Jack, any possibility u got an hour at some point before the end of the year to swing by Blue Collar Bitcoin & talk about open networks winning?

-Dan & Josh

👊

What are you reading right now?

😂

Bitcoiners fight too much.

Chill the fuck out & stack sats.

What a STELLAR rip with the one & only nostr:npub1s9z7pwy96thwt7zvmrlpfnddstezxxphx9rx3m0660sgkwld9eescjnszc !

✅Macro

✅Blackrock ETF

✅Stoicism

✅Legal Hurdles

✅Fitness

🎧https://fountain.fm/episode/sTPglkOvUDMjFzw1chOn

Price predictions on #bitcoin, especially those with timelines attached, are almost always unhelpful.

Us too.

#Bitcoin plays no favorites — it’s the only truly level financial playing field in 21st century.

Get in the game.

#Bitcoin works because it aligns the digital realm with the laws of nature.

Took care of a WW2 veteran in his upper 90s early this morning.

These vets are becoming very scarce, and it’s a true privilege being around them.🫡🇺🇸

Violent move in rates—why hasn't more broken?🤔

Luke Gromen makes a key point in update below: Intervention HAS thwarted deflation—trapeze artists can't get hurt when the net is always there.

BUT...what are long-term risks of the perpetual Fed Put???

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3z-uHA9kJk

The Happiness of YOUR life depends on the quality of YOUR Thoughts

- Marcus Aurelious

“Every upstart project in crypto faces their own impossible paradox as they attempt to catch up to #Bitcoin – the Crypto Catch-22:

1️⃣U can’t catch #BTC  w/o a leadership team & a marketing budget.

2️⃣W/ a leadership team & marketing budget, ur a company masquerading as a decentralized protocol.”

—Jesse Myers

https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/the-crypto-catch-22-why-bitcoin-only

In our view, what nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83a summarizes in this segment below is one of the most important concepts to grasp when assessing the fiscal (& broader macro) environment of the 2020s.

And trust us, water doesn't work well on grease fires.😉

👇👇👇

"During the 1940s, interest rates were not used as a policy tool to fight inflation, because it was fiscal-driven inflation rather than lending-driven inflation. Instead, the primary policy tools focused on ending the war, ceasing the fiscal deficits, and pivoting back towards a period of financial austerity.

During the 1970s, raising interest rates and performing other actions to reduce the high rate of bank lending was a successful inflation-fighting strategy, because it tackled the problem head on. Other non-monetary policies included improving the supply-side, such as resolving or getting around geopolitical oil embargoes. Federal debt as a percentage of GDP was only 30%, so higher rates on the public debt were manageable compared to the reduced rate of loan creation in the private sector that higher rates led to.

During the 2020s, we have a different problem. Most of the inflation was caused by large 1940s-style fiscal deficits, and yet the Federal Reserve has primarily used a 1970s-style playbook of raising interest rates to deal with it, even though that’s primarily a tool to constrain lending. However, raising interest rates when federal debt is over 100% of GDP substantially increases those deficits at an equal or larger pace than it reduces loan creation in the private sector.

An issue here is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what else to do, because their tools don’t really address deficit-driven inflation; their tools are meant to deal with lending-driven inflation. It’s a fiscal matter, and so the best the Federal Reserve can do is try to suppress the private sector to offset some of what’s happening in the public sector, even though that’s not addressing the core problem.

So as the Federal Reserve raises rates, federal interest expense increases, and the federal deficit widens ironically at a time when deficits were the primary cause of inflation in the first place. It risks being akin to trying to put out a kitchen grease fire with water, which makes intuitive sense but doesn’t work as expected.

[....]

As we look years into the future via the following chart from the Congressional Budget Office, the rising federal debts and deficits will cause the fiscal dominance to continue into increase, which means interest rates become a less and less useful inflation-fighting tool over time."

Full newsletter here: https://www.lynalden.com/july-2023-newsletter/

In our view, what nostr:npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83asummarizes in this segment below is one of the most important concepts to grasp when assessing the fiscal (& broader macro) environment of the 2020s.

And trust us, water doesn't work well on grease fires.😉

👇👇👇

"During the 1940s, interest rates were not used as a policy tool to fight inflation, because it was fiscal-driven inflation rather than lending-driven inflation. Instead, the primary policy tools focused on ending the war, ceasing the fiscal deficits, and pivoting back towards a period of financial austerity.

During the 1970s, raising interest rates and performing other actions to reduce the high rate of bank lending was a successful inflation-fighting strategy, because it tackled the problem head on. Other non-monetary policies included improving the supply-side, such as resolving or getting around geopolitical oil embargoes. Federal debt as a percentage of GDP was only 30%, so higher rates on the public debt were manageable compared to the reduced rate of loan creation in the private sector that higher rates led to.

During the 2020s, we have a different problem. Most of the inflation was caused by large 1940s-style fiscal deficits, and yet the Federal Reserve has primarily used a 1970s-style playbook of raising interest rates to deal with it, even though that’s primarily a tool to constrain lending. However, raising interest rates when federal debt is over 100% of GDP substantially increases those deficits at an equal or larger pace than it reduces loan creation in the private sector.

An issue here is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t really know what else to do, because their tools don’t really address deficit-driven inflation; their tools are meant to deal with lending-driven inflation. It’s a fiscal matter, and so the best the Federal Reserve can do is try to suppress the private sector to offset some of what’s happening in the public sector, even though that’s not addressing the core problem.

So as the Federal Reserve raises rates, federal interest expense increases, and the federal deficit widens ironically at a time when deficits were the primary cause of inflation in the first place. It risks being akin to trying to put out a kitchen grease fire with water, which makes intuitive sense but doesn’t work as expected.

[....]

As we look years into the future via the following chart from the Congressional Budget Office, the rising federal debts and deficits will cause the fiscal dominance to continue into increase, which means interest rates become a less and less useful inflation-fighting tool over time."

Full newsletter here: https://www.lynalden.com/july-2023-newsletter/

Orange Pilling can be INCREDIBLY challenging & frustrating. We explore why w/ Austin Herbert in BCB120.

→#Bitcoin inception.

→Why fitness doesn’t have to be difficult.

→Boat Day Drinking.

→Camel Toe Ego.

🎧 https://fountain.fm/episode/B1Q5e9fYgnQgkUpZe3oK

Was at the neighbors' house last night. They asked about #Bitcoin. I tried to keep it brief but talked for 1.5 hours.

It's almost impossible to explain this thing succinctly. One aspect cascades into the next, and the next, and the next....🤷

No bank holidays on #bitcoin

One day you might be so right about #Bitcoin that it’ll scare the shit out of you.