Trump Retaliates Against Ontario's "Electricity" Tariff, Threatens To "Permanently Shutdown" Canadian Carmakers, Pushes 51st State Idea
Trump Retaliates Against Ontario's "Electricity" Tariff, Threatens To "Permanently Shutdown" Canadian Carmakers, Pushes 51st State Idea
Just when you thought it was safe to dip your toe back in the growth-challenged markets, President Trump took to https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114144180393726960
and unleashed a retaliatory strike against Canada (more specifcally Ontario) for its ongoing tariffs (and electricity price hike)... (emphasis ours)
Based on Ontario, Canada, placing a 25% Tariff on “Electricity” coming into the United States, I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.
This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12th.
Also, Canada must immediately drop their Anti-American Farmer Tariff of 250% to 390% on various U.S. dairy products, which has long been considered outrageous. I will shortly be declaring a National Emergency on Electricity within the threatened area. This will allow the U.S to quickly do what has to be done to alleviate this abusive threat from Canada.
If other egregious, long time Tariffs are not likewise dropped by Canada, I will substantially increase, on April 2nd, the Tariffs on Cars coming into the U.S. which will, essentially, permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada.
Those cars can easily be made in the USA!
The result is that the Canadian dollar dumped...
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And US stocks gave up some their early gains.
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It's different this time.. for now...
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Trump then diverted back to his previous comments on making Canada America's 51st State:
Also, Canada pays very little for National Security, relying on the United States for military protection.
We are subsidizing Canada to the tune of more than 200 Billion Dollars a year. WHY??? This cannot continue.
The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State.
This would make all Tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.
Canadians taxes will be very substantially reduced, they will be more secure, militarily and otherwise, than ever before, there would no longer be a Northern Border problem, and the greatest and most powerful nation in the World will be bigger, better and stronger than ever — And Canada will be a big part of that.
The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the World — And your brilliant anthem, “O Canada,” will continue to play, but now representing a GREAT and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation that the World has ever seen!
We are sure Mr Carney will bristle with Trump's hurtful words.
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Tue, 03/11/2025 - 14:15
US 'Immediately Lifts' Pause On Intel & Military Aid To Ukraine As 30-Day Truce Plan Agreed Upon
US 'Immediately Lifts' Pause On Intel & Military Aid To Ukraine As 30-Day Truce Plan Agreed Upon
An apparent breakthrough in Jedda talks between the US and Ukraine, as the United States has announced it "will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine."
The Zelensky government has also "expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation," the statement said.
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"The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace," it added. This comes after a reported over eight hour-long meeting between the US and Ukrainian delegations in the Saudi port city on Tuesday. No doubt, the Ukrainians came hat in hand, ready to please Trump after relations had fallen off a cliff with the Zelensky Oval Office confrontation earlier this month.
Shortly before the announced US-Ukraine agreement for a 30-day ceasefire, a TASS headline said that the Kremlin has no information on any details coming out of the Jeddah meeting.
But will Putin agree? There's as yet little incentive for him to enact a temporary ceasefire, given as Trump recently admitted... he has all the cards (and Zelensky doesn't).
By all accounts the Russians are fast taking back territory in Kursk and advancing along front lines in the Donbas. Likely Russia fears that Kiev could simply use this ceasefire as an opportunity to rearm, rest, resupply and regroup - especially given Washington just said the US arms and intel pipeline is back on.
Moscow is likely to see this is simply a matter between Washington and Kiev, and it appears to be a version of Zelensky's 'partial ceasefire' which demands a halt to all air assaults. Or in essence it sounds like Zelensky just wants his satellite images turned back on.
Ukraine's presidential office presenting this as the joint statement following the talks led by Rubio, Waltz, and Witkoff:
"The United States will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine."
"Both countries’ presidents agreed to conclude as soon as possible a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy, offset the cost of American assistance, and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security."
The full statement:
?itok=rFJOYsGI
From Russia's point of view, there's nothing about turning back on the weapons and intel assistance which will help anything, given also just last night Ukraine launched its https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/largest-ever-ukrainian-drone-attack-moscow-kills-three-civilians-injures-9
in Russian territory to date, targeting the capital of Moscow.
developing...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tcitizen
Tue, 03/11/2025 - 14:15
Futures Rebound From Worst Plunge Of 2025 As Trump Meet CEOs
Futures Rebound From Worst Plunge Of 2025 As Trump Meet CEOs
US equity futures are higher, rebounding from the biggest selloff since last September (and since 2022 for the Nasdaq) with both tech and small caps outperforming as Trump is set to meet with top business executives later in the day, and many speculate that he will address the recent stock market plunge (the mere confirmation should sends stocks higher according to Goldman's Delta One team). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% after plunging 4% on Monday, with all Mag7 names (ex AAPL) higher premarket with Semis, Financials, and Int’l Equity ADRs also poised to outperform. The JPM Trading Desk says it likes participating in this bounce higher but warns that it may be short-lived unless trade policy is crystallized (well, duh). Delta’s earnings (and now American's this morning) calling out uncertainty for hitting guidance may increase expectations for Trump to establish the "Trump Put" in Equity markets. Trump may also visit China in April, according to https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3301827/despite-escalating-trade-war-trump-may-meet-xi-china-soon-april-insiders-say
, potentially to do a trade deal as a second summit in the US in June is also in discussion. Bond yields are higher as the yield curve twists flatter and the USE slides again, helping US stock futures in their attempt to rebound after Monday’s slump. Commodity prices are strong across all 3 complexes with precious metals the standout, as gold storms back over $2900. Today’s macro data focus is on JOLTS data and Small Business Optimism which slumped to 100.7 from 102.8, the lowest since Trump won the election (future hiring plans are a leading indicator for NFP).
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In premarket trading, Delta Air Lines shares tumbled 11% after the airline cut its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the first quarter, sending shock waves across the sector (United Airlines -8.0%, American Airlines -6.5%). Tesla is leading premarket gains among the Magnificent Seven stocks, with the EV maker set to rebound after a 15% rout on Monday. The slide came as investors dumped last year’s biggest winners amid growing fears that the economy is headed for a recession (Tesla +3.2%, Nvidia +0.84%, Meta +0.8%, Amazon +0.5%, Alphabet +0.3%, Microsoft -0.1%, Apple -0.3%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Asana shares slump 27% after the work management platform provider announced Dustin Moskovitz would retire as chief executive officer. Additionally, the company issued first-quarter revenue guidance that failed to meet consensus expectations.
Oracle shares fall 2.9% after the software company reported third-quarter results that missed the average analyst estimates. Morgan Stanley says there are questions surrounding the durability of its training business and rising margin impacts.
2Seventy Bio shares surge 76% after Bristol Myers Squibb agreed to buy the biotech company for $5.00 per share in cash.
Net Power shares extended losses, falling 36% to new record lows as investors continued to sell the clean energy technology company after it announced higher than anticipated costs for its Project Permian project.
Redwire shares plunge 17% after the space infrastructure company reported revenue for the fourth quarter that trailed Wall Street’s expectations.
The latest company results hinted at slowing profits earnings. Delta Air Lines shares tumbled as much as 11% in US premarket trading after a a deep cut to profit expectations. The news hit peers United Airlines Holdings Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc., and also weighed on European airlines. Sofware firm Oracle Corp. slipped after its results missed estimates.
The selloff in US stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has been accompanied by shift in investor perception on Europe and China, especially after Germany’s pledge to embark on large-scale defense spending. “The news flow from the US economy is likely to undershoot the rest of the world in coming months,” Citigroup strategists wrote. They downgraded their view on US stocks to neutral from overweight, ditching a position they had held since October 2023. Earlier, HSBC strategists also cut their view on US stocks, raising their European equity rating instead.
Meanwhile, Trump’s meeting with the Washington-based Business Roundtable will include CEOs from around the country, including the bosses of Wall Street lenders, Bloomberg reported. Given the increasingly uncertain outlook for the US economy and trade war concerns, investors will watch for any signals from Trump on the likelihood of tariff-policy shifts or support for equity markets.
“What is being questioned in the market is US exceptionalism,” said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at Wisdom Tree UK Ltd. “When Trump came back into the White House, the focus on was on the positive impact of his policies, but now the market is really drilling down into the negatives.”
European stocks retreated for a fourth straight session as worries about a faltering US economy fueled a global selloff, with the region’s travel and airline stocks sliding after US airline Delta cut its 1Q profit expectations. Travel and health care underperformed, pulling the Stoxx 600 down by about 0.2%. The DAX outperformed regional peers, adding 0.6%, after Bloomberg reported that Germany’s Greens are ready to negotiate and are hoping for an agreement by the end of this week in a dispute over defense spending. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Redcare Pharmacy shares surge as much as 18%, the most since May 2022, after the online pharmacy provided a 2025 outlook that pleased analysts, with peer DocMorris rising as much as 8.4%
Volkswagen shares rise as much as 3.7% to their highest intraday value in nine months. The German carmaker’s full-year results are called strong by JPMorgan, highlighting working capital
Rotork shares rise as much as 6.9% after reporting 2024 results that beat expectations, with signs of improved momentum in the latter-half of the period leaving the actuators manufacturer in good shape
Sensirion shares advance as much as 13% as the sensor maker delivers results which analysts say represent a significant beat. JPMorgan says estimates for FY25 may increase by almost 30%
Prysmian shares rise as much as 4.2% after UBS upgrades its recommendation to buy, saying that recent declines related to a broader unwind of the AI trade has created an attractive entry point
Burberry shares rise as much as 3.9% after BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the luxury goods stock to outperform from neutral, citing the firm’s refocus on heritage products under CEO Joshua Schulman
Henkel shares fall as much as 7.6%, the most in almost three years, after the company reported 4Q results that fell short of expectations and issued a warning for negative consumer volumes in 1Q
Partners Group shares gain as much as 2.4% after the Swiss private equity company reported better-than-expected results due to higher fees. Analysts will focus on Partners Group first CMD
European travel stocks slide, tracking declines in US peers after Delta Air Lines cut its profit expectations for the first quarter on weakening travel demand
Galderma shares drop as much as 6.7% to a three-month low after shareholders sold a stake of roughly 6.3% in the Swiss skincare group at a discount to Monday’s close
PolyPeptide shares drop as much as 11%, the most since June, after the Swiss biotech reported 2024 revenue that missed estimates and gave a wide guidance range for 2025 that RBC said implies cuts
Traton falls as much as 5% as Kepler Cheuvreux cuts its recommendation on the truckmaker to reduce from hold a day after results; Kepler notes Traton the US market is recovering slower than anticipated
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also slumped, taking cues from the tech-led sell-off stateside. Nikkei 225 retreated following disappointing Household Spending and revised Q4 GDP data from Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the negativity amid light catalysts and as the NPC concludes today. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and with most sectors in the red aside from energy and some defensives, while improved consumer confidence and mixed business surveys did little to inspire a rebound.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index fell 0.3%. The haven FX rally falters, as JPY and CHF flip to be the weakest performers in G-10 FX. NOK and SEK outperform. The euro was the biggest gainer, strengthening 0.6% as German lawmakers are expected to reach an agreement over additional spending.
In rates, Treasuries drop with the 10-year yield rising 4bps to 4.24% ahead of US job openings and layoffs data. German bond yields rise across the curve, led by the 10-year. Comparable gilts are little changed. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with the 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 2.7bps to 110.4bps.
In commodites, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 1% higher to near $67. Most base metals trade in the green. Spot gold rises roughly $25 to trade near $2,914/oz. Spot silver gains 1.4% near $33. Bitcoin rebounds, climbing above $81,000.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,641.25
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 546.15
MXAP down 0.7% to 185.10
MXAPJ down 0.5% to 580.83
Nikkei down 0.6% to 36,793.11
Topix down 1.1% to 2,670.72
Hang Seng Index little changed at 23,782.14
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,379.83
Sensex little changed at 74,134.83
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 7,890.10
Kospi down 1.3% to 2,537.60
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.86%
Euro up 0.6% to $1.0897
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $69.55/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,907.92
US Dollar Index down 0.41% to 103.48
Top Overnight news
The Trump administration is prepared to enforce sanctions on Iranian oil production, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also discussed pressure on Iran with his Saudi counterpart. BBG
Washington and Beijing have begun discussions about a potential “birthday summit” in June in the U.S. between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The latest talks on a potential summit in the month when both leaders celebrate birthdays signal a willingness from both sides to inject some goodwill in the relationship amid trade tensions that have unsettled markets and businesses. WSJ
Talks between the US and China on trade and other issues are stuck at lower levels, people familiar with the matter said, with both sides talking past each other and failing to agree on the best way to proceed. While representatives from the two countries have had contact, officials in Beijing say the US hasn’t outlined detailed steps they expect from China on fentanyl in order to have the tariffs lifted. Trump’s team rejects the assertion that it hasn’t given clear demands on fentanyl. BBG
The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus backed a stopgap funding package, bolstering Speaker Mike Johnson’s attempt to pass the bill without the help of House Democrats and avert a government shutdown on March 15. BBG
Musk says DOGE is embedded in nearly every gov’t agency, and he wants to double headcount at the group as he ramps cost cutting initiatives throughout the federal government. NBC
Oracle shares fell premarket after reporting lackluster results and a profit forecast that missed. BBG
Airlines cutting guides… DAL -11% in pre-market.. Lowered 1Q guidance last night .. Guided EPS to $0.30-$0.50 vs. $0.70-$1.00 prior. Worse than expected, driven by domestic -- consumer and corporate. LUV -2.75% in pre-market on light volume: Lowers Q1 RASM guide to +2-4% on capacity down ~2% vs. Prior RASM guide of +5-7%. Roughly 1 pt of decrease is due to higher-than-expected completion factor, less government travel and a greater impact from the California fires. The remainder of the decrease is primarily attributable to softness in bookings and demand trends as the macro environment has weakened.
The BOJ probably won’t raise rates until June as it looks to maintain a pace of one hike every six months, despite recent speculation of an earlier move, former official Kazuo Momma said. BBG
Ukraine launched its biggest drone attack on Moscow, targeting the Russian capital and other regions, hours before a Tuesday meeting between senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials to discuss ways to bring an end to the war after more than three years of fighting. WSJ
Tariffs/Trade
US President Trump said on Truth Social that "Despite the fact that Canada is charging the USA from 250% to 390% Tariffs on many of our farm products, Ontario just announced a 25% surcharge on “electricity,” of all things, and your not even allowed to do that. Because our Tariffs are reciprocal, we’ll just get it all back on April 2. Canada is a Tariff abuser, and always has been, but the United States is not going to be subsidizing Canada any longer. We don’t need your Cars, we don’t need your Lumber, we don’t your Energy, and very soon, you will find that out".
Japanese Trade Minister Muto said he asked that Japan be exempt from tariffs in talks with US officials and did not get any assurance from the US that Japan will be exempted from US tariffs due to come into force on Wednesday.
South Korean acting President Choi said the time for negotiating with the US has begun ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect, while he added that President Trump's America First moves are targeting South Korea and the government will respond calmly and flexibly, considering only national interests.
Taiwan is said to launch an anti-dumping probe related to certain Chinese steel products and an anti-dumping probe related to beer from China.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk
APAC stocks took their cues from the tech-led sell-off stateside after the Nasdaq suffered its worst day since 2022 amid recession fears and tariff-related concerns. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and with most sectors in the red aside from energy and some defensives, while improved consumer confidence and mixed business surveys did little to inspire a rebound. Nikkei 225 retreated following disappointing Household Spending and revised Q4 GDP data from Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the negativity amid light catalysts and as the NPC concludes today.
Top Asian News
Nissan Motor (7201 JT) CEO Uchida is set to step down.
European bourses are mixed, with price action fairly rangebound thus far. The DAX 40 (+0.7%) outperforms, as the region reacts to optimism surrounding German defence spending plans, whilst the FTSE 100 (-0.1%) is a little lower. European sectors are mixed; Real Estate is propped up by post-earning strength in Persimmon (+4.2%); Autos benefits from post-earning strength in Volkswagen (+2.5%) which reported robust FY results, but its guidance was not so optimistic. Travel & Leisure is the clear underperformer, as the sector reacts to Delta Airlines (-10% pre-market) cutting guidance, amid weak demand.
Top European News
Barclays UK February Consumer Spending rose 1.0% Y/Y (prev. +1.9%) and UK Consumers' Confidence in household finance was the highest since the series began in 2015 at 75% (prev. 70%).
Germany's Greens reportedly made their own proposal to loosen defence spending, according to Bloomberg. Thereafter, the Green party co-leader says they are hopeful of a defence deal occurring this week.
ECB's Rehn says Europe needs common solutions to boost defence, Eurosystem's forecast and indicators of core inflation suggest that it will align with the 2% target. Bank of Finland estimates US tariffs on the EU and China could reduce global output by over 0.5% this year and next. Defence investments must be increased at a time when EU countries already hold large public deficits.
Riksbank's Thedeen says there are signs of a business cycle rebound, with GDP growth exceeding expectations in the second half of last year; early-year indicators remain mixed.
FX
DXY is on the backfoot and trades towards the bottom end of a 103.40-92 range, with the trough for the session marking a fresh YTD low. The downside today stems from a slight unwinding of its haven appeal seen on Monday, but more pertinently, the resurgence in the EUR (discussed below). Ahead, markets will await US JOLTS Job Openings data.
EUR is the best performing G10 currency today, with commentary via a German Green party co-leader the main driver for the upside; the politician said that they are hopeful of a defence deal occurring this week. This follows on from reporting overnight via Bloomberg, which suggested that the Greens had made their own proposal to loosen defence spending. The Single Currency topped 1.09 earlier in the session and now looks to test the 5 Nov 2024 high at 1.0936. On the policy front, ECB's Rehn said if the data indicates, the Bank would hold rates in April. Ahead, today sees a busy ECB speaker slate, including the likes of President Lagarde, VP de Guindos, Lane, Villeroy & Escriva
JPY is the marginal underperformer today, alongside its haven peers CHF amid the modest improvement in sentiment. Overnight, USD/JPY was choppy owing to relatively disappointing Japanese GDP/Household spending metrics. The pair has been fairly unfazed by the Dollar weakness, currently trading in a 146.55-147.40 range.
GBP is on a firmer footing, with upside largely a factor of the broader Dollar weakness rather than UK-specific newsflow. Overnight saw a downtick in Y/Y BRC retail sales and a Y/Y slowdown in the Barclays UK February Consumer Spending report. However, these prints had no follow-through into the pound. As it stands Cable sits at the top end of a 1.2873-1.2941 range.
Antipodeans are both a little firmer, but to a lesser extent than the EUR and GBP, after marginal underperformance overnight.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1741 vs exp. 7.2597 (Prev. 7.1733).
Fixed Income
USTs are essentially flat, but do hold a downward bias, as sentiment continues to incrementally improve in today's session, and in tandem with the pressure seen in Bunds (see below). Focus for traders today will be on US JOLTS Job Openings, remarks from US White House Press Secretary Leavitt and then President Trump thereafter. But before those remarks, a 3yr auction; as a reminder, the prior outing was strong, which stopped through the when issued by 1.3bps. USTs currently trading towards the lower end of a 111-11 to 111-25 range. If the pullback continues then USTs have a little bit of clean air until the 111-00 mark.
Bunds are pressured today and the underperformer amongst peers. Downside stems from comments via Germany's Green party co-leader who said they are hopeful of a defence deal occurring this week. This followed on from reporting overnight which that the Greens had made their own proposal to loosen defence spending. Bunds have been holding a bearish bias throughout the European session thus far, and currently at the day's trough at 127.04, just ahead of the 127.00 mark. Ahead, a 2027 Schatz tap and a slew of ECB speakers.
Gilts are modestly lower, but to a much lesser extent than Bunds. UK-specific newsflow remains light, and will likely to remain-so up until the region's GDP figures on Friday; more broadly however, PM Starmer held a cabinet meeting early doors which Politico reports is set to be focussed on the domestic agenda. This aside, European defence officials are due to meet in France today. Gilts currently in a 92.07-92.46 range, which marks a marginal new WTD low.
Guidance for the UK's 1.875% 2049 I/L Gilt benchmark reportedly +1.0 to +1.5bps, via Bloomberg citing sources. Orders for the UK 2049 I/L syndication are in excess of GBP 56bln, via Reuters citing a bookrunner; guidance +1.0 to +1.5bps.
Commodities
Crude is on a firmer footing, after clambering off overnight lows which saw the complex modestly subdued. Upside today may stem from the a) weaker Dollar b) improvement in risk-tone (US indices look to open higher). Energy specific newsflow has been light this morning; more focus will be on Monday's remarks from US Energy Secretary Wright who said he is looking at working with Congress on cancelling mandated sales from oil reserve. Brent'May currently trades at the top end of a USD 68.63-69.72/bbl range. Energy traders will await the EIA STEO and then Private Inventory data thereafter.
Spot gold is back on a firmer footing, continuing the upward bias seen in APAC trade and amidst the broader Dollar weakness. XAU tested USD 2.9k overnight, and firmly topped the figure as the European session commenced; currently trading at the upper end of a USD 2,880.40-2,910.95/oz range.
Base metals hold a positive bias, given the slight improvement in risk sentiment seen in today's session, following a mostly subdued session overnight. 3M LME Copper is currently higher by just under USD 50/t, in a USD 9,460.95-9,602/t confine.
BofA expects platinum to outperform Palladium going forward, expect a Platinum deficit and Palladium surplus for 2025. Lingering concerns over trade disputes may mean that PGMs get stranded in the US for a bit longer, potentially limiting liquidity in other markets.
US Event Calendar
06:00: Feb. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 100.7, est. 101.0, prior 102.8
10:00: Jan. JOLTS Layoffs Rate, prior 1.1%
10:00: Jan. JOLTS Layoffs Level, est. 1.81m, prior 1.77m
10:00: Jan. JOLTS Quits Rate, prior 2.0%
10:00: Jan. JOLTS Quits Level, est. 3.18m, prior 3.2m
10:00: Jan. JOLTS Job Openings Rate, est. 4.5%, prior 4.5%
10:00: Jan. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 7.6m, prior 7.6m
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 03/11/2025 - 08:21
https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/futures-rebound-worst-plunge-2025-trump-meet-ceos
Watch: Someone Thought It Was A Good Idea To Ask Kamala Harris To Speak At A Major AI Conference
Watch: Someone Thought It Was A Good Idea To Ask Kamala Harris To Speak At A Major AI Conference
Someone thought it was a good idea to invite Kamala Harris to speak at AI conference HumanX at Fontainebleau in Las Vegas over the weekend, and it was obviously a disaster.
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Harris delivered a word salad complete with Doritos on the side.
“Former Vice President Harris will share her vision for the future of AI, emphasizing the responsibility to shape this technology in a way that promotes human rights, privacy, and equal opportunity,” Business Wire suggested when Harris was announced as a speaker.
Instead she blathered on about how she is obsessed with nacho cheese Doritos.
“We did DoorDash ’cause I wanted Doritos. And the red carpet part was about to start and nobody wanted to leave to go to the grocery store,” Harris was filmed saying.
“So it was DoorDash … So I was willing to give up whatever might be the tracking of Kamala Harris’ particular fondness for nacho cheese Doritos for the sake of getting a big bag of Doritos as I watched the Oscars,” she furthered blathered, sounding completely drunk and breaking into inane cackling.
She continued, “And you can debate with me if it should be a right – I think it should. To expect that the innovation would also be weighted in terms of solving their everyday problems, which are beyond my craving for Doritos… but about whatever – and I know the work is happening – the scientific discoveries, for example to cure longstanding diseases I would love it if there was an investment in resources and solving the affordable housing issue in America.”
Kamala just tried to explain innovation and it is the dumbest thing I have ever heard: https://t.co/GPqNu60FQm
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1899172363813466615?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Ok, what?
I'm so glad she's still out there talking and reminding everyone daily how good we have it with President Trump
— Whale Psychiatrist ™️ (@k_ovfefe2) https://twitter.com/k_ovfefe2/status/1899172770392494331?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Who the hell thought she would make a good speaker on the subject of AI and innovation?
https://twitter.com/grok?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
what is she talking about? Please make it make sense
— TheMatrixUnplgd (@LiberalTears101) https://twitter.com/LiberalTears101/status/1899292390764224828?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The country really dodged a bullet here.
It doesn't get worse than this.
Actually it could've been worse. She could've been president. We dodged a bullet.
— Shawn Farash (@Shawn_Farash) https://twitter.com/Shawn_Farash/status/1899190519642599733?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Every time you hear Kamala Harris talk, you think it's not real.
Yet somehow, it's real and it is exactly has bad as it actually is.
We dodged a massive bullet in 2024.
— Matt Van Swol (@matt_vanswol) https://twitter.com/matt_vanswol/status/1899180725645054120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Tue, 03/11/2025 - 08:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/watch-someone-invited-kamala-harris-speak-major-ai-conference
US Regulator Rescinds Biden's Blocks, Says Banks Can Engage In Some Crypto Activities
US Regulator Rescinds Biden's Blocks, Says Banks Can Engage In Some Crypto Activities
A U.S. regulator said on March 7 that banks can engage in some activities related to cryptocurrencies.
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The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) https://www.occ.treas.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-16.html
in a statement that the permitted activities include keeping hold of crypto assets and maintaining reserves for stablecoins, a class of crypto that features prices tied to other assets.
The OCC https://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/charters-and-licensing/interpretations-and-actions/2025/int1183.pdf
it was rescinding a 2021 policy that set limits on when banks could hold crypto, including the requirement that banks must show they have controls in place to ensure they conduct the activity in a “safe and sound manner.”
“The OCC expects banks to have the same strong risk management controls in place to support novel bank activities as they do for traditional ones,” Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney E. Hood said in a statement.
“Today’s action will reduce the burden on banks to engage in crypto-related activities and ensure that these bank activities are treated consistently by the OCC, regardless of the underlying technology. I will continue to work diligently to ensure regulations are effective and not excessive, while maintaining a strong federal banking system.”
The OCC previously issued a series of letters outlining its stance on crypto-related services.
In July 2020, the office https://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/charters-and-licensing/interpretations-and-actions/2020/int1170.pdf
that banks could utilize technologies such as stablecoins to perform permitted functions, such as payment activities.
Later in 2021, though, the OCC https://www.occ.gov/topics/charters-and-licensing/interpretations-and-actions/2021/int1179.pdf
that banks could not engage in crypto-related activities until they notified its supervisory office that it intended to engage in the activities and had received approval from supervisors. The OCC also said that supervisors, before issuing approval, had to evaluate the bank’s systems and make sure the bank could safely engage in such activities.
That’s the position that the OCC has now reversed.
The OCC also said it was withdrawing from joint statements issued on crypto risks to banks, including a 2023 https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2023/nr-ia-2023-1a.pdf
with the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that said volatility in the crypto space meant there were key risks associated with the sector.
Crypto, including bitcoin, can serve as digital investments and payment methods. Bitcoin, with a limited supply of 21 million coins, also functions as a store of value similar to gold.
President Donald Trump has championed crypto and recently https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-signs-order-creating-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-digital-asset-stockpile-5821547
reporters that the foundation of the reserve will be the bitcoin seized from criminals.
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Mon, 03/10/2025 - 15:00
New York Advertises State Jobs To Laid-Off Federal Workers In DC
New York Advertises State Jobs To Laid-Off Federal Workers In DC
(emphasis ours),
The state of New York is looking to recruit federal employees in Washington who were recently laid off amid the Trump administration’s efforts to trim the federal workforce.
?itok=UEDTmgPh
The advertisement for New York’s recruitment drive on March 3 https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2025-03/NYS_We_Want_You_Signage.pdf
on digital signboards inside Union Station, the busy train hub in the nation’s capital. It features the Statue of Liberty striking Uncle Sam’s iconic “I Want You” pose with the caption: “DOGE said you’re fired? We say you’re hired! New York wants you!”
The message refers to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a team led by entrepreneur Elon Musk and tasked by President Donald Trump with finding ways to reduce government spending and cut excessive regulations.
Advised by DOGE, Trump in the first five weeks of his second term has shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development and taken steps toward https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/vought-halts-funding-to-consumer-protection-agency-says-not-needed-5806917
the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Trump has also floated the idea of abolishing the Department of Education altogether.
As part of the administration’s restructuring, federal employees have been offered “deferred resignations,” which provide paid leave to those who voluntarily quit government service. At least 75,000 federal workers accepted the buyouts after a federal court https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/government-buyout-program-is-proceeding-after-new-ruling-things-to-know-5809419
the initiative to continue.
The U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.444883/gov.uscourts.cand.444883.37.1.pdf
maintained by OPM, as of March 2024, some 220,000 workers with less than a year of job experience fell into this category.
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is hoping to attract these displaced federal workers to fill the vacancies in her government.
The Empire State employs about 180,000 workers but has more than 7,000 positions https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-holds-roundtable-workers-impacted-federal-layoffs-and-announces-expansion-new
, according to Hochul’s office. Some of the most in-demand positions currently open include roles for attorneys, engineers, nurses, and IT specialists.
“[The] federal government might say, ‘You’re fired’—but here in New York, we say, ‘You’re hired,’” the Democratic governor said last week in a https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ra6Kxy1OG_I
promoting the recruitment drive.
The Trump administration has dismissed New York state’s recruitment campaign as an attempt to expand an already bloated bureaucracy.
“Leave it to the failed New York state bureaucracy to stack their payrolls with more bureaucrats at the expense of the abused taxpayers of New York,” White House spokesperson Harrison Fields told The Epoch Times. “Growing the public sector is not President Trump’s definition of job creation.”
New York is the latest state to reach out to Washington’s displaced federal workers. Maryland and Virginia, home to many of the affected individuals, have also put out their own recruitment and support campaigns.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, a Democrat, https://governor.maryland.gov/news/press/pages/factsheet-in-support-of-md-federal-public-servants.aspx
on Feb. 28 that his administration is streamlining the hiring process to help displaced federal workers secure new government jobs. This initiative builds on an online job portal launched two weeks ago, designed to match former federal employees with available positions.
In Virginia, Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, has https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2025/february/name-1041600-en.html
a new job website connecting job seekers to 250,000 available positions, including opportunities at companies such as LEGO, Micron, Amazon, Capital One, Liebherr Mining Equipment, and Electro-Mechanical.
The Virginia Employment Commission is also offering job placement support. The commission’s maximum unemployment benefit is $387 per week.
Youngkin announced the initiative while expressing support for the Trump administration’s federal agency overhaul.
“I actually have extraordinary empathy for the fact that there are many workers in Virginia today—from our federal workforce—who are experiencing real concerns,” he said at a Feb. 24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hME_JAfRZH4
.
“We have a federal government that is inefficient, and we have an administration that is taking on that challenge of rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse and driving efficiency in our federal government. It needs to happen.”
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Mon, 03/10/2025 - 14:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/new-york-advertises-state-jobs-laid-federal-workers-dc
Turkey Offers Peacekeeping Troops As US-Zelensky Meeting Unfolds In Saudi Arabia
Turkey Offers Peacekeeping Troops As US-Zelensky Meeting Unfolds In Saudi Arabia
At a moment that American and Ukrainian delegations are meeting in Saudi Arabia, which includes President Zelensky's presence, Turkey has offered that it is willing to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, according to https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-ready-send-troops-ukraine-if-necessary-source-says-2025-03-06/
.
"Turkiye remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty while advocating for a peaceful resolution," a statement said. The offer is unusual given that Turkey under Erdogan has long maintained a delicate balancing act between NATO and Russian interests.
?itok=mV2E9chJ
Turkey is of course NATO's lone alliance member which straddles two continents - Europe and Asia - and extends across the entire southern shore of the Black Sea.
The report notes that any potential Turkish deployment would be contingent on international agreements and whether it meets Turkey's national interests.
While the Kremlin has welcomed Turkey's diplomatic engagement on the Ukraine war, which included for example hosting talks in the opening months of the conflict, Russia has already condemned the possibility of any NATO troops being positioned in Ukraine, even if they are dubbed 'peacekeepers'.
Turkey's troop offer has been made in the context of European officials trying to figure out how to stay the course in supporting Ukraine as the Trump administration withdraws the United States.
There is also the ultimate question of how Europe and NATO would 'defend' Europe without the US. One recent defense policy paper offers the following https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/defending-europe-without-us-first-estimates-what-needed
:
The current assumption of NATO military planners (RAND, 2024) is that in case of a Russian attack on a European NATO country, 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe would be rapidly augmented by up to 200,000 additional US troops, concentrated in US armoured units best suited for the East European battlefield.
A realistic estimate may therefore be that an increase in European capacities equivalent to the fighting capacity of 300,000 US troops is needed, with a focus on mechanized and armored forces to replace US army heavy units. This translates to roughly 50 new European brigades.
But this is precisely why President Trump is pushing a quick peace plan - the 'alternative' could be a European-wide WW3 scenario. Trump officials have said the president wants to avoid this at all costs.
Zelensky is meanwhile expected to present a ground and air ceasefire in the context of Saudi talks, but is unlikely to offer any territorial concessions at this point. Media headlines are describing that Zelensky is pushing for a partial truce with Russia. The White House is at the same time urging that new elections be held in war-ravaged Ukraine.
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Mon, 03/10/2025 - 14:00
Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' To Raise Up To $21B To Buy More Bitcoin
Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' To Raise Up To $21B To Buy More Bitcoin
https://cointelegraph.com/news/michael-saylor-strategy-raise-21-billion-purchase-bitcoin
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public corporate Bitcoin holder, is looking to raise up to $21 billion in fresh capital to purchase more BTC.
?itok=U5ay6Atd
On March 10, Strategy officially https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-21-billio
) acquisitions.
As part of the agreement deal, dubbed the “ATM Program,” Strategy expects to make sales “in a disciplined manner over an extended period,” taking into account the trading price and volumes of the perpetual strike preferred stock at the time of sale.
“Strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the ATM Program for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin and for working capital,” the firm said in the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
The announcement comes amid https://cointelegraph.com/news/strategy-bitcoin-stash-up-7-billion-500k-btc-holdings
($41.2 billion), which it acquired for an aggregate amount of $33.1 billion at an average price of $66,423 per BTC.
The company previously disclosed plans to issue and sell shares of its class A common stock tohttps://cointelegraph.com/news/microstrategy-42b-capital-bitcoin-purchase-michael-saylor
and $21 billion in fixed-income securities over the next three years in order to accumulate more Bitcoin under its “21/21 plan.”
Despite suffering its lhttps://cointelegraph.com/news/biggest-red-weekly-candle-ever-5-things-bitcoin-this-week
, Strategy remained ahead on its BTC purchases.
In total, Strategy has spent $33.1 billion on Bitcoin purchases, while its holdings are now valued at $41.2 billion - a 24% unrealized gain even amid the correction.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor has proposed that the United States government acquire up to 25% of Bitcoin’s total supply over the next decade for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
“Acquire 5-25% of the Bitcoin network in trust for the nation through consistent, programmatic daily purchases between 2025 and 2035, when 99% of all BTC will have been issued,” Saylor https://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategy
in a document titled “A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economy.”
Saylor reiterates to the US government, “Never sell your Bitcoin”
Saylor presented the document to US President Donald Trump, government executives, and global crypto leaders at the https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-investors-mixed-reactions-white-house-crypto-summit
.
He explained that the government should stick to a “Never sell your Bitcoin” policy, predicting that by 2045, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could generate over $10 trillion annually and serve as a “perpetual source of prosperity” for Americans.
Up until 2045, Saylor said the Reserve could generate between $16 trillion and $81 trillion for the US Treasury, potentially easing the national debt.
?itok=gf3KLCE1
Source: https://x.com/saylor/status/1898136271131758895
Earlier that day, Trump https://cointelegraph.com/news/donald-trump-signs-executive-order-strategic-bitcoin-reserve
a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile,” initially funded with cryptocurrency seized in criminal cases.
While it didn’t include an immediate plan to buy more Bitcoin, the order stated that the Treasury and Commerce secretaries would develop “budget-neutral strategies” for acquiring more Bitcoin, ensuring no added costs for taxpayers.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/10/2025 - 09:01
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/michael-saylors-strategy-raise-21b-buy-more-bitcoin
DOGE Says It Found $312 Million In Loans That Were Given To Kids During Pandemic
DOGE Says It Found $312 Million In Loans That Were Given To Kids During Pandemic
(emphasis ours),
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) said over the weekend that it found that the Small Business Administration (SBA) allegedly granted thousands of loans worth hundreds of millions of dollars to individuals who had an age listed as 11 years old or younger.
?itok=6HDX3eHf
In a https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1898594551297700031
n social media platform X on March 8 that was reposted by Elon Musk, who leads the department, DOGE wrote that in the COVID-19 pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, the SBA granted 5,593 loans worth $312 million “to borrowers whose only listed owner was 11 years old or younger at the time of the loan.”
“While it is possible to have business arrangements where this is legal, that is highly unlikely for these 5,593 loans, as they all also used an SSN with the incorrect name,” the post added, referring to a Social Security number.
It said that DOGE and the SBA are now working to investigate the matter. The Epoch Times contacted the SBA for comment Sunday.
At around the same time on Saturday, DOGE wrote in a post that it found that the SBA issued 3,095 loans for $333 million to borrowers whose age was listed at over 115 years old. Those borrowers, it https://x.com/DOGE/status/1897039724822315489
, were listed as alive in the Social Security database, and in one instance, a 157-year-old individual received loans worth $36,000, including Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loan loans.
Also Saturday, DOGE said a U.S. Department of Agriculture contract worth $10.3 million that was started for “identifying unnecessary contracts” had been canceled, noting that it was one of 162 nonessential contracts that had been terminated.
Since the start of the second Trump administration, DOGE has been combing through federal agency data to find waste that it can slash in a bid to save money. However, the organization isn’t without its critics and has faced a bevy of lawsuits, including ones questioning DOGE’s legality and the role Musk is playing.
Late on March 7, a group of labor unions asked a federal court for an emergency order to stop DOGE from accessing the Social Security data of millions of Americans.
The motion for emergency relief was was in federal court in Maryland by the legal services group Democracy Forward against the Social Security Administration and its acting commissioner, Leland Dudek. The unions want the court to block DOGE’s access to the vast troves of personal data held by the agency.
Judges have raised questions in several cases about DOGE’s sweeping cost-cutting efforts, conducted with little public information about its staffing and operations. But judges have not always agreed that the risks are imminent enough to block DOGE from government systems.
DOGE has accessed government databases, including at the Treasury and Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The Trump administration has said generally that the efforts are aimed at eliminating waste and fraud in government.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Mon, 03/10/2025 - 08:40
Futures Slide As Recession Fears Mount, Trump Warns Of Looming "Disruption"
Futures Slide As Recession Fears Mount, Trump Warns Of Looming "Disruption"
US equity futures continue their relentless grind lower, as they trade just off session lows, down more than 1% as the "Trump Dump" selloff continues amid growing concerns about the health of the US economy. As JPM notes this morning "today there is a global de-risking but let’s see if Int’l Eqys outperform on the move lower or if the US can see a relief rally"; so far the answer is a resounding no with both European and Asian stocks tumbling, after Trump declined to rule out a recession due to his policies, pointing to a transition period for the economy. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 1.2% to 5,705 following the worst week for the benchmark index since September, while Nasdaq 100 futures slide 1.1% with all Mag7 stocks sharply lower to start the week: Tesla shares fell about 3% in premarket trading inching toward erasing their post-election gains, and most other Big Tech names also dropped, including AI bellwether Nvidia. European stocks slipped 0.4%. Treasuries are down 4-6bps amid rising recession fears, while the USD continues its post-Trump slump. In commodities, Ags and Energy are higher green while precious and base metals slide after China’s recent data confirmed deflation has returned to the second largest economy. Today’s macro data focus is on NY Fed’s 1-Year Inflation Expectations.
?itok=gxuqF4QU" alt=""/>In premarket trading, Tesla leads losses among the Magnificent Seven stocks as the broader market selloff intensifies amid concerns of slowing economic growth (GOOGL -1%, AMZN -1.2%, AAPL -1.4%, MSFT -1%, META -1.4%, NVDA -1.8% and TSLA -2.6%). Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fall as Bitcoin extends losses for a fifth consecutive session after President Donald Trump’s long-awaited order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve disappointed the market and weighed on digital currencies (MicroStrategy (MSTR) -5%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) -4%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) rises 12% after the drug developer gave initial data from an early trial of its investigative therapy for a genetic disease that can cause lung and liver damage.
Checkpoint Therapeutics (CKPT) soars 67% after the immunotherapy and targeted oncology company agreed to be acquired by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries.
Coinbase (COIN) drops 6% after the cryptocurrency exchange operator was left out of a reshuffling of the S&P 500 Index on Friday.
DoorDash (DASH) climbs 3% as the S&P Dow Jones Indices is adding the the food-delivery company to the S&P 500 index.
Other S&P 500 inductees gain: Williams-Sonoma (WSM) +0.8%, Expand Energy (EXE) +2%
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) slumps 8%, extending last week’s selloff after it ended a lunar mission early following a flawed landing, the second setback for the company following a similar problem last year.
Mineralys (MLYS) soars 45% after the drug developer said two trials of its experimental hypertension medicine, lorundrostat, met their main goals.
Redfin Corp. (RDFN) soars 85% after Rocket Cos. agreed to buy the company in a deal that values the real estate listing site at $1.75 billion. Rocket (RKT) slips 9%.
Robinhood (HOOD) falls 5% after agreeing to pay $26 million to settle allegations by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority that it failed to respond to red flags about potential misconduct and didn’t verify the identities of thousands of customers.
Samsara (IOT) gains 2% after Piper Sandler and BMO upgraded the software company to buy-equivalent ratings in the wake of a stock selloff driven by a lackluster fourth-quarter earnings report.
Mounting unease over the potential fallout from trade tariffs and sweeping government job cuts sent 10-year Treasury yields five basis points lower. The key borrowing rate has dropped more than 20 basis points in the past month, signaling risks that the world’s biggest economy will stall. Bloomberg’s dollar index held just shy of four-month lows. Tariffs and Trump’s policies have started having their “fair share of pressures on the equity markets, plus we have now started seeing a lot of concerns around US growth,” Sanford C. Bernstein strategist Rupal Agarwal said on Bloomberg TV.
Trump said at the weekend the US economy faces “a period of transition,” and there could be disruption in the near-term, suggesting that stocks could extend their slide in the near-term. “There could be a little disruption. You can't really watch the stock market. If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective… we go by quarters. What we’re doing is building a foundation for the future” Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Sunday. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier warned of disruption to growth. Bessent also ruled out policy shifts to prop up the stock market, the so-called “Trump Put.”
Meanwhile, more analysts are warning of a hit to corporate earnings from tariffs and fiscal spending cuts. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said the S&P 500 could slide 5% in the first half of the year, though he expects a recovery by year-end. JPMorgan analysts also said they are turning cautious on risk assets.
A higher open for European stocks didn’t last for long as shares quickly turned negative and the Stoxx 600 is now down 0.6%, with banks, construction and technology shares underperforming. Verallia, Ryanair and energy stocks were among the biggest outperformers, while Traton, Norma and Air France-KLM fall. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
Verallia shares rise as much as 4.5% after Brazil’s billionaire Moreira Salles family said it will make a voluntary tender offer for shares it doesn’t already own in the French glass-bottle maker
Ryanair shares jump as much as 6.7%, the most since November 2023, after the airline group said non-EU nationals are allowed to purchase ordinary shares
European energy stocks outperform Monday after US natural gas futures advanced to the highest level since 2022 on signs the nation could face storage levels below the five-year average this summer
Watches of Switzerland rises as much as 7.8%, rebounding after ending last week at its lowest level since November, as the luxury watch retailer said it has started a £25 million share buyback
Assura shares rise as much as 14% to 46.64p after a group comprising KKR and Stonepeak Partners made an indicative, non-binding cash proposal of 49.4p per share for the UK health-care landlord
Traton shares drop as much as 7.9% after the German truckmaker’s margin guidance for 2025 missed expectations and after the company said it is too early to declare a European turnaround
Norma shares drop as much as 7%, to the lowest since December, after analysts said the component maker’s guidance, released on Friday, was well below expectations
Air France-KLM shares slip as much as 3.1% after Bernstein cuts its rating on the airline group to market-perform. Analysts note that the carrier’s unit costs are set to keep rising in 2025
Clarkson shares slide as much as 20%, their worst one-day loss in seven months, after the shipbroker gave a cautious outlook for 2025 citing uncertainty due to regional conflicts and trade tensions
Earlier, Asian equities fell, led by declines in Hong Kong, as consumer inflation fell below zero for the first time in 13 months, compounding the dour outlook for the world’s second-biggest economy. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.9%, extending Friday’s losses, which pared the gauge’s best week since September. Tencent, Alibaba and Meituan were among the biggest drags Monday. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks dropped more than 2%, while shares gained in South Korea and Australia. China’s consumer inflation dropped below zero for the first time in 13 months and missed expectations. While the data were skewed by an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday, the reading unsettled the market after last week’s optimism over Beijing’s efforts to support domestic consumption.
?itok=g-7XH9ZH" alt=""/>“The market is still concerned over the dis-inflation pressure of China, which may be one of the excuses for equity indexes to see near-term corrections,” said Jason Chan, a senior investment strategist at Bank of East Asia. “In the medium run, I think inflation data will improve amid fiscal stimulus and recovery in the property market.”
The risk-averse mood can be seen elsewhere as havens outperform. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index hovered near to a four-month low, while Treasury yields slipped 5-7bps across the curve, as concerns around the US growth outlook mounted. Noway’s krone led Group-of-10 gains climbing over 1% against the dollar; Norwegian inflation accelerated more than expected last month, throwing in doubt Norges Bank’s long-awaited first interest-rate cut
USD/JPY fell as much as 0.7% to 146.99, after Japanese workers saw their base pay rise at the fastest clip in 32 years
USD/CAD steadied around 1.4375, after Mark Carney won the race to become Canada’s next prime minister
In rates, Treasuries lead gains in the bond market, with US 10-year yields dropping ~8 bps to 4.23% as spreading concern about a US growth slowdown fuels a flight-to-quality bid, weighing on equity index futures. A heavy corporate bond slate has been predicted for this week, with as many as 15 offerings viewed as possible for Monday. This week’s Treasury supply kicks off Tuesday and includes 3-, 10- and 30-year notes and bonds. US yields are 5bp-7bp richer across maturities led by intermediates, steepening 5s30s curve by around 2bp; 10-year near 4.24%, richer by 6bp, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 3bp and 5bp. In Japan, 40Y JGB yields rose to the highest on record.
In commodities, oil prices edge higher, with WTI rising 0.3% to $67.20 a barrel. Spot gold falls $5 to around $2,905/oz. Bitcoin falls 1% to near $82,000, having pared an earlier drop to near $80,000.
Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes February New York Fed 1-year inflations expectations at 11am New York time. Ahead this week are JOLTS job openings, CPI, PPI and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed officials are inn external communications blackout ahead of March 19 policy announcement.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 5,724.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 552.92
MXAP down 0.7% to 186.71
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 585.22
Nikkei up 0.4% to 37,028.27
Topix down 0.3% to 2,700.76
Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 23,783.49
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,366.16
Sensex little changed at 74,387.84
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,962.30
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,570.39
German 10Y yield down 2.7 bps at 2.82%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0821
Brent Futures little changed at $70.34/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,902.71
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.92
Top Overnight News
Ahead of the Friday deadline for a funding bill to pass to avoid a US shutdown, "It doesn’t feel like a shutdown is going to happen, although there’s still a chance because, well, this is Congress" - Punchbowl
House Republicans announced a spending bill to avert a government shutdown, daring Democrats to vote against it. Trump called on Republicans to pass the bill, warning them to allow “no dissent” in their ranks. BBG
Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) suggested that economic research shows uncertainty is a source of demand restraint and noted there are plenty of signs that the economy is solid but the market is giving mixed signals which is the reason monetary policy should be careful and deliberate, while she added that the Fed has rates in a good place.
Trump said he will pick the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Bank Supervision fairly soon It was also reported that Trump declined to predict whether the US could face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions on Mexico, Canada and China over fentanyl, while he said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go up, according to Reuters citing an interview with Fox News.
Mark Carney will lead Canada’s Liberal Party and become the country’s next PM as Donald Trump’s trade policies fuel uncertainty. The former central bank chief vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs until “Americans show us respect” and to make the nation an energy superpower. BBG
AAPL (Apple) suffered another AI setback when the company confirmed it wouldn’t be releasing an enhanced version of Siri for the foreseeable future. BBG
A new ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is possible within weeks, a US envoy told CNN. Israel halted its supply of electricity to Gaza. BBG
China’s CPI turned negative for the first time in 13 months, falling 0.7% in February from a year earlier. The core measure, which also slid, highlights the need for policymakers to deliver stimulus quickly. BBG
China has introduced retaliatory tariffs on about $22bn of US goods, including agricultural exports, targeting President Donald Trump’s rural base in the latest escalation in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Beijing’s measures, which were announced last week in response to Trump slapping an additional 10% levy on all Chinese products, are aimed primarily at US farm goods. FT
Japan's real wages fell in January after two months of slight gains, data showed on Monday, days before the annual rounds of pay negotiations held each spring culminate at the country's major firms. Japan real cash earnings for Jan come in a bit below expectations at -1.8% (vs. the Street -1.6%). RTRS
German industrial production comes in a bit better than anticipated in Jan (+2% M/M vs. the Street +1.5%) while exports fall short (-2.5% vs. the Street +0.5%). RTRS
Ukraine will try to convince Washington to resume arms/intelligence assistance during negotiations this Tues in Saudi Arabia, w/Kyiv advocating for a partial ceasefire in the war with Russia. FT
Trade/Tariffs
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump will not ease up on fentanyl-related tariffs and that tariffs will come off if fentanyl ends, while he noted steel and aluminium tariffs take effect on Wednesday and they will revisit fentanyl and reciprocal trade issues on April 2nd.
Incoming Canadian PM Carney vowed to discover new trade partners and ensure borders, while they will keep tariffs on the US until Americans show them respect. Carney said they cannot let Trump succeed and will ensure that all proceeds from tariffs will be used to protect their workers.
Canadian Finance Minister LeBlanc said Canada is ready for an immediate review of the USMCA trade agreement and there is still room for talks on steel and aluminium tariffs.
China’s MOFCOM said it will impose tariffs on some imports from Canada in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese goods effective March 20th in which it will impose 100% tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil imports and 25% on port and seafood imports, while it will impose additional tariffs on some other Canadian goods.
South Korean Acting President Choi ordered to communicate actively with the US about tariff rates and will consult with the US about cooperation in shipbuilding and energy sectors, while they are to review non-tariff measures related to US reciprocal tariffs.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week mixed amid tariff-related concerns and as participants digested the softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data from over the weekend. ASX 200 eked mild gains with outperformance seen in energy, resources and materials but with the upside capped by weakness in defensives and the economic concerns related to Australia's largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 gradually shrugged off the initial indecisiveness and clawed back early losses to reclaim the 37,000 status as participants digested data releases including the slower-than-forecast growth in Labour Cash Earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated amid deflationary headwinds after CPI data slipped into negative territory for the first time in over a year, while tariff concerns lingered as China's retaliatory tariffs against the US's March 4th additional tariffs took effect today.
Top Asian News
Deputy to China's National People's Congress (NPC) says China's "around 5%" GDP target for 2025 is certainly challenging and by no means an easy feat, via Global Times. Tian said one of China's biggest challenges is insufficient domestic demand but believes the government's plans, such as increasing the budget deficit to support higher government spending, issuing ultra-long special treasury bonds, and improving investment efficiency will help address the issues.
China’s Housing Minister said market confidence has been enhanced and the property market shows positive changes, while they will step up lending for ‘White list’ property projects and promote the purchase of existing housing stocks. China will give more autonomy to local governments in purchasing housing stocks for affordable housing and part of China’s local government special bonds will be used for purchasing land and housing stocks.
China’s Human Resources Minister said they face an arduous task to stabilise and expand employment in 2025 and the external environment for employment could become more complex and severe but added that the employment situation is generally stable. Furthermore, China will step up resources and funding to support employment and will prepare to roll out new policies to support employment.
South Korean prosecutors decided not to appeal President Yoon’s release.
Acer (2353 TW) Feb Revenue TWD 17.07bln.
Key Japanese government panel members called for vigilance to risks of rising inflation hurting the economy.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.5%) opened modestly in the green, but quickly succumbed to selling pressure soon after, to display a negative picture in Europe. As it stands, indices currently reside at the bottom end of the day's ranges. European sectors are mixed vs initially opening with a slight positive bias; Real Estate takes the top spot, as yields move lower, whilst Tech is swept away by the risk tone. Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) says Cagrisema demonstrates superior weight loss in adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes in the Redefine 2 trial; People treated with Cagrisema achieved a superior weight loss of 15.7% after 68 weeks. Shares dip -5% on this news. Analysts at HSBC downgrade US equities to Neutral.
Top European News
Germany's Green party insider says approval of financial package becomes less likely every day, according to Handelsblatt. "Willingness to help the black-red debt package for defence and infrastructure to gain a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag is apparently declining."
Leaders of Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD said they have completed preliminary talks on forming a coalition government.
Germany's AfD has filed an urgent appeal with the Constitutional Court against the session of the outgoing Bundestag on Thursday, via Reuters citing a court spokesperson.
S&P affirmed Norway at 'AAA'; Outlook Stable.
ECB's Kazimir says inflation risks remain tilted to the upside; must remain open minded on whether we cut rates or pause. Geopolitical and trade tensions add another layer of unpredictability. Looking for undeniable confirmation that disinflation will stay; tariffs historically slow growth and boost inflation.
Germany's VDMA says Jan orders -2% Y/Y (domestic -6%, foreign unchanged); Nov-Jan orders -2% Y/Y (domestic 10%, foreign +1%).
FX
DXY has been choppy thus far, initially topping the 104.00 mark as risk sentiment waned, but is now a little lower thus far; currently trading within a 103.55-104.03 range. The Fed is now in blackout, so focus this week will be on trade developments. Most recently, US President Trump said on Friday regarding Canada that he may do reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday or Monday, while he added the EU has been a terrible abuser on tariffs and India has agreed to cut tariffs way down. Focus ahead will be on US NY Fed SCE.
EUR price action has been at the whim of a choppy Dollar; currently firmer and trading around 1.0870, in a 1.0806-1.0874 range. As mentioned above, commentary from President Trump who said the EU has been a terrible abuser on tariffs, will garner some attention. On the domestic front, Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD said they have completed preliminary talks on forming a coalition government. The EU Sentix Index printed above expectations, but had limited impact on the Single-Currency. ECB's Nagel is set to speak this afternoon.
JPY is one of the better performing G10 currencies today, largely a factor of narrowing yield differentials and as risk sentiment continues to deteriorate in European trade. Overnight, USD/JPY was relatively choppy given the uncertain risk sentiment in Tokyo in APAC trade. USD/JPY currently trading at the bottom end of the day's ranges (146.98-147.96), dipping below 147.00, with Friday's 146.93 thereafter.
GBP is softer vs. the USD and at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard after a solid showing for Cable last week which saw the pair rally from a 1.2577 opening level last Monday to a YTD peak at 1.2944. UK-specific newsflow has been light and does not pick-up until Friday.
Antipodeans are firmer today, with modest outperformance in the Kiwi but with upside capped amid downbeat sentiment and with Chinese inflation over the weekend printing below expectations.
The NOK is stronger today, after the region printed hotter-than-expected inflation data; EUR/NOK fell from 11.7463 to 11.7150 before then paring around half of the move. Following the data, Nordea bank wrote that "Norges Bank need to think twice about cutting rates at all this year. The March cut is definitely off."
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1733 vs exp. 7.2355 (Prev. 7.1705).
Former Central Banker Mark Carney won the Liberal Party race to become the next Canadian PM, according to official results cited by Reuters.
Fixed Income
USTs picked up at the reopening of trade, given the pressure in US equity futures and as the benchmark acknowledged the soft Chinese inflation data on the weekend. The risk-off tone has intensified further with USTs outperforming and at a 111-03 peak, resistance at 111-11+ and 111-15 from last week. Market focus is firmly on tariffs/trade with new measures set to come into play on metals on Wednesday and the prospect of reciprocal tariffs being implemented imminently. Furthermore, President Trump’s sights seem to have turned back to the EU, with him labelling the bloc as a terrible abuser. Finally, focus is also on fiscal matters as the Friday deadline to pass a funding bill to avoid a federal shutdown fast approaches. The House Republicans released their CR on the weekend and following this Punchbowl writes that it does not feel as if a shutdown will occur.
Bunds opened lower following German political updates; reports indicate that coalition talks for the new Bundestag are progressing well. Elsewhere, for the bloc more broadly, EU Commission President von der Leyen said that “nothing” is off the table for security, including defence eurobonds. All of the above weighed on Bunds to a 127.21 low overnight, just above Friday’s 127.18 base and the contract low from last week at 126.64 below. However, fixed benchmarks generally have been lifting off worst through the European morning as the risk tone deteriorates. On incoming Chancellor Merz's spending plans, recent reporting via Handelsblatt has suggested that the approval of financial package becomes less likely every day, citing a Green party inside. Furthermore, Germany's AfD has filed an urgent appeal with the Constitutional Court against the session of the outgoing Bundestag on Thursday.
Gilts are trading in tandem with the above as the risk tone soured throughout the European morning. Gapped higher by 22 ticks at the open and has since risen almost the same amount again to a 92.49 peak. A high which surpasses the 92.41 top from last Wednesday but has stopped just shy of Friday’s 92.63 best
Commodities
Crude is incrementally firmer, in what has been a choppy but fairly lacklustre European morning for the complex thus far, but also in a continuation of the price action seen overnight. In early European trade, oil prices picked up a touch, but gains were soon capped as sentiment waned in Europe. Brent'May sits in a USD 69.84-70.57/bbl range. On the geopolitical front, new Russia/US talks are reportedly not scheduled for this week, according to TASS. And in the Middle East, Al Jazeera reported that Smotrich said that "in light of the lack of progress in negotiations, we will return to fighting in Gaza".
Spot gold is a little firmer, with a slight bounce in recent trade as the Dollar comes off best levels. Currently trading in a USD 2,896.83-2,918.32/oz range.
Base metals are mostly lower, given the weak Chinese inflation data and flimsy risk tone. 3M LME Copper currently trading in USD 9,510.35-9,640.6/t range vs the prior close at USD 9,584.63.
Iraq set the April Basrah medium crude official selling price to Asia at plus USD 2.15/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and the OSP to Europe at minus USD 1.50/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 0.65/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
US is in exploratory talks with Congo about a potential minerals deal, according to FT.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Hamas says it dealt with mediator efforts with flexibility, now awaiting the result of talks with Israel. Talks focussed on ending the war, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and reconstruction.
"Israel Broadcasting Corporation on Smotrich: In light of the lack of progress in negotiations, we will return to fighting in Gaza and the new chief of staff has a more effective combat plan than his predecessor", according to Al Jazeera
Israel’s Energy Minister ordered the stoppage of electricity transmission to Gaza, according to Israeli broadcaster Kan.
Hamas said there are positive indicators over negotiations for the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, while it noted its delegation met Egypt’s spy chief in Cairo to discuss the Gaza ceasefire and it urged commitment to all the Gaza ceasefire deal’s articles and the immediate start of talks for the second phase. It was separately reported that a Hamas official said the group is open to releasing American-Israeli hostage Edan Alexander as part of talks to end the Gaza war, according to Al-Aqsa TV.
US hostage envoy Boehler said meetings with Hamas leaders in recent days were very helpful and that something could come together within weeks on Gaza and hostages, while he thinks all prisoners could get out not just Americans.
France, Germany, Italy and Britain said they welcome the Arab plan for Gaza reconstruction which they said shows a realistic path to reconstruction of Gaza and are committed to working with the Arab initiative.
US State Department has not renewed a waiver for Iraq to buy Iranian electricity and noted the decision ensures the US does not allow Iran any degree of economic relief. It was separately reported that the Iraqi PM’s Foreign Affairs advisor Alaaldin said non-renewal of US sanctions waiver for Iraq to purchase Iranian energy presents temporary operational challenges, while Iraq is committed to its strategic goal of achieving energy self-sufficiency.
Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei said Tehran will not negotiate under pressure from a bullying country and will never accept demands to curb its missile program. It was separately reported that the White House reiterated that Iran's nuclear concern can be dealt with by making a deal or militarily, while it hopes the Iranian regime puts its people and best interests ahead of terror.
Iran’s mission to the UN said talks on the potential militarisation of Iran’s nuclear program may be considered and Iran will not discuss the dismantlement of its nuclear program.
Joint naval drills between Iran, Russia and China will begin on Monday in the Chabahar region of Iran.
US and Russia ask UN Security Council to meet on Monday regarding escalating Syria violence It was separately reported that UN rights chief Volcker Turk said the killing of civilians in coastal areas in northwest Syria must cease immediately.
UK Foreign Secretary Lammy said reports that a large number of civilians have been killed in coastal areas in Syria in ongoing violence are horrific and authorities in Damascus must ensure the protection of all Syrians and set out a clear path to justice.
Syrian leader Sharaa said Syria is confronting attempts to drag it into a civil war and that remnants of the former regime have no choice but to surrender immediately, while he added that Syria will not allow any external or local forces to drag it into chaos or civil war.
Geopolitcs: Ukraine
New Russia/US talks are reportedly not scheduled for this week, according to TASS.
US President Trump said Ukraine will sign the minerals deal but needs to show more willingness for peace, while Trump also stated they are looking at a lot of things with respect to tariffs on Russia and will make a lot of progress this week, while he is expecting good results coming out of Saudi on Ukraine and stated they have just about lifted the intelligence pause on Ukraine.
Russian Defence Ministry said it has taken one village in Russia’s Kursk region and another in Ukraine’s Sumy region, while Russia also said it has taken the village of Kostyantynopil in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Furthermore, it was later reported that Russian forces recaptured three more settlements in the Kursk region.
Geopolitics: Other
North Korea's Foreign Ministry said US and South Korean military exercises are a dangerous provocative act, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that North Korea unveiled a nuclear-powered submarine under construction for the first time which appears capable of carrying 10 missiles, according to Nikkei.
US Event Calendar
11:00: Feb. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 3.00%
Central Bank Speakers
March 8-March 20: Fed’s External Communications Blackout
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
A week after playing golf in the frost with a snood, balaclava and bobble hat, it was shorts weather here in the UK over the weekend. After golf and parenting I then watched Oscar winning Anora and fell asleep bored and irritated. The third Oscar best film winner in a row I haven’t finished after the dull Oppenheimer and the unwatchable Everything Everywhere All at Once. The previous winner CODA, and Parasite, a couple of years before, were fantastic.
If this year so far was a movie then I’m sure the script would have been thrown out as being too unbelievable, even for Hollywood. I certainly haven’t fallen asleep at my desk. However, relative to the year so far, it was a relatively quiet weekend after one of the more dramatic weeks in living memory, especially in Germany, where 10yr Bunds saw their largest weekly yield sell-off since reunification in 1990. The Euro (+4.41%) saw its biggest weekly gain since March 2009 while the S&P 500 (-3.10%) saw its largest weekly fall in 6 months. As we continue to catch our breath, this week is relatively quiet for data even if I suspect it won't be for news flow. The data highlight is US CPI on Wednesday but the reality is that there are bigger fish for the market to fry at the moment than a monthly inflation report. How times are changing.
Briefly going through the rest of the week’s main highlights. Today sees the NY Fed 1-yr US inflation expectations and German IP; tomorrow sees the US JOLTS and the NFIB small business optimism; Wednesday the BoC decision (-25bps expected) and a 10yr UST auction; Thursday sees US PPI and a 30yr UST auction; and Friday sees the UoM consumer sentiment survey. The fuller day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual.
In terms of US CPI, headline (+0.27% DB forecast vs. +0.47% previously), and core (+0.26% vs. +0.45%) should ease from the previous month which would allow the YoY rate to fall a tenth and two tenths respectively to 2.9% and 3.1%. See our economists "February CPI preview & webinar registration" for full details. For US PPI the next day, we will likely see a similar +0.3% gain for headline and core but it'll be the sub components that feed into core PCE that will be the most important as usual.
Staying with US inflation, Friday's University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment (63.0 expected vs 64.7 last) reading will also contain the fascinating long-run inflation expectations series, which rose three-tenths to 3.5% last month, an almost 30-year high. We will continue to watch the split by political party as the expectations gap between Republicans and Democrats are at crazy wide levels.
Although the weekend was relatively quiet we did hear from both Bessant and Trump and they seem to be telling us that they are prepared for some pain to reorientate the economy. Bessent said, “Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit? Sure. And look, there’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending,” “The market and the economy have just become hooked. We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.” Meanwhile Trump told Fox that “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” “What I have to do is build a strong country. You can’t really watch the stock market,” “If you look at China they have a hundred-year perspective". So taken at face value these quote suggest that their pain level is higher than most would have believed a few weeks ago.
Also over the weekend the House Republicans propose a stopgap funding bill taking us to the end of September, attempting to avert a shutdown on March 15th (this Saturday). There will be a vote tomorrow with some House Republicans not that keen to vote for a stopgap that doesn’t contain permanent spending cuts. However the tougher challenge will be when the bill hits the Senate as it will require moderate Democrats to support it for it to pass. One of the issues is that the bill explicitly gives DOGE the licence to carry on what’s it’s doing which may be a struggle for Democrats to support. So one to watch.
We also saw the conservatives and Social Democrats in Germany agree to deepen talks around a coalition on Saturday. So things seem to be moving in the right direction which is helpful as in parallel Merz has two weeks to approve the legislation around the EU500bn infrastructure fund and the associated open ended defence fund. In reality this is the biggest global event over the next two weeks outside of anything the US administration might do.
In geopolitics, EU finance ministers meet today in Brussels for more talks on defence spending. On Wednesday the US is set to impose steel and aluminium tariffs of 25% on the EU. There will also be a G-7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada on Wednesday to Friday.
Over the weekend Chinese inflation fell -0.7% YoY, below the consensus -0.4% and the -0.5% last month. Core inflation fell -0.1% YoY, the first decline since 2021. PPI printed at -2.2% YoY against -2.1% expected and -2.3% the previous month. Overall there was likely some distortion due to the timing of Lunar New Year so we'll get a better read next month.
In political news, Mark Carney has been elected the new leader of Canada's Liberal party, succeeding Justin Trudeau who announced his resignation in January. This victory makes him Canada's new prime minister. Let's see how his relationship with Trump differs from his predecessor's.
Asian equity markets are slipping as I type this morning with the Nikkei (+0.38%), the Kospi (+0.18%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.18%) holding onto earlier gains but with the Hang Seng (-2.06%), CSI (-0.71%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.44%) notably weaker after the weekend deflation news. S&P 500 (-0.48%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.59%) futures are weak with 10yr USTs -2bps lower at 4.28%.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s real wages fell -1.8% y/y in January, reversing two months of slight gains, days before the annual rounds of pay negotiations held each spring culminate at the country's major firms. The decline followed a revised +0.3% rise in December and a +0.5% gain in November. Meanwhile, total cash earnings rose +2.8% y/y in January (v/s +3.0% expected), slowing from December’s downwardly revised +4.4% rise.
Looking back, it was a truly seismic week for markets last week, as investors grappled with historic fiscal news out of Germany, European rearmament proposals, fresh tariff developments, and a US jobs report on Friday. By the end of the week, that had led to a huge selloff for European sovereign bonds, including the biggest weekly jump in the 10yr bund yield since reunification in 1990, up +43.0bps over the week (+0.3bps Friday) to 2.83%. Moreover, the euro itself saw the biggest weekly gain against the US Dollar since March 2009, up +4.41% last week to $1.0833.
But even as investors were enthusiastic about the fiscal news, the tariff developments led to a broader risk-off move that hit global equity markets. In fact, the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly decline in 6 months, falling -3.10%. The index did recover by +0.55% on Friday, with a measured speech by Powell, who said “the US economy continues to be in a good place”, catalysing a turn in sentiment. In turn, the VIX retreated from Friday’s intra-day highs of 26.5 to end the week at 23.37, but this still marked a +3.74pts weekly increase and the highest weekly close since August. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 also ended its run of 10 consecutive weekly gains, falling -0.69% last week (-0.46% Friday). The main exception to these losses was the German DAX however, where the prospect of a significant fiscal impulse meant the index was up +2.03% last week (-1.75% Friday).
With all that was going on, Friday’s jobs report rather faded into the background, in part because it was basically in line with consensus. Nonfarm payrolls were up +151k (vs. +160k expected), and there weren’t substantial revisions to the previous couple of months. The unemployment rate did tick up a bit to 4.1% (vs. 4.0% expected), but the report didn’t cause alarm, with the risk-off move driven by tariff uncertainty instead.
On the rates side, US Treasury yields saw more modest increases than their European counterparts. The 10yr yield was up +9.4bps over the week (+2.4bps Friday) to 4.30%, while the 2yr yield saw only a +1.0bps rise to 4.00% (+4.0bps Friday). Otherwise, there was a significant widening in US HY spreads, which moved up +11bps to 291bps (-3bps Friday).
Mon, 03/10/2025 - 08:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-recession-fears-mount-trump-warns-looming-disruption
Germany's Green Party Rejects 'Whatever It Takes' Fiscal Folly
Germany's Green Party Rejects 'Whatever It Takes' Fiscal Folly
Whether this is posturing or principles, Germany's €500 billion spending bazooka is on the ropes this morning after Germany’s Green party rejected the draft debt-financed package, potentially leaving chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz without a supermajority needed to pass the legislation.
"We will recommend to the members of the Green parliamentary group not to agree to these changes," Katharina Droege, the party's leader in the Bundestag, told reporters.
In the new Bundestag, the far-right Alternative for Germany and anti-capitalist Left party will hold enough votes to block a two-thirds vote.
Thus Merz and the SPD had sought a vote in the outgoing parliament next week.
Green leaders blasted the incoming coalition’s decision to leave the party largely out of discussions and ignoring Green priorities such as climate action.
Bloomberg reports that Droege said the party was prepared to negotiate a “real” reform to constitutional debt restrictions, though preferably when the new lower house, or Bundestag, meets after March 25.
The euro oscillated modestly on the news, suggesting the market sees through the headline as posturing by a party in search of more climate-friendly concessions in the package...
?itok=G6EcwPg4" alt=""/>Bund yields are leaking lower (as the odds of a deal are re-rated lower - albeit marginally)...
?itok=KTVwzXE-" alt=""/>As UBS notes, this sounds very much like negotiations ahead of talks between the Greens and the CDU later in the day.
Notice it says they won't back the "draft" plan – so the talks could lead to changes in the draft. It's going to be a week of a lot of headline risk.
Mon, 03/10/2025 - 08:12
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/germanys-green-party-rejects-whatever-it-takes-fiscal-folly
Escobar: Acute Dementia - Europe Declares War On Russia All Over Again
Escobar: Acute Dementia - Europe Declares War On Russia All Over Again
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Let’s start with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Road to Damascus moment:
“Frankly, it’s a proxy war between nuclear powers, the United States helping Ukraine and Russia, and it needs to come to an end”.
Now that’s a howler. https://globalsouth.co/2025/03/06/jeffrey-sachs-understanding-the-ukraine-conflict-minidoc/
Of course, the correct formulation would be “proxy war launched by the United States”. But still: Hallelujah! Such illumination – by proxy – from Heavens Above could never had hit the previous American Secretary of Genocide.
Now cut to panic. Total European panic.
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Le Petit Roi, as popular in France as nighttime mosquitoes in a five-star beach resort, has declared that peace in Europe is only possible with a “tamed” Russia – and that Russia is a direct threat to France and Europe.
On Ukraine, he pontificated that peace simply cannot take place under Russian terms or via the – inevitable – Ukrainian surrender.
Le breathless Petit Roi literally went nuclear. He stressed that France possesses a nuclear deterrent – and offered it to the rest of Europe, while insisting that Europe’s future should not be dictated by Moscow or Washington.
Le Petit Roi napoleonically all but declared war on Russia. Well, the fact remains that the overwhelming majority of France would gladly agree that mini-Napoleon should be dispatched to the battlefields in the black soil of Novorossiya right away – where he would surrender in less than 5 minutes, waving a rainbow flag, as he realizes he’s about to be turned into an instant steak tartare.
Now couple this Moliere farce with the fate of the much larger, fatter, pan-European New Model Woke Army regimented by the Fuhrerin SS von der Lugen out of Brussels, allegedly to be financed to the tune of 800 billion euros – money that no one has, and would have to be loaned then repaid with sky-high extorsion interest rates to the usual international financial system vultures.
SS von der Lugen insists Europe is in danger, so the solution is a massive expansion of the military-industrial complex – in practice, buying more overpriced American weapons – and “rearmament”.
Talk about Gotterdammerung on crack.
Were the New Model Woke Army ever come to light, surrender would also be a matter of less than 5 minutes – brandishing rainbow flags – as its woke warriors would face the dire prospect of being Oreshniked to a pile of charcoal grilled burgers.
Add to it the Return of the Nord Stream Saga – with a new plot twist. Sy Hersh conclusively proved that the Nord Streams were bombed under orders of the previous Crash Test Dummy regime in Washington. Now Nord Stream 2, at least, could be back in business via a not-so-secret U.S.-Russia deal involving Gazprom and American oligarchs.
All that while fanatics in Berlin assure right and left they want to explore every possible way to prevent (italics mine) the Nord Stream system from being repaired – because after all no one, especially the new BlackRock chancellor, can deviate from the official policy of destroying the German economy by all means necessary.
Compounding the Kafkaesque scenario, the Prime Minister of Denmark – which is on the brink of losing Greenland “one way or another” to Trump 2.0 – immortalized the words, “peace in Ukraine will be more dangerous than war.” The Polish Prime Minister did not miss a beat, adding that “Europe is stronger than Russia and capable of winning in any military, financial, or economic confrontation.” Europe is in such a “winning” streak now – as the record shows.
All this discombobulated Tower of Babel proves, without a shadow of a doubt, that Europe is geopolitically – and geoeconomically – dead and buried. No Teutonic Gods – complete with fat lady singin’ – will be able to resurrect it.
Flirting with a one-way ticket back to the Stone Age
The notion that Europe is able to pose a military threat to Russia does not even qualify as trashy propaganda for sub-zero IQs. It would take at least a decade to re-militarize Germany as its economy is moribund, serially stabbed by unmanageable energy costs. Russia for its part is protected from a possible nuclear attack by Le Petit Roi’s puny “umbrella” arsenal by the most sophisticated missile defenses in the world.
The Aegis defensive missiles in Poland are relatively worthless – even if their prime danger to Russia remains that the system can be converted to handle offensive missiles. As a whole, the Aegis, Patriot, THAAD-PAC-3, SBIR-HIGH Ground Based Infrared Systems are all relatively useless.
Other than the U.S., NATO simply has no military worth. And Washington under Trump 2.0 simply will not be involved in the next European War.
The U.S. has satellite systems for targeting but no one else in NATO has them. With the U.S. pulling out, and in the event of a hypothetical von der Lugen-led New Woke Army attack against Russia, Russian missiles can knock out all European ports, airports and manufacturing and energy systems in a day max – instantly returning Europe to the stone age.
This applies to England, France, Germany, not to mention assorted chihuahuas: all of NATO. Russia can knock out all British power systems with Zircons launched from a conventional submarine. Stone Age, here we come. Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be intercepted.
Meanwhile, President Putin insists on talking sense to lunatics. At the Collegia of the FSB on February 27, he noted how, “some Western elites are still determined to maintain instability in the world, and these forces will try to disrupt and compromise the dialogue [with the U.S.] that has begun. We see this. We need to take this into account and use all the possibilities of diplomacy and special services to disrupt such attempts.”
As Andrei Martyanov has noted, superpowers have “only two options in the 21st century: either start WWIII which will end with nuclear exchange or find a modus vivendi.” That’s a conversation for adults that automatically excludes the European hospice and the childish tantrums of the cracked actor in Kiev.
The cracked actor never had any (italics mine) cards. He now cuts a pathetic figure, doing somersaults to cling to power, propped by (former) collective West money, weapons and massive propaganda. Now the 404 nation he “created” is losing not only the war but the P.R. war as well.
The former adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office, Oleksiy Arestovych, as slimy as they come, but always with his pulse on reliable info, is convinced that the Ukrainian Army, blind and cross-eyed, can hold out at best for another one and a half to two months without all those American goodies. Without intel data, Kiev’s forces cannot prepare strikes against the Russian federation or conduct reconnaissance and cyber ops.
Country 404 as a whole is now entering Walking Dead territory. Europe, with or without its SS von der Lugen Invincible Armada, does not have the industrial capacity, the financial might, and the military capability to stop the debacle. Russia has already stated that any European “peacekeeping” troops will immediately become legitimate targets.
The spectacular failure of Project Ukraine is a sight to behold. It’s no wonder the current, tawdry, ghastly political “elites” are in total panic. Without Project Ukraine, and without the Mafia protection of His Master’s Voice, they are just, geopolitically, an irrelevant, post-colonial small peninsula on the western borders of fast-integrating Eurasia.
As for Trump 2.0 and the Kremlin already having hit some sort of pre-deal – even before the start of serious negotiations – there’s no evidence yet to corroborate it. According to Russian intel sources, what has been struck is a general agreement on the framework of discussions, and what can be achieved in practice. This initial stage will last at least a few months.
Themes on the table range from lifting sanctions on Russian banks and the use of MIR cards to restoring direct flights and curbing the militarization of the Arctic.
Everything essentially hinges on whether Trump wants – and is able to ensure – a fast endgame in Ukraine while disengaging, slowly but surely, from NATO.
Considering what seems to be his strategic direction, Trump wants to make sure he won’t have to offer Mafia protection to European NATO members if they insist on keep going with their Forever War against Russia. It’s clear that shutting off Starlink and shutting off satellite ISR would lead to a much faster endgame in the battlefield.
The SMO, meanwhile, will keep rollin’ on. And as the Europeans want it, to the last Ukrainian.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 03/10/2025 - 02:00
Democracy Dies In Romania... After 'Winning' In December, Georgescu Now Banned From May Presidential Election
Democracy Dies In Romania... After 'Winning' In December, Georgescu Now Banned From May Presidential Election
Is Romania the canary in the 'death of democracy' coalmine?
After today's news, that canary - along with 'democracy' - is well and truly dead.
In a stunning turn of events - that we have a feeling could backfire disastrously on the elite establishment - Romania has barred far-right frontrunner Calin Georgescu from running in May’s presidential election, in a move that could worsen the country’s political turmoil.
The Bucharest-based electoral bureau invalidated Georgescu’s candidacy, a spokesman from the bureau said on Sunday.
It received more than 1,000 challenges to Georgescu’s candidacy mostly related to his so-called anti-democratic and extremist stances.
The decision can still be appealed at the Constitutional Court.
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The decision to eliminate Georgescu from the May 4 presidential race will likely deepen Romania’s anti-establishment mood and benefit the far-right.
Polls showed that had Georgescu run, he would’ve garnered between 40% and 45% of the vote in the first round, giving him a real chance of becoming Romania’s president.
Georgescu submitted his candidacy for May’s election - as an independent - reminding voters of the utter farce he has been through over the last coupel of months:
“Everyone is watching Romania and how the corrupt system acted,” said Georgescu on Friday, adding that he thought it’s impossible for his name not to be on the ballot’s list of candidates.
“They can’t afford to repeat the mistake."
Well, they did!
As a reminder, after https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/romanian-court-annuls-vote-declares-presidential-election-do-over-after-far-right-pro
of last year’s presidential vote, which cited suspicions of Russian meddling (via TikTok!?) in his campaign.
Following their decision, the Black Sea bordering nation tumbled into its biggest political crisis since the collapse of communism.
The decision has also buoyed the success of Romania’s extremist parties, in a country already disillusioned with the political mainstream, https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/huge-protests-romanians-rail-against-do-over-election-targeting-populist-nato-skeptic
🇷🇴 Close to 100,000 people on the streets of Bucharest protesting against the decision to cancel the elections and in support of Georgescu
Man tries to find the end of the protest, gives up after he keeps running into masses of people https://t.co/EEs7C2ga3P
— Daily Romania (@daily_romania) https://twitter.com/daily_romania/status/1878429301638316513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
1) Barred from appearing on mass media
2) Forbidden from creating social media accounts
A Romanian Court Press Release cites "attempted incitement against the constitutional order" (coup), "spreading false information," as well as "false statements on campaign funding," and links to "fascist, xenophobic, and antisemitic organizations."
And that prompted yet more large-scale protests.
The eu needs to be very careful with this powder keg https://t.co/AdrCmuQq22
— TheLastRefuge (@TheLastRefuge2) https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/1894786582928142735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
While Georgescu planned to run as an independent, he is backed by two far-right opposition parties. Recent polls show he’d get about 40% of the vote in the first round of the May ballot.
It remains to be seen whether Georgescu will throw his support behind any of the other candidates, such as the leader of the largest far-right opposition party AUR, George Simion, who backed him after the cancellation of the elections.
🇷🇴🚨BREAKING NEWS
The candidacy of Calin Georgescu for the presidential elections has been rejected by the Electoral Commission.
The country is in chaos.
Democracy has officially died in Romania and the European Union.
Europe has fallen.https://t.co/iCYtC2JFdn
— Radio Europe (@RadioEuropes) https://twitter.com/RadioEuropes/status/1898795211293098409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Georgescu denies any wrongdoing and continues to claim that he received no funding for his campaign last year, which he says was exclusively volunteer-run.
“The Romanian people will always win,” Georgescu said in front of his supporters at the electoral bureau in Bucharest.
“Democracy was killed in December but we are reviving it today.”
The unprecedented move to annul last year’s election result is still viewed as controversial by most Romanians and was criticized by the Trump administration.
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We suspect those criticisms will turn all the way up to 11 after today's court decision to ban him from actually being on the ballot.
None of this should be a surprise - as shocking as it is for an elite establishment who constantly crow about "democracy".
Simply put, from the perspective of western liberal world order, Georgescu cannot be allowed to win because he takes the common sense approach that confrontation with Moscow does much more harm to Romanians than to Russia.
And Romania is simply too important to NATO and the effort to weaken Russia. Washington and Brussels are already dealing with wayward governments in Hungary and Slovakia, but Romania is a different animal.
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Romania is also the site of the $2.7 billion expansion of Mihail Kogălniceanu airbase to make it the largest one in Europe.
It’s entirely possible that Romania is just the start of annulled elections as the neoliberal war champions who call themselves the “center” would no doubt love the power to cancel elections wherever they see fit.
who summarized the importance of events in Romania (and their consequences):
The Romanian “deep state’s” latest attempt to take down Georgescu is essentially a gauntlet thrown at the Trump Administration by its liberal-globalist opponents in Brussels who fully back Bucharest. They want to test whether the US will do anything in response to the EU’s rolling coup in Romania...
...
What’s unfolding in this Balkan country is nothing less than the opening of another https://korybko.substack.com/p/towards-tri-multipolarity-the-golden
front, albeit this time an ideological one between liberal-globalists and populist-nationalists, which also interestingly pits nominal NATO allies against one another as the EU and the US take opposite sides. It’s incumbent on the Trump Administration to do what’s needed to ensure that Georgescu is allowed to run as president in May’s election redux and that the vote is truly free and fair instead of flawed as usual.
To that end, targeted sanctions against Romanian figures, credibly threatening to withdraw its troops from Romania, suspending arms contracts, and extending full political support to populist-nationalist protesters could pressure the authorities into reconsidering the wisdom of doing Brussels’ bidding. At the same time, a comprehensive pressure campaign could also backfire if the German-led EU exploits it as the pretext for deepening its already immense control over Romania, though that could backfire too.
It was explained https://korybko.substack.com/p/itll-be-a-lot-easier-said-than-done
in response to the likely next German chancellor’s pledge to “achieve independence” from the US that military, economic, and energy factors make that a lot easier said than done. If provoked, like could soon happen if the German-led EU pushes back against the US’ potentially impending pressure campaign on Romania, then Trump could weaponize each of them in his own such campaign against the EU and Germany that he stands a good chance of winning on both fronts.
Altogether, what just happened in Romania places the country at the center of the intra-Western ideological dimension of the New Cold War, which will determine the future of Europe. Liberal-globalists will either entrench their power in full defiance of Trump, possibly at enormous costs to their countries, or they’ll be democratically deposed by populist-nationalists who share the same worldview as his team. This struggle is historic and the consequences of its outcome will reverberate for decades.
Finally, we can't help but feel like JD Vance should be jumping up and down on X right, posting a 'told you so' about Europe's free-speech crushing, democracy-damaging self-implosion as he made cleAR THAT stands on the side of all populist-nationalist movements on the continent.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 15:45
Judge Declines To Block Policy That Lets Agents Arrest Illegal Immigrants At Schools
Judge Declines To Block Policy That Lets Agents Arrest Illegal Immigrants At Schools
(emphasis ours),
A federal judge on March 7 declined to block a new federal immigration enforcement policy that lets agents enter schools to arrest illegal immigrants.
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U.S. District Judge Daniel D. Domenico, during a hearing in Colorado, https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25555722-minute-order-in-denver-public-schools-case/
a request from Denver Public Schools to enter a temporary restraining order or a preliminary injunction against the policy. He said that Denver Public Schools failed to prove that a drop in attendance was due to a new policy from President Donald Trump’s administration.
The federal government in January https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/federal-government-authorizes-arrests-of-illegal-immigrants-at-schools-churches-5796833
guidelines that largely barred federal officers from arresting illegal immigrants at certain places, including schools and food banks.
Denver Public Schools https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/denver-sues-federal-government-over-policy-that-lets-immigration-agents-enter-schools-5809415
in its lawsuit that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had not demonstrated there were good reasons to implement the change.
“Defendants have provided no evidence that it examined relevant data, or any data. For example, Defendants have not cited any evidence to support its statement that criminals were hiding in schools,” the suit stated.
That means the move was arbitrary and capricious, in contravention of federal law, Denver officials said.
A DHS spokesperson said at the time that the administration was “protecting our schools, places of worship, and Americans who attend by preventing criminal aliens and gang members from exploiting these locations and taking safe haven there because these criminals knew law enforcement couldn’t go inside under the previous Administration. DHS’s directive gives our law enforcement the ability to do their jobs.”
A DHS official https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25555119/dhs-jan-31-memo.pdf
in a Jan. 31 memorandum that a supervisor needed to approve immigration enforcement operations at or near churches and other “protected areas.”
Since the policy change, Denver school officials said that there has been a decrease in school attendance and a slew of reported ICE raids around schools. Denver’s superintendent told the court that students and parents had been arrested in the raids, stoking fear in the school community.
Under a previous version of the policy, agents with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a DHS component, made just two arrests at schools, under exigent circumstances, from Oct. 1, 2018, through Oct. 31, 2020, according to a court filing. Another 18 arrests were made near schools.
Federal officials said in court filings that Denver officials have not shown the drop in attendance or any other injury was caused by the new DHS policy. “Rather, the evidence shows that any drop is the result of fears among students and parents, not any actual enforcement actions by DHS at schools, and may relate to false reports of immigration enforcement at schools or enforcement actions that did not take place on school grounds or at bus stops,” officials https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25555291/government-filing-in-immigration-enforcement-case.pdf
in one filing.
They also said that the new policy did not differ significantly from the previous policy. While that 2021 policy said in part that “we should not take an enforcement action in or near a location” listed as protected, agents were still able to conduct arrests at or around such places, the officials noted. Schools remain on a list of protected areas, and agents still need authorization before entering the locations, they added.
Domenico, the judge, said on Friday that it wasn’t clear how much of the fear surrounding possible enforcement actions in schools was really due to the new rules as opposed to broader concerns of increased immigration actions.
He noted the requirement that authorities receive supervisory approval before entering sensitive places and said that the fear over the new rules, as well as the belief that the old rules provided protection to schools, both seemed to be overstated.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 15:10
China Slumps Into Deflation Again, With First Negative Core CPI Print Since 2021
China Slumps Into Deflation Again, With First Negative Core CPI Print Since 2021
After a year of modest, barely perceptible inflation, China's CPI tumbled back far more than expected to fall below zero for the first time in 13 months, an assessment skewed by seasonal distortions but also a sign of deflationary pressures persisting in the economy. Here is the summary:
CPI: -0.7% yoy (-3.5% mom annualized*) in February vs. Bloomberg consensus: -0.4% yoy; January: +0.5% yoy (-1.7% mom annualized).
Food: -3.3% yoy in February (-13.1% mom annualized*) vs. +0.4% yoy in January.
Non-food: -0.1% yoy in February (-2.1% mom annualized*) vs. +0.5% yoy in January.
PPI: -2.2% yoy in February (-1.3% mom annualized*) vs. GS: -2.2% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: -2.1% yoy; January: -2.3% yoy (-0.8% mom annualized).
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In February, China's headline CPI inflation fell to -0.7% yoy from +0.5% yoy in January, driven by lower food prices and tourism-related services prices partly driven by an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday. Goldman estimates suggest the earlier holiday (January 29 vs. February 10 in 2024) reduced year-over-year headline CPI inflation by 0.7% in February. In month-on-month terms, headline CPI inflation fell to -3.5% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in February (vs. -1.7% mom s.a. annualized in January).
Even when adjusted for the effect of an earlier-than-usual Lunar New Year holiday, consumer inflation slowed to among the weakest levels in months, according to a Goldman report (available to pro subscribers in the usual place). A decline in services prices, combined with a rare negative reading for core inflation, were among symptoms of sluggish consumption.
More shocking was that China’s core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, decreased for the first time since 2021 with a drop of 0.1%, and only the second time the gauge has contracted over more than 15 years. Factory deflation extended into a 29th month.
?itok=BnN16ezv
“China’s economy still faces deflationary pressure,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “Domestic demand remains weak.”
The statistics bureau said a key factor for the decline in inflation was the effect of a high base from a year earlier, created by elevated prices caused by spending during the Lunar New Year. The festival is a moving holiday that fell entirely in February 2024 but ran from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4 this year.
When accounting for seasonality, the statistics bureau estimates consumer inflation actually rose 0.1% from a year earlier in February, according to a statement published on Sunday. Goldman economists estimate the earlier holiday brought year-over-year CPI inflation down by 0.7% in February, so roughly a wash.
Some more details courtesy of Goldman:
In year-over-year terms, food inflation dropped to -3.3% yoy in February from +0.4% yoy in January. The sharp decline of food inflation was mainly due to 1) lower food prices on decreased seasonal demand after the Lunar New Year holiday and 2) increased supply of fresh vegetables from warmer weather compared to a year ago.
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Among major food items, pork prices rose by +4.1% yoy in February (vs. +13.8% yoy in January). Fresh vegetable prices fell by 12.6% yoy in February (vs. +2.4% yoy in January), and fresh fruit prices declined by 1.8% yoy in February (vs. +0.6% yoy in January).
?itok=4G9AymyB
Non-food CPI inflation moderated to -0.1% yoy in February from +0.5% yoy in January. The fall of nonfood CPI inflation was mainly driven by lower tourism-related services prices in February, due to the distortions from timing of Lunar New year holiday.
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For example, transportation services prices fell 3.9% yoy in February (vs. +2.9% yoy in January). Fuel costs fell by 1.2% yoy in February (vs. -0.6% yoy in January), on the falling crude oil prices. After excluding food and energy prices, core CPI inflation fell to -0.1% yoy in February (vs. +0.6% in January). Services inflation declined materially to -0.4% yoy in February from +1.1% in January.
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Year-over-year PPI inflation edged up to -2.2% yoy in February (vs. -2.2% yoy in January). In month-over-month terms, PPI inflation declined to -1.3% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in February (vs. -0.8% in January). PPI inflation in producer goods edged up to -2.5% yoy in February (vs. -2.6% yoy in January), and PPI inflation in consumer goods was flat at -1.2% yoy in February.
A clearer read on China’s inflation trajectory will emerge in March, as investors look for signs that the government’s stimulus is translating into stronger domestic demand. The country is on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since the 1960s as a result of weak spending, while the property crash has yet to bottom out.
China has set its inflation target at the lowest level in over 20 years and now aims to bring consumer-price growth to around 2% in 2025 — down from the previous 3% target. It’s a signal top leaders are finally recognizing the deflationary pressures weighing on the world’s second-largest economy, with consumer inflation stuck at just 0.2% for the past two years.
Even so, it is unclear what miraculous stimulus China will unleash - monetary or fiscal - to send core inflation soaring to 2% in the coming 10 months.
Urgency has grown for the government to reflate the economy. At the annual parliament session Wednesday, China announced an ambitious economic growth goal of about 5% for 2025, despite the threat of an intensifying trade war with the US. Beijing also laid out plans to boost fiscal stimulus and domestic consumption.
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 14:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-slumps-deflation-again-first-negative-core-cpi-print-2021
You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet
By Peter Tchir of https://academysecurities.com/
You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet
I’m not sure what it means that this song, by a Canadian band, is stuck in my head, but I think it sums up where we are. If we listen to President Trump or Treasury Secretary Bessent – “we ain’t seen nothing yet.” Both are openly discussing possible hardships that need to be endured to get to the endgame they are looking for. Increasingly the endgame is that President Trump wants to create a legacy of returning manufacturing to the U.S. and re-invigorating a middle-class lifestyle in the U.S.
That is a laudable goal and it would be awesome if it could be achieved.
Many of our investment themes such as National Security Equals National Production and Refine Baby Refine are based on the U.S. taking the steps to achieve those goals.
We are not averse to the application of tariffs and think that at least some of the inflation concerns are overdone. We provided https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/the-new-trump-tariffs/?asmac=d4d98c66-8920-4abd-9370-7f54ab607907
, analyzing our overall views on tariffs, at the beginning of February. We do stand by the argument that corporations spend time to optimize their supply chains, and disruptions take time to digest, which will be problematic for the economy and earnings.
We have long argued that both Russia and Ukraine will need to be brought to the negotiating table with a mixture of “carrot and stick” diplomacy.
All of this fits well into our theme for 2025 – https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/messy-but-manageable/?asmac=ba4787d1-3951-408d-9e33-fd6757419f12
. This is less about the “what” (though concerns about the “what” are also rising), and much more about the “how.” The “what” vs “how” issue came up a lot during Trump 1.0. It seems to be coming up more and more lately, with a twist – is the “how” now affecting the “what?” We were all expecting an avalanche of executive orders and initiatives and that is what we are getting and dealing with.
It was all the way back in November that we published https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/3d-chess-or-52-card-pickup/?asmac=a91b91ad-7563-48e9-b66b-24fe44bc0c79
. The only thing I know for certain is that those who see the administration as playing 3D Chess, still see it that way, and those that see the opposite continue to see the opposite. For the rest of us, we are still trying to figure it out.
What Risk Assets Need to Rebound
We could go into a laundry list of details, but to me, there are two clear paths to a rebound in risk assets:
A lot of meaningful wins occur quickly. We’ve seen things like TSMC’s U.S. investment plans. We’ve seen or heard of various DOGE victories (though many of the initial claims seem to be getting watered down). We have seen, certainly with Mexico, some steps on the “war on drugs” front. But there have been stumbles. China, so far, doesn’t appear to be coming to the table with their hat in their hand. The list of risks is possibly longer than the list of wins so far. If that changes rapidly, and it could, then risk assets should be off to the races!
Consensus shifts to a high degree of certainty that the economic policies will deliver over time. Markets are always pricing in the future. If the market suddenly agreed that all of the current policies would shift us to the economy that the administration envisions, risk assets would rally.
I find option 1 far more likely than option 2 to trigger a rally in risk any time in the next few weeks.
Shifting the Narrative from Tax Cuts to Avoiding Tax Hikes
I’d love for a slew of new tax cuts to be put on the table. Bringing back the SALT deduction would be nice. But the reality is that extending the tax cuts that are expiring would not act like a tax cut. Literally no one, not one single person, is changing their spending behavior today with the expectation that taxes will be higher next year, because the cuts will expire (and deductions like SALT won’t be reinstated).
If the tax cuts don’t get extended that is like a tax hike! Merely extending the tax cuts already in place will not act like a tax cut for the economy, because it won’t affect spending. Yes, for all the official deficit projections, the extension will look like a tax cut, but it won’t impact the economy, because that is already priced into existing behavior.
This is a bit of a detour in today’s report, but I couldn’t help myself as this could be very important in the coming months as we start to see governing through legislation rather than through executive order.
The Market Risk of Deglobalization
Last weekend we questioned https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/where-is-the-economy-headed/?asmac=75d6b465-95ec-4b32-8e03-476a4ec7a993
? Nothing that has occurred in the past week changes my view that the risks remain to the downside (though option 1 above could occur at any time, causing a rapid rethink of this view).
But today, we are going to go down a slightly different path. We will even discuss a couple of things that we rarely mention in the T-Reports – P/E ratios and Warren Buffet.
There is a large body of academic and practical research on the relationship between trade flows and capital flows. Since I only play an economist on TV, I typically don’t place a lot of emphasis on things that are very difficult to measure or infer causality in real time, like capital vs trade flows (we discussed this on Bloomberg TV – flows that is, not playing the role of an economist ).
This administration is quite clearly adamant that trade balances need to be corrected. Will correcting trade balances have any negative consequences? The corollary is, did rising trade deficits accrue any benefits to the U.S.? Certainly, some portion of the academic literature would argue that it did, potentially through capital flows. But that is all “too highfalutin” for a T-Report, so let’s bring it down to our level.
Somewhere between 25% and over 40% of revenue for the S&P 500 companies comes from outside the U.S. AI came up with 28% and someone I know well (and trust more than AI), Torsten Slok, produced a slide published on February 5th, showing “41% of revenue in the S&P 500 companies comes from abroad” (https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spark/?query-15-page=4
).
In any case a significant amount of revenue (and presumably earnings and/or sales, depending on how revenue is used) comes from outside of the U.S. for the companies in the S&P 500. We have argued over and over, especially from a geopolitical standpoint, that this is crucial. “China Inc.” is the concept that Chinese companies and the Chinese government are effectively one and the same. That is just not the case for the U.S. government and U.S. companies (companies in the S&P 500 in this case).
The U.S. government is here to serve its constituents – which are the citizens of the Unites States. Administrations may find that the best way to do that varies, but that is ultimately their goal. It is clear that this administration is currently taking a focused view on what their constituency needs – lower taxes and more manufacturing.
The companies in the S&P 500 presumably have constituents across the globe that they need to pay attention to. Not just as customers, but also as suppliers. I haven’t spent much time on this because:
With some hiccups, we had been drifting towards more and more globalization where national boundaries seemed to make less of a difference. Since 2018 when Academy started focusing on China as a Strategic Competitor we could hone our analysis in on China (our view that China is shifting from https://academysecurities.com/macro-strategy-insights/the-threat-of-made-by-china-2025/?asmac=d6385716-2883-4f05-bd1e-e06827136c9f
, went from being an outlying viewpoint, to pretty much consensus in the past year or so).
We have presumed companies have optimized their supply chains and distribution networks, and while from time to time, government policies (here and abroad) would create risks and opportunities, they have only impacted companies at the margins.
Right now, this isn’t at the margins and everyday there are indications of accelerating deglobalization (or at least dramatic changes in interconnectivity – like the potential for a reinvigorated trading relationship between Russia and the U.S.).
First chart ever looking at P/E ratios.
?itok=xbZMMb_o
There have been a few periods when the average P/E ratio between the S&P 500 and the STOXX 600 has diverged. The times when the U.S. was significantly higher than Europe have been highlighted in orange. The recent divergence has lasted longer and is significantly higher than the other two periods of divergence since the early 2000s.
P/E ratios, especially for the U.S., but also for Europe (at least until 2022) have been drifting higher.
There are several reasons for this that have nothing to do with deglobalization:
More wealth chasing fewer public investment options.
A higher percentage of tech companies in the U.S. indices.
But what if globalization also allowed P/E ratios to rise? That the benefits and efficiencies of globalization helped investors get comfortable with paying more for stocks? That companies being able to optimize their businesses globally supported higher P/E ratios?
I’m not arguing that globalization was the biggest force behind higher P/E ratios, especially during the recent wave of AI valuations soaring, but it seems plausible that it was a part of it. Especially with somewhere around 1/3 of S&P 500 revenues coming from outside of the U.S.
Which brings us to Warren Buffet. The only time that I can recall mentioning him was in reference to his insurance companies selling massive amounts of first loss protection on the HY CDX Index first loss tranche. It was an incredibly efficient way to raise money at Libor flat to pay for Katrina damages (with low tail risk, unlike other things they underwrote). Pretty impressive for a person who is famous for claiming “derivatives are weapons of mass financial destruction.” But I digress.
?itok=dJk1jZb5
I could be wrong (I really don’t pay attention to Buffet), but I think he is often linked to comparing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 with U.S. GDP. There are a number of bears out there who point out this disparity. Many seem to link it to
Buffet holding record amounts of cash.
I’ve largely dismissed any comparison between U.S. GDP and the S&P 500 Market Cap because – you guessed it – about 1/3 of revenue comes from overseas!
Comparing global equity market cap to global GDP makes more sense, but it is nothing I spent much time thinking about, until recently.
I think it is more difficult to argue that globalization hasn’t played a role in this divergence! Again, lots of other factors are at work, but how much of that orange oval is linked to the benefits of globalization that may be getting disrupted?
Bottom Line
We are at the very early stages of a dramatic realignment of the global economy. The U.S. is the one setting it in motion, and the administration seems comfortable with creating bumps along the way. If the legacy is achieved, will it be great for domestic stocks? Unclear, but that is not today’s issue. Others are responding to the steps set in motion by this administration (we could also go back in time and figure out who did what to who, and when they did what to who, but tracing an “eye for an eye” back to the first eye, hardly ever accomplishes anything).
On risk assets, look for continued reversion to the mean. Own what is under-owned and shorted (globally). Be underweight what has been overbought and remains crowded longs. (Despite the recent domestic sell-off, despite the Nasdaq 100 closing below the 200-day moving average, I’m struggling to see signs of capitulation).
This is likely to bleed into credit spreads. The weakness that started a week or so ago, and accelerated last week, is likely to continue as this isn’t just reacting to shifts in data, it is the beginning of a reaction to a potential dramatic shift in global economics.
Rates are confusing to me. On the one hand, our outlook for the economy would indicate lower yields. I’m firmly in the 3 to 4 cuts camp, starting in May (I’d argue that we got into that camp before others starting joining us). But is that what will drive 10s and beyond? The 10-year yield rose 10 bps during a week in which the Nasdaq and S&P dropped over 3% (and no, the drop wasn’t tied to rate fears). Longer dated bonds have to contend with higher yields elsewhere. These are some of the same capital flow issues that foreigners may see, potentially making the U.S. seem like a less interesting place to allocate assets. DOGE (and the deficit) seemed to take off like a rocket ship, but lately, under more scrutiny, the work seems less impressive than initially publicized. No doubt it is finding fat and excess, but maybe not to the degree or ease that it felt like in the first days of rapid-fire announcements. I was worried that an aggressive effort to buy crypto would have hurt the bond market, but we seem to have avoided that, for now. So, with two hands balancing so much, I’d err to slight caution on rates, but think 4.2% to 4.4% is fair on 10s. We only get below that range on weak data (which may be coming, but it is a bit early). We could get higher on good data (which wouldn’t be bad) or we could break the range to the upside on yields because of a buyer strike, which would not be good for anyone!
I do think that crypto remains a leader on some days, and think that we could see further weakness next week as no new money was committed and this is a market that needs new money to flourish.
While it is difficult to be as bearish at levels around 10% below the highs, that is the direction I’m leaning as this isn’t your run-of-the-mill response to earnings and economic headlines. We are trying to price in a potentially massive change to the global economic and geopolitical landscape!
Despite the volatility that we’ve already experienced, I suspect that We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet. On that happy note, the weather looks to be turning for the better for much of the country!
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 14:00
Americans Can No Longer Tolerate European Entitlement
Americans Can No Longer Tolerate European Entitlement
https://x.com/shellenberger/status/1895619231586402473
,
There's something I need to say and I need to be blunt.
So let me start by saying I love Europe. Truly love Europe. I love visiting Europe, I love Europeans, I have European friends. I respect the relationship we've had for a really long time.
You Europeans do not respect Americans. You can protest and say, no, no, we love America. No, you don't. We know you look down on us. You think you're better than us. And in some ways you are. You know, you work 35 hours a week. You have longer vacations. You've got this magnificent culture. We get it. But any relationship in which one side doesn't respect the other can't last.
It's this thing where Ukraine comes to the White House and acts like it can tell us what we should do.
That's not what the relationship is.
This thing where somehow we're on the hook, including for countries that are not in NATO. That was never the deal. Ukraine is not part of NATO. We were never obligated to protect Ukraine.
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Maybe that was something that Europe wants to do that. Great. Go. Europe should go protect Ukraine.
We have no NATO agreement with Ukraine. And this thing where Zelensky then goes and quotes all these other European leaders. They're with me, not with the United States. Great. Go, go, go work together.
We have 100,000 Americans being killed by the Chinese and Mexican fentanyl and methamphetamine mafias every year. Our kids are not learning to read. We have thousands of veterans with PTSD and are hurting. We have been at war in the Middle East for a quarter century. It's been 80 years since we bailed out Europe. You have your own militaries. You have your own nuclear weapons. I've been trying to be really indirect about this for years.
I've been trying to be soft peddling that you guys don't get it. Europeans do not get it. You guys think that this relationship is going to last forever. You think that because something's written down on a piece of paper, it's going to last forever. Americans have voted against this multiple times. This is not about what you think of Trump or like Trump. People on the left, on the right, they do not want to be in a nuclear war with Russia.
How can we explain this to you?
We do not want to continue to be in the Ukraine war. We want peace.
Our natural inclination is to actually not get involved in conflicts in Europe and Asia We didn't want to have to continue to intervene after World War II. I get it, but times have changed. We're ready to move on.
We bear a lot of responsibility for this. The United States bears a lot of responsibility for this.
Our people, our administrations, our think tanks told Zelensky and told the Europeans that we were loyal to that alliance, that we were going to stick with them. No, the American people are not on board with that. Again, the left has traditionally been against those kinds of military entanglements. Now the right is, but a lot of the left is too. A lot of Democrats, a lot of liberals. I would love an orderly transition here, but the behavior that we're seeing coming out of European leaders and out of Zelensky just now in the Oval Office suggests that the relationship is over. We'll reset the relationship afterwards.
We're going to have a trade. We're going to visit each other. It's great. But this thing of this entitlement, I don't think Europeans understand how angry it makes us. I don't think Europeans really understand how much Americans want to deal with our problems. We go to Europe. You have universal healthcare. You work 35 hours a week. You retire at a young age. You don't work nearly as hard as we do in the United States. You have many more benefits in Large part because we pay for all of your security or a large part of it. And in return, we just get disrespect, entitlement, like your children.
This is a dysfunctional relationship. It needs to end. It needs to change. Maybe there's a transition period something, but this has gone too far. I think that the anger that you saw in the White House with Trump in advance with Zelensky holding his arms, rolling his eyes, acting like he was telling us what the deal was. No, that's not a Republican, Democrat, whatever thing. That is not how we're going to be treated by people that we're helping.
So it's time to grow up. It's time for the relationship to change.
Healthy relationships depend on mutual respect. Ukraine and Europe don't respect us; they look down on us. America never had any obligation to protect Ukraine. And now we're asking why we should continue to spend our money, and put our lives on the line, to protect Europe. https://t.co/XgdfDogPfO
— Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) https://twitter.com/shellenberger/status/1895619231586402473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 09:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/americans-can-no-longer-tolerate-european-entitlement
Visualizing The Ukraine Refugee Crisis In Europe
Visualizing The Ukraine Refugee Crisis In Europe
Three years of war have created Europe’s largest displacement crisis since https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/02/1160331
, forcing millions of Ukrainians from their homes.
Over a third of Ukraine’s population has been forcibly displaced due to the war, according to the https://www.unrefugees.org/news/people-still-being-forced-to-flee-as-ukraine-s-war-continues/
.
This visualization, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-ukraine-refugee-crisis-in-europe/
shows the number of Ukrainian refugees recorded in the 10 countries that have received the most refugees.
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Data comes from the https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine
. The UNHCR refers to refugees as all individuals who left Ukraine due to the war.
Latest data for Russia is as of June 2024. United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Czechia data is as of December 2024. Romania, Germany, Poland, Italy, and Spain as of January 2025, and Slovakia as of February 2025.
Which European Country Has the Most Ukrainian Refugees?
Below, we show the 10 European countries hosting the largest number of Ukrainian refugees, based on the latest available data.
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Since the start of the war, around 6.9 million Ukrainians have been displaced globally, with about 5 million finding refuge in the top 10 host countries in Europe.
Germany (1.24 million), Russia (1.22 million), and Poland (998,000) have received the largest numbers of Ukrainian refugees.
Smaller countries like Czechia (390,000), Slovakia (164,000), and Moldova (128,000) have also provided significant support, demonstrating the broad impact of Ukraine’s refugee crisis across Europe.
Many of these countries have implemented https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ukraine-refugees-eu/?
, granting refugees access to housing, healthcare, and employment opportunities.
However, the strain on resources has led to challenges in some regions, including housing shortages and increased rents and competition for affordable housing.
For example, one https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2024.2334822
found that the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Poland led to a 0.72–0.74% increase in housing rents for every 1% increase in a city’s population due to the inflow of refugees.
To learn more about the Russia-Ukraine war, check out this https://www.voronoiapp.com/geopolitics/The-Largest-Donors-of-Aid-to-Ukraine-4186
that visualizes the 10 largest donors of aid to Ukraine.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sun, 03/09/2025 - 08:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/visualizing-ukraine-refugee-crisis-europe
What Happens To The Middle East If Russia & The US Stop Being Enemies?
What Happens To The Middle East If Russia & The US Stop Being Enemies?
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/what-happens-middle-east-if-russia-and-us-stop-being-enemies
Some call it the end of the post-war order. Others, a grand realignment. Regardless of how it's defined, the Middle East faces a new paradigm: what happens when the US stops viewing Russia as a foe and instead as a potential partner, or at the very least, a neutral actor? American diplomats and analysts are still struggling to come to grips with this potentially historic shift.
When asked about a report that Israel was lobbying the Trump administration to let Russia keep its military bases in Syria, one career US diplomat in the region replied, “Well, that would be against our national interests?” They responded with silence when asked what would happen if the US president didn’t see it that way. Trump has said he wants to partner with Russia for “incredible opportunities”.
On Friday, Trump doubled down, saying he found it easier to deal with Russia than Ukraine, a country the US had been supplying arms and intelligence to until recently. Asked about Russia’s widespread attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, Trump said Putin was "doing what anybody else would do”.
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Trump, Nixon and the China analogy
The US view of Russia as a foe working against its interests has defined the Middle East since the end of WWII, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt courted Saudi Arabia for Gulf oil. In the following decades, the US worked to counter the Soviet Union across the region.
The US’s support for Israel in the 1973 War led to an eventual peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. In the process, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat evicted Soviet military advisors who had been welcomed by Gamal Abdel Nasser. Until December 2024, the United States viewed the toppled Syrian Assad dynasty as a vehicle for nefarious Russian power projection.
Trump’s allies looking to explain his outreach to Putin have said he is trying to break up a bloc of states, mainly Russia, Iran and China, from coordinating against the US. They add that Trump’s overtures echo the strategic diplomacy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger opening up to China in the 1970s.
Chas Freeman, a former US diplomat, whose career spanned almost three decades, told Middle East Eye it was a “false comparison”.
“A better analogy to Trump’s opening to Putin is Sadat going to Jerusalem.” Freeman is reliable on the subject considering he was the interpreter for Nixon’s trip.
In the Middle East, Trump’s bid to work with Putin may reflect his priorities and a geopolitical world view. Some of Trump’s confidants have raised the alarm about Turkey’s expanding influence.
Steve Bannon & Mike Flynn's worldview
Steve Bannon, a former Trump advisor whose podcast War Room has become required listening to those seeking to discern Trump’s world view, said recently that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was “one of the most dangerous leaders” in the world and wants to "re-establish the Ottoman Empire”.
Trump himself said that the collapse of the Assad government in Syria was merely an “unfriendly takeover” by Turkey. Trump wants to withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria. According to Reuters, Israel has told the Trump administration one way to reduce Turkey’s influence in the country would be via Russia.
“Donald Trump wants to be out of Syria. I can imagine that Russia and Israel cooperate to limit Turkish influence there and Trump just says, ‘I don’t care. You guys deal with Turkey',” Robert Ford, the US’s former ambassador to Syria, told MEE.
Trump has selected traditional Republicans who have been hostile to Russia, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security advisor Mike Waltz. But career US diplomats and defence officials say their influence is limited. For example, Rubio sat silent as Vice President JD Vance challenged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last month. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s unconfirmed Middle East envoy, was the one tapped to meet Putin - speaking for roughly three hours -in Russia.
The gatekeepers to Trump’s selection of appointees are not diehard Russia hawks but those who believe the US should engage Moscow.
Officials looking to get into the White House have courted Mike Flynn, Trump’s former national security advisor who was ousted from his first administration over his discussions with the Russians. Trump https://www.yahoo.com/news/president-trump-says-offered-michael-220652097.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJCD3YVtmJFtqfRdYIaEdUpV74wMKCu3PHhAhITMCQp2cdsD7vBpfQSb7WySkLisE0bTM0-Mfhqfw0D_8KKyr-uUawNy-Y5qxXIoLNx96XCtF5LdTMaOP6qFEGZB_PVdPJAHJoz-7BqLcM4sTNvsXjERNEmbd1qF1jTAiIRsl5bt
he offered Flynn "about ten jobs" in his new administration.
Can Russia broker a US-Iran deal?
Trump hasn’t revived ties with Russia for the Middle East - he wants a ceasefire in Ukraine - but there are areas in the region where Russia is trying to entice the White House.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin said that future talks between Russia and the US would include discussions on Iran's nuclear programme. Spokesman Dmitry Peskoa appeared to acknowledge a report that Russia offered to mediate between the Islamic Republic and the Trump administration.
Trump says he wants a diplomatic deal with Iran over its nuclear programme. On Friday, he said he sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, asking for talks. The Obama administration, which tried its own so-called reset with Russia, leaned on the Kremlin during the 2015 nuclear talks.
“Obama gave Russia a lot of concessions for its mediation in the 2015 nuclear deal,” Anna Borshchevskaya, a Russia expert at the Washington Institute For Near East Policy, told MEE. “In practice, Russia acted as Iran’s lawyer, watering down US concerns about Iranian nuclear proliferation.”
In fact, Russia played a key role for the US after the deal was signed, with Iran shipping excess uranium to Russia to ensure it couldn’t be used as a bomb. In return, Russia, which shares the Caspian Sea with Iran, https://www.mei.edu/publications/russia-receives-prepayment-new-nuclear-plant-iran
economic benefits, sealing a deal to construct a nuclear power plant.
Ford, however, cautioned that Russia’s utility to the US on nuclear talks might be limited. The Obama administration itself bypassed Russia and its European powers to negotiate directly with Iran during the talks.
“Kerry was meeting Zarif directly and then back-briefing the Europeans. I can’t imagine the US or Iranians would rely on the Russians. This is such a life and death matter for Tehran,” Ford said, referring to former Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammad Zarif, who negotiated the 2015 deal.
Freeman said he is skeptical a grand Russian-US rapprochement will materialize. "Things are rearranging themselves in very unpredictable ways. It's like a kaleidoscope. You bang two sides together, and no one knows what new pattern will be formed,” but he said that in the Middle East, what's likely is not “active cooperation, but American silence”.
Chasing Gulf money
If the war in Ukraine ends and Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, he could dent some of the Gulf states' economic activity.
The United Arab Emirates and Russia were deepening ties before the Biden administration slapped sanctions on Russia. But after that, the UAE became a hub for re-exporting sanctioned goods. Russia could stop paying Emirati middlemen and buy directly from the United States if Trump ends the sanctions.
Borshchevskaya said that Russia could also look to make up lost ground in its weapons sales to the Gulf states if Trump lifts sanctions. Even during the war, the Arab Gulf talked to Russia about arms sales. Russian arms manufacturers displayed their goods alongside the US at the UAE’s arms expos in recent years.
US officials who spoke with MEE said they believe the US’s advantage over Russia in the oil-rich Gulf makes it a tough competition. Countries like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are deeply wired into US air defence systems, such as the Patriots and THAADS.
Meanwhile, the UAE is deepening its cooperation with the US in high-tech sectors like AI, where Russia struggles to compete.
Even as Trump riles Europe, he is courting the Gulf region. On Friday he announced that Saudi Arabia would be his first trip abroad as president after Riyadh agreed to invest $1 trillion in American companies over a four-year period. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there… probably over the next month and a half.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 03/08/2025 - 23:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/what-happens-middle-east-if-russia-us-stop-being-enemies
US P-3B Orion Spy Plane Spotted Over Mexico As SIGINT Ops Target Cartels
US P-3B Orion Spy Plane Spotted Over Mexico As SIGINT Ops Target Cartels
President Trump's address to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night made it very clear that Mexican drug cartels have been put on notice—the fight may soon be coming to them.
"The cartels are waging war on America, and it's time for America to wage war on the cartels," Trump told lawmakers, referring to the drug death catastrophe claiming 100,000 American lives per year—fueled by Mexican cartels. This is the clearest indication that the president's 'America First' has shifted focus on dismantling cartel command and control networks.
PRESIDENT TRUMP: “The cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.” https://t.co/W9TUuLUmQv
— CPAC (@CPAC) https://twitter.com/CPAC/status/1897131503836188873?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Ahead of the fight against cartels, the US government conducted several signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations near the US-Mexico border using spy planes.
Some of these operations include:
According to local media outlet https://diariocambio22.mx/campeche-ya-fue-escaneado-por-aviones-de-estados-unidos/
, the latest SIGINT operation involving a US spy plane occurred last week in the southeastern state of Campeche.
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Here's more color about the operation via the source:
Virtually the entire southeastern territory of the country has already been "scanned" by the United States in its fight against drug trafficking, logically including the state of Campeche.
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The Lockheed P-3B Orion aircraft, registration N149CS, of the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) service, has been carrying out reconnaissance work over Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán since the beginning of this week.
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The aircraft, with high spying capabilities, was spotted on Tuesday 4th at the "Manuel Crescencio Rejón" International Airport or Mérida International Airport (MMMD). "A tremendous visitor yesterday (04/03/25) the powerful Lookheed P-3B Orion (N149CS)," wrote Alex Piña in the Facebook group "Aeropuerto MMMD."
However, the N149CS was seen this Wednesday, 5th, near the Tuxtla Gutiérrez Airport, Chiapas, according to the specialized application FlightAware. According to another flight tracking app: FlightRadar24, the American plane, belonging to Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has flown over the territory of Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán.
🔍🕵🏻𝐂𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐚 𝐟𝐮𝐞 𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐨 𝐩𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞 𝐄𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐝𝐨𝐬 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐝𝐨𝐬.
🛫🇺🇸 El avión Lockheed P-3B Orion ya sobrevuela el sur del país, practicamente todo el territorio Sursureste del país ha sido "escaneado" por Estados Unidos en su lucha… https://t.co/Jlc33WDJ53
— Diario CAMBIO 22 (@DiarioCAMBIO22) https://twitter.com/DiarioCAMBIO22/status/1898072635923194290?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Last month, Green Berets from the US Army's 7th Special Forces Group deployed on a training mission in Campeche—a Mexican port city on the Gulf of Mexico, and the CIA reportedly flew MQ-9 Reaper drones...
This SIGINT operation took place in a strategic chokepoint for drug trafficking...
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... where narcotics flow from Central and South America through Mexico before reaching the US.
You might want to reconsider or reschedule that all-inclusive resort trip to Cancun, Playa del Carmen, or Tulum.
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Sat, 03/08/2025 - 14:35