Factbox-Major cases before the US Supreme Court this term
==========
The U.S. Supreme Court's current term features major cases involving former President Donald Trump's ballot disqualification, his claim of immunity from prosecution, the abortion pill, gun rights, the power of federal agencies, social media regulation, and Purdue Pharma's bankruptcy settlement. The court has already ruled on cases involving Trump's ballot disqualification and the immunity claim. Cases still to be argued include abortion pill access, Idaho's abortion law, bump stocks, the National Rifle Association's free speech rights, domestic violence gun curbs, South Carolina's electoral map, fish conservation program, consumer watchdog agency's funding, SEC in-house enforcement, social media and government officials, social media content moderation, Purdue Pharma's bankruptcy settlement, homeless encampments, tax on foreign earnings, and a trademark dispute involving the phrase 'Trump Too Small.'
#UsSupremeCourt #DonaldTrump #Abortion #GunRights #FederalAgencies #SocialMediaRegulation #PurduePharma
US probes Stellantis 2022 RAM truck models over K1 snap ring transmission failures
==========
The U.S. Office of Defect Investigations (ODI) has opened a preliminary evaluation of a failure of the K1 snap ring in Stellantis' 2022 RAM 3500, 4500, and 5500 trucks. The investigation was announced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The probe is focused on the transmission failures in the trucks. Stellantis is the parent company of Chrysler. The investigation is in its preliminary stage and no recall has been issued yet.
#Stellantis #RamTrucks #K1SnapRing #TransmissionFailures #OfficeOfDefectInvestigations #NationalHighwayTrafficSafetyAdministration
Gold prices in sight of record highs; copper rebounds on China cues
==========
Gold prices steadied in Asian trade, sitting near record high as traders bought into the yellow metal ahead of more cues on U.S. inflation and interest rates. Copper prices rebounded from recent losses, moving back towards 11-month peaks after reports showed that Chinese copper smelters were proposing output cuts. Gold prices steadied at $2,195.34 an ounce, while expiring in April steadied at $2,215.80 an ounce. Spot prices were just below a record high of $2,222.90 an ounce hit last week. Focus was now squarely on PCE price index data- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- which is due on Friday. Any signs of cooling inflation are likely to trigger strong gains in metal markets, given that they increase the chances of early interest rate cuts. Along with the PCE data, separate addresses from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and FOMC member Mary Daly are also due on Friday. Any signals from the two on interest rate cuts will be closely watched, after other Fed officials struck a somewhat hawkish tone this week. Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $8,913.0 a ton, while one-month U.S. copper futures rose 0.4% to $4.0303 a pound. Major Chinese copper smelters were considering output cuts, and had also set no guidance for copper prices in the second quarter. Reports of Chinese production cuts, which herald tighter markets for refined copper, had triggered sharp gains in copper prices earlier in March, putting them at 11-month highs. But these gains were offset by data showing Chinese copper inventories remained robust, which in turn suggested that markets may not be as tight as initially expected.
#Gold #Copper #China #Inflation #InterestRates
Asian stocks skittish ahead of more US rate cues; Nikkei slides
==========
Asian stocks were skittish ahead of key U.S. inflation data and addresses by Federal Reserve officials. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 1% as several heavyweight stocks traded ex-dividend. Australia's ASX 200 rose as much as 1% to a record high of 7,901.20 points. The index was boosted by broad-based gains and a less hawkish outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Broader Asian stocks kept to a tight range, with Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index recovering mildly from recent losses. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.1% as a rally in technology stocks cooled. India's Nifty 50 index pointed to a mildly negative open.
#AsianStocks #UsRateCues #Nikkei #InflationData #FederalReserve #Asx200 #ReserveBankOfAustralia #ShanghaiShenzhenCsi300 #HangSeng #Kospi #Nifty50
US stock futures edge lower as hawkish Waller cools rate cut hopes
==========
US stock index futures fell slightly in evening deals on Wednesday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller saw markets run out of steam, following a strong session on Wall Street. Waller said there was no hurry for the Fed to cut interest rates now, citing a slew of hotter-than-expected inflation readings in recent months. Overall trading volumes were somewhat muted ahead of the Good Friday holiday. S&P 500 Futures fell 0.1% to 5,304.75 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.1% to 18,485.75 points by 19:16 ET (23:16 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell 0.1% to 40,119.0 points.
#UsStockFutures #RateCutHopes #ChristopherWaller
Impact of the Recession in Germany on the Economies of the EU and Asia
==========
Germany's recession has historically highlighted the country's economic resilience and vulnerability. The recession affects consumer spending, production, and unemployment. Germany's economy is pivotal in the EU and a crucial trade partner to Asian countries. Intra-EU exchanges constitute 53% of Germany's exports, while China is a major non-EU trading partner. A German recession could disrupt trade flows within the EU and send shockwaves through European financial markets. Asian economies with strong ties to Germany could experience decreased exports and disruptions in supply chains. The interconnectedness of global economies highlights the need for vigilant monitoring and adaptive strategies to navigate the complex web of financial relationships.
#Germany #Recession #Eu #Asia #Trade #Economy
US supply chain task force to discuss Baltimore bridge collapse
==========
A U.S. federal supply chain task force will meet on Wednesday to assess the Baltimore bridge collapse and port closure. The Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, collapsed on Tuesday after a freight ship crashed into it, leaving six construction workers presumed dead after falling into the frigid water below. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration did not want financing concerns to hold up bridge reconstruction and that insurance payments would likely be made to cover the costs. The supply chain task force, set up to ease COVID-19-era port blockages, will review the latest information on the Baltimore port situation.
#UsSupplyChain #TaskForce #BaltimoreBridgeCollapse #PortClosure #FrancisScottKeyBridge #FreightShip #ConstructionWorkers #JanetYellen #BidenAdministration #FinancingConcerns #InsurancePayments #SupplyChainTaskForce #Covid19 #PortBlockages
US court keeps Texas border security law on hold in win for Biden
==========
A U.S. appeals court has kept on hold a Republican-backed Texas law that would let state authorities arrest and prosecute people suspected of illegally crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. The law, formally called S.B. 4, has become a flashpoint in a broader battle between Texas and the Biden administration over border security and immigration. The 5th Circuit panel's action was the latest of three rapid-fire rulings on the status of the law. The Biden administration's lawsuit argued that the measure violates the U.S. Constitution and federal law by interfering with the U.S. government's power to regulate immigration. The 5th Circuit panel is scheduled to hear arguments on the merits of the state's appeal on April 3.
#Texas #BorderSecurity #BidenAdministration #Immigration
Column-Nagging thoughts of a stock market correction :Mike Dolan
==========
Trot out almost any macro market metric you care to think of these days and there appears to be a positive twist - at least for record high stock markets that have clocked up more than 10% gains for a first quarter that was marked at the outset by much investor angst and trepidation. U.S. stocks are expensive but not at extremes, it's argued, and earnings forecasts for next year are rising smartly to near 14%. U.S. economic growth is slowing a bit but recession this year now seems far fetched. Still-high interest rates are set to start falling over the summer as somewhat sticky inflation subsides again. And implied volatility gauges in stock, bond and currency markets are unusually subdued. The picture outside the United States may be patchier, but stocks in Europe or Japan are cheaper too and the economic growth nadir in both areas may already have passed. European rates may even start falling before U.S. equivalents. From the trough of last October's bond-related shakeout, the benchmark S&P500 has gained 25% in just 5 months. But the equal-weighted version of the index - which corrects for the outsized performance of leading megacaps - has jumped 23% in that time, Russell 2000 small caps have rebounded 26% and Japanese and euro zone blue chips are up 28% and 25% respectively in dollar terms. The most recent Bank of America global fund manager survey has stock allocations at two-year highs and the highest 'risk appetite' gauges since November 2021. Swiss asset manager Julius Baer's chief investment officer Yves Bonzon said he is starting to wobble on his still-overweight equities position - fearing a combination of herding consensus, a seasonal lull in equity demand over the summer and the upcoming U.S. election uncertainty. A 10-15% correction could happen at any time and would, I'd argue, be healthy. The assumption is that cash stash is there until the Fed finally starts to cut short-term interest rates - and futures have that penciled in for June. Then it starts to stream out to either bonds or equity. If the Fed were to hesitate in easing in the second quarter, then it could be a bumpy summer. AXA Investment Managers' Chris Iggo points out the average return of the S&P 500 in U.S. Presidential election years has been around 11%. And that's what it's done already in 2024. But 'if we are now in a benign growth cycle – then financial market returns could be more like their long-term averages,' he wrote. 'That means slightly higher for bonds than in recent years and slightly less for equities than over the last year. But good overall.'
#StockMarket #Correction #Equities #InterestRates #EconomicGrowth #Volatility #Investors
Exclusive-Russia struggles to collect oil payments as China, UAE, Turkey raise bank scrutiny
==========
Russian oil firms are facing delays of up to several months in receiving payments for crude and fuel as banks in China, Turkey, and the UAE increase their scrutiny due to U.S. secondary sanctions. Several banks in these countries have raised their sanctions compliance requirements, resulting in delays or rejections of money transfers to Moscow. The banks are asking their clients to provide written guarantees that no person or entity from the U.S. SDN list is involved in the deal or is a beneficiary of a payment. The payment delays reduce revenue to the Kremlin and make them erratic, allowing the U.S. to disrupt money going to the Kremlin while not interrupting global energy flows. The increased scrutiny by banks in China, UAE, and Turkey is in response to a U.S. Treasury executive order published on December 22, 2023, warning of the possibility of secondary sanctions on Russia. Chinese, UAE, and Turkish banks have increased checks, asked for extra documentation, and trained more staff to ensure compliance with the price cap imposed by the West on Russian oil. The delays in payments have caused problems for Russian oil firms, with one source reporting a delay of two months for a payment. The payment delays have made it tough for both dollar and direct yuan-rouble transactions to be executed, taking weeks to process.
#Russia #OilPayments #China #Uae #Turkey #BankScrutiny #Sanctions #SecondarySanctions
'Civil War' movie set in near-future US poses questions about politics and journalism
==========
The movie 'Civil War' is a tense thriller set in a near-future United States. It follows a group of journalists, including fictional Reuters photographer Lee (played by Kirsten Dunst) and reporter Joel (played by Wagner Moura), as they document societal collapse and chase a scoop in a conflict-torn country. The film explores the role of journalists and the decline of good journalism, as well as the rise of polarized populist politics. Director Alex Garland wrote the film during the COVID-19 pandemic and the lead-up to the 2020 U.S. presidential election. 'Civil War' will be released globally on April 10.
#CivilWar #Movie #Politics #Journalism #AlexGarland #KirstenDunst #WagnerMoura
Oil prices fall for a second day as US crude inventories increase
==========
Oil prices fell for a second day after US crude inventories surged by 9.3 million barrels. Gasoline stocks, however, fell by 4.4 million barrels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) is unlikely to make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial gathering in June. OPEC+ members agreed to extend their output cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day to the end of June. Russia has ordered companies to cut their output to comply with the target. Iraq's oil ministry also said it would reduce its exports to compensate for earlier overproduction. Traders are watching OPEC members for any sign they may be altering their stance on production quotas.
#OilPrices #UsCrudeInventories #Opec+
US artist Richard Serra, known for enormous steel sculptures, dead at 85
==========
American artist Richard Serra, known for his enormous steel sculptures, has died at the age of 85. Serra, born in San Francisco in 1938, grew up visiting marine shipyards and worked in steel mills in his youth. He was considered a minimalist artist, focusing on the dimensions of his art relative to the viewer. Serra gained recognition in 1969 when he was included in an exhibition at the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum. His work was especially appreciated in Spain, where he had a retrospective at the Reina Sofia museum and an exhibit at the Guggenheim museum in Bilbao. Serra's death was attributed to pneumonia.
#RichardSerra #SteelSculptures #MinimalistArt
Gold’s Long-Term Bullish Trend Still Intact Despite Recent Pullback
==========
Gold's strong trend weakened due to a strong US dollar, causing mild bearish price action. Dollar's strength, driven by external factors and positive US economic indicators, weighed on gold. Despite short-term setbacks, gold's long-term trend remains bullish, with potential for record highs in the future.
Stocks in for Wild Trading Week as Economic Data Tests Fed's Rate Cut Resolution
==========
This week is expected to be volatile for stocks as economic data tests the Federal Reserve's rate cut resolution. On Friday, a PCE report is expected to show a gain of 0.4% in February, pushing the 3-month rate of change up to 3.5% and the 6-month rate of change up to 2.9%. Atlanta Fed Governor Bostic now only sees one rate cut in 2024, down from his previous expectations of 2. The Fed's promise of rate cuts may be more than what is likely to be given, and they may walk back those rate cuts over time. The inflation swaps market is pricing in hotter CPI prints for April and May. Investment grade spreads and high yield spreads are rising, indicating potential tightening of financial conditions. The S&P 500 index is at the upper end of its rising channel and may move lower. The Nasdaq 100 index is in an ascending broadening wedge pattern. It is important to monitor these factors closely.
#Stocks #Trading #EconomicData #FederalReserve #RateCut #PceReport #Inflation #InvestmentGradeSpreads #HighYieldSpreads #S&p500 #Nasdaq100
S&P 500 Earnings: 1 Week Left in Quarter, Q1 '24 Earnings Appear in Good Shape
==========
The forward-quarter S&P 500 EPS estimate for Q1 '24 was $242.89, down from last week's $243.31 and January 1's $243.98. The erosion on the forward estimate over the last 90 days has been less than 1%. The PE ratio for the S&P 500 this week was 21.5x, compared to 21x last week and early January '24. The S&P 500 earnings yield fell almost every week in Q1 '24. The Q4 '23 bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate has risen from $54.69 in early January '24 to $57.11. The Q1 '24 bottom-up S&P 500 EPS estimate is expected to start around $54.90 - $55 per share. Consumer discretionary, real estate, technology, and communication services sectors have seen positive revisions in their growth rates for Q1 '24. Q1 '24 revenue expectations range from +6.9% for real estate to -4.9% for basic materials. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services comprise 50% of the S&P 500 by market cap. Q1 '24 earnings results for the S&P 500 are expected to be solid. The US economy is in reasonably good shape, and S&P 500 earnings are expected to remain in the 5% - 10% growth range. Q4 '23 earnings grew 10.1% instead of the expected 4%. There are no warning flags for Q1 '24 earnings yet.
#S&p500 #Q12024 #Earnings #Estimates #RevenueGrowth #Sectors
Asian stocks skittish ahead of data packed-week, Japan’s Nikkei falls
==========
Asian stocks were skittish ahead of a data-packed week, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 0.7% from record highs. The Nikkei surged to new peaks last week despite the Bank of Japan's first interest rate hike in 17 years, but the prospect of more tightening in Japanese monetary policy weighed on the index. Chinese stocks also fell amid fears of increased US export restrictions and positive government signals. Most other Asian markets were muted, with South Korea's KOSPI falling 0.1% and Malaysian stocks leading losses in Southeast Asia with a 0.5% decline. The ASX 200 in Australia was an outlier, rising 0.6% on strength in mining and bank stocks.
#AsianStocks #Japan'sNikkei #DatapackedWeek #BankOfJapan #InterestRateHike #ChineseStocks #UsExportRestrictions #SouthKorea'sKospi #MalaysianStocks #Asx200
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
==========
Investors will be looking ahead to data due out when markets are closed on Friday for the latest read on U.S. inflation. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are slated to speak and their comments will be closely watched after last week’s dovish remarks by the Fed head. The U.S. is to release the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation when markets are closed for Good Friday. The index, which excludes food and energy costs, is forecast to rise 0.3% in February after posting its biggest monthly increase in a year the prior month. The economic calendar also features data on durable goods orders and the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic and Fed governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller are among some of the Fed officials due to make appearances during the coming week.
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/top-5-things-to-watch-in-markets-in-the-week-ahead-3350677
Biden's $7.3 Trillion Budget Blueprint: A Bold Economic Overhaul for America
==========
President Joe Biden has unveiled a $7.3 trillion budget proposal aimed at reshaping the economic landscape by increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The budget includes social welfare and infrastructure initiatives such as enhanced childcare support, housing development, and law enforcement funding. However, the budget faces resistance from Republicans who criticize it as an overreach in government spending. Biden's budget outlines tax reforms targeting an increase in corporate tax rates and imposing a minimum tax on the ultra-wealthy. The proposed budget is unlikely to be adopted in its current form by Congress. The budget proposal is also a strategic move to establish a contrast with Trump's economic policies, particularly in the areas of tariff increases and deregulation. The budget aims to reduce deficit spending by $3 trillion over the next decade and presents a long-term vision for the U.S. economy. Some analysts suggest that the proposed measures do not go far enough in addressing the fundamental challenges facing the U.S. economy.
#JoeBiden #BudgetProposal #EconomicOverhaul #TaxReforms #CorporateTaxRates #Wealthy #SocialWelfare #Infrastructure #Republicans #Congress #Trump #TariffIncreases #Deregulation #DeficitSpending #U.s.Economy
German investor morale improves, rate cut hopes have 'doping effect', ZEW says
==========
German investor morale improved more than expected in February, with the economic sentiment index rising to 19.9 points from 15.2 points in January, beating expectations of 17.5. Over two-thirds of respondents expect the European Central Bank to make interest rate cuts in the coming six months, and nearly three-quarters are anticipating imminent rate cuts by the U.S. central bank. However, financial markets have been scaling back their bets on rate cuts as inflationary pressures linger and U.S. economic data remains mostly strong. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany fell more than expected to -81.7 points in February from -77.3 points the month before, indicating that the German economy is in a bad place. Economists disagree on what the reading foretells, with one suggesting a recession is on the way and another saying that while the assessment is low, it no longer signals a recession. The German economy contracted by 0.3% in 2023 due to persistent inflation, high energy prices, and weak foreign demand.
#GermanInvestorMorale #InterestRateCuts #Zew #EconomicSentimentIndex #EuropeanCentralBank #U.s.CentralBank #Inflation #GermanEconomy #Recession