#Bitcoin the birth of financial freedom

#Bitcoin is rock solid

#Bitcoin you want to live it

#Bitcoin $30k

Bitcoin broke the $30,000 mark for the first time since June. This is evidenced by the shocks and collapses of banks in the Euro-American circuit and the related rescue actions of central banks

The oldest and most widespread cryptocurrency, bitcoin, broke the psychological threshold of $30,000 today. This happened for the first time since last June. Thus, Bitcoin found itself at almost double its price from last November, when it fell below $15,500. Since the beginning of this year, he has already scored over 80 percent.

At the same time, the predominantly technological Nasdaq 100 stock index has added "only" less than twenty percent since the beginning of the year. At the same time, in recent years, Bitcoin has shown a fairly clear tendency to move in a certain tandem with technology stocks. So this year, that's not quite the case, as Bitcoin significantly outperforms tech stocks. On the other hand, it still hasn't returned to even half the price from the time of its all-time record high, which it reached in November 2021, when it was sold for almost $69,000.

Today's crossing of the $30,000 mark is nevertheless an important milestone, both from the point of view of fundamental and technical analysis. The value of $30,000 represents the resistance line, and Bitcoin gathered strength to overcome it for three weeks in a row. This indicates a fairly convincing return of investor confidence in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin broke the threshold for the first time since last summer's bankruptcy of the crypto-credit company Celsius Network, for the first time since the November crash of the FTX exchange, and finally for the first time since the tightening of the attitude of the American authorities towards the entire crypto scene. Investors thus trust Bitcoin again to an increasing extent even after these crashes, thereby marginalizing their long-term impact.

The recent upheavals and collapses of banks in the Euro-American circuit testify to Bitcoin. The vulnerability of the US banking system increased significantly in connection with the fall of Silicon Valley Bank in March, according to a recently published study published by the US National Bureau of Economic Research. According to her, almost 190 banks in the USA may find themselves in a state of collapse.

At the same time, possible further falls and shocks of the banks of the Euro-American circuit would very likely lead to a further increase in the price of bitcoin and with it many other cryptocurrencies, because they undermine the trust of the general public in traditional banking and in conventional currencies such as the dollar.

In addition, the development of the price of Bitcoin shows a remarkably close connection with the development of the aggregate money supply of the world's most important economies. Specifically, the deviation of the current price of bitcoin from its ten-month moving average hits its bottom two to seven months before the turning point in the development of the year-on-year change in the aggregate money supply of the thirteen largest world economies.

This is how bitcoin capitulated last June, when losses on it reached the greatest extremes. But since the third quarter of last year, the world's most important central banks have been gradually loosening their previous drastic monetary policy tightening. For example, the Bank of England had to inject new liquidity into the financial system last fall in order to prevent the potential collapse of the British pension fund segment. The Japanese and Chinese central banks also joined.

Currently, the US central bank had to reverse its monetary policy tightening in order to prevent the collapse of other banks after the collapse of the aforementioned Silicon Valley Bank. It introduced new programs of favorable loans and a kind of subsidies to banks. These programs represent liquidity injections. Analysts of the American bank Citigroup therefore refer to the measures as "quantitative easing by another name". And analysts of the British bank Barclays believe that by increasing interbank liquidity, these programs will create pressure for a decrease in interest rates for bank loans to households and companies.

In other words, new liquidity flows into the financial system and the money supply grows again. The increase in the volume of the aggregate world money supply shows a positive correlation with the development of the price of Bitcoin.

Fundamentally, it causes the devaluation of conventional money, which is evidenced by Bitcoin as a key non-manipulatable alternative to conventional money.

The Three Reversals of Web3 Gaming

Web3 Games are Back...but Are Things Different This Time Around?

I had written about skepticism of web3 games from the DICE conference, so was understandably surprised to see a much higher attention to web3 at the Game Developers Conference (GDC). Booths from WeMade, Avalanche, and Polygon were present, and I caught buzzes of conversation nearby discussing on-chain activities, NFTs, and interoperability. The enthusiasm extended beyond the conference as Square Enix, Nexon, and other companies announced initiatives around web3.

With the recent implosion of web3 around gaming (NFT crash) and finance (FTX and others), it made me wonder what was different this time around. Was this a repeat of 2021 or had gaming truly changed? After several conversations with developers, game designers, and other founders in the space, it seems like there have been real shifts in web3 games. I call these changes the Three Reversals of Web3 games.

The 1st Reversal – Web3 Dropping from Player Level to the Infrastructure Level

In 2021, games were very overt about their use of Web3. Games billed themselves as “web3 games” – pitch decks focused on tokenomics, NFT sales, and other crypto-focused metrics. This ran into a problem as onboarding into web3 (wallet setup, setting up NFT marketplaces, etc.) introduced considerable friction, scared off many people skeptical of web3, and limited the total audience. This time around, games focused on “hiding” web3 elements from their players. The rise of “Web 2.5 Games” saw the underlying web3 elements hidden from the player. One individual gave the analogy that web3 was like public cloud – no user cared which cloud a SaaS product ran on, as long as the experience was good. This reversal combats skepticism in web3 and creates a smoother player experience.

The 2nd Reversal – Switching from Turning Web3 Natives to Gamers to Turning Gamers into Web3 Users

Related to the first Reversal, the first wave of web3 games focused on starting with web3 natives and converting them into gamers. This led to two problems. The first was TAM size – there are many more gamers than web3 users, and as a result, it stayed a bit of a niche product. The second was adverse selection – web3 users were interested in making money and flipping NFTs versus staying in a game long-term. As a result, the gaming experience wasn't fun for the vast majority of users, as initial users flipped their assets and left the majority of players holding the bag. The current wave of games focuses on appealing to gamers and slowly introducing them to web3 elements that have in-game utility, contributing to a much more sustainable, long-term business model.

The Third Reversal – Refocus on NFTs from Financial Gain to Gameplay Experience

The first wave of web3 games pitched NFTs by focusing on financial upside. The environment was overheated, and more risk-taking web3 natives were confident that if they were early enough, they were practically guaranteed to earn a return on their NFTs. Gaming companies leaned into this, selling early adopters on financial returns. Social media and Youtube were full of videos where influencers gave opinions on the most lucrative NFTs for gains as if they were investments. NFTs had very limited to no use in the game, but they told investors they could figure that out later. Today, NFTs are the reverse – trying to apply in-game use first, with financial upside being a bonus. This approach is better and more long-term sustainable.

In summary, it seems like gaming companies have truly learned the lesson from the last wave and are iterating quickly. While this seems like a reason for optimism, it's important to remember that it's still early days – no true big winner for web3 games yet. Whether or not these Three Reversals will translate into actual success for the sector remains to be seen, but at least in theory, there seem to be signs for optimism this time around.

Dreams are meant to come true

Bakkt Enters the World of Crypto Accounts with the Acquisition of Apex Crypto for $200M! The platform enables investments in digital assets

Bakkt has completed its acquisition of Apex Crypto LLC, according to an April 3 announcement. It is a blockchain technology platform for major technology players to invest in cryptoassets.

The report follows the previous announcement of the planned purchase of the platform by Bakkt Holdings, which provides digital asset management. In November, Bakkt said it would pay $55 million in cash for the trading platform, along with stock worth an estimated $145 million.

Apex Crypto is a turnkey platform that enables fintech businesses to offer cryptocurrency investments to their clients. It has already brokered $12.5 billion worth of crypto trades since its inception.

The platform was launched in 2019. It currently has 30 large clients for whom it processes the execution and settlement of trades with digital assets, their custody, as well as tax services.

Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael said:

“ Tato akvizice představuje pro Bakkt novou vzrušující kapitolu, významně posunuje části našeho krpto plánu kupředu, pomohla nám proniknout do světa 5,8 milionů účtů s krypto službami a dále etabluje Bakkt jako preferovaného poskytovatele kryptoměnových služeb B2B2C. “

Společnost uvedla, že očekává, že transakce podpoří cestu společnosti zpět k ziskovosti prostřednictvím zrychlení produktů, diverzifikace příjmů a nákladových synergií.

“ The joint capabilities will open up new opportunities to reach the next generation of consumers, such as crypto rewards, as well as the potential to enter international markets through partners, the firm wrote in its announcement. “

Bakkt is a subsidiary of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., the parent organization of the New York Stock Exchange.

I have to agree with what you write, my friend. So let's be surprised.

#Bitcoin breaks highs

Ethereum is expected to reach up to $5,000 by the end of the year

Many cryptocurrency fans predict that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin in the long run to become the largest cryptocurrency in the world. According to a Coinedition report, the latest research from OKX says that up to 63% of respondents expect a price of $5,000 already this year. Is this growth real?

Shanghai hard fork

The research results come amid the expected Shanghai hard fork, which is scheduled for April 12. Thanks to EIP-4895, it will allow both validators and stakers to withdraw their staked ETH from the Beacon Chain. In addition, the update will bring an increase in the speed of transactions and a decrease in transaction fees.

This event is absolutely significant for the price development of ethereum in the near future. The maximum daily withdrawal of 50,400 ETH will enable the sale of up to 90 million per day in order to realize profits. On the other hand, the market is not in a bullrun, and on the contrary, everyone expects the cryptocurrency market to appreciate in the coming months. This could ultimately ease selling pressures.

Ethereum in the accumulation phase

According to data from TradingView, the market price of Ethereum at the time of writing is at the price level of $1,836. This means that reaching $5,000 requires an uptrend of 172% strength from the current value.

In November 2021, ethereum almost reached the level of $5,000 and recorded an all-time high of $4,868. The world's largest altcoin is highly correlated with Bitcoin, with a correlation of 0.90 according to data from Coinmetrics. In other words, as bitcoin moves, so will ethereum.

The cryptocurrency market is in an accumulation phase, which always occurs after a long-term correction. After accumulation, we should see an increase in demand and growth. Additionally, the halving cycle suggests that Bitcoin should be largely bullish in the coming year.

According to CoinMarketCap, ethereum has a market capitalization of $221.2 billion, which is $318 billion less than bitcoin. The daily trading volume is worth 5.4 billion dollars.

Get ready for more failed banks, says former IMF chief economist

The collapse of American banks still causes fears that the situation will continue to worsen. Despite the rescue of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Credit Suisse, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Raghuram Rajan, warns that further instability awaits the banks, according to a Finbold report.

Banks face instability

The main reason for concern is the fragility of the financial sector due to the flood of liquidity through quantitative easing. Rajan said he expects further instability in banks even if others do not expect it.

Currently, JPMorgan has come up with a prediction that the FED could pour another 2 trillion dollars into circulation in response to the banking crisis. It may save the banks, but the high emission of money in times of extreme inflation will be liquidating for ordinary people.

Markets were last supported by stimulus in 2020, but reflected in a low interest rate and low inflation environment. In other words, these macroeconomic indicators had room to rise because they were at the bottom. Today, however, the situation is completely different. I even informed you that the FED is allegedly losing control over inflation.

A cyclical situation

Interestingly, Rajan rightly warned against the banking sector in 2005 just before the global crisis. Although he hopes that the situation will not happen again, he expects it. If expansionary monetary policy is a problem, then the central bank can proceed to a restrictive policy, or increase interest rates.

In a recent forecast, we explained that interest rates are unlikely to fall this year. Central banks will continue to raise interest rates, or they will stop increasing them as much as possible. However, there is no assumption that they will decrease.

We are getting into an interesting situation where the FED will support the banking sector with incentives, but on the other hand suppress demand with interest rates. What is the result? Prices are high and will be even higher thanks to the stimulus, and on the other hand, high interest rates make financial products more expensive and limit demand. Rajan's fears are therefore justified and if more banks start to fail, the FED will flood us with new dollars that will impoverish us through inflation.

#Bitcoin is a miracle

#Bitcoin is a miracle

Black Canvas ♥️♣️♦️♠️ game for tough guys

Black Canvas ♥️♠️♦️♣️conquers the moon✌️

The US Govt owns over 200K Bitcoin.

That's nearly 1% of all bitcoins.

How did they get so much BTC?

It mostly came from seizures.

Nov 2020 Silk Road Seizure - 69,369 BTC

Jan 2022 Bitfinex Hack Seizure - 94,643 BTC

Mar 2022 James Zhong Seizure - 51,326 BTC

In a recent report, Glassnode tracked around 40,000 BTC that were moved internally.

So we know for sure that it isn't lying dormant in some wallets under piles of paperwork.

This makes the US govt a pretty big whale in the list:

Grayscale Cache: 643,572 BTC

Binance’s bitcoin cold wallet: 248,597 BTC

US govt (consolidated): 205,515 BTC

Mt Gox cache: 140,000 BTC

Microstrategy: 132,500 BTC

So what do they do with all the seized crypto assets?

Back in 2014, the FBI seized a huge amount of BTC when they originally took down the Silk Road.

Later that year the US Marshals held auctions to sell off the crypto assets.

But that was a different time.

Today, if I were the US govt, I would HODL like my life depends on it—because most probably it does.