I haven't seen 2 sats/vbyte in a long time, is there any known major/macro reason why fees are so low right now? Everywhere I look it seems like adoption is growing but fees tell a very different story.

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Replying bc I want to know too

It's all off-chain. People buying and hodling on exchanges, ETFs, transacting with lightning. Good for scaling but...don't forget to self-custody.

But is that different than say.. six months ago? That's my confusion.

Hmm....good question. Fees do look exceptionally low for about the last 6 months actually, ignoring spikes. https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/block-fee-rates#2y

Now I want an answer!

This

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Also, I'm thinking that most people these days are getting started on Lightning which keeps transactions off the base layer.

In the previous cycle, adoption was on-chain first, and maybe play with lightning later. In the cycle before that, lightning was barely being born.

This cycle, folks are getting their exposure to Bitcoin via lightning first, and maybe on-chain later, when they start building up a balance. Therefore, there isn't much on-chain demand, and all the ordinals nonsense has died down quite a bit, so even that isn't driving chain usage.