_phrase_a_few_tips_for/

[8] https://blog.areabitcoin.co/bip39/

follow-up:

As of 2025, cracking a 12-word BIP39 seed phrase remains practically impossible for even well-funded attackers. The cost to attempt such an attack would be astronomical, far exceeding the value of any potential cryptocurrency holdings.

A 12-word seed phrase provides 128 bits of entropy, resulting in 2^128 (approximately 3.4 x 10^38) possible combinations[1][3]. Even with the world's fastest supercomputers, it would take an unfathomable amount of time and resources to brute-force this many combinations.

To put this into perspective:

1. The fastest supercomputer would take approximately 9.40 x 10^65 years to brute-force a 24-word seed phrase[4]. A 12-word phrase, while less secure, would still require an impractical amount of time.

2. The number of possible 12-word combinations (5.44 x 10^39) far exceeds the number of stars in the known universe (70 x 10^23)[3].

Given these factors, the cost to crack a 12-word seed phrase in 2025 would effectively be infinite, as it's not feasible with current or near-future technology.

Projecting 20 years into the future (2045):

While technological advancements, including potential quantum computing breakthroughs, may reduce the time required for cracking attempts, it's unlikely to make 12-word seed phrases vulnerable within this timeframe. However, as a precautionary measure, many experts recommend upgrading to 24-word seed phrases for long-term security[2][5].

It's important to note that the real risks to cryptocurrency security often come from other vectors, such as social engineering, phishing attacks, or improper storage of seed phrases[2][5]. In 2024, hackers stole $1.38 billion in crypto through various methods, highlighting the importance of overall security practices rather than focusing solely on the theoretical possibility of cracking seed phrases[6].

Citations:

[1] https://cryptoken-shop.com/how-likely-is-it-that-a-seed-phrase-will-be-guessed-or-cracked/

[2] https://magazine.mindplex.ai/how-to-keep-your-crypto-portfolio-safe-in-2025/

[3] https://datarecovery.com/rd/what-are-the-odds-of-someone-getting-the-same-bitcoin-seed-phrase/

[4] https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1eem50b/why_the_fastest_supercomputer_cant_crack_your/

[5] https://cryptoken-shop.com/why-do-you-only-need-the-first-4-letters-of-a-bip39-seed-phrase/

[6] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/09/hackers-stole-twice-as-much-crypto-in-the-first-half-of-2024.html

[7] https://www.blockplate.com/pages/bip-39-wordlist

[8] https://www.bitdegree.org/crypto/news/australian-cops-crack-seed-phrase-confiscate-6-4m-in-crypto

trying to think of one confident to whose public key I could encrypt some family secrets...zero, not sure I know any friend or family who can open a terminal on their Macbooks :(

just tested a MacBook within reach...gpg not installed :(

so awkward and uncomfortable

Abbott and Costello

first one to get audited, let the rest of us know how it goes

good reminder

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