NEW: HUGE day for the Fidelity #Bitcoin ETF compared to the rest of the field, helping to cancel out the $350 million in outflows from GBTC 👀
4/4 And this implies $14M per coin.
Are you ready?
3/4 Bitcoin will absorb the monetary premium of these assets, not all their value. The premium % is shows in the table above and I will explain the details of the methodology in a longer form blog post on
@21st_capital
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At hyperbitcoinization, after Bitcoin has absorbed the monetary premium of the world's various assets, its market cap will be $293T in today's dollars.
1/4 #Bitcoin's Total Addressable Market
What is the total wealth that Bitcoin can potentially attract at hyperbitcoinization? What final price does this imply? A mini-article.
Hal Finney famously predicted Bitcoin's TAM for the first time and calculated the price of $10 million per Bitcoin. But things have changed. Here is an updated analysis.
Hal wrote: "As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. [$100-$300T...] that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
There are different approaches to this, but we chose to compute the total amount of wealth that exists in various assets. At hyperbitcoinization, we expect Bitcoin to absorb the monetary premium of other stores of value that are currently in use.
The main current SOVs are gold, equities, bonds, and real estate. Others, like cars or art, have negligible market caps. We also do not include money supply to avoid double-counting (it should theoretically equal asset value).
The total market cap of all these assets, including Bitcoin, is $637.8T, with RE being by far the largest asset class.
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8/ The ETF complex has, on average, brought in a net of $225M per day. And the outflows have significantly dropped. Net flow is going back to neutral. Once Genesis liquidation is complete, and the price recovers a little, the sidelined capital might very well resume flowing in.
7/ This big picture remains extremely positive, though. We don't expect ETFs to indefinitely bring new money. There will be ups and downs. What has happened so far is extraordinary – $25 B in, $13.8 B out, $11 B net.
6/ For instance, Blackrock, the largest fund, is on a clear downtrend and recoded its worst inflow this week.
5/ The problem wasn't just GBTC outflow, the inflows got weaker too. New buyers are exhausted.
4/ Total flows compared
3/ The week-day effect remains intact: flows get weaker toward Friday.
2/ The week before last was the best-ever. Last week? was the worst-ever
#Bitcoin ETF Flows Weekly Summary
TOTAL -$888M
exGBTC $1,114M
IBIT $828M
FBTC $79M
BITB $67M
EZBC $52M
BRRR $38M
ARKB $33M
HODL $17M
BTCW $0M
BTCO -$2M
GBTC -$2,001M
انجام شد :)
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