It is not speculation that there was a collision on the runway. The two most likely causes are pilot error, or ATC error. There is a small chance that the brakes on the coast guard plane failed and that it rolled onto the runway; however, both the pilot and ATC should have noticed that long before the A350 collided with it.
As for statistics, the FAA reports 1760 runway incursions in FY23, 1730 in FY22 and 1574 in FY21. That is a number that should be going down, not up.
https://www.faa.gov/airports/runway_safety/statistics/
CNN reports 7 close calls "this year" reporting in March of 2023.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/11/politics/close-calls-airplanes-runways-what-matters/index.html
Since March there have been others, including a collision between two private jets.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/us/houston-hobby-airport-grounded-flights-jets-collision/index.html
From: Peter1187<-mazin at 01/02 10:01
> As usual we will have to wait for the official report. It is too early to speculate. Do you have an statistics that collissions on runways are becoming more frequent lately?
CC: #[4]
Well, I meant speculations about the root causes, not if there was a runway collission.
Thanks for your links: In 2019 the number was 1753. So it seems the numbers are just "back to normal" after some years with low number of flights.
The ICAO runway safety statistics end at 2010, unfortunately: https://www.icao.int/safety/RunwaySafety/Pages/Statistics.aspx
I will check the yearly reports.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/21/business/airline-safety-close-calls.html
From: Peter1187<-mazin at 01/02 10:26
> Well, I meant speculations about the root causes, not if there was a runway collission.
> Thanks for your links: In 2019 the number was 1753. So it seems the numbers are just "back to normal" after some years with low number of flights.
> The ICAO runway safety statistics end at 2010, unfortunately: https://www.icao.int/safety/RunwaySafety/Pages/Statistics.aspx
> I will check the yearly reports.
CC: #[4]
Thanks for the link, interesting read.
The situation in Europe might be similar, at least I know that we have a shortage of air traffice controllers here as well. However, I have no idea how the situation is in Japan.
