"American Dream Is Unstoppable" - Watch Live: President Trump Delivers His First Address To Congress In 5 Years
"American Dream Is Unstoppable" - Watch Live: President Trump Delivers His First Address To Congress In 5 Years
Watch live here (due to start at 2100ET):
Trump will take a victory lap for slashing border crossings, per released excerpts:
“Since taking office, my administration has launched the most sweeping border and immigration crackdown in American history — and we quickly achieved the lowest numbers of illegal border crossers EVER recorded. The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new LEGISLATION to secure the border — but it turned out that all we really needed was a new PRESIDENT.”
Trump reiterates his plan for widespread tariffs, according to excerpts released by the White House.
“Whatever they tariff us, we tariff them. Whatever they tax us, we tax them. If they do non-monetary tariffs to keep us out of their market, then we do non-monetary barriers to keep them out of our market,” Trump will say. “We will take in trillions of dollars and create jobs like we have never seen before.”
Trump plans to give a shout-out to a long-delayed liquefied natural gas export project in Alaska, per excerpts of his speech sent by the White House.
My administration is also working on a gigantic natural gas pipeline in Alaska, among the largest in the world, where Japan, South Korea, and other nations want to be our partner—with trillions of dollars being spent by them. It will truly be spectacular.
On Ukraine, Trump will say he is “working tirelessly” to end the war, per released excerpts:
I am also working tirelessly to end the savage conflict in Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians and Russians have been needlessly killed or wounded in this horrific and brutal conflict, with no end in sight. The United States has sent hundreds of billions of dollars to support Ukraine’s defense. Meanwhile, Europe has sadly spent more money buying Russian Oil and Gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine – by far! And Biden has authorized more money in this fight than Europe has spent.
Trump plans to say that later this week, he will take action to “dramatically expand production of critical minerals and rare Earths in the US” as part of his response to improving the economy, and he’ll blame Joe Biden.
“Among my very highest priorities is to rescue our economy and get dramatic and immediate relief to working families,” Trump plans to say, according to excerpts.
“As you know, we inherited, from the last administration, an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare. Their policies drove up energy prices, pushed up the cost of groceries, and drove the necessities of life out of reach for millions of Americans. We suffered the worst inflation in 48 years, but perhaps even in the history of our country. As President, I am fighting every day to reverse this damage and make America affordable again.”
* * *
When President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, he is expected to outline his policy agenda with a focus on three pressing challenges: the war in Ukraine, tariffs, and a potential government shutdown.
This will be Trump’s first address to Congress since his 2020 State of the Union address, less than two months before the pandemic upended his first administration’s priorities. Trump’s talk will mark the only time a president has given a post-inaugural address to Congress after a five-year gap.
“Tomorrow will be big,” Trump https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114098542644386176
on his Truth Social platform March 3.
“I will tell it like it is!”
The 47th president’s address will begin at 9 p.m. EST.
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, the circumstances are vastly different from when he last spoke to Congress, when he was facing impeachment proceedings. During his 2020 State of the Union address, then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) sat behind the president and ripped her copy of his remarks in half in a dramatic scene at the conclusion.
After Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress in the 2024 election, the party now holds a federal government trifecta. House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) will be seated next to Vice President JD Vance behind Trump, with the tone now markedly in favor of the president’s agenda.
Security has been ramped up ahead of Trump’s speech. Capitol police https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/joint-session-congress-road-closures#:~:text=To%20ensure%20everyone's%20safety%2C%20the,NW%2C%20and%20Independence%20Avenue%2C%20SW
about two dozen road closures in effect in the area around the Capitol, and tour buses will be redirected away from the complex.
A temporary, 7-foot steel security fence–which is theoretically non-scalable– completely surrounding the grounds was installed in the days before the talk to counter protesters potentially intent on disrupting the proceedings.
The theme of the address will be “Renewal of the American Dream,” according to a White House official.
The speech will consist of four main sections, the official told The Epoch Times: his achievements since taking office, his actions to reduce inflation, the need for additional border security funding, and his plans for global peace.
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President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Vice President Mike Pence look on in the chamber of the House of Representatives on Feb. 4, 2020. Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Ukraine War, Funding Crisis, and New Tariffs
Trump is facing a trio of challenges.
His address to the joint session of Congress follows a tense meeting at the White House on Feb. 28 between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which led to the collapse of a minerals deal between the United States and Ukraine. During his speech, Trump is expected to share his plans to end the war in Ukraine.
“I think it takes two to tango, and you’re going to have to make a deal with Russia, and you’re going to have to make a deal with Ukraine,” Trump said at the White House on March 3. “I think everybody has to get into a room, so to speak, and we have to make a deal, and the deal can be made very fast.”
* * *
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After his comments, the Trump administration announced that it would pause aid to Ukraine.
“The president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well,” a White House official said in a statement. “We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution.”
Trump also faces a domestic crisis as government funding is set to expire in 10 days unless a budget agreement is reached.
Since December 2024, the government has been operating under a continuing resolution (CR), and Trump recently urged Congress to pass a temporary funding bill to cover the rest of the 2025 fiscal year.
“We are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding bill (CR) to the end of September. Let’s get it done!” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Feb. 27.
Yet Democratic votes will be necessary to pass any funding bill to avert a government shutdown on March 14. Republicans, who have 53 members in the Senate, will need the support of at least seven Democratic senators to pass the funding, which could prove challenging.
Democrats want to insert language in the funding bill to ensure that the money will be spent and not withheld, a reaction to Elon Musk’s effort to shrink the government.
Trump’s speech will also occur against the backdrop of ongoing https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-to-impose-tariffs-on-mexico-canada-china-over-fentanyl-on-tuesday-5818864)
, as the president is set to announce tariffs on Mexico and Canada the same day.
The president already doubled the additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports on March 3.
Trump revealed his plans last week, stating that fentanyl, supplied by China, continues to be smuggled into the United States through the northern and southern borders at “unacceptable levels.”
During his speech, Trump is expected to make the case for high tariffs, referring to them as “the most beautiful word,” a phrase he has been using frequently in recent speeches.
He is also expected to talk about his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all nations on April 2.
Many Democrats have argued that the proposed tariffs will drive up inflation, putting additional strain on household budgets.
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President Donald Trump and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Oval Office on Feb. 28, 2025. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
Trump to Tout Accomplishments
The president is also expected to tout his achievements after a whirlwind first six weeks of his second term, which included 75 executive orders signed as of March 3.
After prioritizing border security during his campaign, Trump signed 10 orders clamping down on illegal immigration and instructing federal law enforcement agencies to immediately begin rounding up and deporting criminal illegal aliens, first focusing on those with violent backgrounds.
Since initiating the change, illegal border crossings have plummeted 94 percent, according to Border Patrol Chief Mike Banks.
In his address, the president will urge Congress to approve additional funding for border security, including funds for deportations and the ongoing construction of the wall along the southern border, according to the White House.
Much fanfare has been made about Trump’s establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), overseen by special government employee Elon Musk, tasked with cutting what the president has repeatedly described as illegitimate expenditures.
As part of a process to streamline government, DOGE has eliminated contracts and leases worth about https://www.doge.gov/savings
so far, with a stated goal of cutting $2 trillion worth of federal spending.
While some critics are decrying Musk as an “unelected bureaucrat” and questioning his role, the president has persistently defended the tech leader. During his speech, Trump is expected to continue defending DOGE’s efforts and Musk’s leadership.
Trump is focused on taming inflation and bringing down prices to alleviate financial burdens on millions of Americans after four years of rapidly increasing consumer goods costs. In his address, he is expected to outline his plans to reduce inflation, revitalize U.S. manufacturing, and boost economic growth.
Another priority for the president is to extend and perhaps expand the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which became law during his first term and is set to expire at the end of this year. He has also proposed eliminating taxes on tips and Social Security benefits.
The president is looking to secure passage of bills advancing his agenda, but Republicans hold only a slim three-seat majority in the House and Democrats have been staunch opponents.
Across the nation, Democratic attorneys general are challenging Trump’s executive orders, with at least 80 lawsuits already filed targeting the president’s move to end birthright citizenship, among other things.
Dems Plot Disruptions
Meanwhile, https://www.axios.com/2025/03/04/trump-congress-address-democrats-disrupt-plan
reports that Democratic lawmakers are planning to protest during Trump's speech - "including through outright disruption" (because they've obviously accepted the results of the election?).
"The part that we all agree on is that this is not business as usual and we would like to find a way — productively — to express our outrage," one House Democrat told the outlet.
More via Axios:
What we're hearing: Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios.
Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.
A wide array of props — including noisemakers — has also been floated:
Signs with anti-Trump or anti-DOGE messages — just as Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a sign during Israeli Prime Minister https://www.axios.com/2024/07/24/half-house-senate-democrats-boycott-netanyahu
last year that said "war criminal."
Eggs or empty egg cartons to highlight how inflation is https://www.axios.com/2025/02/26/bird-flu-egg-prices-growing-shortages-eggs
.
Pocket constitutions to make the case that https://www.axios.com/2025/02/18/democrats-trump-judges-constitution-doge
by shutting down congressionally authorized agencies.
Hand clappers, red cards and various other props have also been discussed, multiple sources said.
The intrigue: In closed-door meetings and on the House floor Monday night, lawmakers were specifically discouraged from using props, two House Democrats told Axios.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/04/2025 - 20:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-address-congress-first-time-five-years-heres-what-expect
HUD Terminates Obama-Era Housing Rule
HUD Terminates Obama-Era Housing Rule
(emphasis ours),
An Obama-era housing rule that was terminated by the first Trump administration and revived by the Biden administration has again been canceled. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said the regulation has led to excessive bureaucracy and created affordability challenges.
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The agency said it will terminate the Biden-era 2021 Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule, “cutting costly red tape imposed on localities and returning decision-making power to local and state governments,” in a Feb. 26 https://www.hud.gov/press/press_releases_media_advisories/hud_no_25_034
.
“The Biden-era AFFH rule was, in effect, a ‘zoning tax,’ which fueled an increase in the cost and a decrease in the supply of affordable housing due to restrictions on local land,” the HUD stated.
The AFFH rule, introduced by the Obama administration in 2015, implemented reporting requirements for local and state governments as well as public housing agencies that received federal funds from the HUD.
For instance, it required local officials to provide answers to 92 questions on topics such as disparities in housing opportunities, according to a https://www.heritage.org/housing/commentary/poison-policy-unfair-housing-regulation-leftover-the-obama-era-creates
by The Heritage Foundation. Local officials had to report data on issues such as environmental health hazards, which had little to do with affordable housing. Besides that, HUD fund recipients had to ensure that their policies and practices did not promote racial segregation.
“[The AFFH rule was] designed to give unelected, anonymous bureaucrats in Washington the power to pick and choose who your new next-door neighbor will be,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) wrote in a 2016 https://www.lee.senate.gov/2016/5/we-don-t-need-a-national-zoning-board
.
“If they don’t believe your neighborhood is ‘diverse’ enough, they will seize control of local zoning decisions—choosing what should be built, where, and who should pay for it—in order to make your neighborhood look more like they want it to.”
In 2020, the Trump administration abolished the AFFH rule, and then-HUD Secretary Ben Carson called the requirements “excessive federal overreach.” The rule proved to be “complicated, costly, and ineffective,” the HUD https://archives.hud.gov/news/2020/pr20-109.cfm
at the time.
In 2021, the Biden administration restored the main provisions of the AFFH rule.
With the AFFH rule terminated again, localities will “no longer be required to complete onerous paperwork and drain their budgets to comply with the extreme and restrictive demands made up by the federal government,” HUD Secretary Scott Turner said.
“This action also returns decisions on zoning, home building, transportation, and more to local leaders,” he said.
A locality only has to certify that it has “affirmatively furthered fair housing” in accordance with the Fair Housing Act (FHA), the agency said. The FHA prohibits discrimination in housing on the basis of race, color, sex, religion, national origin, familial status, or disability.
“Local and state governments understand the needs of their communities much better than bureaucrats in Washington, D.C. Terminating this rule restores trust in local communities and property owners, while protecting America’s suburbs and neighborhood integrity,” Turner said.
Housing Crisis
Following the HUD announcement, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) issued a https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=413007
condemning the decision.
They accused Turner of abandoning the HUD’s “legal obligation to eliminate housing discrimination in the United States.”
“At a time when America is experiencing a full-blown housing crisis and record levels of housing discrimination complaints, this outright assault on civil rights takes us back to the days when the federal government rubber stamped segregation and discrimination,” they alleged.
“He is eliminating a key tool that makes housing more affordable and accessible to everyday people, including people of color, older Americans, veterans, people with disabilities, families with children, and so many others.”
Turner was https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/senate-confirms-scott-turner-for-hud-secretary-5799987
to the HUD post by the Senate on Feb. 5 by a vote of 55–44.
During his confirmation hearing in January, Turner https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/easing-regulatory-burden-in-housing-market-a-top-priority-for-hud-turner-says-5793497
his commitment to reduce housing development costs, saying that homelessness in the United States reached an all-time high last year.
“That’s a national embarrassment and something that cannot continue,” Turner said. “We have a housing crisis in our country, where American people and families are struggling every day.”
The recent decision comes after President Donald Trump https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/trump-orders-emergency-price-relief-for-the-us-housing-market-5796945
a memorandum on his first day in office about the cost-of-living crisis facing Americans, in which he highlighted the ongoing housing challenge.
Many Americans are unable to buy homes because of high prices, “in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home,” the memorandum states while calling on agencies to take appropriate action to lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/04/2025 - 13:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/hud-terminates-obama-era-housing-rule
Tariffs & Consumer Uncertainty Plague Target's Full-Year Outlook
Tariffs & Consumer Uncertainty Plague Target's Full-Year Outlook
Target warned of "meaningful" profit pressures this quarter and forecasted flat sales for the year, citing mounting consumer uncertainty and escalating trade tensions as President Trump https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-canada-retaliate-against-trumps-tariff-war-global-stocks-slide
. The retailer's cautious outlook underscores the big-box chain's challenges in a turbulent economic environment. Given these uncertainties, executives at the retailer may tread more carefully when pushing LGBTQ-related merchandise for children.
Target Finance Chief Jim Lee wrote in a https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2025/03/target-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-earnings
that the retailer's February sales showed a "small decline" due to "declining consumer confidence."
"Looking ahead, we expect to see a moderation in this trend as apparel sales respond to warmer weather around the country, and consumers turn to Target for upcoming seasonal moments such as the Easter holiday. We will continue to monitor these trends and will remain appropriately cautious with our expectations for the year ahead," Lee said.
Target warned: "In light of ongoing consumer uncertainty and a small decline in February Net Sales, combined with tariff uncertainty and the expected timing of certain costs within the fiscal year, the Company expects to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter relative to the remainder of the year."
Target's full-year outlook fell short of the average analyst estimate.
Goldman analysts Kate McShane, Emily Ghosh, and others summarized the bleak full-year forecast:
TGT introduced FY25 guidance with net sales growth of +1%, reflecting flat SSS (vs. GS/consensus of +2.8%/+1.9%), a modest increase in operating margin rate, and EPS of $8.80-9.80 (vs. GS/consensus at $9.80/$9.31). TGT expects to see meaningful y/y profit pressure in 1Q25 relative to the remainder of the year, citing ongoing consumer uncertainty and a small decline in February net sales, alongside tariff uncertainty and the expected timing of certain costs in FY25.
The bleak outlook was accompanied by better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter (courtesy of GS analysts):
TGT reported 4Q24 EPS of $2.41, above GS/consensus (Refinitiv) of $2.30/$2.26. SSS came in at +1.5%, vs. consensus of +1.3%, with an increase in traffic (+2.1%) and a decline in ticket (-0.6%). By channel, the store comp decreased -0.5% while the e-commerce comp increased +8.7% (over 25% growth in same-day delivery through Target Circle 360 y/y). Of note, comp trends in apparel and hardlines accelerated by almost 4 ppts from 3Q.
The analysts noted:
We are Buy rated on TGT with a 12-month price target of $166, based on our risk-reward framework with downside/base/upside relative P/E multiples of 65%/75%/80%.
Downside risks: 1) traffic and sales trends decelerate due to weakness in consumer spending; 2) inflationary pressures related to product costs, freight/transportation, and/or wages; 3) the competitive environment forces TGT to compete more aggressively on price; 4) margins come under pressure from omni-channel, supply chain investments, and mix shift
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Target shares are in correction territory year-to-date, falling nearly 50% from their peak of around $266 in November 2021. In premarket trading, shares are down 3%.
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Zhihan Ma, a retail analyst at Bernstein, told clients, "We believe that Target needs to invest more in pricing and promotions to drive the top-line growth." Target noted that it had slashed prices of 10,000 items last year.
Competitor Walmart has been the clear winner of the value wars between the retailers. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/walmart-remains-discount-juggernaut-price-war-among-supermarkets?ref=redicate.com
Target's profit woes and tariff concerns only suggest that executives will back down from angering half their customer base with woke merchandise or risk those folks shifting to Walmart's low prices.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/04/2025 - 13:05
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariffs-consumer-uncertainty-plague-targets-full-year-outlook
China & Canada Retaliate Against Trump's Tariff War As Global Stocks Slide
China & Canada Retaliate Against Trump's Tariff War As Global Stocks Slide
Asian markets closed lower, European stocks are in the red, and US equity futures are trending lower this morning as worsening global trade war concerns weigh on risk sentiment.
On Monday, President Trump reiterated that he would impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, stating that there was "no room left" for negotiation. He also noted that an additional 10% levy would be applied to imports from China.
Fast-forward to Tuesday morning. Trump's 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada took effect, prompting Canada to retaliate with 25% tariffs on $100 billion worth of US imports. Mexico is expected to respond later.
Trump also introduced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports early Tuesday, bringing the total tax to 20% following a similar increase last month. China swiftly retaliated with tariffs on US food and agricultural products and an export ban on some defense firms.
According to an announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Finance, Beijing imposed new duties of 10% to 15% on US food and agricultural products.
Here's an excerpt from the announcement:
15% tariff will be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton.
10% tariff will be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products
For the imported goods listed in the appendix originating from the United States, corresponding tariffs will be levied on the basis of the current applicable tariff rates. The current bonded and tax reduction and exemption policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be reduced or exempted
Goods that have been shipped from the place of departure prior to March 10, 2025, and imported from March 10, 2025 to April 12, 2025, shall not be subject to the additional tariffs prescribed in this announcement
Commenting on China's retaliatory tariffs, Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, told clients: "The measures are still relatively measured for now. I think this retaliation shows China remains patient and has refrained from 'flipping the table' so to speak despite the recent escalation."
"China's hit-back isn't exactly aggressive — a 15% tariff on US agricultural goods, but nothing broad-based on tech or autos, suggests to me they're leaving room for negotiation," said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETF, adding, "That's probably why Chinese stocks are rebounding instead of selling off harder."
Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., said, "The immediate impact of these new tariffs on China remains manageable — the measures are currently concentrated in specific areas."
"Should Beijing roll out additional pro-growth measures — such as large-scale fiscal stimulus or targeted support for high-tech industries and domestic consumption — it could further bolster market confidence," Wu said.
Sea of red for global equity futures across most regions.
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China's Ministry of Finance warned: "The US's unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US."
Should Trump respond with retaliatory tariffs, the risk of sentiment continuation could continue. In the US, the growth outlook has dimmed as the troubling narrative of "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-tariffs-troubling-narrative-continues-brewing
" takes center stage.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/04/2025 - 07:20
Consumer Health "Remains Cautious" As Bidenomics Hangover Begins
Consumer Health "Remains Cautious" As Bidenomics Hangover Begins
Walmart, America's largest retailer, spooked investors late last month with a https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/walmart-plunges-most-year-dismal-earnings-forecast
, falling short of Wall Street analysts' expectations. The outlook underscores mounting consumer headwinds for cash-strapped households. Beyond Walmart, Goldman's latest consumer health commentary from corporate America shows a cautious outlook.
Let's begin with consumer health commentary from top retailers, including Advance Auto Parts, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Walmart, among others, with many management teams warning about mounting macroeconomic headwinds and volatility through this year.
Goldman's Kate McShane, Mark Jordan, and others summarized the consumer health commentary of major retailers in a note to clients on Monday.
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Given the ongoing consumer gloom, the latest https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/atlanta-fed-slashes-gdp-forecast-again-after-small-dip-ism-manufacturing-survey
forecast for Q1 2025 collapsed on Monday from +2.33% to -2.825% - a stunning 510bps plunge in growth expectations.
Today's drop to a 2.825% contraction is the worst forecast for GDP since the COVID lockdowns in 2020...
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Last week, we cited numerous notes from leading institutional desks highlighting the emergence of growth scare and tariffs weighed on outlooks:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-tariffs-troubling-narrative-continues-brewing
For more color about the broader economic cycle, US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bessent-shocked-scale-fraud-already-uncovered-doge-mocks-msms-biden-vibecession-narrative
]. In 6 to 12 months, it becomes Trump's economy."
Last July, we provided color on Biden's $https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/here-1-trillion-stealth-stimulus-behind-bidenomics
"stealth stimulus" ...
From July 2023: Here Is The $1 Trillion "Stealth Stimulus" Behind Bidenomicshttps://t.co/OqgQIgNECp
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1895931575734583537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The hangover from 'Bidenomics' appears to be creating headwinds for the US economy while potentially helping to tame Biden's inflation storm.
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If that's the case, it may suggest that borrowing costs could decline as growth scare narratives gain traction. Then again, a worsening tariff war may only keep rates elevated...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/04/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-health-remains-cautious-bidenomics-hangover-begins
"Everything Is Going To Come Out": AG Pam Bondi Says She Received "Truckload" Of Hidden Epstein Documents From SDNY
"Everything Is Going To Come Out": AG Pam Bondi Says She Received "Truckload" Of Hidden Epstein Documents From SDNY
After last week's botched Epstein files release, many are calling for Attorney General Pam Bondi to be fired over the lame binders given to right-wing influencers and journalists that contained old information.
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On Monday, Bondi appeared on Fox News, where she told host Sean Hannity that she received a truckload of files on Friday morning containing additional Epstein files which were hidden away in the Southern District of New York.
"FBI handed over a couple hundred pages of documents, but you know Sean, I gave them a deadline of Friday at 8am to get us everything, and a source had told me where the documents were being kept - southern district of new york (shock), so we got - hopefully all of them, Friday at 8am. Thousands of documents," said Bondi.
"I have the FBI going through them ... Now that we have Kash here it's a game changer of course, and Director Patel is going to get us a detailed report as to why the FBI withheld all of those documents."
Sean Hannity: "I want to be clear, because I think people are frustrated. You were expecting more, and you didn't find out - less than 24 hours before the release, you got a whistleblower that confirmed that there were way more documents that they were supposed to turn over, and then you found out just before that."
Pam Bondi: "Well sure, you're looking at these documents going 'these aren't all the Epstein files!' - and we're going 'where's the rest of the stuff?' and that's what the FBI had turned over to us. And so a source said, whoa - all this evidence is sitting in the Southern District of New York. So based on that I gave them the deadline - Friday at 8. A truckload of evidence arrived. It's now in the possession of the FBI. Kash is going to get me - and himself a detailed report as to why all these documents and evidence had been withheld. And, you know, we're going to go through it - go through it as fast as we can, but go through it very cautiously to protect all the victims of Epstein, because there are a lot of victims."
"Now, is that the only thing that would be redacted," Hannity replied, referring to the names of the victims.
Pam Bondi: "Yeah, the FBI hasn't had, obviously, they haven't looked at the thousands of pages of documents that they just received Friday. Kash has a team going through them - and it's always about protecting the victim ... We believe in transparency, and America has the right to know."
The Biden administration sat on these documents. No one did anything with them, and why are they sitting in the Southern District of New York? I want a full report on that. Sadly these people don't believe in transparency, but I think more than that - I think they don't believe in honesty," she continued.
"Everything is going to come out to the public."
Watch (https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1896754684708188658
):
BREAKING: Attorney General Pam Bondi says a "truckload" of Jeffrey Epstein files arrived on Friday, says FBI Director Kash Patel is looking through them now.
"We got them all Friday at 8AM. Thousands of pages of documents. I have the FBI going through them."
"It's now in the… https://t.co/rxABwmO5p2
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1896754684708188658?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Maybe they can ask Elon Musk and DOGE to scan and redact the documents by the end of the week, vs. stringing us along for what could now take months?
* * *
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are back In Stock! We just got a huge delivery.
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Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back, lifetime guarantee. If you're looking for a great daily carry, https://store.zerohedge.com/swat-micarta-blued
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https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 23:25
"This Is Really Gonna Get Me Assassinated": Musk Issues Warning Over Exposing DC Corruption
"This Is Really Gonna Get Me Assassinated": Musk Issues Warning Over Exposing DC Corruption
During a recent appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience, Elon Musk suggested that he'll be assassinated if he
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"It's more than just insider trading. The stock portfolio stuff is quite trackable, but it's a lot more than insider trading," said Musk.
"The way they're acquiring wealth?" Rogan asked.
...pause...
"Correct," replied Musk.
"And what other methods," asked Rogan.
"I mean this is really gonna get me assassinated," Musk replied. "It's like, I'm not lengthening my lifespan by explaining this stuff, to say the least. I mean, I was supposed to go back to DC. How am I going to survive? This is fucking going to kill me for sure," Musk continued.
"In fact, I do think like this... it's like, I actually have to be careful that I don't push too hard on the corruption stuff because it's going to get me killed."
Watch:
— Joe Rogan Podcast (@joeroganhq) https://twitter.com/joeroganhq/status/1896333111602159718?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
More highlights from the interview:
Musk and Rogan discuss how NGOs are nothing more than a money printing hack for the elite. (h/t https://x.com/Leksents/status/1895809208962166896
)
Elon Musk & Joe Rogan expose how NGOs are just a money-printing hack for the elite. Set up a nonprofit, give it a nice name, lobby politicians—then rake in billions in taxpayer cash.
George Soros mastered the game. The system is rigged. https://t.co/1AwEgg3ypM
— Aleks (@Leksents) https://twitter.com/Leksents/status/1895809208962166896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Musk then zeroed in on why the left is out to get him: Entitlements fraud...
"At the heart of the sort of like, why is the Democrat propaganda machine so fired up to destroy me? That's the main reason. The main reason is that, is that, entitlements fraud, that includes, like, Social Security, disability, Medicaid, entitlements fraud for illegal aliens is what is serving as a gigantic magnetic force to pull people in from all around the world and keep them here.
* * *
Back In Stock: Anza https://store.zerohedge.com/mini-swat-micarta
, only more concealable...
https://store.zerohedge.com/mini-swat-micarta
"Basically, if you pay people, at a standard of living that is above 90% of Earth, then you have a very powerful incentive for 90% of Earth to come here and to stay here. But if you if you end the illegal alien fraud, then you that you turn off that magnet, and they leave. And they they stop coming, and the and the ones that are here, many of them will simply leave." (h/t https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1895918975956988309
)
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1896217327043285107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The two also discussed why the Butler rally was the only one that CNN livestreamed, out of all the Trump rallies (implying someone tipped them off to the assassination attempt, which CNN has https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3836951761080-cnn-vehemently-rejects-joe-rogan-fueled-conspiracy-theory-that-cnn-aired-trump-rally-because-they-knew-he-d-be-shot
).
What are the chances https://twitter.com/CNN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1896001219765948779?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Watch the entire interview below:
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 16:40
Rickards On Gold's Historic Rally
Rickards On Gold's Historic Rally
https://dailyreckoning.com/golds-historic-rally/
Even casual observers know that gold has been trading near all-time highs lately. The dollar price of gold has been trading around $2,955 per ounce, quite close to the all-time closing high and near the recent intraday high just below $3,000 per ounce. Since November 1, 2022, gold has rallied from $1,650 per ounce to $2,955 per ounce, an 80% gain in 28 months.
Since the U.S. dollar is also near interim highs based on leading indices, gold’s performance when measured in euros, sterling or Swiss francs is even stronger. We expect this trend to continue and to push gold solidly above the $3,000 per ounce level on its way to even higher levels in the months ahead.
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Trump: Show Me The Gold!
That’s news in its own right but there’s a lot more going on in the gold space than just the price action. President Trump and Elon Musk (head of the Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, and the world’s richest man) are planning to visit Fort Knox in the near future to “audit” the gold stocks and make sure all of the gold is where it’s supposed to be. I’m certain that visit will be the mother of all photo-ops.
Of course, Trump and Musk will not be conducting a real audit in the financial sense. They’ll just look around and show that the gold is actually there. This should lay to rest the rumors and ill-founded theories that the gold is somehow missing or has been shipped to JPMorgan. It hasn’t been.
Make U.S. Assets Great Again
Even this publicity visit has not captured all of the gold news lately. On a more serious note, Scott Bessent the U.S. Treasury Secretary said recently that “within the next twelve months, we’re going to monetize the asset side of the balance sheet for the American people. We’re going to put the assets to work.” There has been so much focus on the liability side of the balance sheet (basically the $38 trillion in national debt) that it’s refreshing to hear a senior official talk about the asset side.
The liberal critics will wail that Bessent plans to sell Yosemite National Park to real estate developers. Nothing like that will happen but the U.S. does have ample assets it can sell, lease or otherwise monetize without invading national parks or wilderness areas. These include mineral and mining rights, intellectual property, airwaves, rights of way, flight paths, and, yes, property development rights and land sales in non-sensitive areas. No one has any idea what all of this is worth, but it’s certainly worth in the trillions of dollars and can be monetized for the benefit of the American people including paying down the national debt.
Gold dealers and gold bugs immediately focused on one particular U.S. asset that could be monetized – gold. The U.S. has 8,133 metric tonnes of gold bullion in three locations – Fort Knox, West Point and the Denver mint – that could be sold. That gold has a current market value of $771 billion. Of course, any effort to sell more than a small fraction of that would drive the price of gold straight down. It would be an immense blunder to sell any of it anyway. The Treasury should be buying gold to maintain confidence in the dollar, not selling it.
Another take on monetizing gold revolves around the fact that the Federal Reserve currently holds a gold certificate issued by the U.S. Treasury in 1934 in compensation for the transfer of gold bullion from the Fed to the Treasury on orders of Franklin Roosevelt (backed up by legislation). That certificate is valued on the Fed’s books at $42.22 per ounce. If the Treasury ordered the Fed to write-up the value to market, that would add $760 billion to the Treasury’s general account, which could be used to finance the U.S. government without adding new debt.
Marked Up Gold: Not A Revenue Stream
Trump definitely wants new revenue streams for the government. I wouldn’t count marking-up the price of gold as a revenue stream. It does produce cash with no addition to the national debt but it’s not really a revenue stream; it’s just an accounting entry. It does produce cash but only on a one-time basis. In principle, you could repeat the process if gold went higher in the future but that’s uncertain and not completely reliable like taxes, leases and tariffs.
Despite the gold bug claims, there is no particular connection between marking up the price of gold (accounting) and selling gold reserves for cash (monetizing). One has nothing to do with the other. The government could sell the gold today at the market price without having to wash the accounting through the Treasury general account at the Fed. There’s nothing about marking up the price of gold on the Fed’s books that affects the government’s ability to sell the gold one way or the other.
Can The U.S. Even Sell Gold?
Still, the issue of monetizing gold has to be put in the context of whether the government can legally sell any gold at all. If you convert the Fed’s gold certificate into Troy ounces of gold (not dollars but ounces), it’s approximately equal to the entire U.S. gold reserve today (8,133 metric tonnes). If the Fed’s gold certificate is intended to be backed by physical gold, it’s possible the government cannot sell any gold without diluting the Fed’s gold certificate.
This is not discussed in economic literature to my knowledge, but it could be a simple derivative of the Fifth Amendment constraint that required the Treasury to give the Fed something of fair value when the gold was confiscated in 1934. This happened when the U.S. was on a gold standard and the weight and value of gold were interchangeable.
That’s not true today. Weight is constant but value fluctuates. It may be the case that the Treasury has to maintain a certain amount of gold by weight regardless of value in order to honor the original deal. If this analysis is correct, that’s extremely bullish for gold. It means the world’s largest single holder of gold (the U.S.) cannot be a seller!
Another idea which has surfaced in the hype surrounding Bessent’s comments about monetizing assets is that the U.S. could sell gold and use the proceeds to buy foreign government bonds that ostensibly produce higher yields than U.S. Treasuries. An alternative is to issue Treasury bonds backed by gold that would (in theory) carry a zero interest rate because they are “inflation proof.” This creates an arbitrage between higher yielding foreign government debt and supposedly zero interest U.S. Treasury debt that produces income for the Treasury.
This idea is nonsense for a long list of reasons.
In the first place, the U.S. already has inflation adjusted Treasury bonds. They’re called TIPS and offer investors a market interest rate plus an adjustment for inflation. An inflation-proof gold-backed bond is therefore redundant. If you like gold, just go buy some. We don’t need to make the Treasury jump through bond market hoops.
The second reason is that gold is not particularly correlated to inflation. In the past two-and-a-half years, gold has gone up 80% and cumulative inflation has been around 10%. Where’s the correlation? The price of gold is driven more by uncertainty, liquidity and geopolitics. Indexing Treasury bonds to gold prices would have resulted in windfalls for investors and a huge loss for the Treasury.
In addition, it’s not clear why selling or monetizing gold reserves has anything to do with buying foreign government bonds. The Fed could just buy them with printed money and the Treasury could just buy them with borrowed money. The gold reserve issue has nothing to do with it.
Finally, the calculation of whether buying foreign sovereign bonds makes sense for the Treasury involves a comparison of U.S. interest rates to German or Italian interest rates. Right now, German interest rates are about two points lower than U.S. rates, so those bonds would have negative carry from the U.S. perspective. That’s a bad deal. You also have to factor in exchange-rate risk. If the euro went down against the U.S. dollar, the Treasury would lose on the exchange rate and the interest rate. That’s a very bad deal.
As mentioned, I recommend gold as an investment asset and own it myself. It’s just not the case that the Treasury has to mess around in gold, bond and currency markets to achieve some opaque goal that can be achieved directly just by leaving the gold in Fort Knox and issuing TIPS.
A U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
In the midst of the noise set off by Bessent’s monetization comments was a striking remark by Trump that he would like to establish a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. That’s highly significant.
Right now, official U.S. reserves are about 70% in gold with the rest in a few foreign currencies. The idea of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is to allow a country with reserves to diversify into stocks, bonds, natural resources, property and a lot else instead of just holding gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Most countries with SWFs finance it with their trade surplus. Norway, Russia and Saudi Arabia are among the biggest SWF holders in part because of their oil revenue trade surpluses. The U.S. doesn’t have a trade surplus, but we might soon have substantial revenues from tariffs. The U.S. could always borrow money to finance a sovereign wealth fund. Then it would be more like a hedge fund, but that might be Trump’s style. (Scott Bessent was a hedge fund manager for Soros).
I did extensive collections and research on sovereign wealth funds for the Director of National Intelligence when it was a hot topic around 2007-2008. The SWF issue faded after 2009 as it was overshadowed by the global financial crisis. SWFs lost a lot of money in that panic. But they never went away and have recovered their losses since then. Trump may bring SWFs back into style.
Bessent’s asset monetization comment and Trump’s reference to a sovereign wealth fund for the U.S. are critical initiatives that we’ll be watching closely. In the short run, the gold bug and other hype has run far ahead of the reality. In the long run, both initiatives may come to fruition and mark a material reset in the international monetary system
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 14:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/rickards-golds-historic-rally
The 'Best Picture' Is Rarely A Box Office Hit
The 'Best Picture' Is Rarely A Box Office Hit
"Anora", a comedy drama telling the story of a stripper who marries the son of a Russian oligarch, was the biggest winner at the 97th Academy Awards on Sunday.
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The film, written and directed by Sean Baker, won five Oscars, including the prestigious “Best Picture” category, one for Mikey Madison as best leading actress and a record-breaking four Oscars for Baker’s work producing, directing, editing and writing the dramedy.
Anora’s triumph was also a win for independent filmmaking over large studio productions.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8298/best-picture-winners-box-office/
despite being praised by critics and winning several awards throughout the past year, including the Palme d’Or in Cannes and wins at the Directors and Writers Guilds Awards, the film grossed only $41 million at the box office internationally, making it one of the lowest-grossing Best Picture winners ever.
However, it is quite common for Best Picture winners to be underachievers in the commercial sense.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8298/best-picture-winners-box-office/
most Best Picture winners in recent years didn’t make nearly as much money as the respective year’s biggest box office hit, illustrating that commercial success and critical acclaim often don't go hand in hand.
https://www.statista.com/chart/8298/best-picture-winners-box-office/
You will find more infographics at https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/
Prior to last year's winner "Oppenheimer", the last true blockbuster to win the Best Picture award was the third and final part of Peter Jackson’s "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy, which raked in $1.1 billion at the box office worldwide and was crowned Best Picture in 2004.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 13:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/best-picture-rarely-box-office-hit
OIl Prices Plunge As OPEC+ 'Delegate' Hints At Output Hikes 'Due To Trump Pressure'
OIl Prices Plunge As OPEC+ 'Delegate' Hints At Output Hikes 'Due To Trump Pressure'
Bloomberg is reporting, according to a 'delegate' that OPEC+ will proceed with plans to revive halted oil production after repeated delays, amid pressure from President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.
The surprise move - which immediately sent crude prices reeling - means the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will go ahead with the increase of 138,000 barrels a day in April (again, according to the delegate).
Bloomberg notes that crude traders had widely expected that OPEC+ would once again delay the restart, which it had postponed three times since first announcing a supply roadmap last June.
Crude prices immediately plunged back below $70 (WTI) on the headline...
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..taking out 2025 lows...
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It wouldn't be the first time that a headline was run ahead of an OPEC+ meeting to run stops, and we wonder what's the over/under on the timing of an official OPEC+ denial.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 13:22
Academia Learned Nothing From Trump's Revolt Against DEI Nonsense
Academia Learned Nothing From Trump's Revolt Against DEI Nonsense
https://mishtalk.com/economics/academia-learned-nothing-from-trumps-revolt-against-dei-nonsense/
Let’s discuss a theory that the Left learned hard lessons from the election.
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Proposed Theory: Academia Is Finally Learning Hard Lessons
Washington Post writer Megan McArdle says https://wapo.st/3QDlMth
. I respond inline in brackets. That is a free link.
The Trump administration is not just trying to get the government under control or save taxpayers money. It is mounting a frontal assault on every center of left-wing institutional power it can reach: academia, the civil service, nonprofits. The object is to break these institutions so badly that the next Democratic administration will not be able to put them back the way they were.
I probably don’t have to tell our readers why this is bad. [Actually you do, but can’t, because it’s a good thing]
Since you know that, [Well, we don’t know that because it’s false] let me make a less obvious and probably less welcome point: The left, not the right, picked this fight. This was politically naive and criminally stupid for institutions that rely so heavily on U.S. taxpayer support. [For starters, it’s completely obvious, not less obvious, and the Left did it on purpose, too. But the following two sentences are things McArdle gets right. It was criminally stupid and politically naive]
It has long been clear that cuts to research funding could be the first step if Republicans were so minded. The student loans and Pell grants that subsidize tuition could be slashed, the tax rules that let elite institutions accumulate massive endowments could be changed, and in red states, government aid to public schools could be reduced. The resulting budget holes would be calamitous in many cases and would filter through the ecosystem even to schools that survived. [Let’s hope so]
Nonetheless, school administrations began issuing left-wing hot takes on news that played to the culture war, and students agitated, often successfully, to de-platform right-wing speakers and punish students or faculty who deviated from progressive orthodoxy. [Another correct paragraph]
Even if you think this was a move in the right moral direction, it was dangerous behavior. [No one in their right mind should believe this was the right moral directions. And academia did not only go along for the ride, it embraced and fostered the cancel culture]
Fundamentally, they took their prestige and public support for granted and seemed unable to imagine a world where the word “education” no longer conjured reverent deference among most of the population. [Again correct, but where the hell is proof the Left learned anything from this?]
Like children throwing rocks from an overpass, they felt protected by their elevated position, assuming their targets could do little but yell back. They weren’t expecting one of the drivers to get out of the car and grab a baseball bat from the trunk. [More accurately, the Left welcomed this battle in the foolish belief that Trump could never win again. Now they whine about the result]
None of which justifies what Republicans are doing now. It is crude, destructive and — like a baseball bat — unconscionably disproportionate. [That statement shows how clueless not only McArdle is, but all of the Progressive Left. Dismantling DEI is 100 percent welcome and needed]
But complaining about Republicans, while emotionally satisfying, isn’t very useful. The institutional left can’t control what Republicans do. It can only control its own behavior. And that behavior, however well-intentioned, was reckless in the extreme. [Complaining about DEI dismantling is further proof the Left learned nothing. They should be admitting DEI was a big mistake and apologize for the mistake. Instead they take DEI out of department names hoping to disguise what they are still doing]
What Lesson Was Learned?
Does anyone get a sense the Left learned anything from this?
McArdle mostly blames Trump. She also says the Left picked this fight.
Thank goodness I can freely say “she” without having to ask ridiculous questions about pronouns. But it was the “extreme-Left”, led by academia, that picked this fight, not just “the Left”.
The average center-Left, center-Right, Libertarian, and far-Right person is sick of Black Lives Matter, ridiculous nonbinary sex theories, favoritism for non-whites, praise for Hamas, college application favoritism, men playing female sports, and all the other bullsheet that the radical Left supports.
Progressive Derangement Syndrome
The Wall Street Journal comments on https://www.wsj.com/opinion/maines-transgender-madness-8dabbfbe
.
If Democrats want to know why so many voters abandoned them in November, they could take a gander at the progressive meltdown in Maine. On Tuesday the Maine House of Representatives voted to censure Republican Rep. Laurel Libby for posting photos of a transgender high school athlete on Facebook.
The teenager, who previously competed in boys’ track and field, switched to compete in the girls’ pole vault this year, winning the class B state championship. “This is outrageous and unfair to the many female athletes who work every day to succeed in their respective sports,” Ms. Libby wrote on Facebook.
Cue full-on progressive derangement. Lawmakers voted 75-70 to formally reprimand Ms. Libby. The censure means she isn’t allowed to speak or vote in the Legislature unless she apologizes. She has said she will not.
I propose a new acronym, PDSTM, for Progressive Derangement Syndrome. A quick search shows the PDSTM is untaken.
AOC Says She’s Fighting President Trump’s “Illusion of Power”
NPR reports https://www.npr.org/2026/01/01/1263815027/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-interview-steve-inskeep-trump-musk
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a New York Democrat, says she thinks Republicans have begun making mistakes… and her party is resolved to strike back.
Colleges Cautiously Navigate Trump’s DEI Crackdown
The AP reports https://apnews.com/article/trump-dei-college-university-9f26a51617744de5c3f929a293027758
In Boston, Northeastern University renamed a program for underrepresented students, emphasizing “belonging” for all.
And around the U.S., colleges are assessing program names and titles that could run afoul of a Trump administration crackdown on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.
As they figure out how to adapt, some schools are staying quiet out of uncertainty, or fear. President Donald Trump has called for compliance investigations at some schools with endowments over $1 billion.
Others have vowed to stand firm.
The president of Mount Holyoke College, a liberal arts school in Massachusetts, said she hopes colleagues in higher education will not capitulate to Trump’s vision for the country. Danielle Holley said she believes Trump’s orders are vulnerable to legal challenges.
“Anything that is done to simply disguise what we’re doing is not helpful,” said Holley, who is Black. “It validates this notion that our values are wrong. And I don’t believe that the value of saying we live in a multiracial democracy is wrong.”
Many colleges have said they are no less committed to recruiting students of color and helping all students succeed, even if strategies change or go by a different name.
Northeastern changed the name of what had been called “The Office of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion” to “Belonging in Northeastern,” which it described as a “reimagined approach” that embraces everyone at the school.
Here’s the height of not learning delusion.
California Polytechnic professor Cameron Jones said he is worried whether he would still get a $150,000 National Endowment for the Humanities grant to study the history of African descendants in early California, even though it’s not a DEI grant. He also worries about the ban’s effect on his students, especially students of color.
There is no value in taxpayer-funded studies on the history of African descendants in early California. That idiot and all like him should be fired. But that won’t happen.
So instead, I suggest we shut down the entire National Endowment for the Humanities.
Dear Megan McArdle
Where is there any evidence radical Progressives learned a damn thing from this Trumpian revolt?
But it’s not just Democrats who fail to learn.
Lesson for Republicans
Blacks and young adults did not swing the election to Trump because they suddenly became Conservative.
Rather, it was a protest vote against the extreme-Left who hijacked the Democratic party.
President Biden who campaigned on a platform of being a moderate and a healer morphed into the Progressive’s wet dream candidate.
When Biden was finally forced to drop out over dementia (that the Left hid until it was impossible to hide), the babbling word-salad fool Kamala Harris took over.
Mandate? What Mandate?
Despite winning a huge majority of the electoral college, Republicans barely held the House.
Polls do show Trump has a huge mandate to stamp out DEI nonsense.
However, Trump has no mandate for bombing Mexico, breaking trade deals ratified by Congress 89-10, or destroying small businesses with preposterous tariff experiments.
To believe Trump has a mandate to do those things is no better than Democrats’ belief that Biden had a mandate to overrule the Supreme Court on student loans.
Plight of Small Businesses
On January 31, I noted https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-bls-confirms-us-is-now-losing-jobs-in-net-business-creation/
The BLS BED report provides further confirmation the BLS Birth/Death jobs model is seriously screwed up.
I also wrote about the plight of small businesses this morning in https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-one-small-business-owner-is-coping-with-trumps-tariffs/
Fifty-four percent of small businesses polled said that tariffs would negatively affect their companies, while just 11 percent said they would benefit.
Please read that if you haven’t already.
Bullying allies like Canada and Mexico, and nonsensical tariff theories will backfire.
And Republicans hypocrites won’t do a thing about massive budget deficits.
Neither party is willing to learn anything. That’s the sad reality.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 13:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/academia-learned-nothing-trumps-revolt-against-dei-nonsense
Critical Wildfire Risk For Millions Across US; South Carolina Gov. Declares Emergency Over Blaze
Critical Wildfire Risk For Millions Across US; South Carolina Gov. Declares Emergency Over Blaze
Meteorologists mark March 1st as the official start of meteorological spring across the Lower 48, signaling a seasonal shift toward warmer temperatures and stronger winds. With the change of season, forecasters are warning of elevated wildfire risks across the Southern states.
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The National Interagency Coordination Center, operating under the National Interagency Fire Center and overseeing federal wildfire response efforts, has released new fire risk outlook maps for the Lower 48. The maps show elevated fire risks across large portions of the Southeastern US and Texas through February.
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The US Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via US Drought Monitor, shows extreme droughts in the Southwest US, severe to moderate droughts in the Central US, and mild to severe on the East Coast.
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NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System, which utilizes near real-time satellite data, shows wildfires burning across the Southeast, including in states such as the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.
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On Sunday, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency as 163 wildfires burned about 5,400 acres.
The scene less than 5 miles from my house in Carolina Forest SC (Myrtle Beach) https://t.co/buI0XpXXPq
— Timothy J Jones (@tjayjones8) https://twitter.com/tjayjones8/status/1896202897374978079?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
South Carolina is on fire https://t.co/Gck9w39ddN
— Americana Mama (@AmericanaMama_) https://twitter.com/AmericanaMama_/status/1896482326453924059?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The good news is that meteorologists say the high-pressure system boosting warm temperatures and low humidity, ripe for wildfires, will be pushed out of the Southeast by a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 13:00
EU Defense Promises Soar, "Turbocharging" Aerospace & Defense Stocks
EU Defense Promises Soar, "Turbocharging" Aerospace & Defense Stocks
European markets opened higher on Monday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 gaining nearly 1%, while defense stocks erupted amid expectations of increased military spending. The jump in EU defense stocks follows last week's https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-meets-zelensky-says-minerals-deal-be-signed-today-will-use-ukraine-rare-earths?ref=redicate.com
.
The Goldman EU Aerospace and Defense Index jumped 12.5% to a record high after European leaders met on Sunday to discuss increased support for Ukraine and broader security measures across the continent. Individual names skyrocketed, with Rheinmetall soaring 11.5%, BAE Systems jumping 13.5%, Leonardo 11%, and Rolls-Royce gaining 5%. France's Thales jumped 11.5% and Dassault Aviation +15%.
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JPMorgan analysts told clients earlier that events in recent weeks "turbocharged" their thesis of increased defense spending for EU states:
"There are 30 European countries in NATO, and we expect many of them will soon commit to much higher defence spending."
In a separate note, Goldman analyst James Fitzsimmons cited thoughts from his trading desk about the surge in defense stocks:
"Seems breakdown in US/Ukraine talks have put the momentum behind a European initiative (UK + France) that could bring increased defence spending, security guarantees and a mineral deal. Equally stories coming from Germany on increased defence spending: "Economists advising the parties that will likely form a new government coalition estimate around 400 billion euros ($415 billion) are needed for the defense fund and 400 billion to 500 billion euros for the infrastructure fund, the people said."
Goldman analyst Fahad Javid shared insights on how European nations plan to ramp up defense spending:
"EU Defence Spending – European leaders meet this week to agree on a common strategy for increasing defence spending and identifying the best ways to fund a structural shift in fiscal policy. Funding military spending through national debt would create tensions with the fiscal consolidation required by the new European fiscal framework. EU member states could borrow from existing EU institutions like the European Stability Mechanism and European Investment Bank. EU debt could provide stable funding shielding defence spending from idiosyncratic national factors. The EU could also consider establishing a new European funding programme in conjunction with strategic partners like the UK or Norway. We continue to expect the EU to use national debt, NGEU and a new funding facility, in that sequence."
Chart of The Day: The structural increase in government spending ranges implies an increase in the structural deficit between 0.5% - 1% BY 2027.
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Goldman's Sven Jari Stehn, Filippo Taddei, and others examined the different funding options for increased military spending:
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Stehn noted, "We expect the EU to gradually increase annual military spending to reach 2.5% of GDP by 2027 in line with different policy announcements."
All it took was Turmp's hard lining with Zelenskyy last week to get the Europeans to increase defense spending to adequate levels.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 07:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/eu-defense-promises-soar-turbocharging-defense-stocks
'Spoiling For A Fight' - Judge Blocks Trump's Firing Of Head Of Office Of Special Counsel
'Spoiling For A Fight' - Judge Blocks Trump's Firing Of Head Of Office Of Special Counsel
Late Saturday, D.C. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled that President Donald Trump violated federal law in firing Hampton Dellinger, head of the Office of Special Counsel. Jackson’s decision is forceful, well-written, and challengeable under existing precedent. Indeed, it may have just set up an appeal that both presidents and professors have long waited for to reinforce presidential powers.
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Appointed by President Joe Biden (and son of the respected liberal scholar and Clinton acting Solicitor General Walter Dellinger), Hampton Dellinger was confirmed by the Senate for a five-year term beginning in 2024. He sued after receiving an email with a perfunctory termination notice shortly after the inauguration. The various inspector generals were also terminated and, at the time, some of us raised concerns over compliance with underlying federal statutes. The issue was not likely the outcome but the process for such removals. However, while many objected to the Helter-Skelter approach to such terminations, there may be a method to this madness. Indeed, this ruling may be precisely what the Trump Administration is seeking as the foundation for a major new constitutional challenge.
Dellinger’s claim is based in large part on the Civil Service Reform Act, which provides that the Special Counsel “may be removed by the President only for inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” 5 U.S.C. 1211(b). The notice gave none of these grounds for the termination even though “inefficiency” and “neglect” are a fairly ambiguous and malleable rationale.
Judge Jackson held that the firing clearly violated the controlling statute and that the Act itself was constitutional. She emphasized that, while there are grounds for presidents to claim the power for at-will terminations, those cases have tended to be offices that carry out executive functions. Jackson described the Special Counsel as an essentially harmless office vis-à-vis executive authority: “Special Counsel acts as an ombudsman, a clearinghouse for complaints and allegations, and after looking into them, he can encourage the parties to resolve the matter among themselves. But if that fails, he must direct them elsewhere.” She noted that earlier cases supporting the executive power to fire executive officials involved “restrictions on the President’s ability to remove an official who wields significant executive authority. The Special Counsel simply does not.”
Judge Jackson has a good-faith reliance on her narrow reading of existing precedent. However, it is far from conclusive and brushes over some striking conflicts with prior rulings of the Supreme Court. Jackson insisted that a contrary ruling would undermine the very point of the Special Counsel office: “its independence,” However, that is the very point that has irked both Democratic and Republican presidents for years.
In 1978, President Jimmy Carter objected on these grounds. The Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel explained that, “[b]ecause the Special Counsel [would] be performing largely executive functions, the Congress [could] not restrict the President’s power to remove him.” 2 Op. O.L.C. 120, 121 (1978).
It is unclear whether the current Supreme Court would agree with an exception for minor or de minimus intrusions. Many scholars and judges believe that a president either has Article II authority to fire executive branch officials or he does not.
Notably, there are only four single agency heads who were given tenure protection by Congress: the Directors of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), the Commissioner of Social Security, and the Special Counsel. In 2020, the Court ruled in Seila Law LLC v. CFPB that Congress had violated Article II by granting tenure protection to that sole agency head: “The CFPB’s single-Director structure contravene[d] [Article II’s] carefully calibrated system by vesting significant governmental power in the hands of a single individual accountable to no one.” Id. at 224.
Then, in 2021, in Collins v. Yellen, the Court rejected the same claim as to the director of the FHFA. That opinion came with directly opposing language to Jackson’s rationale. The Court found that Seila Law to be “all but dispositive” on the question and expressly rejected the argument that this would change depending upon “the nature and breadth of an agency’s authority.” The Court held that the “[c]ourts are not well-suited to weigh the relative importance of the regulatory and enforcement authorities of disparate agencies.”
Given these cases, lower courts clearly got the message – a message amplified by President Joe Biden who appointed Dellinger. On the third “independent” position, the Commissioner of Social Security, Biden’s Office of Legal Counsel declared that “the best reading of Collins and Seila Law” is that “the President need not heed the Commissioner’s statutory tenure protection.” Two circuits (the Ninth and Eleventh) have ruled consistently with that interpretation in favor of executive authority to remove such officers.
Ultimately, Dellinger can be removed even if this decision stands. The Trump Administration could have easily cited a basis like inefficiency or neglect. The question is why it decided not to do so. Clearly, it could just be a chainsaw approach to cutting positions. However, it may also reflect a desire for some in the Administration to challenge lingering case law limiting executive powers. In other words, they seem to be spoiling for a fight.
The reason may be Humphrey’s Executor v. United States (1935), which established the right of Congress to create independent agencies. It found that Congress could, without violating Article II powers, provide tenure protection to “a multimember body of experts, balanced along partisan lines, that performed legislative and judicial functions and was said not to exercise any executive power.” The Court in cases like Seila Law cited that precedent for one of the exceptions to executive power. It also cited an exception for giving tenure protection to “certain inferior officers with narrowly defined duties,” under Morrison v. Olson (1988). Jackson cited both cases and those exceptions in shoehorning the Special Counsel into a narrow band of quasi-executive positions.
What may be overlooked in the filings of the Administration before the Supreme Court in the Dellinger case was this line in a footnote: “Humphrey’s Executor appears to have misapprehended the powers of “the New Deal-era [Federal Trade Commission]” and misclassified those powers as primarily legislative and judicial.” It went on to suggest that the case is not only wrongly decided but that the Justice Department “intends to urge this Court to overrule that decision.”
Described by the Court as “the outer-most constitutional limits of permissible congressional restrictions on the President’s removal power,” the Trump Administration appears set to try to redraw that constitutional map.
That is why Jackson’s opinion may not only be expected but welcomed by the Trump Administration. It is hunting for bigger game than Dellinger and Judge Jackson just gave it a clear shot for the Supreme Court.
* * *
Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2Fexec%2Fobidos%2FASIN%2F1668047047%3Ftag%3Dsimonsayscom&data=05%7C02%7CDFreddoso%40thehill.com%7Cce3c9dc02c24470c534008dd12d814f1%7C9e5488e2e83844f6886cc7608242767e%7C1%7C0%7C638687441535176515%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=k5fEv5U%2FfqcDIOipOj6kSiPbIfFkv2RL3ryF6pALU%2BE%3D&reserved=0
.”
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Mon, 03/03/2025 - 07:20
Trump Moves To Bolster Nation's Lumber Supplies & Address National Security Risks
Trump Moves To Bolster Nation's Lumber Supplies & Address National Security Risks
President Trump, who campaigned on a pledge to end the Biden-Harris regime's "inflation nightmare," sparked by out-of-control government spending, has signed multiple executive orders to begin the process of delivering emergency price relief to the average American household.
President Trump's latest executive order directs his administration to investigate whether imports of timber, lumber, and related wood products threaten US national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The order also calls for measures to bolster domestic supply, aiming to reduce residential and commercial construction costs.
Here are the key points from the executive order titled "Addressing The Threat To National Security from Imports of Timber, Lumber":
The US has sufficient timber resources but remains a net importer of lumber.
Foreign subsidies and dumping practices threaten domestic industry competitiveness.
The investigation will assess domestic production capacity, foreign supply chains, trade policies, and potential national security risks.
Within 270 days, the Secretary of Commerce must report findings and recommend potential actions, including tariffs, quotas, or policy measures to strengthen the US timber and lumber supply chain.
Last week, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, "We are freeing up our forests ... and we have an emergency order to do that," adding, "We have more forest than almost anybody ... we don't need trees from Canada."
JUST IN: President Trump says he is signing an emergency order to "free up forests" for more lumber production in the United States.
An influx of new, cheap lumber will drastically reduce the cost of new housing construction. LET'S GO! https://t.co/Q4savP36ct
— Rep. Dwayne Yunker HD3 (@RepYunker) https://twitter.com/RepYunker/status/1894732760113398172?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The executive order seeks to expand domestic wood production to lower construction costs. It is expected to roll back Biden-era timber and lumber 'green' policies, which have been blamed for increasing wildfire risks, harming fish and wildlife habitats, and driving up housing and construction expenses.
Snarled supply chains during the Covid era sent plywood costs through the roof.
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In a Jan. 20 executive order, Trump ordered "emergency price relief" for Americans on housing costs and other living expenses...
"Many Americans are unable to purchase homes due to historically high prices, in part due to regulatory requirements that alone account for 25 percent of the cost of constructing a new home according to recent analysis," the order said.
Housing affordability trends remain at a https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/three-ways-restore-housing-affordability
.
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The emerging growth scare (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-tariffs-troubling-narrative-continues-brewing
) may be enough to lower borrowing costs.
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The White House stated in an earlier executive order that it is addressing Biden's "destructive policies, which inflicted a historic inflation crisis on the American people."
* * *
Support independent media. Grab a https://store.zerohedge.com/zerohedge-waxed-canvas-hat
!
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Mon, 03/03/2025 - 06:55
On The Brink Of A Multipolar World, India's Grand Strategy Is Largely Defined By China, Analysts Say
On The Brink Of A Multipolar World, India's Grand Strategy Is Largely Defined By China, Analysts Say
(emphasis ours),
This article is the second in a series titled “India: The Next Five Years.” Conversations with subject experts, thought leaders, innovators, strategists, and diplomats will explore India’s foreign relations and its global outlook from 2024 to 2029.
India, the world’s fastest-growing economy, is also growing in its understanding of itself. As it does so, its “grand strategy”—the way it views its place in the world—is largely defined by China, experts say.
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“China looms increasingly large in India’s strategic consciousness,” writes Dhruva Jaishankar in his recently released https://www.amazon.com/Vishwa-Shastra-India-Dhruva-Jaishankar/dp/0670091057
, “Vishwa Shastra: India and the World.”
“Indeed, China’s rise is likely the primary factor influencing India’s grand strategy today.”
“Vishwa Shastra,” is a Sanskrit phrase that means “treatise on the world.” The book offers a consolidated, linear analysis of Indian foreign policy from ancient to modern times.
Jaishankar, who serves as executive director of the Washington-based Observer Research Foundation, told The Epoch Times in an exclusive interview that there are broadly five objectives to India’s “grand strategy.”
“Strengthening India at home, militarily and economically, is [the] number one priority. [Second is] ensuring a stable neighborhood, which has been a big challenge, but the neighborhood has always, again, been a first priority internationally,” Jaishankar said.
Maintaining a balance of power is India’s third priority. The fourth is to address legacy issues concerning India’s partition, which led to the formation of Pakistan and created larger regional consequences. The fifth is to advocate for India’s adequate participation in global rule-making institutions, he said.
These five objectives have largely defined India’s grand strategy since its independence in 1947. Today’s India has more opportunities and resources to achieve these objectives than it has ever had before, according to Jaishankar.
“India is less on the defensive than in the past. It has more resources than in the past. So that’s good in many respects. It has an ability to modernize. It has an ability to settle some of the issues in its periphery. It has the ability to bypass and isolate Pakistan and things like that.”
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Articulating India’s Grand Strategy
Srikanth Kondapalli, dean of the School of International Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), told The Epoch Times that every major power has a grand strategy that defines its trajectory, looking out 20 to 25 years. Along with its planning for economic, technological, and military development, the grand strategy details a country’s national ethos.
An expert on China’s foreign and security policies, Kondapalli said how much of a nation’s grand strategy is disclosed depends upon the purpose ascribed to it by that nation.
“For example, the Americans have the [Quadrennial] Defense Review and national security strategy. ... The Russians have a strategy like this. The UK has one. China also articulated it in terms of national rejuvenation by 2049, and they have several steps—from up to 2021 up to 2035,” said Kondapalli.
India’s grand strategy has rarely been explicitly articulated, and various authors have attempted to express the country’s vision. Jaishankar’s work attempts to define India’s global impact, exactly 25 years away from the mid-century world. The mid-century is also the timeframe of China’s grand strategy of national rejuvenation, sometimes dubbed “Global China 2049” or “China 2049.”
Kondapalli cited “India 2020,” a 1998 work by India’s former president, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y. S. Rajan. The book outlined a strategy for a developed India looking at the first two decades of the new millennium.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has expressed Indian strategy as “Viksit Bharat 2047.” The phrase “Viksit Bharat,” which means “developed India,” conveys the Indian government’s vision to transform the country into a self-reliant and prosperous economy by 2047.
Kondapalli described the areas defined under Viksit Bharat 2027 as “soft areas of the grand strategy.”
Meanwhile, many of India’s security-related issues are kept guarded and undisclosed, he said. A number of the undisclosed areas concern China.
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The Biggest Obstacle—China
Despite its possibilities, India faces many challenges to the achievement of its grand strategy. Looming large among them is China, which analysts define as a major challenge to India’s rise on the world stage.
Geography and history provide the context for the challenge from China. That’s according to Monish Tourangbam, director of the India-based Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies.
“Since its inception in 1949, the Sino–Indian war of 1962 and its rise as a global power in the 21st century, communist China has influenced the conception and operationalization of India’s grand strategy,” Tourangbam told The Epoch Times.
Jaishankar said China challenges each of India’s grand strategy objectives.
“The biggest obstacle in each of these five objectives today, arguably, is China. So China is the biggest obstacle to India’s defense procurement, its technology policy, its trade policy, its industrial policy,” he said.
Kondapalli said that since 2009, India has viewed China as a “long-term threat” to its strategic plans. He defined a short-term threat as one within a timeline of five years, a medium-term as 15 years, and long term as one with a timeline of about 35 years.
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It was in 2009 that the Indian position shifted to fighting a two-front war—meaning against Pakistan and China—“under the nuclear threshold,” he said, “because both are nuclear.”
“But this is the armed forces strategy, rather than national strategy,” he said, adding that India faces tremendous challenges from China from all other fronts.
Kondapalli said that within India’s grand strategy, the China factor is “uncertain or even negative” due to its territorial dispute with India. He said this dispute is long-term.
“This is not going to be resolved [in the short term]. So you have to factor China in the territorial dispute in the grand strategy,” he said.
Jaishankar cited active competition from China in India’s neighborhood—in countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Meanwhile, the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific has also been altered by China’s rise. India is working with other countries to counter that, he added.
Even in international institutions, China is trying to block India’s ascent, he noted.
“China is ultimately the main power most responsible for blocking, say, U.N. Security Council reform, India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group on certain trade issues, and things like that. There is a conflict of interest,” he said.
India’s role in global institutions is increasing. Throughout its 2023 presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) international forum, it played a crucial role in an expanded BRICS and in other platforms of global governance, according to Tourangbam.
However, China is using a two-pronged approach to challenge that increasing influence, he said.
“China’s challenge to India’s rise in global institutions is both ideational and material,” Tourangbam said. India’s democracy and its inclusive model of global governance make it appealing, he said. However, China’s sheer economic size and influence are a challenge for New Delhi to navigate in global institutions.
China’s grand strategy is to be number one: to replace the United States, in particular. Beijing also wants to be number one in Asia, Kondapalli said. But there are powers in Asia—India, Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam—that can compete for that influence and do not want China to mitigate their footprint.
“China’s role in South Asia, Southeast Asia, where it wants to marginalize India, is not acceptable to India,” he said. India’s grand strategy will thus include countering the Chinese grand strategy vis-a-vis territorial issues and competition in Asia.
There are many elements of the strategy, he noted. One element is the QUAD alliance between India, the United States, Japan, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific. Another is Exercise Malabar—joint maritime military exercises between the QUAD countries. Another element is the individual Free Trade Agreements between India and various nations.
And yet another is the recent Modi–Trump meeting. Of that, Kondapelli said, “what transpired we don’t know.”
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Looking Toward a Multipolar World
With its rapid economic growth, India is forecast to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the United States and China.
Jaishankar described three global schools of thought—unipolarity, bipolarity, and multipolarity—viewed from the perspectives of the three likely leading global economies over the next two decades: the United States, China, and India.
The academic terms describe three systems of geopolitical power distribution. A unipolar world is dominated by one power; a bipolar world is dominated by two major powers, and in a multipolar world, power is distributed among several states.
India’s grand strategy needs to be understood in the context of expectations that it will make the list of top global powers in the near future, he said.
The United States “is number one,” Jaishankar said. “In an ideal world, the U.S. wants a unipolar world. It has a pure competitor in China today.”
Meanwhile, China—despite its long-term ambition for a unipolar world in which it is number one—acknowledges the bipolarity of today’s world. Its ambition to be the leading global power does not contradict that acknowledgment.
“When China says it wants a new type of great power relationship or talks of avoiding the Thucydides Trap, it is actually acknowledging a bipolar world, but asking the U.S. not to contest it,” Jaishankar said. The Thucydides Trap is the theory—popularized by Harvard scholar Graham Allison—that when a rising global power threatens a ruling one, war frequently results.
Further, “India, being number three, wants a multipolar [world],” he said. “So I think part of it just depends on where they sit.”
While China supports multilateralism on certain issues and forums, Tourangban said, its support is aimed at blunting America’s influence.
India, on the other hand, aims to create a more inclusive global order, he said.
“India wants to create an externally conducive security environment for its economic rise, and its support for a multipolar world order recognizes the interdependence of economies. Expanding its basket of economic partners, without jeopardizing its core security interests, lies at the heart of India’s support for effective multilateralism in a multipolar world,” he said.
With India’s imminent rise as the third largest global economy, a new global economic paradigm will evolve, according to Jaishankar.
The U.S. economy is currently worth over $30 trillion. The Chinese economy is worth over $19 trillion. India is currently the fifth-largest global economy. It is expected to steal Japan’s fourth-place spot in the next year or so. And, according to a report from S&P Global Ratings, by 2030, India is expected to surpass $7 trillion and become the world’s third-largest economy.
Nonetheless, “there [will] be a big gap between the U.S. and China, on the one hand, and between China and India on the other,” Jaishankar said. There will also emerge a big gap between India and everyone else on that list, he said. But precisely by virtue of that gap, India will play a leading role in a multipolar world, he said.
The situation will secure a unique place for India, Jaishankar said. India will guard that place to prevent its interests from being marginalized in decision-making by the United States and China.
“India will strive for a more multipolar world, which means a world where everything is not simply decided by the U.S. and China. I think that’s a great, good concern for India,” he said.
How India will secure and advance its interests in a multipolar world order will be a “test of fire” for India’s grand strategy, said Tourangbam.
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India’s Role in World Order
When asked what role India would play in facilitating a multipolar world, Jaishankar listed a number of objectives.
Those include taking a leadership role in Southeast Asia, securing the Indian Ocean, connecting with its neighbors and with the Middle East, and using “carrots and sticks” to coax Pakistan away from supporting terror groups.
They also include managing India’s relationship with China in a way that promotes competition but doesn’t lead to conflict, according to Jaishankar.
Delving into this further, Kondapalli explained that India’s approach to multilateral forums is led by its interests.
Both India and China are a part of various common multilateral forums. It’s assumed that they are not there to discuss bilateral issues or sovereignty issues, he said. Instead, their involvement implies that problems can be resolved through confidence-building measures and peaceful strategies.
Multilateral forums can be useful for advancing bilateral issues. Kondapalli cited a subtle approach by India on multilateral platforms—one example being the meeting between Modi and China’s Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan last year. The two leaders decided to let their national security advisers discuss their territorial dispute.
“And then we saw some forward momentum in this regard,” he said.
Jaishankar emphasized that India’s thought leadership in a multipolar world would involve working with balancing powers, like the United States, Japan, Australia, and others, to “diversify and strengthen” supply chains.
It would also mean countering China by diversifying Indian strategic interests. Having many strategic or economic partners would ensure that if China threatened to cut off supply chains or investment, it would not unduly affect India, he said.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/03/2025 - 00:00
Putin Ally In Secret Talks With Trump Admin To Restart Nord Stream 2
Putin Ally In Secret Talks With Trump Admin To Restart Nord Stream 2
A close friend of Vladimir Putin - and like the Russian president, also a spy - has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, a once unthinkable move which according to the https://www.ft.com/content/dc9c51ab-03cb-47ba-ad0a-09c4deed9b50
, shows the breadth of Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Moscow. According to the Nikkei-owned publication, the efforts on a deal were the brainchild of Matthias Warnig, an ex-Stasi officer in East Germany who until 2023 ran Nord Stream 2’s parent company for the Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom.
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Warnig’s plan involved outreach to the Trump team through US businessmenas part of back-channel efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine while deepening economic ties between the US and Russia.
If this was just some unilateral attempt to get the pipeline that was bombed by Western intelligence agents and assorited Ukrainian hangers-on back online, it would hardly be a surprise. However, according to the report it appears that at least several "prominent" Trump administration figures are aware of the initiative to bring in US investors, and they see it as part of the push to rebuild relations with Moscow.
While there have been several expressions of interest, one US-led consortium of investors has drawn up the outlines of a post-sanctions deal with Gazprom.
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Meanwhile, senior EU officials have become aware of the Nord Stream 2 discussion only in recent weeks, and leaders of several European countries are concerned and have discussed the matter, although it is unclear what the prevailing sense on the ground within the corridors of Brussels. It is far easier, for example, to guess what Germany thinks about a return of much cheaper and far more abundant Russian energy if virtue signaling and politics were not an issue.
One of Nord Stream 2’s two pipelines was blown up in what now appears to have been a US attack in September 2022 that destroyed both pipelines of its older sister project Nord Stream 1. The other Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has an annual capacity of 27.5bn cubic metres of natural gas, is undamaged but has never been used.
The latest plan would in theory give the US unparalleled sway over energy supplies to Europe, after EU countries moved to end their dependence on Russian gas in the aftermath of the invasion.
That said, the obstacles are considerable: a deal would require the US to lift sanctions against Russia, Russia to agree to resume sales it cut off during the war, and Germany to allow the gas to flow to any potential buyers in Europe.
“The US would say, ‘Well, now Russia will be dependable because trustworthy Americans are in the middle of it’,’” said a former senior US official, who was aware of some of the dealmaking efforts. The US investors would collect “money for nothing”, he added.
The talks come as the Trump administration races to seal a peace deal through bilateral discussions with Russia that have excluded Europe and Ukraine, spooking deep-state apparatchiks in European capitals who fear a US détente with Moscow could threaten the continent. Trump has promised deeper economic co-operation with Russia if a peace agreement can be reached.
Putin has talked up the economic benefits he says the US could reap with the Kremlin in the event of a settlement in Ukraine, claiming that “several companies” were already in touch over potential deals.
Nord Stream 2 AG, the pipeline’s Swiss-based parent company, received an exceptional stay on bankruptcy proceedings in January by at least four months.
According to a redacted court document, Nord Stream 2’s shareholder — Gazprom — argued that the new Trump administration, as well as the German election in February 2025, “presumably can have significant consequences on the circumstances of Nord Stream 2” to warrant a delay. The submission pointed to “complex geopolitical affairs” and the sanctions regime.
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Warnig told the Financial Times he was “not involved in any discussions with any American politicians or business representatives”, adding that he was “following in this respect the rules [as a] US-sanctioned person”. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said he had no information on any talks regarding the pipeline.
Warnig, 69, has said he became a close friend of Putin’s in the 1990s after setting up an office for lender Dresdner Bank in St Petersburg, where the then-unknown Putin headed the city’s foreign relations committee. The two became so close that Putin asked Warnig to put up his daughters at the banker’s house in Rödermark when their mother was seriously injured in a car accident.
Putin, who speaks fluent German, taught Warnig’s children to ski in Davos and invited him to his father’s funeral, according to a 2023 interview with the former Stasi officer in Die Zeit.
But Warnig called Putin’s invasion an “indescribable mistake” and resigned from the boards of two Kremlin-run energy companies after the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022. He told Die Zeit that he made a personal appeal to Putin to end the invasion a few months in and said the Russian president was so isolated that “the only person who can still say something to him is me”.
Warnig left Nord Stream 2 AG, the Russian-owned company that manages the pipeline, in 2023, but told Die Zeit that Gazprom’s chief executive, Alexei Miller, had guaranteed to cover its costs in the hope of saving what remained.
Joe Biden’s US administration sanctioned Warnig and Nord Stream 2 AG in 2022. Biden officials showed little interest in a proposal to buy Nord Stream 2 last year from Stephen Lynch, an American businessman with a record of working in Russia. Other potential investors have come forward since Lynch first expressed interest. The person with direct knowledge of Gazprom’s discussions told the FT that its advanced talks were with a different US-led consortium from Lynch.
Trump was outspoken in his criticism of the pipeline during his first term as president. It has become a symbol for those who blamed Germany and Europe, by extension, for relying too much on Russian gas and helping to finance Moscow’s military machine. But some of Trump’s team now see the pipeline, which runs from Russia’s Vyborg in the Gulf of Finland to Greifswald on Germany’s Baltic coast, as a strategic asset that can be leveraged in the Ukraine peace talks, according to administration officials.
That said, the complex ownership structure of Nord Stream 2 presents serious potential obstacles for any investment. Nord Stream 2 is 100% owned by Gazprom. But five European energy companies — Shell, Uniper, OMV, Engie and Wintershall — collectively provided around half of its $11bn construction costs through loans. All five European companies have written off those debts.
The German government in 2022 pulled the plug on the licensing procedure of Nord Stream 2 and never issued the paperwork required to operate it.
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Ownership of the pipeline could in theory give US investors a leve r to control Russian gas flows to Europe, which is a key market for US liquefied natural gas exports shipped across the Atlantic in tankers.
But former senior US officials and western businessmen with experience investing in Russia said Trump and Putin’s sign-off alone would not be enough to get Nord Stream 2 up and running.
“I can’t imagine the board of any major US corporations saying, ‘Hey, let’s jump back into the Russian market’ right now, and the Russians know this too — they’ve seen these oscillations in American policy,” a former senior US official said.
“Europe still has sanctions in place, and Germany signing up for the rehabilitation of Nord Stream would cause huge rifts. Anything like that is a ways off.”
One can only wonder which three-letter agency said former senior US official worked for. Meanwhile, news of the report is - according to one of Goldman's top traders - one of the reasons why the bank expects a brutal short squeeze tomorrow, to wit:
Tomorrow will be a painful short squeeze day, as risk assets are likely to rally aggressively not only on the crypto news flow over the weekend: I see 4 positive weekend news.
Putin ally pushes deal to restart Nord Stream 2 with US backing. Short EU natural Gas still in place.
US hints that tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be lower than 25%. Probably an EM risk rally.
Germany's new gov are quickly setting up two 400bn special funds, one for defence one for infrastructure.
Bessent weekend interview focused on 1) lowering inflation via controlling 10y yields 2) Tariffs as a path dependent toll 3) Constructive on the relationship with China.
More in the https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tomorrow-will-be-painful-short-squeeze-day-goldman-top-macro-trader-warns
.
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Sun, 03/02/2025 - 23:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-ally-secret-talks-trump-admin-restart-nord-stream-2
Citi Does It Again, Mistakenly Credits Client Account With $81 Trillion Instead Of $280
Citi Does It Again, Mistakenly Credits Client Account With $81 Trillion Instead Of $280
Five years after Citi triggered the biggest fat finger of all time when it mistakenly sent $900 million to creditors engaged in a contentious battle over the debt of cosmetics group Revlon, a transaction which resulted in a brutal legal fight and a crushing plunge in its reputation, the bank has done it again.
According to the FT, Citigroup credited a client’s account with $81tn when it meant to send only $280, an error that surely hinder the bank’s attempt to persuade regulators that it has fixed long-standing operational issues.
Citi’s $81tn near miss in April was due to an input error and a back-up system with a cumbersome user interface, according to FT sources. In mid-March, four transactions totaling $280 destined for a customer’s escrow account in Brazil had been blocked by a screen that catches payments that are potential sanction violations. The payment was quickly cleared, but nonetheless remained stuck in the bank’s system and unable to be completed normally.
Citi’s technology team instructed the payments processing employee to manually input the transactions into a rarely used back-up screen. One quirk of the program was that the amount field came pre-populated with 15 zeros, which the person inputting a transaction needed to delete. Needless to say, that did not happen.
The erroneous internal transfer, which occurred last April and was first https://www.ft.com/content/9921925e-5a32-48cc-a3e3-3f77042477d2
, was missed by both a payments employee and a second official assigned to check the transaction before it was approved to be processed at the start of business the following day.
A third employee detected a problem with the bank’s account balances, catching the payment 90 minutes after it was posted. The payment was reversed several hours later, according to an internal account of the event seen by the Financial Times and two people familiar with the event.
No funds left Citi, which only disclosed the “near miss” to the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The bank said its “detective controls promptly identified the inputting error between two Citi ledger accounts and we reversed the entry” and that these mechanisms “would have also stopped any funds leaving the bank”.
It added: “While there was no impact to the bank or our client, the episode underscores our continued efforts to continue eliminating manual processes and automating controls.” Considering the bank's "manual processes" just transferred 3 times the GDP of the US to some unknown account, it is safe to say that there are absolutely no controls whatsoever.
According to the FT, a total of 10 near misses - incidents when a bank processes the wrong amount but is ultimately able to recover the funds - of $1bn or greater occurred at Citi last year. The figure was down slightly from 13 the previous year. Citi declined to comment on this broader set of events.
Near misses do not need to be reported to regulators, meaning there is no comprehensive public data on how often these incidents occur across the sector. Still, former regulators and bank risk managers said near misses of greater than $1bn were unusual across the US bank industry.
The series of near misses at Citi highlights how the Wall Street bank is struggling to repair its operational troubles nearly five years after it mistakenly sent $900mn to creditors engaged in a contentious battle over the debt of cosmetics group Revlon, and who then refused to return the bulk of the transfer. Readers may recall that it was Citi’s mistaken Revlon payout led to the ousting of then-CEO Michael Corbat, big fines and the imposition of regulatory consent orders requiring it to fix the issues. Clearly the "issues" have not been fixed.
Jane Fraser, who took over as Citi’s top executive from Corbat in 2021, has described fixing Citi’s regulatory issues as her “top priority”. Still, the group was fined $136mn last year by the OCC and Federal Reserve for failing to correct problems in risk control and data management.
Which brings up an interesting question: what would you do if you woke up on morning and found a dollar number with 15 zeros behind it? Here is one money laundering proposal from https://x.com/thesalondon/status/1895876852763541819?s=43
Wake up, see $81t in my account. Start moving fast
Load up 10 flash drives with $1b in every kind of Crypto and head straight to the airport
Give my fiancé 10 minutes to decide if she’s coming with me
We will probably see our friends and family again but I don’t know
Once in Columbia lay low a few days. Distribute flash drives in random hotel rooms. Send one back to my family with the note “I’m alive. Put this flash drive somewhere safe, don’t tell anyone about this”
Then find a coke dealer. “Let me talk to your boss for $10k. Let me talk to his boss for $20k”
“I need a new identity and European passport. Can pay any amount”
Then I fly somewhere in Europe and open a tanning salon / med spa to start laundering money. Within a year start claiming $10m of EBITDA and paying taxes.
Then start an AI company burning a ton of money
Fly to Saudi Arabia for VC funding but in the meetings I put my cards on the table
“Listen. I’ll give you $5b of crypto if you legitimately buy my AI business for $700m”
Just need one taker
Buy a gold immigration card
Move back to the states
You now have a legitimate $700m in the system and a few flash drives you can use if ever needed
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/02/2025 - 22:44
Hegseth Orders DoD Civilian Employees To Respond To 'What Did You Do Last Week?' Email - Then Torches Hillary Clinton
Hegseth Orders DoD Civilian Employees To Respond To 'What Did You Do Last Week?' Email - Then Torches Hillary Clinton
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Sunday that all civilian DoD employees need to respond to an email from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) asking them what they did last week - which Elon Musk and DOGE are now making a https://cms.zerohedge.com/political/doge-makes-5-bullets-email-weekly-task-sparking-new-turf-battle-employee-confusion
?itok=UmfGqqMd
"I am now directing each member of the department’s civilian workforce — just civilian — to provide those five bullets on what they accomplished in their specific jobs last week," Hegseth posted on X. "To reply to that email and CC their immediate supervisor."
"It’s a simple task, really, as Elon [Musk] said, as the President recognized in our first Cabinet meeting, just a pulse check — ‘Are you there out?’ — to DOD civilians," Hegseth added - noting that DoD civilian employees will soon get a second email outlining next steps "that they need to take in order to comply with this initiative."
🇺🇸🇺🇸
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1896284726677352569?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The move comes after Pentagon officials initially instructed employees to ignore the first OPM email from Feb. 22. Hegseth said the 'hold off' notice was only temporary so that the DoD could conduct "a review of Pentagon procedures and consultation with the Office of Personal Management."
According to Hegseth, the Dod "needed to be careful" due to the sensitive nature of Pentagon work.
Meanwhile, Hegseth took time out of his day to torch former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on X, after Clinton suggested he was kowtowing to Russia based on an anonymous report amplified by Gizmodo.
— Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) https://twitter.com/PeteHegseth/status/1896284324615602222?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Are you not entertained?
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Sun, 03/02/2025 - 22:30
With US Back Turned On Ukraine, Rubio Expedites Delivery Of $4BN In Military Aid To Israel
With US Back Turned On Ukraine, Rubio Expedites Delivery Of $4BN In Military Aid To Israel
Zelensky got his dressing down on Friday for basically never being satisfied even after the billions in US taxpayer dollars poured into Kiev's coffers over several years. He was accused by President Trump and VP J.D. Vance of being ungrateful and rude in the Oval Office meeting.
As for the other country which routinely receives billion in US defense funds and foreign aid... should we expect Netanyahu to receive the same treatment? Will he be told off? No, it's very unlikely, especially considering the new massive military package which is now being expedited by the Trump administration to Israel announced just this weekend.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio https://www.voanews.com/a/rubio-expedites-delivery-of-4-billion-in-military-aid-to-israel-/7994060.html
on Saturday that he has signed a declaration to expedite delivery of some $4 billion in military assistance to Israel.
?itok=GMbB2PMK
Rubio added that the Trump administration "will continue to use all available tools to fulfill America’s long-standing commitment to Israel’s security, including means to counter security threats."
"Rubio said he had used emergency authority to expedite the delivery of military assistance to Israel, which is now in a fragile ceasefire with U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hamas in their war in Gaza," Reuters writes.
Almost $12 billion in major foreign military sales has already been approved by the Trump administration since January 20, even as the White House has hailed the fragile Hamas truce and hostage handover as happening because of Trump taking office.
While Americans have by and large turned on Zelensky, and have grown weary of the persisting Russia-Ukraine war, support for Israel among the US public remains high - and so Trump is unlikely to come under fire from his base for this massive support to Israel.
Evangelicals, which account for a huge segment of Trump voters, are especially big supporters of Israel - and form the basis of "Christian Zionism". Along with the Israel lobby, such as AIPAC, these form a powerful coalition of influence on Capitol Hill.
The Trump administration has fiercely criticized the prior Biden admin for its 'blank check' approach to Ukraine, but the exact same can be said of long-running US policy with Israel.
What "emergency" is happening at the moment that requires "expediting" $4 billion in military subsidies to Israel? Isn't there supposed to be a solid, enduring ceasefire underway...? https://t.co/ig7k9HSrb2
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1896211381894140031?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
If heavy fighting resumes in the Gaza Strip, and the ceasefire collapses, the issue might be raised among some Congressional ranks and come under a little scrutiny - but by and large the entire US government is filled with pro-Israel hawks on both sides of the aisle.
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Sun, 03/02/2025 - 14:15