Expect A Financial Crisis In Europe With France At The Epicenter
Expect A Financial Crisis In Europe With France At The Epicenter
https://mishtalk.com/economics/expect-a-financial-crisis-in-europe-with-france-at-the-epicenter/
The EU never enforced its Growth and Stability Pact or Maastricht Treaty rules. The crisis is coming to a head with France and Italy in the spotlight. The first casualty will be Green policy.
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Image composite by Mish from the https://commission.europa.eu/business-economy-euro/economic-and-fiscal-policy-coordination/european-fiscal-board-efb/compliance-tracker_en
Compliance Rules
Deficit rule: a country is compliant if (i) the budget balance of general government is equal or larger than -3% of GDP or, (ii) in case the -3% of GDP threshold is breached, the deviation remains small (max 0.5% of GDP) and limited to one year.
Debt rule: a country is compliant if the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is below 60% of GDP or if the excess above 60% of GDP has been declining by 1/20 on average over the past three years.
Structural balance rule: a country is compliant if (i) the structural budget balance of general government is at or above the medium-term objective (MTO) or, (ii) in case the MTO has not been reached yet, the annual improvement of the structural balance is equal or higher than 0.5% of GDP, or the remaining distance to the MTO is smaller than 0.5% of GDP.
Expenditure rule: a country is complaint if the annual rate of growth of primary government expenditure, net of discretionary revenue measures and one-offs, is at or below the 10-year average of the nominal rate of potential output growth minus the convergence margin necessary to ensure an adjustment of the structural budget deficit in line with the structural balance rule.
Deficit Disaster Zones
France and Italy are major disasters right now on the budget deficit rule. France has a budget deficit of 7 percent and Italy 5 percent.
France needs to reduce its deficit by a whopping 4 percent of GDP!
Neither Italy nor Greece should never have been allowed in the EMU (European Monetary Union – Eurozone) in the first place.
Greece has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 170 percent. The target is 60 percent.
But the lead chart tells the picture. Only the Scandinavian countries are in compliance.
Looser Rules Postpone the Crisis
On February 10, the EU agreed to https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-agrees-looser-fiscal-rules-cut-debt-boost-investments-2024-02-10/#:~:text=The%20new%20rules%20give%20countries,on%20a%20plausible%20downward%20path.
.
The latest revamp of two-decades-old rules known as the Stability and Growth Pact came after some EU countries racked up record high debt as they increased spending to help their economies recover from the pandemic, and as the bloc announced ambitious green, industrial and defense goals.
The revised rules allow countries with excessive borrowing to reduce their debt on average by 1% per year if it is above 90% of gross domestic product (GDP), and by 0.5% per year on average if the debt pile is between 60% and 90% of GDP.
Countries with a deficit above 3% of GDP are required to halve this to 1.5% during periods of growth, creating a safety buffer for tough times ahead.
Defense spending will be taken into account when the Commission assesses a country’s high deficit, a consideration triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The new rules give countries seven years, up from four previously, to cut debt and deficit starting from 2025.
Note that the EU can tweak enforcement but not the baseline Stability and Growth Pact targets themselves without unanimous agreement, and a new treaty.
With that background, let’s look ahead to the crisis that looms as described by https://www.eurointelligence.com/
.
Europe’s Next Financial Crisis
We would like to alert our readers to a theme that has been preoccupying us for a while – the possibility of another financial crisis in Europe. We have generally been restrained in our warning of financial crises. The main exception was the global financial crisis and its cousin, the euro area’s sovereign debt crisis. Fifteen or so years later, we see another financial crisis ahead here in Europe: a crisis of the European social and political model with deep consequences for fiscal and financial stability.
The canary in the coalmine is the overshooting budget deficits in France and Italy, at over 7% and over 5% for 2024 respectively. These numbers are a symptom, not a cause. Behind them lies a lack of economic growth needed to sustain Europe’s social model. Germany’s fiscal policy could not be more different than that of France or Italy, and yet Germany is afflicted by the exact same problem.
The European model was powered by oligopolistic industrial companies, which were heavily supported by the state through regulation that tilted the level-playing field in their favor. The German car industry is a classic example, but everybody did this.
What is killing this model now is a shift in technology and geopolitical fragmentation. Of the two, we would argue the first is the more important. More and more functions in our lives that were previously the realm of purely mechanical processes are nowadays wholly or partially digitalized. Barriers of entry have collapsed. China went from zero to the world leader in electric cars.
European companies no longer generate sufficient profits to fuel the social model – and to fund long-term research. It is no surprise that Europe has only very few tech companies. In short, Europe’s oligopolistic old-tech model no longer works in a digital world. We have been reporting on the attempts by the EU to stem against technological developments through regulation. But this is a way of addressing symptoms, not causes.
After the multiple global shocks of this decade, the consequences of Europe’s technological decline translate into lower potential growth rates. Italy came first. Its productivity growth has been near zero since it joined the euro. The UK’s productivity growth slumped after the global financial crisis, and never recovered since. Germany’s productivity growth is unlikely to recover, even if the economic cycle does. The German Council of Economic Experts see a potential growth of around 0.5% until the end of the decade. With productivity growth that low, Europe’s model has become financially unsustainable. It is unsurprising that the political system is fragmenting everywhere. The argument for sustained deficits, in France for example, is that you need them to keep Marine Le Pen out of power. This means they will persist.
We have a fiscal crisis ahead, caused by a combination of falling productivity growth and political gridlock. Technology is the main cause of the decline. Geopolitics is what accelerated it. The solutions we have been advocating over the years – a joint fiscal capacity, a capital markets union, joint defense procurement to neutralize the rise in defense spending – are further away than ever. Unless one of these parameters change, a financial crisis is a very plausible scenario.
Spotlight France
France has a budget deficit of 7 percent but wants to fund a European army to fight Russia.
How is that supposed to work?
Spotlight Green Fantasies
The EU has adopted ambitious Green policies that will cost much more money than has been budgeted.
How is that supposed to work?
Targets Won’t Be Met
You can take those Green targets and throw then into the ashcan of ideas that never should have been set in the first place.
Even if you give France 7 years to be deficit compliant, how is France supposed to cut back a whopping 4 percent of GDP?
What’s the Basic Problem?
Eurointelligence says “Technology is the main cause of the decline. Geopolitics is what accelerated it.”
Technology is not the problem. The Maastricht treaty that created the Eurozone is flawed. And it cannot be fixed without unanimous agreement.
Given productivity and work rule differences, one interest rate set by the ECB cannot serve Italy, France, Greece, and Germany.
Add to that, EU nannycrat rules. The EU is more interested in cracking down on Google (Now Alphabet GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (now Meta Platforms META), and Microsoft (MSFT) for alleged monopolies than developing anything.
The EU Is Dysfunctional
In a single word, the EU is dysfunctional. That’s the problem, not technology. The Maastricht treaty itself is a big part of the reason the EU is dysfunctional. The Euro itself, with one common interest rate, is fundamentally flawed.
Companies like Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple could not exist in the EU because in the name of competition and diversity, the EU would kill them before they ever got big enough to matter.
EU rules make it impossible to fix the basic problem. So the EU has resorted to nannycrat rules to regulate US and Chinese companies instead of fixing anything.
Technology, including AI, and geopolitics is now accelerating the basic problem, the EU is dysfunctional by treaty. It’s showing up in polls everywhere.
European Parliament Polls in France
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EP France Polls from Wikipedia
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is clobbering Renew/Modem by a whopping 12 percentage points, 30-18.
This chart is for France only, not the entire parliament, but it reflects on French President Emmanuel Macron’s sinking popularity and the sinking centrists in general.
A War Economy
As a way to create jobs, EC President Charles Michel promotes a war economy.
In a preposterous proposal to deal with growth, https://mishtalk.com/economics/european-council-president-calls-on-europe-to-switch-to-a-war-economy/
I have a suggestion. Let US senator Lindsey Graham and EC president Charles Michel lead the charge.
Instead of fixing Germany’s aging infrastructure, attempting to compete with the US on AI, or competing with China on anything, EC President Charles Michel promotes war as growth.
It’s Time for a New Strategy
Please note German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is refusing to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
On March 16, I commented https://mishtalk.com/economics/ukraine-wont-win-the-war-its-time-for-a-new-strategy/
There’s Solidarity, Then There’s Solidarity
Poll after poll shows support for Ukraine. Every one of then is flawed because they fail to ask “how much are you willing to pay.”
There’s solidarity in the EU, but it stops with wheat and weapons. In the US, Biden is desperate for the war to go on. But he still has no goal. Is Biden’s goal the same as Zelensky’s: “The war will not be over as long as Crimea is occupied.”
We don’t know because Biden won’t say. Biden also will not say how much he is willing to commit. Is it another $150 billion or is it $1 trillion or more?
Meanwhile, prepare for carnage of the center, Greens, and warmongers in the next European Parliament elections.
A fiscal crisis awaits. The first casualty will be Green energy policies.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 03/28/2024 - 05:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expect-financial-crisis-europe-france-epicenter
Hysterical Harvard Protesters Throw Fit Over Concert By Israeli Singer
Hysterical Harvard Protesters Throw Fit Over Concert By Israeli Singer
A concert by an Israeli singer close to Harvard’s campus triggered an anti-Israel protest.
The concert, set up by Harvard Chabad, featured Israeli singer Ishay Ribo and was meant to “lift the spirits of Israeli and Jewish students suffering from Jew-hate on college campuses,” according to an Instagram https://www.instagram.com/p/C30sQU0vCvX/?igsh=YmpiamZia2JhdzYw
from the group.
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The event was also meant to help with getting funds for Israel, https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2024/2/28/venue-staff-boycott-israeli-concert/
The Harvard Crimson.
Employees from https://www.harvardsquare.com/venue/the-sinclair/
, a “live-music venue” at Harvard Square that served as the host for the event, boycotted the show and protested outside the building.
One employee of The Sinclair said:
“None of us had wanted this to happen. It’s just a bummer that it didn’t matter to them. Now the gem that The Sinclair is has to be stained with something like this, and it f***ing sucks because it wasn’t in any of our hands.”
To keep the concert going as scheduled despite the boycott, non-Sinclair workers were reportedly brought to help, with Chabad Rabbi Hirschy Zarchi saying:
“We’re very grateful . . . to The Sinclair management and ownership for working with us to seek solutions, alternative solutions, to allow the event to go on.”
Harvard Chabad wrote in response to the protest:
“Jew-hate and anti-Israel voices are targeting Harvard Chabad and Israeli artist, Ishay Ribo. Ishay is a man who embodies profound love and peace. . . . Love, peace, and music will prevail. Though there are no concert proceeds to speak of at this time, should there be, it will absolutely go to the healing and rebuilding of Israel, who is recovering from and fighting off an enemy seeking its destruction,” as seen from the group’s Instagram.
Harvard Chabad shared with Campus Reform, Harvard Chabad said both concert times were sold out, despite the protesters “spewing lies and conspiracies against the Jewish people and Isreal.”
”Harvard Chabad succeeded in creating an electrifying evening of unity, solidarity, and love with Israeli artist, Ishay Ribo,” said Harvard Chabad.
“The purpose of this musical and cultural experience was to lift the spirits of Israeli and Jewish students on campus who have been subjected to much hate and vitriol over the last several months. From the joy and outpouring of gratitude we received from our community, it was clear that love, solidarity, and music prevailed.”
”Any proceeds of the concert will indeed go to the healing and rebuilding of Israel, including to the hostages and their families, victims of rape, and the rebuilding of homes, hospitals, and kindergartens intentionally targeted by Hamas terrorists,” the group added.
Campus Reform has reported on several anti-Semitic controversies that affected Harvard in the past several months.
On March 7, Harvard’s Kennedy School https://www.campusreform.org/article/anti-semitic-speaker-doubles-pro-hamas-comments-harvard-event-/25023
a professor who previously called Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre “just a normal human struggle 4 #Freedom.”
On Feb. 20, several Harvard alumni https://www.campusreform.org/article/alumni-sue-harvard-rampant-hate-jews/24995
the school, alleging that the Ivy League university “despicably failed to address, prevent, and rectify the prevalence of antisemitism, hate, and discrimination on its campus.”
On Feb. 12, the Kennedy School https://www.campusreform.org/article/un-official-says-real-threat-israeli-genocide-harvard-talk/24880
a UN official who said at the event: “[S]aying that the motivation [for the Oct. 7 terrorist attack] was anti-Semitism is wrong and dangerous. . . . the argument is that this attack was launched as a way to break the occupation, against the apartheid”
Campus Reform reached out to The Sinclair for comment. This article will be updated accordingly.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/25/2024 - 15:40
The 4th Bitcoin Halving Explained
The 4th Bitcoin Halving Explained
Sometime in April 2024, the reward that cryptocurrency miners receive for mining bitcoin (BTC) will go from ₿6.25 to ₿3.125, with significant consequences for the world’s most valuable digital currency.
To help understand this quadrennial event, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/the-4th-bitcoin-halving-explained/
to see what the three previous halvings might tell us about the fourth.
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Bitcoin Explained
But to understand halvings, we first need to take a step back to talk a bit about https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-bitcoin-works/
.
Unlike fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar or the Chinese yuan that are backed by central banks, cryptocurrencies are supported by an underlying blockchain, which contains a record of every single bitcoin transaction in a public decentralized, distributed ledger.
When you spend a bitcoin, a digital record of that transaction needs to be validated and added to the blockchain. And this is where miners come in. They legitimize and audit bitcoin transactions, and as a reward, receive bitcoin in payment.
Halvings Explained
notwithstanding, you normally can’t keep printing money forever without running into hyperinflation (think 1920s Germany or 1990s Argentina).
To get around this problem, the Bitcoin network has a pre-programmed upper limit of 21 million, with the reward that miners receive decreasing by half (hence, halving) roughly every four years.
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When the Bitcoin network first launched, the reward was initially set to ₿50, an amount that was high enough to quickly increase the money supply and incentivize miners to participate in the validation process. On November 28, 2012, that reward decreased by half to ₿25, then to ₿12.5 on July 9, 2016, and on May 11, 2020, to ₿6.25.
The last halving will happen sometime in 2136, with the reward decreasing to ₿0.00000001 or one satoshi, the smallest denomination of bitcoin possible. The last bitcoin will enter circulation four years later, in 2140.
Halvings and Miner Revenue
With the fourth halving just around the corner, some have wondered whether mining will still be sustainable. Modern mining operations today are costly endeavors, often with https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/the-cost-of-mining-bitcoin-in-198-different-countries/
, and losing half of one’s revenue overnight would be a nightmare for any business.
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And if you look at historical miner revenue in bitcoin, you can see quite clearly, the steep drop in revenue after each halving. But what’s interesting, is that if you compare that against the miner revenue in USD, there is a drop there as well, but it recovers soon thereafter as the cryptocurrency appreciates. In other words, a miner may receive less bitcoin, but that bitcoin is worth more.
Halvings Compared
So we know that the network will continue to function after the fourth halving, but what else can we learn from previous halvings?
If we look at the percent change in market capitalization post-halvings, we can see a bit of a pattern. After both the second and third halvings, market capitalization peaked at around the year-and-half mark. The second-halving peak occurred on day 526 at around $328 billion, an increase of 3,000%, while the third-halving peak came three weeks later on day 547 at over $1.2 trillion, or an increase of just under 700%.
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The post-first-halving peak happened a bit earlier, at the 372-day mark, but because the peak was so high (over 10,000%!) it is https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/understanding-bitcoin-halving
, and omitted to better illustrate the trend.
The 4th Bitcoin Halving Projected?
Because we know that halvings occur every 210,000 blocks and that each block takes around 10 minutes to mine, we have a good idea of when the https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/
: April 21, 2024. If the next halving follows the same pattern as the previous two, then there could be a market-capitalization peak some time during the third week of October 2025.
And with the price of bitcoin setting new records at time of writing, a lot of people will be watching very closely, indeed.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/18/2024 - 22:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/4th-bitcoin-halving-explained
EU Parliament To Sue EU Commission For Releasing Funds To Hungary
EU Parliament To Sue EU Commission For Releasing Funds To Hungary
On Monday evening, the European Parliament’s Legal Affairs Committee (JURI) decided whether to refer the European Commission to the Court of Justice of the European Union for unblocking previously https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2024/03/ma-este-dont-az-europai-parlament-hogy-beperelje-e-az-europai-bizottsagot-mert-penzt-adott-magyarorszagnak
.
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen smiles before the start of the EPP Congress in Bucharest, Romania, Wednesday, March 6, 2024. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda)
The result of the committee’s vote was a recommendation that the case be referred to the EU’s top court. However, the decision to do so must be ratified by European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
Should Metsola not agree with the proposal, it will go to the Conference of Presidents, i.e., the leaders of the parliament’s political groups.
However, this means that a delicate situation would arise within the European People’s Party (EPP), which has become increasingly entrenched in the liberal mainstream over the past few years. During the campaign period, it was up to the EPP president to decide whether the institution led by the EPP’s top candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, should be brought before the courts.
Fidesz MEP Ernő Schaller-Baross told Magyar Nemzet the situation was becoming farcical.
“What the European Parliament is doing is nonsense from a legal point of view, since it is nothing more than a case of going to the European Court of Justice to legally impose its own political demands, without regard for legal limits.
“It expects the Court of Justice to annul the Commission’s decision on the EU funds due to Hungary because it did not take sufficient account of the parliament’s political arguments,” he said.
Putting the developments into context, the MEP added that the dangers of the disempowerment of democracy and politics, as well as the political bias in the functioning of the EU that filters into legal procedures, are dangerous.
“It is telling that the European Parliament’s Legal Service is unable or does not dare to give an opinion on the legal action, as there is no legal basis for such a lawsuit, which clearly shows that it is a political dispute,” he added.
Schaller-Baross said that the upcoming EU elections will be an opportunity for the electorate to voice its demand for a better democracy: “With less than a hundred days to go until the European elections, European voters will have their say on the functioning of the EU institutions in the spirit of their demand for a better democracy. Change is needed in Brussels. We hope that political forces that want to build a Europe of nations and respect our EU treaties will win a majority in the EP elections in June.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 03/13/2024 - 03:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-parliament-sue-eu-commission-releasing-funds-hungary
Twilight Of The Blobs
Twilight Of The Blobs
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/twilight-of-the-blobs/
“Respect the blob, learn from the blob, love the blob.”
- Robert Kagan, Arch Blob Monster, Brookings, 2020
HG Wells concocted a marvelous trick ending to his classic tale The War of the Worlds (1897). Remember: the colossal Martian tripod “fighting machines” swarm all over the planet zapping cities with “heat rays”. . . it looks like all-is-lost . . . but finally the darn things just quit marching, stop zapping, and stand down . . . the alien protoplasms at the controls (surprise ending) turn up dead and rotting inside from the action of our tiny invisible allies: the earth’s one-celled, disease-causing bacteria, to which the Martian blob creatures have no immunity!
The Gaian overtones in that story resound today as we Earthlings devise ingenious new methods to wreck terrestrial life, including ourselves. The planet seems to have some teleological drive to save itself, a kind of immune system. Notice: in all the ongoing debates about the wonders and dangers of A-I, and Bitcoin, and suffocating surveillance, nobody ever talks about the sketchy condition of the electric grid that all these worrisome phenomena utterly rely on.
In our chatter over Peak Oil, there’s little awareness of oil production’s utter dependence on steady capital flows. In all the guff about centralized control emitted by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum, there’s no mention of the centrifugal forces driving human affairs to re-localization, dis-aggregation of large states, and down-scaling of many activities. In our zeal to become Gods, we miss a lot.
Imagine: Bitcoin shoots up to a million dollars. You’re a zillionaire! Uh Oh. . . somewhere outside Zanseville, Ohio, a squirrel takes a final chaw through some old insulation on a wire coming out of a transformer. His head blows up in a blue arc flash, and in a few seconds all the electricity goes out from Chicago to Boston. It turns out that seventeen substations in ten states have blown relays, transformers, and switchgear. Some of those components were forty years old and are now manufactured twelve thousand miles away in a country that doesn’t like us anymore. The replacement parts get held up in a Chinese port. The power doesn’t come back on for weeks. Nobody who lives in the eastern USA can get to his Bitcoin wallet, which is just a virtual entity made of computer code residing in a digital “cloud,” i.e., nowhere real.
Of course, in an event that bad, a lot of other things would fail — really just about everything that comprises modern life — but for sure you could kiss your Bitcoin goodbye, perhaps forever, because by the time the juice comes back on (if it even does), nobody will ever again want to invest their wealth in digital “money” they can’t access, and Bitcoin will go back to whence it came: zero.
Likewise, the financial system we depend on is a gigantic apparatus grown extremely janky from over-elaboration and hyper-complexity — to the degree that all kinds of things denoted as having “moneyness” are simply hallucinations of the markets that trade them. How many quadrillions of dollars do “derivative” financial instruments represent on the landscape of “money” these days? Most of these things amount to little more than bets that some number — an interest rate, a currency, a revenue flow — will change either up or down. That is, they are figments.
Under Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the evolution of figments can theoretically go on forever. Derivatives can be ever more abstracted from what they purport to represent, until they fly up the system’s cloacal vent. MMT has become popular economic dogma, but its theory remains to be substantiated. Since the formula relies on the unlimited “printing” of money by central bank proxies for governments, you might bet that something will go wrong with such a system — and it kind of looks like something is about to go wrong in the system we’ve built for regulating and distributing capital. And do we need to state what “capital” is? (Real wealth, not figments, wishes, bets, and hallucinations. . . hard things like good land, ore pockets, installed machinery, railroad tracks, and so on. . . .)
Bitcoin has gone “hockey stick” the past month, meaning on a chart the move up looks nearly vertical. Do you know why it’s going up? I’ll tell you: it’s going up . . . because it’s going up. People and groups of people (wealth funds, banks) see the up-trend and deduce that Bitcoin is going “to the moon.” Meanwhile, they view the tea leaves of the currency scene and see a lot of brown, crumbly debris where there used to be “capital.” The money itself is losing its “moneyness” all over the place. The most vulnerable module of the system now is the bond market.
The bond market is based on the idea that borrowed money will be reliably paid back, the key word there being reliably. One crucial condition, though, is that money has to stay “money.” People have to regard it as possessing value. And now all kinds of money is visibly losing value. Approaching the $35-trillion mark in our national debt, there is reason to doubt that the USA can plausibly pay off its debt, or even service it anymore — that is, keep paying interest on it. The more money we “print” under MMT, the more value the money loses. The interest rate on the borrowed money has to go up to compensate for that loss of value, and all of a sudden you’re borrowing a shit-ton of money to pay the interest on the money you owe, the gross volume of which is only increasing . . . moving rapidly toward critical. . . . Uh-oh.
Many sentient beings viewing the scene warn us that the bond market is liable to blow, and with it most of the other modules in the current MMT-driven system. That will be the magic moment when a big theory gets disproven rather vividly and injuriously. The price of everything will vaporize in a mushroom cloud of malinvestment and when the dust settles — which might take a long time — everything will be priced differently, including many things at zero.
This is the kind of world we’re in now, and all this is why I don’t worry quite so much about the machinations of the various blobs that have self-assembled to defend their particular special interests while doing harm to many of us: the military-industrial blob, the censorship blob, the fake news blob, the intel blob, the corporate monopoly blob, the medical blob, the central banking blob.
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The systems we depend on to make all things blobish function are looking pretty ill, like they’re not going be working a whole lot longer.
The result will be a beneficial time-out from blobbery. I’ll venture to predict that it will be a rather long time-out. A lot of the scary things going on around us, tyrannizing us, stripping our assets and our freedom, will not find their footing easily in the aftermath, perhaps never again. We’ll have decades, maybe centuries, to think about the hubris that brought all of that on, and in the meantime, we’ll have to live the earthly life as the earth allows and abide with it. And maybe dote on some new dreams of what a perfect world would look like.
* * *
Support his blog by visiting https://www.patreon.com/JamesHowardKunstler
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/11/2024 - 13:00
SBF Lawyers Ask For Just 5 To 6 Years In Sentencing Memo, Citing "Autism Spectrum Disorder"
SBF Lawyers Ask For Just 5 To 6 Years In Sentencing Memo, Citing "Autism Spectrum Disorder"
We're certain that no one is lamenting the rise in Bitcoin more than Sam Bankman-Fried, who probably could have gotten away with his FTX fraud - at least for longer than he did - with the price of the key crypto on the rise as it's been.
Perhaps that's what the motivating factor was for his legal team, who is now trying to get SBF a sentence of just 5 to 6 years versus the 100 years he faces, for his fraud charges, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/sam-bankman-fried-suggests-shorter-sentence-for-fraud-conviction-citing-autism-e8481876
this week.
SBF's lawyers filed with the court a hundred-page sentencing memo late Tuesday, arguing that the FTX head should only get 63 to 78 months his jail due to his "autism spectrum disorder".
“The social dynamics in prison and the scrutiny he is receiving is likely to result in him facing physical violence," the memo said. It argued that his autism spectrum disorder could endanger his safety in prison and they suggested that difficulties in interpreting social cues could lead to misunderstandings with inmates and guards.
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Bankman-Fried's defense portrayed him as a philanthropist who lived simply, contrasting with the prosecution's narrative of a luxurious lifestyle in the Bahamas. Evidence presented by prosecutors however, included a photo with Katy Perry and mentions of high-profile dinners, aiming to depict extravagance.
SBF's lawyers argued his actions were driven by philanthropy, not greed.
The memo continues: “Those who know Sam are sensitive to the tragic fact that nothing in life brings him real happiness. Sam suffers from anhedonia, a severe condition characterized by a near-complete absence of enjoyment, motivation, and interest. He has been that way since childhood.”
“The harm to customers, lenders, and investors is zero,” they continued.
But Sunil Kavuri, an FTX creditor based in the U.K., https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/sam-bankman-fried-suggests-shorter-sentence-for-fraud-conviction-citing-autism-e8481876
: “Every customer who held any crypto is not whole. It’s like someone stealing your house, selling it for a profit and paying you back based on what it was worth five years ago.”
A former NYC Police officer that SBF is incarcerated with also wrote a letter to the judge on his behalf, writing: “Even though twelve out of every fourteen of Sam’s weekly meals are just undercooked rice, a scoop of disgusting-looking beans and week-old brown lettuce, Sam has stayed true to his commitment to not participate in the maltreatment of animals.”
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Thu, 02/29/2024 - 12:00
'Stop The Weapons, Start The Talks': Third Year Of Ukraine War Begins
'Stop The Weapons, Start The Talks': Third Year Of Ukraine War Begins
https://www.commondreams.org/news/stop-the-weapons-start-the-talks-third-year-of-ukraine-war-begins
Two years of fighting after Russia's brutal 2022 invasion of Ukraine has the world asking what peace between the two nations can possibly look like and what is the possible path to end a war that has left a nation shredded and hundreds of thousands dead.
Calling the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine a violation of the UN Charter and international law, UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Friday said the war has created "an open wound at the heart of Europe" that only diplomacy could fix. "It is high time for peace—a just peace, based on the UN Charter, international law, and General Assembly resolutions," declared Guterres.
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The Secretary-General condemned the invasion as a "dangerous precedent" set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has claimed eastern regions of Ukraine rightfully belong to Russia and justified the war as necessary to block the ongoing expansion of NATO that betrayed earlier promises by the military alliance.
As the war enters its third year, foreign policy experts argue that the current standstill—in which Russia has realized it cannot possibly take the whole country by force and Ukraine is unlikely to have the might to push the invading army back over the border—proves there is no military solution.
published to mark the two-year anniversary of the war's start, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecrafts analysts Anatol Lieven and George Beebe argue that the people of Ukraine have much more to win than lose by seeking a diplomatic solution.
"Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable," Lieven and Beebe's paper states. "This belief is false."
The pair war that resistance to diplomacy is "also extremely dangerous for Ukraine"s future because the bloody war—in which over 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and more than 5 million displaced—"is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse."
The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/25/todayspaper/weary-but-determined-ukrainians-vow-never-to-bow-to-russia.html
Sunday that while Ukrainians are "weary" of the bloody war that has taken so much from them, "but ever determined to repel the invaders."
The Times interviewed Dr. Maryna Prokopenko, a surgeon at Kharkiv Regional Hospital, who said the battered bodies and suffering she sees inform her desire for "this war to end," but said ceding territory to the Russians was unacceptable.
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But with the Ukrainian military "outgunned and outnumbered against a more powerful opponent," as the Associated Press https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-2-years-what-to-know-d0f1c1bd57f7ebbe5f7335738acbc6b4
—and additional foreign military assistance stalled in the U.S. Congress and by other allies in Europe due to domestic concerns about prolonging support for a war with no end in sight—the idea of a negotiated settlement has deep appeal for many.
"As things stand, neither side has won. Neither side has lost. Neither side is anywhere near giving up. And both sides have pretty much exhausted the manpower and equipment that they started the war with," claimed Richard Barrons, a retired British general and current co-chair for Universal Defence & Security Solutions, a military consultancy firm.
While militarists https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/reasons-opposing-ukraine-aid-are-baseless
the U.S. and other NATO countries must double-down on their support for Ukraine to combat Russian aggression, critics of endless war say it is Ukranian civilians paying the biggest price over the refusal to forge a negotiated settlement leading to a peace agreement to end the war.
"To resolve the ongoing crisis, diplomatic engagement through negotiations and mediation needs to be given more consideration," says Omotola Adeyoju Ilesanmi, a senior research fellow at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, in a memo this week. "Further, it ought to take precedence over other inefficient measures, such as using military force to accomplish political goals."
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The U.S.-based peace group CodePink issued a statement Friday similarly arguing that two years of war have proved that there is no military solution and that another $61 billion in U.S. military assistance—mostly in the form of more bombs, missiles, and other armaments—would not do more than the $113 billion already spent overall on assistance.
"Prolonging the war in Ukraine will not stabilize the region nor bring peace to Ukrainians; only peace talks and diplomacy can do that," the group said. "Stop the weapons. Start the talks."
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Lieven and Beebe argue in their assessment that the United States and other powerful allies to Ukraine have more leverage now to bring Russia to the negotiating table even as the Ukraine army appears weaker than at previous intervals in the war. As they write:
Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy. Reducing the deep dependence on China created by the invasion will also sooner or later require Russia to seek some form of détente with the West.
As a result, the United States has significant leverage for bringing Russia to the table and forging verifiable agreements to end the fighting. But this leverage will diminish over time. The United States should therefore quickly challenge Putin to make good on his insistence that Russia is willing to negotiate by publicly supporting calls from China, Brazil, and other key Global South actors for talks to end the war.
In a recent column promoting a new kind of engagement by the U.S. government, Lauren Evans, program assistant for peacebuilding at the Friends Committee on National Legislation (FCNL), mourned the "devastating conflict and catastrophic harm to civilians" across Ukraine over the last two years and said the "situation cannot improve un the war stops."
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"While the U.S. cannot and should not dictate terms of peace," wrote Evans, "it can be a better champion of a diplomatic resolution and help envision a new security paradigm in Europe based on the principles of shared security, not the threat of force."
Those pushing for the diplomatic path acknowledge it will be a hard path, but say the alternative of war cannot be the permanent choice. "Even if the United States embarks seriously on an effort to create a path to negotiations, the process of compromise will not be easy or simple," Lieven and Beebe conclude. "But the alternatives—for Ukraine and the world—will be far worse."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 02/26/2024 - 17:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/stop-weapons-start-talks-third-year-ukraine-war-begins
Climate Dieticians Push Americans To Cut Beef For The Sake Of The Planet
Climate Dieticians Push Americans To Cut Beef For The Sake Of The Planet
“… Replacing beef with a different protein — even for just one meal — can cut the emissions footprint of a person’s diet that day by as much as half. …”
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One Simple Change to Reduce Your Climate Impact? Swap Out Beef
Replacing beef with a different protein — even for just one meal — can cut the emissions footprint of a person’s diet that day by as much as half.
By https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AVypnhGtqak/zahra-hirji
21 February 2024 at 20:00 GMT+10
Next time you’re out for lunch, try playing a little game: Without looking it up, can you find the most and least climate-friendly options on the menu?
Unlike a meal’s price, the greenhouse-gas footprint of food isn’t typically spelled out. But you don’t need to ask a climate scientist to find out either. There’s one simple trick for identifying the highest impact item on almost any menu: If there’s beef, that’s probably it.
…
“You don’t have to become a vegan to have a big impact on your carbon footprint,” says Diego Rose, a professor and director of the nutrition program at Tulane University. “You just have to swap out beef.”
…
Beef’s footprint is especially outsized. For one, there are roughly 1.5 billion cows on the planet. About 13 million square kilometers (3.2 billion acres) of land is used to raise all that cattle, along with buffalo, and their food — one-quarter of all land used for agriculture, according to a https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2211912416300013#bib13
in Global Food Security. Then there’s the methane. Cows and other ruminants have a unique digestive system that allows them to turn grass into fuel, but in the process their special gut bacteria releases methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term.
…
“In the US, most of us eat more beef than what’s considered healthy for us,” says Stephanie Roe, a climate and energy lead scientist at the nonprofit World Wildlife Fund. “So that’s low-hanging fruit because then we can improve our health outcomes in addition to environmental ones.”
…
I have a big problem with the anti-beef push.
There is a reason cowboys herded cows in the old West, and why the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maasai_people
and many other peoples still do, and why beef cattle are chosen when other crops would in theory produce a much higher yield per acre.
Cattle can be raised in harsh regions which are far too unforgiving for other farm produce.
The suggestion raising beef is taking far more land than other food production, with the implicit suggestion that land dedicated to beef production could be repurposed for other produce, in my opinion verges on a lie by omission. I’m sure some cattle land could be used for other purposes, but a lot of it couldn’t.
In places where beef production is the only option, abandoning beef would mean abandoning food – dramatically reducing the total food available for people to eat.
Even in places where other food choices are available, the anti-beef push could impact food supplies. Stopping beef production would not automatically equate to increased production of other food.
In a world where https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/the-hunger-crisis/world-hunger-facts/
, attacking the supply of food in the name of the alleged climate emergency in my opinion should be viewed as a crime against humanity.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 02/22/2024 - 21:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/climate-dieticians-push-americans-cut-beef-sake-planet
Only Took 15 Months For Jeff Bezos To Get His Rocket Up
Only Took 15 Months For Jeff Bezos To Get His Rocket Up
After a 15-month-long pause, Jeff Bezos' space company, Blue Origin, successfully launched its New Shepard rocket from Launch Site One in West Texas.
New Shepard was uncrewed, carrying 33 science experiments and 38,000 postcards from the company's STEM-focused charity.
Liftoff! https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewShepard?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1737151743648006341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A little more than four minutes after liftoff, New Shepard reached a maximum altitude of 351,247 feet.
The capsule has just reached apogee—the top of its flight—and is now descending back to Earth. https://twitter.com/hashtag/NS24?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1737152802680365299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The booster and capsule successfully returned to Earth.
Booster touchdown! https://twitter.com/hashtag/NS24?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1737153579264192570?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Capsule touchdown! Congrats to Team Blue on today’s successful mission. https://twitter.com/hashtag/NS24?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Blue Origin (@blueorigin) https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1737154297396408627?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Watch the full launch here:
Today's successful launch comes 15 months after the New Shepard launch in Sept. 2022 failed about 30,000 feet into flight. The Federal Aviation Administration reviewed the incident and directed the space company to complete 21 corrective actions to keep the same failure from happening again, "including a redesign of engine and nozzle components" and organizational changes.
Bezos and Blue Origin have been locked in a rocket race with Elon Musk's SpaceX. Musk has blown away any competition, including nations, launching over 80% of the world's payload to orbit this year.
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Congrats to Bezos. He finally got his rocket up.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 12/19/2023 - 15:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/only-took-15-months-jeff-bezos-get-his-rocket
'Irish People Are Being Attacked' - Anti-Immigrant Riots Erupt After Dublin Stabbing Spree
'Irish People Are Being Attacked' - Anti-Immigrant Riots Erupt After Dublin Stabbing Spree
A stabbing spree sparked riots in downtown Dublin on Thursday, as anti-immigration ruffians set vehicles ablaze, looted stores and fought police officers.
The trouble began around 1:40 pm local time in Parnell Square East in downtown Dublin, next to the Gaelscoil Choláiste Mhuire children's school. The Irish police -- or "garda" -- say three young children and a woman in her 30s were wounded by a knife-wielding man in his 40s. Two were seriously wounded: a five-year-old girl and the adult woman.
NOW - Multiple children stabbed near a school in Dublin, Ireland.https://t.co/J82aidU94Y
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1727707454199173299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The fiend attacked a group of children queued up as they were moving from one scheduled class to the next. “The kids were out walking. All of a sudden, one of them fell to the ground, then another fell to the ground, then another falls to the ground,” https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hero-creche-worker-stepped-in-to-save-children-during-parnell-square-stab-attack-as-girl-5-in-critical-condition/a198507873.html
a witness.
According to some reports, the wounded woman, a school worker, heroically rushed to defend the five-year-old girl, who was said to have been stabbed in the neck. According to a source anonymously quoted by https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hero-creche-worker-stepped-in-to-save-children-during-parnell-square-stab-attack-as-girl-5-in-critical-condition/a198507873.html
:
This all happened in a matter of seconds and after her very brave actions another two children suffered superficial stabbing injuries to their chest and shoulder in what was a frenzied incident. She defended those children with all her strength – all that she was doing was trying to protect those little kids and people in what was is a very built up area in the city centre saw what was happening when they passed the school.”
The attack ended when the villain stumbled to the ground and "a load of people jumped on him," said the witness. He was taken to a hospital to be treated for facial injuries. His wounds were minimized by onlookers who formed a barrier around him to prevent a prolonged beating.
🚨https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Currently, multiple riots have broken out in Dublin, Ireland, leaving thousands of people angry after an immigrant, believed to be Algerian, carried out… https://t.co/qx6W2KDvV0
— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1727783505935912977?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
A Garda spokesman said the early indication was that the stabbing rampage was not an act of terrorism, and officials have yet to identify the attacker or his ethnicity. However, in the immediate wake of the attack, social media was full of posts declaring that the man is Algerian.
True or false, those rumors prompted angry Irish, some carrying Irish flags, to start raising hell in the vicinity of the attack and other areas too. "Irish people are being attacked by these scum," a protester told AFP, reflecting the attitude of the mob. Chanting anti-immigration slogans, rioters set several vehicles on fire, including a police car, a double-decker bus and a light-rail train. They also attacked cops with fireworks and looted stores.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/DublinRiots?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— JOE.ie (@JOEdotie) https://twitter.com/JOEdotie/status/1727824049324114382?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
reported Reuters. "There are no far right parties or politicians elected to parliament, but small anti-immigrant protests have grown in the last year." At the peak of Thursday night's violence, more than 400 Irish police were deployed, including many in riot gear.
🚨https://twitter.com/hashtag/UPDATE?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1727798592461549867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Social media users shared video of police cars turning around after being chased by rioters throwing various objects:
Dublin police forced to flee. The native Irish are too angry this time. We Europeans are all very angry about what happened today in Dublin. We want mass expulsions now. Free Europe. https://t.co/omEffhIu6c
— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1727816114690822241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Videos also circulated purporting to show a Holiday Inn that's been used to house immigrants being vandalized and then set on fire:
Irish natives devastate hotels housing illegal immigrants in Dublin. This after the cowardly knife attack on Irish children by an Algerian. https://t.co/ZvLyYqVKEx
— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1727912962998903023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
JUST IN: Another hotel on fire in Dublin, Ireland… Citizens set fire to the Holiday Inn that is used to house immigrants following the violent stabbing of three children..https://t.co/51Y7Gj4dXC
— Chuck Callesto (@ChuckCallesto) https://twitter.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1727901525198946422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Another video claims to depict rioters attacking a fire truck attempting to respond to the hotel fire:
Irish natives devastate hotels housing illegal immigrants in Dublin. This after the cowardly knife attack on Irish children by an Algerian. https://t.co/ZvLyYqVKEx
— RadioGenoa (@RadioGenoa) https://twitter.com/RadioGenoa/status/1727912962998903023?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The head of Irish police, Drew Harris, attributed the violence to a "lunatic, hooligan faction driven by a far-right ideology" and implied they were inflamed by online https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/23/world/europe/dublin-attack.html
Irish justice Minster Helen McEntee.
Innocent children ruthlessly stabbed by a mentally deranged non-national in Dublin, Ireland today. Our chief of police had this to say on the riots in the aftermath. Drew, not good enough. There is grave danger among us in Ireland that should never be here in the first place, and… https://t.co/ac6j1GIjXD
— Conor McGregor (@TheNotoriousMMA) https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/1727800056835621033?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Ireland took in https://www.ft.com/content/4b01c118-6405-4548-953d-6ba26042fef0
into the country, one of the highest per-capita rates in the European Union.
We should soon learn more about the perpetrator of the stabbings. If he were not an immigrant, you'd think authorities would have raced to say so -- to throw some water on the fiery and not-so-peaceful rioting. Stay tuned...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 11/24/2023 - 06:35
The Milei-nnial Generation: Fury, Desperation, And A Recognition That Nothing Works Anymore
The Milei-nnial Generation: Fury, Desperation, And A Recognition That Nothing Works Anymore
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Milei-nnials and no Gen Zzz
As noted yesterday, the weekend saw “https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-political-earthquake
” as radical conservative libertarian Javier Milei, who dresses as a superhero, publicly attacks “leftards”, and wants to “burn down” the central bank and shut down most government ministries, was elected president of Argentina. Milei also wants to dollarize – with no dollars. Where one could once argue Argentina is a radical economic and political outlier, it now looks like a potential precursor: now, DM = EM.
Yes, it’s no surprise that in a two-horse presidential race, the incumbent who saw inflation hit 143% y-o-y lost, and it’s no shock Argentina continued a LatAm tradition of political swings from one extreme to the other in the hope that it might help the public live slightly better. Yes, given Milei doesn’t have a Congressional majority, he may not be able to achieve what he wants to do.
Yet the extreme policy being embraced --dollarization, massive austerity, and “burning down” the central bank, so ceding monetary and most fiscal sovereignty-- is remarkable. It speaks to fury, desperation, and a recognition that nothing traditional works anymore, so taboos must be broken. The same is true elsewhere, as a ‘Milei-nnial’ generation emerges.
Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is also proposing to fire 50% of the federal bureaucracy if he were to win, and Republican front-runner Trump wants to impose uniform tariffs on all imports, deport millions of illegal aliens, and remake the education system – this time with an organised parallel bureaucracy to ensure he can do what he says, rather than pressing a button and watching nothing happen.
In Europe, the far right party of Geert Wilders is expected to do very well in the Dutch election; Germany is now talking about deporting people en masse; populist Meloni is already in power in Italy; Spain is seeing huge street protests against its new government; and the UK continues to gaze radically at its political navel, with a government that presses buttons and watches nothing happen.
Meanwhile, after ‘Milei-nnials’ there is no Gen ‘Zzz’. The West’s streets and universities echo with Cliché Guevara calls for the end of racism, imperialism, colonialism, and capitalism - https://pub.raboresearch.rabobank.com/public/r/3s7CJhrIHsT41EvbC6FGag/1UL0+jNnANxlh4AAPV3+nA/Efcru+1v_cg8rq2UTLNb6w
. Recall T-shirt staple Che killed hundreds of people, by the way.
Outside the West, China is embracing Marxist Common Prosperity, which US executives are prepared to give a standing ovation to at $40,000 a head dinners, as Russia tries to make itself great again on the map. It’s not the only one - Iran has its own regional agenda. (Note Iran-backed https://pub.raboresearch.rabobank.com/public/r/TZMeb61KKYvbLXUQFjNo1Q/1UL0+jNnANxlh4AAPV3+nA/Efcru+1v_cg8rq2UTLNb6w
.)
In short, we see not just emerging radical libertarianism but nationalism, fascism, imperialism, Marxism, and Islamism – and radical fusions of many of the above into a new angry melange.
The sensible center that repressed such 20th, 19th, 18th, 17th (and 9th, 8th, and 7th)-century thinking for a few decades is now unable to help us. Indeed, you can’t repress ‘-isms’ with inappropriate policy any more than you can repress market volatility with inappropriate state interventions, as Milei would no doubt argue. Both attempts just change volatility’s form, and it comes back even worse.
Understand that our new, old ‘-isms’ didn’t come roaring back randomly; people didn’t just get tired of winning; history might run in circles or waves, but not on autopilot; and you can’t keep blaming Trump or Brexit in a vacuum. Instead, as I’ve argued since 2016, the sensible center’s policy utopianism ensured other ‘-isms’ would re-emerge eventually. And now what once worked as policy no longer does:
Fiscal austerity? Great! Except the welfare state is already collapsing, radicalising voters, as the https://pub.raboresearch.rabobank.com/public/r/XxyXEJMU7jBUINeSsj1Gtw/1UL0+jNnANxlh4AAPV3+nA/Efcru+1v_cg8rq2UTLNb6w
says green spending needs to be TEN TIMES what it is now to hit crucial targets. And defense spending needs to leap everywhere too. Indeed, on Bloomberg yesterday, Niall Ferguson asked, ‘What if we had a new cold war — and we were the Soviets?’, as he warned, “For some months, I had been worried that, despite reassuring words from my Chinese sources, a plan was being hatched in Beijing to impose such a blockade in January, using the Taiwanese election to furnish a pretext.” That’s something to consider as the KMT/TPP alliance for the Taiwanese presidential election unraveled since Ferguson wrote his article.
Rate cuts? Great! Except it could mean a surge in commodity prices and higher structural inflation given the political and geopolitical state of play. Argentina may be walking away from joining the BRICS now, but a Great Game with BRICS commodities and Chinese goods vs. Western financialisation and the US dollar is clearly underway.
Make house prices rise again? Great! If we want to entrench emerging feudalism and ensure Gen Z who already moved from being fans of Harry Potter to Hamas next move to ISIS.
Free trade? Great! Except it often means deindustrialisation, inequality, openness to coercion, and military weakness.
Dedollarise? Great! Except that will shatter the global system entirely.
Dollarise? Great! Except you lose most key forms of economic sovereignty.
Reverse Brexit? Great! But the UK would still be a member of an EU grappling with mass legal and illegal immigration, unaffordable housing, crumbling civil services, high public debt, high inflation, high rates, weak economic growth, an energy crisis, deindustrialisation, two nearby wars, social and political polarisation, and structural geopolitical weakness leading to long-run economic decline.
Of course, markets try to ‘find a way’. Argentinean assets traded in New York soared Monday despite (or because of) the radical policy proposed. The same thing happened when Trump won in 2016: initial shock and sell-off, then a rally. Clearly sometimes the sensible center is not what people really want even when they say they do.
Then again, sometimes there is no way to find good news. Markets haven’t liked China’s Common Prosperity, and wait for Western Keynesianism that won’t arrive. Wall Street is shocked social justice can end up in antisemitism even when measuring which demographics make up what percentage of which professions was always a trapdoor to it. Wait until they grapple with what “dekulakisation” implies as it re-emerges in the circles backing “decolonisation”.
In Argentina’s case, @RobinWigg tweets: “I never thought leopards would eat MY face," says investor who bet on the Leopards Eating Faces Party's president-elect turning around an economic basket case with policies out of a teenage libertarian's notebook.”
In short, expect more radical populism and more radical market volatility as Milei-nnials and no Gen Zzz grapple with which way to yank the policy steering wheel to try to avoid what they see as a cliff ahead.
(And, in the background, enjoy the clown-show drama around OpenAI: how can so much artificial intelligence be shrouded by so much lack of human intelligence?)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 11/21/2023 - 12:55
Futures, Treasuries Rise Amid Growing Rate Cut Bets As Oil Bear Market Signals Recession
Futures, Treasuries Rise Amid Growing Rate Cut Bets As Oil Bear Market Signals Recession
US equity futures rose and bond yields fell as the historic squeeze that started more than two weeks ago among the systematic and hedge fund communities is still going on after this week’s soft inflation and jobs data fueled conviction that aggressive tightening are finally at an end. As of 8:00am, S&P futures were 0.3% higher while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%, both on course for a third weekly gain after Joe Biden signed the stopgap bill to extend government funding into early 2024 late last night, kicking a politically-divisive debate over federal spending into a presidential election year. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index jumped 1%, on track for an almost 3% rally this week. Asian stocks declined as Alibaba Group scrapped plans to spin off and list its $11 billion cloud business, dragging Chinese shares lower. Bonds climbed, putting the US 10-year yield on course to drop more than 25 basis points this week as markets now price a full percentage point of rate cuts next year from the ECB; the dollar slumped as the yen spiked to the highest level since Oct 31. Oil is headed for a fourth weekly loss after sinking into a bear market, in part as supply exceeds expectations.
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In premarket trading, Gap soared 17% after reporting third-quarter profit that exceeded forecasts. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Alibaba ADRs fall 3.3%, extending Thursday’s decline after the internet giant called off a spinoff of its cloud unit, citing tightening US curbs on advanced chips for China.
Applied Materials declines 7.3% after a report that the largest US maker of chipmaking machinery faces a US criminal investigation for allegedly violating export restrictions to China.
ChargePoint tumbles 29% after the company replaced longtime CEO Pasquale Romano, elevating its chief operating officer following a sharp drop in the shares of the electric-vehicle charging company.
Coherus Biosciences gains 9% after Baird initiated coverage with a bullish rating, saying the company’s broad commercial pipeline has positioned it for accelerating growth.
Li Auto ADRs rise 3.8% after news that the Chinese carmaker and Wuxi AppTec will join the Hang Seng Index.
This week’s soft inflation and jobs data in the US has fueled conviction that the policy-tightening cycles from the Federal Reserve and other central banks are finally at an end and that rate cuts are coming. That view helped drive $23.5 billion into stock funds in the week through Nov. 15, the second-biggest inflows of the year, BofA's Michael Hartnett said.
But there are signs the rate hikes are finally crimping economic growth. Oil prices dropped into a bear market, down 20% from their September highs while the CEO of Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, said on Thursday he sees potential for deflation.
“Eventually, we will get rate cuts, but as we see company earnings weakening and consumers cutting back on spending, that’s initially not going to be good for markets,” said Melissa R Brown, global head of research at Qontigo GmbH.
Meanwhile, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who four weeks ago correctly recommended to go long ahead of a tactical rally, said that technical and macroeconomic headwinds are building and investors should offload risky assets after the recent gains, https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-just-bought-most-us-stocks-10-day-period-record-party-ending
. While easier financial conditions — with yields dropping to 4% from 5% — have spurred risk appetite, a further slide to 3% would be perceived as recessionary, Hartnett said. A slew of central bankers from the ECB, Bank of England and Fed are due to speak on Friday and traders will be watching for possible pushback against rate-cut expectations from policy makers.
European stocks rose as investors ramp up bets on interest-rate cuts next year, while bonds also benefit. The Stoxx 600 is up 1.1% with all 20 sectors in the green: real estate and mining stocks leading gains while personal care and technology shares are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
Vestas shares rise as much as 3.5%, after the Danish wind turbine manufacturer was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan. The broker says the company is turning the corner as it reported onshore book-to-bill figures that underpin growth for 2024
Orsted gains as much as 3.3%, after Citigroup opens a 3-month positive catalyst watch on the energy company, saying it welcomes a number of events coming in the short term
Delivery Hero rises as much as 2.6%, as the potential acquisition of the company’s Foodpanda brand by Meituan is expected to be a positive for the German food delivery company, according to Barclays
Remy Cointreau rises as much as 5.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux raised the rating of the French spirits company due to its attractive valuation and positive growth prospects
Eiffage gains as much as 3.3%, the most in a month, after the French construction group signed a contract with French utility EDF worth more than €4b for the main civil engineering works for a pair of EPR2-type nuclear power plants
Volvo Car shares tumble as much as 14%, to a record low, after Geely announced that it would sell around $350 million of its stake in the company due to investor concerns about the automaker’s limited free float
London Stock Exchange Group falls as much as 1.6%, the worst performer on FTSE 100 on Friday, as a failure to upgrade earnings guidance in a statement ahead of Friday’s capital markets day disappoints analysts
Generali falls as much as 2.6%, the most intraday since Oct. 20, as analysts highlight a Solvency ratio miss for the Italian insurer that overshadows a slight beat in nine-month operating profit, driven by the Life business
Earlier int he session, Asian stocks were undermined by a 10% drop in Alibaba Group Holding, which scrapped plans to list its $11 billion cloud unit as a fight between the US and China for technological dominance escalates. Meanwhile, Chinese billionaire Li Shufu’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. sold a $350 million stake in Volvo Car AB, responding to investor concerns about the automaker’s limited free float. Volvo Car’s stock tumbled as much as 14% in European trading.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid heavy losses in Alibaba shares after it scrapped its cloud business spinoff due to US chip restrictions and with energy names reeling from the tumble in oil prices.
Australia's ASX 200 marginally declined with notable underperformance in the energy sector after oil prices slumped to their lowest since July although the downside in the index was cushioned by resilience in miners and defensives.
Nikkei 225 was indecisive before moving higher amid a lack of fresh catalysts and after balanced comments from BoJ Governor Ueda.
Key stock gauges in India fell on Friday, weighed down by shadow lenders and banks, which tumbled after the country’s central bank tightened rules to check a surge in risky loans. The S&P BSE Sensex Index fell 0.3% to 65,794.73 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slid 0.2%. The Sensex was still up for the week, rising 0.8% to mark the third week of gains.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3% as the greenback declines for its second session of losses versus all its G-10 rivals after a rise in US jobless claims saw markets grow more confident the Federal Reserve is done hiking.
USD/JPY fell as much as 0.8% to 149.53 as retreating Treasury yields eased pressure on the Japanese yen; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested he’s determined to keep stimulus unchanged
GBP/USD fell as much as 0.3% to 1.2374 before paring losses, after weak UK retail sales data saw traders price 85bps of BOE rate hikes next year; gilts outperformed with yields down 9-11bps across the curve
In rates, Treasury yields were richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve after touching lowest levels since September, paced by bigger rally in gilts after the release of softer-than-forecast UK retail sales data for October. 10-year TSY yields were around 4.405%, richer by ~3bp vs Thursday close, after touching 4.377%. Bunds also rally, with German 10-year yields falling by 7bps. UK 10-year borrowing costs drop 11bps as gilts got an added boost from soft UK retail sales data. The US session includes four Fed speakers, while some investors may have one eye on Monday’s 20-year bond auction, adding some supply pressure to Friday’s trading.
In commodities, oil was headed for a fourth weekly loss after sinking into a bear market, in part as supply exceeds expectations. Crude futures advanced, with WTI rising 1.1% to trade near $73.70, Spot gold gains 0.6%.
Looking to the day ahead now, US economic data includes October housing starts/building permits (8:30am) and November Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Wunsch and Cipollone, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, and the Fed’s Collins, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Greene.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,531.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 455.25
MXAP little changed at 160.83
MXAPJ down 0.6% to 500.39
Nikkei up 0.5% to 33,585.20
Topix up 0.9% to 2,391.05
Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 17,454.19
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,054.37
Sensex down 0.3% to 65,806.24
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,049.39
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,469.85
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.53%
Euro little changed at $1.0854
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $78.15/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.9% to $78.14/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,991.74
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.26
Top Overnight News
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that there are both positives and negatives to the weak yen’s impact, suggesting he’s determined to keep stimulus unchanged for now despite heightened concerns over the yen. BBG
For the first time in years, a Chinese leader desperately needed a few things from the United States. Mr. Xi’s list at the summit started with a revival of American financial investments in China and a break in the series of technology export controls that have, at least temporarily, crimped Beijing’s ability to make the most advanced semiconductors and the artificial intelligence breakthroughs they enable. NYT
Hyundai customers who want to skip going to a dealership will have a new option next year: shopping on Amazon.com. The South Korean automaker announced the move Thursday with Amazon at the Los Angeles Auto Show. Starting in 2024, U.S. auto dealers will be able to sell new vehicles on the tech company’s platform, making Hyundai the first automotive brand to offer such an option for customers. WSJ
The ECB’s decision to halt interest rate increases at its October meeting is fully justified by a slowdown in inflation, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. BBG
Iran’s top diplomat has revealed that Tehran told the US through back channels that it did not want the Israel-Hamas war to spread further, but also warned Washington that regional conflict could be unavoidable if Israeli attacks on Gaza continue. FT
UK retail sales fell unexpectedly in October, adding to the impression that a string of interest-rate hikes designed to beat down inflation is beginning to stymie economic activity. The volume of goods sold in stores and online dropped 0.3%, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. That follows a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in September, when unusually warm weather held back spending on clothing. BBG
Rate-cut bets are back after soft inflation and US jobs data fueled conviction that central banks are done with aggressive tightening cycles. Markets now price a full point of ECB rate reductions next year and bets on BOE cuts by June may be brought forward after a surprise drop in retail sales. BBG
GOOGL is delaying the release of its new conversational AI program, Gemini, from Nov until Q1:24, the latest setback for the company this area. The Information
New York City will hold off on hiring new police officers, reduce trash pickups, make cuts to the city’s pre-kindergarten programs and lower spending on services for migrants to slash the city’s $110.5 billion budget. The 5% reduction will affect services for many New Yorkers and effectively trim the city’s police force to its smallest size since the 1990s by summer 2025, city budget officials said. BBG
Foreigners no longer have an insatiable appetite for U.S. government debt. That’s bad news for Washington. The U.S. Treasury market is in the midst of major supply and demand changes. The Federal Reserve is shedding its portfolio at a rate of about $60 billion a month. Overseas buyers who were once important sources of demand—China and Japan in particular—have become less reliable lately. WSJ
A more detailed breakdown of overnight news from Newsquawk
Asia-PAcific stocks traded mixed with sentiment clouded after the recent soft US data and tumble in oil prices. ASX 200 marginally declined with notable underperformance in the energy sector after oil prices slumped to their lowest since July although the downside in the index was cushioned by resilience in miners and defensives. Nikkei 225 was indecisive before moving higher amid a lack of fresh catalysts and after balanced comments from BoJ Governor Ueda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid heavy losses in Alibaba shares after it scrapped its cloud business spinoff due to US chip restrictions and with energy names reeling from the tumble in oil prices.
Top Asian News
China President Xi said China will continue to improve foreign investment mechanisms and is to further shorten the negative list on foreign investment. Furthermore, Chinese President Xi told Japanese PM Kishida that peaceful coexistence, lasting friendship and cooperation will serve the fundamental interests of Chinese and Japanese people, while he added that both sides should focus on common interests and properly handle differences.
Japanese PM Kishida said there are many areas of common interests as well as issues between Japan and China, while he was able to reaffirm that they will work towards a strategic relationship based on mutual interests. Kishida also stated that he sought a calm response from China regarding the release of Fukushima wastewater and conveyed strong concerns regarding the situation over the disputed Senkaku Islands, as well as China's increasing joint activities with Russia near Japanese waters.
BoJ Governor Ueda said Japan's economy is recovering moderately which will likely continue and that they will patiently maintain easy policy, while he noted they cannot say yet with conviction that the price target will be stably and sustainably met. Ueda said they will consider ending YCC and the negative rate if they can expect inflation to stably sustain the target and in what order they will change policy will depend on economic, price and market developments at the time. Furthermore, he said making strong commitments now on how they could change policy could have unintended consequences in markets and the BoJ does not have a specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs, while he also stated they cannot say now when the BoJ will change ultra-easy policy.
PBoC has reportedly asked some lenders to cap interest rates on an interbank debt instrument this month, according to Reuters sources, citing rising short-term yields on bank debt and strains in funding markets. Some large-sized commercial lenders were reportedly told not to sell negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) at very high rates, according to the sources.
PBoC and Financial Regulators hold a meeting on financial issues; will strive to stabilise the property market; pledges to stabilise credit growth to strengthen the economy.
Head of Japan's largest trade union confederation says it will seek wage hikes for workers beyond 2024.
European bourses in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, and on track to conclude the week with upside in excess of 2.0% for the broader Stoxx 600, gains which largely derive from the US CPI and subsequent pronounced dovish price action. Sectors are higher across the board with Health Care, Real Estate & Basic Resources leading while Autos remain green but closer to stalling after reports around Volvo. Stateside, futures are also in the green but action is much more contained thus far, ES/NQ +0.2%, while the RTY +1.3% outperforms in a recovery from Thursday's data prints. Tesla (TSLA) is set to raise prices in China again next week, according to Cailianshe citing an industry insider. "This will be the fourth time for Tesla to raise prices in China so far this year.", according to National Business Daily.
Top European News
ECB's Villeroy says inflation has been lowered considerably and the recent policy pause is justified, via the ACPR conference.
ECB's Holzmann says "please don't think that this is the last rate hike and there won't be any more"; ECB " may yet be forced to raise rates further if inflation shocks occur", via Econostream.
FX
DXY back on the brink of 104.00/multiple lows as yields crumble to the benefit of the Yen especially, USD/JPY retreats from 150.77 to sub-149.50 through stops at 150.00; USD/JPY currently near 149.25 lows.
Sterling stumbles after a slump in UK retail sales, but Cable back above 1.2400 as Dollar reverses sharply.
Euro retests key tech resistance vs Buck above 1.0850 amidst another stack of option expiries, spanning 1.0800-1.0910.
Yuan breaks higher as Greenback weakens and PBoC moves to ease funding squeeze.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1728 vs exp. 7.2473 (prev. 7.1724)
Fixed Income
Debt futures fly into the weekend as bullish/dovish impulses garner more momentum.
Bunds extend to 131.74 and the 10-year yield hovers above 2.50%.
Gilts reach 97.99 after dismal UK consumption data.
T-note towards the top of 109-08+/108-22 range ahead of US housing metrics and another host of Fed speakers.
Commodities
WTI and Brent Jan futures have been picking up after consolidating around USD 73.25/bbl and USD 77.50/bbl respectively overnight; though the benchmarks remain in relative proximity to Thursday's troughs with substantial ground to recoup before that session's peaks.
Spot gold inches closer towards USD 2,000/oz as it trades just under the 6th November peak of USD 1,993.15/oz whilst spot silver topped USD 24/oz once again.
Base metals are softer amid broader weakness in industrial commodities with 3M LME copper briefly dipping under USD 8,200/t, Dalian iron ore continued to slip after the week's market intervention by China; though, a reported recovery in steel demand stemmed the downside.
Iran set December Iranian light crude price to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 4.00/bbl, according to a Reuters source.
Geopolitics
Syrian air defences confronted enemy targets and shot down Israeli missiles fired from Golan Heights.
US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Israeli Minister Gantz and discussed efforts to accelerate the transit of humanitarian aid into Gaza, as well as efforts to prevent the conflict from widening and to secure the release of hostages. Blinken also stressed the urgent need for affirmative steps to de-escalate tensions in the West Bank including confronting rising levels of settler extremist violence.
Iraqi armed factions say they targeted the Harir base (hosts US forces) in northern Iraq, according to Al Arabiya
"A truce agreement is near, including the entry of aid and release of 50 prisoners held by Hamas", via Al Arabiya sources
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.47m, revised 1.47m
08:30: Oct. Housing Starts, est. 1.35m, prior 1.36m
08:30: Oct. Building Permits MoM, est. -1.4%, prior -4.4%, revised -4.5%
08:30: Oct. Housing Starts MoM, est. -0.6%, prior 7.0%
11:00: Nov. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior -1
Central Bank Speakers
08:45: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Payments
08:45: Fed’s Collins Delivers Welcoming Remarks
09:30: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Frankfurt
09:45: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Economy
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Speculation about a dovish pivot grew louder over the last 24 hours, as a bunch of negative data added to the sense that the Fed was done hiking rates. Time will tell whether that proves the case, but for now at least, it meant the 2yr Treasury yield (-7.4bps) almost closed at its lowest level since August, whilst investors moved to expect more aggressive rate cuts for 2024, with just under 100bps now priced in by the Fed’s December meeting. That narrative then got an added boost from a slump in oil prices, with Brent Crude (-4.63%) closing at its lowest level since July, which in turn offered fresh support to the sense that inflation was heading lower.
The initial catalyst for these moves were the latest jobless claims data from the US. That showed initial claims spiking up to their highest since August, at 231k (vs. 220k expected), whilst the continuing claims hit their highest since late-2021, at 1.865m (vs. 1.843m expected). 45 minutes later, that was then followed up by the industrial production release for October, which fell by a bigger-than-expected -0.6% (vs. -0.4% expected). And in another 45 minutes, we found out that the NAHB’s housing market index had fallen to 34 in November (vs. 40 expected), which was the lowest reading since last December. So this all added up to a more downbeat picture on the economy than previously thought.
This softening in the data has led to growing hopes for a soft landing with a smooth decline in inflation. But the problem is that if we do get a hard landing, then the data will initially soften in a way that may appear like a soft landing at first. So at some point we’d need to see a stabilisation in measures like the continuing jobless claims and the unemployment rate, as the former is now at its highest since late-2021, and the latter is now at its highest level since January 2022.
For now at least, markets are mostly taking the more positive interpretation, and November so far has seen one of the strongest performances for global markets of 2023. That’s been aided by expectations of more dovish central banks, and yesterday saw investors bring forward their expectations for rate cuts yet again. For instance, by the close fed funds futures were pricing a 35% likelihood of a cut as soon as the March meeting, and a 86% likelihood of a cut by the May meeting. Likewise at the ECB, markets were pricing in an 87% likelihood of a cut by April. So market pricing is suggesting it’s more-likely-than-not that we’ll have seen a rate cut from the Fed and the ECB in Q2 of next year.
When it came to central bankers themselves, there was no sign that the rhetoric was shifting towards imminent cuts. For instance, Cleveland Fed President Mester said that they needed to see evidence that inflation was on a downward path, and that easing policy “is just not part of the conversation right now”. Separately, Governor Cook said that momentum in demand “could keep the economy and labor market tight and slow the pace of disinflation”, but she also acknowledged the risk “of an unnecessarily sharp decline in economic activity and employment”.
For markets, the more dovish expectations of investors led to a fresh rally in sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, that saw the 10yr yield fall -9.6bps to its lowest level since September, at 4.44%, whilst the 2yr yield was down -7.4bps to 4.84%. In Europe it was much the same story, with the rally seeing yields on 10yr bunds (-5.4bps), OATs (-5.7bps) and BTPs (-8.9bps) all move lower. And the 2yr German yield (-6.3bps) even fell back to a 3-month low.
Another factor adding to the positive mood on inflation was the latest decline in oil prices yesterday, with Brent Crude down -4.63% to $77.42/bbl, whilst WTI fell -4.90% to $72.90/bbl. In both cases that’s their lowest level since early July, and we’ve also seen evidence that lower energy prices are already filtering through to retail prices. For example, the AAA’s daily gasoline price tracker in the US was down to $3.342/gallon on Wednesday, which is its lowest level since January. In part, those declines are thanks to concerns about economic demand, particularly given the weaker global data over recent weeks. But they also follow a Wednesday report from the US Energy Information Administration saying that crude inventories were at their highest level since August .
When it came to equities, there was a more mixed performance after the data releases and various earnings announcements with large caps outperforming. That meant the S&P 500 (+0.12%) posted a modest gain to close at its highest level since September 1, with insurance (+1.24%) and software (+1.17%) firms posting strong gains while energy stocks saw the worst sectoral performance thanks to the sharp decline in oil and gas prices. At the company level, Cisco Systems (-9.83%) was the worst performer in the index following the release of its weaker revenue forecast after the previous day’s close. And the second-worst performer was Walmart (-8.09%), which came as they struck a cautious outlook on the consumer. Small-cap stocks struggled in particular with the Russell 2000 down -1.52%. European equities put in a weaker performance than the US, with the STOXX 600 down -0.72%.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets are mostly falling this morning, with Alibaba down -10.08% after they said they would not spin off its cloud business. That makes it the worst performer in the Hang Seng today, with the overall index down -2.13%. Other indices have also lost ground this morning, including the CSI 300 (-0.51%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.28%) and the KOSPI (-0.85%). However, the Nikkei (+0.27%) has advanced somewhat, and US equity futures are pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.09%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK retail sales for October, along with US housing starts and building permits for October. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and the ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann, Vujcic, Nagel, Wunsch and Cipollone, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, and the Fed’s Collins, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, and the BoE’s Greene.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 11/17/2023 - 08:11
"This Is The End-Process That We've Been Softened Up For..."
"This Is The End-Process That We've Been Softened Up For..."
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/light-in-the-darkness/
“I hope you realise the ideological brain worms possessing group narcissists preclude condemnation of anything done in the name of the cause no matter how evil. The ends justify the means — no matter how depraved. This is why you can’t reason with them. Ideology binds and blinds.”
- Aimee Therese on X
The sun is low on the horizon all day long now, and darkness creeps in like a home invasion of your mind. Demons descend through a red and black sky and no help is on the way. Our country is so mentally hog-tied trying to unravel the twisted events of just a few years past that it has no mojo left for rationally anticipating the events of just a few years ahead. Have you ever felt more alone?
?itok=Yqpvu9s4
This is the end-process that we’ve been softened up for: the inability to think and plan. The gigantic “intel community” evolved from something intended to act as sensitized antennae for detecting threats against our republic into what is now a remorseless mind-fucking operation against our republic. That word, by the way, derives from the Latin res publica: the public thing, a society that literally belongs to the people, who decide its affairs. Now, so much is mysteriously decided for us, and not in any good way.
It’s no wonder more than half the country can’t think straight, and it’s a whopping irony that this group comprises most of our country’s thinking class —the bureaucratic managers, the professors, the curators, the editors, the reporters lost in mis-reporting. This group used to play a critical role in the res publica: to earnestly determine what is true and what is real, and to present us with a way of understanding all that so we can think and plan. They appear to be captured by malign forces. The scribes are hard at work defending every act of official malice. The dishonesty at work is epic. You need a decoder ring to keep your mind right.
You are probably desperate to understand why this is happening — how, for instance, a blatantly corrupt and ignorant attorney general in New York state can get away with bringing a politically-motivated nonsense case against the leading presidential candidate in a courtroom ruled by a judge who acts like a jester in a Shakespeare play. New York AG Letitia James gets away with it because the flagship organ of the thinking class, The New York Times, is in on the gambit. But why?
We struggle to sort this out.
One explanation is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has infiltrated the management of our country at every level so as to eventually conquer our territory for its resources while eliminating or enslaving the population?
Surely, the CCP has made significant inroads, starting with the successful bribery and compromise of “Joe Biden,” probably other elected officials, too, in placing many CCP agents in the vast array of university research departments, NGOs, PACs, and lobbying gangs, and extending to the purchase of vital businesses and farmland to prepare the gameboard for eventual takeover. My opinion is they’ve accomplished a good bit of this, but it’s not the answer you’re seeking.
Another popular idea out there is that a sinister cartel or cabal composed of the World Economic Forum, the WHO, the EU, and a claque of super-rich megalomaniacs (e.g., Bill Gates, George Soros, Mark Zuckerberg) trying to usher in the so-called “transhumanist” next chapter of human history.
This scheme is so full of preposterous contradictions that it remains hard to take seriously. The main one is that their engineered collapse of techno-industrial civilization would destroy the very network of complex systems that might support their supposed cyborg nirvana, especially a reliable electric grid. Secondarily, collapse would result not in centralizing power but just the opposite, re-localizing power away from the center, negating the possibility of global rule.
A third theory is that the USA has somehow gone “communist.”
The universities have, for sure, but in a most half-assed way imaginable that presents more as a case of collective mental illness than a true political ideology. Higher education has lately enjoyed stupendous subsidies and revenues that funnel down to the miserable cat-ladies who have taken over the faculty department chairs, plus the deans and president’s offices. The Niagara of grants and lavish salaries has funded the dissemination of incoherent cat-lady ideas, such as the foundational notion that all men are hopelessly defective except the ones who pretend to be women or vice-versa. Such postulations lead to ridiculous actions like the drag queen story hour, or men competing in women’s swim competitions. These actions-and-effects are “communistic” only insofar as the induce some Marxist-Gramscian overthrow of normality (i.e., a coherent cultural consensus) in order to usher in the utopia of perfect social equity, where nobody is allowed to do better than anybody else — that is, a society of cat-ladies (plus men pretending to be cat-ladies), all equally miserable.
Are the editors and reporters of The New York Times all bought off by the CCP, Soros, Gates? I doubt it. That’s not what’s going on here. And the same goes for the Intel Community, much of the rest of the executive branch of the US government, the various “blue” state and blue city governments, and the great social media companies. Are all the employees of these vast bureaucracies dedicated communists? Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha….
What’s going on is that all these players are now desperate to evade the blame for and consequences of their many crimes. Hundreds of top bureaucrats and elected officials will be liable for prosecution for monstrous acts of perfidy and treason against our republic and its citizens. The New York Times and other compliant news outlets that lied about everything from Russian collusion to election fraud to the safety of Covid-19 vaccines to protect their fumbling allies in power are desperate to save their reputations — though that will be impossible as the truth eventually unfolds, and it will. Their knowing lies did real and lasting harm to the public thing.
Take heart in these darkening days. The light will not be extinguished. It will return, as everything does in this universe of endless cycles. A nation turned upside down will find its feet again. The wicked will answer. The counter-revolution has begun. You are not alone.
* * *
Support his blog by visiting https://www.patreon.com/JamesHowardKunstler
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 11/13/2023 - 20:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/end-process-weve-been-softened
German Gov't Agrees To Bailout Giant Loss-Making Wind Farm, UK Increases Subsidies
German Gov't Agrees To Bailout Giant Loss-Making Wind Farm, UK Increases Subsidies
about mounting losses amid a meltdown across wind and solar industries.
Three people familiar with the talks said that Siemens Energy's top shareholder, Siemens AG, with a 25.1% stake, is prepared to provide some guarantees. Details are still scant, and nothing has been decided, as an agreement needs to be formally drawn up and supported by all stakeholders.
?itok=emG99wT9
said Siemens Energy was discussing state guarantees with the German government.
Here's more on the report:
As a result, Siemens Energy fears it will struggle to secure guarantees from banks, and has approached the government and Siemens to obtain a guarantee framework, business news weekly WirtschaftsWoche said.
The weekly, which first reported the talks along with Spiegel magazine, said Siemens Energy is seeking up to 15 billion euros in guarantees.
The German state would assume liability for 80% of an initial 10 billion euro funding tranche, while banks would be liable for the remaining 20%, WirtschaftsWoche said.
A Siemens AG spokesperson said the company remained in "very constructive talks to define the best possible solution in the interests of all parties involved."
Siemens Energy shares in Germany have crashed more than 70% since mid-June as it has abandoned its 2023 profit outlook after a review of its wind turbine unit revealed a billion euro problem. Shares were up 5% on Reuters' report today.
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Meanwhile, a financial crisis continues to accelerate across the wind industry, with the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turbulent-times-bidens-offshore-wind-farms-orsted-ceo-warns-abandoning-us-projects-real
in wind has spread to solar as several solar power company stocks crashed on sliding demand.
And so, hot on the heels of Germany's bailout of Siemens, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-09/uk-prepares-to-hike-wind-farm-prices-for-struggling-developers?sref=ZMFHsM5Z
reports that the UK government is preparing to offer significantly higher subsidies for new offshore wind farms to get the country’s clean-power strategy back on track after developers shunned a previous auction, because the price was too low for offshore wind to be viable.
Denmark’s https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ORSTED:DC
.
While higher subsidies in the next auction round, known as AR6, may well reinvigorate offshore wind development, it will likely feed through to increased electricity costs for consumers still burdened with sky-high bills in the wake of last year’s energy crisis.
The energy transition to renewables across the Western world is cracking. Remember, the Biden Administration's Inflation Reduction Act was all about 'sustainable' wind power... Time for another bailout?
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 11/10/2023 - 02:45
BLM Branch Co-Founder's Election Bombshell: Trump "Best Candidate" For President
BLM Branch Co-Founder's Election Bombshell: Trump "Best Candidate" For President
Mark Fisher, co-founder of a Black Lives Matter (BLM) chapter in Rhode Island, is advocating for former President Donald Trump's return to the Oval Office in 2024—and insists he's far from being the only one in the BLM movement to feel this way.
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In a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwISzuMIg-w
with podcast host Kim Iversen, Mr. Fisher was asked to defend remarks he made earlier that President Trump is "the best candidate we have."
"Because everybody else sucks," Mr. Fisher replied, later praising President Trump for his straightforward approach and contrasting it with what perceives as the Democratic Party's hypocrisy.
Ms. Iversen sought to clarify Mr. Fisher's response, asking if he thought President Trump was simply the best of a bad lot and frankly "not that great either."
Mr. Fisher replied by highlighting his personal regard for President Trump—before adding that it's hard not to appreciate what the 45th president brings to the table given the shortcomings of the incumbent.
"I like Trump," he said, before adding: "I think right now, who we have sitting in the Oval Office is just a deep disappointment."
He expressed "disdain" for President Joe Biden, adding that he "really dislikes" Vice President Kamala Harris as well.
'The Tide Is Starting To Turn'
Reacting to Mr. Fisher's critical remarks about the incumbent and words of praise for the former president, Ms. Iversen suggested that her interviewee was probably a lone figure in the BLM movement who thinks this way.
"No," Mr. Fisher insisted. "I feel like the tide is starting to turn," he said, adding that he thinks "a lot of black people are starting to pivot off that Democratic plantation."
"For so long, we've been slaves to that," he added.
The concept of the Democrat "plantation" was discussed deeply in a New York Times bestseller written by political activist and social media personality Candace Owens, https://www.amazon.ca/Blackout-America-Second-Democrat-Plantation/dp/1982133279
"Blackout: How Black America Can Make Its Second Escape from the Democrat Plantation."
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Candace Owens speaks at the CPAC convention in National Harbor, Md., on March 1, 2019. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)
In her book, Ms. Owens argues that Democrat policies hurt, rather than help, the black community in America by pushing policies that perpetuate government dependency, a culture of victimhood, and miseducation.
"Their policies are basically racist policies," Mr. Fisher said of the Democrat Party's policies, which he argued "strike at the heart of the black family and the nuclear family, in general, and I believe Donald Trump is the opposite."
"He's going to tell you how it is, he's going to give it to you straight, he's not going to be a hypocrite and stab you in the back like the Democratic Party loves to do," he added.
Mr. Fisher resigned from his leadership position at BLM Rhode Island and is now the founder and executive director of Maryland's BLM Inc., a pro-entrepreneurship education and financial empowerment non-profit for African Americans and their communities.
'Lambs Led to Slaughter'
, Mr. Fisher expressed support for people who took part in the Jan. 6 Capitol breach and received harsh sentences while accusing U.S. legacy media of pushing narratives that sow division.
"They’re lambs led to slaughter, to be sacrificed as an example for all who might want to dissent in the future,” Mr. Fisher told The Epoch Times. "This is what the government does to those who express independent thought and want to stand up for what they believe."
In regards to the legacy media, he said they have an agenda to "stop us from uniting."
“It’s the same media that caused the division between all of these marginalized groups in the first place to keep us at each other’s throats,” he said.
Much like during his interview with Ms. Iversen, he also insisted that he's not the only one in the black community to support President Trump, although he added that many are afraid of being ridiculed so they keep their political views secret.
“They won’t say it in public in fear of backlash from the community because they have reputations, businesses, and relationships they don’t want to put in jeopardy,” he said. "But they’ll speak with their vote."
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Former President Donald Trump gestures after delivering remarks at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Bedminster, N.J., on June 13, 2023. (Ed Jones/AFP via Getty Images)
Mr. Fisher's latest remarks come as President Trump has widened his lead over President Biden in a new CNN poll, which puts support for the former president at 49 percent compared to the https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/white-house-responds-to-polls-that-show-biden-losing-to-trump-5525084
45 percent.
When the same poll was carried out at the end of August, President Trump led President Biden by 47 percent to 46 percent.
Besides polls, there have been other signs that the former president enjoys strong support among voters despite the fact that he faces numerous legal challenges that he says are political attacks.
Nevada real estate tycoon Robert Bigelow, the biggest donor to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign, said recently that he's now backing President Trump because he's the "strongest commander" and that's what America now needs in an increasingly chaotic world.
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Americans Traveling To Europe Now Forced To Take A New Step
Americans Traveling To Europe Now Forced To Take A New Step
(emphasis ours),
A new travel requirement for Americans visiting most European countries was delayed again to sometime in 2025, officials said.
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The requirement involves an online travel authorization through the European Travel Information and Authorization System, or ETIAS, and it applies to the visitors of 30 European countries. That includes popular destinations such as France, Spain, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Portugal.
Now, the system “will be ready to enter into operation in Spring 2025,” said a brief https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/jha/2023/10/19-20/
after a meeting of the Council of the European Union earlier this month. "The new roadmap for the delivery of the new IT architecture foresees that the Entry/Exit system will be ready to enter into operation in Autumn 2024," it also said.
In a recent update to the European Union website for ETIAS, it said that "mid-2025" is when the new travel requirements will go online. No applications are being processed or "are collected at this point," according to the https://travel-europe.europa.eu/etias/what-etias_en#etias-in-a-nutshell
.
Multiple reports noted that the system was supposed to go into effect in 2021, but it has been postponed several times since then.
It's not just travelers from the United States who will have to register online. Travelers from the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Israel, Mexico, and dozens of other countries—including some located on the European continent like Albania, Montenegro, and Ukraine—will have to adhere to the requirement.
The new system is being adopted by 27 countries in Europe’s Schengen Area as well as several others.
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The European Commission, the executive decision-making organization for the EU, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_18_4362
system years ago.
The system, meanwhile, will https://www.eulisa.europa.eu/Activities/Large-Scale-It-Systems/EES
the information and biometric data of travelers. That includes face scans and fingerprints, while stamp passports will be phased out.
This system, elaborated the European Union's https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen-borders-and-visa/smart-borders/entry-exit-system_en#:~:text=EES%20will%20replace%20the%20current,duration%20of%20their%20authorised%20stay).
, "will replace the current system of manual stamping of passports, which is time-consuming, does not provide reliable data on border crossings, and does not allow a systematic detection of over-stayers."
Travelers will have to fill out an ETIAS application form before traveling and pay a $7 fee. However, some applications may take several weeks if additional information is needed from the traveler, while some may have to obtain an interview, according to the EU website.
“We strongly advise you to obtain the ETIAS travel authorization before you buy your tickets and book your hotels,” said the EU website, adding that the authorization is valid for three years.
A European Commission https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-07/European%20Travel%20Information%20and%20Authorisation%20System-ETIAS-memo_en.pdf
that was sent out earlier this year about the new travel rules described ETIAS as a "largely automated IT system" and said the ETIAS travel authorization is "not a visa."
Problems?
Some officials have expressed alarm over the proposed new system.
Gareth Williams, a director at Eurostar—which operates trains to France from London—said that "we don’t currently see a practical solution. If we take the peak of August, up to 80 percent of people will have to go through the system," reported The Independent.
The new system will likely increase processing times at European airports. “If the [biometric] process is added to the entry process, careful logistic planning is crucial to avoid congestion,” Kuan-Huei Lee, associate professor of tourism at Singapore Institute of Technology, told National Geographic.
But, “If you forget to do it, you won’t board the plane,” Sofia Markovich, a travel advisor and founder of Sofia’s Travel, told CNBC earlier this month, referring to applying under ETIAS. “After 9/11, things changed in the world,” she added. “It’s really about keeping things safe and knowing who comes in and who goes out.”
“It’ll be a minor hassle, but it’s not unusual for countries to have entry requirements like this one,” Cameron Hewitt, content and editorial director at Rick Steves’ Europe, told the Washington Post. “It certainly shouldn’t cause anyone to rethink a trip to Europe. From what we know, ETIAS looks like it’ll simply be a manageable bit of red tape.”
The update comes as the U.S. State Department recently sent out a worldwide alert to Americans overseas due to an elevated possibility for terrorist attacks, coming in the midst of high tensions in the Middle East.
"Due to increased tensions in various locations around the world, the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests, the Department of State advises U.S. citizens overseas to exercise increased caution," the alert https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/worldwide-caution.html
earlier this month.
The issuance of the rare worldwide alert bulletin came after demonstrations and riots across the Middle East earlier this month in response to the conflict in Israel. The designated terrorist group Hamas attacked multiple areas in southern Israel, leading to an extensive bombing campaign in Gaza.
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"War Is A Racket" For These 25 'Defense' Companies
"War Is A Racket" For These 25 'Defense' Companies
Retired US Marine Corps Major General Smedley Butler said it first and said it best: "War is a racket. It always has been..."
But what often goes unsaid is his next sentences:
"It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives."
And indeed, every year, the world’s most powerful countries spend billions of dollars on so-called 'defense'.
But where does this money actually flow?
To gain insight, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-top-25-defense-companies-by-revenue/
.
Note that their graphic shows each company’s revenues from defense, and not total revenues. This is because many companies such as Boeing also generate revenue from non-defense related industries and sectors.
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Data and Country Highlights
The data we used to create this graphic is listed in the table below.
Company
Revenues from Defense (USD billions)
Defense share of total revenue (%)
🇺🇸 Lockheed Martin
$633
96%
🇺🇸 RTX Corp (formerly Raytheon Technologies)
$396
59%
🇺🇸 Northrop Grumman
$324
89%
🇨🇳 Aviation Industry Corporation of China
$310
37%
🇺🇸 Boeing
$308
46%
🇺🇸 General Dynamics
$304
77%
🇬🇧 BAE Systems
$252
96%
🇨🇳 China North Industries Group
$180
22%
🇺🇸 L3Harris Technologies
$139
82%
🇨🇳 China South Industries Group
$135
31%
🇮🇹 Leonardo
$129
83%
🇳🇱/🇫🇷 Airbus
$120
20%
🇺🇸 HII
$106
100%
🇫🇷 Thales
$96
52%
🇨🇳 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
$96
21%
🇺🇸 Leidos
$95
66%
🇺🇸 Amentum
$60
70%
🇺🇸 Booz Allen Hamilton
$59
64%
🇩🇪 Rheinmetall AG
$51
75%
🇫🇷 Dassault Aviation
$50
76%
🇮🇱 Elbit Systems
$50
90%
🇬🇧 Rolls-Royce
$49
31%
🇺🇸 Honeywell
$46
13%
🇫🇷 Naval Group
$46
100%
🇺🇸 General Electric
$44
6%
The U.S. and China are the most represented countries on this list, with 12 and four respective companies in the top 25.
Country Highlights: U.S.
The U.S. consistently has the world’s largest https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-largest-military-budgets-2022/
, so it’s no surprise that American companies dominate this ranking. Here are some interesting facts about the top three:
Lockheed Martin
Formed in 1995 by the merger of Lockheed Corporation and Martin Marietta
While primarily known for producing advanced fighter jets like the F-35, the company is also working with NASA on the https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/orion-spacecraft/
RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies)
Raytheon produces a wide range of military equipment, including the Javelin portable anti-tank missile system.
According to https://www.csis.org/analysis/will-united-states-run-out-javelins-russia-runs-out-tanks
, the U.S. has supplied 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine, equal to roughly one-third of its stock.
Northrop Grumman
Formed in 1994 by the merger of Northrop and Grumman Aerospace, this company is known for developing the B-2 stealth bomber.
In August 2023, the company opened an office in Taiwan to “accelerate access to the company’s technologies”.
Country Highlights: China
China’s top three companies in this ranking are all state-owned enterprises.
Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC)
AVIC is China’s largest aerospace and defense company, also ranking 150th in the Fortune Global 500 (2023).
Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, a subsidiary of AVIC, produces China’s first operational stealth fighter, the J-20.
China North Industries Group (CNIG)
CNIG does business internationally under the name Norinco Group.
In 2003, Norinco was sanctioned by the Bush administration for allegedly supplying Iran with missile technologies.
China South Industries Group (CSIG)
CSIG produces military vehicles, ammunitions, and other equipment.
The company also owns Changan Automobile, a major car brand in China and one of the https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-ev-production-byd-surpasses-tesla/
.
Other Highlights
Two European companies on this list that aren’t typically associated with the defense industry are Airbus and Rolls-Royce.
Airbus is one of the world’s largest producers of commercial airliners, and is https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-well-known-airlines-by-fleets/
alongside offerings from Boeing. When it comes to defense, Airbus produces a variety of military drones, fighters, and transports.
On the other hand, Rolls-Royce is a major supplier of aircraft and naval engines, and designs the nuclear propulsion systems for the UK’s submarine fleet.
It actually has no affiliation with Rolls-Royce Motor Cars, which is currently a subsidiary of BMW. The original company ran into financial difficulties in the 1970s, which led to the separation of the car and aero-engine businesses.
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The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths
The Veil Of Silence Over Excess Deaths
https://brownstone.org/articles/veil-of-silence-over-excess-deaths/
,
Around the world, there has been a deafening silence over excess deaths from governments and the mainstream media, who not so long ago were quite fixated on the daily death toll for Covid.
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On October 20th, a 30-minute adjourned debate (20 rejections later) on excess deaths in the UK House of Commons was finally secured by https://twitter.com/ABridgen
for North West Leicestershire and member of the Reclaim Party.
Bridgen began his speech to the sound of erupting cheers from the full, upper public gallery, in stark contrast to the almost empty chamber below.
Where were the hundreds of MPs who would normally sit shoulder to shoulder in the chamber? It appears, an increase in deaths of their constituents was not a pressing issue for them on that Friday afternoon.
We’ve experienced more excess deaths since July 2021 than in the whole of 2020, unlike the pandemic, however, these deaths are not disproportionately of the old, in other words, the excess deaths are striking down people in the prime of life but no-one seems to care. I fear history will not judge this house kindly.
Strikingly, excess deaths have been seen across all age groups, which Bridgen pointed out during his speech.
The graph below shows the pooled weekly total number of deaths for all ages, from 27 participating countries: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Germany (Berlin), Germany (Hesse), Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK (England), UK (Northern Ireland), UK (Scotland), and UK (Wales).
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According to the https://www.bmj.com/content/379/bmj.o2524
, ‘Excess deaths are calculated as the difference between current numbers of deaths and those in a baseline year, and the excess can differ depending on the baseline and methodology used.’
This important point on how excess can differ depending on the baseline used, was raised by Bridgen.
ONS Manipulating the Data, Again
Bridgen explained:
‘To understand if there is an ‘excess’ by definition, you need to estimate how many deaths would have been expected. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) used 2015-2019 as a baseline…Unforgivably, the UK ONS (Office for National Statistics) have included deaths in 2021, as part of their baseline calculation for expected deaths- as if there was anything normal about the deaths in 2021- by exaggerating the number of deaths expected, the number of excess deaths can be minimized.
Why would the ONS want do that?’
My early 2022 https://rumble.com/vu3pug-did-uk-office-of-national-statistics-manipulate-data-on-covid-deaths-by-vac.html
with Norman Fenton, professor of Risk Information Management at Queen Mary, University of London, revealed how the ONS had also been manipulating the data on deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status.
: ‘Deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status, England: deaths occurring between 2 January and 24 September 2021.’
The paper concluded that the ONS was guilty of ‘systematic miscategorisation of vaccine status’ and that the COVID-19 vaccines did not reduce all-cause mortality, but rather produced genuine spikes in all-cause mortality shortly after vaccination.
The Backlog of Unregistered Deaths
Bridgen went on to highlight a critical failure in how data on deaths are being collected.
‘There is a total failure to collect (never mind publish) data on deaths that are referred for investigation to the coroner. Why does this matter? A referral means that it can be many months and given the backlog, many years, before a death is formally registered. Needing to investigate a cause of death is fair enough. Failing to record when the death happened, is not. Because of this problem, we actually have no idea how many people died in 2021, even now. The problem is greatest for the younger age groups, where a higher proportion of deaths are investigated. This data failure is unacceptable.’
Excess Deaths in the Younger Age Groups
My investigative https://childrenshealthdefense.eu/children-health/the-tragedy-of-the-child-deaths-eus-3rd-damning-vaccine-safety-report-part-2/
into child deaths following Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine revealed there was an increase in deaths in the 0-14 age group, around the time the mRNA vaccine was authorised in children, 12-15 years of age.
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Bridgen drew attention to the fact that in a judicial review on a decision to vaccinate younger children, the ONS shockingly refused in court to give anonymised details (which they admitted was statistically significant) on the increase in excess deaths observed in the second half of 2021, for young adolescent males. Bridgen made the point that potentially even more excess deaths would have been observed, if those referred to the coroner had been included.
Excess Deaths Observed in Heavily Vaccinated Countries
In August 2023, fifteen EU Member States that recorded excess deaths, the highest rates were observed in Ireland (21.1 percent), Malta (16.9 percent), Portugal (12.7 percent) and the Netherlands (9.4 percent), according to Eurostat. It should be noted that, as of https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/
, Portugal had the highest COVID-19 vaccination rate in Europe having administered 272.78 doses per 100 people in the country, while Malta had administered 258.49 doses per 100.
Increase in Cardiac Arrests
Bridgen, brought attention to the fact that https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath
, diagnostic pathologist and co-chair of HART, was the first to highlight the increase in cardiac arrest calls after the vaccine rollout in May 2021.
Bridgen stated:
‘Ambulance data for England provides another clue. Ambulance calls for life-threatening emergencies were running at a steady 2,000 calls per day until the vaccine rollout. From then they rose to 2,500 daily, and calls have stayed at that level since.’
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Category 1: An immediate response to a life-threatening condition, such as cardiac or respiratory arrest.
The Anomalies of the Pfizer Clinical Trial
Bridgen shared the fact that:
Four participants in the vaccine group of the Pfizer trial died from cardiac arrest compared to only one in the placebo group. Overall there were 21 https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download
about the reporting of deaths in this trial, with the deaths in the vaccine group taking much longer to report than those in the placebo group. That is highly suggestive of a significant bias in what was supposed to be a blinded trial.
An Israeli study clearly showed an https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-10928-z
in cardiac hospital attendances among 18-39 year olds that correlated with vaccination not covid.
Australia, the Perfect Control Group
Bridgen explained that Australia had almost no covid when vaccines were introduced making it the perfect control group.
The state of South Australia had only had 1,000 https://www.covid19data.com.au/states-and-territories
around 1,300 emergency cardiac presentations a month. With the vaccine roll-out to the under 50s, this rocketed reaching 2,172 cases in November 2021 in this age group alone, which was 67% more than usual.
Overall there were 17,900 South Australians who had a cardiac emergency in 2021 https://x.com/justsee/status/1621353135083241473?s=20
.
How the Regulators Have Failed
The regulators also missed the fact that in the Pfizer trial the vaccine was made for the trial participants in a highly controlled environment, in stark contrast to the manufacturing process used for the public – which was based on completely different https://www.bmj.com/content/378/bmj.o1731/rr-2
. That means there was never a trial on the Pfizer product actually rolled out to the public, and that product has never even been compared to the product that was actually trialled.
The vaccine mass production processes use vats of Escherichia Coli and presents a risk of contamination with DNA from the bacteria, as well as bacterial cell walls, which can cause dangerous reactions. This is not theoretical; there is now sound evidence that has been replicated by several labs across the world that the mRNA vaccines were contaminated by significant amounts of DNA which far exceeded the usual permissible levels. Given that this DNA is enclosed in a lipid nanoparticle delivery system, it is arguable that even the permissible levels would have been too high. These lipid nanoparticles are known to enter every organ of the body. As well as this https://x.com/MaryanneDemasi/status/1705049347573071941?s=20
causing some of the acute adverse reactions that have been seen, there is a serious risk of this foreign bacterial DNA inserting itself into human DNA. Will anyone investigate? No they won’t.
The BBC’s Role
How ironic that the BBC has chosen to remain utterly silent on the issue of excess deaths, despite its ardent daily coverage of the Covid death toll.
In regards to vaccine injuries, the BBC took a far more proactive role. The public broadcaster took it upon itself to collaborate with Facebook to take down the online pages of Covid-19 vaccine injury groups, by drawing attention to the fact that these groups used carrot emojis to circumvent Big Tech censors.
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Many viewers of Bridgen’s speech took to social media to draw attention to the fact that the BBC also took it upon itself to plaster the debate with its own captions, in an attempt to contradict what the MP was saying.
One caption read: The NHS says COVID-19 vaccines used in the UK are safe and the best protection from getting seriously ill with the disease.
What is interesting is that Bridgen did not mention vaccines and autism during his debate but this did not stop the BBC from inserting the caption below.
‘NHS guidance states vaccines do not cause autism, there is no evidence of a link between MMR vaccine and autism.’
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It must be noted that the BBC helms the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trusted_News_Initiative
(an alliance of Big Tech and the mainstream media) set up in 2019 to combat ‘anti-vax misinformation’ in real-time. Therefore, its collaboration with Facebook to censor stories on vaccine harms; the lack of any coverage on excess deaths and the more recent captioning of Bridgen’s speech – shows just how effectively it has executed that role.
In Conclusion
Bridgen closed the debate by stating the following:
The experimental covid-19 vaccines are not safe and are not effective. Despite there being only limited interest in the Chamber from colleagues—I am very grateful to those who have attended—we can see from the Public Gallery that there is considerable public interest. I implore all Members of the House, those who are present and those who are not, to support calls for a three-hour debate on this important issue. Mr Deputy Speaker, this might be the first debate on excess deaths in our Parliament—indeed, it might be the first debate on excess deaths in the world—but, very sadly, I promise you it will not be the last.
Republshed from the author’s https://soniaelijah.substack.com/p/piercing-the-veil-of-silence-over
Sonia Elijah has a background in Economics. She’s a former BBC researcher and now works as an investigative journalist.
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Intelligence Failures - Again
Intelligence Failures - Again
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20070/intelligence-failures
,
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In light of the devastating and deadly terrorist attack executed by Hamas against Israel on October 7, many are correctly calling the failure to intercept and prevent the assault an "intelligence failure." Many are especially surprised given the https://nypost.com/2023/10/08/vaunted-israeli-intelligence-agency-blindsided-by-hamas-attack-reports/
, basically legendary, status almost universally accorded Israel's national security apparatus.
This, however, is not the only recent intelligence failure, or failure by political leaders to anticipate emerging threats. According to a https://www.brookings.edu/articles/9-11-and-the-reinvention-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community/
examining the U.S. intelligence failure and reorganization following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against America:
"In the aftermath of 9/11 everyone, from elected officials and national security experts to ordinary citizens had one question: how could this happen to a nation with such an enormous and expensive military and intelligence architecture?"
Despite warnings from the https://www.intelligence.gov/
he briefed behind closed-doors.
These misses once again have citizens asking if our intelligence agencies and political leaders are capable of keeping them safe. The short answer, unfortunately, is no. Terrorists and our enemies only have to be right once, while our intelligence services need to be correct 100% of the time. Just look at Pearl Harbor.
It is not unreasonable to expect that Israeli or US intelligence should have been able to detect the 10/7 attacks on Israel ahead of time, especially so close to the 50th anniversary of the surprise https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/background-and-overview-yom-kippur-war
in 1973. What, then, led to the failure? While Israel will certainly review its intelligence posture to determine its shortcomings, we already know some of the challenges the Intelligence Community faces on the U.S. side.
The Middle East, Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah are all high on the Intelligence Community's radar, given the volatility of the restive region. All the same, Washington's leadership also was not expecting the 10/7 attacks. A little more than a week prior, Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, was https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan/675580/
in the Middle East, allowing the U.S. to focus on other areas regions of the world. The bold conclusion made by Sullivan at the time was that "the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades."
He could not have been more wrong. Boiling just under the surface was a terrorist attack that would result in more than https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestinians
, as well as scores of Israeli and international hostages whom Hamas terrorists forcibly abducted from Israel to Gaza, presumably being held in tunnels.
The failure of the U.S. intelligence community has three components:
It has become politically charged and lost focus on its mission protecting Americans, instead engaging in partisan politics.
It continues to focus on technological intelligence collection rather than the difficult and risky world of human intelligence collection.
It continues to suffer from a lack of creativity in anticipating and understanding the new threats being developed by our enemies.
There is little doubt that the Intelligence Community has become seriously politicized. In 2016-2017, its leaders and the FBI undermined the incoming President Donald Trump by raising the specter of Russian influence over Trump. The https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/15/politics/john-durham-report-fbi-trump-released/index.html
would go on to shadow and undermine Trump's entire time in office.
When Hunter Biden's now infamous laptop was revealed, it was the FBI and former Intelligence Community leaders who actively tried to https://judiciary.house.gov/media/in-the-news/biden-campaign-blinken-orchestrated-intel-letter-discredit-hunter-biden-laptop
and pass it off as a Russian disinformation campaign.
The Intelligence Community also shifted some of its focus from international threats to domestic threats -- often https://nypost.com/2023/02/16/traditional-catholics-outraged-at-being-targeted-by-the-fbi/
flooding onto the United States through the southern border, in addition to at least 1.5 million known "gotaways" and an unknown number of unknown "gotaways."
We have also witnessed information that was accurate but which the https://www.thefire.org/news/yes-you-should-be-worried-about-fbis-relationship-twitter
to suppress, and even outright fabrications about what they claimed was disinformation, such as the Russia hoax or the authenticity of Hunter Biden's laptop; that Catholics who attend mass in Latin are "extremists," and that parents questioning what their children learn in public schools are "domestic terrorists." What really happened on January 6, 2021 is still unknown.
.
Unfortunately, this political corruption shows no signs of abating, with the entire deep state apparently still determined to turn the Constitution on its head to "get Trump," and with former officials such as Michael Hayden, who was head of the National Security Agency and the CIA, suggesting that Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville should be https://nypost.com/2023/10/10/ex-cia-chief-accused-of-calling-for-sen-tommy-tubervilles-assassination/
.
A second major shortcoming, that was identified after 9/11 was, as mentioned, a U.S. over-reliance on the technological collection of information, such as satellites, cyber, and wiretapping. The Intelligence Community knew how to do these things and knew how to do them well. It was difficult and sophisticated work but carried far fewer risks than human espionage or developing spy networks.
While the intelligence may have been there, our ability to fully understand it, and our analyses, missed having insights into the humans, and their way of thinking, who were behind those "zeros and ones."
Hamas may have exploited the reliance Western security services have on technological collection. We already know that Osama bin Laden refused to use electronic communications and relied on human couriers to convey messages. It is not unreasonable to expect that Israeli or US intelligence should have been able to detect the 10/7 attacks on Israel ahead of time The after-action intelligence review to determine how Hamas hid its operation will undoubtedly look into this, but it appears that electronic communication on the plot was limited and coded, with the few people actually knowing the full details kept to a handful to further limit communications.
Just as the U.S. Intelligence Community did not imagine terrorists hijacking airplanes to use as missiles, it is likely the Israelis never contemplated Hamas pulling off a multipronged attack by sea, land, and air -- including the use of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rHqTnzKDdE
. But that is exactly what they did. They used low-tech bulldozers and explosives to breach Israel's border fence and then drive through the openings with trucks, motorcycles, and other equipment loaded with terrorists and weapons. Hamas fired thousands of rockets, in barrages of hundreds at a time, to overwhelm Israel's highly touted Iron Dome counter-rocket system and, having learned lessons about the effective use of drones from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, used drone-dropped munitions to take out guard towers and surveillance cameras.
While many of these tactics are not new -- Hamas had fired tens of thousands of missiles into Israel before, attacked civilians and soldiers on the streets, and crossed the border in multiple ways -- the novelty of this approach was to do all of these things at once and on a massive scale.
The biggest U.S. intelligence failure of all so far, unfortunately, has been strenuously pretending not to know that https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-its-obvious-iran-approved-hamas-attack-khamenei-nuclear-deal-f394c477
are the kingpins behind the current attacks by Hamas on Israel. If Iran, Qatar and Turkey are to be discouraged from continuing their malign actions destabilizing the region, the price they pay needs to be steep. Hamas. Iran, Qatar and Turkey must not be let off the hook. In addition, the US must move its military assets from Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar to the United Arab Emirates as soon as it can.
The Qataris, instead of being grateful that a state-of-the-art airbase is on its soil protecting it, instead might think that they are doing the US a favor letting the airbase be there.
To go just after Hamas is like targeting crime syndicate, but ignoring Al Capone. Hamas needs to be dealt with first – along with the realization that any humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza supplies Hamas, not the people for whom it was well-meaningly intended. As the journalist Caroline Glick https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20068/biden-turns-against-israel
, the trucks are not inspected. They might be bringing in food and water – or weapons. Sadly, even if the contents are food and water, Hamas keeps them, then sparingly doles them out to whomever they want.
Moving forward, we once again need to examine https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/israels-9-11-how-hamas-terrorist-attacks-will-change-the-middle-east/
across the West. Perhaps Congress or a special commission can be established to identify the exact strengths and weaknesses of our intelligence community. It will have the old rallying cry of "never again," just as after Pearl Harbor, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, 9/11, and now the attacks of 10/7. The Intelligence Community needs to keep its eye on actual foreign threats, develop and use all forms of intelligence collection to build a robust intelligence capability, respect the ability and creativity of our adversaries, and to discard the biased and flawed analytical tradecraft standards that have led us to where we are today. Unless these changes take place, we will remain vulnerable, uncertain of our safety and security, and stuck with the knowledge the world is a much more dangerous place than we had thought.
Peter Hoekstra is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute. He was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He also served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the Second District of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 10/21/2023 - 22:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/intelligence-failures-again
Escobar: The Geopolitics Of Al-Aqsa Flood
Escobar: The Geopolitics Of Al-Aqsa Flood
https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-geopolitics-of-al-aqsa-flood
Global focus just shifted from Ukraine to Palestine. This new arena of confrontation will ignite further competition between the Atlanticist and Eurasian blocs. These fights are increasingly zero-sum ones; as in Ukraine, only one pole can emerge strengthened and victorious.
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Hamas’ Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was meticulously planned. The launch date was conditioned by two triggering factors.
First was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flaunting his 'New Middle East' map at the UN General Assembly in September, in which he completely erased Palestine and made a mockery of every single UN resolution on the subject.
Second are the serial provocations at the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, including the straw that broke the camel’s back: two days before Al-Aqsa Flood, on 5 October, at least 800 Israeli settlers launched an assault around the mosque, beating pilgrims, destroying Palestinian shops, all under the observation of Israeli security forces.
Everyone with a functioning brain knows Al-Aqsa is a definitive red line, not just for Palestinians, but for the entire Arab and Muslim worlds.
It gets worse. The Israelis have now invoked the rhetoric of a “Pearl Harbor.” This is as threatening as it gets. The original Pearl Harbor was the American excuse to enter a world war and nuke Japan, and this “Pearl Harbor” may be Tel Aviv’s justification to launch a Gaza genocide.
Sections of the west applauding the upcoming ethnic cleansing – including Zionists posing as “analysts” saying out loud that the “population transfers” that began in 1948 “must be completed” – believe that with massive weaponry and massive media coverage, they can turn things around in short shrift, annihilate the Palestinian resistance, and leave Hamas allies like Hezbollah and Iran weakened.
Their Ukraine Project has sputtered, leaving not just egg on powerful faces, but entire European economies in ruin.
Yet as one door closes, another one opens: Jump from ally Ukraine to ally Israel, and hone your sights on adversary Iran instead of adversary Russia.
There are other good reasons to go all guns blazing.
A peaceful West Asia means Syria reconstruction – in which China is now officially involved; active redevelopment for Iraq and Lebanon; Iran and Saudi Arabia as part of BRICS 11; the Russia-China strategic partnership fully respected and interacting with all regional players, including key US allies in the Persian Gulf.
Incompetence. Willful strategy. Or both.
That brings us to the cost of launching this new “war on terror.” The propaganda is in full swing. For Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Hamas is ISIS. For Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, Hamas is Russia. Over one October weekend, the war in Ukraine was completely forgotten by western mainstream media. Brandenburg Gate, the Eiffel tower, the Brazilian Senate are all Israeli now.
Egyptian intel claims it warned Tel Aviv about an imminent attack from Hamas. The Israelis chose to ignore it, as they did the https://new.thecradle.co/articles/the-war-has-started
they observed in the weeks prior, smug in their superior knowledge that Palestinians would never have the audacity to launch a liberation operation.
Whatever happens next, Al-Aqsa Flood has already, irretrievably, shattered the hefty pop mythology around the invincibility of Tsahal, Mossad, Shin Bet, Merkava tank, Iron Dome, and the Israel Defense Forces.
Even as it ditched electronic communications, Hamas profited from the glaring collapse of Israel’s multi-billion-dollar electronic systems monitoring the most surveilled border on the planet.
Cheap Palestinian drones hit multiple sensor towers, facilitated the advance of a paragliding infantry, and cleared the way for T-shirted, AK-47-wielding assault teams to inflict breaks in the wall and cross a border that even stray cats dared not.
Israel, inevitably, turned to battering the Gaza Strip, an encircled cage of 365 square kilometers packed with 2.3 million people. The indiscriminate bombing of refugee camps, schools, civilian apartment blocks, mosques, and slums has begun. Palestinians have no navy, no air force, no artillery units, no armored fighting vehicles, and no professional army. They have little to no high-tech surveillance access, while Israel can call up NATO data if they want it.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant proclaimed “a complete siege on the Gaza Strip. There will be no electricity, no food, no fuel, everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we will act accordingly.”
The Israelis can merrily engage in collective punishment because, with three guaranteed UNSC vetoes in their back pocket, they know they can get away with it.
It doesn’t matter that Haaretz, Israel’s most respected newspaper, straight out concedes that “actually the Israeli government is solely responsible for what happened (Al-Aqsa Flood) for denying the rights of Palestinians.”
The Israelis are nothing if not consistent. Back in 2007, then-Israeli Defense Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/1711341232448815466
“Israel would be happy if Hamas took over Gaza because IDF could then deal with Gaza as a hostile state.”
Ukraine funnels weapons to Palestinians
Only one year ago, the sweaty sweatshirt comedian in Kiev was talking about turning Ukraine into a “big Israel,” and was duly applauded by a bunch of Atlantic Council bots.
Well, it turned out quite differently. As an old-school Deep State source just informed me:
“Ukraine-earmarked weapons are ending up in the hands of the Palestinians. The question is which country is paying for it. Iran just made a deal with the US for six billion dollars and it is unlikely Iran would jeopardize that. I have a source who gave me the name of the country but I cannot reveal it. The fact is that Ukrainian weapons are going to the Gaza Strip and they are being paid for but not by Iran."
After its stunning raid last weekend, a savvy Hamas has already secured more negotiating leverage than Palestinians have wielded in decades. Significantly, while peace talks are supported by China, Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt - Tel Aviv refuses. Netanyahu is obsessed with razing Gaza to the ground, but if that happens, a wider regional war is nearly inevitable.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah – a staunch Resistance Axis ally of the Palestinian resistance - would rather not be dragged into a war that can be devastating on its side of the border, but that could change if Israel perpetrates a de facto Gaza genocide.
Hezbollah holds at least 100,000 ballistic missiles and rockets, from Katyusha (range: 40 km) to Fajr-5 (75 km), Khaibar-1 (100 km), Zelzal 2 (210 km), Fateh-110 (300 km), and Scud B-C (500 km). Tel Aviv knows what that means, and shudders at the frequent warnings by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that its next war with Israel will be conducted inside that country.
Which brings us to Iran.
Geopolitical plausible deniability
The key immediate consequence of Al-Aqsa Flood is that the Washington neocon wet dream of “normalization” between Israel and the Arab world https://new.thecradle.co/articles/no-country-wants-normalization-with-a-weak-israel
if this turns into a Long War.
Large swathes of the Arab world in fact are already normalizing their ties with Tehran – and not only inside the newly expanded BRICS 11.
In the drive towards a multipolar world, represented by BRICS 11, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), among other groundbreaking Eurasian and Global South institutions, there’s simply no place for an ethnocentric Apartheid state fond of collective punishment.
Just this year, Israel found itself disinvited from the African Union summit. An Israeli delegation showed up anyway, and was unceremoniously ejected from the big hall, a visual that went viral. At the UN plenary sessions last month, a lone Israeli diplomat sought to disrupt Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s speech. No western ally stood by his side, and he too, was ejected from the premises.
As Chinese President Xi Jinping diplomatically put it in December 2022, Beijing “firmly supports the establishment of an independent state of Palestine that enjoys full sovereignty based on 1967 borders and with East Jerusalem as its capital. China supports Palestine in becoming a full member of the United Nations.”
Tehran’s strategy is way more ambitious – offering strategic advice to West Asian resistance movements from the Levant to the Persian Gulf: Hezbollah, Ansarallah, Hashd al-Shaabi, Kataib Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and countless others. It’s as if they are all part of a new Grand Chessboard de facto supervised by Grandmaster Iran.
The pieces in the chessboard were carefully positioned by none other than the late Quds Force Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Qassem Soleimani, a once-in-a-lifetime military genius. He was instrumental in creating the foundations for the cumulative successes of Iranian allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestine, as well as creating the conditions for a complex operation such as Al-Aqsa Flood.
Elsewhere in the region, the Atlanticist drive of opening strategic corridors across the Five Seas - the Caspian, the Black Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean - is floundering badly.
Russia and Iran are already smashing US designs in the Caspian – via the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – and the Black Sea, which is on the way to becoming a Russian lake. Tehran is paying very close attention to Moscow’s strategy in Ukraine, even as it refines its own strategy on how to debilitate the Hegemon without direct involvement: call it geopolitical plausible deniability.
Bye bye EU-Israel-Saudi-India corridor
The Russia-China-Iran alliance has been demonized as the new “axis of evil” by western neocons. That infantile rage betrays cosmic impotence. These are Real Sovereigns that can’t be messed with, and if they are, the price to pay is unthinkable.
A key example: if Iran under attack by a US-Israeli axis decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy crisis would skyrocket, and the collapse of the western economy under the weight of quadrillions of derivatives would be inevitable.
What this means, in the immediate future, is that he American Dream of interfering across the Five Seas does not even qualify as a mirage. Al-Aqsa Flood has also just buried the recently-announced and much-ballyhooed EU-Israel-Saudi Arabia-India transportation corridor.
China is keenly aware of all this incandescence taking place only a week before its 3rd Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. At stake are the BRI connectivity corridors that matter – across the Heartland, across Russia, plus the Maritime Silk Road and the Arctic Silk Road.
Then there’s the INSTC linking Russia, Iran and India – and by ancillary extension, the Gulf monarchies.
The geopolitical repercussions of Al-Aqsa Flood will speed up Russia, China and Iran’s interconnected geoeconomic and logistical connections, bypassing the Hegemon and its Empire of Bases. Increased trade and non-stop cargo movement are all about (good) business. On equal terms, with mutual respect - not exactly the War Party’s scenario for a destabilized West Asia.
Oh, the things that a slow-moving paragliding infantry overflying a wall can accelerate.
* * *
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle or ZeroHedge.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 10/14/2023 - 23:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-geopolitics-al-aqsa-flood