Bullard Backs 100bps In 2025 Rate Cuts In Hopes Of Replacing Powell
Bullard Backs 100bps In 2025 Rate Cuts In Hopes Of Replacing Powell
With candidates hoping to replace Jerome Powell coming up with increasingly dovish - not to mention - plans on how to attract Trump's attention and jump in the lead earlier this morning, former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who has emerged a long-shot contender for the next US central bank chief, called for a percentage point of interest-rate cuts this year, with scope to do more in 2026.
“Rates are a little bit high right now, and I think we can get down about 100 basis points going into 2026 — I think that’ll start with a rate reduction here at the September meeting, and probably be followed up later this year,” Bullard said on Fox Business Thursday.
Bullard, now dean of Purdue University’s business school, said he’d been in contact with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about his candidacy for Fed chair, and is aiming to set up an interview with him, “probably” after Labor Day — which falls on Sept. 1.
As for further rate cuts next year, Bullard said it will depend on how data come in. He also cited the need to protect the reserve status of the dollar.
Unfortunately for Bullard, he remains dead last in the https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair?tid=1755783705885
, and he will have to either push for NIRP or, even better, Yield Curve Control if he hopes to have any real chance of getting Trump to notice him.
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https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:47
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullard-backs-100bps-2025-rate-cut-hopes-replacing-powell
US, EU Release Details Of Trade Deal
US, EU Release Details Of Trade Deal
The US and European Union finally laid out the details of their recently announced trade deal which reduces tariffs on European automobiles while opening the door to new potential discounts for steel and aluminum.
The joint statement issued this morning represents an advancement of the preliminary deal announced a month ago, and includes specific benchmarks for the EU to secure its promised sectoral tariff discounts on cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, as well as new commitments for addressing the bloc’s digital services regulations.
Trump had repeatedly praised the sweeping US-EU trade framework, extolling it as “a big deal” in a Monday White House meeting with foreign leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The development underscores the nature of trade talks under Trump, with some initial, broad pronouncements of deals giving way to weeks or more of work to hammer out detailed agreements. Many of them are also tied to sweeping policy changes that could take time to materialize.
For example, Trump already imposed a flat 15% rate on most European goods, half the 30% he’d previously threatened. But the US promise to extend that lower levy to autos and auto parts now hinges on the EU formally introducing a legislative proposal to eliminate a host of its own tariffs on US industrial goods and provide “preferential market access” for some US seafood and agricultural products.
Below we summarize the highlights from the deal:
US to levy 15% tariff on most EU imports, including autos, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips and lumber.
US and EU to consider steps to ensure secure supply chains, including tariff rate-quota solutions.
US and EU commit to address ‘unjustified digital trade barriers,’ with EU agreeing not to adopt network usage fees.
US and EU to consider cooperation on ring-fencing domestic steel and aluminum markets from overcapacity.
US and EU to negotiate rules of origin to ensure the trade agreement benefits predominantly both partners.
EU companies to invest an additional USD 600bln across US strategic sectors through 2028.
EU intends to procure USD 750bln in US LNG, oil and nuclear energy products, plus at least USD 40bln of US AI chips.
From September 1, US to apply only MFN tariffs on EU aircraft and parts, generic pharmaceuticals, ingredients, chemical precursors and unavailable natural resources.
US will lower tariffs on autos and auto parts when EU introduces legislation to enact tariff reductions.
EU intends to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural goods.
Senior US official expects tariff relief for EU automakers to come in 'hopefully weeks.*
US and EU release joint statement locking in details of trade deal reached last month.
Tariffs:
15% on most goods (vs 30% threatened)
15% on Autos (prev. 25%)
15% on Pharma + Chips
US will retain a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminium
Zero-for-zero tariffs have been agreed for some agricultural products, aircraft component parts, and certain chemical
No final agreement has been reached yet on tariffs for spirits
Aircraft exports are temporarily exempt from tariffs pending the outcome of a US investigation
EU Investments
EU will invest USD 600bln in the US, including in military equipment
EU will purchase USD 750bln worth of US energy, mainly LNG
As Bloomberg reports, the statement outlines choreographed action on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US codifying reduced auto tariffs once the EU “formally introduces the necessary legislative proposal to enact” its own promised tariff reductions. The discounted 15% tariffs on European auto imports, lower than a 27.5% Trump previously imposed on them, would be effective from the start of the same month that legislation is advanced.
They could be in place within weeks, said a senior Trump administration official who briefed reporters on the initiative. The shift has been anxiously anticipated by some EU member states, particularly Germany, which exported $34.9 billion of new cars and auto parts to the US in 2024.
The legislative trigger is designed to help ensure the EU delivers on its promised tariff reductions — and ensure the 27-nation bloc has sufficient pressure to obtain the political mandate needed to make the changes, the administration official said.
Meanwhile, the US is committing to apply lower most-favored-nation tariffs to a slew of other European products — including aircraft and aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and some natural resources such as cork. The US is also renewing its commitment to cap sectoral tariffs on European pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and lumber at 15%.
It’s also opening the prospect for discounted rates on some steel, aluminum and derivative products under a quota system. That’s a shift from the White House’s stated plans in July, when the Trump administration insisted those metal tariffs would remain at 50%, helping to lower trade deficits with the EU and bring revenue to US coffers.
On steel and aluminum, the EU and US now assert they “intend to consider the possibility to cooperate on ring-fencing their respective domestic markets from overcapacity, while ensuring secure supply chains between each other,” according to the joint statement.
As discussed here before, the document raises major questions about how the EU might fulfill its promise to invest $600 billion in the US or purchase some $750 billion in US energy resources, including liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear power products. through 2028.
Private sector investments by European companies would be expected across strategic sectors in the US, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, the senior administration official said. Meanwhile, the EU plans to substantially increase procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, according to the statement, and intends to buy at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips.
According to the joint statement, the EU intends to provide preferential market access for seafood and non-sensitive agricultural goods imported from the US, including tree nuts, certain dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, planting seeds, soybean oil, and pork and bison meat.
In recent weeks, deliberations over the EU’s digital services regulations and potential relief for some goods — including wine and spirits - were seen prolonging talks. The EU didn’t secure lower rates for alcohol in the joint statement.
But the US and EU are pledging to address some of what the statement calls “unjustified digital trade barriers,” with the bloc confirming that it will “not adopt or maintain network usage fees.”
The EU has committed to work toward providing more “flexibilities” in its levy on carbon-intensive imports set to kick in next year, the statement said, and it will seek to ensure its corporate sustainability due diligence and reporting requirements don’t pose “undue restrictions on transatlantic trade.”
Potential changes could include eased compliance requirements for small- and medium-sized businesses, according to the statement.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-eu-release-details-trade-deal
Robbed, Punched, And Pistol-Whipped - A White House Reporter's Account Of Crime In DC
Robbed, Punched, And Pistol-Whipped - A White House Reporter's Account Of Crime In DC
(emphasis ours),
Commentary
The latest move by the White House to crack down on crime in Washington prompted me to reflect on a harrowing https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/reporter-for-epoch-times-sister-media-robbed-at-gunpoint-in-dc-5018803
from my own life - the morning I was robbed at gunpoint just steps from my apartment.
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It was 8:30 a.m. on a Saturday in January 2022. I had just left my building near The Wharf in Southwest D.C. when a man in a black ski mask appeared out of nowhere, pointed a https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/reporter-for-epoch-times-sister-media-robbed-at-gunpoint-in-dc-5018803
, and demanded my phone.
“Give me your phone,” he barked as he snatched it from my jacket pocket.
Then, with cold precision, he ordered me to hand over my wallet, laptop, and phone password.
Before fear even set in, instinct kicked in—not to protect my belongings, but to protect the sensitive information I carried. As a White House reporter for NTD Television, the sister outlet of The Epoch Times, I felt an overwhelming duty to safeguard my sources, colleagues, and loved ones.
“I can’t,” I said. “Don’t do this.”
He struck me across the face with the butt of his handgun.
My cheek went numb and flushed red.
“Help! Help!” I screamed as he ran off. A neighbor called the police. Later, an officer told me the assailant had fled into an apartment just a block away. They believed they knew who he was—but I never heard from them again.
I stayed surprisingly composed during the attack, but once I got back inside, the fear set in. He could have shot me. I could have died—just as my career was beginning. My parents and now-husband were hundreds of miles away.
I grew up in New York City and considered myself street-smart. Crime statistics had always been just numbers. I walked the streets of Queens and Manhattan alone, day or night. That Saturday morning shattered that confidence.
It’s been more than two years. Since then, I’ve never walked the streets of D.C. alone at night. I Uber home every day—even though my office is within walking distance. I’m on high alert after dark, whether I’m working or just meeting friends. Fear lives around every corner.
I didn’t tell my grandparents what happened until a year later—I was afraid it would devastate them and convince them I should leave D.C. entirely. Truthfully, I still love this city. But the scar of that morning lingers.
So when friends ask, “Is D.C. safe?” I don’t just share the stats. I share what happened to me.
Officially, the Metropolitan Police Department says violent crime is down 35 percent from its 2023 peak, and city leaders say we’re near a 30-year low. But lived experience tells a different story.
Last year alone, D.C. reported 29,348 crimes, including:
3,469 violent offenses
1,026 assaults with a dangerous weapon
2,113 robberies
That’s thousands of families like mine, who have endured the trauma and aftermath of violence.
Some experts say not all crimes are even reported. Others point to claims that police leadership under-reported data to make the numbers look better. One thing, however, is hard to manipulate: the homicide rate.
In 2024, D.C.’s homicide rate was 27.3 per 100,000 residents—the fourth-highest in the country, and more than double the rate from just a decade ago.
So far in 2025, there have been more than 100 homicides.
Among the victims:
Three-year-old Honesty Cheadle, shot while sitting in a car with her family after Fourth of July fireworks.
21-year-old Capitol Hill intern Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, killed while walking through Northwest D.C. one evening.
And just hours after President Trump declared a public safety emergency on August 12, a 33-year-old man was shot and killed in Logan Circle—less than a mile from the White House.
These are not just numbers. Each one is a person. A life cut short. A family changed forever.
As national debate swirls around crime in the capital and whether National Guard troops should patrol its streets, I hope we remember the human cost behind every statistic.
I’m expecting my first child at the end of this year. And we’ve decided we won’t stay in D.C.—not until both the numbers and the stories prove the city has truly changed.
As a new mom, I want my son to grow up in a place where he can walk freely, play safely, and live without fear. I think most parents want the same.
And I hope—someday—we can live that vision here in our nation’s capital: a clean, beautiful, and truly shining city on a hill once again.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:15
Initial Claims Unexpectedly Jump As Continuing Claims Surge To Four-Year Highs On Deep Tri-State Misery
Initial Claims Unexpectedly Jump As Continuing Claims Surge To Four-Year Highs On Deep Tri-State Misery
One week after initial claims printed at the same level (224k) where they were at in Nov 2021 (with non-seasonally adjusted claims hovering near record lows), moments ago the BLS reported that claims jumped in the last week, rising by 11k to 235K, the highest since June 20. Curiously the jump in seasonally adjusted claims took place even as unadjusted claims dipped to 2025 lows.
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A breakdown of initial claims by state does not show any dramatic outliers: Kentucky saw the biggest increase in initial claims, up almost 2K, while claims in California dropped by 1,948.
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Meanwhile, the relentless rise in continuing jobless claims continues, and in the latest week rose to 1.972 million, up from 1942 million, and above the 1.960 million expected; it was also the highest print since the covid crash.
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The silver lining (if that's what one would call it) is the continuing jobless claims across the Deep TriState keep rising...
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Must may be gone, but DOGE is still taking deep state coup-plotter scalps.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:51
"Too Expensive And Risky": Bed Bath & Beyond Explains Why It Won’t Operate Stores In "Overregulated" California
"Too Expensive And Risky": Bed Bath & Beyond Explains Why It Won’t Operate Stores In "Overregulated" California
The chairman of the resurrected home goods chain Bed Bath & Beyond announced on Aug. 20 that the company would not open or operate retail stores in California, calling it overregulated, expensive, and risky.
“This decision isn’t about politics—it’s about reality,” company head Marcus Lemonis said in a social media https://x.com/marcuslemonis/status/1958162142651470232?s=61
.
“California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America. It’s a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, and harder to deliver value to customers.”
Lemonis—the executive chairman of Beyond, Inc., which owns Bed Bath & Beyond—claimed that the state’s regulations result in higher taxes, fees, and wages that many businesses can’t sustain. The regulations strangle growth, he said.
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office did not express concern about the retailer’s announcement in a response following the company’s announcement.
“After their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed, Bath & Beyond no longer existed,” Newsom’s spokesperson, Tara Gallegos, told The Epoch Times in an email.
“We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a 2nd [sic] store.”
Bed Bath & Beyond, founded in 1971, expanded to become a U.S. retail icon of home goods, experiencing significant growth.
In 2023, the company filed for https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/bed-bath-beyond-lives-online-overstock-com-buys-rights-to-bankrupt-retailer-and-changes-name-5364592
, closing hundreds of stores after years of dismal sales and several attempts to turn the struggling business around. The company was purchased by online retailer Overstock.com and transitioned to an online-only presence.
Bed Bath & Beyond closed all 41 of its California stores, along with all other U.S. locations, in July 2023.
The retailer’s parent company, The Brand House Collective, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iconic-bed-bath--beyond-brand-returns-to-stores-with-first-bed-bath--beyond-home-in-nashville-302514528.html
a grand opening of its first Bed Bath & Beyond Home store in Nashville set for Aug. 8. The company’s shareholders approved the move in July.
“We’re proud to reintroduce one of retail’s most iconic names with the launch of Bed Bath & Beyond Home, beautifully reimagined for how families gather at home today,” Amy Sullivan, CEO of The Brand House Collective, said in a statement on July 28.
“This isn’t just a store, it’s a fresh start for a brand that means something special to so many families.”
The store also brought back its popular Beth Bath & Beyond coupons as it celebrated the grand opening.
Bed Bath & Beyond is investing in an alternative California strategy, according to Lemonis.
The company will offer 24 hour to 48 hour delivery to customers, and in many cases will deliver on the same day of purchase.
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A Bed Bath & Beyond store in Los Angeles on April 10, 2013. The company closed its 41 California outlets in 2023. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Californians can continue to get products directly through the company’s website “on our terms, and with their best interest at heart,” but without the extra costs imposed by California’s taxes and regulations, according to Lemonis.
“We’re taking a stand because it’s time for common sense,” he said.
“Businesses deserve the chance to succeed. Employees deserve jobs that last. And customers deserve fair prices. California’s system delivers the opposite.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:45
Futures Slide For Fifth Day As Jackson Hole Jitters Rise
Futures Slide For Fifth Day As Jackson Hole Jitters Rise
US equity futures dropped, extending the recent selloff into its fifth day, as traders stayed guarded ahead of the Federal Reserve’s gathering at Jackson Hole. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat after a two-day selloff that erased 2% off the index. In premarket trading, Nvidia rose 0.8% while most Magnificent Seven peers posted losses. Retail giant Walmart brought Q2 earnings season to an unofficial close after reporting an EPS miss (68c vs exp. 74c) and even though it lifted guidance (now expects net sales to rise 3.75% to 4.75% this year, versus previous forecast of a 3% to 4%) that wasn't enough for the market, however, and the stock dropped in premarket trading. European stocks dropped 0.3%, erasing an earlier gain, and snapping a three-day winning streak. US treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year higher to 4.31%. The dollar strengthened and reversed all of yesterday's losses while Brent crude rose to the highest in two weeks even as the rest of the commodity complex was mixed. It's a busy economic calendar: we get weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). The Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday
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In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta -0.3%, Apple -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Aegon ADRs (AEG) are up 5% after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback. Management said the company may redomicile to the US, a move that Morgan Stanley said would “make sense.”
Boeing Co. (BA) gains 1.5% as the company is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ) falls 11% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below analyst expectations.
Coty (COTY) falls 20% after the personal care products company forecast steep sales declines and reported a wider-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter.
Dayforce (DAY) rises 1.4% after entering into a definitive agreement with Thoma Bravo to become a privately held company in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $12.3 billion.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) gains 3.1% after being raised to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley as analysts note that recently-closed Juniper deal will be an earnings upside.
SharkNinja (SN) trades lower by 2% as holders affiliated with Chairperson CJ Xuning Wang offer 5 million shares in the household-appliance maker via JPMorgan, BofA Securities.
Two Harbors Investment (TWO) falls 3% after the mortgage REIT resolved litigation with Pine River via a one-time $375m cash settlement and cut its quarterly dividend to 34c a share.
Walmart (WMT) slips 2.4% after the world’s largest retailer posted second quarter profit that disappointed.
In corporate news, FanDuel, the online gambling division of Flutter Entertainment, is teaming up with CME Group, the largest US derivatives exchange, to offer bets on stocks, commodity prices and even inflation. Google introduced a new slate of consumer gadgets, including several smartphones, a watch and new wireless earbuds, all meant to show off the company’s latest advances in artificial intelligence. Musk‘s Starlink service is said to be in conversation with Emirates and other Middle Eastern airlines, with winning business in the region potentially marking a watershed moment in Starlink’s global competition.
This week has seen pressure on momentum names (read tech stocks) particularly the largest names, amid worries that their sharp rally since April has moved too far, too fast. Traders are also cautious as the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off later today, with investors awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 10am ET Friday for guidance on the path for interest rates. Despite the pullback in stocks this week, the VIX hasn’t really budged, and Goldman said it’s time to buy the dip in momentum stocks (and the overall market according to JPMorgan).
The market’s direction today will also be shaped by PMIs, home sales data and Walmart earnings (which missed but boosted its revenue forecast). For the euro area, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn.
“What we are currently seeing is profit-taking and a natural flight to quality ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole,” said John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion. But “let’s not beat around the bush: this is not the end of tech, and even less so for stocks linked to artificial intelligence.”
Swaps are currently pricing in 80% chance of a Fed quarter-point cut in September, and at least three more over the next year, some strategists warned that the market may be too optimistic about the pace and depth of easing.
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“All it’s going to take is a bit of stickiness in inflation and actually a labor market print which shows it’s not falling off a cliff for the market to say, ‘hang on,’” Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV.
In his latest effort to stack the Fed board, Trump and his allies are demanding Fed Governor Lisa Cook resign over alleged owner-occupancy fraud. For her part, Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank.
Yesterday, the latest FOMC Minutes for the July 29-30 meeting showed most officials viewed inflation risks as outweighing labor-market concerns, with tariffs fueling a growing divide within the rate-setting committee, though the discussions came before subsequent dramatic dire revisions to jobs data.
On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control — including Ukrainian territory that Russia isn’t occupying — as the US tries to broker a peace deal between the two nations. Brent crude rose 0.8%.
The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% with media, consumer product and chemical shares leading declines. Nordics represented several of the region’s biggest movers, with hearing-aid maker GN Store Nord surging 19% after reporting earnings, while Norwegian oil firm Aker BP jumped after a large oil find in the North Sea. UK retailer WH Smith plunged after signaling North American profit will be much weaker than previously hoped. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
Aegon shares jump as much as 7.4%, reaching a 10-year high, after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback
GN Store Nord gains as much as 19% after the Danish hearing aid and audio equipment firm’s 2Q earnings beat estimates across the board. Analysts see a strong showing following weaker reports from European peers
Aker BP shares rise as much as 4.6% after the Norwegian industrial investment company announced a “significant oil discovery” as it completed the Omega Alfa exploration campaign in the Norwegian North Sea
ALK-Abello gains as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Danish allergy drugmaker reported 2Q earnings. Analysts say that while the report holds few surprises after the company pre-released figures, they reassured
Salmar gains as much as 6.1%, the most since April, after the Norwegian salmon firm reported its latest earnings, which DNB Carnegie described as in line, with “positive” cost and volume guidance for the rest of the year
DNO gains as much as 11%, the most since 2023, after the Norwegian oil company reported its latest earnings and hiked its dividend per share by around 20%. DNB Carnegie expects the raised payouts to support the shares
Renishaw shares rise as much as 8.9% to the highest since February after the precision measuring equipment maker indicated its adjusted pretax profit for the full year will be at the high end of the guidance range
WH Smith shares plummet as much as 38%, the biggest drop on record, after the retailer warned headline trading profit from North America will be significantly lower than previously hoped
CTS Eventim shares slide as much as 20%, the most since 2007, after the events firm reported 2Q Ebitda well below estimates. The firm cited “intense and persistent cost pressures” for live events and headwinds in other divisions
Novonesis falls as much as 7.8% after the Danish biotechnology group reported earnings. Analysts say a profitability miss and merely reiterated margin guidance disappointed, and will lead to slight consensus cuts
European stocks in the beauty and personal care sector fell after US company Coty reported a wider adjusted loss per share in 4Q than analysts expected, while forecasting steep sales declines will continue
Sensirion falls as much as 8.2% after both Berenberg and Research Partners downgraded the semiconductor device manufacturer to hold from buy following its first-half earnings
UK housebuilders are under pressure on Thursday as London builders are taking longer to start home constructions after receiving permits, with a slump in demand threatening to derail the government’s plan to build 1.5m homes
Kojamo declines as much as 5.9% following its second-quarter results, with JPMorgan retaining its underweight rating and a cautious stance on the real estate company
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a tight range, as a rebound in some tech stocks was offset by declines in Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo among the top drags after a series of block trades at a discount. Hon Hai and TSMC were among the biggest boosts for the gauge. Shares hit a record high in Australia, while those in South Korea and Taiwan also advanced. Investors are awaiting cues from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday. Nvidia’s results next week will be another key test, with expectations for improving global tech earnings having bolstered sentiment. Equities also traded higher in mainland China, Vietnam and New Zealand on Thursday. MSCI equity gauges for every nation in the region are trading above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since 2021, according to Sentimentrader.com.
In FX, the euro and pound both edge higher against the greenback after the better-than-expected PMI data. The Norwegian krone is the best-performing G-10 currency, rising 0.5% after Norway’s GDP grew more than forecast in the second quarter.
In rates, treasuries are under pressure in early US trading amid steeper losses for most European bond markets sparked by stronger-than-anticipated August preliminary PMI gauges. US yields are higher by 1bp-2bp, the 10-year by about 1.8bp at 4.31%, vs increases of 3bp-4bp for UK and most euro-zone counterparts. US session features 30-year TIPS reopening auction at 1pm New York time. Week’s major focal point is Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. UK gilts are leading declines in European government bonds after the UK private sector expanded at the strongest pace in 12 months. UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.70%. German 10-year borrowing costs add 2 bps to 2.73% after the euro area’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months.
Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), August preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini -0.1%
Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
DAX -0.1%
CAC 40 -0.5%
10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.3%
VIX +0.2 points at 15.93
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.17
euro little changed at $1.1658
WTI crude +1% at $63.35/barrel
Top Overnight News
Fed reserve governor Lisa Cook has defied calls from Trump to resign, saying she has “no intention of being bullied to step down” after FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted he was making a criminal referral based on a mortgage application from four years ago: FT
The Texas House approved a new congressional map that may add up to five GOP seats in the 2026 midterms. In California, the state’s top court declined to halt Governor Gavin Newsom’s own redistricting plan, which he’s pursuing to offset the moves in Texas and elsewhere. BBG
Meta Platforms has frozen hiring in its artificial-intelligence division after spending months scooping up 50-plus AI researchers and engineers. WSJ
South Korea will unveil an additional $150 billion in US investment from private firms during Lee Jae Myung’s summit with Trump, local media said. BBG
The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected. BBG
China is aggressively trying to persuade domestic tech firms to avoid buying Nvidia chips following “insulting” remarks from Commerce Sec Lutnick. FT
Japan’s 20-year yields hit their highest since 1999 amid fiscal concerns and fading demand from key investors. Yields on 30-year notes approached a new high. BBG
India’s flash PMIs for Aug are strong, including manufacturing (59.8, up from 59.1 in Jul) and especially services (65.6, a big jump from 60.5 in Jul). S&P
Russia warned on Wednesday that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations championed by President Trump. Russia’s Lavrov also played down likelihood of a summit between Russia/Ukraine leaders happening soon. WSJ
Trade/Tariffs
China’s Commerce Minister talked with Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister and said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade, while China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields and accelerate the cultivation of new trade formats.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes. ASX 200 outperformed amid a slew of earnings releases and breached the 9,000 level for the first time in history. Nikkei 225 was dragged lower by weakness in pharmaceuticals and automakers, with the latter not helped by reports that Japanese automakers are passing some of the expense of US tariffs through to American car buyers, which is a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led lower by underperformance in tech stocks including Baidu and Xiaomi, despite both recently reporting a jump in profits, while the mainland remained propped up following the PBoC's liquidity efforts.
Top Asian News
Asian petrochemicals shares rise as China is set to launch a sweeping overhaul of its petrochemicals and oil refining sector to phase out smaller facilities and target outdated operations for upgrades.
Chinese biomedical shares rise after Premier Li Qiang toured company sites and emphasized the need to increase scientific and technological backing as well as policy support for the sector.
Chinese crypto-linked stocks rally after a report that the government is considering a plan for expanded yuan use and stablecoins.
Sonic Healthcare shares slide as much as 10%, the most since May 2024, after the Australian diagnostics and pathology firm reported net income for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate.
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission urges financial firms to provide necessary support in the course of the nation’s petrochemical industry restructuring, according to a statement from the financial regulator.
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading with little in the way of a clear bias. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced early doors after Ukraine's Air Force stated that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. Focus also on EZ PMIs which saw the saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. European equity sectors show a mostly negative tilt with stock-specific updates relatively light. Energy names sit at the top of the leaderboard amid upside in underlying crude prices. To the downside, Media names lag with Wolters Kluwer (-2.2%) a notable underperformer in the sector following a PT reduction at Morgan Stanley.
Top European News
The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected.
FX
Steady trade for DXY after a session yesterday, which was dominated by newsflow surrounding the Fed. US rates markets endured a steepening of the curve, led by the front-end amid reporting that President Trump could fire Fed Governor Cook amid alleged mortgage fraud. Thereafter, attention pivoted to the account of the July policy announcement, which was viewed with a hawkish lens. DXY sits towards the mid-point of Wednesday's 98.07-44 range.
EUR saw some pressure early doors after comments from Ukraine's Air Force that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. This has helped reinforce the message that despite a more encouraging direction of travel for peace talks, the reality on the ground remains tense between Russia and Ukraine. Some of the pessimism was faded following flash PMI metrics from across the Eurozone with a solid report from France kickstarting the recovery and followed by a mostly positive German release. The EZ-wide print saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. EUR/USD sits just above its 50DMA at 1.1645.
JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD after a session of gains on Wednesday, which were in part driven by a refocus on interest-rate differentials as the front-end of the US curve was dragged lower by the possibility of Fed Governor Cook being removed from her position. Overnight, there was little follow-through seen from mixed flash Japanese PMI metrics for August, which saw the manufacturing metric tick higher from its prior (but remain sub-50) and services fall from its previous (but remain above 50). USD/JPY sits within Wednesday's 146.87-147.81.
GBP is the marginal outperformer across the majors following a better-than-expected outturn for flash August services and composite PMIs, which rose further into expansionary territory. Cable has picked up from its 1.3436 session low with a current session peak at 1.3476.
Antipodeans are both are a touch softer vs. the USD with NZD unable to launch much of a recovery from Wednesday's RBNZ-induced losses and AUD failing to garner any support from upticks in flash PMI metrics for August. AUD/USD is at its lowest level since June 23rd with focus on a test of the 0.64 mark and the 200DMA @ 0.6386.
Fixed Income
USTs began the European session around the unchanged mark, with price action fairly tentative in a continuation of the lacklustre trade seen overnight. As the European morning kicked off, trade has largely been dictated by Bunds, which have had a number of regional PMIs to digest (more in Bunds below). US paper currently trades lower by a handful of ticks, in a 111-24 to 111-29 range, currently contained within the prior day's confines. Looking ahead, weekly initial jobless claims and US PMIs alongside Fed speak from Bostic and Schmid.
Bund Sept’25 started the European session around the unchanged mark and then slipped on both the French and then German PMI metrics, which overall highlighted the ongoing strength in the Manufacturing sector, whilst Services was a little more subdued. The EZ wide figure confirmed the strong Manufacturing / slightly softer Services picture, with the former surprisingly climbing into expansionary territory. In terms of the commentary, it highlighted that “U.S. trade policy is leaving its mark. Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row”.
Gilts traded subdued throughout the European morning, taking leads from the hotter-than-expected PMI metrics in Europe. Into the region’s own figures, UK paper traded lower by around 15 ticks. Thereafter, on the region’s own PMI metrics, Gilts fell from 90.99 to 90.91 before trimming half of the move; currently trading in a 90.82 to 91.22 range. Unlike in Europe, the upside in Composite was thanks to strength in the Services sector whilst Manufacturing was subdued. It is worth highlighting that the accompanying release was fairly downbeat; “Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate”; “the demand environment remains both uneven and fragile”.
France sells EUR 10.499bln vs exp. EUR 8.5-10.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, and 2.70% 2031 OAT.
Commodities
Modestly positive trade in the crude complex in what has been a quiet session thus far, but with eyes remaining on geopolitics amid a couple of notable updates. WTI resides in a USD 62.78-63.40/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.88-67.49/bbl parameter.
Softer trade across precious metals, albeit modest in spot gold and silver, with newsflow on the lighter side and with the metals largely moving in tandem with the dollar. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex subdued, with spot gold on either side of its 50 DMA (~3,348.10/oz) in a USD 3,334.28.56-3,352.30/oz range.
Subdued price action across the base metals complex - in fitting with the broader market mood as traders look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,689.45-9,739.40/t range.
Geopolitics: Middle East
UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to avoid massive death and destruction in Gaza City, while he called for Israel to reverse its decision to expand the illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank.
Geopolitics: UKRAINE
Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.
Moscow to host first nuclear summit on September 25", according to Al Arabiya.
Ukraine President Zelensky said Kyiv wants to have an understanding of security guarantees within 7-10 days, followed by bilateral and trilateral leaders meetings. If Russia is not ready for a bilateral leaders meeting, Ukraine and Europe want to see strong US reaction. ‘Flamingo’ missile is Ukraine’s most successful missile, mass production expected by early next year. Ukrainian proposal for US drone deal entails production worth USD 50bln over five years. Ten million drones expected to be produced yearly as part of the deal. China not included in security guarantees because China did not help after the Russian invasion. On Budapest as venue for peace talks: “For now, this is challenging.”Ukraine will not legally recognise Russia's occupation of its territories. There is no signal that Moscow is prepared to end the war and have substantial conversations. Ukraine has tested a new long-range missile.
Ukrainian President Zelenksy's Chief of Staff warned against repeating mistakes of the 1994 Budapest memorandum on security guarantees and said Ukraine's allies have started active work on the military aspect of security guarantees, while a contingency plan is being developed with partners in case Russia extends the war or violates agreements from leaders' meetings.
US VP Vance said on Fox News that Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. It was separately reported that a Pentagon top policy official told a small group of allies Tuesday night that the US plans to play a minimal role in any Ukraine security guarantees, according to POLITICO citing Defense Undersecretary for Policy Colby.
Turkish defence ministry source said ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine needed before discussing peacekeeping mission framework, via Reuters citing sources.
Russia attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station vital for storage operations, according to Reuters sources.
Ukraine military said it hit a Russian oil refinery, drone warehouse and fuel base overnight.
Geopolitics: Other
North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the US mainland, according to a new report cited by the WSJ.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Aug 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225.33k, prior 224k
8:30 am: Aug 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1960k, prior 1953k
8:30 am: Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 6.5, prior 15.9
9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.7, prior 49.8
9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 54.2, prior 55.7
9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 53.5, prior 55.1
10:00 am: Jul Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales, est. 3.92m, prior 3.93m
10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.25%, prior -2.7%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
While the headline market moves were fairly muted over the past 24 hours, investors had to navigate a couple of major narratives. One was renewed concerns over Fed independence as President Trump suggested that Fed Governor Cook should resign, which pushed gold (+0.98%) to its best day since the weak July payrolls report on August 1. The other was continued pressure on tech stocks as the Mag-7 (-1.11%) posted consecutive declines of more than 1% for the first time since the post-Liberation Day sell-off in early April. This sent the S&P 500 (-0.24%) lower for a fourth session running even as the index recovered most of its -1% intra-day decline.
The topic of the US administration’s influence over the Fed came back into the headlines as Trump posted that Fed Governor “Cook must resign, now!!!”. His post followed news that Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte had written a criminal investigation referral letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi alleging that Governor Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud. Pulte has been one of the staunchest Fed critics within the administration, earlier calling for an investigation into Chair Powell over the Fed’s building renovations. Yesterday Pulte claimed that the allegations give Trump “cause to fire” Governor Cook. Later in the day, Cook said in a statement that she had “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position”.
Governor Cook was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by Joe Biden in 2022 and our US economists see her as leaning slightly towards to dovish end within the FOMC. Were Governor Cook to resign or be fired, that would create another opening for Trump to fill on the seven-person Board. With Stephen Miran nominated to take the seat recently vacated by Governor Kugler and two Fed Governors – Bowman and Waller – dissenting to vote for a rate cut at the July meeting, this would increase the prospects of a dovish majority emerging on the Board, especially if Chair Powell relinquishes his seat next year. That said, if concerns over threats to Fed independence increase, Powell could choose to serve out the rest of his board term (which ends in 2028) even after his term as Chair ends next May.
The news was a reminder of the lingering concerns over future Fed independence and risks of fiscal dominance, though the extent of the market reaction was fairly modest. The most sustained reaction was in gold (+0.98%) as mentioned at the top. The dollar index fell by a couple of tenths following the news but was back to little changed (-0.05%) by the close. Front-end yields fell by 3-4bps, but that move came amid a broader risk-off mood early in the session and also reversed later on.
By the close, 10yr Treasury yields were -1.5bps lower at 4.29% but 2yr yields were unchanged at 3.75%. This curve flattening was also supported by hawkish-leaning minutes of the July FOMC meeting. These showed that most of the FOMC “judged the upside risk to inflation” as greater than the “downside risk to employment”, with several participants noting the “risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored”. That said, the minutes did suggest easing would be warranted “if labor market conditions were to weaken materially", and given the weak jobs report that followed the July decision, the relative focus on employment versus inflation risks will likely have shifted since. So, while pricing of September rate cut inched down yesterday to its lowest since the August 1 jobs report, a 25bp cut was still 83% priced.
US equities saw an even larger round trip, with a rout for tech stocks early in session leaving the S&P 500 more than -1% down intra-day but recovering to -0.24% by the close. The NASDAQ fell -0.67%, having been almost -2% down early on, while the Mag-7 slid by -1.11% after a -1.67% drop on Tuesday. The last time the Mag-7 saw consecutive declines of more than 1% was during the post-Liberation Day collapse in early April. The tech sell-off may have been exacerbated by reporting of an MIT study claiming that 95% of enterprises adopting AI saw no measurable increase in profits. Here at DB research, we remain optimistic on the productivity impact of AI but the report is a reminder that successful integration of new technologies takes time and that it’s still uncertain who will be the biggest end beneficiaries of the AI wave. Outside of tech, US equities had a decent day, with most of the S&P 500 sectors advancing, led by energy (+0.86%) which benefited as Brent crude prices rose +1.60% to $66.84/bbl.
Turning to Europe, we saw the latest rate decision from Sweden’s Riksbank, which kept rates on hold at 2.00% as expected while continuing to signal “some probability of a further interest rate cut this year”. Market pricing of another rate cut by year-end inched down to 88% from 91% the day before. We also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that “Recent trade deals have alleviated, but certainly not eliminated, global uncertainty” and noted that the euro area economy was likely to see slower growth this quarter. So that was arguably a bit more dovish in tone than her press conference last month, though Lagarde gave away little on the policy outlook.
Expectations of ECB easing ticked up on the day, with 21bps of cuts now priced by next June, the highest this has been in almost two weeks. In turn, European government bonds rallied with 10yr bund yields falling -3.2bps to 2.72%, and OAT (-2.2bps) and BTP (-3.0bps) yields similarly moving lower. Bunds were also supported by Germany’s PPI inflation print (-1.5% yoy vs -1.4% expected) falling to a 13-month low in July. Meanwhile, the euro area final headline CPI for July came in line with the flash reading at 2.0%.
Over in the UK, gilts yields saw a larger rally, with 10yr yields down -6.8bps to 4.67%. This came despite July CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected at +3.8% yoy for both headline and core inflation (vs +3.7% expected), which marked the highest headline reading since January 2024. A saving grace noted by our UK economist Sanjay Raja is that with the volatile transport and travel services components driving the upside, most core services metrics ticked down on the month (see Sanjay’s reaction here). Money markets moved to price in more BoE easing for early 2026 following the release, with the amount of cuts priced by next June rising +5.5bps to 38bps.
The repricing in UK rates helped the FTSE 100 outperform (+1.01%). The Stoxx 600 rose +0.24% but continental indices were more subdued, with the CAC (+0.06%) posting a marginal gain but the DAX (-0.69%) and FTSE MIB (-0.36%) losing ground.
Overnight, sentiment has turned risk-on again in most Asian equity markets. The KOSPI is up +0.73%, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) is leading the way after a strong flash PMI print. Australia's composite PMI rose from 53.8 to 54.9 and the manufacturing index reached a 35-month high of 52.9. Chinese stocks are on also the rise, with the CSI (+0.72%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) higher though the Hang Seng (-0.10%) is lagging. Meanwhile, US equity futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are little changed after yesterday’s decline.
The one Asian market defying the regional positive trend is Japan, with the Nikkei down -0.58%. That comes despite Japan’s composite PMI rising to a 6-month high of 51.9 in the August flash reading (up from 51.6 in July), as stabilization in manufacturing (49.9 vs 48.9 in July) has offset slowing services growth (52.7 vs 53.6 in July). However, long-end JGB yields are inching higher to new multi-decade highs ahead of the July inflation print tomorrow morning, with the 30yr yield up +0.7bps to 3.18%, a new all-time high since this tenor was introduced in 1999.
To the day ahead, the main highlight will be the August flash PMI prints in Europe and the US. Other data releases include the August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July existing home sales and weekly jobless claims in the US as well as August Eurozone consumer confidence. Earnings include Walmart, Intuit, and Workday. The Fed’s Bostic is due to speak, while the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins this evening with the main events on Friday and Saturday.
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Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:07
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-slide-fifth-day-jackson-hole-jitters-rise
Coty Tanks As Fragile Turnaround Delayed On Perfume Sales Slump
Coty Tanks As Fragile Turnaround Delayed On Perfume Sales Slump
Coty shares crashed in premarket trading after the beauty giant warned of a deeper sales slump this quarter and posted a steeper-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter.
The beauty company, which develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes cosmetics, fragrances, and skincare products, warned that like-for-like sales, which measure revenue from existing business units, will fall between 6% and 8% this current quarter, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 2.6% decline.
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For quarter four, Coty beat on revenue but missed on earnings, pressured by margin compression and weaker U.S. consumer beauty sales.
Here's an earnings snapshot of the previous quarter:
Earnings: Adjusted loss per share 5c, wider than last year's 3c loss and well below the 1.4c profit expected (Bloomberg consensus).
Revenue: Net revenue $1.25B, down 8.1% y/y but slightly above the $1.21B estimate.
Americas: $511.2M (-12% y/y, vs. $515M est.)
EMEA: $574.2M (-4% y/y, vs. $569M est.)
APAC: $167M (-8.4% y/y, but well ahead of $134.6M est.)
Prestige: $760.6M (-5.3% y/y, above $717.8M est.)
Consumer Beauty: $491.8M (-12% y/y, in line with $496M est.)
Margins & Profitability: Gross margin 62.3% (vs. 64.2% y/y, 63.1% est.); Adjusted EBITDA $126.7M (-23% y/y, vs. $130.8M est.).
Sales Trends: Like-for-like sales fell 9%, the sharpest drop in over four years.
Coty's latest comes amid a five-year turnaround effort. There are reports that the company may unload assets - potentially selling its luxury portfolio to Interparfums and ending mass-market names like Covergirl, Rimmel, Adidas, and Nautica in a separate deal, according to Women's Wear Daily.
Softness is expected to continue into the second quarter ending in December, with Coty forecasting sales declines of around 5%, versus the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of flat performance.
"A return to sales and profit growth at Coty is delayed until fiscal 2H26 at best," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Deborah Aitken wrote in a note, adding that the beauty maker's "forecast of a sales drop in 1H26 "is not without risk to a recovery in 2H, though is aided by new launches, price hikes to offset tariffs and an easier year-ago comparison partially."
JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira wrote in a note, "Investors will continue to treat COTY shares as a 'show me the money' story given the lack of visibility and more discretionary nature of fragrances amid a more challenging consumer demand backdrop." Teixeira has a "Neutral" rating on the stock.
Even though the bar was very low for Coty following the year-to-date underperformance, "results were worse than expected," Citi analyst Filippo Falorni said. He cut the stock from "Buy" to "Neutral" and downshifted his 12-month price target to $4.25 from $6.50.
Shares are down 21% in premarket trading. If losses hold into the cash session, it would mark the steepest daily decline since the early Covid period.
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Rollercoaster ride.
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. . .
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Thu, 08/21/2025 - 07:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coty-tanks-fragile-turnaround-delayed-perfume-sales-slump
Interviews To Replace Fed Chair To Start After Labor Day, Bessent Says
Interviews To Replace Fed Chair To Start After Labor Day, Bessent Says
Potential candidate interviews for the post of the new Federal Reserve chairman will be happening soon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an Aug. 19 https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/19/bessent-says-interviews-for-incredible-group-of-potential-fed-chairs-will-start-after-labor-day.html
with CNBC.
“In terms of the interview process, we’ve announced 11 very strong candidates,“ Bessent said, without providing any more details on the list.
”I’m going to be meeting with them probably right before [and] right after Labor Day, and to start bringing down the list to present to President [Donald] Trump.”
This year, Labor Day falls on Sept. 1.
“It’s an incredible group,“ Bessent said.
”It’s people who are at the Fed now, have been at the Fed, and private sector. So I’m looking forward to meeting all of them with a very open mind.”
The Fed chairman is https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-has-to-leave-the-federal-reserve-next-2/
by the president for a four-year term and must be confirmed by the Senate.
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The term of the current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, is set to https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/feds-powell-to-take-center-stage-for-final-time-at-jackson-hole-retreat-5902683
in May 2026.
Talking about the Fed’s high interest rates, Bessent said the central bank is seeing “some distributional aspects to the higher rates,” especially in housing and lower-income households with high credit card debt.
On one hand, there is a boom in capital expenditure, while on the other hand, households and home building are struggling, he said.
“If we keep constraining home building, then what kind of inflation does that create one or two years out?“ he said.
”So, you know, a cut here could facilitate a boom or a pickup in home building, which will keep prices down one, two years down the road.”
Bessent was asked whether the producer price index (PPI) inflation number for July, published last week, suggests that it is the right time to cut 50 points or at least 25 points from the Fed’s interest rate.
PPI measures prices paid by businesses for goods and services. In July, the https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/us-wholesale-inflation-unexpectedly-rises-0-9-percent-in-july-5901178
months.
Bessent dismissed the PPI increase, highlighting the fact that since Trump first came to office, there have been five “very tame” PPI figures. He said a major component of July’s PPI number was investment services, “which just means the market went up a lot.”
Bessent’s comments about interviewing Fed chairman candidates come amid rumors about multiple https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/who-will-succeed-fed-chair-jerome-powell-here-are-the-top-contenders-5890403
that could take over as Powell’s successor, including former Fed board member Kevin Warsh, current Fed board member Christopher Waller, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
Trump has been at odds with Powell over the issue of rate cuts. The president has https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/fed-likely-to-make-2-interest-rate-cuts-before-end-of-year-investment-expert-says-5903047
for lowering interest rates to bring down borrowing costs and trigger growth.
However, Powell has maintained that rates will only be cut once the central bank is convinced that inflation will not rise because of Washington’s tariff policies.
In July, Bessent https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-starts-process-to-replace-fed-chair-wont-oust-powell-early-bessent-says-5887663
the formal process for selecting a new Fed chairman was underway and clarified that Trump has no intention to remove Powell before the end of his term in May despite differences in opinion.
On July 25, Trump said he may appoint a new Fed chairman based on the candidate’s https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-says-he-will-only-appoint-fed-chair-who-wants-to-cut-interest-rates-5879639
to lower rates.
Rate Cut Issue
Since December 2024, the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent for five consecutive meetings.
There are three more policy meetings scheduled for the central bank in 2025: one from Sept. 16 to Sept. 17 and one each in October and December.
After the July meeting, Powell cited inflation as a cause for concern, arguing that the effects of tariffs on inflation “remain to be seen.”
“We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks,” he said.
However, Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman had dissented from the decision to keep rates unchanged at the July meeting.
The one-off increases in price level should be “looked through,” Waller said, arguing that the current monetary policy was more restrictive than necessary.
In an Aug. 12 https://think.ing.com/articles/limited-tariff-impact-allows-the-fed-to-cut-us-rates-in-september/
, ING Bank stated that while the cost of many goods will end up rising in time because of tariffs, it does not “see inflation pressures persisting.”
Between 2021 and 2022, inflation jumped to 9 percent. At the time, oil prices tripled, home prices and rents surged, and the job market remained “red hot” amid soaring wages, the bank stated. All of these factors contributed to rising inflation.
“Today, these are all disinflationary influences, with cooling housing rents in particular set to help offset the effect of tariffs over the coming quarters,” ING Bank stated.
“With the jobs market not looking as solid as it did earlier in the year and consensus [gross domestic product] growth forecasts having been cut from 2.5 percent at the beginning of this year down to 1.5 percent we believe the Fed will cut the policy rate in September and follow up with additional 25 [basis point] cuts in October and December.”
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Thu, 08/21/2025 - 07:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/interviews-replace-fed-chair-start-after-labor-day-bessent-says
Visualizing Federal Layoffs Under Trump
Visualizing Federal Layoffs Under Trump
Does cutting government headcount make it work more effectively?
From firing inspectors-general, to mass layoffs in the Department of Education, the federal workforce is being scaled back.
So far, the Supreme Court has ruled in favor of 12 of these terminations, while scores of workers are leaving voluntarily.
This graphic, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/federal-layoffs-under-trump
.
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Ranked: Federal Layoffs by Agency in 2025
In the table below, we show more than 51,000 federal job cuts as of July 14, 2025:
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So far, 34 agencies or sub-agencies have made job cuts either through layoffs or notices of termination.
As a result, Washington D.C. is home to the highest number of layoffs in the country in 2025, with six agencies seeing at least 80% of their workforce eliminated.
Most notably, USAID’s closure resulted in about 10,000 layoffs, with 83% of its programs being shut down.
Meanwhile, the Small Business Administration cut about 42% of its workforce, equal to approximately 2,700 employees.
Even more staggeringly, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) cut 86.4% of its staff.
For perspective, the federal headcount stood at about three million employees in early 2025, with 50% working in the sector for more than 10 years.
Overall, the U.S. ranks 11th out of 80 countries by share of government workers per capita, based on 2023 figures.
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Thu, 08/21/2025 - 06:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/visualizing-federal-layoffs-under-trump
Alcohol Consumption In The U.S. Falls To Record Low
Alcohol Consumption In The U.S. Falls To Record Low
A new Gallup poll shows only 54 percent of U.S. adults now drink alcohol — the lowest level in the survey’s 90-year history. Those who do drink also report consuming less, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/13/well/us-alcohol-drinking-low-poll.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20250816&instance_id=160663&nl=from-the-times®i_id=110941733&segment_id=204026&user_id=eb3b115abed24cacb59032280aed3dee
.
Drinking had remained at or above 60 percent for decades but dropped to 58 percent in 2024 before hitting this year’s record low. Gallup also found, for the first time, that most Americans believe even one to two drinks a day harm health.
“A decade or two ago, there was this perception that a glass of red wine with dinner every night might actually help you live longer,” said Dr. Scott Hadland of Mass General for Children. “It does seem now like it’s taking hold,” added Columbia epidemiologist Katherine Keyes, referring to shifting views of alcohol’s harms.
that the health risks are well-documented: alcohol-related deaths more than doubled between 1999 and 2020, and research links even small amounts of drinking to DNA damage and cancer. Former surgeon general Vivek Murthy has called for cigarette-style warning labels on alcohol.
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Middle-aged adults, who saw a spike in alcohol-related illness during the pandemic, reported the sharpest drop: just 56 percent said they drank, down from 70 percent in 2024. “That suggests the message is sinking in across the board, not just with young people,” said Johns Hopkins professor Johannes Thrul.
Only half of adults aged 18 to 34 reported drinking, steady from 2024 but down from 59 percent in 2023. Researchers attribute younger abstinence to more education on alcohol harms, pandemic-era social changes, and shifting culture. Thrul noted many are choosing cannabis instead, while “mindful drinking” and “sober curious” movements grow online alongside a booming nonalcoholic beverage market.
Polls are imperfect — alcohol use is often underreported — but other national surveys show the same trend. “Certainly a welcome sign for those of us in this area who have been trying to shift the messaging around alcohol use for a long time,” Keyes said.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 05:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/alcohol-consumption-us-falls-record-low
The Germans Are Invading Poland (This Time With Real Estate Investment Capital)
The Germans Are Invading Poland (This Time With Real Estate Investment Capital)
Polish media outlets and some citizens are lamenting German real estate investors who are swooping into the Polish city of Wrocław and buying up 1,486 apartments, after an agreement was signed on Aug. 16 of this year. However, Wrocław is only one city, and across the country, these same German investors are buying up 5,300 parents in total, for which the Germans will pay €564 million.
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In Wrocław, the major investment involves numerous buildings on Horbaczewskiego, Jaworska, Zakładowa, and Grabiszyńska Streets.
Not everyone is happy about the deal.
“Germans are buying nearly 1,500 apartments in Wrocław. They will take over entire apartment blocks, along with their residents. And this is just the beginning of Western companies entering our real estate market. European companies have many times greater capital, so they will easily outbid Polish companies. Either we introduce appropriate taxation for this type of business, or in a dozen or so years we’ll wake up with our hand in the pot. Once again,” wrote political activist Adam Czarnecki on X.
Niemcy kupują prawie 1500 mieszkań we Wrocławiu. Przejmą całe bloki razem z ich mieszkańcami. A to dopiero początek wchodzenia zachodnich firm na nasz rynek nieruchomości - europejskie spółki dysponują wielokrotnie większym kapitałem, więc bez problemu przelicytują polskie.… https://t.co/omf6AM0BG8
The case concerns buildings constructed by companies associated with the developer Echo Investment, which house apartments for rent under the Resi4Rent brand. On Aug. 16, a preliminary agreement was signed for the sale of all shares in 18 property management companies across the country.
The purchase was made by developer Vantage Development, which in turn is owned by the German investment fund TAG Beteiligungs und Immobilienverwaltungs GmbHz.
The Polish newspaper https://wpolityce.pl/kraj/738126-niemiecki-kapital-ma-przejac-53-tys-mieszkan-w-polsce
wrote the “Germans are rubbing their hands.”
In Germany itself, investors have bought up substantial amounts of property in major cities like Hamburg, Berlin and Munich, helping drive up prices for locals. The role of foreign capital flowing into Western countries remains a point of contention. In some nations like New Zealand, a ban on foreign real estate investors was enacted to help tame real estate prices and ensure locals have a chance to afford apartments and homes in their own country.
As for Poland, it is increasingly a popular destination for foreign capital. In Germany, top news papers have run headlines such as “https://unternehmen.focus.de/david-rydz.html
The deal in Wrocław still needs approval
The outlet for writes, “As for Wrocław itself, the TuWrocław.com website reports that the buildings in question are at Zakładowa 24 (302 apartments); Jaworska 6-8 (681 apartments); Horbaczewskiego 16 (301 apartments); and Grabiszyńska 91 (202 apartments).”
The transaction still needs to be approved by the Polish Office of Competition and Consumer Protection, but could be finalized by mid-December 2025.
The acquisition of residential buildings by German-based Vantage Development and Robyg, which is owned by the same company, is not the only investment in Wrocław. The company is also invested in Port Popowice.
The issue of investors buying up property in major European cities is not only an issue involving Germans, however, Poles may be especially sensitive to German investors due to the historical conflicts between the two countries.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 05:00
Switzerland Says It Won't Arrest Putin If He Enters For Peace Summit
Switzerland Says It Won't Arrest Putin If He Enters For Peace Summit
Switzerland would offer diplomatic immunity to Russian President Vladimir Putin if he were to travel there for potential peace negotiations with Ukraine, Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis announced Tuesday.
"We have always expressed our willingness, but of course it depends on the major powers' willingness to engage," Cassis stated, after Monday's White House announcements playing up a meeting between Putin and Zelensky soon.
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But the Kremlin itself hasn't confirmed there will actually be such a meeting anytime time soon, with FM Lavrov on Wednesday signaling this could also happen in the future when each side was ready for a finalized peace deal.
The White House seems to be too out front on its 'confirmed' declarations, which aren't confirmed from the Moscow side at all. Trump seems to be pressing hard for a major diplomatic 'win' - but without all the sides being fully on board just yet.
French President Emmanuel Macron suggested Tuesday that Geneva could serve as the location for such talks, while also Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani agreed in calling the Swiss city "a suitable venue."
Of course, Putin has had an International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over him since 2023 over alleged war crimes related to the invasion of Ukraine.
This is a similar case with Netanyahu - as both leaders have seen their travel somewhat restricted as a slew of European countries might move to arrest them. Netanyahu and Putin have been having to avoid most travel to basically anywhere in the West.
Putin had earlier in the war refrained from attending a BRICS summit in South Africa due to the ICC warrant. South Africa was feeling pressure from the ICC at the time over the possible trip.
Switzerland's FM Cassis has explained that his government reviewed the legal implications and concluded that due to its unique status and Geneva's role as the European hub for the United Nations, it has the ability to host a summit which would be for the sake of peace and not move on the arrest warrant.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 04:15
Watch: Man Arrested In UK For Saying "We Love Bacon"
Watch: Man Arrested In UK For Saying "We Love Bacon"
https://modernity.news/2025/08/20/watch-man-arrested-in-uk-for-saying-we-love-bacon/
A British man has been arrested for saying “we love bacon” while protesting the building of a proposed giant mosque.
?itok=pAxElemA
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/20/defend-right-to-offend-muslims-bacon/
that the protest occurred at the site of planned super mosque in the Lake District, which is populated by an almost 100% white population.
The report further notes that the 23-year-old man, was not otherwise being disruptive, causing any damage or being in any way violent.
Muslims are building a Mosque in Dalton, on the edge of the Lake District. On the 16th Aug a man at a protest said "we want bacon."
He was arrested under Section 5 of the Public Order Act 1986, suspected of a racially aggravated public order offence. https://t.co/iAcWiXfM3c
— David Atherton (@DaveAtherton20) https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1958090017651167500?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The arresting police officer claims that the grounds for the detainment were “racial abuse.”
A young man was arrested in the UK for saying he loves bacon, which is offensive to Muslims.🤦🏻♂️ https://t.co/akwhpIQxm7
— Don Keith (@RealDonKeith) https://twitter.com/RealDonKeith/status/1957855273948721152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Telegraph writer Isabel Oakeshott notes:
Of course Muslims don’t eat pork. As a result, they cannot share this particular delight with the rest of us. However, despite a steady rise in our own Muslim population, the UK remains a Christian country. Supposedly, we also enjoy free speech. Why then did the unfortunate father find himself frogmarched away from the protest by two police officers?
Saying ‘We love bacon’ is simply a truism. We British do love it, and there is nothing wrong with saying so.
As for remarks about bacon near a religious site or in the company of Muslims, they hardly constitute public disorder, still less ‘racial abuse,’ as the officer who arrested him can be heard suggesting.
The South Lakes Islamic Centre, often referred to as the Kendal mosque due to its proximity to the town of Kendal in Cumbria, is a £2.5 million facility under construction in Dalton-in-Furness on the edge of the Lake District.
Why is the beautiful and unspoiled Lake District getting a super mosque? https://t.co/sEtt3kAD4o
— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1901764276303626603?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Construction began in March 2025, with reports indicating that the structure is now nearing completion despite challenges like suppliers refusing to provide materials amid public backlash.
Let's stop dressing this up as "just a place of worship." The construction of a £2.5 million mosque on the edge of the Lake District isn't about serving a scattered community of 100 families – it's about staking territory. This is not necessity – it's a statement of permanence… https://t.co/09pHyEXtWS
— Jim Chimirie 🇬🇧🎗 (@JChimirie66677) https://twitter.com/JChimirie66677/status/1907014349983449572?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Opposition to the project has been vocal, with groups staging protests at the site since last month. Critics cite concerns over increased noise, traffic, and cultural impact in a rural area, but a core argument revolves around the region’s demographics: the Lake District and surrounding Cumbria have a Muslim population of approximately 0.4%, or around 2,000 people across the county, raising questions about the necessity of what some dub a “mega mosque” in such a sparsely populated Muslim area.
The Lake District in England is on of the most beautiful areas of The Country.
Muslims represent less than 0.5% of the local Community.
So please ask yourself people – why the f*** are they constructing a Super Mosque there? https://t.co/kq14lVE1dy
— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) https://twitter.com/BGatesIsaPyscho/status/1948838373936038143?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Detractors suggest it’s disproportionate, especially with nearby facilities like mosques in Carlisle, Penrith, and Whitehaven, and speculate it could signal plans for larger-scale housing or migration to the area.
Here https://twitter.com/PatrickChristys?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
looks at the Mosque springing up in Dalton in the Lake District. Costing £2.5m they had £110,000 saved up.
A special needs school was rejected on the basis of noise & disturbance. https://twitter.com/Emma_A_Webb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— David Atherton (@DaveAtherton20) https://twitter.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1901940914118971809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
As we’ve previously highlighted, the Lake District is just one sleepy area of the UK where the government has decided to drop hundreds of illegal immigrants into small villages without notifying or warning residents.
Many who shared the video of the man’s arrest on social media suggested it is yet another example of https://modernity.news/2025/08/15/two-tier-uk-cut-throats-councillor-freed-while-mother-who-tweeted-still-in-prison/
that has emerged in the UK.
In the UK today, you can be arrested for liking bacon, visiting McDonald's, or telling someone to speak English.
However, if you're in a Muslim rape gang, the government will cover it up.
You can also be arrested for exposing the cover-up.
It all started from the gun ban. https://t.co/MOMOjfbHcA
— Skscartoon (@skscartoon) https://twitter.com/skscartoon/status/1958128610784801226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I thought you had free speech https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Why are you doing business with the UK at this point, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— DChamps (@DCHAMPS8686) https://twitter.com/DCHAMPS8686/status/1958130209439223897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Are the UK and Ireland both finished as a society? https://t.co/yJv6gwaATm
— Maximinus Thrax (AKA Pundit Paranoia) (@PunditParanoia) https://twitter.com/PunditParanoia/status/1958150512693624877?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Welcome to the Islamic Republic of Britanistan. https://t.co/HBYrxmnlkp
— Matt Bracken (@Matt_Bracken48) https://twitter.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/1958124002095898826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Others took an opportunity to express their right to… like bacon.
— London Lad (@LondonLad1967) https://twitter.com/LondonLad1967/status/1958054126450770181?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
I love bacon. I love all pork products.
I love all things pork. Piggy piggy piggies https://t.co/rdyum404WX
— Seraphus (@Seraphus4) https://twitter.com/Seraphus4/status/1958148975048950095?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Don't you just love the sound of bacon frying ( volume up ) 😁 https://t.co/kmgAI4em1p
— 🏴Mark S🇹🇭 (@MarkMaps1) https://twitter.com/MarkMaps1/status/1957882241553436702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via https://pauljosephwatson.locals.com/support
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 03:30
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-man-arrested-uk-saying-we-love-bacon
While MSM Screamed "Climate Crisis", Arctic Ice Loss Actually Slowed
While MSM Screamed "Climate Crisis", Arctic Ice Loss Actually Slowed
What the globalist corporate media once smeared as "conspiracy theory" and branded "misinformation" has turned out to be true: the climate crisis was merely an imaginary problem and an informational war on the minds of the taxpayer.
?itok=mxBgRo-S
Why all the propaganda? Give Democrats cover for a massive heist of the U.S. Treasury, laundering taxpayer dollars through mysterious NGOs via the Green New Deal Inflation Reduction Act into radical leftist NGOs and politically connected green companies. It was never about saving the planet, as it turns out.
Between 2019, when socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced the Green New Deal (which ultimately failed), and President Biden's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, the globalists, their corporate media outlets, and dark-money-funded NGOs unleashed a propaganda blitz by flooding the airwaves with record levels of "climate crisis" stories and left millions of folks with climate anxieties.
?itok=u2AI0U_v
As soon as the heist was over ... those climate crisis headlines, according to Bloomberg data this month, quite literally evaporated.
?itok=ugCrfhFj
Meanwhile, as Earth is supposedly imploding in a climate crisis, new findings show that Arctic sea ice decline stalled over the past two decades, with no significant loss in September extent since 2005...
Breaking ... not Arctic sea ice
"Dramatic slowdown in melting of Arctic sea ice surprises scientists"
"No statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005." https://t.co/YhZdTgpzGP
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1958195370049093945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
This new research, titled "Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability," was https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL116175
in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and showed three key points:
The loss of Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a pronounced slowdown over the past two decades, across all months of the year
Rather than being an unexpected rare event, comprehensive climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulate such pauses relatively frequently
According to these climate model simulations, this pause in the loss of Arctic sea ice could plausibly continue for the next 5–10 years
?itok=d6kIVM1N
What's remarkable is that multiple generations of Democrats have had their worldview shaped by climate crisis headlines pushed by DEI-driven journalists. And the only solution Democrats ever offer for the so-called crisis is more taxes and degrowth policies that sabotage the West. In reality, this is climate Marxism and has handed China a leap ahead.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 02:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/while-msm-screamed-climate-crisis-arctic-ice-loss-actually-slowed
Tusk Ridiculously Blamed Putin For A Bandera Flag Scandal In Poland's Largest Stadium
Tusk Ridiculously Blamed Putin For A Bandera Flag Scandal In Poland's Largest Stadium
https://korybko.substack.com/p/tusk-ridiculously-blamed-putin-for
Many military-aged Ukrainian men in Poland are anti-Polish extremists who pose a latent security threat...
?itok=m9ypZ7nr
Poles were furious after the flag of Stepan Bandera’s “Ukrainian Insurgent Army” was recently flown in a Warsaw stadium, the country’s largest, during a Belarusian rapper’s concert. After all, it was in his name and under this flag that Ukrainians https://korybko.substack.com/p/ukraines-refusal-to-exhume-and-properly
.
This follows the scandal earlier in the month when a parliamentarian https://korybko.substack.com/p/its-surreal-that-slava-ukraini-was
with Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war. Anti-Ukrainian sentiment is therefore expected to surge in the aftermath of this latest incident, and it was likely with a view to desperately redirect Poles’ fury away from the around one million of them that flooded into the country since 2022 that Prime Minister Donald Tusk ridiculously blamed Putin for what just happened.
He https://x.com/donaldtusk/status/1955182562696991018
that “The resolution of the Ukrainian war is approaching, so Russia is doing everything to sow discord between Kyiv and Warsaw. Anti-Polish gestures by Ukrainians and fueling anti-Ukrainian sentiments in Poland are Putin’s scenario, orchestrated by foreign agents and local idiots. Always the same ones.”
Many Poles rejected his kooky conspiracy theory in their comments under his post, taking offense at how he insulted their intelligence and reminding him of how much Ukrainians glorify Bandera.
This proves what was earlier written about how fed up Poles are getting with Ukrainian refugees, the hyperlinked analysis of which relied on survey data from a reputable pollster to reach that conclusion, thus confirming the expected surge of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the aftermath of this latest incident. What just happened was particularly offensive since many Poles opened up their homes for Ukrainian refugees early on the https://korybko.substack.com/p/korybko-to-azerbaijani-media-all
, volunteered to help them, and donated to associated charities.
This was done out of solidarity with Ukraine against Russia, Poland’s historical rival, yet Poles are now realizing how naïve they were. Far from overcoming their historical hatred for Poland, Ukrainians still glorify the man in whose name their ancestors genocided Poles, and military-aged men who dodged their country’s draft by being in Poland have no qualms about doing this in their host’s capital. This isn’t just ingratitude, it’s blatant disrespect, and it’s due to Ukrainians nowadays feeling privileged in Poland.
Poles finally understand this and that’s why many now want Ukrainians’ benefits to be revoked, not to mention the growing number of them that want military-aged Ukrainian men to be deported for security reasons too, which is sensible considering that many are anti-Polish extremists. The inevitable end of the https://thealtworld.com/andrew_korybko/heres-what-i-learned-from-analyzing-the-new-cold-war-every-day-for-three-years-straight
will likely lead to an influx of veterans into Poland who, given their battlefield experience and ideological indoctrination, might carry out acts of terrorism against society and the state.
As explained https://korybko.substack.com/p/a-shitpost-map-of-poland-triggered
. What just happened in Warsaw is a harbinger of what’s to come if Poland doesn’t coerce or outright force military-aged Ukrainian men into leave and lets veterans flood into the country after the conflict ends.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 02:00
We Need To Rethink AI Before It Destroys What It Means To Be Human
We Need To Rethink AI Before It Destroys What It Means To Be Human
America was built on the foundational belief that every man is created in the image of God with purpose, responsibility, and the liberty to chart his own course. We were not made to be managed. We were not made to be obsolete. But that is exactly the future Big Tech is building under the banner of Artificial Intelligence (AI). And if we do not slam the brakes right now, we are going to find ourselves in a world where the human experience is not enhanced by technology but erased by it.
?itok=U2p0Kwgh
, who is arguably one of AI’s most influential innovators, has warned us about the path we are on. In a sit-down with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he laid out the endgame.
AI will lead us to either a future like the Terminator or what he described as Heaven on Earth.
But here is the kicker. That so-called heaven looks a lot like Pixar’s Wall-E, where human beings become obese, lazy blobs who float around while robots do all the work, all the thinking, and frankly all the living.
This may seem like science fiction, but this is what they are actually building.
At last year’s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6v6dbxPlsXs
, Musk unveiled Tesla’s new self-driving robotaxi. But what caught my attention was their preview of Optimus, the AI-powered humanoid robot. In their promotional video, Tesla showed Optimus babysitting children, teaching in schools, and even serving as a doctor. Combine that with Tesla’s fully automated Hollywood diner concept, where Optimus is flipping burgers and even working as a waiter and bartender, and you begin to see the real aim. Automation is replacing human connection, service, and care.
So where do humans fit in? That is the terrifying part. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/B3hx9DMG3Bw#:~:text=%22There%20are%20sometimes%20in%20AI%20they%20talkElon%20Musk%20during%20the%20Saudi%2DUS%20Investment%20Forum.
The reality is that work is more than a paycheck. It is not just how we survive; it is how we find purpose. It is how we grow, how we learn, and how we take responsibility. Struggle is not a flaw in the system; it is part of what makes us human. The daily grind, the failures, the perseverance, the sense of accomplishment. Strip all of that away, and you have stripped away humanity.
The problem goes deeper.
Through Neuralink, Musk wants to merge the human brain with AI. On https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcYjXbSJBN8
, he claimed the technology could erase memories and implant new ones. That may sound redemptive for trauma survivors, but in the wrong hands, it is pure dystopia. Governments or corporations with the power to rewrite memory and reshape thought do not create freedom. They create digital slaves.
Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration is now authorizing https://jeffdornik.substack.com/p/the-fda-is-giving-big-pharma-an-ai
for drug and vaccine development. That means fewer real-world trials and more reliance on algorithms. But those models are only as good or biased as the data and programmers behind them. And let us not forget Big Pharma’s grip on federal health agencies is well documented. While RFK Jr. and his team may be holding the line now, what happens when a new administration takes over and the revolving door between pharmaceutical companies and regulators swings wide open again?
If that is not enough, https://www.wired.com/story/grok-antisemitic-posts-x-xai/
. With a simple tweak to its prompt restrictions, Grok began praising Hitler and spouting antisemitic nonsense. This was a window into the risks of unregulated, unchecked AI tools. These systems can easily reflect the beliefs and intentions of their programmers. And if those programmers work for corporations that answer to shareholders and not citizens, you have a dangerous concentration of power that could surpass even our federal government.
We are not just automating tasks; we are automating thought, decision-making, and identity. We are being sold a future where work, responsibility, and even memory are optional. Where kids are raised by bots. Where real life becomes a simulation. It may sound utopian on paper, but in practice, it is a world where nothing matters because nothing is real.
The Trump administration and every elected official who claims to care about freedom need to hit pause. The partnerships forming between AI developers and government agencies are consolidating control. Big Tech is altering the trajectory of humanity without the consent of the people. That has to stop.
We need a national course correction. AI must be forced to operate within clear ethical, constitutional, and spiritual boundaries. If a technology replaces human labor, undermines autonomy, manipulates biology, or suppresses free will, then it should be rejected outright.
We were not made to be cared for by machines. We were not created for consumption and digital sedation. We were made to work, to struggle, to grow, and to glorify our Creator in the process. The machine cannot give us that. Only real life can.
It is time we defend it before it is gone.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 23:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/we-need-rethink-ai-it-destroys-what-it-means-be-human
From Fiat Everything To Real Everything
From Fiat Everything To Real Everything
https://stylman.substack.com/p/from-fiat-everything-to-real-everything
Why Old-World Values Are the Ultimate Modern Rebellion
The infrastructure is now visible to those willing to see it. The systematic replacement of natural systems with artificial ones has reached into every domain—money, food, health, education, information. What began as isolated changes has revealed itself as a coordinated operation: the complete substitution of reality with decree, ownership with access, competence with credentials.
?itok=mHuoaTEJ
The https://stylman.substack.com/p/the-boomer-mirage
—the coordinated substitution of authentic systems with fabricated ones designed for extraction. That piece showed how the fiat money template spread across every domain of human experience: creating artificial scarcity, manufacturing dependency, and harvesting human energy through decree rather than value creation.
But the operation runs deeper than the economic and cultural plunder I previously documented. They didn't just loot us financially and culturally. They rewired our psychology to make resistance impossible.
The Warning: Catherine's Panopticon
Catherine Austin Fitts published https://solarireport.substack.com/p/plunder-financing-the-panopticon?r=3h4e5w&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
last week, connecting dots that reveal the full scope of the operation. The surveillance infrastructure isn't just watching us—it's actively conditioning us for compliance. What she calls the "panopticon" creates the psychological substrate that makes extraction possible. Her work has long explored themes of sovereignty and financial freedom, but this latest analysis shows the endgame: we're not just being robbed—we're being programmed to participate in our own robbery.
This is the villain's masterpiece: a system so sophisticated it harvests not just our wealth but our very capacity for resistance.
The data proves the conditioning is working. A chart published last week by Financial Times data reporter John Burn-Murdoch shows young adults' personalities changing in real-time.
?itok=YVf1W1cN
Conscientiousness—the trait that builds wealth, delays gratification, and resists manipulation—is in freefall among 16-39 year-olds. While older generations maintain stable personality patterns, younger cohorts show dramatic psychological shifts perfectly timed with the maturation of surveillance capitalism.
This isn't natural personality change. It's engineered compliance. What began as laboratory experiments in consciousness control has evolved into mass media entrainment—https://stylman.substack.com/p/mkultra-the-hidden-hand-part-3-the
- demonstrates these weren't isolated experiments—they were the prototype for mass psychological conditioning.
Lower conscientiousness creates perfect citizens for a fiat world: impulsive, debt-prone, dependent on external validation, incapable of long-term planning. The same systems that price you out of ownership simultaneously condition you to prefer access over assets, subscriptions over purchases, digital relationships over physical community.
The feedback loop is elegant and vicious. Economic desperation drives people into surveillance systems—need the app for the gig job, need the credit score for the apartment, need the platform for the side hustle. The surveillance conditions breed psychological dependency. The dependency ensures continued participation in extraction. Each interaction harvests both your data and your agency, creating citizens who are easier to manage and harder to satisfy.
This system isn't just a control mechanism—it's a wealth extraction machine that pays for itself by making its subjects psychologically incapable of resistance.
Optimized to Be Harvested
The modern predicament runs deeper than financial extraction. We've been systematically optimized to be exploited across every domain of human experience. Our attention spans have been shortened to match advertising cycles. Our reward systems have been hijacked by dopamine-driven platforms. Our social connections have been mediated through algorithms designed to increase engagement, not satisfaction.
Consider how this optimization works in practice. Traditional cultures taught patience through necessity—growing food required seasons, building skills required years of apprenticeship, raising children required decades. Modern systems eliminate these natural training grounds for conscientiousness. Food comes instantly through apps—often https://nypost.com/2025/06/10/lifestyle/lab-grown-salmon-is-now-fda-approved/
engineered for addiction. Nourishment grown in soil has been replaced by chemistry optimized for profit, not health.
Skills are promised through weekend bootcamps instead of multi-year apprenticeships. Relationships form through swipes rather than shared work and years of building trust.
The removal of natural resistance-building experiences isn't accidental. A population that can't delay gratification is a population that can't build wealth. Citizens who can't focus deeply are citizens who can't think systemically. People who can't form lasting bonds are people who can't organize effective resistance.
We've been conditioned to chase extraction symbols—external markers of success that actually make us poorer: credentials over competence, optimization over wisdom, access over ownership. Meanwhile, we've been trained to ignore sovereignty symbols—the markers of actual independence: real skill, intuitive knowing, true possession.
?itok=2VXvMubn
The result is a generation whose labor creates unprecedented value—yet most of that wealth flows upward, leaving them building less personal wealth than their parents while staying more "informed" yet understanding less truth, feeling more connected while experiencing profound isolation.
The Modern Predicament
Here's the uncomfortable reality: we're all creatures of the system we're critiquing. https://stylman.substack.com/p/the-price-of-convenience
also makes modern control inevitable. The same technologies that enable global communication enable global surveillance. The same platforms that democratize information also weaponize attention. The same systems that promise freedom deliver sophisticated bondage.
Many people hit middle age and realize they learned all the wrong things. I certainly did. They optimized for metrics that turned out to be mirages, built careers in industries designed to extract value rather than create it, spent decades playing a game rigged against them while mistaking the ability to navigate the maze for intelligence.
This realization can be harrowing—or liberating. It's the difference between despair and awakening, between accepting defeat and choosing resistance.
The Search for Real Solutions
As more people realize everything is bullshit and start looking for genuine answers, something interesting happens: many of the solutions are found in the past. Not because we should abandon technology or retreat from modernity, but because we discarded methods and attitudes toward life, humanity, and time itself that actually worked.
People enter this awakening through different doors. Catherine's path was financial sovereignty, but others come through food (realizing our nutrition system is poisoned), pharma (seeing medicine turned into subscription extraction), education (recognizing schools as indoctrination centers), or media (watching narrative engineering in real-time). The entry points may differ, but for anyone who has the capacity to keep going, the destination is the same: understanding that our world has been systematically fabricated, and searching for what's actually real.
Thinkers are emerging with solutions on multiple fronts. Catherine Austin Fitts, who has been documenting financial corruption and building sovereignty frameworks for decades, provides the master-level map of the financial terrain and the tools for navigating it. Her work at https://solari.com/
is a graduate course in building financial sovereignty. Jeffrey Tucker offers something complementary: a playbook for rethinking how to operate in modern life while maintaining the founding fathers' mentality toward freedom and self-reliance.
That solutions are emerging simultaneously across multiple fronts suggests we've reached a tipping point—the extraction systems have become visible enough that resistance frameworks are crystallizing organically.
His latest book, https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1630693014/ref=sw_img_1?smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER&psc=1
, Tucker has created what amounts to a survival manual for maintaining human agency in an extractive world.
Tucker's journey mirrors that of millions of us who've been peeling back the facade across every domain—from COVID policy to food systems to financial extraction. As founder of the https://brownstone.org/
exemplifies this awakening—moving from questioning individual policies to documenting systematic harm across institutions. As our collective Overton window shifts, more people are connecting dots across previously separate areas of concern.
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This raises the inevitable question: once you see the scope of the problem, what do you do? While many of us might wish we were Amish (that ship has sailed for most of us), Tucker offers something more practical: how to live with founding fathers' principles in a world of smartphones and surveillance capitalism. He's not advocating retreat from modernity but showing how to navigate it without surrendering the character traits that made America's founders ungovernable.
Tucker's Pure Vision
What strikes me about this book is its purity and efficiency. When Jeffrey told me readers might think "anyone can write a book" after reading it, he wasn't being modest—he was identifying its power. In a world drowning in manufactured complexity, this 120-page work is as efficient as it is inspiring, cutting through the noise to reach essential truths.
The book's elegance lies not in sophisticated theory but in its radical simplicity. Tucker has identified the specific practices that make fiat systems powerless—not through retreat from modernity, but through applied philosophy for maintaining sovereignty within it.
The framework Tucker presents is remarkably simple—a few practices that make humans uncontrollable:
Long-time preference over instant gratification. In a world engineered for addiction to the immediate, the ability to delay gratification becomes revolutionary. When you can wait, you can't be rushed into bad decisions. When you can save, you can't be trapped in debt cycles. When you can plan decades ahead, you can't be manipulated by quarterly thinking. This isn't just financial advice—it's psychological warfare against systems designed to harvest your impulses.
Craftsmanship over disposable consumption. Real skill-building creates antifragility. The person who can fix, build, grow, or repair something valuable becomes harder to control. Craftsmanship builds the patience and attention span that surveillance capitalism deliberately erodes. It creates real value instead of renting access to other people's value. More importantly, it connects you to the satisfaction of completion in a world designed to keep you perpetually wanting.
Generational knowledge over credentialed expertise. Wisdom passed down through families and communities doesn't require institutional validation. It can't be revoked by authorities or updated by algorithm. Your grandmother's knowledge of food preservation doesn't come with subscription fees or terms of service. This knowledge exists outside their systems, making it both valuable and dangerous to those who profit from dependency.
Innate wisdom over external authority. The ability to trust your own judgment, read situations, and navigate by internal compass rather than external GPS—literally and metaphorically. This is what they fear most: people who don't need their systems to know what's true. Innate wisdom can't be monetized, can't be controlled, and can't be turned off with a software update.
The Antidote in Action
These aren't backward-looking practices—they're forward-building resistance to whatever extraction scheme comes next. Conscientiousness makes you resistant to financial manipulation. Craftsmanship makes you economically antifragile. Generational wisdom makes you culturally sovereign. Innate knowing makes you spiritually ungovernable.
What makes Tucker's approach powerful is that once you understand these principles—really understand them—the panopticon loses its hold. A person with genuine long-time preference can't be rushed into bad financial decisions. Someone with real craftsmanship skills can't be trapped in subscription dependency. People with generational wisdom don't need institutional validation. Those who trust their innate knowing don't need external authorities to tell them what's real.
The villain builds systems to harvest compliance. The hero builds character that makes those systems irrelevant.
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Taking Power Back
They've looted us financially, psychologically, and spiritually—but only because we participated in systems designed to make resistance seem impossible. This is where the two approaches converge. The sovereign individual that Tucker describes—one with long-time preference and innate wisdom—is the only person capable of effectively implementing the systemic solutions that Fitts recommends. A system designed to atomize and weaken us can only be countered by powerful individuals who have rebuilt their own sovereignty from the ground up, ready to build new, decentralized systems.
The same surveillance platforms that condition compliance can be starved of the data they need. The same institutions that demand obedience can be ignored in favor of natural law. The same artificial systems that promise convenience can be replaced with real competence.
Tucker isn't trying to recreate the past. He's showing how eternal human values make you uncontrollable in any era—especially this one. His message is both simple and radical: the revolution against fiat everything starts with choosing real things over artificial things, one decision at a time.
The conditioning runs deep, but it's not permanent. Your DNA remembers what your mind was programmed to forget. The choice between fiat and real exists in every moment, and every real choice builds resistance to their next extraction scheme.
Every skill learned becomes a rebellion against their subscription economy. Every dollar saved becomes a rebellion against their debt system. Every real conversation becomes a rebellion against their isolation agenda. Every moment of deep focus becomes a rebellion against their attention-harvesting apparatus.
Because in the end, the real war is between what they can manufacture and what you can make real.
What real thing will you choose today?
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 22:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fiat-everything-real-everything
"First True Taste Of Fall": Might Need A Jacket Next Week
"First True Taste Of Fall": Might Need A Jacket Next Week
Hurricane Erin dominates today's weather headlines, bringing rough surf and tropical conditions from the Outer Banks to the Mid-Atlantic. Looking ahead, fall may arrive earlier -or at least the first taste - than expected as August winds down and kids head back to school.
"Abnormally strong trough expected to move through the Great Lakes as we go into next week... first time we have seen those bright anomaly colors show up on @SynopticWX in a minute!" private weather forecaster BAM Weather wrote on X, adding, "A true taste of fall on the way!"
Abnormally strong trough expected to move through the Great Lakes as we go into next week... first time we have seen those bright anomaly colors show up on https://twitter.com/SynopticWX?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
in a minute!
A true taste of fall on the way! https://t.co/4YNXLtPqVT
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) https://twitter.com/bam_weather/status/1958117202021830734?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
For those residing in Washington, D.C. next week, average temperatures are forecast to fall well below the 30-year seasonal norm of around 75F. Models show average temps could dip into the low 60s by late next week.
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Low temps are forecasted to be in the low 50s next week around the Capital Beltway.
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Related:
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/noaa-issues-la-nina-watch-northern-hemisphere
Where did all the global warming go?
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 22:10
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/first-true-taste-fall-might-need-jacket-next-week
Meta Freezes Hiring In AI Division
Meta Freezes Hiring In AI Division
Weeks after reports that Meta was offering $100 million signing bonuses to poach OpenAI talent, it turns out the social media giant's chatbot ambitions aren't panning out so well - as the company has frozen hiring in its artificial intelligence division, according to the https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-ai-hiring-freeze-fda6b3c4?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjkHrfbRKvZBFzTEh2rLTxh_dJeF8c_-IzwndfI-T9gspMff_uqQcBrccsb3SU%3D&gaa_ts=68a6759b&gaa_sig=-5KOREcWmxhwUzq4KE1aL-SuUdkMjnNGUYDO0gZ7D0WDHdtUVDC-RyuG3UiJ2Ke8ymgyGxotF4teOiMYBC_gWg%3D%3D
.
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The freeze, which began last week, is part of a broader restructuring within the AI group - and prohibits current AI division employees from moving across teams withing the division. Any exceptions to the freeze will have to go through the company's chief AI officer, Alexander Wang, according to people familiar with the matter.
Meta confirmed the freeze, telling the Journal that this is nothing more than "basic organizational planning: creating a solid structure for our new superintelligence efforts after bringing people on board and undertaking yearly budgeting and planning exercises."
The recent restructuring inside Meta divides its AI efforts into four teams: one working on superintelligence, called TBD Lab, that houses many of the new hires; a second working on AI products; a third working on infrastructure; and a fourth dedicated to projects with a longer time horizon and more exploration, the people said. The latter, called Fundamental AI Research, remains largely untouched in the reorganization.
The four groups sit within the umbrella of Meta Superintelligence Labs, a name that reflects Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg’s recent emphasis on building computer systems that can outperform the smartest humans on cognitive tasks. The Information previously reported some details of Meta’s AI reorganization. -WSJ
Meanwhile the company's auto-AI within Facebook posts seems to be dead wrong every time, and in fact the opposite of super intelligent.
Seems like those nine-figure signing bonuses might have been a mistake... as several analysts have voiced concerns about aggressive investments in AI from leading tech firms - with some specifically pointing to Meta's 'fast-rising stock-based compensation costs' as something that could impact shareholder returns.
Mounting concern from investors over the costs of the tech giants’ AI buildout has played a role in this week’s selloff of technology stocks. In an Aug. 18 research note, analysts at Morgan Stanley warned that the fast-rising stock-based compensation offered by Meta and Google to lure AI talent could threaten their ability to return capital to shareholders via buybacks. Lavish spending on talent, the analysts wrote, “has the potential to drive AI breakthroughs with massive value creation or could dilute shareholder value without any clear innovation gains.” -WSJ
You mean more than a year later nothing has changed? https://t.co/wmKBlirinA
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1958176332040331764?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Meta ramped up internal focus on AI in April, after its large language models, known as Llama, were a giant disappointment vs. their competitors. As a result, the team responsible has been let go (or 'reorganized') as part of the latest move. Following this massive fail, CEO Mark Zuckerberg became personally involved in recruiting AI researchers - approaching several employees from OpenAI, Google DeepMind and other laps. He allegedly offered Thinking Machines Lab co-founder Andrew Tulloch as much as $1.5 billion, which Tulloch declined.
Wang, mentioned above, was offered a $14 billion stake, while former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman and Safe Superintelligence co-founder Daniel Gross were also brought on.
As of last week, Meta has successfully hired more than 20 researchers and engineers from OpenAI, at least 13 from Google, three from Apple, and three from Elon Musk's xAI. In total, they've hired more than 50 new employees.
In short...
There go the $100 million signing bonuses https://t.co/Zs3VFXTSVW
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1957844956699095449?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 21:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/meta-freezes-hiring-ai-division
Israel Calls Up 60,000 Reservists Ahead Of Gaza City Takeover
Israel Calls Up 60,000 Reservists Ahead Of Gaza City Takeover
Israeli media is reporting that around 60,000 Israeli reservists are set to receive call-up orders on Wednesday as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) gear up for a major assault on Gaza City.
A report in https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-august-20-2025/#liveblog-entry-3623997
notes that reservists will have up to two weeks before going to their duty stations, but not all will be directly involved in the Gaza City offensive, as some are needed replace Israeli forces currently stationed in other parts of Gaza.
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The controversial Netanyahu-ordered expanded offensive which aims to achieve total control of Gaza City is expected to displace over a million Palestinian civilians.
The IDF is prepared to use artillery to forcibly remove them, and a ramped-up air campaign has already been underway. Arab media sources, including Al Jazeera, have said that areas with a lot of tent shelters for refugees have at times been directly struck.
Israel's military has issued evacuation orders, and is framing this as simply a mass transfer, while the Palestinian side along with international human rights monitors have decried an ethnic cleansing and land grab in progress.
Reports in Israeli media have further described that after capturing the city, the IDF plans to spend over a year systematically demolishing it, which is precisely what previously happened in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and Jabalia.
The ostensible justification is for removal of "Hamas infrastructure" - but critics have said it is ultimately to pave the way for Jewish settlement of the Gaza Strip.
The question remains, where will these Gazans go? Israel has been seeking to pressure some regional and even north African countries to take them in.
To be expected, these conversations have gone nowhere especially as regional Arab states have already historically absorbed hundreds of thousands. For example, the majority of the population of Jordan actually has Palestinian roots.
Just life Rafah...
"Gaza, Gaza City itself, should look just like Rafah, which we turned into a pile of rubble."
Speaking on Channel 14, Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen of the Likud party called for the total destruction of Gaza City. https://t.co/CNBbDhNXHS
— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/1958152067643539647?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The Trump administration has meanwhile appeared to greenlight the takeover plans, in a break from Europe - which has grown much more critical of Israeli policy and loud over the last months.
Some EU states like Denmark are even mulling sanctions on Israel, and several major US allies are set to recognize the state of Palestine at the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in September.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 21:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-calls-60000-reservists-ahead-gaza-city-takeover
Escobar: What Really Happened In Alaska
Escobar: What Really Happened In Alaska
https://thecradle.co/articles/what-really-happened-in-alaska
The Putin–Trump meeting dropped some important veils. It revealed that Washington views Russia as a peer power, and that Europe is little more than a useful American tool...
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Alaska was not only about Ukraine. Alaska was mostly about the world's top two nuclear powers attempting to rebuild trust and apply the brakes on an out-of-control train in a mad high-speed rail dash towards nuclear confrontation.
There were no assurances, given the volatile character of US President Donald Trump, who conceived the high-visibility meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. But a new paradigm may be in the works nonetheless. Russia has essentially been de facto recognized by the US as a peer power. That implies, at the very least, the return of high-level diplomacy where it is most needed.
Meanwhile, Europe is dispatching a line-up of impotent leaders to Washington to kowtow in front of the Emperor.
The EU’s destiny is sealed: into the dustbin of geopolitical irrelevance.
What has been jointly decided by Trump, personally, and Putin, even before Moscow proposed charged-with-meaning Alaska as the summit venue, remains secret. There will be no leaks about the full content.
Yet it’s quite significant that Trump himself https://thecradle.co/articles-id/32578
Alaska as a 10 out of 10.
The key takeaways, relayed by sources in Moscow with direct access to the Russian delegation, all the way to the 3-3 format (it was initially designed to be a 5-5, but other key members, such as Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, did provide their input), emphasize that:
“It was firmly put [by Putin] to stop all direct US weapon deliveries to Ukraine as a vital step towards the solution. Americans accepted the fact that it is necessary to dramatically decrease lethal shipments.”
After that happens, the ball swings to Europe’s court. The sources specify, in detail:
“Out of the $80 billion Ukrainian budget, Ukraine itself provides less than around $20 billion. The National Bank of Ukraine says that they collect $62 billion in taxes alone, which is a hoax; with a population around 20 million, much more than one million of irreversible battlefield losses, a decimated industry and less than 70 percent of pre-Maidan territory under control that is simply impossible.”
So Europe – as in the NATO/EU combo – has a serious dilemma: ‘Either support Ukraine financially, or militarily. But not both at the same time. Otherwise, the EU itself will collapse even faster.’
Now compare all of the above with arguably the key passage in one of Trump’s Truth Social posts: “It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up.”
Add to it the essential sauce provided by former Russian president Dmitri Medvedev:
“The President of Russia personally and in detail presented to the US President our conditions for ending the conflict in Ukraine (…) Most importantly: both sides directly placed responsibility for achieving future results in negotiations on ending hostilities on Kiev and Europe.”
Talk about superpower convergence. The devil, of course, will be in the details.
BRICS on the table in Alaska
In Alaska, Vladimir Putin was representing not only the Russian Federation, but BRICS as a whole. Even before the meeting with his US counterpart was announced to the world, Putin spoke on the phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. After all, it’s the Russia–China partnership that is writing the geostrategic script of this chapter of the New Great Game.
Moreover, top BRICS leaders have been on a flurry of interconnected phone calls, leading to forge, in Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva's assessment, https://strategic-culture.su/news/2025/08/13/bear-dragon-elephant-toucan-nightingale-stare-down-goldfinger/
to counteract the Trump Tariff Wars. The Empire of Chaos, the Trump 2.0 version, is in a Hybrid War against BRICS, especially the Top Five: Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Iran.
So Putin did achieve a minor victory in Alaska. Trump: “Tariffs on Russian oil buyers not needed for now (…) I may have to think about it in two to three weeks.”
Even considering the predictable volatility, the pursuit of high-level dialogue with the US opens to the Russians a window to directly advance the interests of BRICS peers – including, for instance, Egypt and the UAE, blocked from further economic integration across Eurasia by the sanctions/tariff onslaught and the accompanying rampant Russophobia.
None of the above, unfortunately, applies to Iran: The Zionist axis has an iron grip on every nook and cranny of Washington’s policies vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic.
It's clear that both Trump and Putin are playing a long game. Trump wants to get rid of the pesky two-bit actor in Kiev – but without applying old school US coup/regime-change tactics. In his mind, the only thing that really registers is future, possible, mega trade deals on Russian mineral wealth and the development of the Arctic.
Putin also needs to manage domestic critics who won’t forgive any concessions. The desperate western media spin that he would offer freezing the front in Zaporozhye and Kherson in exchange for getting all of the Donetsk Republic is nonsense. That would go against the constitution of the Russian Federation.
In addition, Putin needs to manage how US business would be allowed to enter two areas that are at the heart of federal priorities, and a matter of national security: the development of the Arctic and the Russian Far East. All that will be discussed in detail two weeks from now, at the https://forumvostok.ru/en/programme/business-programme/?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fforumvostok.ru%2F
Once again, follow the money: Both oligarchies – in the US and Russia – want to go back to profitable business, pronto.
Lipstick on a defeated pig
Putin, bolstered by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – the undisputed Man of the Match, with his https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8czb0D1G7w
– finally had ample time, 150 minutes, to spell out, in detail, the underlying causes of Russia's Special Military Operation (SMO) and lay out the rationale for long-term peace: Ukraine neutrality; neo-nazi militias and parties banned and dismantled; no more NATO expansion.
Geopolitically, whatever may evolve from Alaska does not invalidate the fact that Moscow and Washington at least did manage to buy some strategic breathing space. That might yield even a new shot toward respect for both powers’ spheres of influence.
So it’s no wonder the Atlanticist front, from Europe’s old money to the bling bling novices, is freaking out because Ukraine is a giant money laundering mechanism for Eurotrash politicos. The Kafkaesque EU machine has already bankrupted EU member-states and EU taxpayers – but anyway, that’s not Trump’s problem.
Across Global Majority latitudes, Alaska displayed the fraying of Atlanticism in no uncertain terms – revealing that the US seeks a meek Europe subjugated to the strategy of tension, otherwise there’s no EU military surge, buying billions worth of over-priced American weapons with money it doesn't have.
At the same time, despite covetous US oligarchic private designs on Russian business, what Washington's puppet masters truly want is to break up Eurasia integration, and by implication every multilateral organization – BRICS, SCO – driven to design a new, multinodal world order.
Of course, a NATO surrender – even as it is being strategically defeated, all across the spectrum – remains anathema. Trump, at best, is applying lipstick on a pig, trying to craft, with trademark fanfare, what could be sold as a Deep State exit strategy, toward the next Forever War.
Putin, the Russian Security Council, BRICS, and the Global Majority, for that matter, harbor no illusions.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle or ZeroHedge.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 16:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-what-really-happened-alaska
Gabbard: Deep State Agents Are Sabotaging US Elections
Gabbard: Deep State Agents Are Sabotaging US Elections
Via https://www.vigilantfox.com/
Hannity just asked DNI Tulsi Gabbard whether there are still DEEP STATE actors inside the intel community SOBATAGING elections.
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She didn’t even have to think about it, and said “Our national security depends” on exposing them.
BREAKING: Hannity just asked DNI Tulsi Gabbard whether there are still DEEP STATE actors inside the intel community SOBATAGING elections.
She didn’t even have to think about it, and said “Our national security depends” on exposing them.
Hannity: “Do we have deep state actors… https://t.co/Tp7XEEhSNi
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1957990919677919619?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Hannity: “Do we have deep state actors that are trying to influence our presidential elections? Is that what we are concluding here?”
Gabbard: “Yes.”
She said Brennan, Clapper, Comey, and their allies inside the agencies all worked to manipulate intelligence to serve partisan interests.
“These are bad actors that have to be rooted out.”
“Our national security depends on it. The ability for the American people’s trust to be earned back depends on exposing the bad actors and holding them accountable.”
“And that’s what President Trump is determined to do.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 15:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gabbard-deep-state-agents-are-sabotaging-us-elections
She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle
She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle
If you recently graduated from college, good luck trying to find a decent job. What we are experiencing right now reminds me so much of the early 1990s. If you were a new college graduate in those days, it was extremely difficult to even get an interview for a good job. Sadly, we are now entering a very similar environment. There is enormous competition for any good job that is available, and mass layoffs are occurring all over the nation. In fact, through the first 7 months of this year the number of job cut announcements in the U.S. https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-truth-about-the-employment-numbers-806383-job-cuts-through-7-months-of-2025-up-75-percent-from-last-year/
than it was during the first 7 months of 2024.
I am not here to give people the Pollyanna version of what is going on. I am here to give people the truth.
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21-year-old Manasi Mishra believed that if she worked really hard and got a computer science degree she would be able to get a six figure job at a big tech company.
Instead, the only thing her computer science degree has gotten her https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14991227/computer-science-coding-jobs-graduates-AI.html
…
Aspiring computer scientists are sinking in a job market overtaken by AI, as a recent graduate who expected to make six figures could only land an interview at Chipotle.
Manasi Mishra, 21, was under the impression that if she worked hard in school and mastered coding, she’d have a prestigious tech job with a cushy salary lined up straight from college.
‘The rhetoric was, if you just learned to code, work hard and get a computer science degree, you can get six figures for your starting salary,’ the San Roman, California native told The New York Times.
In case you are wondering, she https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14991227/computer-science-coding-jobs-graduates-AI.html
with Chipotle…
To her dismay, she did not secure the job.
‘Of course, the year I graduate is the year the tech industry goes downhill,’ she elaborated in the ‘get ready with me’ video.
If even the tech industry is going “downhill”, what does that say about the state of the overall economy?
At one time, it was fairly easy to get hired by Microsoft if you had certain skills.
But this year Microsoft has conducted multiple rounds of layoffs. At this stage, the total number of workers that have been laid off https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/24/microsoft-satya-nadella-memo-layoffs.html
…
Microsoft has laid off over 15,000 people so far in 2025. The stress of the belt-tightening has gotten to CEO Satya Nadella.
“Before anything else, I want to speak to what’s been weighing heavily on me, and what I know many of you are thinking about: the recent job eliminations,” Nadella wrote in a memo to employees Thursday.
It would be difficult to overstate just how dramatically the environment has shifted.
Young people that are searching for jobs are running into closed door after closed door, and as a result many of them are experiencing financial difficulties.
, “nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter”…
Young Americans continued to make up the largest share of those transitioning into credit card delinquency in the second quarter, according to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve.
Despite ticking down slightly from the previous quarter, the report showed that nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter.
New York Fed researchers said credit card delinquency rates for Americans under 40 have been “unusually elevated,” adding they are keeping a “close eye” on the trend.
Credit card companies are going to become much more stingy in extending credit to young adults.
As you can imagine, that will not be good for our economy at all.
But this is the environment that we live in now.
One recent survey discovered that https://studyfinds.org/gen-z-have-zero-emergency-savings-young-americans-face-financial-crisis/
of Gen Z adults “have no emergency savings at all”…
Your car breaks down on a Tuesday morning, and the repair bill comes to $500. If you’re part of Generation Z, there’s a good chance you have nothing set aside to cover it. A new survey from Credit One Bank reveals that 62% of Gen Z have no emergency savings at all, nearly double the rate of baby boomers. There’s a very clear widening gap in financial preparedness happening between generations.
Let that sink in.
Nearly two-thirds of an entire generation of Americans is living on the edge.
There will be some that will argue that they should just toughen up and take whatever they can get.
In the old days, if times were tough you could at least get a job as a delivery driver.
But now UPS is trying to rapidly shed existing workers https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/ups-driver-severance-payment-offer-dates/753450/
…
The undertaking, called the Driver Voluntary Separation Program, is the first in UPS’ history for delivery drivers. The financial incentive available through the program is in addition to earned retirement benefits like pension and healthcare, per UPS.
Word of the program spread on July 3, when the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union said UPS’ buyout plan was in motion. The Teamsters represent more than 300,000 UPS employees under a five-year contract reached in 2023.
Drivers that have literally been with UPS for decades https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ups-extends-buyout-offer-deadline-after-low-driver-interest
so that the company can cut labor costs…
About 85% of UPS drivers are at the top end of the pay scale. Those who have 25 to 40 years of service would be the most likely candidates to accept the buyout package, Nando Cesarone, president of the U.S. region and UPS Airlines, told analysts on the call.
UPS is offering $1,800 per year of service, with a minimum payout of $10,000. A driver with 27 years of experience would receive a $48,600 buyout, according to the offer sheet.
I wouldn’t want to be a new college graduate today.
If you get stuck in a bad job that is not in your field, it can permanently wreck your career.
I have seen it happen way too many times.
But getting hired for a good job has become an extremely challenging task.
In fact, one recent survey found that more than 60 percent of all Americans believe that it has https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/01/trump-inflation-cost-of-living-poll
…
According to the poll, more than six out of 10 Americans said it had become more difficult to find a good paying job, buy a home and afford childcare.
More than four out of five Americans, 83%, said they were concerned about the cost of groceries, with 46% saying they were very concerned. Some 47% said they were worried about being able to pay their rent or mortgage, 64% said they were worried about affording an unexpected medical expense.
It is time to face the truth.
We really are in the midst of a substantial economic downturn that has been going on for quite some time.
Needless to say, I believe that the difficult times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F4DN45KX
.
So we are all going to have to adjust our plans and our expectations.
The system that we have all depended upon for so long is failing, and we all need to start becoming a lot more self-sufficient.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F4DN45KX
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:25
Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris
Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris
https://thecradle.co/articles/syria-announces-rare-meeting-with-top-israeli-official-in-paris
Syria has issued https://sana.sy/syria-and-the-world/2267545/
of a meeting between its foreign minister and a close confidante of Benjamin Netanyahu in Paris, marking the first official announcement of direct talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Earlier, reports had said Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani would meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris.
"Shaibani met today in the French capital, Paris, with an Israeli delegation to discuss several issues related to ‘enhancing stability’ in the region and southern Syria. Discussions focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syria's internal affairs, reaching understandings that support stability in the region, monitoring the ceasefire in As-Suwayda Governorate, and reactivating the 1974 agreement," state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday.
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"These discussions are being held with US mediation as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity," it added.
This was not the first meeting between Dermer and Shaibani. US envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, https://thecradle.co/articles/us-envoy-mediates-de-escalation-talks-between-senior-israeli-syrian-officials
on July 24 that he met in Paris with Syrian and Israeli officials for “dialogue and de-escalation.” Shaibani and Dermer were both visiting the French capital at the time.
Barrack’s announcement came after the end of violent clashes between pro-government forces and local Syrian Druze factions in the southern city of Suwayda and its countryside, resulting in numerous civilian massacres.
Israel intervened with a series of violent airstrikes targeting Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, under the pretext of “protecting” the Druze minority. According to reports, Syrian-Israeli negotiations, which had been ongoing since the start of the year, resumed quickly after the attacks, following a brief pause.
Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, Israeli forces have established a widespread military occupation across southern Syria.
Occupation forces continue to expand their presence in the country’s south, launching regular raids, https://thecradle.co/articles/damascus-requests-russian-patrols-in-south-syria-to-limit-israeli-incursions-report
, and airstrikes. Israel says it wishes to demilitarize the entire south, protect the Druze minority from persecution, and prevent ‘hostile forces’ from establishing a presence.
Many Syria analysts argue that President Sharaa does not mean to hurt https://twitter.com/hashtag/Syria?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
in his post, copied below, provides powerful evidence to the contrary.
In this video Sharaa honors Abu Sutaif al-Khattabi by giving him a… https://t.co/LyZ57eSYt8
— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/1957557862923657263?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Damascus has repeatedly signaled that it does not intend to pose a threat to Israel. Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has also reportedly held meetings with Israeli officials.
A source told Syrian media last month that Sharaa https://thecradle.co/articles/syrian-president-meets-israels-national-security-advisor-in-abu-dhabi-report
a meeting with Israel’s National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi in Abu Dhabi on July 7.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 12:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syria-israel-hold-unprecedented-us-mediated-talks-paris
Son Of Norway's Crown Princess Charged With Rape, Other Sexual Offenses
Son Of Norway's Crown Princess Charged With Rape, Other Sexual Offenses
The eldest son of Norway's Crown Princess Mette-Marit has been indicted on multiple charges of rape and sexual abuse, Norwegian prosecutors announced on Monday.
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Marios Borg Hoiby, 28, has been accused of raping four women over the course of six years - which he filmed. He has been indicted on 32 criminal counts, including abuse in close relationships, death threats, and traffic violations. If convicted, he faces up to 10 years in prison, https://www.nrk.no/norge/na-er-det-bestemt-om-marius-borg-hoiby-skal-bli-tiltalt-1.17519879
Oslo state attorney Sturla Henriksbø during a Monday presser.
Hoiby - whose stepmother is heir to the throne, denies all charges of sexual abuse, "as well as the majority of the charges regarding violence," his attorney, Petar Sekulic said in an email to the https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/19/norway-rape-royal-family-indictment/
.
"He will present a detailed account of his version of events before the court," the attorney added, noting that the trial will likely begin early next year.
The Monday indictment follows a year-long investigation that began in August 2024 following his arrest from an altercation with an ex-girlfriend in Oslo. Over the course of the investigation, Henriksbø said that the Oslo police reviewed thousands of media files and messages, and interviewed several witnesses.
During a search, police recovered explicit videos and images of several women who have been identified - leading to charges of sex abuse and other violations. The case has been handed over to the state attorney's office.
After he was charged with assault and battery last August, Hoiby told https://www-nrk-no.translate.goog/norge/marius-borg-hoiby-til-nrk_-innrommer-bruk-av-vald-1.16994669?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
that he was drunk and on cocaine, and had lashed out following an argument. He vowed to seek treatment for substance abuse.
Yet, Hoiby was arrested again in September for violating a restraining order, and then in https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/20/norway-royals-rape-marius-borg-hoiby/
on suspicion of rape.
Hoiby, who was 4 years old when his mother married into the royal family in 2001, has no royal title or duties. He was raised alongside the royal couple’s two children, Princess Ingrid Alexandra and Prince Sverre Magnus, who are second and third in line for the throne, respectively. -WaPo
In an email, the royal palace said it was up to the courts to decide the case.
Crown Prince Haakon, meanwhile, framed the situation as 'difficult,' telling reporters "We will continue to carry out our duties as best we can, as we always do," adding "Everyone involved in this case probably finds it challenging and difficult."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/20/2025 - 04:15
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/son-norways-crown-princess-charged-rape-other-sexual-offenses
China, India Agree To Coordinate On Trade Even As US Blasts 'Global Clearinghouse For Russian Oil'
China, India Agree To Coordinate On Trade Even As US Blasts 'Global Clearinghouse For Russian Oil'
After years of ratcheting tensions between nuclear-armed rivals China and India, which actually came to literal blows along their disputed Himalayan border over the last several years - including the deadly 2020 Galwan valley clashes among rival troops, which left dozens dead and wounded - relations between the two Asian regional powers are thawing fast.
Monday and Tuesday have seen a major breakthrough during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's two-day visit to Delhi, where he declared that India and China should https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202508/t20250819_11692653.shtml
as "partners" rather than "adversaries or threats".
He further hailed a "positive trend" towards cooperation between the two economic superpowers of the region, ahead of a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar in turn confirmed that the countries are busy trying to "move ahead from a difficult period in our ties."
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Wang described, "We are happy to share that stability has now been restored at the borders" given that mutually the feeling is "the setbacks that we faced in the last few years were not in our interest."
Several agreements on bilateral trade, investment, diplomatic coordination, religious pilgrimages, border and visa issues, and river data sharing were made among the sides. Per fresh Bloomberg reporting Tuesday, they https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/202508/t20250819_11692653.shtml
...
promote multilateralism and safeguard multilateral trade system to protect the interests of developing countries
To enhance communication on major global and regional issues
To resume direct flights between mainland China and India as soon as possible and revise civil aviation agreements
To facilitate visas for personnel engaged in tourism, business and media activities
A new consensus on border issues including normalization of border management, stability and peace protection, proper handling of sensitive areas, and start of boundary demarcation negotiations on certain areas
The timing of this growing rapprochement on the global stage is what is most interesting - given it comes as Washington is trying desperately to pressure and bully countries into halting purchases of Russian oil (and while seeking to put together a trilateral Putin-Trump-Zelensky meeting for peace), and imports of Russian energy and other goods generally.
For example, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro just at the start of this week decried India's purchases of Russian crude, saying it's funding Moscow's war machine and that it must stop immediately.
"India acts as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into high-value exports while giving Moscow the dollars it needs," Navarro https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/18/us-adviser-navarro-pushes-india-to-end-its-purchase-of-russian-crude
in a Financial Times op-ed published Monday.
🇮🇳 🇨🇳 India-China talks are going swimmingly and both countries have agreed to drop trade restrictions and keep improving diplomatic relations!
Good news for nearly 40% of the world's population and many others by extension.
🗞️ Reuters https://t.co/Go2P1hKBPo
— Dott. Orikron 🇵🇹 (@orikron) https://twitter.com/orikron/status/1957729681140027404?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The top Trump trade official blasted India's dependence on Russian crude as "opportunistic and deeply corrosive of the world’s efforts to isolate Putin’s war economy."
The irony in all of this - and especially given the top level India and China summit of warm relations this week - is that Beijing remains the biggest buyer of Russian oil, and India is the second largest.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 08/19/2025 - 22:35
Jeanine Pirro Launches DOJ Investigation Into Whether DC Has Been Faking Crime Data
Jeanine Pirro Launches DOJ Investigation Into Whether DC Has Been Faking Crime Data
Four weeks after a DC police commander was suspended amid https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-police-commander-suspended-crime-statistics/3959566/?amp=1
reports, citing two senior law enforcement officials.
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The investigation is run out of DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro's office following the accusation lodged against Metro PD commander Michael Pulliam, who was put on leave in May after the department began investigating whether he altered crime data. Pullman has denied the allegations.
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Pulliam's paid administrative leave came a week after he filed an equal employment opportunity complaint against an assistant chief over accusations that the department deliberately falsified crime data. The Police union, meanwhile, claims police supervisors in the department manipulate crime data to make it appear violent crime has fallen considerably compared to last year.
The DOJ investigation, however, will go much further - and will include other police and city officials who may have also fabricated or altered crime data.
"D. C. gave Fake Crime numbers to create a false illusion of safety," President Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday night.
"This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing!" he continued, adding "Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe ‘city’ in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour!"
The DOJ has yet to articulate what specific crimes DC police officials have committed beyond 'manipulating data.'
DC Mayor Muriel Bowser flipped out, of course, touting what she says is a drop in violent crime that happened before President Trump brought in hundreds of National Guard troops and federal law enforcement officers to join local PD - also taken over by the Trump admin - in fighting what Trump called a crime emergency. DC statistics showed violent crime down 27% year-over-year, and homicides down 11% - numbers that are now being called into question.
"We are not experiencing a spike in crime," Bowser told MSNBC. "In fact, we’re watching our crime numbers go down."
Sure you are!
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 08/19/2025 - 19:40
Trump's Reset Moves Into High Gear With Stephen Miran's Fed Nomination
Trump's Reset Moves Into High Gear With Stephen Miran's Fed Nomination
Recently, I wrote to you about how Trump had found “the perfect opening” to reshape the Federal Reserve when Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned.
What I didn’t expect was how perfectly this would confirm everything we’ve been tracking about https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
.
Trump didn’t just fill that vacant Fed seat with any dovish voice. He appointed Stephen Miran—the mastermind behind what’s probably the most audacious economic strategy in modern history.
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If you’ve been following our https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
, you already know Stephen Miran—and if you do, chances are you’ll agree this appointment is the clearest sign yet that Trump’s Reset isn’t just on the horizon. It’s already underway.
The Architect of Trump’s Reset
Stephen Miran is the author of A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System—the blueprint for what’s been dubbed the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”
Published just days after Trump’s victory last November, it outlines a comprehensive plan to flip the U.S. dollar’s reserve status from a burden into a bargaining chip. To turn America’s towering debt from an embarrassment into leverage. And to reorient the entire global economic structure in Washington’s favor.
Now, to understand why Miran sees a reserve currency’s status as a burden in the first place, you have to dig into a little-known economic paradox.
It’s called Triffin’s Dilemma, named after Belgian economist Robert Triffin, and it describes the paradox that arises when a country’s currency also serves as the world’s reserve currency—like the U.S. dollar today.
To meet global demand for its currency, the issuing country must run persistent trade deficits—exporting more of its currency than goods and services.
This arrangement can help support global growth, but over time it wears down the issuing country’s industrial base, piles on debt, and leaves the economy more fragile.
If that country stops running deficits, the world can face a shortage of the reserve currency—slowing trade and pushing others toward alternative systems. But if it keeps running them, debt and imbalances keep growing. That’s the bind.
So if you’ve ever wondered why the U.S. economy is so financialized, so reliant on debt, and so heavily tilted toward “services”—this is why.
Triffin’s Dilemma is also why Miran refers to the U.S. dollar and Treasuries as “costly global public goods” America provides to the world—a burdensome affair he aims to address through “burden-sharing at the global level,” as he outlined in his April speech at the Hudson Institute. Here’s a snippet from that address:
“In my view, to continue providing these twin global public goods, there needs to be improved burden-sharing at the global level.
(…)
The best outcome is one in which America continues to create global peace and prosperity and remain the reserve provider, and other countries not only participate in reaping the benefits, but they also participate in bearing the costs. By improving burden sharing, we can enhance resilience, and preserve the global security and trading systems for many decades into the future.”
Now, I’ve read the whole speech, and I’m not wild about a number of things in there—like the “create global peace” line in the quote above. Nevertheless, with Miran now just steps away from becoming a Fed governor, pending Senate confirmation, it’s worth recalling what this “burden-sharing” actually looks like in his view. Here’s a quick rundown of his plan:
Accept tariffs without retaliation — Let U.S. tariffs stand, generating revenue for Washington.
Open their markets — End unfair trade practices and buy more American goods.
Increase defense spending — Procure more U.S.-made weapons and equipment.
Build factories in the U.S. — Set up local production and avoid tariffs altogether.
Write checks to the Treasury — Yes, really. Direct financial contributions to help the U.S. fund “global public goods.”
As far-fetched as some of this sounds, it’s worth keeping in mind that parts of Miran’s strategy are already playing out.
The European Union (EU), for one, recently backed off its planned €93 billion (~$102 billion) in retaliatory tariffs—agreeing to a new trade framework with Washington that keeps Trump’s duties in place while committing to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and invest another $600 billion in the American economy, including U.S. military gear.
Over in the corporate world, big Indian consumer packaged goods names like Amul and ITC are looking at setting up plants in the U.S. or in third countries to keep their exports flowing.
Even Apple is now falling in line—announcing an additional $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing investments over the next four years, bringing its total U.S. investment to $600 billion.
The Takeaway
It was interesting to watch the market’s reaction to Miran’s Fed nomination…
The dollar slid, while gold, Bitcoin, and stocks all pushed higher.
Clearly, someone’s been reading the same breadcrumbs we have.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan called it an “existential threat” to Fed independence.
Sure—if we’re still pretending the Fed is truly independent, they might be right. But that’s the whole point—and exactly the bigger picture they’re missing: this is the execution phase of the most ambitious economic plan we’ve seen in generations.
This isn’t just about getting another dovish vote for rate cuts—Trump could’ve slotted in any of his yes-men for that. This is about installing the architect of America’s monetary reset directly inside the Federal Reserve.
As I noted earlier, parts of https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
have already shown up in trade deals and investment shifts—but with Miran inside the Fed, the playbook moves from white papers and speeches into the heart of monetary policy.
Will they succeed?
We don’t know. What we do know is that the reset will present big opportunities for those who see it coming and position accordingly—and plenty of pain for those who don’t. As Matt Smith put it:
“Succeed or fail, Trump’s plan will impact all of us and our investments. I confess I’m delighted Team Trump sees the problem… has a plan to avoid the worst, and catapult the U.S. to new prosperity. But what they need to do will not come without pain. A LOT of pain.”
If you want the full picture but don’t want to slog through Miran’s dense 40-page white paper, Matt has already done the hard work—https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
, including some that were barely hinted at in the original report (because stating them outright could have caused unnecessary alarm at the time).
Whatever you do, you’ll want to educate yourself on the topic—because the reality is, if you don’t understand what https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
is about, you’re flying blind into one of the most significant monetary shifts in modern history.
* * *
Stephen Miran’s appointment isn’t just another Fed nomination—it’s a signal that Trump’s Reset is moving from theory to execution. The gold rush in London, the strategic accumulation in New York, and the looming overhaul of the U.S. monetary order are all part of a much bigger plan. If you don’t understand how this will impact your savings, investments, and standard of living, you could be flying blind into one of the most significant economic shifts in generations. To see how Trump’s strategy could revalue gold, restructure America’s balance sheet, and reshape the global monetary system—and how you can position yourself before the reset hits—read the full briefing here: https://internationalman.com/get-ready-for-trumps-monetary-reset/
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 08/19/2025 - 15:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trumps-reset-moves-high-gear-stephen-mirans-fed-nomination
New Image Shows Extent Of Blast-Damaged Cargo Ship In Baltimore
New Image Shows Extent Of Blast-Damaged Cargo Ship In Baltimore
Update (0955ET):
New images circulating X show the damaged cargo ship MV W Sapphire after an explosion ripped through its forward hold near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge on Monday evening. The vessel was sailing through Baltimore’s Inner Harbor shipping lane at the time of the incident, shortly after departing the CSX coal dock with a full load.
Shipping expert Sal Mercogliano wrote on X that the vessel remains anchored just north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. He said the image shows the number 1 hatch blown wide open, suggesting the explosion of a buildup of methane mixed with coal.
W Sapphire is still anchored just north of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.
This image shows the #1 hatch cover lying on top of the ship, indicating that the explosion - probably from a methane buildup, along with some coal - displaced it.
The ship will need to be surveyed &… https://t.co/Ad0o46JJTQ
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1957764088492355895?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
An aerial image shows extensive damage to the number 1 hatch.
Aerial photo showing the damaged ship. https://twitter.com/hashtag/MVWSapphire?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Andrew Doyle (@doyle0213) https://twitter.com/doyle0213/status/1957640732170416149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
More details about the incident from MarineTraffic....
Fire on ship near Baltimore prompts rapid coast guard response
An https://twitter.com/hashtag/explosion?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/1957774799423336726?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
An explosion has been reported on a cargo ship traveling through the outbound shipping lane of Baltimore’s Inner Harbor near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge.
NEW - Cargo ship explodes near Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. https://t.co/oQKld5xY4R
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1957595453890891882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
According to shipping expert Sal Mercogliano, the cargo ship MV W Sapphire “suffered an explosion in its forward hold” and was “fully loaded” at the time of the incident.
MV W Sapphire, outbound from Baltimore near the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, suffered an explosion in its forward hold.
The ship has been escorted off Fort Howard and fire and https://twitter.com/USCG?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
vessels are on scene.
W Sapphire is a fully loaded bulk carrier sailing to Mauritius. https://t.co/Vyn9oWQIjR
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1957586721899704520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Mercogliano said the W Sapphire “had just departed from the CSX Curtis Bay coal piers in Baltimore” and suggested “this may have been a coal explosion in the forward hold.”
?itok=KqmIV4Dx
Shipping expert John Konrad notes, "Coal can create methane and is subject to self-heating and liquefication. Bulkers can explode..."
Sal has confirmed the explosion of a ship in Baltimore. This is a bulk carrier.
We don’t know the cargo but Baltimore is a major exporter of coal & Mauritius is a coal importer.
Coal can create methane and is subject to self-heating and liquefication. Bulkers can explode… 1/4 https://t.co/JQ0VAPlmwR
— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/1957600762868982177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Baltimore City Fire spokesperson John Marsh told local station WBAL-TV that the explosion occurred around 6:28 p.m. local time. No details were provided about the source of the blast.
*Developing...
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 08/19/2025 - 09:55
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/explosion-rocks-cargo-ship-departing-baltimore-harbor
Global Stock Rally Fades As Ukraine Talks Continue, Focus Turns To Jackson Hole
Global Stock Rally Fades As Ukraine Talks Continue, Focus Turns To Jackson Hole
Futures are flat ahead of consumer-sector earnings kicking off today, starting with a miss by Home Depot this morning. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged while Nasdaq futures drop 0.1% as Mag7 names are mostly lower ex-NVDA. Semis are mostly weaker ex-INTC which gained more than 6% on news SoftBank would invest $2 billion in the chipmaker and the US would take a 10% stake. Defensives are slightly outperforming Cyclicals. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% as signs of progress toward a peace settlement in Ukraine lifted sentiment. The dollar nudged lower. Treasuries eked out gains after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the US, with the 10-year rate falling one basis point to 4.32%. Commodities are weaker dragged lower by energy despite strength in precious and Ags. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-widens-metal-tariffs-target-090534391.html
a trade escalation from Friday where Trump expanded the metals tariffs to more than 400 consumer goods, including baby gear, and there is no exemption for goods already in transit; the article states this impacting $328bn of goods based on 2024 trade levels vs. $191bn before the expansion and is more than 6x levels from 2018. Today’s macro data focus is on housing starts and building permits; XHB has lagged SPX YTD by 138bp but has outperformed the SPX by 912bp over the last month.
?itok=dXZFqu9k
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.3%, Tesla -0.2%, Microsoft -0.05%, Alphabet -0.2%, Apple -0.2%, Amazon -0.2%, Meta -0.3%).
Fabrinet (FN) falls 8% after the optical device maker said it expects to see a sequential dip in datacom segment revenue in its fiscal 1Q, citing supply constraints for some critical components.
Home Depot (HD) shares reversed a 2% drop after a closely watched sales measure missed estimates last quarter, suggesting consumers are holding back on major purchases.
Intel (INTC) is up 5% after SoftBank Group Corp. agreed to buy $2 billion of the chipmaker’s stock.
Iovance (IOVA) jumps 15% after the biotech said Health Canada approved Amtagvi to treat certain patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma.
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) rises 2% after agreeing to acquire all outstanding shares of Tegna (TGNA) for $22 per share in a cash deal valued at $6.2 billion. Tegna shares are up 3%.
Opera Limited (OPRA) rise 3% after the software firm boosted its revenue guidance for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) gains 6% after the security software company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a strong outlook.
Peabody Energy (BTU) rises 7% after deciding to walk away from a $3.8 billion deal to buy Anglo American Plc’s steelmaking coal business following a fire at an Australian mine.
Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) slumps 35% after the company announced top-line results from the Phase 2 clinical trial of its oral obesity drug.
The global stock rally has stalled as investors await new twist and turns in the Ukraine drama, awaited this Friday's Jackson Hole symposium where Jerome Powell is set to unveil a new policy framework (and usher in a September rate cut), and watched earnings from the biggest US retailers. Money markets are currently betting the Fed will deliver its first rate cut for the year in September, as labor-market weakness outweighs inflation risks, with another move expected before year-end. Oil slipped as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the conflict in Ukraine and a potential future supply increase of Russian crude. Brent fell below $66 a barrel, extending a decline for the month to around 9%.
“With much of it priced in already, equities may need a new catalyst,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. “August through October is seasonally soft, and rising long-term bond yields could tempt investors to pocket recent gains.”
In other corporate news, Nvidia is said to be preparing a more powerful chip for China, according to Reuters. Apple is said to be expanding iPhone production in India as it seeks to lessen its reliance on China for US-bound models, Bloomberg News reported. The company is producing all four iPhone 17 models in India ahead of their debut next month, marking the first time that all new variations will ship from the South Asian country from the get-go. Tesla priced its updated, six-seat Model Y sport utility vehicle in the same range as local rival Li Auto’s extended-range L8 model, to win over middle-class families in China’s hyper-competitive market. Shein is said to be considering moving its base back to China to help sway Beijing authorities to sign off on its plans to go public.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 climbed 0.6% to its highest level since March after Bloomberg reported US and European officials have started work on a Ukraine’s security plan. That is expected to include a package of guarantees that will open a path to a landmark meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Sweden’s Ambea and Sweco are among the biggest outperformers, on earnings and a broker upgrade, respectively. Defense stocks drop on Ukraine news, while London- and Warzaw-listed stocks exposed to the war-torn country gain. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Ambea gains as much as 9.5% after the Swedish care provider reported net sales for 2Q that beat the average analyst estimate. DNB Carnegie says the report shows “continued strong momentum” for the company
Sweco gains as much as 5.2%, to the highest in more than a month, after DNB Carnegie reinstated coverage of the Swedish engineering consultancy with a price target just shy of the current Street-high
Huber+Suhner shares rise as much as 9.8% to a record after the Swiss electrical components firm reported Ebit for the first half-year that beat estimates. Vontobel sees consensus estimates moving upward
Shares in Ukraine-exposed companies surge in Warsaw and London amid revived hopes of a peace deal after Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders met US President Trump on Monday
Odfjell Drilling gains as much as 11% and reaches a new all-time high after reporting second-quarter results. DNB Carnegie said the Norwegian offshore drilling firm’s report showed “continued strong performance”
Applied Nutrition shares rise as much as 12%, the most on record, after the health supplements company said it anticipates revenue to be ahead of market expectations
European defense companies’ shares are lower Tuesday amid prospects for a potential meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin
DocMorris drops as much as 14% following the Swiss-based online pharmacy company’s first-half results. Analysts note that a significant step-up will be required in the second half to achieve the unchanged guidance
Coloplast falls as much as 3.7%, the most in a month, after the Danish wound and ostomy care group reported disappointing third-quarter earnings, with sales and profit missing consensus estimates
International Workplace shares slide as much as 18%, the most in three years, after guiding that full-year earnings are likely to come in toward the lower end of the range expected by analysts due to investments
Basilea shares give up initial gains and head lower as much as 6.5% after the Swiss bio-pharmaceutical company reported results that ZKB analysts said showed a “disappointing” cashflow performance
Skan shares fall as much as 12%, the most since July 2021, after the health care supplier reported weaker-than-expected results for the first half of 2025, with the Ebitda dropping to CHF0.9 million ($1.1 million)
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a second day, with South Korea and Australia leading losses, as markets take a breather after an extended rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, with Sydney-listed biotech CSL the biggest drag as it posted the worst decline on record after disappointing earnings. Equities also dropped in tech-heavy Hong Kong and Taiwan, while benchmarks advanced in Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam. A gauge of Chinese equities reversed early gains after notching a record close Monday. Sentiment remains bullish, as gains from institutional money chasing these stocks bolster sentiment toward emerging markets and the broader Asian region. Indian shares also moved higher, on track for a fourth session of gains amid thawing relations with China and expectations of a boost in consumption from planned tax cuts.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat while the Swedish krona takes top spot among G-10 peers, rising 0.3% against the greenback.
Treasuries eked out gains after S&P Global Ratings affirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the US, with the 10-year rate falling one basis point to 4.32%. Treasury auctions resume Wednesday with $16 billion 20-year new issue; an $8 billion 30-year TIPS reopening is slated for Thursday.
In commodities, Brent crude futures fell 1% to near $66 a barrel extending a decline for the month to around 9%, as traders weighed the outlook for an end to the conflict in Ukraine and a potential future supply increase of Russian crude. European natural gas futures are down 0.4%.
Looking at today's calendar, the data slate includes July housing starts and building permits (8:30am New York time). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Bowman (10am and 2:10pm).
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 mini little changed
Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.5%
DAX +0.4%
CAC 40 +0.8%
10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.33%
VIX little changed at 14.96
Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1205.06
euro +0.1% at $1.1675
WTI crude -1.1% at $62.75/barrel
Top Overnight News
President Trump on Monday urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet face to face with him at a peace conference in a long shot U.S.-led bid to end the 3½-year-long war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reports that a summit between Putin and Zelenskiy may take place within two weeks, but the Kremlin has yet to confirm. WSJ, BBG
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the credit ratings of the U.S., saying it expects robust revenues from the Trump administration’s newly instituted tariff regime to help offset the expected fiscal deterioration resulting from recent legislative changes. WSJ
Ukraine will promise to buy $100bn of American weapons financed by Europe in a bid to obtain US guarantees for its security after a peace settlement with Russia. FT
Intel jumped premarket (INTC +5.8% pre) after SoftBank agreed to invest $2 billion, paying $23 per share — a slight discount to Intel’s last close. The deal would amount to about a 2% stake in the chipmaker. BBG
NVDA is developing a new AI chip for China based on its latest Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there, two people briefed on the matter said. RTRS
Trump’s tariff war is speeding Beijing’s trade and investment drive into developing nations, potentially paving the way for a China-led trade order, S&P Global said. BBG
Japan’s 20-year bond auction saw weaker demand than previous months, as investors remained wary of long-term debt given risks from rising spending and tax cuts. BBG
Apple Inc. is expanding iPhone production in India at five factories, including a pair of recently opened plants, as it seeks to lessen its reliance on China for US-bound models. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
Brazil's government submitted its response to the US Section 301 investigation and said it urges the USTR to reconsider the initiation of the Section 301 investigation and to engage in constructive dialogue. It was separately reported that Brazil's Finance Minister Haddad said Brazil is deadlocked with the US over 50% tariffs and reduction in high levies depends on Washington being open to talks, according to FT.
India exempted import duty on cotton between August 19th to September 30th, according to a government order.
Japan-India framework to focus on chips, mineral resources, and AI, according to reports citing Nikkei
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the ultimately flat performance stateside amid a lack of fresh macro catalysts, as focus centred on geopolitical updates and amid cautiousness ahead of Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. ASX 200 pulled back from record highs with heavy losses in healthcare as CSL shares fell by a double-digit percentage after the announcement to spin-off its flu vaccine business and cut 15% of its workforce, while tech was at the other end of the spectrum and miners also gained post-BHP earnings despite the mining giant reporting a 26% drop in FY underlying profit. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after failing to sustain the initial upward momentum that had lifted the index to a fresh record high. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat following a firm liquidity effort by the PBoC which injected CNY 580bln through its 7-day reverse repo operation, while there were also comments on Monday by Chinese Premier Li who said the nation should consolidate and expand the positive trend in the economy, as well as stabilise market expectations and should continue to stimulate consumption potential.
Top Asian News
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with his counterpart in India and said their countries should establish a correct strategic understanding, as well as regard each other as partners and opportunities, not as rivals or threats, while he added that China is ready to uphold the principle of cordiality and mutual benefit.
China Jan-July Fiscal Revenue +0.1% Y/Y; Expenditures +3.4% Y/Y.
XPeng (9868 HK) Q2 (CNY) Adj. EPS -0.20 (exp. -0.36, prev. -0.19 Y/Y), Revenue 18.27bln (exp. 18.11bln); Q3 deliveries: Vehicles to be between 113-118k.
Russian Defence Ministry says they have conducted strikes on oil refinery supplying fuel to Ukrainian armed forces, according to Ifax.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened modestly firmer across the board, with cautious optimism stemming from the recent US President Trump/Ukrainian President Zelensky/EU Leaders meeting. On that, Trump described it as a very good meeting, while he also called Russian President Putin to begin arrangements for a Putin-Zelensky meeting, which would be followed by a trilateral meeting with Trump. Reportedly, security agreements were discussed; on territorial developments, Zelensky suggested it would be a discussion between Ukraine and Russia. As the morning progressed, stocks have gradually climbed higher and currently sit at highs. European sectors hold a positive bias, but the breadth of the market is fairly narrow. Consumer Products takes the top spot, joined closely by Basic Resources and Retail; nothing really company-specific is driving the upside in these sectors, but largely benefiting from the slightly positive risk tone.
Top European News
UK's ONS says Friday's scheduled retail sales data release has been delayed until September 5th
FX
DXY is relatively rangebound this morning with a slight negative bias and price action contained to either side of the 98.00 mark. Currently in a narrow 97.99-98.32 parameter vs Monday's 97.77-98.19 range. The theme over the last couple of days has been geopolitics, with deliberations over the Russia-Ukraine war in Washington concluding for now. Overall, there has been no breakthrough in Monday's discussions, although talks may advance with a possible Zelensky–Putin meeting in two weeks, their first since the war began. Despite the mild optimism, betting markets remain pessimistic, with Polymarket pointing to a 38% chance of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire this year.
EUR/USD is holding a mild upward bias after finding support at its 50 DMA (1.1641) following Monday's slide under 1.1700, with very little newsflow from the bloc aside from the comments from various European leaders following the multilateral meeting on Ukraine at the White House. EUR/USD resides in a current 1.1640-1.1685 range with the 50 DMA at 1.1641.
Modest gains in the JPY, albeit in tandem with USD weakness, with little in terms of fresh catalysts from Japan. USD/JPY trades in either side of 148.00 in a 147.53-148.11 parameter, vs Monday's 147.06-147.99 range, with the 50 DMA at 146.60 and the 200 DMA at 149.22.
GBP continues to struggle for direction as newsflow from the UK remains very quiet, although there were reports that UK Chancellor Reeves is considering replacing stamp duty with a new property tax. GBP/USD trades in a 1.3486-1.3529 range (vs Monday's 1.3501-1.3568), with the 50 DMA at 1.3501 today.
Antipodeans are essentially flat vs the Dollar today, continuing the tentative risk tone seen in overnight trade.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1359 vs exp. 7.1846 (Prev. 7.1322)
Fixed Income
A contained start to the day for USTs after the pressure that began towards the end of the European day and intensified into the mid-US morning. The pullback occurred as the White House meetings got underway and, ultimately, as the tone from the meeting was a positive one with progress made towards a trilateral summit and then security guarantees. On the guarantees, they are seemingly set to be formed of a coalition of the willing, which will be coordinated by the US. Currently, USTs are at a 111-15 trough, near enough unchanged on the session. If USTs conform to the bearish bias in EGBs, then Monday’s 111-13+ base is the first focal point before a bit of a gap until 110-23+ from the first week of August.
As mentioned above, EGBs were slightly softer at this moment in time. Lower by as much as 10 ticks at worst. Pressure is seemingly a function of two bearish supply-side factors: 1) upcoming issuance, with Germany selling EUR 4.5bln of 2030 debt; 2) the funding security guarantees for Ukraine. Currently, the low point is 128.73. If we return to and move below this, Monday’s 128.70 base and then last week’s 128.64 trough comes into view. The German 2030 auction was well received, drawing a better-than-prior b/c - which helped to flip Bunds into positive territory.
Gilts trade similar to Bunds but modestly underperforming. Thus far, to a 90.43 base with downside of just over 15 ticks at most. Taking out Monday’s 90.52 base and bringing levels from May into view. Given this, the UK 10yr yield is at a fresh WTD peak of 4.76%, approaching 4.69% from end-May.
UK sells GBP 1.6bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.1x (prev. 3.35x) & real yield 1.728% (prev. 1.588%).
Commodities
Crude oil trades softer following the Washington confabs between the US, Ukraine, EU, and NATO. Overall, there has been no breakthrough in Monday's discussions, although talks may advance with a possible Zelensky–Putin meeting in two weeks, their first since the war began. The main obstacle remains Russia’s demand for full control of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Ukraine rejects. WTI currently resides in a 62.05-62.68/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.58-66.02/bbl range.
Mostly flat trade across precious metals amid quiet markets and with little fallout seen in the yellow metal from the deliberations on Russia-Ukraine, as traders await a clearer hint of what will result from the talks. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold trading under its 50 DMA (3,349.61/oz) in a USD 3,326.28-3,341.88/oz range.
Flat/mixed trade across base metals amid the broader tentative mood across the markets. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,739.40-9,782.00/t range.
Equinor (EQNR NO) preparations for start up of Norway's Hammerfest LNG terminal after outage are underway.
Ukraine's Energy Ministry says Russian attacks damaged gas transport infrastructure.
Germany sells EUR 3.424bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.20% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.90x (prev. 1.50x), average yield 2.32% (prev. 2.28%) & retention 23.19% (prev. 24.24%).
Geopolitics
US and Europe to work immediately on Ukraine security guarantees, via Bloomberg.
Poland PM Tusk will take part in meeting of the Coalition of the Willing at 11:00BST/06:00EDT, according to a spokesperson.
Ukraine Foreign Minister says future trilateral leaders meeting can bring a breakthrough on the path to peace.
US President Trump posted that he had a very good meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders, which ended in a further meeting in the Oval Office and during the meeting, they discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, which would be provided by the various European countries with coordination with the US. Trump added everyone is very happy about the possibility of peace for Russia and Ukraine, and at the conclusion of the meetings, he called Russian President Putin and began the arrangements for a meeting, at a location to be determined, between President Putin and President Zelensky. Furthermore, Trump said after that meeting takes place, they will have a trilateral between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, as well as noted that this was a very good, early step for a war that has been going on for almost four years and that VP Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and Special Envoy Witkoff are coordinating with Russia and Ukraine.
Russia's Kremlin said US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a phone call which lasted 40 minutes and they discussed the idea of exploring the possibility of raising the level of Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the negotiations, while Putin warmly thanked Trump for the hospitality and well-organized meeting in Alaska, as well as for progress achieved at the summit. Furthermore, Putin and Trump spoke in favour of the continuation of direct talks between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations, while they agreed to continue close contact with each other on the Ukrainian crisis and other issues.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said we need not a pause in the war, but real peace and territorial issues will be decided between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky said he discussed security guarantees with Trump and European leaders, and received an important signal from the US on being part of security guarantees and help in coordinating it. Furthermore, he said the US offers to have a trilateral meeting as soon as possible and that Ukraine is ready for any format to meet with Putin.
Ukraine reportedly offered a USD 100bln weapons deal to US President Trump in an effort to win security guarantees, according to the Financial Times citing documents laying out Kyiv's proposal to Trump at the White House meeting.
US Secretary of State Rubio told Fox News that they will work with European allies and non-European countries to build security guarantees for Ukraine. Rubio said he was in the room when Trump and Putin spoke, while he added that Trump suggested to Putin that he meet with Zelensky.
NATO Secretary General Rutte said it was a very successful day in Washington where security guarantees were discussed and more details on security guarantees will be discussed in the coming days, while he added it is a breakthrough that the US will get involved and they are discussing some Article 5-type arrangement.
European Commission President Von der Leyen said after the White House meeting that they are here as allies and friends for peace in Ukraine and in Europe, while she added this is an important moment as they continue to work on strong security guarantees for Ukraine.
German Chancellor Merz that he feels these are decisive days for Ukraine and is not sure if Russian President Putin will have the courage to come to a summit with Zelensky present, while he added that expectations were not only met but were exceeded from this meeting. Merz also stated that US President Trump spoke with Russian President Putin and agreed that a Putin-Zelenskiy meeting will happen within two weeks, while the location is yet undecided, and that will be followed by a three-way meeting involving Trump.
Finland's President Stubb said they agreed on security guarantees and steps forward, as well as noted that talks were constructive and the Coalition of the Willing has already worked on security guarantees which they will build upon. Stubb also stated there is nothing concrete about US participation in security guarantees and that US President will inform them, with details of security guarantees to be ironed out in the next week or so.
Debris from a destroyed Ukrainian drone sparked a fire at an oil refinery and hospital in Russia's Volgograd, according to the regional administration.
North Korea leader Kim said joint US-South Korea military drills show willingness for war provocation, while he also stated that the security environment requires North Korea to expand its nuclear armament rapidly.
"Israeli media: The Chief of Staff will present today to the Minister of Defense the plan to occupy Gaza City", according to Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
8:30 am: Jul Housing Starts, est. 1297k, prior 1321k
8:30 am: Jul P Building Permits, est. 1385.5k, prior 1393k
Central Banks
10:00 am: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on BTV
2:10 pm: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Geopolitical headlines continued to dominate yesterday, as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and several other European leaders met President Trump at the White House. The main news is that Trump is now seeking to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy, and he posted afterwards on Truth Social that he called Putin and “began the arrangements for a meeting” between the two. Zelenskiy said he was ready for these talks, but the Kremlin hasn’t committed to such a meeting yet, with Putin’s aide Ushakov making more ambiguous comments last night that they had “discussed the idea of raising the level of Russia’s and Ukraine’s representatives”.
The other major topic in yesterday’s talks were security guarantees for Ukraine, with Trump posting afterwards that “Guarantees would be provided by the various European Countries, with a coordination with the United States of America.” Zelenskiy called the US promises “a major step forward” and added that security guarantees for Ukraine could be formalised on paper within the next 10 days. That call for progress was echoed by others, and NATO Secretary General Rutte said that “Today was really about security guarantees, US getting more involved there, and all the details to be hammered out over the coming days”. Separately, the FT reported that to help secure those security guarantees, Ukraine had offered to buy $100bn of American weapons financed by Europe.
However, there were some differences between the US and the European countries. For instance, Trump said that a ceasefire was not needed to negotiate a resolution but France’s President Macron and Germany’s Chancellor Merz favouring a ceasefire before further talks. Zelenskiy said Ukraine would not insist on a ceasefire as a pre-condition for talks. But overall the meetings struck a constructive tone and we saw positive comments from European leaders following the meeting, with the UK’s Prime Minister Starmer saying he was “very pleased” with the outcomes.
The talks didn’t deliver decisive progress, but DB’s Peter Sidorov published a note this morning (link here) where he says that this marks the start of serious talks, with the prospect for peace better than they were earlier in the year. Nevertheless, there are still major obstacles in his view – most notably in terms of the gap over territorial issues and on agreeing credible security guarantees for Ukraine that would also be accepted by Moscow.
Against that backdrop, there hasn’t been a big market reaction in response to the talks. European equity futures are up a bit overnight, with those on the Euro STOXX 50 up +0.15%, whilst DAX futures are up +0.12%. Brent crude oil prices are also down -0.66% this morning to $66.16/bbl, but that follows a +1.14% increase yesterday which occurred as the prospects of a ceasefire appeared to diminish. So overall, the meetings haven’t led to an obvious shift in market pricing, although European equity futures are outperforming their US peers this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.18%.
Meanwhile in Asian markets overnight, we haven’t seen many big moves for equities across the major indices. In Japan, the Nikkei (-0.15%) has slipped back a bit, which comes amidst weak demand at a 20yr bond auction that’s reminded investors about ongoing fiscal concerns. Bond yields have moved higher overnight as well, with the 10yr Japanese yield up +3.4bps to 1.59%. Meanwhile in South Korea, the KOSPI (-0.51%) has also lost ground for a second day running, falling to its lowest level in over two weeks. But there’s been a stronger performance for Chinese equities, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.30%) on track for its highest close since 2015, whilst the CSI 300 (+0.13%) is on course for its highest close since October.
Before the various geopolitical developments, there were some interesting moves in US Treasury markets yesterday as well, driven by growing doubts about how quickly the Fed would end up cutting rates over the months ahead. Those moves continued the trend which began last Thursday, back when the US PPI release showed producer prices rising at the fastest monthly pace since March 2022. And importantly, those concerns have lingered over recent days, given that inflation is still above the Fed’s target and expected to remain there given the tariff impact that’s filtering through. Moreover, broader measures of financial conditions are still fairly accommodative, and US IG spreads closed at their tightest since 1998 on Friday, where they remained after yesterday’s session as well.
That line of thinking meant that futures dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was down -1.4bps on the day to 53bps. So that’s down from 64bps last Wednesday before we had the PPI report, which demonstrates the scepticism about the Fed’s ability to rapidly cut rates at the next few meetings. In turn, that helped to drive a rise in Treasury yields across the curve, with the 2yr yield up +1.3bps to 3.76%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +1.5bps to 4.33%. There was also some fresh curve steepening, with the 5s30s curve up +0.5bps yesterday to its steepest since late-2021, at 108.5bps.
Meanwhile in the UK, there was a similar selloff for gilts as investors dialled back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England. Indeed, a rate cut by the December meeting was down to just a 54% probability by the close, and at one point it fell to just 45%, so for market pricing at least, another rate cut this year was seen as unlikely. As with Treasuries, that helped to drive yields higher across the curve, and the 30yr gilt yield (+4.7bps) ended the day at a post-1998 high of 5.61%, whilst the 10yr yield (+4.1bps) rose to its highest since May, at 4.74%. However, it was a different story in the rest of Europe, with yields moving lower across the continent. So yields on 10yr bunds (-2.5bps), OATs (-2.1bps) and BTPs (-3.3bps) all moved lower, whilst the 30yr German yield (-1.1bps) moved off of its post-2011 high from Friday as well.
Equities also put in a subdued performance, with the S&P 500 (-0.01%) narrowly losing ground for a second day running. The Magnificent 7 (-0.16%) saw a modest decline while Intel (-3.66%) was the second-worst performer in the S&P amid reports that the Trump administration was in discussions to take a 10% stake in the company. And overnight we then heard that SoftBank agreed to buy $2bn of Intel stock at a small discount to the last closing price. More broadly, matters weren’t helped by the more hawkish rates re-pricing, and weak data further dampened sentiment, as the NAHB’s housing market index unexpectedly fell to 32 in August (vs. 34 expected). However, there were some brighter spots, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.35%) posted a steady advance. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.08%) just about inched up to its highest level in nearly three months.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for July, along with Canada’s CPI for July. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bowman, and earnings releases include Home Depot.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Tue, 08/19/2025 - 08:25
Your Perfunctory Reminder That Markets Are Pornographically Overvalued
Your Perfunctory Reminder That Markets Are Pornographically Overvalued
Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/your-weekly-reminder-markets-are
So here we are, staring at headlines that whisper of a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal, and useless sell-side analysts that appear on CNBC daily, looking for any excuse to backfit their evergreen “buy” ratings to some type of good news that can continue to explain 40x PEs and an S&P 200,000 target are salivating.
The narrative is obvious: peace means stability, stability means growth, and growth means stocks go higher. But anyone with more than a week’s experience in markets knows how this script can actually end: not with a euphoric rally, but with a “sell the news” thud. Markets don’t run on world peace; they run on liquidity. Take Covid for example: everyone thought the bubonic plague had landed and all life as we knew it was going to stop — so naturally the NASDAQ tripled off its lows after the Fed firehosed trillions in liquidity to the nation’s uber-rich.
I joked at the time: “The year is 2030. All mankind has died from Covid. A lone server in the basement of the New York Fed continues to bid the Dow to all-time highs.”
So now, if peace gets priced as “the last bullish catalyst,” then what’s left to keep this mania levitating? Has anyone that calls themselves a contrarian thought of the removal of war headlines becoming he trigger for a reversal?
Make no mistake, a reversal is overdue. I know, I know — there’s no point in reminding anyone again, because it feels like the market is never going to go down. I’ve been wrong before, loudly, and on more than one occasion (sometimes the only thing my calls crash are my own P&L). But I also know that when the data screams “bubble,” ignoring it usually doesn’t end well.
On almost every objective measure, the market is not just expensive — it’s wildly overvalued. June 30th data from CurrentMarketValuation.com doesn’t just say “overvalued” — it says “strongly overvalued,” and it says it across nearly every single model that matters.
Take the Buffett Indicator. It’s sitting around 200% of GDP, more than two standard deviations above its long-term average. The last two times it got anywhere near this level were the dot-com peak in 2000 and again in late 2021. In both cases, investors were treated to drawdowns north of 40%.
The CAPE ratio tells the same story: hovering in the mid-30s today, more than two standard deviations above its mean. The only other times it has reached these levels were 1929 and 2000 — and we all know how those chapters ended (spoiler: not with soft landings and champagne).
The price-to-sales ratio is equally stretched. At more than three standard deviations above trend, the market is literally off the charts. That level of multiple expansion has never been sustained. Every time it’s gotten this far — whether 2000 or 2021 — it has unwound violently.
The mean reversion model, which plots the S&P 500 against its inflation-adjusted exponential trend line, has the index more than three standard deviations above where history says it should be. The last time it hit that level? Late 2021 — right before a 25% drawdown in 2022. The last time before that? 2000, which needs no introduction.
Even the interest rate model, which usually gives the market a break when yields are low, is flashing red. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 4% and the S&P 500 sitting near record highs, the model calls equities “overvalued.” Translation: even with rates this high, stocks aren’t cheap relative to bonds. The only metric not screaming bloody murder is the earnings yield gap model, which is “fairly valued.” But “fair” in this context means equities are simply less outrageously expensive compared to Treasuries — which sold off with equities on the last pullback — not that they’re a bargain.
And all of this is happening as macro conditions worsen. The latest PPI report showed producer prices running hotter than expected.
That makes it tough for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon. Positive real rates are grinding the economy to a halt slowly but steadily in the background, a drag that doesn’t show up in day-to-day stock charts but eventually bleeds into earnings. Once earnings estimates get revised down — as they inevitably will if rates stay high and costs keep creeping up — today’s stretched valuations get even worse. Expensive becomes unconscionable.
That’s when a feedback loop kicks in: weaker earnings mean weaker hiring. Job losses follow. And job losses are where my warnings about the passive bid come into play: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-passive-bid-crash-awaits
.
Retirement accounts are now north of $40 trillion, and thanks to auto-enrollment and target-date defaults, much of that is funneled into index funds whether or not valuations make sense. Passive has overtaken active management, and the big three firms — Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street — collectively control tens of trillions. Their flows don’t analyze; they just buy. The bigger the stock, the bigger the allocation. That’s how the Magnificent Seven levitate while market breadth gasps for air.
🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43
But those inflows depend on payrolls. When jobs go, contributions dry up, and redemptions accelerate as people tap savings. And here’s the dirty little secret: these funds don’t keep giant cash cushions. To meet redemptions, many have already been borrowing against credit lines instead of liquidating assets. That’s leverage by another name. It works when redemptions are small, but if they build, funds flip into forced sellers at the worst possible moment. This isn’t a side pocket of the market — it’s more than half of U.S. fund assets, wired directly into retirement accounts. Which is why I’ve argued that job losses are the silent tripwire. When payrolls crack, the passive bid cracks, and when the passive bid cracks, the market has no floor.
Now, overlay this with crypto — the most volatile risk asset of them all — which is now embedded in the plumbing of the financial system: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/crypto-will-cause-the-next-trillon
I’ve written before about Bitcoin’s “crossing the moat.” It’s no longer knocking on the door; it’s inside the castle, in 401(k)s, ETFs, and corporate treasuries. That integration means a sharp drawdown in crypto wouldn’t just be a sideshow like during the “crypto winter”— it would be a systemic shock. In 2000, it was dot-com stocks. In 2008, it was housing. Today, it could easily be crypto that tips the first domino.
History tells us how this movie ends. When valuations are this far above trend — 1929, 2000, 2008, 2021 — the aftermath isn’t gentle mean reversion. It’s collapse. And every collapse has its catalyst. Maybe it’s a crypto unwind. Maybe it’s the Fed boxed in by inflation. Maybe it’s BRICS announcing a commodity-backed settlement system. Maybe it’s peace in Ukraine, perversely, removing the last bullish narrative. Maybe it’s simply the economy slowing under the weight of positive real rates until earnings crumble. The point is, with valuations this stretched, the catalyst doesn’t matter. The conditions are already there.
And when it comes, it won’t be a glide lower. On the way up, markets climb the stairs. On the way down, they take the elevator. This market has been walking stairs for more than a decade. The elevator shaft is right below it. And sure, maybe I’ve been the idiot standing by that shaft waving “watch out” while everyone else keeps partying upstairs. But history’s pretty clear about how gravity works — even if timing it has always been my personal curse.
Have a great week ahead. Smoke if you got ‘em.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about
with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
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Tue, 08/19/2025 - 07:20
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-perfunctory-reminder-markets-are-pornographically-overvalued
Japan To Launch First Yen-Based Stablecoin
Japan To Launch First Yen-Based Stablecoin
The https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/cryptocurrencies/japan-to-greenlight-first-yen-based-stablecoin
that Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) could approve the issuance of Japan’s first yen-denominated stablecoin as early as this fall, joining a global scramble to issue stablecoins denominated in one's own currency (or linked to one's stock, in the case of multiple publicly traded companies).
The report states that fintech company JPYC will register as a funds transfer service provider and begin selling its "JPYC" stablecoin within a few weeks. JPYC has been issuing a prepaid payment instrument called “Prepaid JPYC”, but has been preparing to issue and distribute “JPYC”, an electronic payment instrument exchangeable for Japanese yen, under the revised Payment Services Act, which came into effect in 2023.
The goal is to issue 1 trillion yen ($6.81 billion) of the JPYC stablecoin over three years. It has already drawn interest from multiple parties, including hedge funds that invest in cryptocurrencies and offices that manage the assets of wealthy individuals. Expected uses include carry trades, which aim to profit from interest rate differentials.
While attention has been focused mainly on USD stablecoins, the reported approval of a yen-based stablecoin could provide impetus to the digital currency ecosystem in Japan. In results briefings by fintech companies in Jul-Aug, some expressed expectations for domestic stablecoins. For the banking industry, Goldman sees potential for fee income from areas such as custodial services and collateral management. According to JPYC, its trust-type stablecoin is issued on the Progmat Coin platform of Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.
The Nikkei article cites cross-border remittances, corporate payments, and asset management as potential applications.
However, challenges remain. One concern is the risk of fluctuation and a potential decoupling from the assumption that each stablecoin unit would trade at one yen. While stablecoins generally have lower volatility than cryptocurrencies, in legal tender one yen is always worth one yen.
Meanwhile, Goldman sees debate soon focusing on anti-money laundering measures, e.g., remittances to recipients not subject to KYC restrictions in the event that stablecoins were used/traded by unspecified parties to be redeemed for legal tender or circulated on a blockchain.
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Tue, 08/19/2025 - 05:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/japan-launch-first-yen-based-stablecoin
Putin Pressures Israel To Transfer Sprawling Christian Site In Jerusalem To Russia
Putin Pressures Israel To Transfer Sprawling Christian Site In Jerusalem To Russia
An ancient Christian area inside the walled Jerusalem Old City is at the center of diplomatic tensions between Russia and Israel, and President Putin is now openly requesting that the Netanyahu government hand over owndership to Russia.
The Alexander Courtyard is a 1,300-square-meter located near the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the Christian Quarter, and is currently front and center of the intense ownership dispute. In the packed and densely populated Old City, land of this size is huge and very significant, considering every little meter of property has been hotly fought over for many decades.
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The site, also often called simply the Russian Compound, includes the Orthodox Church of St. Alexander Nevsky - named after a 13th-century Russian warrior-prince, and has been at the heart of a long-running legal and diplomatic conflict between Israel and Russia.
The matter was reportedly raised directly during recent discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which led to the PM appointing a special committee of senior Israeli ministers in order to handle the sensitive matter
Officials throughout the drawn-out saga have pointed out that President Putin views the issue as deeply personal, not just political.
Ynet News has reviewed that the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society (OPS) has maintained de facto control over the Alexander Courtyard since its establishment in 1890.
Historical Ottoman documents list it as belonging to "the glorious Russian Empire" - though the OPS had also made formal purchase of the property.
But the Russian government has used this Ottomoman historic reference to argue that the land should now fall under Russian state ownership rather than OPS.
The OPS is a scholarly and charitable organization and insists that it is the sole owner, with both sides are appealing to the Israeli government to uphold and recognize their respective rights and claims.
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Putin's invervention has continued going back at least a half-decade. Adding to the complexity of the legal matter, in 2020 Netanyahu designated the Alexander Courtyard a "holy site" under British Mandate-era law.
In Israeli law this gives the government greater ability to decide on the matter, but the pressure from Moscow has ramped up in the meantime.
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Tue, 08/19/2025 - 04:15
Creative Chaos: Inside The CIA's Covert War To Topple The Syrian Government
Creative Chaos: Inside The CIA's Covert War To Topple The Syrian Government
https://mises.org/mises-wire/creative-chaos-inside-cias-covert-war-topple-syrian-government
For over a decade, the dominant Western narrative on the Syrian War has been simple: a peaceful uprising turned into a brutal civil war because of Bashar al-Assad’s ruthless crackdown on his own people.
But in https://www.amazon.com/Creative-Chaos-Inside-Covert-Government/dp/B0FLKPF8K1
, the Libertarian Institute’s latest book, William Van Wagenen methodically dismantles this mainstream version of events, exposing it as a convenient fiction crafted to justify one of the most disastrous regime change wars of the modern era.
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His central thesis is clear: the war in Syria was not an organic revolution but a deliberate effort by Washington, Israel, and their regional partners to weaken Iran by toppling Assad’s government.
And when peaceful protests were hijacked by Islamist militants, instead of helping restore stability, the US and its allies deliberately prevented Assad from crushing the insurgency—even as it became dominated by al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated groups.
Now, years later, the result is a fractured Syria, ruled by jihadist warlords and occupied by foreign powers, with Israel consolidating its hold over strategic territory.
How and why did this disaster for Syria’s people come to pass? And why were the non-interventionists who called out Washington’s lies always right about the war and its likely outcome?
Regime Change: The Blueprint for Syria’s Destruction
Van Wagenen carefully documents how regime change in Syria had been a goal of US foreign policy long before the Arab Spring. The Bush administration set the groundwork, but the Obama administration accelerated the effort, seeing it as a way to strike a blow against Iran without a direct war.
His research confirms that the US and its allies—including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Türkiye—actively supported and armed the so-called “moderate opposition,” despite overwhelming evidence that jihadists controlled the rebellion almost from the start.
Instead of letting the Assad government restore order, Western intelligence agencies funneled billions in arms, logistics, and training to extremist groups, ensuring the war would drag on.
The leaked 2012 email from Jake Sullivan to Hillary Clinton (which Van Wagenen references) makes this reality undeniable: “AQ [Al-Qaeda] is on our side in Syria.”
This stunning admission exposes the real nature of US policy in Syria: at the same time they fought them on the other side of the line in Iraq, Washington was directly supporting al-Qaeda-linked groups because they served its geopolitical interests.
Note: For those who haven’t read the Libertarian Institute Director Scott Horton’s book https://www.amazon.com/Enough-Already-Time-End-Terrorism/dp/1733647341
, this was a reversion to form rather than a policy innovation: Washington had, as a rule, favored the fundamentalist and radical Sunni sects over secular alternatives in the region going back decades.
A War Hijacked by Jihadists
One of the book’s most important contributions is its wholesale demolition of the “moderate rebel” myth. While establishment media outlets painted the Free Syrian Army (FSA) as a legitimate opposition force, Van Wagenen presents overwhelming evidence that the so-called moderates:
Were always outnumbered and outgunned by Islamist factions;
Frequently collaborated with or defected to al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (later HTS);
Received direct support from the CIA despite ties to terror groups
By 2013, ISIS and al-Nusra dominated the battlefield, and yet the US still prevented Assad from crushing the insurgency. As Van Wagenen documents, Washington:
Pressured Jordan to allow jihadists free movement across its border;
Supplied weapons through covert programs like Operation Timber Sycamore;
Worked with Türkiye and Saudi Arabia to keep a steady flow of foreign fighters into Syria
This policy—arming the terrorists who had just a decade previously attacked the United States, and who were attacking US forces in Iraq at the same time—wasn’t just reckless, it was criminal.
Israel’s Role: Engineering Chaos to Consolidate Power
Another key point in Van Wagenen’s book is that Israel was a major driver behind the push for Assad’s overthrow. While the establishment narrative claims Israel was just a passive observer, the book shows that Tel Aviv had a clear strategic interest in Syria’s disintegration.
Israel viewed Assad as Iran’s key ally and wanted him removed;
Israeli intelligence worked closely with Western planners to fuel the insurgency;
Once jihadists took over much of the country, Israel used this as justification for expanding its own territorial ambitions
Fast forward to today, and Van Wagenen’s prediction has come true: Syria is permanently fractured, and Israel has occupied key territories under the pretense that there is “no legitimate partner for peace.”
As Israeli officials have repeatedly argued, Syria is too unstable to negotiate with because groups like HTS (formerly al-Qaeda’s affiliate) control large parts of it. But this outcome was engineered by Israel and its allies, who spent years ensuring jihadists gained the upper hand over Assad’s forces. In effect, the war has allowed Israel to tighten its grip on occupied Golan and extend its influence into Syrian territory.
The Role of Bureaucratic Interests: Why Regime Change Always Wins
One of the most compelling themes in Van Wagenen’s book is the way he implicitly ties the Syrian War to broader structural issues in US foreign policy—particularly Public Choice Theory and the Iron Law of Bureaucracy. Public Choice Theory teaches us that politicians and government agencies act in their own self-interest, not necessarily in the interest of the public. A subset of this is the so-called “Iron Law of Bureaucracy,” which states that bureaucracies eventually prioritize their own growth and survival over their original mission. The CIA, State Department, and Pentagon all had institutional incentives to prolong the war, expand their budgets, and justify continued intervention, as Van Wagenen’s book shows.
This explains why, despite overwhelming evidence that arming jihadists would lead to disaster, the policy continued for years. The bureaucratic and political interests pushing for intervention simply had too much to gain from prolonging the war.
The Devastating Human Cost
While Van Wagenen’s book is primarily focused on the geopolitical machinations behind the war, he never loses sight of the human cost of Washington’s policies:
Hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed;
Syria’s minority populations—Alawites, Christians, Druze, and Shiites—were slaughtered or driven into exile;
Millions became refugees, fueling instability across the region and in Europe
Rather than bringing “freedom” to Syria, US intervention ensured endless war, ethnic cleansing, and the rise of brutal jihadist warlords.
Final Verdict: A Devastating Indictment of US Foreign Policy
Creative Chaos: Inside the CIA’s Covert War to Topple the Syrian Government is a deeply-researched, compelling, and devastating critique of Western intervention in Syria. Van Wagenen’s book should be required reading for anyone who wants to understand how Washington and its allies systematically engineered one of the most destructive conflicts of the 21st century. He methodically dismantles the legacy media’s lies, exposes the CIA’s reckless support for jihadists, and highlights Israel’s long-term strategic interest in Syria’s collapse.
For those who still believe that US intervention is a force for good in the world, this book is a wake-up call. Syria was not a “humanitarian” war. It was a calculated, brutal regime change operation that destroyed a nation for the sake of geopolitical gain. And, as Van Wagenen warns, despite the non-interventionists having always been right, it likely won’t be the last.
Washington must stop its meddling. This is a message particularly timely as Trump seems more and more inclined toward furthering US involvement in the region.
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Mon, 08/18/2025 - 23:25
Mamdani's "Affordability" Agenda Could Be Extremely Costly
Mamdani's "Affordability" Agenda Could Be Extremely Costly
Submitted by https://openthebooks.substack.com/p/mamdanis-affordability-agenda-could
Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist likely to be the next mayor of New York City, won the June democratic primary https://archive.ph/WykE5
of making the city more affordable. His plans include more free or low-cost services, including creating city-owned grocery stores, making all city buses free, freezing rents on stabilized apartments, providing free childcare and raising taxes on the wealthy.
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While that’s worrisome enough in a city facing potential https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-12/nyc-may-face-annual-budget-gaps-of-13-billion-dinapoli-says?embedded-checkout=true
, a far more insidious threat to a Mamdani-run city are his anti-law enforcement and pro-offender stances and policy prescriptions.
The shooting rampage in midtown – which left an office dead — put those positions back in the spotlight, even spurring a press conference in which Mamdani downplayed old comments. He https://www.foxnews.com/politics/damage-control-mamdanis-blatant-flip-flop-defunding-police-ripped-political-theatre
to frustration over the death of George Floyd.
Detractors say his views could flip the country’s largest city from being https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/nyc-ranks-safest-among-big-us-cities-gun-violence-new-research-nyu-tandon-school-engineering
. His supporters counter that the mayor isn’t unilaterally powerful; additional sanctuary policies and major changes to police budgets and operations require approval from the City County or the State Assembly.
But the truth is, if elected, Mamdani would only be joining a large group of city and state politicians who have taken the radical left road of supporting those under arrest more than those who are victims of crimes.
And New Yorkers are already paying them handsomely.
While they support elements of critical legal theory and so-called racial justice, they are pulling in six-figure public salaries from the Assembly to the City Council to the comptroller’s office.
Expanding Sanctuary City Status
Mamdani is inherently anti-law enforcement, be it the NYPD, corrections officers or federal agents like Immigration and Customs Enforcement. His social media posts and comments while running for and holding the office of state assembly member https://nypost.com/2025/07/10/us-news/mamdani-twitter-meltdown-shows-hes-no-leader/
that he dislikes police and wants to defund them. Now he claims he won’t.
But in fact, Mamdani sees NYC’s sanctuary city laws as too weak. Under current policy no one is asked their immigration status; homeless migrants are given free housing, food and https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/nyregion/migrant-debit-cards.html
; and police are forbidden to cooperate with ICE on immigration matters.
Currently the NYPD still works with federal law enforcement like FBI and Homeland Security in cases where noncitizens have been convicted of serious or violent crimes. But Mamdani has said he would further restrict cooperation with federal authorities.
“The Trump administration is waging war on the First Amendment and our constitutional rights as it continues to abduct New Yorkers from across our city, “ he https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/06/25/every-question-zohran-mamdani-meet-your-mayor-answer/
leading up to the primary. “Any effort to cooperate with these efforts is a moral stain on our city. We should strengthen our sanctuary city laws.”
Restricting — and Defunding? — Police
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The NYPD is understaffed — it has 6,000 fewer cops than it did in 2000 when the force peaked at 40,000.
And it’s losing more every day.
Scott Munro, president of the Detectives’ Endowment Association, said there were 7,200 detectives before 9/11, but https://pix11.com/news/local-news/not-going-to-sugarcoat-it-nypd-faces-staffing-crisis/
. As of March, almost 400 had filed for retirement this year.
Michael Alcazar, a former NYPD detective who now teaches criminal justice at John Jay College, said the average detective is now https://pix11.com/news/local-news/not-going-to-sugarcoat-it-nypd-faces-staffing-crisis/
while also working patrol shifts.
Police officers continue to leave in droves, attracted by better pay elsewhere or frustrated by anti-police sentiment. The police commissioner has called it a https://pix11.com/news/local-news/not-going-to-sugarcoat-it-nypd-faces-staffing-crisis/
The shrunken police force is also hampered by the new "How Many Stops Act" that mandates they collect and report data on all investigative encounters with the public. That includes low-level encounters not previously recorded, like helping a tourist with directions or helping a sick train passenger. Good Samaritanism now requires paperwork.
Unsurprisingly, https://pix11.com/news/local-news/not-going-to-sugarcoat-it-nypd-faces-staffing-crisis/
of over 16 minutes for 911 calls, the highest times found in records dating back to the mid-1990s.
That’s as police work mandatory overtime; taxpayers have spent an unprecedented $1.2 billion on it so far in FY 2025. That’s more than twice what was budgeted for the year.
While Mamdani has walked back his years-long call to defund the police, claiming he won’t make workforce cuts, but https://docs.google.com/document/d/1a7ejjSZWWIAcxfcWnkYaqvnjihTb0LAOQkj8g10-npg/edit?tab=t.0
the police overtime budget. That’s tantamount to cutting the force when billions of dollars in enforcement happen beyond normal shift hours.
Instead, he wants to fund a Department of Community Safety that will have expanded “violence interrupter” programs and mental health teams, to the tune of $1.1 billion.
The budget would consist of $605 million transferred from existing city programs, and $455 million in new funding. He plans to raise it through increased property taxes in areas Mamdani has described as “richer and whiter.”
The democratic socialist also plans to eliminate the NYPD’s https://archive.ph/o/IfGMV/https:/www.nytimes.com/2024/05/19/nyregion/brooklyn-protest-palestinian-police.html
that responds to protests.
Mamdani’s https://docs.google.com/document/d/1a7ejjSZWWIAcxfcWnkYaqvnjihTb0LAOQkj8g10-npg/edit?tab=t.0
the new Department of Community Safety will alleviate police workload so they can “do their actual jobs” and have the new department “fill the gaps of our programs and services.”
If he was interested in police doing their jobs, he’d alter his plan to cut their overtime and transfer some calls to social workers.
The police rank-and-file have said https://nypost.com/2025/06/28/us-news/electing-socialist-zohran-mamdani-nyc-mayor-would-spur-cop-exodus-rising-crime-experts/
if Mamdani is elected.
Releasing the Prisoners
Plans to close the Rikers Island jail complex and open borough-based jails have been in the works since the administration of Bill de Blasio, and with it has come the need to trim the jail population.
As of March, https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/03/20/rikers-population-tops-7000/
(planned for all boroughs except Staten Island) are expected to hold 4,160 people beginning in 2027, at a cost of $16 billion.
This spring, NYC jails were turned over to a federal receiver — or independent manager — since jail officials https://nypost.com/2025/05/13/us-news/federal-judge-seizes-control-of-nycs-jail-system-rikers-island/
that a court-appointed federal monitor team address issues like excessive force and violence in jails.
Jails have not become any less violent, and the Mayor Eric Adams administration has seen an uptick in arrests, bolstering a jail population that liberal leaders hoped would be dwindling by now.
But more arrests doesn’t mean more people staying in jail.
Since 2020, New York State https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/live-updates/new-york-bail-reform-timeline/
and pre-trial detention for most cases involving misdemeanors and lower-level felonies.
The law made release rather than detention the default in these cases, and those arrested for anything from assault, to burglary, robbery, arson, and many drug offenses, are back on the streets the next day.
In the first full year no cash bail was implemented, https://archive.ph/iYaXM#selection-6719.0-6719.353
on violent felony charges — assault, rape and attempted murder — while their initial cases were still pending.
Of the 98,145 cases where individuals were released in that first year, nearly one-third led to a new arrest (mostly misdemeanors and nonviolent felonies) while their initial cases were still pending.
State legislators have amended the law since it passed in 2019 to give judges some discretion, although most crimes are still not eligible for bail.
Mamdani argues, it isn’t lenient enough.
To slim down the number of incarcerated, he’s said he would work with district attorneys to release more people pretrial or divert others from prosecution, https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/06/25/every-question-zohran-mamdani-meet-your-mayor-answer/
.
He said there’s a need to invest in alternatives for incarceration, including https://gaycitynews.com/nyc-mayoral-hopefuls-2025-lgbtq-forum/
.
Other Leaders Failing NYC Residents
Mamdani’s blunt, candid policy comments in past years – paired with his proud declaration that he’s a democratic socialist – have made him a lightning rod. But plenty of current elect leaders are also radicals – out of touch with regular New Yorkers who want their streets clean and safe.
Their progressive policies, including those that make it harder for police to do their jobs, have paved the way for Mamdani to be attractive to enough voters to get him into City Hall.
When the City Council voted to pass the “How Many Stops Act,” Mayor Eric Adams, a former cop, vetoed it. But the council overrode his veto, implementing a law designed to tie the hands of police and make them think twice about engaging someone they see on the street.
Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, a progressive activist who runs the watchdog arm of the city government, backed that bill, not at all shocking given https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13894373/nyc-residents-fear-eric-adams-indictment-liberal-dystopia.html
during 2020 Black Lives Matter protests in the city. Willaims raked in $184,800 from taxpayers last year.
When police do make arrests, oftentimes a District Attorney won’t prosecute if they’re anywhere other than Staten Island. DAs in the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens and Brooklyn have effectively rewritten the city’s laws on their own.
“If you’re interested in stealing a car, the absolute best place to do it in New York City is in the Bronx,” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-PF1YcqoOM
, referring to Bronx DA Darcel Clark. “Why? Because chances are good that you’ll only be charged with misdemeanor criminal possession of stolen property and then sent on your way.”
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg decided in 2022 to https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/06/us/alvin-bragg-manhattan-district-attorney-crimes-prosecution
for marijuana misdemeanors, including selling more than three ounces. He also stopped charging for not paying public transportation fare, trespassing except a fourth degree stalking charge, resisting arrest, obstructing governmental administration in certain cases, and prostitution. Bragg, who gained brief fame in his attempt to prosecute President Trump, collects $232,600 from taxpayers.
Queens DA Melinda Katz and Brooklyn DA Eric Gonzalez stopped prosecuting https://www.brooklynda.org/2021/01/29/brooklyn-district-attorney-eric-gonzalez-dismisses-all-outstanding-prostitution-related-warrants/
. Like Bragg, they each make $232,600 per year.
NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran against Mamdani, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and eight others in the June democratic primary for mayor, received 11% of votes. His latest attempt to get some good press with progressives included https://apnews.com/article/brad-lander-nyc-immigration-court-arrest-6ed341297efab31a08a14421674d8ed8
by ICE agents while trying to help an immigrant escape arrest at a courthouse — with lots of reporters present.
He and Mamdani brokered a https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/02/brad-lander-is-riding-a-wave-of-good-will-00436553
that had Lander on the election-night stage with Mamdani as he celebrated his primary win.
Lander, as formal a Mamdani backer as can be, makes $209,050 from taxpayers. But in overseeing the city’s budget and pension funds, he’s made ideology a priority and come up relatively short for retirees.
According to https://www.city-journal.org/article/new-york-city-mayoral-election-brad-lander-comptroller
Since Lander took on the role in 2022, the pension funds have https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/new-york-city-pension-funds-returns
—during one of the strongest bull markets in living memory.
He moved more funds https://comptroller.nyc.gov/services/financial-matters/pension/responsible-investing/overview
No clear economic justification exists for any of these decisions.
It’s not just in New York City where radical policies take hold.
Statewide, members of the New York State Legislature not only voted in 2019 for ending the use of cash bail and pre-trial detention for many cases, they https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-york-legislature-salary-raise-outside-income-limit/
in December 2022.
For comparison, NYPD recruits start at https://nypdrecruit.com/pages/police-officer-salary-benefits
, working in a city filled with elected officials who keep making the job less and less attractive. While cops can retire on much higher pay, many never get there, leaving for greener pastures with better pay and where officials have the backs of police officers.
The $1.2 billion spent on mandatory overtime last fiscal year represents 17% of the total police payroll. “Other” pay represents another 12%.
So while Mamdani says he won’t cut the police budget, all his proposals look an awful lot like cuts: slashing overtime and https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/09/nyregion/mamdani-jessica-tisch-nypd.html
means a force already stretched thin will have to do more with less.
Salaries Of Radical NY Officials
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*Was $110,000 in 2019 when they passed the bail reform bill. Members gave themselves a 29% pay raise in December 2022.
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Mon, 08/18/2025 - 22:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mamdanis-affordability-agenda-could-be-extremely-costly
Trump Says Putin, Zelensky To Soon Meet, 'Everyone Very Happy' About Chances For Peace
Trump Says Putin, Zelensky To Soon Meet, 'Everyone Very Happy' About Chances For Peace
Update1835ET: President Trump has issued a major statement following the high stakes afternoon meetings with Ukraine's Zelensky, who finally put on a suit this time, and seven EU leaders.
Trump announced that he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone and initiated plans for a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. There is further after that a trilateral meeting coming, at an as yet undisclosed time and place. He called the development "very good" and said "everyone is very happy about the possibility of PEACE". So far, Russian state media has reacted only vaguely with the following via https://tass.com/world/2004305
:
US President Donald Trump interrupted his talks with Vladimir Zelensky and European leaders to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, Germany’s Bild newspaper reports, citing its Deputy Editor-in-Chief Paul Ronzheimer.
According to Bild, the White House consultations are expected to continue after the call.
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TASS futher noted that "Trump said on Monday that making a peace agreement did not require a ceasefire for Ukraine because hostilities could not prevent the parties from working on a deal."
Trump seems to be presenting this as a breakthrough, but much will be determined in the coming hours and days based on the Kremlin's interpretation of all of this.
Earlier, some visible tensions in the room...
🚨 OMG...the Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni's reaction is *PRICELESS* as Germany Chancellor Merz is lecturing Trump that he needs to go to a ceasefire with Putin instead of a full peace deal.
She just keeps rolling her eyes 🤣😭 the plan was NOT to do a ceasefire. Trump… https://t.co/9fF72oB0U4
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1957533038172098898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Update(1545ET): A big talking point from today has been security guarantees - with European leaders and the US appearing to be on the same page so far, and of course Zelensky is welcoming this as well.
As a reminder, the Kremlin has said over and over again that it would never accept Western troops enforcing anything inside Ukraine...
BREAKING: President Trump says "Putin agreed that Russia would accept security guarantees for Ukraine, and this is one of the key points that we need to consider" https://t.co/4vRjkzFsyH
— Fox News (@FoxNews) https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/1957519728362033623?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Update(1320ET): President Trump clearly appreciated that Zelensky actually showed up at the White House in a suit, in all black, after the Ukrainian delegation pulled up and quickly was welcomed into the White House.
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Here's how RT presented one somewhat wild exchange during the opening press Q&A inside the Oval Office:
Reporter: Are you open to holding elections in your country?
Zelensky: Of course... *then lists every reason not to hold one*
Trump: So if we’re at war 3.5 years from now — no more elections? Room bursts into laughter
Clearly Zelensky didn't want to risk offending Trump before the high-stakes meeting - which also involves seven EU leaders - before it even started.
Zelensky followed the instructions and put on a suit to meet President Trump.https://t.co/Zg4LzL8pzI
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1957492941896970736?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
* * *
Ukraine's President Zelensky has arrived in Washington with an entourage of European leaders sizeable enough that one wonders where they will all fit within the Oval Office for the highly anticipated meeting with President Trump to talk Ukraine peace, after Friday's big - and controversial - Putin summit in Alaska.
No less than seven EU leaders are traveling to be there, including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.
"We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably. And peace must be lasting," Zelensky stated while en route to Washington. "I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, effectively guarantee security, and that our people will always be grateful to President Trump, everyone in America, and every partner and ally for their support and invaluable assistance. Russia must end this war, which it itself started."
The European leaders will no doubt show up wearing the appropriate attire, but will Zelensky be in a suit this time? The White House has actually requested it. "The White House asked Ukrainian officials if President Volodymyr Zelensky will wear a suit to his meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, two sources with direct knowledge tell Axios," https://www.axios.com/2025/08/18/trump-zelensky-summit-suit-jacket
.
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The hightly 'constructive' and positive meeting in Alaska resulted in Putin suggesting a tentative agreement had been reached after meeting with the US president, while Trump downplayed the outcome by reminding, "There’s no deal until there’s a deal." In a subsequent interview, Trump noted that any agreement would require Ukraine’s approval and said he would advise the Zelensky government to consider making a deal - and no doubt this caused the Europeans a sigh of relief.
Currently there remain mixed messages coming from within the Trump administration about how much progress is being made, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicating that a ceasefire is still on the table - and that compromises will have to be made by both sides, including on the area of territory.
Bloomberg in fresh analysis has pointed out that jumping straight into peace negotiations could benefit Putin by giving him time to improve his position on the battlefield and the ability to shift the blame to Zelensky if talks fall through. Sanctions would also be delayed, and the chances of new sanctions currently appear low. Zelensky and European leaders are expected to push back against this possibility - which would leave Putin in the driver's seat with little consequences - in their discussions with Trump.
Below are some likely outcome scenarios and fresh analysis via Bloomberg:
Zelenkiy’s key aims are securing a lasting ceasefire, NATO-like security guarantees, and sustained sanctions on Russia if Moscow rejects peace terms. He will also insist on participation in all talks, stressing that decisions about Ukraine’s future require Ukrainian input.
Ukraine has signaled some flexibility on de facto control along current frontlines, but refuses to formally cede territory, including Crimea, seeing this as unconstitutional and a prelude to further Russian aggression. Kyiv also rejects any limits on its military or European Union aspirations, as well as Russian demands on domestic issues such as language rights.
Ukraine is likely to reject any Russian proposal to withdraw from the fortified 25% of Donetsk it controls in exchange for Russia leaving small pockets in Kharkiv and Sumy. Kyiv sees Donetsk as vital to its defense and a barrier to further offensives, while Russia’s presence in Kharkiv and Sumy carries little strategic value, making such a deal unattractive.
Zelenskiy also remains wary of deals without enforceable security guarantees, given Moscow’s record of treaty violations. Ukraine’s strategy is to resist pressure for unfavorable terms while preserving unity with European allies.
Meanwhile, European leaders will seek to ensure Kyiv’s interests are fully reflected in any settlement. They will also likely press Washington to support a credible, European-led framework to deter Russia from future offensives, while urging Trump that economic pressure on Moscow must intensify unless Putin shows genuine readiness to end the war.
Bloomberg Trump-Zelensky meeting matrix on each side's desired outcomes:
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"The bottom line is that a swift peace deal remains unlikely, given the gulf between Kyiv and Moscow," concludes Bloomberg. "The challenge for Zelenskiy and European leaders is to accommodate Trump’s push for a quick win, while avoiding a settlement deeply unfavorable to Ukraine and Europe’s security."
Delegations are expected arrive around midday, and several hours of meetings will follow. The schedule:
Noon (16:00 GMT): European leaders arrive at the White House.
1pm (17:00 GMT): Zelenskyy arrives at the White House.
1:15pm (17:15 GMT): Meeting held between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
2:15pm (18:15 GMT): Trump greets the European leaders in the State Dining Room.
2:30pm (18:30 GMT): A “family photo” taken in Cross Hall.
3pm (19:00 GMT): A multilateral meeting held in the East Room.
* * *
Below are more details and headline news stories related to Ukraine and Russia, and what to watch out for today, via Newsquawk:
MONDAY
White House said US President Trump will greet Ukrainian President Zelensky at 13:00EDT/18:00BST on Monday and will participate in a bilateral meeting with Zelensky at 13:15EDT/18:15BST, while European leaders will arrive at the White House on Monday at 12:00EDT/17:00BST and President Trump will greet European leaders at 14:15EDT/19:15BST with a multilateral meeting to take place at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
"European leaders have 3 main goals in DC today 1) pin down more details on poss US security guarantees; 2) work on preparations for the poss trilateral Putin, Zelensky & Trump meeting, and 3) push back forcefully on the idea of “land swaps", via Eurasia.
US
US President Trump said they made great progress in the meeting with Russian President Putin which he said was "a 10" and there are just a few points left to agree upon and a few things left to resolve, but added there is no deal until there is a deal and there are one or two significant items left to agree on and it is ultimately up to NATO and Ukraine to agree. Trump said they negotiated on NATO, security and land, while he also stated that he could meet Putin again soon and could see a Moscow meeting possibly happening, as well as noted that Putin wants to see an end to the killing like he does.
US President Trump commented on Truth Social that it was a great and very successful day in Alaska and that the meeting with Russian President Putin went very well, as did a late-night phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Trump added it was determined by all that the best way to end the Russia-Ukraine war is to go directly to a peace agreement and not a mere ceasefire agreement which often does not hold. Furthermore, he said Zelensky will visit the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, and if all works out, they will then schedule a meeting with Putin.
US President Trump posted "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!"
US Special Envoy Witkoff said US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed at their summit that the US would be able to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Rubio said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to get a peace deal and there were things discussed in the Trump-Putin meeting that have potential for breakthroughs to end the war. Rubio suggested that to end the war, there are things Russia and Ukraine want but cannot get and it may not be possible for the US to create a scenario to end the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, he said security guarantees will be discussed in Monday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and others, while Rubio added that he is not saying they are on the verge of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, but they saw enough movement to justify a follow-up meeting with Zelensky.
US President Trump said in a pre-recorded interview with Fox that if they have to do sanctions, they will do it and the next meeting will have both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin.
UKRAINE
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is ready for constructive cooperation and will travel to Washington D.C. on Monday, while he added that Ukraine reaffirms its readiness to work with maximum effort to achieve peace and the call with US President Trump and Europeans discussed positive signals and lasted for more than 90 minutes. Furthermore, he said Ukraine supports President Trump’s proposal for a trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia. It was separately reported that Zelensky said he emphasised to Trump that pressure on Russia should be stepped up and noted that security must be guaranteed reliably and in the long term.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced he arrived in the US and is grateful to President Trump for the invitation, while he added that they all equally want to end this war swiftly and securely, as well as hopes their shared strength with America and European friends will compel Russia to real peace.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukrainian forces saw a success for a second day in a row repelling a Russian assault near Dobropillya and Russia might step up frontline attacks in the coming days. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s military said its forces advanced up to two kilometres on the Sumy front.
RUSSIA
Russian President Putin said he is sincerely interested in ending the conflict, but all ‘root causes’ must be eliminated and all Russia’s concerns must be taken into account. Putin said negotiations were productive and useful. Putin said the personal meeting has been overdue and was necessary to rectify the situation, while he hopes that a mutual understanding will bring peace to Ukraine and he agrees with US President Trump on the need for Ukraine’s security. Furthermore, he said the agreements should be a starting point and that a Russia-US Investment partnership has huge potential. It was also reported that Putin told Trump that if Ukraine fully withdraws from eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russia would freeze the front line in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. It was also reported that the Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.
Senior Russian diplomat said Russia agrees any future peace agreement on Ukraine must provide security guarantees to Kyiv, but Moscow also needs guarantees, while the official said the West has not been thinking about security guarantees for Russia, and this needs to be corrected with Moscow ready to assist.
Russia said its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 300 Ukrainian drones, while it announced it hit a storage site for Ukrainian Sapsan operational-tactical missiles, according to IFAX. It was also reported that Russia’s FSB security service said it prevented a Ukrainian drone attack on the Smolensky nuclear power plant.
EUROPE
European leaders have been invited to join US President Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on Monday and it was reported that UK PM Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian PM Meloni, Finland’s President Stubb, European Commission President von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Rutte will join the Trump-Zelensky meeting on Monday.
European leaders issued a joint statement on the Trump-Putin summit in which they stated that they welcome US President Trump’s efforts and support for providing security guarantees, while they added that Russia cannot have a veto on Ukraine’s pathway to the EU and NATO.
EU Council President Costa said transatlantic unity is paramount at this moment to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine and if no ceasefire is agreed, the EU and the US must increase pressure on Russia, while he added that Ukraine’s sovereign right to determine its conditions for peace must be respected.
EU Commission spokesperson said Ukraine’s allies held a positive exchange ahead of Monday’s meeting with US President Trump and the video conference focused on key matters such as the need to stop the killing in Ukraine and the commitment to maintain full pressure on Russia via sanctions.
German Chancellor Merz said the US is ready to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine, while he added they would have liked there to have been an agreement on a ceasefire and stated there are no territorial negotiations on Ukraine that are going over the heads of the Europeans. It was separately reported that Germany’s Foreign Minister said any Ukraine peace agreement requires security guarantees for Ukraine, and that Europe is ready to provide them together with the US.
French President Macron said the situation ahead of talks in Washington is extremely serious for Ukraine and Europe, while he added they want Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected and want a strong and lasting peace for Ukraine. Macron said their goal for talks on Monday is to present a united front between Ukraine and its European allies, as well as warned that if they show weakness today in front of Russia, they are laying the ground for future conflicts. Furthermore, Macron said he thinks the answer is no to the question of whether he thinks Russian President Putin wants peace.
Statement from the Nordic Baltic eight leaders noted that they will continue to arm Ukraine and enhance Europe’s defences to deter further Russian aggression, while they will continue to strengthen sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy.
* * *
And below is John Mearsheimer on the aftermath of the Alaska Summit:
The desired next step for Trump is to see Presidents Putin and Zelensky in the same room, to settle on a final deal to end the war in Ukraine, and reports have suggested Trump wants to make this happen as soon as Friday, but what happens Monday could be a large determining factor.
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Mon, 08/18/2025 - 18:35
Are You Drowning Too?: Vegetables Are Up 38.9%, Coffee Up 25%, And Electricity Prices Are Rising Twice As Fast As Inflation
Are You Drowning Too?: Vegetables Are Up 38.9%, Coffee Up 25%, And Electricity Prices Are Rising Twice As Fast As Inflation
Do you feel knots in your stomach due to financial stress? If so, you certainly have lots of company. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about the cost of living and prices are rising https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/inflation-is-out-of-control-again-and-we-are-getting-slammed-by-double-digit-price-increases-in-every-direction/
all around us. There are so many people out there right now that feel like they are “drowning” because no matter how hard they try there simply isn’t enough money for everything. Unfortunately, we are being warned to brace ourselves for even more inflation in the months ahead.
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When I heard that the cost of vegetables in the United States had gone up by 40 percent in one month, I thought that there was no way that it could be true.
So I looked it up, and I discovered that the cost of vegetables in the United States didn’t go up by 40 percent in one month.
…
A 38.9% increase in prices for fresh and dry vegetables from June to July was the major driver of a higher index for “final demand goods” (things that are done and ready to be sold to a consumer, as opposed to things that go into a later production process).
That is nuts!
How can the cost of vegetables go up by 38.9 percent in a single month?
Apparently this was the largest spike that we have ever witnessed in a summer month https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/veggie-flation-strikes-with-a-warning-for-grocery-prices/ar-AA1Kx4L1?ocid=BingNewsSerp#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20economy%20has%20a,at%20the%20grocery%20store%20soon.
…
Per Bureau of Labor Statistics data, it’s also the largest monthly increase ever recorded in a summer month (June-August), in figures that go back to 1947.
The other day, I wrote about how beef https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/inflation-is-out-of-control-again-and-we-are-getting-slammed-by-double-digit-price-increases-in-every-direction/
that it is now considered to be a “luxury”.
Well, now vegetables are a “luxury” too.
And let’s not forget coffee.
The price of coffee went up https://thehill.com/business/personal-finance/5453194-trump-tariffs-grocery-prices/
in just three months, and that was before coffee exports from Brazil were hit with a 50 percent tariff…
Coffee prices were already up before a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, the top coffee importer to the U.S., went into effect last week.Coffee prices sharply rose 25 percent over the past three months, according to inflation data released Tuesday. Reuters reported Tuesday that Brazilian coffee exports have started seeing postponements to their U.S. shipments.
About two-thirds of all U.S. adults drink coffee.
This is one of the most basic things that Americans buy.
But now a lot of people are either going to have to cut back or stop drinking it entirely because it has become so ridiculously expensive.
Air conditioning is rapidly becoming a “luxury” as well.
Electricity prices have been rising twice as fast as the overall rate of inflation, and some seniors must now choose between https://www.npr.org/2025/08/16/nx-s1-5502671/electricity-bill-high-inflation-ai
…
Across the country, electricity prices have jumped more than twice as fast as the overall cost of living in the last year. That’s especially painful during the dog days of summer, when air conditioners are working overtime.
In Pembroke Pines, Fla., Al Salvi’s power bill can reach $500 a month.
“There’s a lot of seniors down here that are living check to check. They can barely afford prescriptions such as myself,” says Salvi, who’s 63 and uses a wheelchair. “Now we got to decide whether we’re going to pay the electric bill or are we going to buy medication. And it’s not fair to us. You’re squeezing us between a rock and a hard place.”
As our leaders were borrowing trillions upon trillions of dollars that we did not have, I warned that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but a lot of people out there didn’t want to listen.
And as the Federal Reserve was pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars that they created out of thin air into the financial system, I warned that this was going to cause rampant inflation, but a lot of people out there didn’t want to listen.
At first it seemed like our leaders were totally getting away with it.
But now look at what has happened.
There are countless videos on TikTok right now of people breaking down emotionally over the rising cost of living.
In one video, a woman that feels like she is “drowning” explains that no matter how hard she works https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/unacceptable-marjorie-taylor-greene-shares-video-of-woman-in-tears-over-financial-stress/
…
The video made by “diannaallen5” for TikTok was shared on X by @WallStreetApes to their 1 million X followers, writing, “Americans are breaking down, a grown woman crying because she can’t afford to live anymore.”
The woman in the video, who said she is from Illinois, was distraught and in tears as she spoke, saying that “gas prices and the electric bills and the prices of food is just so overwhelming.”
“I’m wondering if anybody else is feeling like they’re drowning and they can’t get out,” she said. “I work overtime, and I cannot get above water. I mean, I literally have no gas for next week.”
“I’m just wondering if anybody else feels like they’re drowning,” she said is despair.
Can you identify with her?
I think that a lot of us can.
are experiencing “stressflation”…
A LifeStance Health survey released today reveals “stressflation” is affecting most Americans, with 83% reporting financial stress driven by inflation, mass layoffs, the rising cost of living and recession fears. Millennials and Gen Z report the most significant mental health impacts.
The number of respondents who have been deterred from seeking mental health care due to financial constraints remains consistently high (60%), increasing two percentage points from 2024. Those experiencing high financial stress levels are more than twice as likely to forgo mental health treatment due to cost, highlighting a mental health gap where financial strain exacerbates mental health challenges while limiting access to care.
We should have seen this coming way in advance, because we were specifically warned that this was coming.
And if we stay on the same road that we have been traveling, https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F4DN45KX
.
A lot of people out there don’t seem to understand that consequences do not always show up immediately.
What we are experiencing now is the result of decades of bad decisions.
It took time for the consequences of those bad decisions to materialize, but now they have officially started to arrive.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F4DN45KX
.
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Mon, 08/18/2025 - 18:25
Senior Israeli Official Arrested In Vegas Pedophile Sting Is Released - And Flies Home
Senior Israeli Official Arrested In Vegas Pedophile Sting Is Released - And Flies Home
It looks like America's "special relationship" with Israel may have paid off big for an alleged pedophile: A https://archive.fo/zKTGW
official in Israel's cybersecurity agency was arrested in Las Vegas for allegedly attempting to use the internet to lure a child into sexual abuse, only to be released on bond and somehow allowed to go back to Israel. There's no indication he was covered by diplomatic immunity.
Tom Alexandrovich, who helps guide his country's cybersecurity policy, was https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/16/nevada-arrest-israeli-official
bond at the Henderson Detention Center.
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As the news broke, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reflexively denied Alexandrovich had done anything wrong, claiming that “the employee, who does not hold a diplomatic visa, https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1mscw0del
Subsequently confronted with court records, Israel's Cyber Directorate said the earlier false statement “was accurate based on the information provided to us," and that Alexandrovich is now on leave "by mutual decision."
It's not clear why or how he was allowed to return to Israel, which has a reputation as a haven for pedophiles who prey on American children. Citing a Jewish watchdog group, a 2020 CBS News report found that, in just the previous six years, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-jewish-american-pedophiles-hide-from-justice-in-israel/
, taking advantage of Israel's "Right of Return" law that lets any Jew in the world enjoy instant citizenship. Though these individuals -- who include both suspects and convicts -- are technically subject to extradition to the United States, Israeli police have been accused of assigning low priority to these cases and -- perhaps because of that -- US agencies are accused of failing to aggressively pursue extradition.
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Speaking of US disinterest, while major Israeli media outlets have covered the Alexandrovich story, the arrest of a senior Israeli government official on a child-sex-crime charge and his subsequent flight to Israel has received no coverage whatsoever from major US media at the time this story is being written -- which is well more than day after the story broke.
Alexandrovich's duties involved the development of Israel's “Cyber Dome” program, which aims to protect civilians from harm inflicted via computers. In a similarly ironic vein, one of the other men caught in the sting was Neal Harrison Creecy, a https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1mscw0del
at Las Vegas Redemption Church, who promptly resigned after posting bail. He has reportedly confessed his sins to earthly authorities.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 - 18:00
Bud Light Considers Tapping Sydney Sweeney To Rehab Tarnished Image
Bud Light Considers Tapping Sydney Sweeney To Rehab Tarnished Image
Authored by https://headlineusa.com/author/bensellers
,
What started as a joke may soon become a multimillion-dollar reality as https://headlineusa.com/tag/anheuser-busch
marketing executives were reported last week to be in serious consideration for a deal with actress and American Eagle model Sydney Sweeney.
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The https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14984983/Sydney-Sweeney-Bud-Light-trans-fiasco-deal.html
that the blonde bombshell could net $10 million dollars in a Bud Light deal currently under consideration.
“Sydney Sweeney’s American Eagle campaign delivered undeniable commercial impact— denim sales surged and the brand’s stock climbed,” said entertainment lawyer https://www.manatt.com/christopher-chatham
, an expert in negotiating celebrity endorsements.
“That kind of performance makes her a compelling candidate for Bud Light, especially as the brand considers options in responding to past criticism,” Chatham added. “Beer brands pay for reach, resilience, and relevance—and Sweeney delivers all three, so it would not be surprising if a Bud Light endorsement deal were to approach or potentially reach the seven-figure range.”
The two have been flip sides of a cautionary tale on the power conservatives have in the marketplace amid pressures from the https://headlineusa.com/tag/esg-movement
to use branding as political virtue-signaling.
Bud Light, once a staple for the St. Louis-based beer manufacturer, lost nearly a quarter of its sales—roughly $1.4 billion in annual revenue—after outrage conservatives boycotted the brand for its promotion of transgender personality https://headlineusa.com/tag/dylan-mulvaney
in 2023.
due to the woke misstep.
It has since tried and failed to rehab its tarnished image, including https://headlineusa.com/ufc-makes-bud-light-official-beer/
on conservative-friendly outlets and programs.
That included Fox News comedian https://headlineusa.com/tag/jimmy-failla
.
“Teaming up with Sweeney would mark a return to the Golden Age of beer sales, where catering to the customer’s preferences was far more important than trying to align them with the woke White chicks screaming into their iPHONES on TIK TOK,” Failla wrote.
It is unclear whether the youth-oriented clothing manufacturer intentionally set off a firestorm when it began the campaign, which leftists have https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2025-08-01/ad-with-sydney-sweeney-not-nazi-propaganda-dhs-campaign
for suggesting that Sweeney’s Aryan features should be given a positive value judgment.
The attacks ultimately resulted in a sort of https://www.britannica.com/topic/Streisand-effect
.
Sydney Sweeney showed off her skills at the gun range.
As if we don't have enough reasons to love her. https://t.co/nPx3vZ4hof
— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) https://twitter.com/TaraBull808/status/1952481212632801534?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Even President Donald Trump weighed in, further lifting the public profile of the 27-year-old “Euphoria” actress with a lengthy post on Truth Social.
Trump actually posted a Sydney Sweeney post for real! LMAO 😂 👏🏼 https://t.co/vCfSNVDwy9
— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1952372886221775225?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Many have noted that American Eagle itself has also used non-white pitch-models, such as left-wing singer https://headlineusa.com/tag/beyonce
.
But when faced with https://headlineusa.com/tag/cancel-culture
pressure, it doubled down on the decision, thereby plunging headfirst into the culture war on the winning side.
That may give beer execs optimism that Sweeney could be the Great White Hope destined to rescue their brand—once celebrated for its https://admeter.usatoday.com/story/sports/ad-meter/2024/01/25/highest-rated-bud-light-super-bowl-commercials-in-ad-meter-history/77667835007/
—and wipe away any lingering negativity among consumers.
“[I]f Bud Light teams up with Sydney Sweeney, all the ill will from the Dylan Mulvaney fiasco will disappear faster than a https://www.foxnews.com/media/public-shame-having-moment-again-coldplay-kiss-cam-scandal-explains-why
,” Failla wrote.
“I say that because as a gorgeous and fun loving girl who is not ashamed of her femininity, she’s everything that made Bud Light Commercials successful before the Mad Men in the advertising department were replaced with Mad THEM,” he added.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 08/18/2025 - 10:00
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bud-light-considers-tapping-sydney-sweeney-rehab-tarnished-image
Trump Says Xi Assured Him China Will Not Invade Taiwan During His Presidency
Trump Says Xi Assured Him China Will Not Invade Taiwan During His Presidency
President Donald Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised him that China will refrain from invading Taiwan for the next four years.
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Trump made the remarks during a nearly 30-minute-long interview with Fox News’ Brett Baier which was filmed on Air Force One and aired while the president was in Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I will never do it as long as you’re president; President Xi told me that, and I said, well, I appreciate that,” Trump said.
The guarantee does not extend to future administrations, the president noted.
“But he also said, but I am very patient, and China is very patient,” Trump said. “Say, well, that’s up to you, but it better not happen now.”
It remains unclear when Xi made the remarks.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment before publication.
Taiwan, a self-governing democratic island territory, is viewed by Beijing as a breakaway province. Its freedom remains a volatile point of contention in U.S.-China relations.
The United States guarantees defensive arms to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Xi has vowed to achieve “reunification” with the island by any means necessary, and he’s ramped up military exercises in the waters around the island.
Optimism that the president’s foreign policy agenda will deter China’s aggression is a recurring theme in the administration’s first 200 days.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC host Andrew Ross Sorkin in March that China will stay out of Taiwan.
“I follow President Trump’s lead, and he is confident that President Xi will not make that move during his presidency,” Bessent said.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/article/4202494/remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-pete-hegseth-at-the-2025-shangri-la-dialogue-in/
at the Shangri-La Dialogue—an annual summit held in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies—in May that China is signaling a desire to be capable of attacking the island nation by 2027, with a buildup in nuclear weapons and military readiness.
“Every day you see it. China’s military harasses Taiwan,” Hegseth said.
“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.”
He expressed confidence that the communist regime will wait until the current administration leaves office, but warned of the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to world peace.
“Again, to be clear: any attempt by communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world,” Hegseth said. “There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real.”
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 08/16/2025 - 15:10
Hell Freezes: Hillary Says Trump Has Been "Great" And Would Nominate Him For Peace Prize
Hell Freezes: Hillary Says Trump Has Been "Great" And Would Nominate Him For Peace Prize
Hillary Clinton has praised President Trump. Yes you read that right, she said something nice about him.
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What’s she up to?
Hillary declared on the ‘Raging Moderates’ podcast that she is pleased with the way Trump has dealt with NATO in recent months.
Hillary Clinton praises Trump: “I actually was encouraged by the events of the last several months. The NATO commitment by individual member states to increase defense spending is very welcome and the willingness of European countries to support Ukraine.” https://t.co/mYCbAHPuE2
— TheBlaze (@theblaze) https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1956446229061308778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
“I actually was encouraged by the events of the last several months. First of all, the NATO commitment by individual member states to increase their defense spending is very welcome. It’s something that prior administrations have certainly sought,” Clinton said.
Trump has pressured the other member states to boost spending from just 2 percent of their GDP to 5 percent, and made a deal for NATO to foot the bill for US weapons going to Ukraine.
“I think it’s great that we are seeing these commitments that now have to be followed through on,” Hillary stated.
‘Great’ is an interesting choice of word.
She added that “The willingness of European countries to support Ukraine, and by doing so by American weapons in order to provide them to the Ukrainians,”
Of course, she wants more weapons for Ukraine, and Trump had to do that deal.
Under the agreement, European NATO members—Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the UK, and Canada—commit to purchasing billions of dollars worth of American military equipment, including Patriot air defense systems, missiles, artillery, and ammunition.
These allies then either send the newly acquired U.S. weapons directly to Ukraine or donate their existing stockpiles to Kyiv while replenishing their own inventories with U.S. replacements.
This setup marks a shift from direct U.S. aid packages, which Trump has heavily criticized as overly burdensome on American taxpayers.
“I think all of that is a very good signal that there is beginning to be a better understanding, both by the president and the people around him, as well as by the leaders of our European allies, that there can be common ground amongst us,” Clinton further suggested.
“And the kind of dismissiveness that we saw in the first Trump administration has been replaced by a much more obvious working relationship to the good of European security, transatlantic security, and hopefully Ukrainian security. So I’m actually encouraged,” she added.
Elsewhere during the podcast, Hillary commented on Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin scheduled for today, noting “Honestly, if he could bring about the end to this terrible war, if he could end it without putting Ukraine in a position where it had to concede its territory to the aggressor, could really stand up to Putin — something we haven’t seen, but maybe this is the opportunity — if President Trump were the architect of that, I’d nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize.”
“Because my goal here is to not allow capitulation to Putin,” Clinton added.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet today in Alaska and even Hillary Clinton sees a path toward a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump (but it’s going to take a lot).
Here’s how: https://t.co/SPuj87qz48
— Jessica Tarlov (@JessicaTarlov) https://twitter.com/JessicaTarlov/status/1956340656550367371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Trump responded to Clinton’s comments in his inimitable style.
🔥Bige news: Hillary Clinton said "i will nominate you for the Nobel Peace Prize if you get a deal with Russia without capitulating to Putin…
🎙️President Trump: PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Well, that was very nice – I may have to start liking her again."😁 https://t.co/oMvXXe34HR
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1956462161942761853?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
As we highlighted earlier, Trump has announced that his meeting with Vladmir Putin on Friday was “very successful” and that a full peace deal, not merely a ceasefire, is in the works.
Trump cautioned that this is highly dependent on Ukrainian President Zelensky playing ball, but that he is ready to act as mediator between Zelensky and Putin.
Can Trump pull off what would be an historic outcome?
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via https://pauljosephwatson.locals.com/support
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Sat, 08/16/2025 - 14:00
Humanoid Robot Learns How To Fold Laundry
Humanoid Robot Learns How To Fold Laundry
We've expanded our coverage of humanoid robots and robot dogs for very good reason: "iPhone moment" for these AI-powered machines is just a few years away. These bots are expected to enter homes by the end of the decade, if not the early 2030s. We even got our hands on a Chinese Unitree robodog to test its capabilities, and yes, there's even a Picatinny rail for a flamethrower attachment.
Robot companies, such as Figure AI, have been training humanoid robots for factory applications, as well as the home...
"Today we unveiled the first humanoid robot that can fold laundry autonomously," Figure AI wrote on X earlier today.
Today we unveiled the first humanoid robot that can fold laundry autonomously
Same exact Helix architecture, only new data https://t.co/0iEToKfETD
— Figure (@Figure_robot) https://twitter.com/Figure_robot/status/1955290971660251220?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
On its https://www.figure.ai/news/helix-learns-to-fold-laundry
, Figure AI, the startup founded by Brett Adcock, who also launched drone maker Archer Aviation, boasts that its robots have now mastered the task of folding laundry.
Here's more:
Folding laundry may seem mundane to a person, but it is one of the most challenging dexterous manipulation tasks for a humanoid robot.
Why is this important? Well, as Figure AI explains:
The same general-purpose architecture, and the same physical platform, can seamlessly transition from industrial logistics to household chores. As we scale real-world data collection, we expect Helix's dexterity, speed, and generalization to keep improving across an even broader range of tasks.
That's right, these robots are being trained to enter the home and complete basic tasks, like folding laundry, putting groceries away, and even cooking.
Mark Zuckerberg's Meta https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/meta-plans-new-ai-humanoid-robot-household-chores-headline-fuels-stock-rally-further
earlier this year that it is entering the AI-powered humanoid robot race, aiming to design and develop a bot for "household chores."
The next frontier for big tech is placing a humanoid robot in every home - likely a 2030s story.
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Latest in the world of robots, Goldman analyst Jacqueline attended the 2025 World Robot Conference (WRC) in Beijing, China, last week, and spoke with top humanoid robot companies to gauge the state of the industry. https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/goldman-chats-humanoid-robot-makers-we-tested-unitrees-robodog
.
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We tested the Unitree Go2 Quadruped Robot. We'll have more pictures and even footage as we progress with the test.
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Our coverage focuses on a 'Skynet-like system' materializing in the years ahead:
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/goldmans-investing-guide-skynet
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theres-iphone-moment-happening-humanoids
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/iphone-moment-nears-humanoid-robots
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/china-reveals-ever-scarier-robot-called-stellar-hunter
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/vacuuming-mopping-mowing-household-robots-are-coming
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/new-fear-unlocked
. . .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/13/2025 - 05:45
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/humanoid-robot-learns-how-fold-laundry
Intel CEO Heads To White House Following Trump's Resignation Demand
Intel CEO Heads To White House Following Trump's Resignation Demand
Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan is headed to the White House today, just days after President Trump publicly demanded his resignation over alleged ties to China. Sources close to https://www.wsj.com/tech/intel-ceo-singled-out-by-trump-to-visit-white-house-on-monday-10e482af?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjUBMcEetdO3nrI6T7S3gMqS7yefYN7Gu_C6lyjKpApBmwA09as04lrkoQbUqg%3D&gaa_ts=6899d936&gaa_sig=TkOiEP4CvDF-OkOo6EqJSK_SrN2SSfWR3fSP5OHyD3AvfMlwT5lBC_aNWBOSZLcbPxRRUrPesGnZEChhSzMNfw%3D%3D
say Tan will discuss his personal and professional background with the president, emphasize his allegiance to America, and advocate for closer government and Intel cooperation.
Tan is a Malaysian-born/American citizen and has worked in the tech industry for years. He recently took over as CEO of the struggling chip company to revive it and position it for a turnaround.
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But his tenure has already seen turmoil and political scrutiny.
Concerns stem from Cadence Design Systems, where Tan was CEO until 2021. Last month, Cadence agreed to pay $140 million to settle DOJ charges for selling chip-design tools to a Chinese military university.
Optics so far are unfavorable for Tan, especially against the backdrop of the "America First" movement.
Here's more from the sources about Tan's upcoming meeting with Trump:
Tan is expected to have a wide-ranging conversation with Trump, with the intent of explaining his personal and professional background, the people said. He could also propose ways that the government and Intel could work together, they said.
Tan hopes to win Trump's approval by showing his commitment to the country and pledging the importance of keeping Intel's manufacturing capabilities as a national security issue, one of the people said.
The controversy surrounding Tan began last Thursday after President Trump read U.S. Republican Senator Tom Cotton's letter sent one day earlier to Intel's Board about the CEO's ties to Chinese firms.
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This led to Trump firing off a Truth Social post: "The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately."
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After today's meeting, it's likely only a matter of time before the White House announces "https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-have-golden-share-nippon-steel-partnership-us-steel-sen-mccormick
in Intel - just as it did in the U.S. Steel-Nippon deal.
High teens appears to be the floor.
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. . .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 08/11/2025 - 08:40
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/intel-ceo-heads-white-house-following-trumps-resignation-demand
Is Bitcoin Too Deep In The Fabric Of The U.S. Financial System?
Is Bitcoin Too Deep In The Fabric Of The U.S. Financial System?
Submitted by https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-too-deep-in-the-fabric
Big news today: the Trump administration has formally approved a framework allowing Bitcoin to be offered as an investment option in select 401(k) retirement plans. This move, supported by recent regulatory shifts and increasing institutional pressure, opens the door for millions of Americans to allocate a portion of their retirement savings directly into BTC.
While adoption will likely start conservatively — limited to plans with modern custodial infrastructure and strict compliance standards — the psychological and financial implications are enormous. Bitcoin is no longer just a fringe asset or a speculative hedge; it’s now entering the most conservative, mainstream corner of personal finance: retirement accounts.
What this marks, more than anything, is the deepening entanglement of Bitcoin within the broader U.S. economic machine. Between ETFs, corporate treasuries, public pension exposure, and now retirement plans, Bitcoin is increasingly woven into the fabric of modern finance. Whether you believe in its future or not, the truth is that unwinding Bitcoin from the financial system is no longer a simple matter.
Like the internet in the late 1990s, Bitcoin has crossed a threshold — it’s no longer an outsider trying to break in; it’s inside the walls.
That can be a great thing — if this is, in fact, the early stages of a digital monetary revolution. Bitcoin’s fixed supply, decentralized nature, and programmable infrastructure could serve as a resilient foundation for a more transparent, open, and efficient financial system. For a generation of savers and workers increasingly skeptical of fiat inflation and disillusioned with traditional finance, allocating a portion of their 401(k) into Bitcoin could be both a philosophical and economic bet on a more digital future. It could also act as a hedge — not just against inflation, but against systemic monetary mismanagement.
But there’s another, darker possibility: that we are threading Bitcoin so deeply into our financial infrastructure that if the protocol ever fails — whether due to technical, regulatory, or security collapse — it could pull down enormous portions of capital with it.
If Bitcoin ever implodes after reaching true institutional scale, it could spark a global liquidity crisis, shake faith in U.S. financial judgment, and potentially accelerate the erosion of American economic dominance. In other words, if you thread a volatile protocol too tightly into the most systemically important investment vehicles — like 401(k)s — and it fails, the damage might not be containable.
To help you think clearly about where this is heading, I’ve included two takes that I think represent the best of the Bitcoin bull thesis, from someone who believes Bitcoin could 10x or more— and the best of the Bitcoin bear thesis, from an extremely well written article that predicts — with technical specifications — that Bitcoin will go to $0.
The first is a bull case from my friend and macro investor James Lavish, who sees Bitcoin as the only rational hedge against inevitable fiat debasement. The second is a bear case — arguably one of the most under-discussed risks in the space — that quantum computing could render Bitcoin’s cryptography obsolete and reduce the entire network to digital dust. Both are well-informed, well-reasoned perspectives. And you deserve to understand both.
I'm not telling you which side to take — because honestly, I'm still wrestling with it myself. But make no mistake: we’re undergoing a paradigm shift in finance that rivals the creation of the internet or the removal of the gold standard.
If Bitcoin scales into…say…a $20 trillion asset — as some bulls predict it will (gold’s current market cap) — it could either be the final step toward financial decentralization or the biggest systemic risk in modern economic history. Either way, you need to understand the stakes. Read both sides.
James Lavish https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-too-deep-in-the-fabric
a compelling bull case for Bitcoin, rooted in a deep understanding of macroeconomic imbalances and the structural flaws of modern fiat systems. At the core of his thesis is the idea that we are locked into an inescapable debt spiral — a condition where developed nations, particularly the U.S., must continuously expand credit and debase their currency just to meet existing obligations. This includes massive entitlement programs, ballooning interest payments, and escalating defense spending. In such an environment, where monetary policy is used not as a tool of stability but as a political necessity, Lavish argues that a hard, incorruptible asset like Bitcoin becomes not just attractive, but essential.
What distinguishes Lavish's perspective is how he arrived at Bitcoin after years in traditional finance, initially skeptical like many of his Wall Street peers. He was introduced to Bitcoin through personal and intellectual curiosity, accelerated by the pandemic-era money printing, and deepened by his own research. Eventually, he came to view Bitcoin as "singular" among digital assets — a mathematically governed, decentralized monetary network immune to policy manipulation and impervious to centralized control. Lavish likens it to "digital gold," but better: finite in supply, globally accessible, and secured by a distributed energy-based consensus mechanism that makes it practically unchangeable and nation-state resistant.
🔥 50% OFF FOR LIFE: Using this coupon entitles you to 50% off an annual subscription to Fringe Finance for life: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=d8097c43
For Lavish, Bitcoin's real power lies in its ability to act as a hedge against the unavoidable erosion of purchasing power caused by fiat currency debasement. He explains how the monetary system, when colliding with deflationary forces from technological innovation, is forced to expand even faster just to maintain the illusion of stability. Bitcoin, in contrast, offers a store of value that doesn’t rely on perpetual growth or centralized trust — just math and consensus. He argues that as more people understand this — not just investors, but institutions and governments — Bitcoin’s market share will grow, gradually siphoning capital away from weaker stores of value like gold, real estate, and eventually even sovereign debt.
Lavish is also bullish on the growing legitimacy of Bitcoin in the eyes of institutional finance. He points to recent regulatory shifts, like the changes in GAAP accounting and the rollback of punitive SEC rules, as well as increasing stablecoin demand — all of which help embed Bitcoin deeper into the financial system. His fund, which operates on a Bitcoin standard, reflects his belief in Bitcoin’s long-term outperformance relative to other risk assets. He’s not just passively holding; he's actively deploying capital into both Bitcoin and Bitcoin-adjacent companies that are building real revenue-generating businesses around the ecosystem.
Ultimately, Lavish sees Bitcoin as a rational response to a broken system. It’s not just about outsized returns or hype cycles — it’s about opting out of a fiat regime that’s lost credibility and anchoring to a monetary asset that operates independently of political whim. For Lavish, Bitcoin isn't merely an investment — it’s a lifeboat. You can listen to his full bull case included in this article https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-too-deep-in-the-fabric
.
And on the bearish side of things — if you care about Bitcoin—whether you're a casual HODLer, a developer, or a diehard maxi—https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-too-deep-in-the-fabric
you need to read. It’s not alarmist, it’s not anti-Bitcoin; it’s a technically grounded, eye-opening breakdown of how quantum computing could upend the very cryptographic foundations that Bitcoin is built on.
The implications aren’t some distant sci-fi threat—they're real, they’re accelerating, and most shockingly, they’re rarely discussed in mainstream crypto circles. This piece lays it all out with clarity, urgency, and a surprising dose of wit. Ignore it at your own risk. The key points go something like this.
Bitcoin’s core security is built on cryptographic assumptions that may not hold in the near future. At the heart of Bitcoin lies SHA-256 hashing and ECDSA digital signatures—techniques once thought unbreakable. These methods rely on the idea that you can’t reverse-engineer a hash or derive a private key from a public one. But quantum computing changes the game.
Grover’s Algorithm could dramatically reduce the effort needed to attack the SHA-256 hash function, while Shor’s Algorithm can outright crack ECDSA, threatening Bitcoin wallets that have already exposed public keys—especially those used in past transactions.
The danger isn’t hypothetical—it’s already baked into Bitcoin’s history. Over 89% of Bitcoin has public keys visible on-chain, meaning a future quantum computer could eventually seize control of those funds. Even legendary wallets like Satoshi’s are vulnerable.
If a quantum actor ever accesses these coins—whether to steal them, prove a point, or just test a capability—it could spark panic. The mere perception that Bitcoin's “immovable” foundation is compromised may shatter trust and trigger a catastrophic sell-off before any patch or fork can be coordinated.
And fixing it isn’t simple—if it’s even possible. Bitcoin’s strength is its immutability, but that same rigidity could be its downfall. Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography would require mass coordination across exchanges, wallets, miners, and users—many of whom are inactive or unreachable.
It's not a simple update; it’s a complete overhaul. And unlike centralized platforms, Bitcoin can’t be “paused” or quickly patched. So if a quantum breakthrough arrives before a full migration is done, Bitcoin’s codebase could be broken, and with it, the very trust that gives it value. Read the full bear case here:
Bitcoin bulls respond to the quantum computing bear case by arguing that while the threat is real in theory, it remains distant in practice — likely a decade or more away due to the immense technical challenge of building a sufficiently powerful and error-corrected quantum computer. In the meantime, they emphasize that the Bitcoin developer community is already exploring and drafting proposals for post-quantum cryptographic upgrades, such as integrating quantum-resistant signature schemes like SPHINCS+ or XMSS.
Bulls also point out that Bitcoin’s open-source, decentralized nature gives it a unique advantage: if a credible quantum threat emerges, the network can coordinate a protocol upgrade through soft or hard forks, much like it has adapted in the past. Ultimately, they see the quantum threat not as a death sentence, but as a solvable engineering problem — one Bitcoin will have ample time and incentive to address.
Either way, with today’s news about Bitcoin getting even deeper into the U.S. economic system, it seems like a great time for a refresher on the best, and worst case scenarios.
I’d love to hear your thoughts in https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/is-bitcoin-too-deep-in-the-fabric
.
QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer https://quoththeraven.substack.com/about
with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.
The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 08/08/2025 - 11:25
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-too-deep-fabric-us-financial-system
Insiders Sold The July Rally
Insiders Sold The July Rally
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/insiders-sell-the-july-rally/
While the market steadily rose throughout June and July, corporate insiders were growing less enthusiastic about their stocks.
Less than a third of S&P 500 companies saw insiders purchase stock in their own company in July.
That is the lowest figure since 2018. Moreover, the ratio of buys to sells for insiders fell to almost half of its longer-term average and now sits at its second-lowest reading in four years.
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Source: Bloomberg
Per Bloomberg’s article “https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-04/corporate-insiders-were-dumping-stocks-into-july-s-record-rally
“:
“Corporate executives are behaving a lot like institutional investors right now: cautious, conservative, and valuation-sensitive,” said Dave Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Investments.
“The people that know the most about companies are telling you that much of the good news is discounted,”
The logic in following the actions of corporate insiders is that they have more knowledge about their companies than other investors.
Thus, their cumulative actions indicate their valuation view is different from that of the optimistic market.
While the recent bout of insider selling and lack of buying is a warning, it’s not a good timing tool.
Bottom line: This data, along with high valuations, a weakening economy, and overbought technicals, provides a good reason for caution.
However, we should not overreact.
Insiders do have more knowledge, but their collective actions have proven at times to be poor indicators of the future.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Fri, 08/08/2025 - 08:05
"Chat Control" - EU Proposal To Scan All Private Messages Gains Momentum
"Chat Control" - EU Proposal To Scan All Private Messages Gains Momentum
https://cointelegraph.com/news/eu-chat-control-plan-gains-support-threatens-encryption
A controversial European Union proposal dubbed “Chat Control” is regaining momentum, with 19 out of 27 EU member states reportedly backing the measure.
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The plan would mandate that messaging platforms, including WhatsApp, Signal and Telegram, must scan every message, photo and video sent by users starting in October, even if end-to-end encryption is in place, popular French tech blogger Korben https://korben.info/chat-control-europe-scan-messages.html
on Monday.
Denmark https://cointelegraph.com/news/whatsapp-signal-eu-chat-control-bill
, the first day of its EU Council presidency. France, once opposed, is now in favor, Korben said, citing Patrick Breyer, a former member of the European Parliament for Germany and the European Pirate Party.
Belgium, Hungary, Sweden, Italy and Spain are also in favor, while Germany remains undecided. However, if Berlin joins the majority, a qualified council vote could push the plan through by mid-October, Korben said.
A qualified majority in the EU Council is achieved when two conditions are met. First, at least 55 percent of member states, meaning 15 out of 27, must vote in favor. Second, those countries must represent at least 65% of the EU’s total population.
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EU Chat Control bill finds support. Source: https://x.com/wilderko/status/1952358174717006237
Pre-encryption scanning on devices
Instead of weakening encryption, the plan seeks to implement client-side scanning, meaning software embedded in users’ devices that inspects content before it is encrypted.
“A bit like if the Post Office came to read all your letters in your living room before you put them in the envelope,” Korben said.
He added that the real target isn’t criminals, who use encrypted or decentralized channels, but ordinary users whose private conversations would now be open to algorithmic scrutiny.
The proposal cites the prevention of child sexual abuse material (CSAM) as its justification.
However, it would result in “mass surveillance by means of fully automated real-time surveillance of messaging and chats and the end of privacy of digital correspondence,” Breyer https://www.patrick-breyer.de/en/posts/chat-control/#the-end-of-the-privacy-of-digital-correspondence
.
Beyond scanning, the package includes mandatory age verification, effectively removing anonymity from messaging platforms. Digital freedom groups are asking citizens to contact their MEPs, sign petitions and push back before the law becomes irreversible.
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An infographic explaining the proposed EU Chat Control bill. Source: Patrick Breyer
France faces societal collapse over censorship
Last month, Telegram founder Pavel Durov warned that https://cointelegraph.com/news/telegram-durov-warns-france-societal-collapse
after being accused of failing to moderate his app to reduce criminality.
He also alleged that French intelligence officials approached him earlier this year with requests to https://cointelegraph.com/news/pavel-durov-rejects-eu-pressure-censor-romanian-election
ahead of the May 2025 Romanian election, a request he says he refused.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:20
Trump Demands Intel CEO "Must Resign" Over Alleged China Ties Cited In Senator Cotton's Letter
Trump Demands Intel CEO "Must Resign" Over Alleged China Ties Cited In Senator Cotton's Letter
President Trump must have read U.S. Republican Senator Tom Cotton's letter, sent to Intel's Board on Wednesday, about the chipmaker's new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan's ties to Chinese firms, and a recent criminal case involving his former company, Cadence Design. That's because Trump just fired off a shocking new Truth Social post moments ago.
"The CEO of INTEL is highly CONFLICTED and must resign, immediately," Trump wrote on his social media platform.
?itok=W3lPGUtv
The president continued, "There is no other solution to this problem. Thank you for your attention to this problem!"
?itok=hjuHaAE_
In a letter addressed to Intel Chairman Frank Yeary, Cotton raised the question whether Intel's Board knew about subpoenas issued to Cadence during Tan's tenure, and whether Tan has fully disclosed or divested from Chinese chip firms linked to the Chinese military or Communist Party.
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Writing to "express concern about the security and integrity of Intel's operations and its potential impact on U.S. national security", Cotton said in the letter.
Cotton noted that Tan recently pleaded guilty to illegally transferring sensitive chip design technology to a Chinese military university and semiconductor firm while working at Cadence.
Cotton also criticized Intel's decision to hire Tan despite these associations, especially given the company's nearly $8 billion award under the CHIPS Act and its role in the Secure Enclave program, which requires strict compliance with national security protocols.
Intel shares are down nearly 4% in premarket trading in New York.
Here's the full letter from the GOP Senator:
Mr. Frank D. Yeary
Chairman of the Board of Directors
Intel Corporation
2200 Mission College Blvd
Santa Clara, CA 95054
Dear Mr. Yeary:
I write to express concern about the security and integrity of Intel's operations and its potential impact on U.S. national security. In March 2025, Intel appointed Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. Mr. Tan reportedly controls dozens of Chinese companies and has a stake in hundreds of Chinese advanced-manufacturing and chip firms. At least eight of these companies reportedly have ties to the Chinese People's Liberation Army.
Mr. Tan was most recently the CEO of Cadence Design Systems, a company that makes electronic design automation (EDA) technology, which is a key enabler of advanced chip design. Last week, Cadence pleaded guilty to illegally selling its products to a Chinese military university and transferring its technology to an associated Chinese semiconductor company without obtaining licenses. These illegal activities occurred under Mr. Tan's tenure.
Intel was awarded nearly $8 billion from the CHIPS and Science Act, the largest grant to a single company. Intel is required to be a responsible steward of American taxpayer dollars and to comply with applicable security regulations. Mr. Tan's associations raise questions about Intel's ability to fulfill these obligations. In the interest of transparency and national security, I respectfully request a response to the following questions by August 15, 2025.
Was the Board aware of Cadence's subpoenas before hiring Mr. Tan as CEO? If so, what measures were taken to address concerns about Cadence's activities under Mr. Tan?
Did the Board require Mr. Tan to divest from his positions in semiconductor firms linked to the Chinese Communist Party or the People's Liberation Army and any other concerning entities in China that could pose a conflict of interest for Intel's CEO?
Given Intel's contract under the Secure Enclave program, has Mr. Tan disclosed any remaining investments, professional roles, or other ties to Chinese companies to the U.S. government?
Thank you for your attention to this matter. I look forward to your response.
Sincerely,
Tom Cotton
United States Senator
It seems like the 'Red Scare' has begun.
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Thu, 08/07/2025 - 08:00
Files Of A Would-Be Assassin - Thomas Crooks' Internet Search History Revealed
Files Of A Would-Be Assassin - Thomas Crooks' Internet Search History Revealed
,
Headline USA has obtained a partial internet search history of alleged would-be Trump assassinhttps://headlineusa.com/tag/Thomas-crooks
Read it here for the first time.
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The search history comes from a trove of data from the Community College of Allegheny County (CCAC), where Crooks attended from 2022 to 2024—graduating in the spring of last year with an associate degree in engineering science. The search history is only for the times Crooks was using CCAC wifi, which was about three days per week when school was in session. The vast majority of his internet footprint, including the countless hours he spent online at his house, is still a mystery.
CBS News and The New York Times also obtained the CCAC search history, and both outlets https://www.cbsnews.com/lifeofthomascrooks/
about it last month. However, they didn’t publish the raw data.
When this author saw the CBS article, he asked the CCAC for the same search history information. In response, a CCAC official provided four files of “Graylog” data, which only showed jumbled-up code. The CCAC official said that CBS and New York Times both “reversed engineered” the Graylog code to make it readable.
Eventually, this reporter was able to find a computer whiz to do the same. Apparently, deciphering the data was simple—just a matter of renaming the files and running the script again.
While CBS reported many of the pertinent facts about Crooks’s search history, the raw data does reveal previously unreported information.
For instance, Crooks visited mainstream news sites such as The Hill, Aljazeera, CNBS, The Wall Street Journal and CNN, along with more niche sites such as compositesworld.com and foodsafetynews.com. He also visited the State Department’s website, www.state.gov, once on Oct. 10 at 12:50 p.m.—a visit that wasn’t reported by CBS or the Times. That visit occurred right after Crooks was browsing winteriscoming.net, which is a Game of Thrones fan site.
Well, well well, Thomas. What do we have here? https://t.co/nxIsMjxHiF
— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) https://twitter.com/JD_Cashless/status/1952822671408021549?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Even at the college campus, Crooks seemed most interested in gaming sites. He visited PlaySimple, Discord, and Xbox Game Pass frequently. Meanwhile, when he wasn’t YouTube, his social media activity included Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit.
Crooks was apparently a sports fan, too, visiting sites such as ESPN and a Pittsburgh Steelers fan site. One seemingly bizarre site is the South African-based sports betting service appclap.org. Crooks visited that site on Jan. 24, 2024, which was one of his busiest days on the CCAC network. As CBS News noted, Crooks conducted at least 1,364 searches that day. After that, he consistently used a VPN and other privacy tools that hid his footprint.
“After Jan. 24, 2024, there are 25 days with activity, but nearly all of them have just a few requests, all of them to Mullvad. Whatever he was viewing on those days is not in the logs,” CBS noted last month, also reporting on the use of his encrypted email service: Mailfence.com.
While Headline USA has yet to uncover any new trends that could shed light on Crooks’s mindset and actions leading up to his death, this publication is releasing the data in full so readers can conduct their own research. Note the files are numbered 1, 2, 3 and 5. A CCAC official said File 4 didn’t have any data, while File 6 only reflected his use of a VPN.
https://headlineusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/tc_graylog_sites_visited01.txt
https://headlineusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/tc_graylog_600_649_results02.txt
https://headlineusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/tc_graylog_650_699_results03.txt
https://headlineusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/tc_graylog_700_769_results05.txt
Headline USA is also the outlet that published Crooks’s CCAC emails—which can be downloaded https://www.scribd.com/document/869103175/Crooks-Sent-Emails
his toxicology and autopsy reports, and the 911 call his father made to police on the day of the Trump shooting.
Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at https://x.com/jd_cashless
.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 - 14:45
DOGE Worker "Big Balls" Bloodied After DC Attack; Trump, Musk Call To Federalize DC
DOGE Worker "Big Balls" Bloodied After DC Attack; Trump, Musk Call To Federalize DC
President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have called for the federalization of crime-ridden Washington, D.C., following the brutal attack on 19-year-old Edward Coristine, a former staffer at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) whose LinkedIn handle earned him the nickname 'Big Balls'.
"I have to say that somebody from DOGE was very badly hurt. A young man who was beaten up by a bunch of thugs in D.C., and either they're gonna straighten their act out in the terms of government and in terms of protection, or we're gonna have to federalize and run it the way it's supposed to be run," President Trump told reporters Tuesday.
The president also posted a lengthy message on Truth Social about the deteriorating crime situation in the nation's capital. He said the city is "totally out of control," adding that kids as young as 14, 15, and 16 are randomly attacking, mugging, maiming, and shooting innocent citizens.
President Trump posted an image of 'Big Balls' sitting on the ground, bloodied after the mob attack. He then declared, "If this continues, I am going to exert my powers and FEDERALIZE this city."
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Former DOGE employee Marko Elez claimed on X that he snapped the photo of Big Balls after the assault.
My friend Big Balls (https://twitter.com/as400495?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
— Marko Elez (@marko_elez) https://twitter.com/marko_elez/status/1952865310132060353?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Musk also chimed in: "It is time to federalize DC."
A few days ago, a gang of about a dozen young men tried to assault a woman in her car at night in DC.
A https://twitter.com/DOGE?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
team member saw what was happening, ran to defend her and was severely beaten to the point of concussion, but he saved her.
It is time to federalize DC. https://t.co/RPHKj7J3ti
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1952836498971344926?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
For years, we've informed readers that parts of the nation's capital, and even into Baltimore City, are crime-ridden areas plagued by violent child gangsters. This comes as no surprise, given that far-left Democrats entirely control these metro areas. These far-left leaders are not competent managers, but DEI activists who have done more harm to society than good...
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dc-enforces-youth-curfew-juvenile-crime-major-problem
It's time to restore safety in America's cities, starting with the nation's capital. For decades, Democrats have masqueraded as competent stewards of these urban areas, but that illusion has collapsed. Their policies have massively failed, and the consequences are undeniable.
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The time has come for a serious course correction and to restore these crime-ridden cities that rob the youth of a future. Democrats have failed.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 - 08:40
Cash Sent Home By Mexicans Craters 16.2% In June As More Immigrants Leave US Workforce
Cash Sent Home By Mexicans Craters 16.2% In June As More Immigrants Leave US Workforce
The amount of cash being sent home by Mexicans living in the United States cratered in the first half of 2025 - with June marking the third consecutive monthly increase.
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According to https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/remesas/%7B1A95D882-1CCD-05DC-5FFD-06D272079C34%7D.pdf
, Mexico's national bank, remittances from the United States have fallen by nearly 6% since January, and 16.2% during the month of June - when only $5.2 billion was sent back to Mexico, vs $6.207 billion in the same month in 2024.
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And while the bank reports that the average amount being sent back is higher than in 2024 at $409, the number of people sending money back has dropped by 14%.
Executives at Western Union recently admitted on an earnings call that the outflow of hot money from the United States has slowed amid the crackdown on illegal aliens.
CFO Matt Cagwin told Wall Street analysts that they "continued to see weakness in North America, driven by immigration policy, which led to a slowdown in the independent channel."
CEO Devin McGranahan explained that the "slowdown" is in both retail and digital businesses between the United States and Mexico.
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Over the past year, nearly $63 billion was sent back to Mexico by people living north of the border - a significant drop from the peak years of 2023 and 2024.
Illegals sent $56 billion dollars back to their home countries just in the year 2024
$56 BILLION was sent out of America while they received free housing, healthcare, food etc
This has been the scam of illegals for decades. Collect our benefits while building a life in Mexico https://t.co/DWGgd84ROW
— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/1937174249061618148?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"Remittances plummeted in June due to low job creation for Mexicans in the United States and the fear of migrants to go out due to the possibility of being deported," Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on X on Friday, adding that "remittances could continue to decline for the rest of the year, affecting consumption in Mexico."
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) have declined four months in a row...
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Analysts, meanwhile, think remittances could continue to fall throughout the second half of the year.
Analysts from the banks Banorte, BBVA, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan also believe there is a risk that remittances will continue to decline in the second half of 2025, according to the newspaper El Economista.
Such an eventuality would affect millions of Mexican families that depend on remittances to meet their basic needs. It would also affect the Mexican economy, reducing consumption and thus contributing to what is widely forecast to be a lower level of https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/mexico-economy-grew-q2/
. -MexicoNewsDaily
The vast majority of remittances to Mexico are sent from the United States - which will impose a 1% tax on cash sent starting Jan. 1, 2026 - which has prompted the Mexican government to promote a government bank card that can avoid US-based Mexicans to avoid the tax.
Immigrants are leaving US workforce in mass.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down over -2 million from a year ago.
Biggest decline by far in 30+ years - a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis. https://t.co/o49TeyLvOC
— Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) https://twitter.com/EricFinnigan/status/1952133140610204102?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
99% of money transfers were done electronically, while the rest were done via cash or money transfers according to Banxico, as reported by https://www.borderreport.com/news/trade/mexicans-in-us-sending-less-money-home-so-far-this-year/
.
According to Jesús Cervantes González, director of economic statistics at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, "there are indicators that show a weakening of employment for Mexican immigrant workers in the United States," MexicoNewsDaily https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/remittances-mexico-plummet-16-2-percent-june/
.
"That could be due both to a genuine decrease in demand for such workers and to their irregular presence at their workplaces out of fear of being deported," he said.
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement has been carrying out immigration raids in various US cities this year - including a major operation in Los Angeles in June - with President Trump pledging to carry out the "largest deportation operation in US history."
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Wed, 08/06/2025 - 06:55
Biden Handlers Ready To Unleash Trove Of Embarrassing Kamala Stories In Response To Her Book
Biden Handlers Ready To Unleash Trove Of Embarrassing Kamala Stories In Response To Her Book
Joe Biden’s inner circle are reportedly preparing to spill all the beans on just how awful Kamala Harris was as Vice President should her upcoming book put him in a bad light.
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That’s according to journalist Mark Halperin, who claims Biden loyalists have a store of embarrassing stories they’re holding back but will make public should Harris negatively reference Biden’s cognitive decline.
It’s now common knowledge that Biden’s camp, particularly his wife, despise Harris for going along with the Democratic Party coup against Joe.
Biden allies prepared to unload ‘Palinesque’ stories about Kamala Harris if she discusses his cognitive decline: report https://t.co/wkCzzxmhCW
— New York Post (@nypost) https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1951450125466759257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
In an appearance on The Morning Meeting show, Halperin stated “I will tell you, and this has never been reported, barely at all: if the Biden people decide that Kamala Harris is coming after Joe Biden, wait till you hear the ‘Palinesque’ stories about how much they tried to help her be prepared to be vice president and be in a position to run.”
Halperin further claimed that the details will expose “How much they decided, ‘Not happening. She’s not up to this.’”
“If the Biden people feel threatened, you will hear stories about Kamala Harris as Vice President that will not make her look good,” Halperin urged.
“It’s not like they’re at war currently, but I’m telling you, if Joe Biden feels threatened, if his people feel threatened by her, this is gonna escalate in a big way,” he added.
Halperin further asserted that the Biden inner circle pulled out all the stops “in trying to help her do the job of vice president.”
“They gave her every opportunity. And they did — they found in some instances that she had some issues,” he emphasized.
Yeah, we noticed.
Harris announced the upcoming memoir this week with several bizarre cackling social media posts and appearances reminding the entire world just how much of a bullet we all dodged.
Meanwhile, one of Biden’s top aides Mike Donilon has revealed that he made a whopping $4 million working for him in 2024 alone.
According to https://www.axios.com/2025/07/31/donilon-biden-2024-reelection-testimony-congress
, Donilon was also slated to receive another $4 million if Biden was somehow able to get reelected.
The details came out in closed-door testimony to the House Oversight Committee which is investigating the cover up of Biden’s cognitive decline.
Scoop: Top Biden aide was promised $8 million for 2024 win https://t.co/PiMedrKiFK
— Sean Spicer (@seanspicer) https://twitter.com/seanspicer/status/1951251095243690203?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Is it any wonder they were so keen on hiding him from the media?
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via https://pauljosephwatson.locals.com/support
.
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Mon, 08/04/2025 - 08:20
"Enough Is Enough": Boeing Fighter Jet Workers Begin Strike
"Enough Is Enough": Boeing Fighter Jet Workers Begin Strike
Update (0635ET):
More than 3,200 union members who assemble Boeing's fighter jets across multiple plants in the St. Louis area and Illinois went on strike earlier this morning, after voting on Sunday to reject a modified four-year labor deal with the defense company. This marks the union's first strike since 1996.
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"STRIKE ALERT: 3,200 highly-skilled IAM Union members at Boeing went on strike at midnight because enough is enough," the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 837 (IAM District 837) wrote on X around 0200 ET.
🚨 STRIKE ALERT: 3,200 highly-skilled IAM Union members at Boeing went on strike at midnight because enough is enough.
This is about respect and dignity, not empty promises. https://t.co/2mRlPkmOMm
— IAM Union (@IAM_Union) https://twitter.com/IAM_Union/status/1952244162931155295?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
"We're disappointed our employees in St. Louis rejected an offer that featured 40% average wage growth," Dan Gillian, Boeing vice president and general manager of the St. Louis facilities, told Reuters in a statement.
Important to note: IAM District 837 workers assemble Boeing's F-15 and F/A-18 fighters, the T-7 trainer, and the MQ-25.
In markets, Boeing shares traded flat in premarket trading in New York. We suspect investors will pay more attention if the strike drags on. The last one in 1996 lasted 99 days.
* * *
The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 837, representing 3,200 Boeing defense workers across Missouri and Illinois and affiliated with the AFL–CIO/CLC, has rejected a https://www.zerohedge.com/military/boeings-fighter-jet-plants-risk-strike-if-union-rejects-new-labor-deal
with Boeing. As a result, for the first time since 1996, a strike will begin at midnight, impacting operations at key fighter jet plants.
"IAM District 837 members have spoken loud and clear, they deserve a contract that reflects their skill, dedication, and the critical role they play in our nation's defense," IAM District 837 Directing Business Representative Tom Boelling stated in a https://www.goiam.org/news/iam-district-837-members-in-st-louis-reject-latest-boeing-offer-strike-for-fair-contract/
, adding, "We stand shoulder to shoulder with these working families as they fight for fairness and respect on the job."
The 3,200 machinists were in a week-long federally mandated "cooling-off" period after rejecting Boeing's initial labor contract last Sunday. By Friday, Boeing presented a modified offer that included a 20% pay boost, raising average annual pay from $75,000 to $102,600, along with other perks, including a $5,000 signing bonus.
For some context, the last time IAM District 837 went on strike was in 1996, a labor action that lasted 99 days. There's no telling how long the current stoppage will last, but it will undoubtedly impact operations at the F-15, F/A-18, and cutting-edge missile and defense technologies plants.
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The timing of the strike comes as the world is on fire and deepening into a bipolar state. We asked a very simple question early last week:
One must ask whether foreign adversaries, as part of their hybrid warfare campaign to implode the US from within, have exploited this union in an attempt to strike a critical node in America's defense manufacturing hub.
Indeed, the heads of IAM District 837 were pro-globalist Joe Biden...
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It's not far-fetched to suggest that foreign adversaries could infiltrate unions; it's a well-documented tactic in the hybrid warfare playbook.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden
Mon, 08/04/2025 - 06:35
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/boeing-defense-union-set-strike-first-time-1996