the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov by france is why we need decentralized free speech platform !
-If Fed cuts aggressively here, JPY goes to 120 and every CUSIP has a flash crash, as the carry trade blows up.
-If Fed cuts slowly, then it may just blow everything up anyway, cause the economy is rolling over and the ‘wealth effect’ was the only thing holding it up.
-Meanwhile, we just had a 10-yr auction that effectively failed. So if the Fed cuts at all, they blow up the bond market and the banking sector. They realistically need to raise rates aggressively here to save things (imagine that!!). That’s the EM Dilemma. Which is why DMs do not want to become EMs. Or in other words, ‘they’re fuct!!’
not the main reason i move to nostr but .... 😂
the real black swan is usa yield rise into slow down.
The magic you are looking for is in the work you're avoiding !
The American NIGHTMARE is SOLD to you as the American dream:
•$750/month car payments.
•$150,000 debt for college.
•$10,000 engagement ring.
•$400,000 mortgage.
•$40,000 wedding.
Now you’re a WAGE SLAVE FOR LIFE & STUCK in debt.
The system relies on this.
current federal fiscal deficit is masking slow down in a lot of sectors, government spending has been subsidizing fake job growth, deficit is very stimulative.
No investor alive has seen a US slowdown or recession with 122% US debt/GDP, 7% deficit/GDP, & -80% Net international Investment Position/GDP
The only thing keeping western governments nominally solvent was the inflation that is now fading.
With a total credit card balance of $986 billion and a total limit of $4.5 trillion, U.S. consumer actually have $3.5 trillion in untapped available credit on their cards.
Sam Zell once said: You can have all of the assets in the world you want, but if you have no liquidity it doesn’t matter. Liquidity equals value
health care and college tuitions are biggest scams
Earnings don't move the overall market; it's the Federal Reserve Board, focus on the central banks, and focus on the movement of liquidity, most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It's liquidity that moves markets.
The endgame for the current high-debt environment will likely involve a combination of high fiscal deficit spending, cash and Treasury yields held persistently below the prevailing inflation rate, a trend shift from disinflation to inflation and subsequently currency devaluation
Central Banks have extended their monetary policy toolbox with every crisis since 2008.
Every crisis, they pushed #yields down further and created more #liquidity to contain the elephant in the room: #DEBT
What makes you think this time is different?