Analysis-Unraveling US rate cut bets spur investor portfolio shifts
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Investors are adjusting their portfolios as expectations for US interest rate cuts diminish. Strong economic reports and fears of rebounding inflation have led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve may lower borrowing costs prematurely. Futures markets now show that investors expect rates to fall by just 40 basis points this year, compared to the 150 basis points priced in at the start of 2024. This fading prospect of rate cuts has caused some investors to readjust their portfolios, with equity investors seeking insurance in the options market or investing in inflation hedges such as energy stocks. Bond investors are also repositioning their portfolios amidst a selloff that has hammered Treasury prices. The fading prospect of rate cuts presents a dilemma for market participants who had previously bet on policy easing.
#UsInterestRates #Inflation #FederalReserve #Investors #PortfolioShifts
Analysis-Funds selling options help temper US stock swings
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Assets under derivative income ETFs have grown to about $71 billion from $33 billion at the end of 2022. Some options-selling strategies have tempered stock gyrations and contributed to a long period of market calm. Options-selling ETFs generate income by selling out-of-the-money call options against their stock holdings. Market makers often hedge their exposure to these contracts by selling stock index futures. When markets grind higher, the ETFs buy back the call options they sold, prompting market makers to close their own hedges by buying index futures, thereby supporting stocks. While these strategies moderate market moves, they alone would probably not prevent a selloff if the outlook for stocks radically changes. The presence of volatility-selling funds has been one moderating force in keeping volatility low over the last few years. However, if these strategies were to be hastily unwound, it could lead to increased volatility and uncertainty in the market.
#UsStockMarket #OptionssellingStrategies #Volatility #Etfs #MarketMakers
Deutsche Telekom AG sells $91.66 million of T-Mobile US stock
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Deutsche Telekom AG, a major shareholder and director of T-Mobile US, Inc., has sold approximately $91.66 million worth of T-Mobile US stock. The sales were conducted over several days, with prices ranging from $160.1248 to $161.7908 per share. The transactions were carried out under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. Deutsche Telekom AG's ownership of T-Mobile US stock has decreased as a result of these sales, but it still retains a significant number of shares. Investors monitor insider transactions like these for insights into the company's financial health and future performance.
Biden says he is examining power to shut US border on his own
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President Joe Biden is considering whether he has the authority to shut down the US-Mexico border on his own, as bipartisan legislation on the matter has been stalled by Republicans in Congress. Biden stated that he is examining whether he has the power to do so without legislation, but there is no guarantee. Migration is a central issue in the upcoming presidential campaign, with former President Donald Trump accusing Biden of mishandling border issues.
Biden holds 4 point lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
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U.S. President Joe Biden has marginally widened his lead over Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election as the Republican candidate prepares for the start of the first of four upcoming criminal trials, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Some 41% of registered voters in the five-day poll, which closed on Monday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, compared with 37% who picked former President Trump. The survey has a 4 percentage point margin of error for registered voters and many voters remain on the fence seven months before the Nov. 5 election.
Fedspeak, TSM's new high, HSBC disposal - what's moving markets
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Federal Reserve speakers continue to voice their opinions over potential interest rate cuts ahead of the release of key inflation data. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has hit a new high, while HSBC is set to suffer a big pretax loss as it sells its Argentina unit. Fed funds futures contracts for December reflect expectations of around 60 basis points in rate cuts this year. TSMC shares surged to a record high after receiving a $6.6 billion subsidy for an advanced semiconductor plant. HSBC is selling its Argentina business for $550 million, resulting in a $1 billion pretax loss. Oil prices edged higher on raised uncertainty over a possible ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Special counsel urges US Supreme Court to reject Trump immunity bid
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The special counsel pursuing federal criminal charges against Donald Trump for his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss filed a U.S. Supreme Court brief on Monday urging the justices to reject the former president's bid for immunity from prosecution on the principle that 'no person is above the law.' The case is due to be argued before the justices on April 25. Trump has appealed a lower court's rejection of his request to be shielded from the criminal case brought by Special Counsel Jack Smith because he was serving as president when he took the actions at the center of the case. In his last filing before the arguments, Smith told the justices that Trump's actions that led to the charges, if he is convicted, would represent 'an unprecedented assault on the structure of our government.' Trump, the first former president to be criminally prosecuted, is the Republican candidate challenging Democratic President Joe Biden in the Nov. 5 U.S. election. Biden defeated Trump in 2020. Trump has pleaded not guilty in this case and the three other criminal cases he faces, seeking to paint them as politically motivated.
#DonaldTrump #UsSupremeCourt #ImmunityBid #SpecialCounselJackSmith #CriminalCharges #2020Election #NoPersonIsAboveTheLaw
Pelosi joins call for Biden to stop transfer of US weapons to Israel
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Representative Nancy Pelosi, a key ally of Joe Biden, has signed a letter along with dozens of congressional Democrats urging a halt to weapons transfers to Israel. The letter called on the Biden administration to conduct its own probe into an Israeli airstrike that killed seven staff of the aid group World Central Kitchen. Pelosi's spokesperson clarified that she was sympathetic to the thoughts in the letter and wanted an independent investigation into the killing. The Israeli military has dismissed two officers and reprimanded senior commanders after an inquiry into the aid workers' deaths found serious errors and breaches of procedure. The United Nations has warned of looming famine in Gaza.
#NancyPelosi #JoeBiden #AntonyBlinken #Israel #WeaponsTransfers #Gaza #WorldCentralKitchen #Hamas #UnitedNations
US Republicans urge Ukraine aid vote, after 'Russian propaganda' warnings
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump's secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has joined other prominent Republicans in calling for the passage of billions of dollars in aid for Ukraine. The aid request, which includes $95 billion for Ukraine, Israel, and other allies, has already passed the U.S. Senate with 70% support but has been stalled in the House of Representatives. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has refused to allow a vote on the aid package. Pompeo issued a public letter urging Johnson to bring up the bill for a vote. Some Republican lawmakers have accused aid opponents of succumbing to Russian propaganda, with Representative Michael McCaul stating that Russian propaganda has infected a good chunk of his party's base. Representative Mike Turner also confirmed that Russian propaganda is influencing party members and making it more difficult to see the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as an authoritarian versus democracy battle.
#Ukraine #Republicans #RussianPropaganda #MikePompeo #MikeJohnson #JoeBiden
Consumer inflation in the U.S. in focus amid uncertainty over interest rates
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This week, all eyes are on consumer inflation data in the United States, following a surprisingly strong payroll employment report that indicated a hot labor market. Consensus forecasts predict a monthly increase of 0.3% in March for both the headline CPI and the core CPI. ING aligns with the consensus but cautions that the data is still around double the rate that would bring the YoY rate down to the 2% target. Bank of America expects energy prices to rise slightly faster than seasonal trends. Economists worldwide are eagerly awaiting US inflation data for further clues about the future direction of American monetary policy. Thomas Monteiro, chief strategist at Investing.com, suggests that the recent surge in several commodities makes the data release even more critical for the market. Andrea Damico, chief economist at Armor Capital, highlights that services experienced a rebound in January, followed by a deceleration in February. The situation for goods is different and somewhat troubling, according to Damico. She predicts renewed pressure on the goods side in the March data.
#ConsumerInflation #InterestRates #UsEconomy
Consumer inflation in the U.S. in focus amid uncertainty over interest rates
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This week, all eyes are on consumer inflation data in the United States, following a surprisingly strong payroll employment report that indicated a hot labor market. Consensus forecasts predict a monthly increase of 0.3% in March for both the headline CPI and the core CPI. ING aligns with the consensus but cautions that the data is still around double the rate that would bring the YoY rate down to the 2% target. Bank of America expects energy prices to rise slightly faster than seasonal trends. Economists worldwide are eagerly awaiting US inflation data for further clues about the future direction of American monetary policy. Thomas Monteiro, chief strategist at Investing.com, suggests that the recent surge in several commodities makes the data release even more critical for the market. Andrea Damico, chief economist at Armor Capital, highlights that services experienced a rebound in January, followed by a deceleration in February. The situation for goods is different and somewhat troubling, according to Damico. She predicts renewed pressure on the goods side in the March data.
#ConsumerInflation #InterestRates #UsEconomy
Stocks climb after sizzling US jobs report
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The US labor market continues to perform well, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 303k in March, surpassing forecasts. The unemployment rate fell even as labor force participation rose, suggesting that new workers entering the labor market were easily absorbed. The increase in labor supply diminishes the risk of wage-fueled inflation and could help shield economic growth. Investors scaled back their bets on the timing and depth of Fed rate cuts following the employment report. The dollar initially jumped but erased gains as stock markets soared, driven by optimism that a booming labor market could lead to stronger corporate earnings. Oil prices retreated while gold reached a new record high. Looking ahead, a crucial US inflation report and three central bank meetings are expected to fuel volatility in most assets.
#UsJobsReport #LaborMarket #NonfarmPayrolls #UnemploymentRate #WageGrowth #FedRateCuts #Dollar #StockMarkets #CorporateEarnings #OilPrices #GoldPrices #InflationReport #CentralBankMeetings
https://www.investing.com/analysis/stocks-climb-after-sizzling-us-jobs-report-200647450
US stock futures creep higher with inflation, earnings on tap
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US stock index futures rose after Wall Street bounced past hotter-than-expected payrolls data. Traders scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as soon as June. S&P 500 Futures rose 0.1% to 5,258.0 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures rose 0.1% to 18,318.50 points. Dow Jones Futures rose 0.16% to 39,286.0 points. Wall Street indexes ended higher on Friday despite the stronger-than-expected payrolls data. Focus is now on CPI data for March, due on Wednesday. The reading is expected to show some cooling in inflation but remain well above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target. Q1 earnings season begins this week, with major U.S. lenders and asset managers reporting. Inflation is expected to rise for a third time since December. Weekly charts point to a recession/black swan event. Institutions have been selling into the rally harder than in the past 3 years. Wednesday's CPI Index estimate is at 312.18, up from 310.33, equating to an annual inflation rate of +7.15%.
#UsStockFutures #Inflation #Earnings #FederalReserve #Cpi #Q1EarningsSeason
Morning Bid: Markets eye consolidation, not capitulation
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Asian markets are optimistic after forecast-busting U.S. job growth figures sparked a rise on Wall Street. Japan's Nikkei 225 aims to bounce back from a 2% slide on Friday. Geopolitical tensions continue to push gold to a record high of $2,330 an ounce. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen completed a four-day visit to China, discussing economic growth and bilateral relations. The Philippine central bank is expected to keep its key policy rate on hold at 6.50%. Key developments on Monday include the Philippines central bank policy meeting, Japan trade and current account figures, and Malaysia industrial production.
#AsianMarkets #UsJobGrowth #WallStreet #Japan #Nikkei225 #Gold #UsTreasurySecretary #JanetYellen #China #PhilippineCentralBank
Man arrested for setting fire to US Sen. Bernie Sanders' office door in Vermont
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A man named Shant Soghomonian, 35, was arrested for setting fire to the office door of US Senator Bernie Sanders in Burlington, Vermont. Soghomonian entered the building on Friday and was recorded on security cameras spraying a liquid near the door and setting it alight. Sprinklers went off on multiple floors as he left the building. There were no injuries, but the door and surrounding areas were damaged. Sanders is a long-serving independent senator from Vermont.
#BernieSanders #Arson #Vermont
US Powerball jackpot grows to $1.3 billion ahead of Saturday draw
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The US Powerball jackpot has grown to $1.3 billion, making it the eighth largest lottery jackpot in US history. The drawing is set for Saturday night at 11 p.m. EDT. The last Powerball winner hit the jackpot on New Year's Day, and the chances of winning are one in 292.2 million. The prize is the fourth-largest Powerball jackpot and is a little more than half of the largest ever in US lottery jackpot history. Powerball tickets are sold in 45 states, the District of Columbia, the US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Trump says $50 million raised from biggest fundraiser yet
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Former President Donald Trump's campaign raised $50.5 million from a major fundraiser in Florida, his biggest fundraiser yet, as he seeks to replenish his campaign funds for his rematch against Democrat Joe Biden. The event, hosted at billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson's Palm Beach home, included co-hosts such as hedge-fund investor Robert Mercer, his daughter Rebekah, investor Scott Bessent, and casino mogul Phil Ruffin. The money raised will be allocated to a fundraising group that has spent tens of millions of dollars on Trump's legal fees. Trump's campaign emphasized that the amount raised was double what Biden raised last month in a star-studded fundraiser. The numbers will be confirmed when filings are submitted to the Federal Election Commission. Trump's campaign previously stated that it would be unable to match Biden's fundraising totals this year.
#DonaldTrump #Fundraiser #CampaignFunds #JoeBiden #JohnPaulson #RobertMercer #RebekahMercer #ScottBessent #PhilRuffin
US, Japan, Australia and Philippines to hold South China Sea exercises
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The defense forces of the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines will conduct maritime cooperative activity on April 7 in the South China Sea. The one-day exercises will involve communication activities and officer of the watch maneuvers in Manila's exclusive economic zone. The participating countries aim to support a free and open Indo-Pacific amid China's growing assertiveness in the waterway. The activity will strengthen the interoperability of the countries' armed forces doctrines, tactics, techniques, and procedures. The four nations have reaffirmed their position that the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Tribunal Award is final and legally binding. The maritime activity takes place days before a summit between the leaders of Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines, which will include a discussion of recent incidents in the South China Sea.
US on high alert for Iran threat in region after Israeli strike in Syria
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The United States is on high alert and preparing for a possible attack by Iran targeting Israeli or American assets in the region in response to Israel's strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria. Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Damascus on Monday, killing an Iranian military commander. Iran has said it reserves the right "to take a decisive response." U.S. President Joe Biden discussed the threat from Iran in a phone call on Thursday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
#Us #Iran #Israel #Syria #Attack #Tensions
Apple asks US appeals court to reverse Apple Watch import ban
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Apple has asked the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit to overturn a ban on the import of some Apple Watches imposed by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) in a patent dispute with medical-monitoring technology company Masimo. Apple argues that the ITC's decision was based on flawed patent rulings and that Masimo failed to demonstrate investment in competing US products. Masimo had accused Apple of hiring its employees and stealing its pulse oximetry technology. The ban, which temporarily halted sales of the watches, was reinstated in January.
#Apple #AppleWatch #ImportBan #PatentDispute #Masimo #UsInternationalTradeCommission