Mempool.space should redesign the fees section.

Not sure how though, but if you set lower fees it doesn’t mean your transaction will go though later.

How does one express this in a better way?

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What about like a percentage chance it's included in a particular block? As the average fee or fee range rises, your chance goes down.

Maybe.

I honestly can’t think of a better way. But the only thing I’m certain of is that it’s not what we currently have.

The maximum time is infinity: your transaction may never clear.

The minimum time is defined by how many vbytes of higher-fee transactions are ahead of you in the mempool.

But the number of vbytes ahead of a transaction is variable. And that is not accounted for.

At any given time, one knows how many vbytes of higher-paying transactions is already in the pool. One cannot know how many bytes will arrive in the future. The best one could do is estimate (model) based on historical data.

If it was me, I’d come up with threshold estimates. For example, statements like “to have a 50% chance of getting in within 10 blocks, you’d have to pay 101 sats/vbyte”.

Starting from this, you could make a table of estimates where one axis is the likelihood of getting in (50%, 75%, 90%, 95%, 99%) and the other axis is the number of blocks (1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50). I each cell of the table, put the sats vbyte, then color code for visibility.

It would look something like this BMI chart, with curves of color. .jpeg

It should be displayed vertically instead of horizontally. When new tx are broadcast, they should fly “into the queue” from offscreen, bumping your tx down, if it’s a lower fee.

That might look better. But we should also get rid of language like ETA. There is no ETA.