Global M2 Money Supply Script Update!
I have updated the TradingView script to remove the recent India M2 data spike, until we learn more.
Download the latest script here: 👇
https://colintalkscrypto.com/files/global_m2_script.txt
This is for those of you who are using my M2 Script to track shifted M2 movements against the Bitcoin price (and even for those influencers who use my script to make their own content and don't attribute it to me, such as @AltcoinDailyio today: x.com/AltcoinDailyio… )
As I said (see post below), I suspect this is a change in reporting method or maybe some kind of data error (it's almost a clean 10x which is suspicious), and not a genuine increase in India's physical world M2. Furthermore this "10x of M2" took place over one month. Is that actually real M2?
Therefore, it is deceptive when influencers make it look like BTC might reach $220k-$400k a month from now, when in reality that is very unlikely. That doesn't seem to be stopping influencers from making clickbait headlines, pretending like it could be true, even though the odds are very much against it.
That being said, if it does turn out that India's M2 surge (a masive 10x in one month) is somehow legitimate, that's fine too, and we can all re-enable India. I just think it's prescient to give it some time, to see if the spike gets removed or if any further information comes out regarding what India changed. If India truly 10x'd its M2 over a one-month period then so be it! But I'd like to see some proof of that first.
More important than anything else, we want this Global M2 chart to be practical and useful for our purposes of predicting where the BTC price might go. Not as a hype tool.
I see people sharing the M2 Chart where it spikes super high, acting like $BTC can go to $250k-$400k in a month from now, with accompanying clickbait headlines.
The spike in the M2 chart is due to India's M2 data.
It's more likely it's a change in reporting method or some other error than not.
M2 doesn't go instantly vertical like that-- especially with that magnitude. That would be a 10x of India's money supply overnight.
There's very low odds that's a genuine change in actual supply.
That being said, Global M2 *is* heading up steeply and Bitcoin will likely surge because of it. But this was already the case before India's data spike.
Just like how jack the so called freedom fighter did to trump and others one point
You may have noticed an enormous, retroactive spike in Global M2 chart data. (see chart 1)
TL;DR: The massive pump in Global M2 remains solid, and with BTC's climb over $95k recently, we are more on track than ever.
To figure out what was caused this Global M2 chart spike, I went one-by-one through all the countries that make up the Global M2 data and discovered this spike was caused by a change to a single country's M2 data— India, specifically. Every other country appears normal. India is the only country that has this glitch/change to its M2.
I'm not sure if it is a TradingView bug (or their data source) or a change that India made specifically to the calculation of their M2. I can't find much data on this being some kind of official change, which suggests it could be a data bug of some kind.
I was, however, able to corroborate this change of India's M2 reporting outside of TradingView (see chart 2). It is possible that site uses the same erroneous data source, so I am not jumping to a conclusion about the M2 spike's legitimacy just yet.
Upon casual observation it looks like India M2 increased by about 10x— almost a perfect 10x, kind of like the decimal place was just moved right by 1, which seems suspicious in itself.
Quick fix: I removed India from the Global M2 group, until we learn more about why India's M2 changed so drastically. (see chart 3 for the corrected M2 chart with India's M2 data removed)
The blast-off is still a GO! 🚀📈
USDT dominance just broke down. (See white arrows/lines)
Every time this happens, bitcoin makes a large leg up until USDT dominance again touches the parabolic trend line.
Blue arrows indicate local BTC price tops. Notice how far we have to go until the next BTC top, based on how far the USDT dominance has to drop?
Strap in. BTC is heading up. Global M2 says so and USDT dominance confirms it.
📽️ Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
A demonstration of the changing M2 offset over time (it's not fixed)
I isolated the exact reason that everyone, including myself, kept thinking everyone else could be wrong about the M2 offset.
Hint: we were all more right than we realized.
New video tomorrow at 9am EST breaking this down and ending the mystery of the "offset that changes".
Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
- April 21 Update -
Bitcoin is making moves. It just passed $88,000!
Is this the BLAST-OFF??
Global M2 keeps making new ATHs. Global M2 has run up for *over 3 months* and it continues to head up!
I'm providing charts of both the 78-day offset to 108-day offset as they provide a good balance between the two most likely outcomes.
Are we in the "micro rally" of the 108 chart or the BLAST-OFF of the 78 day chart? Remember, there will be volatility and non-correlated periods. As such, I've learned to be slow to make an assumption. Needless to say, BTC's price moves lately have been very encouraging and exciting. If we're lucky, 78 days is it and we're already off to the races!
As I've said before, I think it's best to focus on the BIG PICTURE (that collosal M2 move on the right of the chart).
Assuming this M2 correlation to BTC plays out, we'll all be very happy, regardless of a few weeks difference.
I find the Global M2 relationship to BTC extremely exciting to watch and I'll continue to cover it.
Watch the video below to learn more. 👇
I see some Global M2 doubters/haters. It's good to question everything, but if you don't like the M2 correlation to BTC, then just look at the gold chart.
The gold chart corroborates the Global M2 chart. They move in tandem.
▶️ Gold predicts the same move for BTC. ◀️
Gold leads BTC just like global M2 leads BTC.
(first chart by @decodejar)
Nice little pop in BTC price.
$87,000 breached (hourly candles shown)
Is this the BIG M2 MOVE happening? I have learned to be patient before judging it, but a move up is always welcome!
Also, Global M2 just made a new ATH, yet again.
Markets are cooking. 🍳
What do you think?
Do you think we're already in the middle of the "Blast-off" zone? (as shown in the 78-day offset chart)
Or do you think we have a little while to wait? (as shown in the 108-day offset chart)
nostr:nevent1qqswgny4ux58tfflgsjzlekklzzw5jew408rh5kxgfxc7pwrpml8vncppemhxue69uh5qmn0wvhxcmmv2dj9hk
Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
Comparison of 78-day offset to 108-day offset
Pick your flavor. There are pros and cons to each chart. I’m ok with either outcome if it results on the big move on the right flowing into BTC and crypto.
The 78-day offset has better long-term correlation (time frames over 1 year), and it seems to be tracking better in the past 10 days or so, if we truly are mid the "blast off zone" already.
The 108-day offset looks better visually to me overall, and the 108-day has better correlation with time frames up to 1 year, but slightly worse correlation on time frames over 1 year.
We will know soon which we're in, if BTC starts steeply moving up, sooner than later.
imo it's best to focus on the big picture. Assuming the correlation plays out, we'll be good regardless of a few weeks difference.
Regardless of which it is, I find the global M2 extremely exciting to watch and it continues to give me hope.
What do you think? Do you think we're already in the middle of the "Blast-off" zone (as in the 78-day offset)? Or do you think we have a little while to wait (as in the 108-day offset)?
Notes:
Why'd I pick 78 and not 76, 77, 79, 80, 84, etc? Because it was the best mathematical correlation.
Watch the video below to learn more.
Light work
Gold has now entered its blow-off stage. Such rapid advancement will come to a terminal top, but attempting to pick a high can be very expensive. Blow off tops can extend well beyond a bear's ability to meet margin calls
$GC_F $GLD
Gold just made a new ATH. 🚀📈
Gold leads $BTC.
Excellent. 🤝
Global M2 Money Supply vs Bitcoin
🔹 CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH. Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row. This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days. (See upper-right corner of chart)
🔹 DIP BUYING OPPORTUNITY? Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn't show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th. See pink arrow.
As such, I'm wondering if next week will provide us another dip-buying opportunity.
🔹DOUBTERS AND FLIP-FLOPPERS. I see an inclination by some to shift opinion every time there is a short time frame price movement. Global M2 is a *macro* chart. Thus, it is best to view it as such and to have patience-- not to change one's analysis with each small price movement.
This is backed by the fact that Global M2 *WILL* deviate 20% of the time, by mathematical correlation— that includes deviations both to the upside and downside. This is why you must zoom out, in order to account for that 20% non-correlated period and **not be suckered into accepting it as the average**.
Furthermore, we just proved over an extended period of time (several weeks) that the 108-day offset was accurate via the "MINI RALLY THAT FAILS". That was big. Many were calling the 108-day offset wrong before that period, too. It turns out the doubters were incorrect.
I haven't seen enough proof that the 108-day offset is wrong. It's totally fine if the offset does change, and I will shift accordingly, but I'm not being too quick to jump to that conclusion. Let's give it a week or two to play out.
In summary: I wouldn't be too quick to judge the M2 offset on each short term BTC price movement.
Gold leads Bitcoin
That would indicate a large move up is coming.
Bitcoin has shown good strength during the last few days.
KEY LEVELS
If BTC can break $85k (yellow line in image 1) and hold it as support, things are beginning to look good again.
That is the first key level of support to hold in reversing the downtrend.
Next will be breaking through the the underside of the white channel, around $91k-$92k. Once that has been reclaimed and held as support, it's off to the races for the next leg up of the bull run.
I remain optimistic that BTC has more juice left in store for us.
Remember: The large influx of capital via Global M2 is coming. [image 2]
Global M2 Money Supply BREAKOUT!
▶️ New ATH! ◀️
BITCOIN FORECAST:
It looks like BTC will have a 2-month-long pump (May through end of June), followed by a 1 month corrective period (~July), followed by another pump (from the end of July, onward).
FACT:
BTC has tracked with M2's movements 80% of the time for the past several years.
Watch the video below to learn more about the predictive, correlative relationship of the Global M2 Money Supply to BTC (the video is still 100% accurate, thus I haven't needed to record a new one) 👇
